國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）：哈薩克斯坦：2023年第四條磋商報(bào)告

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

IMFCountryReportNo.24/46

REPUBLICOFKAZAKHSTAN

February2024

2023ARTICLEIVCONSULTATION—PRESSRELEASE;STAFFREPORT;ANDSTATEMENTBYTHEEXECUTIVEDIRECTORFORREPUBLICOFKAZAKHSTAN

UnderArticleIVoftheIMF'sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussions

withmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Inthecontextofthe2023ArticleIVconsultationwithRepublicofKazakhstan,thefollowingdocumentshavebeenreleasedandareincludedinthispackage

APressReleasesummarizingtheviewsoftheExecutiveBoardasexpressedduringitsJanuary31,2024,considerationofthestaffreportthatconcludedtheArticleIV

consultationwithRepublicofKazakhstan.

TheStaffReportpreparedbyastaffteamoftheIMFfortheExecutiveBoard'sconsiderationonJanuary31,2024,followingdiscussionsthatendedon

November21,2023,withtheofficialsofRepublicofKazakhstanoneconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Basedoninformationavailableatthetimeofthese

discussions,thestaffreportwascompletedonJanuary16,2024.

·AnInformationalAnnexpreparedbytheIMFstaff.

·AStatementbytheExecutiveDirectorforRepublicofKazakhstan.

Thedocumentslistedbelowwillbeseparatelyreleased.

SelectedIssues

FinancialSystemStabilityAssessment

TheIMF'stransparencypolicyallowsforthedeletionofmarket-sensitiveinformationandprematuredisclosureoftheauthorities'policyintentionsinpublishedstaffreportsandotherdocuments.

Copiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfrom

InternationalMonetaryFund·PublicationServices

POBox92780·Washington,D.C.20090

Telephone:(202)623-7430·Fax:(202)623-7201

F-mailpublications@imforaWeb:htto·//wwwimforg

InternationalMonetaryFund

Washington,D.C.

◎2024InternationalMonetaryFund

PRESSRELEASE

PR24/42

IMFExecutiveBoardConcludesthe2023ArticleIVConsultationwiththeRepublicofKazakhstan

FORIMMEDIATERELEASE

Washington,DC—February7,2024:TheExecutiveBoardoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)concludedthe2023ArticleIVconsultation1withtheRepublicofKazakhstan.

In2024,Kazakhstan'seconomicgrowthisexpectedtoslowto3.1percent,mostlyduetodelaysin

expandingtheTengizoilfield,whileinflation,whichisstillwellabovetheauthorities'target,would

continuetodecline.Acurrentaccountdeficitof3.9percentofGDPisprojectedfor2024,andthebankingsectorshouldremainsoundamideasingfinancialconditions.Inthemedium-term,non-oilGDPgrowth

wouldstabilizeataround31zpercent,andinflationwouldeasegraduallytoreach5percentby2026-27,assumingacceleratedreformimplementation.`

Riskstotheoutlookremaintiltedtothedownsideandinclude:delayedreformimplementation;oilprice

declines,furtherdelaysintheTengizfieldexpansion,anddisruptionstooilexportsthroughtheCaspianPipelineConsortium(CPC)pipeline;slowgrowthintradingpartners;spilloversfromthewarinUkraine

andgeo-economicfragmentation;and,increasedsocialtensions.Upsiderisksincludeacceleratedreformimplementation,higheroilprices,andhigher-than-expectedforeigninvestmentinnewsectors.

Theauthoritieshavecontinuedtheireffortstosecuremacroeconomicstability.TheNationalBankof

Kazakhstanmaintainedtightmonetarypolicythroughout2023.Theauthoritiesremaincommittedto

medium-termfiscalconsolidationandhaveundertakensignificanteffortstoincreasetradediversificationandaddressgovernanceandcorruptionvulnerabilities.Arecentlyadoptedclimatestrategyprioritizesthedevelopmentofrenewableenergysourcestohelpreducecarbonemissionsfromcurrentlyhighlevels.

Withslowstructuralreformimplementationinrecentyears,thestate'sfootprintintheeconomyremainslarge.

AccordingtotherecentlycompletedFinancialSectorAssessmentProgram(FSAP),thebankingsystemappearswell-capitalizedinaggregate.Kazakhstanisexposedtotransitionriskfromdomesticandglobalclimatepolicies.Bankingsupervisionhasbecomemorerisk-based,butrelatedpartytransactionsremainchallengingtomonitorandconsolidatedsupervisionisstillincomplete.

