2023年全球電力年中洞察

GlobalElectricity

Mid-YearInsights2023

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Copyright?Ember,2023

Contents

6 ExecutiveSummary

10 GlobalAnalysis

10 GlobalpowersectoremissionsplateauedinH1-2023

13 Globalhydrooutputseeshistoricfall

17 Windandsolarcontinuetoincreasetheirshareintheglobalpower

mix

24 Lowdemandgrowthworldwide

26 Countryandregionanalysis

26 China

30 UnitedStates

32 EuropeanUnion

35 India

37 Japan

40 Conclusion

42 Supportingmaterials

Highlights

+12% -8.5% +0.1%

Globalwindandsolargenerationincrease

+0.2%

Globalpowersectoremissionsincrease

Globalhydrogenerationdecrease

Globalfossilfuelgenerationincrease

ExecutiveSummary

Globalpowersectoremissionsplateauedaswindandsolarcontinuetogrow

However,adversehydroconditions–likelyexacerbatedbyclimatechange–preventedemissionsfromfallinginthefirsthalfof2023.

Powersectoremissionsplateauedinthefirsthalfof2023,withaslightincreaseof0.2%comparedtothesameperiodlastyear,aswindandsolarcontinuetogrow.Windandsolarweretheonlyelectricitysourcesthatsignificantlyincreasedboththeirgenerationaswellasshareintheglobalpowermix.Despitethis,adversehydroconditions–likelyexacerbatedbyclimatechange–preventedemissionsfromfalling.Thedeficitcreatedbyhydro,particularlyinChina,ledtoasmallincreaseinfossilfuels.However,lowelectricitydemandhelpedtosuppressfurtheremissionsgrowthatagloballevelbyreducingtheconsumptionoffossilfuels.FallsindemandledtosignificantemissionsfallsintheEuropeanUnion,UnitedStates,JapanandSouthKorea,whilemoderatedemandgrowthinIndialedtosloweremissionsgrowth.

01

Globalpowersectoremissionsplateaued

Globalemissionsfromthepowersectorroseonly0.2%(+12milliontonnesofCO2)inthefirsthalfof2023whencomparedtothesameperiodlastyear.MajorfallsinemissionswereseenintheEU(-17%),

Japan(-12%),theUS(-8.6%)andSouthKorea(-3%),asaresultoffallsincoalgeneration–mostnotablyintheUS(-27%)andEU

(-23%),butalsoinJapan(-7.4%)andSouthKorea(-2.5%).AslowerincreaseinemissionswasseeninIndia,withanincreaseof3.7%inthefirsthalfof2023versus9.7%inthesameperiodlastyear.Powersectoremissionsroseby7.9%inChinaduetoarecordfallinhydrogeneration.

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02

50countrieshitnewsolarrecords

Windandsolarweretheonlytwoelectricitysourcesthatsignificantlyincreasedtheirshareofglobalelectricity,risingto14.3%inthefirsthalfof2023,comparedto12.8%inthesameperiodlastyear.However,theirgenerationgrewmoreslowlythaninthesameperiodlastyear.Windgrew10%inthefirsthalfof2023,comparedto16%inthesameperiodlastyear.Solargrewby16%,compared

to26%inthefirsthalfof2022.Acrosstheglobe,50countriessetnewmonthlysolargenerationrecordsinthefirsthalfof2023.Chinacontinuestobetheleaderinsolargeneration,providing

43%ofglobalgrowthinsolargeneration,whiletheEU,USandIndiaaccountedforabout12%each.

03

Historicfallinglobalhydrooutput

Hydrogeneration,thelargestelectricitysourceamongallrenewables,fellsignificantly(-8.5%,-177TWh)inthefirsthalfof2023duetodroughts.ThiswasespeciallynotableinChinawhichaccountedforaroundthree-quartersoftheglobalfall.Fossilgenerationincreasedslightlytomeetthedeficitcreatedbyhydro.Powersectoremissionswouldhavefallenby2.9%hadglobalhydrogenerationbeenatthesamelevelaslastyear.

