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FACTORSAFFECTINGMICRO,SMALL,ANDMEDIUM-SIZEDENTERPRISEDEVELOPMENTINDEVELOPINGASIA
FINDINGSFROMAPROBABILISTICPRINCIPAL
COMPONENTANALYSIS
ShigehiroShinozaki,DaisukeMiyakawa,andRomeoArahan
NO.715
ADBECONOMICS
=******E****=*E*#E*EFEFHE*EF#F#E*F#E
February2024
WORKINGPAPERSERIES
ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK
ADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeries
FactorsAffectingMicro,Small,andMedium-Sized
EnterpriseDevelopmentinDevelopingAsia:
FindingsfromaProbabilisticPrincipalComponentAnalysis
ShigehiroShinozaki,DaisukeMiyakawa,
andRomeoArahan
No.715|February2024
TheADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeries
presentsresearchinprogresstoelicitcommentsandencouragedebateondevelopmentissuesinAsiaandthePacific.Theviewsexpressed
arethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesofADBor
tsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.
ShigehiroShinozaki(sshinozaki@)isasenior
economistandRomeoArahan(rarahan.consultant@
)isaconsultantattheEconomicResearchand
DevelopmentlmpactDepartment.DaisukeMiyakawa
(damiyak@waseda.jp)isaprofessoratWaseda
University,andchiefeconomistofUTokyoEconomic
ConsultingInc.(UTEcon).
ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK
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DOl:
/10.22617/WPS240032-2
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ABSTRACT
Limiteddataonmicro,small,andmedium-sizedenterprises(MSMEs)makeitdifficultforgovernmentstodesignappropriateMSMEpoliciesinAsiaandthePacific.ToidentifyfactorsaffectingMSMEdevelopmentandpromoteevidence-basedpolicymaking,weproposeaprobabilisticprincipalcomponentanalysismethodthatworksdespitecurrentdatalimitations.Thestudyusestime-seriesMSMEdatacollectedfrom25developingmembercountriesoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)throughtheAsiaSmallandMedium-SizedEnterpriseMonitorproject.TheestimationresultssuggestthatsoundMSMEcreditmarkets,diversifiedfinancingoptions,supportfornewbusinessesandjobcreation,andactiveMSMEparticipationinglobalmarketplacesplayacriticalroleinensuringasmoothbusinessrecoveryfromvariouscrisesandshocksaffectingdevelopingAsiaandthePacific.
Keywords:SMEdevelopment,accesstofinance,financialinclusion,SMEpolicy,probabilisticprincipalcomponentanalysis,SoutheastAsia,SouthAsia,CentralandWestAsia,thePacific
JELcodes:D22,G20,L20,L50
1.Introduction
DevelopingAsianeconomiescontinuetorecoverfromthecoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)
pandemicthatbeganinMarch2020,althougheconomicgrowthdiffersbycountry.Continuous
globaleconomicuncertainty,however,hasamplifieddownsiderisks—includinghighinflation,
currencydepreciation,andglobalsupplychaindisruptionsacceleratedbyregionalpolitical
turbulence.InSoutheastAsia,arecoveryintourismpartlycontributedtotheregion's5.6%growth
in2022;butitisforecasttodropto4.6%in2023givencontinuedweakexports.InSouthAsia,
economicandpoliticalcrisesinPakistanandSriLankapushedtheregion'sgrowthdownfrom
6.7%in2022to5.4%in2023.InCentralandWestAsia,theongoingimpactfromtheRussian
invasionofUkrainehelpedlowertheregion'sgrowthfrom5.1%in2022toaforecast4.6%in
2023.InthePacific,astrongpost-pandemictourismreboundenergizedtheregion'ssharp
economicrecoveryto6.1%growthin2022;butitisforecasttoslowto3.5%in2023partlydueto
laborshortagesacceleratedbyemigrationfromsmallislandcountriestoAustraliaandNew
Zealand(ADB2023a).
