歐洲購電協(xié)議市場(chǎng)展望2024

EUROPEAN

MARKETOUTLOOK2024

Preparingforimpact:

Thesilverliningaftertheclouds

2EUROPEANPPAMARKETOUTLOOK2024

TABLEOFCONTENTS

ExecutiveSummary3

Introduction7

ACTI

Chapter1:ApproachingtheGoldenPPAEra9

1.1Thebigpicture:2018-2023year-by-yearevolution10

1.2Data-drivenheadlinespaintingthe2023picture13

Chapter2:PPAadvancementsandinnovations27

2.1HybridPPAsenteredthescene27

2.2EarlysignsofPPAsforGreenH2Production29

2.3Aggregatingdemand:Multi-buyerPPAs31

2.4Nextfrontier:24/7GreenEnergyPurchasing32

ACTII

Chapter3:Prominenteventsof202335

3.1.Volatilityandpricesenroutetostabilisation35

3.2.Marketfundamentalsshookupfinancingcosts39

3.3.Short-termPPAsshowedmixmovements42

3.4.MoretroublewithBaseloadPPAs44

3.5.Theregulatorypendulumswungback48

Chapter4:TopPredictionsfor202451

4.1.GermanywilltoppleSpaininPPAactivity52

4.2.ThePPAMarketwillsurpass20GW52

4.3.ThegeographicalscopeofHybridPPAswillexpandbeyondGB53

4.4.TheshareofUtilityPPAswillincrease53

Conclusion54

LegalDisclaimer55

3EUROPEANPPAMARKETOUTLOOK2024

1.EXECUTIVESUMMARY

KeyfindingsfromourEuropeanPPAMarketOutlook2024report:

ThePPAMarketentereditsGoldenEra

withrecordactivity–Followingastabilising

environmentinthefundamentalsofdeal-making,overthepasttwelvemonthsourPPATracker

recordedahefty16.2GWofdisclosedcontractedvolumes–anincreaseofmorethan40%vis-à-

vis2022.Dealcountpeakedat272PPAs–anincreaseofanimpressive65%from2022!

Thebalancebetweencorporateandutilityofftakesimproved–Corporatesmaintained

theleadpositionindrivingthePPAmarket,buttherewasanuptickinutilityofftakeactivity.

Reducedvolatilitylevels,andstrongcorporatedemandwerethekeydriversbehindutility

appetite.

CorporateshowedpreferencetoPPAs

directlywithprojects–Outofthe216

CorporatePPAsthatdisclosedtheseller,

44%werecontractedwithautility,withtheremaining56%havingadeveloper/IPP/FundManagerasthecounterparty.Webelieve

thedatashowthepreferenceofcorporatestocontractdirectlywithprojectstoillustrateadditionalitymoreclearly,especiallywhen

takingintoconsiderationthatmanyutilitiescontractwithcorporatesonthebackofowngeneration.

TheroleofutilitiesinthePPAMarket

evolved–Trackingonlytheofftakeactivityofutilitiesdoesnotpaintthecompletepicture

oftheirimpactinthePPAspace.Ascoreriskmanagers,thecontributionsofutilitiestothemarkethaveexpandedthroughback-to-back

PPAs,andservicesinbothbuyersandsellersmanagingtheirrisks.

SpainandGermanyaccountedfor50%of2023’svolumes–Eventhoughwe

sawvividactivityacrossEurope,8.4GW

wereconcentratedinSpainandGermany,

accountingfor51%ofthetotal16.2GW.TheMediterraneanQueenkeptitsTopposition

forafifthconsecutiveyear,butitsthronewaschallengedforthefirsttimeever.Indealcount,thepictureismorebalanced.

IberdrolawastheTopSellerbothbyvolumeanddealcount–Thegoldmedalcomesdue

toninedealswithcorporates,amountingto

908MW.SixtookplaceinGermanyonthe

backofIberdrola’soffshorewindcapacityinthecountry,followedbytwosolardealsinSpain,

andoneonshorewinddealagaininthelandofEnergiewende.Statkraftwasthemostactive

sellerwith19deals.

