亞洲開發(fā)銀行（ADB）：影響亞洲發(fā)展中國家中小微企業(yè)發(fā)展的因素

FACTORSAFFECTINGMICRO,SMALL,ANDMEDIUM-SIZEDENTERPRISEDEVELOPMENTINDEVELOPINGASIA

FINDINGSFROMAPROBABILISTICPRINCIPAL

COMPONENTANALYSIS

ShigehiroShinozaki,DaisukeMiyakawa,andRomeoArahan

NO.715

ADBECONOMICS

=******E****=*E*#E*EFEFHE*EF#F#E*F#E

February2024

WORKINGPAPERSERIES

ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK

ADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeries

FactorsAffectingMicro,Small,andMedium-Sized

EnterpriseDevelopmentinDevelopingAsia:

FindingsfromaProbabilisticPrincipalComponentAnalysis

ShigehiroShinozaki,DaisukeMiyakawa,

andRomeoArahan

No.715|February2024

TheADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeries

presentsresearchinprogresstoelicitcommentsandencouragedebateondevelopmentissuesinAsiaandthePacific.Theviewsexpressed

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tsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.

ShigehiroShinozaki(sshinozaki@)isasenior

economistandRomeoArahan(rarahan.consultant@

)isaconsultantattheEconomicResearchand

DevelopmentlmpactDepartment.DaisukeMiyakawa

(damiyak@waseda.jp)isaprofessoratWaseda

University,andchiefeconomistofUTokyoEconomic

ConsultingInc.(UTEcon).

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ABSTRACT

Limiteddataonmicro,small,andmedium-sizedenterprises(MSMEs)makeitdifficultforgovernmentstodesignappropriateMSMEpoliciesinAsiaandthePacific.ToidentifyfactorsaffectingMSMEdevelopmentandpromoteevidence-basedpolicymaking,weproposeaprobabilisticprincipalcomponentanalysismethodthatworksdespitecurrentdatalimitations.Thestudyusestime-seriesMSMEdatacollectedfrom25developingmembercountriesoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)throughtheAsiaSmallandMedium-SizedEnterpriseMonitorproject.TheestimationresultssuggestthatsoundMSMEcreditmarkets,diversifiedfinancingoptions,supportfornewbusinessesandjobcreation,andactiveMSMEparticipationinglobalmarketplacesplayacriticalroleinensuringasmoothbusinessrecoveryfromvariouscrisesandshocksaffectingdevelopingAsiaandthePacific.

Keywords:SMEdevelopment,accesstofinance,financialinclusion,SMEpolicy,probabilisticprincipalcomponentanalysis,SoutheastAsia,SouthAsia,CentralandWestAsia,thePacific

JELcodes:D22,G20,L20,L50

1.Introduction

DevelopingAsianeconomiescontinuetorecoverfromthecoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)

pandemicthatbeganinMarch2020,althougheconomicgrowthdiffersbycountry.Continuous

globaleconomicuncertainty,however,hasamplifieddownsiderisks—includinghighinflation,

currencydepreciation,andglobalsupplychaindisruptionsacceleratedbyregionalpolitical

turbulence.InSoutheastAsia,arecoveryintourismpartlycontributedtotheregion's5.6%growth

in2022;butitisforecasttodropto4.6%in2023givencontinuedweakexports.InSouthAsia,

economicandpoliticalcrisesinPakistanandSriLankapushedtheregion'sgrowthdownfrom

6.7%in2022to5.4%in2023.InCentralandWestAsia,theongoingimpactfromtheRussian

invasionofUkrainehelpedlowertheregion'sgrowthfrom5.1%in2022toaforecast4.6%in

2023.InthePacific,astrongpost-pandemictourismreboundenergizedtheregion'ssharp

economicrecoveryto6.1%growthin2022;butitisforecasttoslowto3.5%in2023partlydueto

laborshortagesacceleratedbyemigrationfromsmallislandcountriestoAustraliaandNew

Zealand(ADB2023a).