Micro,small,andmedium-sizedenterprises(MSMEs)helpdrivegrowthacrossdevelopingAsiaandthePacific,giventheirlargeshareofbusinessenterprises,jobcreation,andeconomicoutput.Giventheirimpact,governmentsintheregionhavetakenseveralpolicymeasurestopromoteMSMEdevelopment.Theycommonlypromoteentrepreneurialdevelopment(especiallyforyouthandwomen),useoftechnologythatencouragesbusinessinnovation,expandedmarketaccessbyinternationalizingMSMEs,humancapitalandskillsdevelopment,andbetteraccesstofinance.ButconstraintsonMSMEdevelopmentremaininmostcountries.Theseincludealackofanentrepreneurialculture,highdependenceoncashtransactionsthatstymieinnovation,alargepercentageofunregisteredorinformalbusinesses,limitedexportsorparticipationinglobalmarkets,skilledlaborshortages,andstructuralproblemslimitingaccesstoformalfinancialservicesforworkingandgrowthcapital.ThisraisesthequestionhowgovernmentscanenhancepoliciesandtheirimplementationtopromoteMSMEdevelopmenttowardmoreinclusive,resilientgrowth
BetterunderstandingtheMSMEbusinessenvironmentandstructuralproblemsthatinhibitgrowthiscriticalbeforedesigningafeasiblepolicyframeworkonMSMEassistance.However,thelackofdataonMSMEsmakesthisextremelydifficult.Tohelpgovernmentspromoteevidence-basedMSMEpolicymaking,theAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)has,since2020,providedbenchmarkindicatorsonMSMEdevelopmentandaccesstofinancethroughitsannualAsiaSmallandMedium-SizedEnterpriseMonitor(ASM).AsofNovember2023,theASMcoversMSMEsin25ADBdevelopingmembersinSoutheastAsia,SouthAsia,CentralandWestAsia,andthePacific.Insufficientdata,however,remainsamajorproblem.
AsolidquantitativeevaluationonMSMEdevelopmentusingsufficient,accurate,andcomparabledataremainsachallengebothnationallyandregionally.IncompletedataonMSMEsledglobalinstitutions—suchastheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD),theEconomicResearchInstituteforASEANandEastAsia(ERIA),andtheInternationalTradeCentre(ITC)—toproposeaqualitativeapproachusingassessmentmatricesforperformanceratingsormediancomparisonsbasedonavailabledatatoevaluateMSMEdevelopmentandcompetitiveness,bothnationallyandregionally.
TheASMprojecthasalsoexploredanewwaytoquantitativelyidentifyfactorsaffectingMSMEdevelopmentthroughitsASMdatabase.In2021,itdevelopedanewtrialthatdealswithMSMEdatalimitations—avariantofastandardprincipalcomponentanalysis(PCA)thatsupplementssomemissingMSMEdata—aprobabilisticPCA(ADB2022).Thepilottestcovered15countries
2
fromSoutheastAsiaandSouthAsiaalongwithafirm-leveldataanalysisforVietNam.WhilethiscontributedtothenewMSMEdevelopmentindex,insufficientdatalimitedtheproposedmodel'sabilitytoestimatemoreaccuratelythefactorsthatrepresentMSMEactivities.Moretest-runsforadditionalcountriesareneededtoproduceareliableindexconducivetoevidence-basedpolicydesignonMSMEsintheregion.In2023,wesuccessfullycompiledtime-seriesMSMEdatacovering25countries.Withthisnewdataset,thisstudyre-estimatesfactorsthatexplaintheMSMEdevelopmentpathbyregionandcountryandrethinkshowtodevelopaquantitativeapproachtobetterassessMSMEdevelopment.
Section2summarizestheMSMElandscapeindevelopingAsia,extractedfromADB(2023b).Section3reviewsglobalMSMEdatainitiativesinAsiaandthePacific.Section4explainsthemethodologyanddatasetusedforanalysis.Section5discussestheestimationresultsinfourgroups—(i)allcountries,(ii)SoutheastAsia,(ii)SouthAsia,and(iv)CentralandWestAsia.ThisisfollowedbyassociatedpolicyimplicationsinSection6andconclusionsinSection7.