Finally,thereremaingapsinthefinancialsafetynetsandcrisismanagementarrangements.

1UnderArticleIVoftheIMF'sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Astaffteamvisitsthecountry,collectseconomicandfinancialinformation,anddiscusseswithofficialsthe

country'seconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Onreturntoheadquarters,thestaffpreparesareport,whichformsthebasisfordiscussionbytheExecutiveBoard.

2

ExecutiveBoardAssessment2

ExecutiveDirectorsagreedwiththethrustofthestaffappraisal.TheypositivelynotedKazakhstan’seconomicresilienceinthefaceofmultipleexternalshocksandwelcomedthestronggrowthin2023.Notingthatriskstotheoutlookaretiltedtothedownside,Directorscalledforcontinuedprudent

macroeconomicpoliciesandacceleratedimplementationofstructuralreformstomaintainstrongandresilientgrowth.

Directorswelcomedtheauthorities’commitmenttofiscalconsolidationwhichwouldsupportdisinflationandhelppreservebuffers.Theyunderscoredthattheplannedintroductionofnewtaxandbudgetcodesisanopportunitytoenhancenon-oilrevenuesandpublicfinancialmanagement.Directorsalsowelcomedthereinstatementofthefiscalrulesin2024andstressedthattherulesshouldbesimplifiedandbetter

enforced,includingthroughthecreationofanindependentfiscalcouncilandstrongerescapeclauses.SwiftimplementationoftherecommendationsfromtherecentFiscalTransparencyEvaluationwouldenhancepublicdataquality.

Directorswelcomedthedecliningtrendofinflation.TheyurgedtheNationalBankofKazakhstan(NBK)tocontinuetomaintainacautiousanddatadependentapproachbykeepingmonetarypolicytightuntil

inflationisclosetotargetandinflationexpectationsarewellanchored.Directorsalsorecommended

strengtheningthecredibilityandeffectivenessofthemonetarypolicyframework,includingbyimprovingtheNBK’sgovernanceandindependence.Theyencouragedacarefulanalysisofthemacro-financialimplicationsandgovernancerequirementsoftheDigitalTengebeforeitsfullpubliclaunch.

ReflectingthefindingsfromtherecentlycompletedFinancialSectorAssessmentProgram(FSAP),

Directorswelcomedtheoverallsoundnessofthefinancialsectorandprogressinrisk-basedsupervision.

TheysupportedtheFSAP’srecommendationstocontinuestrengtheningfinancialresilienceandpolicyframeworks.Effortscouldfocusonclosingdatagaps,upgradingthebankresolutionandcrisis

managementframework,andreinforcingtheindependence,powers,andresourcesoftheresolutionauthority,supportedbycapacitydevelopment.

2Attheconclusionofthediscussion,theManagingDirector,asChairmanoftheBoard,summarizestheviewsofExecutiveDirectors,andthissummaryistransmittedtothecountry'sauthorities.Anexplanationofanyqualifiersusedinsummingsupcanbefoundhere:

http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm

.

3

Directorsencouragedtheauthoritiestoacceleratestructuralreformstoboostcompetitiveness,promotediversificationandsustainstrongerlong-termeconomicgrowth.Keyprioritiesincludedownsizingthe

statefootprintintheeconomyandimprovingpublicsectorgovernance,reducingcorruption-relatedvulnerabilities,addressinginfrastructuregapsandremovingtradedistortions.

Directorsemphasizedtheimportanceofacceleratingreformstostrengthenclimateresilienceandmeettheauthorities’carbonemissiontargetsby2030.Theyalsocalledforclosemonitoringofclimate-relatedrisksinthefinancialsector.

4

Kazakhstan:SelectedEconomicIndicators,2021–25

2021

2022

202320242025

(est.)

(proj.)

(proj.)