MrBezosisbacktotheTopBuyerposition

–In2023,Amazon’sactivityreturnedto

theEuropeancontinent,leadingtheIT

conglomeratetocontractabulky1.87GW

acrosssevendeals.Thecorporatealsotopsthelistbydealcount.

InformationTechnologystillontop–IT

conglomeratesmaintaintheirtopranking,withatotalof3.6GWacross25deals.Consumer

Staplesalsomaintaineditsleadingpositionintermsofdealcountwhilealsojumpingtothesecondpositionvolumes-wise.

4EUROPEANPPAMARKETOUTLOOK2024

Volatilityheadachesmadecorporatesmore

risk-aware–Lastyearprovedthatvolatilityledtoapermanentshiftinprocurementstrategies,

asmanyenergyintensivesmadecorporatePPAsaprominentandconsistenthedgingtool.We

alsonotedincreasedawarenessofpriceand

profilerisk,whichtranslatestohowdifferent

PPAvolumesarepriced.Dueto2022’svolatility,somedealswerepricedunderwrongvaluationassumptions,potentiallyleavingcorporates

payinghigherthanmarketpricesforalongterm.

SolarPPAvolumesquadruplebothonshoreandoffshorewind–SolarPVwasbyfarmorepopularinPPAdeal-making,holdingthelion’ssharewithatotalof10.5GW–or,almost65%oftheyear’s16.2GWPPAvolumesacross160deals.Onshorewindsaw2.3GWacross58

deals,whileoffshorewindsaw2GWacross20deals.

Balancingcontractsarebecomingpivotal

inarevenue’sstack–In2023,thepricingof

balancingagreementsmirroredthedownwardtrajectoryofpowerprices,butdespitedroppingtoapproximatelyEUR3/MWh,theystill

remainedathigherthanthelong-termaverage.

Amidtighteningmargins,bothBalancing

contractandGoOssalesoptimisationbecomeimportantpriorities.

HybridPPAsenteredthescene–The

momentumaroundrenewables-plus-storageincreasedsignificantlyover2023,asmost

playersarelookingateitherintroducingstorageintheirportfolioorincreasingcapacity.The

impetusalsomanifestedintheEuropeanPPA

marketthroughtheemergenceofthefirstHybridPPAsforlarge-scalesubsidy-freesolarassets.

Gridconnectionsavingsareacoreattraction

forco-location.Still,thecombinationofvalue

creationfromgrid-levelservicesalongside

optimisationofasset-levelrevenuesepitomisesthedriverbehindthepromisinglandofthe

businessmodel.

PPAsforGreenH2Productionshowed

earlysigns–Anothernotabletrendin2023

wastherapidgrowthofPPAsdestinedto

powerupcominggreenhydrogenandammoniaplants,withamixofnuancespaintingthe

wholepicture.PPAslinkedtogreenhydrogenandammoniaproductionwereannouncedinNorway,FranceandGermany,leveragingnewandexistingcapacity.

Renewableenergyisheavilyneededtofeed

anyPower-to-Xproject.However,thesweet

spotliesinthedeltabetweenprojecteconomicsandPPAprices–andthislandscapeisstill

evolving.

Multi-buyerPPAsincreased–Multi-buyerPPAs,alsoknownasAggregatedPPAs,arenotnewtotheEuropeanPPAMarket,as

suchdeals,inprinciple,emergedin2016.

However,2023sawtheconceptmaturingin

anacceleratedmannerwithatotaloffoursuch

announcements.

Inspiteofincreasedinterestintheconcept,webelievegovernment-backedcreditguarantee

schemeswouldbeamoreimpactfultoolto

increasethepoolofSMEswillingtobuy.The

sophisticationofsellersandinclusiveguaranteeschemescouldbethemaintwodriversofthe

trend.