2.MSMELandscapeinDevelopingAsia
MSMEsdominatetheprivatesectorinAsiaandthePacific.AccordingtoADB(2023b),basedon
availabledatainparticipatingcountriesthrough2022,MSMEsinAsiaandthePacificaccounted
foranaverage96.6%ofallenterprises,55.8%ofthetotalworkforce,and28%ofacountry's
economicoutput(Table1).DatacollecteddependonthenationalMSMEdefinitionofeach
country.MostMSMEsservesmalldomesticmarkets,withmanyengagedindistributivetradeand
informalbusiness.Cashdominatestheirbusinessmodelandthereislittleincentivetogrow
further—categorizedas“stability-oriented”firms.Withalargebaseofinformalbusinesses,the
officialMSMEcontributiontoacountry'seconomicoutputislikelywellbelowitsactualimpact.
Nonetheless,"growth-oriented"andinnovativefirmsthatwanttoexpandintoglobalmarketshave
graduallyincreasedacrosstheregion,althoughtheyremainasmallfractionofMSMEs.Based
onavailabledatathrough2022,MSMEexportsaccountedforanaverage26.3%oftotalexport
Lowbusinessdiversificationlimitsacountry'sgrowthpotential,suggestingtheneedforcreating
value.AndMSMEexportgrowthisslowing,mainlyduetotheweakexportenvironmentglobally.
moreinnovativeandglobalizedsmallfirms,startups,andanentrepreneurialbase,bothnationally
andregionally
LimitedaccesstofinanceremainsachronicbarriertoMSMEgrowth.TheMSMEcreditmarket
remainssmallinAsiaandthePacific.ADB(2023b)reportedthatbankloanstoMSMEsaveraged
10.6%ofacountry'sgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)and22%oftotalbanklending.Thepandemic
responseboostedcommercialbanklendingtoMSMEs,providedgovernmentemergency
financialassistanceorstrengthenednewlendingtoMSMEsthroughsubsidizedloanprograms,
refinancingfacilities,andspecialcreditguarantees.Despitethis,MSMEnonperformingloans
remainedhigh,averaging7.2%oftotalMSMEbankloansintheregion.Thelackofalternative
financingoptionsbeyondtraditionalbankcreditlimitsinnovationandbusinessopportunitiesfor
viableMSMEs,startups,andentrepreneurs.
3
Table1:MSMEsinDevelopingAsiaandthePacific
(percentageshare)
AllCountries
SoutheastAsia
SouthAsia
CentralandWestAsia
MSMEdevelopment
·NumberofMSMEsto
96.6%
98.0%
99.6%
99.2%
totalenterprises
·MSMEemployeesto
55.8%
66.4%
76.6%
51.9%
totalemployees
·MSMEcontributiontoeconomicoutput
28.0%
41.2%
17.7%
41.5%
·MSMEexportstototalexportvalue
26.3%
13.3%
37.4%
28.3%
Accesstofinance(bankcredit)
·MSMEloanstonational10.6%13.3%5.2%11.1%
GDP
·MSMEloanstototal22.0%12.3%12.5%33.1%
bankloans
·MSMENPLstototal7.2%5.3%12.1%4.3%
MSMEloans
GDP=grossdomesticproduct,MSME=micro,small,andmedium-sizedenterprise,NPL=nonperformingloan.
Notes:Reportingcountriesonly.Databasedonlatestavailabledatauntil2022.Dataforallcountriescover25countries:10fromSoutheastAsia;5fromSouthAsia;7fromCentralandWestAsia;and3fromthePacific.
Source:AsiaSMEMonitor2023database.
3.GlobalMSMEDataInitiatives
SeveralglobalinitiativesaredevelopingindicestomeasurespecificaspectsofMSMEs-suchasaccesstomarkets,infrastructure,finance,skillsdevelopment,useoftechnologyandinnovation,businessoperationsandadministration,competitiveness,andpolicyandregulatoryframeworks(Table2).MultilateralorganizationssuchastheOECD,ERIA,ITC,andWorldBankGrouphavebeenusingvariousanalyticalapproachestoovercomethelackofsufficientMSMEdata.
