PropTrack：澳大利亞房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)2023年11月

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1Dec2023

AustralianpropertypricesliftinNovembertorecordhigh,defyinginterestraterise

Keyfindings:

.Homepriceshaveprovedresilienttotheimpactof

higherinterestratesthisyear–atrendthatcontinuedinNovember.Nationalhomepriceshitanewrecordhigh,althoughthepaceofgrowthslowedasmorepropertiescametomarket.

.Nationalhomepricesclimbed0.22%inNovemberto

peaklevels,bringingthemup5.53%sofarthisyearand1.29%abovetheirpreviouspeakrecordedinMarch2022.

.AlthoughgrowthinSydneyhasslowed,priceshita

recordhighinNovember,increasing0.32%.Pricesarenowup8.27%sofarthisyearand1.00%abovetheir

previouspeakrecordedinFebruary2022.

.Allcapitals,exceptDarwin,recordedpricerisesin

November.Perthcontinueditsstreakwithpricesrising

0.74%month-on-month.ThismadePerththestrongestcapitalthroughoutthemonth.Adelaide(+0.34%),

Sydney(+0.32%)andCanberra(+0.32%)alsosawstronggrowth.

.Pricesinthecombinedcapitalcitieshaveoutperformedregionalmarketsthisyear.Althoughpricesinboth

marketsreachedfreshpeaksinNovember,capitalcitiessawstrongergrowth(+0.26%)thanregionalmarkets

(+0.12%).

“NationalhomepricegrowthslowedinNovember,withthespringsellingsurgeincreasingchoiceforbuyers.

“Stronghousingdemand,buoyedbyrecordnet

overseasmigration,tightrentalmarkets,low

unemploymentandhomeequitygains,hasworked

alongsidelimitedhousingstocktooffsettheimpactsofhigherinterestratesthisyear.

“DespiteinterestratesclimbingagaininNovemberand

theflowoflistingshittingthemarketincreasing,

housingdemandhasremainedstrongandnationalpriceshavenowrisenfor11straightmonths.

“Meanwhile,thesharpriseinconstructioncostsandlabourandmaterialsshortageshaveslowedthe

deliveryofnewbuilds,hamperingthesupplyofnewhousing.

“Lookingahead,pricegrowthisexpectedtocontinueasthepositivetailwindsforhousingdemandanda

slowdowninthecompletionofnewhomescounterthesharpdeteriorationinaffordabilityandslowing

economy.However,pricesarelikelytoliftataslowerpacethantheyhaveacross2023.”

PropTrackHomePriceIndexembargoeduntil1December202312:01am|Author:EleanorCreagh,PropTrackSeniorEconomist

Mediaenquiries:sophie.flavell@rea-group.com

Sydney

SydneyisleadingAustralia’shomepricerecovery.Afterfalling6.82%fromFebruarytoNovember

2022,priceshavenowrisenfor12consecutive

monthsandareup8.40%fromtheirlowpointin

November2022.Havingfullyrecoveredlastyear’slosses,pricesarenow1.00%abovetheirpreviouspeakrecordedinFebruary2022.

Brisbane

HomepricesinBrisbanehaverisenatafastpacethisyear,regainingallof2022’spricefalls.The

paceofgrowthslowedinNovember,butpricesstillclimbed0.20%tohitapricepeak.Pricesarenow8.85%abovetheirlevelayearagoandup8.91%year-to-date.

Perth

Perthhomepriceshaverisenatafastpacethis

yearandPerthremainsthestrongestmarketinthecountryintermsofannualgrowth.Homeprices

rose0.74%inNovember—the17thconsecutive

monthofgrowth—toanewpeak.Perthpricesareup12.30%year-to-date.Limitedsupplyamidstrongbuyerdemandhasresultedinasellers’market,

withpricesinPerthup12.76%fromtheirlevelayearago.Therelativeaffordabilityofthecity’shomes,

populationgrowth,andverytightrentalmarketsarealsosupportinghomevalues.

Darwin

Darwinhomepricesfellby0.12%inNovember.