Theconceptof24/7GreenEnergy

Purchasingadvanced–Themorenichetrendtoenergyprocurementisdrivenbycorporatesinterestedinhourlymatchingofconsumption

inlieuoftheprevalentannualconsumption

matchingmodel.Lateststudiesshowedthat

ontopofimprovedgreencredentialsandmoreimpactfuladditionality,suchanapproachalsoillustratespricehedgingbenefits.AnoptimisedportfolioofwindandsolarPPAscouldbe

enoughtostarta24/7journeyandachieve60-75%hourlymatching.

5EUROPEANPPAMARKETOUTLOOK2024

Volatilityandpricesenroutetostabilisation–Theyear2023wascharacterisedbyaconsistentdownwardtrajectoryofgasandelectricityprices,resultinginreducedvolatilitylevelsinpower

marketscomparedtotheyearbefore.When

lookingatthebigpicture,itseemsthatEurope

hasenteredaneweraofprolongedvolatility,fornowmostlydrivenbyfossilfuelpricingrisksandmacroeconomics,withcannibalizationriskclosetoenteringtheconversation.

ThePEXAEuroCompositedropped35%

year-on-year–FromthefirstdayofJanuary

at78.7EUR/MWhtothelastdayofDecember2023at50.1EUR/MWh,theEUROCompositedecreasedby35%-withtheaverage

throughouttheyearstandingat58EUR/MWh.

Decreasedvolatilityreducedriskdiscounts–Onthebackoflowervolatilityandhighcorporatedemand,riskdiscountsfactoredintoPPA

pricingtocompensateformarket,technology,

andstructure-specificriskshavedecreased

substantiallycomparedto2022levels.Spain

andGermanyareprimeexamples.Nonetheless,cannibalizationriskisfactoredmoreaggressivelyinPay-as-Produced(PAP)PPAs.

Marketfundamentalsshookupfinancing

costs–Followingtheprogressivesettlingofthepricingandregulatoryturmoil,therenewables

industrywasconfrontedbyasnowballeffect

ofchangesinmarketfundamentals,resultinginhigher-than-averageconstruction,operational,andfundingcostsforrenewableassets.

Challengesinfinancingcostsandcapexare

catalysinginterestinsqueezingreturnmargins,asmarketplayersarelookingtomakethemostoftheirportfolio.

Short-termPPAsshowedmixedmovements

–Short-termPPAsdifferlargelyintenor.Theirrangespansacrossweeks,months,orupto

fiveyears.Onthebackofthatnote,thepicturein2023wasbothpositiveandnegative.PPAsof1-year>tenor,partofadynamicselling

strategycomprisedofweeks-longandmonths-longPPAs,tookthebiggesthitduetothe

implementationofrevenuecaps.Webelieve

thatsomeplayersviewedthisapproachhighlyopportunisticallyandnotasastrategicrisk

managementtool,despitetheevidentupsideeveninalessextremepricingenvironment.

BaseloadPPAswereinmoretrouble–Over2023,theappetiteforBaseloadPPAswas

mixed–withmostsellersbeingincreasinglycautiousdespitethepricepremiumofthe

volumestructure.CertainbankruptcieslinkedtoSweden’screatedfurtheruncertaintyin

themarket.Thereweretimeswhenwesawa

rearrangementofhowsomemarketparticipantsviewtheriskprofileofBLPPAs,classifyingitasriskierthanamerchantapproach.

However,webelieveBLPPAscouldbeoneof

themostcost-optimalhedginginstrumentson

acase-by-casebasis,iftheyarestructuredin

arisk-adjustedmanner.BLPPAsneedtobe

approachedwithamonitoringapproach,contrarytothe‘sell-and-forget’mindsetofPAPsellers.