TheOECDproducestworelatedreportsonSMEdevelopment:()theSMEandEntrepreneurshipOutlookand(i)FinancingSMEsandEntrepreneurships(OECDScoreboard).Launchedin2002,theEntrepreneurshipOutlookreviews6dimensionswith29subdimensionsusingcrosssectionaldataformediancomparison.Dimensionsinclude(i)institutionalandregulatoryframeworks,(il)marketconditions,(ii)infrastructure,(iv)accesstofinance,(v)accesstoskills,and(vi)accesstoinnovationassets(OECD2023).Thesubdimensionsinclude()regulations,courtsandlaws,landandhousing,publicgovernance,competition,andtaxation;(i)domesticmarkets,globalmarkets,publicprocurement,andtradeandinvestment;(ii)logistics,energy,researchanddevelopment(R&D)andinnovation,theintemetandinformationandcommunicationstechnology(ICT);(iv)self-funding,debt,thefinancialsystem,andalternativeinstruments;(v)adultliteracy,thelabormarket,entrepreneurialculture,training,andeducation;and(vi)technology,R&D,organizationandprocesses,marketing,anddata.ItcoversOECDmembers,including,fromAsia,Australia,Japan,NewZealand,andtheRepublicofKorea.
TheOECDScoreboard,launchedin2012,isanannualreportfocusingontrendsinSMEfinancingandpoliciesfor48countries.In2022,itincluded11countriesfromAsia—Australia,Georgia,Indonesia,Japan,Kazakhstan,Malaysia,NewZealand,thePeople'sRepublicofChina(PRC),theRepublicofKorea,Thailand,andTürkiye.Itreviews5financialdimensionswith25subdimensions(indicators):(i)allocationandstructureofbankcredittoSMEs;(ii)extentofpublic
4
supportforSMEfinance;(i)creditcostsandconditions;(iv)nonbanksourcesoffinance;and(v)financialhealth(OECD2022).TheOECDconstructstheindicatorsmainlyusingsupply-sidedatafromstandardizedformsfilledinbybanks,otherfinancialinstitutions,statisticsoffices,andgovernmentagencies.Thecoreindicatorsincludetotallending(overallandSMEs),newlending(overallandSMEs),short-versuslong-termSMEloans,directgovernmentSMEloans,governmentloanguarantees,interestrates(overallandSMEs),collateral(SMEs),andbankruptcies(SMEs),amongothers.
TheOECDandERIAproducedanASEANSMEPolicyIndexin2014and2018outliningthepolicylandscapeforSMEdevelopment.ItevaluatesthescopeandintensityofSMEdevelopmentpoliciesthrough8dimensionswith25subdimensions:(i)productivity,technology,andinnovation;(ii)environmentalpoliciestargetingSMEs;(ii)accesstofinance;(iv)accesstomarketsandinternationalization;(v)institutionalframework;(vi)legislation,regulation,andtaxes;(vil)entrepreneurialeducationandskills;and(viii)socialenterprisesandinclusiveentrepreneurship(OECDandERIA2018).Thesearemeasuredinthreestages:(1)planninganddesign;(i)implementation;and(il)monitoringandevaluation.ParticipatinggovemmentssharetheirSMEdataandassessSMEpolicies.Theyalsoconductsurveysofkeystakeholdersandprivatesectorrepresentativestohelpsupplymissinginformationneededforqualitativeanalysis.Foreachsubdimension,respondentsscorethestrengthsandweaknessesofcurrentSMEpoliciesonascalefrom1to6,withhigherscoresindicatingabetterlevelofpolicydevelopmentandimplementation.
