基于CGE的上海市宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策模擬系統(tǒng)開(kāi)發(fā)及其應(yīng)用的中期報(bào)告

基于CGE的上海市宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策模擬系統(tǒng)開(kāi)發(fā)及其應(yīng)用的中期報(bào)告Abstract：Thisreportpresentsamid-termprogressreportonthedevelopmentandapplicationofacomputablegeneralequilibrium(CGE)modelforsimulatingmacroeconomicpoliciesinShanghai,China.Themainobjectivesofthisresearchareto:1)developadata-drivenCGEmodelforShanghaithataccountsforallrelevantsectorsandfactormarkets;2)usethemodeltosimulatearangeofmacroeconomicpoliciestoassesstheirimpactsonemployment,output,andprices;and3)providepolicyrecommendationsbasedonthesimulationresults.ThisreportoutlinesthemethodologyfordevelopingtheCGEmodel,describesthedatasourcesandassumptionsusedinthemodel,andpresentssomepreliminarysimulationresults.Keywords:CGEmodel,macroeconomicpolicies,simulation,Shanghai,ChinaIntroduction：ShanghaiisoneofthemosteconomicallydynamicregionsinChina.Itsstrategiclocation,internationalconnectivity,andstrongindustrialcapabilitieshaveattractedsignificantforeigninvestmentandfosteredthegrowthofadiversesetofindustries.However,likeotherregionsinChina,Shanghaiisfacingarangeofmacroeconomicchallenges,includingrisinglaborcosts,agingpopulation,andincreasingenvironmentalpressures.Toaddressthesechallenges,policymakersneedtodevelopeffectivemacroeconomicpoliciesthatbalanceeconomicgrowthwithsocialandenvironmentalsustainability.Traditionally,macroeconomicpoliciesareevaluatedusingeconometricmodels,suchasVectorAutoRegressions(VAR)orDynamicStochasticGeneralEquilibrium(DSGE)models.However,thesemodelshaveseverallimitations.First,theyoftenrelyonrestrictiveassumptionsandsimplificationsoftheeconomy,suchasassumingawaymarketimperfectionsortreatingallfirmsandhouseholdsashomogeneous.Second,theyaretypicallydata-intensiveandrequirealargeamountofdetailedtime-seriesdata,whichmaybedifficulttoobtainornotavailableforaparticularregionorsector.Finally,theyareunabletocapturethecomplexinterdependenciesbetweendifferentsectorsandmarkets,makingitdifficulttoassesstheindirecteffectsofpolicies.Toovercometheselimitations,researchershaveincreasinglyturnedtocomputablegeneralequilibrium(CGE)models,whicharebasedonthemicroeconomicfoundationsoftheeconomyandexplicitlyaccountforallrelevantsectorsandfactormarkets.CGEmodelsareabletocapturethecomplexfeedbackrelationshipsbetweendifferentmarketsandsectors,andcanbeusedtosimulateawiderangeofmacroeconomicpoliciesandshocks.Moreover,theycanbecalibratedusingacombinationofsurveyandadministrativedata,makingthemmoreapplicabletospecificregionsorsectors.Inthisproject,weaimtodevelopaCGEmodelforShanghaithatcanbeusedtosimulatearangeofmacroeconomicpoliciesandassesstheirimpactsonemployment,output,andprices.Thisreportpresentsamid-termprogressreportonthedevelopmentoftheCGEmodel,includingthemethodologyusedtodevelopthemodel,thedatasourcesandassumptionsusedinthemodel,andsomepreliminarysimulationresults.Methodology：TheCGEmodelusedinthisstudyisbasedontheSocialAccountingMatrix(SAM)framework.ASAMisacomprehensivesocial,economicandenvironmentaldatabaseconsistingofasetoftablesthatdescribetheentireeconomyintermsoftransactionsbetweendifferentsectors,households,andgovernment.TheSAMdefinesthesupplyanddemandrelationshipsinallgoodsandfactorsmarketsandservesasthebasisfortheCGEmodel.ThedevelopmentoftheCGEmodelinvolvesthreemainstages:1)buildingtheSAMforShanghai;2)constructingtheCGEmodelbasedontheSAM;and3)calibratingandvalidatingthemodelusingdataforShanghai.Wehavecompletedthefirsttwostages,andarecurrentlyworkingonthefinalstage.TheSAMforShanghaiwasconstructedbasedonexistingdatasources,includingnationalinput-outputtables,statisticalyearbooks,andotheradministrativedata.TheSAMconsistsof16sectors,includingagriculture,mining,manufacturing,construction,wholesaleandretailtrade,transportandstorage,finance,andotherservices.TheSAMalsoincludeshouseholdandgovernmentsectors,aswellasfactormarketsforlaborandcapital.TheCGEmodelwasconstructedbasedontheSAMusingtheGAMSsoftwarepackage.Themodelconsistsoffourmaincomponents:1)theproductionfunction,whichdescribeshowinputsoflaborandcapitalaretransformedintooutputsofgoodsandservices;2)thedemandfunction,whichdescribeshowhouseholdsandfirmschoosequantitiesofgoodsandservicesbasedonpricesandincome;3)thefactormarketequations,whichdescribehowwagesandrentalratesaredeterminedbasedonsupplyanddemandconditionsinthelaborandcapitalmarkets;and4)thegovernmentequations,whichdescribethegovernment'sbudgetconstraintanditstaxandspendingpolicies.SimulationResults：Wehaveconductedapreliminarysimulationanalysistoassesstheimpactsofarangeofmacroeconomicpoliciesonemployment,output,andpricesinShanghai.Thepoliciesincludechangesininvestment,governmentspending,exportdemand,andlaborproductivity.ThesimulationresultssuggestthatincreasinginvestmentandexportdemandcanleadtosignificantincreasesinoutputandemploymentinShanghai,whilealsoincreasingprices.However,increasinglaborproductivityandreducingenvironmentalexternalitiescanalsoleadtosignificantimprovementsinwelfare,withoutleadingtosignificantinflationarypressures.Theresultsalsosuggestthattheimpactofpoliciesdependsonthestructureoftheeconomy,andthatpoliciestargetedatparticularsectorsormarketscanhavedifferenteffectsthangeneralpolicies.Conclusion：Thisreportpresentsamid-termprogressreportont