Theregulatorypendulumswungback–

Followingtheabruptreturnofregulatoryrisk,in2023thepicturechangedsignificantlyduetotheexpirationofmostwindfalltaxmechanismsandtheemergenceofsupportiveregulationformanyaspectsofthePPAmarket.EU’sDelegatedAct

catalysedinfantactivityofrenewablePPAsfor

hydrogenproduction.FranceintroduceditsfirstcreditguaranteeschemewithmorecountriessettofollowsuitunderEU’sdirectives.

However,eventhoughEUhasgiventhePPAmarketitsblessingandsupport,there’sno

marketconsensusonwhetheraggressive

deploymentofCfDschemescangohandinhandwithPPAs.

Toppredictionsfor2024:

1GermanywilltoppleSpaininPPAactivity 2ThePPAMarketwillsurpass20GW

3ThegeographicalscopeofHybridPPAswillexpandbeyondGB

4TheshareofUtilityPPAswillincrease

Utility

2

5

80

100

6EUROPEANPPAMARKETOUTLOOK2024

EUROPEANPPAMARKET2023

16.2GW

272deals

10.5GW

#160

2.3GW

#58

2GW

#20

TOPBUYER

TOPSELLEROlberdrola

PPAdealflowbydisclosedcontractedcapacity,

2018–2023(GW)

4

Corporate

+41%

16.20

0.96GW

#23

13.30

11.45

3.7GW#41

7.98

6.59

3

3.39

1GW#24

3.7GW

#41

201820192020202120222023

0.95GW

#9

EUROComposite(EUR/MWh),2023

VolatilityofDEY+1Futures(%),2023

-35%

90

75

80

70

70

60

65

50

60

58

40

55

30

20

50

10

45

0

7EUROPEANPPAMARKETOUTLOOK2024

2.INTRODUCTION

Herecomesthesun

Thesignsthattheairof2023wasdifferent

appearedsinceitsearlydays.Itseemsthathardlessonsfromtheyearbefore;anunstoppable

corporatearmyathirstforgreenenergy;andthenon-negotiablemandatetopushthroughasmartenergytransitioncatalysedafresh

mindset,mostly.

Over2023,Europe’sPPAuniverseentered

itsGoldenEra.Theshadowsofthepeaksof

theenergypricingandavailabilitycrisiswerestillvisiblethroughouttheyear.Sometimesinatoughway–likethedramaticincreasesin

financingcosts–sometimesjustenoughto

rememberthepain,inaconstructiveway.Inasense,thismayhavebeenthedrivingforceoftheindustry’sachievements.

Duringthisthoroughanalyticalexercise,wehadfundiscoveringexcitingdatainsights,challengedeachother,andspentlongperiodstryingtocrackthecodetounderstandthemarket’schallenges–whichwerenotabsentfromthescene,atall.

Ourrecipeissimple:understandwhat

happened,putitincontext,andbrainstorm

ourfutureexpectations.Followingthesuccess

ofpreviousyears,we’rethrilledtopresentthe

fourtheditionofoursignatureseries,Pexapark’sEuropeanPPAMarketOutlook2024.

Lastbutnotleast,togetherisalwaysbetter.

Ifyoufeelinspired,wearelookingforwardtohearingyourthoughtsat

hello@

.

Onceagain,enjoythedive!

PEXAPARKTEAM

Authors:

LUCAPEDRETTI

ChiefOperationsOfficer(COO)&Co-founder

Lucahas17years’hands-onexperienceinenergyriskmanagementforrenewablesinopenmarkets–valuing,structuring,negotiatingandmanagingPPAtransactionsacrossEurope.HelikesStracciatellaicecreamand

Panettone,alot.

MARITINAKANELLAKOPOULOU

SeniorInsightsAnalyst&ContentManager

Maritinahas8years’experienceinresearchandanalysisofcleanenergytrends,havingprovidedmarketinsightsonEurope’srenewableslandscapetofinanciers,projectsponsors,andadvisorsthroughB2Bpublications.She

believesPandoroisunderrated.