Output

RealGDPgrowth(%)

4.3

3.2

4.8

3.1

5.7

Realoil

-0.6

-1.7

7.1

0.1

14.4

Realnon-oil

5.5

4.7

4.2

3.9

3.4

Crudeoilandgascondensateproduction(milliontons)

85.7

84.2

90.0

90.3

103.0

Employment

Unemployment(%)

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

Prices

Inflation(%,eop)

8.4

20.3

9.8

7.7

6.2

Generalgovernmentfinances

Revenue(%GDP)

17.1

21.8

23.1

20.7

20.6

Oilrevenue

4.3

8.0

6.4

5.3

5.4

Non-oilrevenue

12.9

13.8

16.7

15.4

15.1

Expenditures(%GDP)

22.1

21.7

22.9

21.8

21.5

Fiscalbalance(%GDP)

-5.0

0.1

0.1

-1.2

-0.9

Non-oilfiscalbalance(%GDP)

-9.3

-7.9

-6.3

-6.4

-6.4

Grosspublicdebt(%GDP)

25.1

23.5

22.7

23.0

25.1

Netpublicdebt(%GDP)

-3.0

-1.2

-1.0

-0.4

-0.1

Moneyandcredit

Broadmoney(%change)

20.8

13.9

16.4

17.3

14.0

Credittotheprivatesector(%GDP)

24.4

21.5

17.0

18.2

16.7

NBKpolicyrate(%,eop)

9.8

16.8

15.8

…

…

Balanceofpayments

Currentaccount(%GDP)

-1.4

3.1

-3.5

-3.9

-2.3

Netforeigndirectinvestments(%GDP)

-1.0

-3.6

-3.4

-3.3

-3.6

NBKreserves(inmonthsofnextyear'simportsofG&S)

6.9

5.9

6.0

5.8

5.9

NFRKassets(%ofGDP)

28.1

24.7

23.7

23.4

25.2

Externaldebt(%GDP)

83.3

71.7

65.6

61.7

58.7

Exchangerate

Exchangerate(y-o-ypercentchange;TengeperU.S.dollar;eop)

2.6

6.8

-1.6

…

…

Sources:KazakhstaniauthoritiesandFundstaffestimatesandprojections.

January16,2024

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

REPUBLICOFKAZAKHSTAN

STAFFREPORTFORTHE2023ARTICLEIVCONSULTATION

KEYISSUES

Context.Growthisestimatedtohavereached4.8percentin2023andisprojectedtoslowto3.1percentin2024.Inflationdeclinedto9.8percentin2023,stillwellabovetheNationalBankofKazakhstan(NBK)'stargetof5percent.Riskstotheoutlookaretiltedtothedownside.Thestate'sfootprintintheeconomyremainslargeandstructural

reformimplementationhasbeenslowinrecentyears.Despitestrongbuffers,the

economyneedstobebetterpreparedforfutureshocksinboththeshortterm(e.g,fromwarspillovers,inflation,andglobaleconomicandfinancialconditions)andthemediumterm(e.g.,fromgeo-economicfragmentation,climateevents,andglobaldecarbonization).

Recommendations.Toimprovemacroeconomicmanagementandraisemedium-termeconomicgrowthprospects,reformprioritiesaretostrengtheneconomicinstitutionsandlimitdiscretionaryinterventionsacrosspolicyareas:

·Monetarypolicy.Withmanyuncertaintiesaffectingtheshort-termoutlook,monetarypolicyshouldremaintightuntilinflationisclosertotargetandinflationexpectationsarere-anchored.Tosupportthis,thereissignificantroomtofurtherstrengthentheNBK'sindependenceandtheeffectivenessandcredibilityofmonetarypolicy.

·Fiscalpolicy.Strongerpublicsectorgovernance,amorerules-basedpolicy

framework,andgreaterinstitutionalcapacitytounderpinfiscalprojections,willbekeytoincreasetheeffectivenessoffiscalpolicyandsupportthecredibilityof

medium-termfiscalconsolidationplans.

●Financialsector.Buildingonrecentprogress,strongerfinancialsupervisionandmoreeffectivecrisismanagementandbankresolutionframeworksrequiregreater

independence,legalprotection,andresourcesfortheAgencyforRegulationand

DevelopmentoftheFinancialMarket(ARDFM),aswellasclearermandatesof,and

inter-agencycollaborationamong,theARDFMandotherrelevantpublicentities.

StructuralreformsareessentialtoadvanceKazakhstan'stransitiontoafully-fledgedmarketeconomyandpromoteamorevibrantprivatesectorthatwillleadfuturejobcreationandeconomicdiversificationandgrowth.Prioritiesaretoreduceand

refocusstateinterventions,movetomorerules-basedinstitutionalframeworks,andcontinueimprovingthebusinessenvironment,includingbystrengtheningtheruleoflaw,especiallypropertyrights,contractenforcement,andinvestorprotection.

