bain戰(zhàn)略分析工具profit-pool-課件

bain戰(zhàn)略分析工具profitpoolProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategyOritGadieshandJamesL.GilbertHarvardBusinessReviewMay-June19981/6/20242DarralG.ClarkeforBM499THEPCINDUSTRY’SPROFITPOOLValuechainfocusAxesVertical—operatingmarginHorizontal—shareofindustrydata40%30201000100%shareofindustryrevenuemicroprocessorsothercomponentspersonalcomputerssoftwareperipheralsservicesThevaluechainforthePCindustryincludessixkeyactivities;theprofitabilityoftheactivitiesvarieswidely.Manufacturerscompeteinthelargestbutleast-profitablesegmentofthechain.1/6/20243DarralG.ClarkeforBM499TheProfitPoolLensTheprofitpoolisthetotalprofitearnedinanindustryatallpointsalongtheindustry’svaluechainSegmentprofitabilitymayvarybycustomergroup,productcategory,geographicmarket,ordistributionchannelProfitconcentrationmaybeverydifferentthanrevenueconcentrationShapeoftheprofitpoolreflectsthecompetitivedynamicsofabusinessInteractionsofcompaniesandcustomersCompetitivestrategiesofcompetitorsProductpoolsarenotstagnant1/6/20244DarralG.ClarkeforBM499THEU.S.AUTOINDUSTRY’SPROFITPOOL100%operatingmarginsource:HarvardBusinessReview,May-June1998autorental25%1510500shareofindustryrevenueautomanufacturingnewcardealersusedcardealersautoloansautoinsuranceaftermarketparts20leasingwarrantygasolineservicerepairTheautomotiveindustryencompassesmanyvalue-chainactivities.Thewaythatprofitsandrevenuesaredistributedamongtheseactivitiesvariesgreatly.Themostprofitableareasofthecarbusinessarenottheonesthatgeneratethebiggestrevenues.1/6/20245DarralG.ClarkeforBM499ProfitPools:CompanyExamplesCompaniesAutomakersU-HaulElevators(OTIS)HarleyDavidsonPolaroidCoreBusinessAutomanufacturingTruckRentalElevatorManufacturingMotorcyclesInstantPhotographyCamerasSourcesofHighestROIAutoleasing,insurancePackingmaterials,storageServiceAccessories(consumerproducts),leasing,service,restaurantsFilm1/6/20246DarralG.ClarkeforBM499ManagerialImplicationsFocusongrowthandmarketsharecanleadacompanytofocusonunprofitablesegmentsofanindustryToday’sdeeprevenuerevenuepoolmaybetomorrow’sdryhole.ThegoalshouldbetofocusonprofitableopportunitiesIndustryshouldbeconsideredmorebroadlythantraditionaldefinitionAutomobileindustryincludesComponentmanufactureandsupplyNewcarassemblyanddeliveryNewcarwarranteeandserviceNewcarfinancingandinsuranceUsedcarsalesandservice1/6/20247DarralG.ClarkeforBM499TurbulentindustriesProfitpoolsareespeciallyimportantandusefulinindustriesundergoingderegulationand/ortechnologicalchangeSuchchangescanopennewprofitpoolopportunitiesanddrainoldonesChokepointsmaychangeorbeeliminatedOpportunitiesforeitherforwardorverticalintegrationmayemergeCurrentverticalintegrationmaybedisintermediated1/6/20248DarralG.ClarkeforBM499CreatingandmanagingaprofitpoolProfitpoolanalysismayindicatenewopportunitiesorthreatsImperativesBeopentoanewperspectiveonyourbusinessandindustryDevelopingnewstrategymayrequireoverturningelementsofthecurrentstrategyBeopentoreevaluatetheroleplayedbycurrentcompetitorsBevigilanttoidentifypossibilitythatnewentrantsmayseektoenteryourindustrywithradicalstrategies1/6/20249DarralG.ClarkeforBM499LookingAhead:ProfitPoolsandtheFiveForcesProfitpoolsarecomputedbymultiplyingthesizeoftherevenuebytheunitprofitmarginEssentiallyanaccountingprocess--notheoryMostvaluableinsituationsinwhichexternalconditionsareessentialstableand/orunimportant(Oftendominatedbyinternaldataalone)Thefiveforcestellsus(whichwillstudynext)theunderlyingdeterminantsthatdetermineboththerevenuesizeandtheunitprofitmarginTheprofitdriverswhichallowustoforecastthedirectionofchange1/6/202410DarralG.ClarkeforBM499MarakonRunnersThomasA.StewartFortuneSept.28,19981/6/202411DarralG.ClarkeforBM499MarakonAssociates’sApproachtoCorporateStrategyConsultantstomanylargecorporationsCocaCola,HP,GM,CitiCorp,etc.Clientshavereturns3.1%higherthanindustrypeergroupGoalistoincreaseshareholdervaluethroughanalysisofeconomicprofitDeepdrillinginbusinessdatatomeasurevaluecreationProductsegmentsCustomersegments1/6/202412DarralG.ClarkeforBM499HowStrategyHappensLearningwherevalueiscreatedWaterfallchartsbyproductandcustomersegmentsEvaluatingstrategyIndustryaverageprofitperunitCompany’sprofitvsindustryaverageManagingvalueCurrentstrategyChangeproductfocusChangecustomerfocus1/6/202413DarralG.ClarkeforBM499LearningwherevalueiscreatedProductsegmentsCustomersegmentsProfit/loss($perunit)Volume(units)Volume(units)01/6/202414DarralG.ClarkeforBM499EvaluatingStrategyCompanyprofitperunitIndustry-averageprofitperunit1/6/202415DarralG.ClarkeforBM499ManagingforvalueCurrentstrategyChangeproductfocusChangeCustomerfocusValue1/6/202416DarralG.ClarkeforBM499ApplicationtoourcasesRetailindustry(Wal*Mart)Softdrinkindustry(Coca-ColaandPepsiCo)Steel(Nucor)andaluminumcans(CC&S)Hitech(Intel,Cisco,andDell)Videogames(Nintendo)Webbusinesses(eBayandYahoo!)1/6/202417DarralG.ClarkeforBM499TheCoreCompetenceoftheCorporationPrahalad,C.K.andGaryHamelHarvardBusinessReview,May-June19901/6/202418DarralG.ClarkeforBM499CoreCompetenceAFirmismadeupofresourcespeople,patents,brandnames,plant&equipment,processes,etcAcompetenceistheabilitytoemploydiverseskillsandresourcestoperformtasksandactivities.Acorecompetenceisabroadlybasedand/orabroadlyappliedfundamentalcapability.1/6/202419DarralG.ClarkeforBM499CompetenceandTechnologyCompetenceisnotthesameastechnologyCompetencerequirestechnologiessocialorganizationcollectivelearning1/6/202420DarralG.ClarkeforBM499Corecompetencequestions:Whatarewereallygoodat?Howcanwebuilduponit?Whatdoweneedtobegoodat?1/6/202421DarralG.ClarkeforBM499CharacteristicsofEffectiveCompetenciesDurability:Technicalequipmentcanbeshortlived.Reputationorknowledgemaydepreciatemoreslowly.Transparency:Themorecomplexthesourceofcompetence,theharderitistoimitateit.Transferability:Theavailabilityofresourcestocompetitors.Replicability:Acompetitor’sinternalabilitytoreplicateacompetenceusingavailableresources.1/6/202422DarralG.ClarkeforBM499ChoosingCompetenciesHowcentralisthiscompetencetooursuccessinthemarket?Howlongcouldwepreserveourcompetitivenessinthisbusinesswithoutthisparticularcompetence?Whatfutureopportunitieswouldbeforeclosedifweweretolosethisparticularcompetence?1/6/202423DarralG.ClarkeforBM499CoreCompetenceandCoreProducts1/6/202424DarralG.ClarkeforBM499AHierarchyofCompetencies1/6/202425DarralG.ClarkeforBM499BuildingStrategyfromCapabilitiesStrategyCapabilitiesResources1.Identifyresources,appraiserelativestrengthsandweaknesses.Leverageuseofresources2.Identifycapabilities.Whatdowedomoreeffectivelythancompetitors?Identifyresourceinputstocapabilities.3.Appraiserent-generatingpotentialresourcesandcapabilitiesintermsof:sustainableadvantage,inappropriability4.Selectstrategythatbestexploitsthefirm’sresourcesandcapabilitiesrela-tivetoexternalopportunities.5.Identifyresourcegapsthatneedtobefilled.Investinreplenishing,augmenting,andup-gradingthefirm’sresourcebase.CompetitiveAdvantageSource:RobertM.Grant,“TheResource-BasedTheoryofCompetitiveAdvantage,”CaliforniaManagementReview,Spring,1991,page151.1/6/202426DarralG.ClarkeforBM499Howtomapyourindustry’sprofitpoolOritGadieshandJamesL.GilbertHarvardBusinessReviewMay-June19981/6/202427DarralG.ClarkeforBM499AstraightforwardexercisewithcomplicationsConceptisstraightforwardDefinevaluechainactivitiesDeterminetheirsizeandprofitabilityApplicationofconceptiscomplicatedFinancialdatadoesn’tcorrespondtovaluechainactivitiesCompanydataisaggregatedacrossbusinessesProducts,customerpurchases,channelvolumesrarelymatchupwithboundariesofanactivityConsiderablecreativityisrequired1/6/202428DarralG.ClarkeforBM499FourstepprocessDefinethepoolDeterminethesizeofthepoolDeterminethedistributionofprofitsReconciletheestimates1/6/202429DarralG.ClarkeforBM499FourstepprocessDefinethepoolDeterminethesizeofthepoolDetermineprofitdistributionReconciletheestimatesTask:determinewhichvalue-chainactivityinfluenceprofitsnowandinthefutureDevelopabaselineestimateofcumulativeprofitsgeneratedbyallprofitpoolactivitiesDevelopestimateoftheprofitsgeneratedbyeachactivityComparetheoutputsofsteps2&3GuidelinesTakeabroadviewofthevaluechain(beyondtraditionalindustrydefinition)SeekaroughbutaccurateestimateShiftbetweenaggregationanddisaggregationinyouranalysisIfnumbersdon’taddup,CheckassumptionandcalculationsExamineindustryfromthreeperspective:own,otherplayers,customersTakeeasiestroute:gowherethedataareDoowneconomicsfirst,thenlargepureplayers,largemixed,smallerCollectadditionaldataDon’tdisaggregatemorethannecessaryTakeatleasttwoviewpoints:companylevelandproductlevelUseproxymeasureswherenecessaryResolveinconsistencies—don’tignorethemOutputProfitpoollistEstimateoftotalpoolprofits,(range)PointestimateofprofitsforeachvaluechainactivityFinalestimatesofactivityandtotalpoolprofits1/6/202430DarralG.ClarkeforBM499Whatis“profit”anyway?Canbethoughtofinthreeways(allofwhichmayberelevantforprofitpoolanalysis)AccountingprofitReturnoninvestmentEconomicvalueadded=after-taxoperatingprofits–costofalli