Insights

Contributors:

MichaelWaldner,Co-founder&CEO|JohnDallimore,HeadofCorporatePPA&H2AdvisoryJonasNihoj,HeadofPortfolioandTradingServices|DavidWillemsen,HeadofRiskAdvisoryMathieuVille,HeadofPPATransactions|ItamarOrlandi,SeniorRiskManager

DominiqueHischier,HeadofAnalysis|BrianKnowles,DirectorofStorage&Flexibility

RommeroCarillo,DirectorofBusinessDevelopment|AlexMcGregor,SeniorAnalystPPAMarketsDavidBattista,PriceReporter|ConiMeili,Polling&PPAMarketDataSpecialist

8EUROPEANPPAMARKETOUTLOOK2024

ACTI

9EUROPEANPPAMARKETOUTLOOK2024

CHAPTER1:APPROACHING

THEGOLDENPPAERA

TheEuropeanPPAMarketneverceasestoimpress.Sincethebeginningoftheyear,thearrivaloftherainbowafterthestormhadbecomeevident.Butnot

withoutsomeclouds.What’sthefinalverdict?

PPATrackerMethodology

Beforewestartthebigdive,let’sdoamemoryrefreshmentonhowtoreadPexapark’sPPA

analysis.NotallPPAsareequal,andweknowfirst-hand.OurPPATrackerincludesagreementsthatmeetspecificcriteria.

Pricerisk:Pexapark’sprimarycriterionliesinaPPAcarryingpricerisk.Route-to-market(RTM)orbalancingservicesPPAsdonotmakeittoourPPATracker,eveniftheyareconcludedforlongperiods(i.e.RtMPPAsforprojectsundertheUKCfDschemethatmayneedcontractstomarkettheirpower,whileit’stheUKgovernmentthattakesthepriceriskbyofferingafloorprice).

Tenor:Ourruleofthumbistotracklong-termPPAsofatleasta5-yeartenor.Nonetheless,

initialPPAslinkedtonewprojectsandhaveplayedaroleinthefinancingoftheassets,arebeingaddednomatterthetenorlength.ItisworthnotingthatourdataillustratethatpubliclyavailableShort-term(ST)PPAsfornewprojectsarestillrare(4intotalacross2023).Post-subsidyPPAssuchaspost-EEGinGermanyprolongingthelifeofanasset,orPPAslinkedtoanyexisting

assets(i.e.optimisationPPAsforassetsinitiallycommissionedundersubsidyschemes)needtohaveatenorlongerthan5years.

PPASize:WecalculatethedealflowvolumesbasedonthePPASizeinMWandnotthe

ProjectSize.Atthebeginningof2023,weupdatedourmethodologytoaccountfordealswithnoinformationonthePPASizeinMW,whichwereleftblankbefore.Thanksto‘MissionLucia’(whichfurtherenlightenedthequalityofourdata),wheneverweknowa)volumesinGWhb)

geographyc)technologyofthePPA,weproceedtoacapacityfactor-basedestimationofthe

PPAsize.Luciawasretroactivelyappliedtoalltheexistingentries,whichiswhysomenumbersfromlastyearareslightlydifferent,butmorereflectiveofPPAactivity.Themegatrendsofyearlyvolumeactivityanddealcountremainedunchanged.

YoucanfindourPPATrackeronPexapark’sPPApricereferenceplatformPexaQuote,alongsidemoreinformationonourmethodology.ForthesestringentrulesandtheextramilewegowhenreviewingPPAactivity,ourfindingscouldbedissimilartootherdata-driveninsightproviders.

Toensureyourdealsareincludedinouranalysis,you’reinvitedtousethe‘ReportaPPADeal’functionofPexaQuoteoremail

maritina.kanellakopoulou@

.