04

Lowdemandgrowthworldwide

Globalelectricitydemandroseonly0.4%inthefirsthalfof2023comparedtothesameperiodlastyear,whichismuchlowerthantheaverageannualgrowthbetween2012and2022of2.6%.Fallsindemandinhigh-incomeeconomieswereamajordriver,includinginJapan(-5.6%),theEU(-4.6%),theUS(-3.4%)andSouthKorea

(-1.4%)wherethisledtoanoverallfallinfossilfuels.Lower-than-expecteddemandgrowthinIndiaof3.1%,comparedtoa10.7%increaseinthesameperiodlastyear,wasanotherfactorloweringglobaldemand.

Fossilfuelsandemissionswouldhavefalleninthefirsthalfof2023ifweren’tforahistoricfallinhydrogenerationduetodroughts.Itisunclearwhetherthesituationwillimproveintherestoftheyear.Fornow,theturningpointforthepowersectorremainshanginginthebalance.

Nonetheless,itisclearfromthelatestglobaldataonelectricitygenerationthattheworldisnearingthepointoffallingpowersectoremissions.Earlierthisyear,

Ember’sanalysis

showedthat2023maybethefirstyearwithstructurallyfallingglobalemissionsfromthepowersector,ifcleanpowergrowthcontinues.Beforethispoint,powersectoremissionshavebeenstructurallyrising,andtherehaveonlyeverbeenfallsduringglobaleconomicshockssuchasthe2008financialcrisisorthe2020Covid-19pandemic.Itstillremainstooclosetocallwhetherpowersectoremissionswillfallacrossthefullyearin2023.

Reaching‘peak’fossilemissionsinthepowersectorisacrucialmilestoneintheglobaltransitiontoaclean,electrifiedeconomy.Butthemostcriticalpartiswhathappensnext.Toachievetherapiddeclinesinemissionsrequiredthisdecade,thereneedstobearapidaccelerationinthedeploymentofwindandsolarpower.Triplingglobalrenewablecapacityby2030isthesinglebiggestactionthatgovernmentscantaketoputtheworldoncoursefora1.5Calignedpathway.

“It’sstillhanginginthebalanceif2023willseeafallinpowersectoremissions.Whileitisencouragingtoseetheremarkablegrowthofwindandsolarenergy,wecan’tignorethestarkrealityofadversehydroconditionsintensifiedbyclimatechange.Theworldisteeteringatthepeakofpowersectoremissions,andwenowneedtounleashthemomentumforarapiddeclineinfossilfuelsbysecuringaglobalagreementtotriplerenewablescapacitythisdecade.”

MalgorzataWiatros-Motyka

SeniorElectricityAnalyst,Ember

“Themessageissimple:triplingrenewableenergycapacityby2030istheclearroutetoreducingemissionsfromthepowersector,alongwithbuildinganewenergysystemthatdeliversclean,secureandjustpowertotheworld.Withhydroconditionsnowbeingaffectedbyclimatechange,thechallengetoworldleadersandpolicymakersisgrowing;COP28isthetimefortheworldtorisetothatchallengeanddeliveracleartargetoftriplingrenewablecapacitybytheendofthedecadeandsettheworldonthecoursefornetzeroby2050”

BruceDouglas

CEO,GlobalRenewablesAlliance

Chapter1|GlobalAnalysis

Globalpowersectoremissionsplateaued

Globalpowersectoremissionsremainedalmostunchangedinthefirsthalfof2023,aswindandsolarcontinuedtoincreasetheirshareintheworld’spowermix.However,adversehydroconditions–likelyexacerbatedbyclimatechange–preventedemissionsfromfallinginthefirsthalfof2023.

GlobalpowersectoremissionsplateauedinH1-2023

Theglobalpowersectorproduced5,795milliontonnesofcarbondioxide(mtCO2)inthefirsthalfof2023,almostunchangedfromthesameperiodlastyear,withaslightincreaseof0.2%(+12mtCO2).

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Theplateauin2023isnotable.Historically,powersectoremissionshavebeenrisingstructurally.Therehaveonlyeverbeenfallsduringglobaleconomicshockssuchasthe2008financialcrisisorthe2020Covid-19pandemic.