TheITC'sSMECompetitivenessOutlookannuallyreviewsSMEdevelopmentandfinancingconditionsin85countriesincludingseveralfromAsia(ITC2022).ItaimstofacilitateimplementationofUnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentGoals8and9.ThereportproducesanSMECompetitivenessIndexbasedon3dimensionswith39subdimensions:(i)firmcapabilities(SME'sabilitytomanageresourcesunderitscontrol);(il)businessecosystem(resourcesandcompetenciesneededtoenhanceafirm'scompetitiveness);and(il)nationalenvironment(governmentfunctionalityandpolicyimplementation).Eachdimensionismeasuredonthreeabilities:(i)capacitytocompete(enterpriseefficiency);(ii)capacitytoconnect(informationandknowledgegathering/exploitation);and(il)capacitytochange(humanandfinancialcapitalinvestments).Theindexassessesthecompetitivestrengthsandweaknessesbyfirmsizeona0-100scale,analyzingtime-seriesdataobtainedfromsecondarydataincluding(i)theWorldBank'sEnterpriseSurveys,EaseofDoingBusinessIndex,andLogisticsPerformanceIndex;(i)theInternationalMonetaryFund's(IMF)WorldEconomicOutlook;and(ii)theITC'sMarketAccessMap.FirmsizeclassificationsusethedefinitionfromWorldBankEnterpriseSurveys.1StrengthsandweaknessesaremeasuredbasedonareferencelevelofpercapitaGDP.
Asmentioned,theWorldBankGroupregularlyreleasesthreerelatedreports:(i)theInternationalFinanceCorporation(IFC)MSMEFinanceGapReport;(ii)theEnterpriseSurveys;and(ii)theDoingBusinessreport.ThelatestIFCreportwasreleasedin2017(withupdatesasneeded),covering128countriesincluding29ADBdevelopingmembers(IFC2017).DatacovergeneralindicatorssuchasMSMElandscape,banklending,andnonbankfinancedata.Itestimatesthepotentialdemandforfinancinginemergingeconomiescomparedwithcurrentsupply,andcalculatesthe“financegap.”ThereportisconsideredabenchmarkofMSMEfinancingneedsin10advancedeconomies.MSMEcategoriesincludeindustry(manufacturing,services,orretail),
1TheEnterpriseSurveysdefinesmallfimsashaving5-19employees,mediumfirms20-99,andlargefirms100+employees.
/en/methodology
.
5
size,andage.TheWorldBankEnterpriseSurveysfurnishthedatanecessaryinconjunctionwithbenchmarkingforestimatingthepotentialdemandforMSMEfinance.
TheWorldBank'sDoingBusinessreportoffersthematicfirm-leveldataformorethan130countriescoveringfivedimensions:(i)startingabusiness;(i)hiringandfiringworkers;(ii)enforcingacontract;(iv)gettingcredit;and(v)closingabusiness.Thereportwasdiscontinuedin2021fobereplacedbytheBusinessEnablingEnvironment(BEE)Project(asofDecember2022).BEEwillfocusonsimilarindicators,addinganindicatoronmarketcompetitionandremovingthesectiononprotectingminorityinvestors.BEEwilladdanalysesondigitaladoption,environmentalsustainability,andgenderequality.
AlthoughnotfocusingonMSMEs,otherglobalinitiativesondevelopingrelevantindicesinclude(i)theGlobalCompetitivenessIndexfromtheWorldEconomicForum(WEF);(il)theGlobalInnovationIndexfromtheWorldIntellectualPropertyOrganization(WIPO);and(ii)theGlobalEntrepreneurshipIndexfromtheGlobalEntrepreneurshipandDevelopmentInstitute(GEDI).TheGlobalCompetitivenessIndex,startedin2005,covers141economiesincludingseveralinAsia(WEF2019).Itanalysesfourdimensionsofcompetitiveness,includingtheenablingenvironment,markets,humancapital,andinnovationecosystem.ItusesaggregatedatasourcedfrominternationalorganizationssuchastheWorldBankandresultsoftheWEFExecutiveOpinionSurveyconductedforbusinessexecutives.
TheGlobalInnovationIndexwaslaunchedin2007asameasuringtoolforinnovationinasocietybyusingcross-sectionaldataformediancomparisons(WIPO2022).Itissubdividedintotwosubindices—innovationinputsandinnovationoutputs.TheInnovationinputssub-indexoffersasnapshotofsociety'senablingenvironmentforinnovationandinnovativeactivities.Fiveareasaremonitored:(I)institutions;(ii)humancapitalandresearch;(ii)infrastructure;(iv)marketsophistication;and(v)businesssophistication.Theinnovationoutputssub-indexmeasurestheresultsofinnovativeactivitiesbyevaluating(vi)knowledgeandtechnologyoutputsand(vi)creativeoutputs.Theaveragescoresfrombothindicescomprisetheoverallscore.The2022editioncovered132countriesincludingseveralinAsia.