11.95

7.98

7.99

6.59

2.83

3.34

5.06

5.19

4.02

3.39

3.06

2.52

0.87

10EUROPEANPPAMARKETOUTLOOK2024

1.1THEBIGPICTURE:2018-2023

YEAR-BY-YEAREVOLUTION

ThepastyearhasbeenbusierfortheEuropeanPPAmarketthaneverbefore,withmultiplerecordsbeingbrokenoneaftertheother.Bepatient;we’reonlygettingstarted!Overthepasttwelve

months,ourPPATrackerrecordedahefty16.2GWofdisclosedcontractedvolumes–anincreaseofmorethan40%vis-à-vis2022.Accordingtotheupdateddata,theEuropeanPPAMarketvolumeshavebeengrowingata37%CAGRsince2018.

PPAdealflowbydisclosedcontractedcapacity,2018-2023(GW)

CorporateUtilityUnknown/OtherCAGR

16.20

+37%

13.30

11.45

9.31

1.96

201820192020202120222023

Source:

PexaQuote

,PPATrackerNote:‘Other’mostlyreferstoelectrolyserdevelopers

Lookingatthedealcount,theyear-on-yearincreaseappearsevenmoreradical.Intotal,2023

saw272PPAs–anincreaseofanimpressive65%from2022!Eventhoughvolumesmakethebiggestheadlines,dealcountisequallyimportant.That’sbecausethevalueillustratesthetimes

sellersandbuyerssatatthetablewhethertheofftakeneedswere20GWhor1,500GWhperannum(yes,therewassuchamammothdeal,andtheofftakerwillnotcomeasasurprise).

Thefactthatofftakerstransacted65%moretimesthantheyearbeforetrulyillustratestheappetite

notjustfromlargeofftakersthatcouldpotentially‘distort’thebigimagewithindividuallarge

offtakes,butalsofromsmallandmediumcorporatesandindustrialsthatwanttobepartoftherevolutioninenergyprocurement.

+52%

164

157

131

30

100

102

48

51

93

60

31

34

24

9

53

11EUROPEANPPAMARKETOUTLOOK2024

PPAdealflowbydealcount,2018-2023(#deals)

CorporateUtilityUnknown/OtherCAGR

272

218

48

201820192020202120222022

Source:

PexaQuote

,PPATrackerNote:‘Other’mostlyreferstoelectrolyserdevelopers

Hedgingagainstvolatilityandsecuringlower-than-marketratesthroughagreenPPAhasbecometheprimaryreasonformanycorporatescontractingPPAs,alongsideESGtargets.Akeyelement

thatenabledasignificantramp-upofactivitywasrelativelysmoothed-outregulatoryconcerns.

Aswillbeanalysedinmoredetaillaterinthisreport,thepricinglandscapeof2023wasdefinedbyastabledownwardtrajectoryofbothpowerandgasfuturesprices.Consequently,PPAprices

acrossEuropeancountriesmimickedthemovementatdifferentlevels,increasingbuyers’confidenceintakinglong-termpricerisk.

Overall,renewableplayersentered2023witharefreshedmindsetandarelativelyincreasedsenseofstability,significantlyincreasingcertaintyonlong-termPPAdeal-making.

12EUROPEANPPAMARKETOUTLOOK2024

Asneakpeekoftheothersideofthecoin

Pricingenvironmentrequiredadjustmentsofexpectationsfromsellers–Despite

exceptionallyhighdeal-makingcatalysedbylessvolatility,somedealsdidnotgothrough

becausesomesellersmodelledrevenuesbasedonlastyear’spricinglevels.Disconnectionfromrealisticpricesandoverlyambitiousexpectationshavealwaysbeenreasonsfordealstofall

through,andthis‘category’ofdealstemporarilyorpermanentlymovingtothevaulthasalwaysexisted.Inourview,itcomesdowntotheabilitytodistinguishpricingandvaluingaPPA.

Windfalltaxesdidnothaveamajorimpactonlong-termtransactions–Over2023,the

seaofcomplexregulationandrevenuecapsthroughwindfalltaxesappearedtobebetterdigestedbymarketparticipants.Despitethescarsfromlastyearandthewait-and-seeperiod,buyersandsellerswerebetterequippedtomanageregulatoryriskduringnegotiations.Ontheotherhand,Short-term(1-4y)PPAstookabiggerhit,aswillbeanalysedlaterinthisreport.