Majorhigh-incomeeconomiessawsomeofthebiggestfallsinemissions.EmissionsfellintheEUby17%(-59mtCO2),intheUSby8.6%(-64mtCO2),inJapanby12%(-25mtCO2)andinSouthKoreaby3%(-3.6mtCO2).Indiasawaslowerincreaseinemissions,withemissionsrisingby3.7%(+19mtCO2)inthefirsthalfof2023comparedtoa9.7%increase(+45mtCO2)inthesameperiodlastyear.InChinaemissionsroseby7.9%(+173mtCO2),inlargepartduetopoorhydroconditions.

Globalfossilgenerationremainedalmostunchanged

Fossilfuelsgenerated59.9%ofglobalelectricityinthefirsthalfof2023(8,100TWh),comparedto60.1%inthesameperiodlastyear(8,091TWh).

Globalfossilfuelgenerationremainedalmostunchanged,risingbyonly0.1%(+9TWh)inthefirsthalfof2023,comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Coal

generationincreasedby1%(+47TWh),gasgenerationroseby0.5%(+14TWh)butotherfossilfuel(mainlyoil)generationfell15%(-52TWh).Changesattheregionalandcountrylevelvariedsignificantly.

JapanandtheEUweretheonlytwohigh-income,high-pollutingeconomiesthatsawafallinbothcoalandgas.Incontrast,intheUScoalfellbutgasgenerationincreased.

Coalgenerationfellinsomemajorhigh-incomeeconomiesinthefirsthalfof2023:theEU(-23%,-49TWh),theUS(-27%,-112TWh),Japan(-7.4%,-10TWh)andSouthKorea(-2.5%,-2.2TWh).Thesefallsweredrivenbythefallsinelectricitydemandinthesecountries,andintheUSalsobecauseofthecoal-to-gasswitch.

Elsewhere,coalfellinChile(-33%,-3.8TWh)despitedemandslightlyincreasing(+0.5%,+0.2TWh).CoalgenerationalsodecreasedinSouthAfrica(-9.8%,-10TWh.Incontrast,coalgenerationincreasedinChina(+8%,+203TWh)andIndia(+3.8%,

+23TWh)andsomeotherdevelopingnations.

GasgenerationfellintheEU(-13%,-33TWh).GasgenerationalsofellinJapan

(-17%,-28TWh),andinIndia(-3.4%,-0.5TWh),butincreasedintheUS(+8.1%,+61TWh)andinChina(+8%,+9.7TWh).IntheUS,gasgenerationhasbeenincreasingsince2005whilecoalhasbeendeclining,atrendthat

isexpectedtocontinue

atleastinthenear-term.

Generationfromotherfossilfuels,mainlyoil,fellglobally,withfallsincludingtheEU(-12%,-3.8TWh),Japan(-22%,-6.1TWh)andtheUS(-8.5%,-1.6TWh)amongmanyothercountries.

Globalhydrooutputseeshistoricfall

Thefirsthalfof2023sawahistoricdeclineinglobalhydrogenerationof8.5%(-177TWh),causedbydroughtswhichwerelikelyexacerbatedbyclimatechange.ThefallinthesixmonthstoJunewaslargerthananydeclinerecordedacrossafullyearinthelasttwodecades.Three-quartersofthefallcamefromChina(-129TWh).Asaresult,hydrogenerated14%(1,898TWh)ofglobalelectricityinthefirsthalfof2023,comparedtoashareof15%(2,075TWh)inthesameperiodlastyear.

Theadversehydroconditionspreventedafallinglobalpowersectoremissions.HadhydrogenerationremainedatthesamelevelsseeninH1-2022,fossilgenerationwouldhavenothadtocompensateforthehydrodeficitof177TWh.Insteadofasmallrise,fossilgenerationwouldhavefallen168TWh,leadingtoafallinpowersectoremissionsof2.9%(-119milliontonnesofCO2).