Pricesnowsit1.75%belowtheirlevelayearago

and2.74%belowtheirMay2022peak.Darwinhasnotseenarecoveryinpricesin2023,butitalsodidnotseeaslargeadownturnin2022.

Melbourne

Melbournehomepricesgrewbyamodest0.04%inNovember.Thisbringpricesup1.39%fromtheir

levelayearago.Evenso,pricesinMelbourne

remain3.71%belowtheirpeakinMarch2022.

ComparedtotheirlowpointinJanuary2023,home

pricesinMelbourneareup1.92%.ThismeansthepricerecoveryinMelbourneislaggingSydney,BrisbaneandCanberrabutremainsaheadof

Hobart.

Adelaide

Adelaidehomepricesrose0.34%month-on-monthinNovembertoanewpeakandarenowup9.19%

year-to-date.Adelaideisoneofthecountry’stopperformingmarkets,withhomepricesup9.74%

year-on-year.Thecomparativeaffordabilityofthecity’shomeshasseenpricesdefyrapidinterest

raterises.Lowstocklevelsarealsointensifying

competition,withhomepricesinAdelaiderisingatafastpace.

Hobart

PricesinHobartrose0.03%inNovember.Hobart

remainstheweakestperformingmarketwhen

comparingannualpricegrowth(-2.92%),aswellasthechangefrompeak(-6.63%).However,this

comesafterseveralyearsofoutperformance,aswellasstronggrowthduringthepandemic.HomepricesinHobartarestillup37.93%sinceMarch

2020.

ACT

HomepricesinCanberrarose0.32%month-on-

monthtosit0.97%abovelevelsseeninNovemberlastyear.WhilepricesinCanberrahaverecovered2.35%sincehittingtheirtroughinFebruary2023,theyremain4.49%belowtheirMarch2022peak.

PropTrackHomePriceIndexembargoeduntil1December202312:01am|Author:EleanorCreagh,PropTrackSeniorEconomist

Mediaenquiries:sophie.flavell@rea-group.com

Methodology

ThePropTrackHPImodelusesahybridmethodologythat

combinesrepeatsalesandhedonicregression.BothofthesemethodologiesarecommonlyusedtomeasurehousingpricemovementsinAustraliaandoverseas.Thesemethodologiesaredesignedtoestimatethechangeinhomepricesinawaythatisnotaffectedbythequalityandlocationofthesampleofhomesthattransactinagivenperiod.

Repeatsalesregressionmatchestransactionsofidenticalpropertiesovertime.Thisusesthefactthatthechangeinpriceofagivenpropertyovertimeshouldonlyreflect

changesinmarketprices(assumingnosignificantalterationorrenovationwasundertakenbetweensales).Hedonic

regressionbreaksdownthevalueofhomesintoobservable

characteristics(e.g.size,location)toaccountfordifferencesincharacteristicsofsoldpropertiesovertime.

ThePropTrackHPIusesahybridmethodology,whichstarts

witharepeatsalesregression,butallowstransactionsfornon-identical,butcloselylocatedpropertiesofthesametypeto

bematchedtogether.Salesofpropertiesofthesametype

(house,unit)inthesameABSStatisticalAreaLevel1are

matchedtogether.Thereareover57,000spatialSA1regions

acrossAustralia,withapopulationgenerallybetween200and800people.Thisincreasesthenumberofmatchesthatcanbeusedtoestimatehomepricegrowthandusesthefactthat

nearbypropertiesaregenerallysimilar.Hedonicregressionisusedtoaccountfordifferencesinthesizeofpropertiesthatarematchedtogether,usingthenumberofbedroomsineachproperty.

Inthisway,thehybridmethodologyaugmentstherepeatsalesmethodologyforhomepricegrowthtobeestimatedwhere

theremightnotbesufficientvolumeofrepeatsales

transactions.

ThePropTrackHPIestimateshomepricegrowthinarobustandflexiblemanner,whichisrevisedeachmonth,allowing

eachestimatetobestreflecttheavailabledataonAustralianhomepricesovertime.

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