TheGlobalEntrepreneurshipIndexmeasuresacountry'sentrepreneurialecosystem,alsousingcross-sectionaldataformediancomparisons(GEDI2019).Theecosystemistheprevailingenvironmentanentrepreneurfaces.Itexaminesentrepreneurshipsintermsofattitudes,abilities,andaspirations,allpredicatedonthesociety'sentrepreneurialframework—whichincludesmarketstructure,infrastructure,theR&Dsystem,financialsector,corporatesector,government,andeducationsystem.Fourteenareasaremeasured.Acompositescoreisproduced,andthencomparednationallyandregionally.The2019reportcovered137countriesincludingseveralinAsia.
AnothertrialforexaminingfactorsaffectingMSMEdevelopment
TheglobalMSMEdatainitiativesreviewedabovemainlyusequalitativescoringmethodsbasedonnationalsurveyswithdescriptiveanalysesand/orusemediancomparisonsfromsecondarydata.ThelimitedavailabilityofMSMEdatamakesitdificultfordirectcomparisonsacrosscountries.Thus,theyhavetriedtodescribeMSMEconditionsandidentifyconstraintsonMSMEdevelopmentprimarilyusingscoringmethodsbasedonevaluationmatricesthatsupportinggovernmentsusetodesignMSMEpolicies.Thisstudyhasthesamepurpose,butapartfromtheseindices,appliesamorequantitativeapproachbyusingpaneldataobtainedundertheAsiaSMEMonitorproject.
6
Table2:SummaryofGlobalMSMEDataInitiativesinAsiaandthePacific
tem
AsiaSmallandMedium
SizedEnterpriseMonitor(ASM)
SMEandEntrepreneurshipOutlook
FinancingSMEsand
Entrepreneurs(OECDASEANSMEPolicyIndex
Scoreboard)
SMECompetitivenessOutlook
GlobalCompetitivenessIndex
GlobalInnovationIndex
GlobalEntrepreneurshipndex
ADBOECDOECDOECDandERIAITCWEFWIPOGED
LeadYear
organization
launched
20202002201220142015200520072006
Latestedition20232023202220182022201920222019
Dimension365834
MSMEdevelopment
Institutionalandregulatory
famework
AllocationandstructureofbankcredittoSMEs
Productivty,technology,andnnovation
FimcapabilitiesEnablingervironmentInstitutionsEntrepreneurialattitudes
2AccesstoinanceMarketconditions
ExtentofpublicsupportforSMEfnance
Enuronmentalpolicies
targetingSMEs
BusinessecosystemMarketsHumancapitalandresearchEntrepreneurialabilities
3PoliciesandregulationsInfrastructureCreditcostsandconditionsAccesstofinanceNationalenvronmentHumancapitatrrastructureEntrepreneurialaspirations
4AccesstofinanceNonbanksourcesoffinance
Accesstomarketand
internationalization
lrnoyationecosystemMarketsophistication
5AccesstoskillsFinancialhealthInstitutionalfameworkBusinesssophistication
6
Accesstoinnovationassets
Legislation,regulation,andtax
Knowledgeandtechnology
ouputs
7
Entrepreneunialeducationandskills
Creativeoutputs
8
Socialenterprisesand
inclusiveentrepreneurship
Sub-dimension1529252539128114
DataCross-sectionalandtimeCross-sectionalandtimeCross-sectionalandtime
Cross-sectionalintenttocreateatimesenes)
Cross-sectionalandtimesernes
Cross-sectionalandtimeseries
Cross-sectionalCross-sectiona
Methodology
series
Quantitativeandqualitativenationalsurveys
senes
Mediancomparison
series
Descriptivenationalsurveys
QualtativenationalsurveysMediancomparison
Quantitativeandqualitativenationalsurveys
MediancomparisonMediancompatison
Participating25developingeconomies:(1)OECDmembereconomies48economies(including10ASEANmemberstates85economies(including141economies(including132economies(including137economies(including
economie
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