Thedeclineinhydrocamedespiteadditionsinhydrocapacity,asaresultofworsehydroconditionsinChina,theUS,Indiaandothercountries.Thisisevidentinthecapacityfactor,whichshowstheactualoutputrelativetothetheoreticallimitoftheexistingcapacity.Thefirsthalfof2023sawdramaticfallsintheglobalcapacityfactorofhydrogeneration,whichfellto35.6%,nearlyfourpercentagepointslowerthaninH1-2022.Althoughthecapacityfactorforhydrofluctuatessignificantlybetweenthefirstandsecondhalfoftheyearduetoseasonalvariations,H1-2023representsadramaticfallcomparedtohistoricalvalues.Acrossthelast10years,theaverageglobalcapacityfactorwas40.9%.Thisnewlowin2023comesaftertheglobalhydrocapacityfactoralreadyhittwoconsecutiveall-timeannuallowsin2021(39.6%)and2022(39.4%).

ThehydroissueswereparticularlynotableinChina,where

lastyear’sdroughts

and

ongoingheatwavesin2023

affected

reservoirlevels

andhydrooutput.

China’shydrocapacityfactorfellto30.5%inH1-2023,tenpercentagepointsbelowthefirsthalfoflastyearandthelowestvalueseensinceatleast2015.WithChinarepresentingnearlyathirdoftheworld’shydrogeneration(30%in2022),conditionsinChinastronglyinfluenceglobalhydrooutput.

2023asawholeislikelytosetarecordforthelowestglobalhydrocapacityfactorinrecordedhistoryifconditionsdon’tsubstantiallyimproveinthesecondhalfoftheyear.

Uncertaintyaroundstructuraldeclineinhydroconditions

Thegloballongtermoutlookontheeffectofclimatechangeonhydrooutputisuncertainaseffectsofclimatechangeonhydropotentialaregeographically

varied.Changesinrainfallpatternsandintensityaswellasincreasedevaporationwillaffecthydrooutputbothpositivelyandnegativelydependingontheregion.TheIPCC’sAR6WGIIreportstatesthatby2080,climateconditionscouldaffectproductionbetween+5%and-5%underahighemissionsscenario.WhilecentralAfrica,India,centralAsiaandnorthernhighlatitudesareexpectedtohavehigherhydropowerpotential,southernEurope,thesouthernUSandotherscouldseetheirhydropotentialworsen.

Manycountriesareexperiencinglowerhydrooutputthanatthestartofthecentury.Recentyearshavebeenmarkedbyperiodsofdroughtsandreducedhydrooutput,notablyinChina,Europe,andotherregions.

However,thehistoricallong-termtrendregardingglobalhydroconditionsremainsambiguous,withsignificantregionaldisparitiesintheimpactsofstructuralfactorslikeclimatechangeonhydroconditions.

Itistruethattheglobalcapacityfactorforhydrohasseenaslightdownwardtrendinthelasttwodecades.However,atthesametime,India,Russia,SwedenandChinahaveseentheircapacityfactorincreaseoverthistimeperiod,thelatterevenholdswhenaccountingforChina’srecentdownturn.Consequently,itisdifficulttopredictfuturetrendsforhydrogenerationatagloballevel.

Whatthehydrolowsmeanfortheelectricitytransition

Thisyear’srecordfallinhydrogenerationisawarningshotthathydrooutputcouldnegativelyaffectthespeedoftheelectricitytransition.

Inthe

IEA’snetzeroscenario

,hydrogenerationwouldhavetoriseby4%annuallyfrom2021to2030tobeontrackfornetzeroemissionsby2050.However,thishasnotbeenmetineither2021(-2.2%),2022(+1.3%)orH1-2023(-8.5%).

Whenhydrogenerationremainsbelowexpectations,itleavesadeficitthatnewlow-carbonelectricity(mostlywindandsolar)hastomakeupforinaddition

tomeetingadditionalelectricitydemandandreplacingfossilfuels.Onlywhensourceslikewindandsolargrowfastenoughtoovercomeboththeuncertaintyofoutputfromothercleansourcesaswellasgrowingelectricitydemandwillweseesubstantialreductionsinfossilgenerationandemissions.