REPUBLICOFKAZAKHSTAN

2

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

ApprovedBy

SubirLall(MCD)andFabianBornhorst

(SPR)

DiscussionstookplaceinAlmatyandAstanaduringNovember

8-21,2023.TheteamcomprisedN.Blancher(head),A.Hajdenberg,G.Impavido(MCD),A.Zdzienicka(MCM),andD.Yao(LEG,

remotely).ThemissionmetwithPrimeMinisterSmailov,Deputy

PrimeMinisterandMinisterofFinanceZhamaubayev,NationalBankofKazakhstanGovernorSuleimenov,MinisterofNationalEconomyKuantyrov,ChairpersonoftheAgencyforRegulationand

DevelopmentoftheFinancialMarketAbylkassymova,other

governmentofficials,andrepresentativesfrominternationalfinancialinstitutions,theprivatesector,diplomaticcommunity,andmedia.

P.Grippa(MCM,FSAPmissionchief)andM.Zhunusbekova(OED)attendedsomeofthemeetings.Themissionwassupportedby

O.Bissekeyeva(localoffice),S.Arzoumanian,andM.Orihuela(HQ).

CONTENTS

Glossary

4

CONTEXT

5

RECENTDEVELOPMENTS

5

OUTLOOKANDRISKS

9

STRENGHTHENINGMACRO-FINANCIALPOLICYFRAMEWORKS

10

A.MonetaryPolicy

10

B.FiscalPolicy

10

C.FinancialSectorPolicy

12

D.ExternalSector

12

STRUCTURALREFORMSTOMANAGELONG-TERMTRANSITIONS

13

A.RethinkingtheRoleoftheStatetoFosterPrivateSector-LedGrowth

13

B.PromotingEconomicGreening

14

C.ProtectingtheMostVulnerable

15

STAFFAPPRAISAL

17

BOXES

1.MeasuringtheState’sFootprint

8

2.SocialSafetyNets

16

REPUBLICOFKAZAKHSTAN

3

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

FIGURES

1.EconomicDevelopments

19

2.FiscalSectorDevelopments

20

3.BankingSectorDevelopments

21

4.ExternalSectorDevelopments

22

5.MonetarySectorDevelopments

23

6.BusinessEnvironmentandGovernance

24

TABLES

1.SelectedEconomicIndicators,2021–28

25

2.BalanceofPayments,2021–28

26

3.NetInternationalInvestmentPosition,2021–28

27

4.FinancialSoundnessIndicatorsoftheBankingSector,2020-22

28

5.MonetaryAccounts,2021–28

29

6a.GeneralGovernmentFiscalOperations,2021–28(Inbillionsoftenge)

30

6b.GeneralGovernmentFiscalOperations,2021–28(InpercentofGDP)