Highfinancingcoststestedcertaindeals–Regulatoryuncertaintywasreplacedbypersistingchangesinmarketfundamentalsfortheinvestmentcommunity.Thecostofdebt,primarilyduetorisingbaserates,remainedatsignificantlyelevatedlevelsinlinewiththeincreaseswitnessedin2022(wherethe10-yEuroswapstartedat0.28%andendedat3.19%).2023wasthefirstfullyearwithachallengingfinancingenvironment,andcertainassetsdidnotmanagetomake

theeconomicswork,withsomePPAnegotiationsfortheseprojectshavingpausedforthetimebeing.

13EUROPEANPPAMARKETOUTLOOK2024

1.2DATA-DRIVENHEADLINES

PAINTINGTHE2023PICTURE

Q1SETTHERHYTHMFORARECORDYEAR

Contrarytothepatternsofpastyears,whereQ4usuallydepictsthemostrobustactivity,Q12023sawthehighestactivityintermsofvolumes,withatotalofanunprecedented5.5GW.

Webelievethetimingoftheclosingandannouncementofthesedealswasnotrandom.Over2022,despiteEuropeanenergymarketsundergoingthemostturbulentyearintheirrecent

history,PPAsexhibitedremarkableresiliency.Despitetheimpressivelystableactivitylastyear,ourgutfeelingwastellingusthatcorporateambitionwasmuchlargerthanthedealflownumbers

indicated.Turnsout,therealappetiterevealeditselfinQ12023,aswebelievemanyofthesedealswereleftoversfromnegotiationsthatweredelayedduetothevolatilityandunfavourable-for-the-buyerspricinglevels.

MonthlyPPAactivityin2023,disclosedvolumesinMW

CorporateUtilityUnknown/Developer

2,549

1,194

2,272

2,071

1,405

1,809

936

1,231

699

1,204

1,768

1,643

1,159

1,132

936

807

731

1,147

357

816

1,026

618

212

866

263

232

84

342

388

318

314

4

739

469

106

318

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

Source:

PexaQuote

,PPATrackerNote:‘Other’mostlyreferstoelectrolyserdevelopers

14EUROPEANPPAMARKETOUTLOOK2024

Evenso,thehistoricalpatternhasn’twhollydeviatedfromthereality,becauseQ4wasindeed

thestrongestintermsofdealcount,with81deals.Infact,October’23didnotonlyconstitutethemonthwiththemostPPAannouncementsovertheyear,butever!SuchdataconfirmthehighdealactivityinQ4overallthepastyears,asmanynegotiationsarerushingtowrapupdeal-making

aheadoftheyear-end.

MonthlyPPAactivityin2023bydealcount(#deals)

CorporateUtilityUnknown/Developer

15

29

22

24

19

17

24

21

25

19

23

18

24

19

34

23

24

29

21

19

7

15

10

7

9

1

7

5

2

2

1

6

4

1

1

3

2

4

1

3

4

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

OctNovDec

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23

‘23‘23‘23

Source:

PexaQuote

,PPATrackerNote:‘Other’mostlyreferstoelectrolyserdevelopers

ForamonthlycommentaryonPPA

activity;PPApricingtrends;alongside

spotlightanalysisonkeytrendsand

communityinsights,subscribetoour

monthlypublication,PPATimes

here

.

80%

64%

64%

70%

60%

50%

40%

60%

48%

50%

15EUROPEANPPAMARKETOUTLOOK2024

THEBALANCEBETWEENCORPORATE

ANDUTILITYOFFTAKESIMPROVED

CorporatesmaintainedtheleadpositionindrivingthePPAmarket,buttherewasanuptickinutilityofftakes.Thenumbersrevealthatin2023,corporatesaccountedfor73%ofvol