Windandsolarcontinuetoincreasetheirshareintheglobalpowermix

Windandsolarweretheonlytwoelectricitysourcesthatsignificantlyincreasedtheirshareintheglobalpowermix.Togetherwindandsolargenerated14.3%

ofglobalelectricityinthefirsthalfof2023(1,930TWh),a1.5percentagepointsincreasefromthesameperiodlastyear,whentheygenerated12.8%ofglobalelectricity(1,717TWh).Inthefirsthalfof2023,5.5%ofglobalelectricitycamefromsolarand8.8%fromwind.

Globally,windandsolarbothgrewinH1-2023comparedtothesameperiodlastyear,althoughataslowerratethantheydidlastyear.Windgenerationincreasedby10%,lowerthanthegrowthinthesameperiodlastyear(+16%).Solargeneration

rose16%,alsolowerthanthe26%increaseinthesameperiodyear.Suchincreasesarebelowthegrowthneededfornetzero,whichrequiresayearlyaveragegrowthof17%forwindand24%forsolar,accordingtothe

IEA’snetzeroscenario.

Inabsoluteterms,windandsolargainalsoremainedbelowlastyear’slevel:solargrewby104TWhcomparedto132TWhinthesameperiodlastyear.Windgenerationincreasedby109TWhcomparedtogainsof147TWhinthesameperiodlastyear.

Chinaremainsagloballeaderinwindandsolar

Chinaaccountedfor91%ofglobalgrowthinwindpowerand43%ofglobalgrowthinsolargenerationinthefirsthalfof2023.ThenextlargestcontributorsweretheEUandIndia,whoeachaccountedfor12%ofglobalgrowthinsolargeneration.

TheEU,USandJapanarelaggingbehindChina’sprogressonwindgeneration.Chinaachieveda26%growthinwindgenerationinthefirsthalfof2023comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Incomparison,windgenerationonlygrew4.8%intheEU,whileJapanrecordedonlya2.4%increasefromanalreadylowbaseline.TheUSsawwindgenerationfall5.6%duetopoorwindconditions.

Similartowind,theEU,USandJapanarealsolaggingbehindChina’sprogressonnewsolargeneration.China’ssolargenerationgrewby21%inthefirsthalfof2023comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.India,however,hadanevenhighergrowthrate(+26%)inthefirsthalfof2023,butfromamuchlowerbasethanChina.Incomparison,solargenerationgrewonly13%inboththeEUandtheUS,whileitfellinJapanby2%.

Solargenerationgrowthlowerthanexpectedgivencapacityadditions

Basedoncapacityadditionestimatesbythe

IEA

,itwouldhavebeenexpectedthatsolargenerationwouldincreasebyaround140-160TWhinthefirsthalfof2023.

Therefore,theactualobservedincreaseinsolargenerationof104TWhis26-35%belowtheexpectation.

Thedifferenceinexpectationscomparedtoactualgrowthcanpartiallybeexplainedbyweatherconditions.Anotherpossiblereasonisanincreaseinunmeasuredbehind-the-metrecapacitybeinginstalledonrooftops,whichcanleadtolowerreporteddemandaswellasunderreportinginactualsolargenerationandgrowth.

50countrieshitnewmonthlyrecordsforsolargeneration

Despiteslower-than-expectedsolargenerationgrowth,50countriesacrosstheglobeexperiencednewmonthlyrecordsforsolargenerationinthefirsthalfof2023.

InAsia,ChinaandIndiawereamongthosewithnewmonthlyrecords.Forexample,Chinagenerated50TWh(6.4%ofitselectricity)fromsolarinJune2023,anincreaseof9.7TWhwhencomparedtoJune2022.TheelectricitygeneratedfromsolarinChinainjustthemonthofJune(50TWh)wouldbeenoughtopowera

countrylikeNewZealand,QatarorHungaryforawholeyear.IndiaachievedanewrecordinMay2023,generating10.8TWh(7.3%ofitselectricity)fromsolar,anincreaseof2TWhcomparedtoMay2022.