31

7.InclusiveGrowthIndicators

32

ANNEXES

I.Implementationofthe2022ArticleIVRecommendations

33

II.ExternalSectorAssessment

34

III.RiskAssessmentMatrix

37

IV.SovereignRiskandDebtSustainabilityAssessment

40

V.SelectedFSAPRecommendations

46

REPUBLICOFKAZAKHSTAN

4

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

Glossary

AIFC

AstanaInternationalFinancialCenter

AML/CFT

AntiMoneyLaundering/CombatingtheFinancingofTerrorism

ARA

AssessingReserveAdequacy

ARDFM

AgencyforRegulationandDevelopmentoftheFinancialMarket

CBDC

CentralBankDigitalCurrency

CCA

CaucasusandCentralAsia

CCAMTAC

Caucasus,CentralAsia,andMongoliaTechnicalAssistanceCenter

CFM

CapitalFlowManagementMeasure

CIT

CorporateIncomeTax

CPC

CaspianPipelineConsortium

DT

DigitalTenge

FAD

FiscalAffairsDepartment,IMF

FSAP

FinancialSectorAssessmentProgram

FTE

FiscalTransparencyEvaluation

FX

ForeignCurrency

GDP

GrossDomesticProduct

GFS

GovernmentFinanceStatistics

GIR

GrossInternationalReserves

IMF

InternationalMonetaryFund

IT

InformationTechnology

KDIF

DepositInsuranceGuaranteeFund

LEG

LegalDepartment,IMF

MCM

MonetaryandCapitalMarketsDepartment,IMF

MNE

MinistryofNationalEconomy

MOF

MinistryofFinance

NBK

NationalBankofKazakhstan

NDC

NationallyDeterminedContributions

NFRK

NationalFundoftheRepublicofKazakhstan

PIT

PersonalIncomeTax

PFM

PublicFinanceManagement

REER

RealEffectiveExchangeRate

SDR

SpecialDrawingRights

SIP

SelectedIssuesPaper

SME

SmallandMediumEnterprise

SOE

StateOwnedEnterprise

STA

StatisticsDepartment,IMF

TA

TechnicalAssistance

TSA

TargetedSocialAssistance

VAT

ValueAddedTax

WB

WorldBank

REPUBLICOFKAZAKHSTAN

5

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

5.In2023,thefiscalstanceis

estimatedtohavebeencontractionaryduetoverystrongnon-oilrevenues

(Figure2).Spendinggrewby1.2percentofGDP(includinginfrastructureandsocialexpendituresrelatedtotheelections)as

fiscalrulesweresuspended,while

revenuesincreasedby1.3percentofGDP.Oilrevenuesdeclinedby1.4percentof

GDPinlinewithloweroilprices,butnon-oiltaxrevenuesroseby1.7percentof

CONTEXT

1.Kazakhstanneedstosquarelypositionitselftowithstandfutureshort-termshocks

andlonger-termstructuralchanges.Strongbuffersandpolicyresponseshelpedmanagemultipleshocksinrecentyears.However,theexternalenvironmentwillremainhighlyuncertaininboththeshortterm(e.g.,duetospilloversfromRussia’swarinUkraine,inflation,andglobaleconomicand

financialconditions)andthemediumterm(e.g.,duetogeo-economicfragmentation,climateevents,andglobaldecarbonization).

2.Politicalstabilityprovidesanopportunityforeconomicreforms.Recentpolitical

reforms,aswellasparliamentaryandpresidentialelectionsinlate2022andearly2023,couldusherinaperiodofsustainedpoliticalstabilityconducivetoacceleratedeconomicreformsandstructuraltransformationofKazakhstan’seconomy.

3.Strongerinstitutionsandamorevibrantprivatesectorwillbekeytoreachthe

authorities’goalsofhigher,moreresilient,andgreenergrowth.TomakeKazakhstan’smacro-financialpolicyframeworksmoreeffectiveandadvanceitstransitiontoamoremarket-basedanddiversifiedeconomy,arangeofreformsneedtobeimplementeddecisively.Anoverarchingpriorityremainstoimprovepublicgovernanceandreducewidespreadandoftendiscretionarystate

interventionsintheeconomy,whichweakenmacroeconomicmanagementandgrowthprospects.

RECENTDEVELOPMENTS

4.Economicgrowthisestimatedtohavereached4.8percentin2023(Figure1,Table1).Todate,theimpactofthewarinUkraineoneconomicactivityhasbeenlimited:Kazakhstanhasexperiencedlimitedimmigrationofskilledlaborandrelocationofforeignfirms;theresolutionofsanctionedRussianbanksubsidiaries;somecapitaloutflowsandexchangeratevolatility;and

changingtradepatterns(seebelow).In2023,growthwasdrivenbybothoilandnon-oilsectors

(e.g.,construction,trade,andcommunications),aswellasbyprivateandpublicconsumptionandinvestment.Realwagegrowthstabilizedfollowingsharpincreasesinpreviousyears.Strongcreditgrowth(about20percent),especiallyforhouseholdsandSMEs,supportedactivity.

SelectedFiscalIndicators

(InpercentofGDP)

Projections

202220232024

Totalrevenue

Oil

Non-oil

ofwhichextraordinarydividendTotalexpenditureandnetlending

Overallbalance

Structuraloverallbalance

Non-oilbalance

Structuralnon-oilbalance

Fiscalstance1/

21.8

8.0

13.8

…

21.7

0.1

0.1

-7.9

-8.1

1.2

23.1

6.4

16.7

1.1

22.9

0.2

-1.1

-6.3

-7.7

0.4

20.75.3

15.4

…

21.8-1.2-1.2-6.4-6.7

1.0

1/Definedasthechangeinthestructuralnon-oilbalance

REPUBLICOFKAZAKHSTAN

6

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

6.Inflationfellin2023,butinflation

expectationshavedriftedup.BetweenFebruaryandDecember,inflationdecreasedfrom21to

9.8percent,duetoalargebaseeffect,lowerfoodprices,exchangerateappreciation,andmonetarypolicytightening.However,seasonallyadjusted

monthlyinflationhasacceleratedsinceJune,

drivenlargelybytheimpactofdomesticenergyandutilitypriceincreases.Furthermore,oneyear-aheadinflationexpectationshaveremainedhighandincreasedfrom14to16.4percentbetween

FebruaryandDecember.2

GDP,drivenbypersonalincomeandsocialtaxes(reflectingrapidwagegrowth)andVATrevenues(givenstrongimports,retailsales,andlowerrefunds).Revenueswereboostedbyanextraordinarydividendfromstate-ownedenterprises(SOEs)ofover1percentofGDP.1Asaresult,theoverallfiscalbalanceisestimatedtohaveremainedclosetozeroin2023,butthestructuralnon-oil

balance(whichexcludestheone-offSOEdividend)improvedbyabout?percentofGDP.

InflationandExpectations

(Percent)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

OldNBKtargetband

Inflation1/

Expectations

CurrentNBKpointtarget

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Oct-21

Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Mar-22

Apr-22

May-22

Jun-22

Jul-22

Aug-22

Sep-22

Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Source:NBKandIMFstaffestimates.

1/AnnualizedMoMSeasonallyAdjustedCPIinflation.

7.Thepolicyratewasreducedby100bpsto15.75percentbetweenAugustand

November2023(Figure5).TheinflationtargetwasadjustedinJuly(to5percent,fromthe

previous3-4percentrange),andtheNBKGovernorwasunexpectedlydismissedinSeptember.

Theseeventsmayhavecontributedtopersistentlyhighinflationexpectations,althoughthenewGovernortookrapidstepstocommunicateandreassuremarketparticipantsthatmonetarypolicywouldnotbeloosenedprematurely.Kazakhstan’scentralbankdigitalcurrency,theDigitalTenge(DT),wasofficiallyintroducedinNovember,andisexpectedtobefullyoperationalizedby2025.3

8.Acurrentaccountdeficitof3.5percentofGDPisestimatedfor2023,amidchangingtradepatterns(Figure4).Thedeteriorationoftheexternalpositionwasdrivenbyloweroilpricesandhighimportvolumes,consistentwithstrongdomesticdemandandrealeffectiveexchangerate(REER)appreciation(about11percentinthefirstthreequartersof2023).Basedonpreliminary

data,theexternalpositionisassessedasmoderatelyweakerthanwhatisimpliedbyeconomic

fundamentalsanddesirablepoliciesin2023(AnnexII).AstructuralbreakintradeflowshasbeenobservedsincethewarinUkrainestarted,withseveralpartnercountriesreducingtheirexportsto

1TheNationalFundoftheRepublicofKazakhstan(NFRK)purchaseda20percentstakeinKazMunayGas,withproceedsfromthesaletransferredtothegovernmentbythestateholdingcompanySamruk-Kazyna.

22023SelectedIssuesPaper:DriversofInflation.

32023SelectedIssuesPaper:TheKazakhstanDigitalTengeProject.TheDTshouldbeavailableforofflineandcross-bordertransactionsonceremainingtechnicalissuesareaddressedbasedoninitialexperience(includingwith

respecttothedesiredlevelofanonymity,feasibilityofunlimitedofflinetransactionsandlow-costpayments,andneededlegalandregulatoryamendments).

REPUBLICOFKAZAKHSTAN

7

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

2022Q2-2023Q1share

ChangeinExportSharetoKazakhstan

(PercentofexportstoKazakhstanandRussia)

70

60

Relativeincrease

50

Relativedecrease

40

30

20

10

0

PAK

CAN

USA

MEX

ARE

CZE

GEO

NOR

DNK

LTU

CHN

ITA

TUR

AUS

GBR

KOR

UZB

KGZ

KEN

FRA

010203040506070

2021Q2-2022Q1share

Source:IMFDirectionofTradeStatisticsdatabase,andstaffcalculations.

Oct-21

Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Mar-22

Apr-22

May-22

Jun-22

Jul-22

Aug-22

Sep-22

Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

DepositsDollarization

(Percent,end-of-period,non-seasonallyadjusted)1/

45

40

35

30

25

20

CorporatesHouseholds