IntheEU,24ofthebloc’s27memberssawnewsolarhighsasofJune.Forexample,theNetherlandsgenerated3.5TWh(36%)fromsolarinJune2023,comparedto

2.3TWhinMay2022,whilePolandgenerated1.9TWh(16%)inMay2023,comparedto1.2TWhinMay2022.RecordswerealsobrokenintheUS,Mexico,BrazilandChile,amongmanyothersintheAmericasandaroundtheglobe.Forexample,theUSgenerated26TWh(7%ofitselectricity)fromsolarinJune2023,comparedto22TWhinJune2022.Chilegenerated1.7TWh(24%)fromsolarinJanuary2023,comparedto1.3TWhinJanuary2022.

Slowdowninglobalcapacityadditionsforwindpower

Incontrasttothesteadygrowthinannualsolarcapacityadditions,windcapacityadditionsarenottrendingupwards.Afterpeakingin2020,windcapacityadditionsweresmallerinthefollowingtwoconsecutiveyears.In2020,111GWofwindcapacitywasinstalledworldwide,comparedto92GWin2021and73GWin2022.

Asaresult,thegrowthinwindgenerationhasslowedinrecentyears.2021sawthelargestgrowthinwindgenerationinhistory(+268TWh),butthisslowedin2022(+251TWh)andthefirsthalfof2023hasseenanincreaseof109TWhinnewwindgenerationincomparisontolastyear.

Amongmajoreconomies,theEU,theUS,andJapanarelaggingbehindonwindgrowthwhileChinawasresponsiblefor91%oftheglobalgrowthinwindgenerationinthefirsthalfof2023.

Therearesignificantbarriersholdingbackwinddeploymentinmanypartsoftheworld,includingpermittingandgridconnectiondelays.Additionally,asexpected,temporaryweatherconditionsaffectedwindgenerationinsomecountries,notablyintheUSinthefirsthalfof2023,wherewindgenerationfellby5.6%(-13TWh).Itisclearthatmanygovernmentsneedtotakeactiontospeedupadditionsinwind.

Windandsolaradditionspreventedmajoremissionsincrease

WindandsolaradditionscontinuetobethemaindriveroftheelectricitytransitionasadditionsinH1-2023avoided142milliontonnesofCO2emissions.

InH1-2023,windandsolargenerationincreasedby213TWhcomparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Thisuptickmetalloftheriseinelectricitydemandandcompensatedforsomeofthedeclineinhydrogeneration.Withoutthis

contributionfromwindandsolar,theshortfallwouldhavebeenmetbyfossilfuels,resultinginahigheremissionincrease.Insteadofa0.2%increaseinpowersectoremissions,equivalentto12milliontonnesofCO2,theincreasewouldhavebeen2.6%,or154milliontonnes.Duetothegrowthinwindandsolargeneration,thepotentialemissionsincreasewasreducedby92%(-142milliontonnesofCO2),whichisequivalenttomorethanthetotalpowersectoremissionsofSouthKoreainH1-2023.

ThisdynamicisespeciallyevidentinChina.Withoutwindandsolaradditionsmeetingthe6%increaseinelectricitydemand,fossilfuelswouldhavemetthedemandincreaseinstead,resultinginanemissionsincreaseof285milliontonnesofCO2(+13%).Instead,China’spowersectoremissionsroseby173milliontonnesofCO2(+7.9%).

InIndia,windandsolargrowthpreventedanincreaseof11milliontonnesofemissions.Powersectoremissionsroseby19milliontonnesofCO2(+3.7%),insteadofapotential30milliontonnesofCO2(+5.7%)ifwindandsolarhadremainedatthesamelevelasinH1-2022.

IntheEU,powersectoremissionsfell,aslowerdemandreducedtheneedforsomefossilgeneration.Additionsinwindandsolarreducedfossilgenerationfurther.Emissionsfellby17%(-59milliontonnesofCO2).Withoutwindandsolaradditions,theywouldhavefallenby13%(-44milliontonnesofCO2).

Lowdemandgrowthworldwide

Globalelectricitydemandroseonly0.4%(+59TWh)inthefirsthalfof2023;amuchlowerrisethan2.8%inthesameperiodlastyear.Theincreaseisalsolowerthantheyearlyhistoricalaverageoverthelastdecadeof2.6%.Suchlowgrowthwasdrivenbydemandfallsinanumberofmatureeconomies,andbylowerthanexpecteddemandgrowthinIndia.Electricitydemandfellby5.6%inJapan,4.6%intheEU,3.4%intheUSand1.4%inSouthKorea.Suchfallsindemandcontributedtoreducingemissionsineachofthesecountriesandtoflatteningemissionsatthegloballevel.

Demandfallsinhighincomeeconomieswereduetovaryingreasons.IntheEU,theelectricitydemandfallshavecontinuedsinceMarch2022inthewakeofRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.Thefallinthefirsthalfof2023islargerthanthefallsdueto

theCovid-19pandemicin2020.Since2022,thedemandfallscanbeattributedtoacombinationoffactors:

policymeasures

aimedtoreducedemandamidsttheenergycrisisandsecurityoffossilgassupplyconcerns,alargecutbyenergy-intensiveindustries,mildweatherinwinter,andreducedpersonalelectricityuse

duetoacostoflivingcrisis.Under-reportingofbehind-the-metersolargenerationisalsoleadingtosomemisattribution,showingelectricitydemandfalling,insteadofsolarrising.ThisisaprobleminmanyEuropeancountries,madeapparentbytheunprecedentedsurgeinnewrooftopsolarinstallations.IntheUS,demandfelldueto

slowereconomicactivityandmilderweather.

InJapan,demandfellduetomilderweatherbutalsoduetosome

electricitysavingmeasures.

DemandincreasedinChinaandIndiaasthesecountriescontinuetoadvance

theireconomies.InChina,electricitydemandincreasedby6%,inlinewith

national

estimates

for2023andsimilartothehistoricaveragefor2012-2022(+5.9%).InIndia,demandincreasedby3.1%,whichwaslowerthantheaveragegrowthfor2012-2022(+5.4%)andmuchslowerthanthe11%growthseeninthesameperiodlastyear,whenthecountrywas

recoveringfromCovid-19lockdownsaswellas

experiencingsomeheatwaves.

Slowdemandgrowth,andespeciallythefallsseeninsomematureeconomies,isunlikelytocontinuetothesamelevelinthefuture.Ascountrieselectrifytheireconomies,theirelectricitydemandislikelyto

increase

,evenasefficiencyimproves.Thismeansthatcountriescannotrelyonfallingdemandtoreduceemissionsfromthepowersector.Insteadtheyneedtoincreasetheircleanelectricitysources.Atthesametime,electricitydemandisexpectedtoincrease

acrossrapidly-growingeconomies,includingChinaandIndia,astheycontinuetoadvancetheireconomiesandincreaseaccesstoelectricity.

Chapter2|Countryandregionanalysis

Deepdiveonthefivebiggestpowersectoremitters

Electricitydemandfellinsomehighincomeeconomies(theEU,Japan,andtheUS),drivingtheiremissionsdownandcontributingtoflatteningemissionsatthegloballevel.InIndia,demandgrewmoderatelyleadingtoslowergrowthincoalgenerationcomparedtothesameperiodlastyearwhichinturnsloweddownemissionsrise.DemandalsoincreasedinChinawhereproblemswithhydronecessitatedhighercoalconsumptionandledtoincreasedemissions.

China

Chinaaccountedfortwo-thirdsofglobalgrowthinwindandsolargenerationinthefirsthalfof2023,butpoorhydroconditionsledtoanincreaseincoalpower.

Chinaistheworld’slargestpowerproducer,accountingfor31%ofglobalgeneration,anditwillcontinuetoberesponsibleformostfutureglobaldemandgrowth.Hence,whathappensinthecountry’selectricitysectoriscriticallyimportanttotheglobalelectricitytransition.

Inthefirsthalfof2023,Chinaaccountedfor67%ofglobalgrowthinwindandsolargeneration,butpoorhydrooutputmeantthatChinaalsosawasignificantincreaseingenerationfromcoal.

.

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China’sdemandincreasedabovetheworldaverage

China’selectricitydemandgrew6%(+246TWh)inthefirsthalfof2023,alargerincreasethanthe2.4%growthseeninthesameperiodlastyear.However,thecountry’sgrowththisyearisinlinewithitsaverageg