Micro,small,andmedium-sizedenterprises(MSMEs)helpdrivegrowthacrossdevelopingAsiaandthePacific,giventheirlargeshareofbusinessenterprises,jobcreation,andeconomicoutput.Giventheirimpact,governmentsintheregionhavetakenseveralpolicymeasurestopromoteMSMEdevelopment.Theycommonlypromoteentrepreneurialdevelopment(especiallyforyouthandwomen),useoftechnologythatencouragesbusinessinnovation,expandedmarketaccessbyinternationalizingMSMEs,humancapitalandskillsdevelopment,andbetteraccesstofinance.ButconstraintsonMSMEdevelopmentremaininmostcountries.Theseincludealackofanentrepreneurialculture,highdependenceoncashtransactionsthatstymieinnovation,alargepercentageofunregisteredorinformalbusinesses,limitedexportsorparticipationinglobalmarkets,skilledlaborshortages,andstructuralproblemslimitingaccesstoformalfinancialservicesforworkingandgrowthcapital.ThisraisesthequestionhowgovernmentscanenhancepoliciesandtheirimplementationtopromoteMSMEdevelopmenttowardmoreinclusive,resilientgrowth

BetterunderstandingtheMSMEbusinessenvironmentandstructuralproblemsthatinhibitgrowthiscriticalbeforedesigningafeasiblepolicyframeworkonMSMEassistance.However,thelackofdataonMSMEsmakesthisextremelydifficult.Tohelpgovernmentspromoteevidence-basedMSMEpolicymaking,theAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)has,since2020,providedbenchmarkindicatorsonMSMEdevelopmentandaccesstofinancethroughitsannualAsiaSmallandMedium-SizedEnterpriseMonitor(ASM).AsofNovember2023,theASMcoversMSMEsin25ADBdevelopingmembersinSoutheastAsia,SouthAsia,CentralandWestAsia,andthePacific.Insufficientdata,however,remainsamajorproblem.

AsolidquantitativeevaluationonMSMEdevelopmentusingsufficient,accurate,andcomparabledataremainsachallengebothnationallyandregionally.IncompletedataonMSMEsledglobalinstitutions—suchastheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD),theEconomicResearchInstituteforASEANandEastAsia(ERIA),andtheInternationalTradeCentre(ITC)—toproposeaqualitativeapproachusingassessmentmatricesforperformanceratingsormediancomparisonsbasedonavailabledatatoevaluateMSMEdevelopmentandcompetitiveness,bothnationallyandregionally.

TheASMprojecthasalsoexploredanewwaytoquantitativelyidentifyfactorsaffectingMSMEdevelopmentthroughitsASMdatabase.In2021,itdevelopedanewtrialthatdealswithMSMEdatalimitations—avariantofastandardprincipalcomponentanalysis(PCA)thatsupplementssomemissingMSMEdata—aprobabilisticPCA(ADB2022).Thepilottestcovered15countries

2

fromSoutheastAsiaandSouthAsiaalongwithafirm-leveldataanalysisforVietNam.WhilethiscontributedtothenewMSMEdevelopmentindex,insufficientdatalimitedtheproposedmodel'sabilitytoestimatemoreaccuratelythefactorsthatrepresentMSMEactivities.Moretest-runsforadditionalcountriesareneededtoproduceareliableindexconducivetoevidence-basedpolicydesignonMSMEsintheregion.In2023,wesuccessfullycompiledtime-seriesMSMEdatacovering25countries.Withthisnewdataset,thisstudyre-estimatesfactorsthatexplaintheMSMEdevelopmentpathbyregionandcountryandrethinkshowtodevelopaquantitativeapproachtobetterassessMSMEdevelopment.

Section2summarizestheMSMElandscapeindevelopingAsia,extractedfromADB(2023b).Section3reviewsglobalMSMEdatainitiativesinAsiaandthePacific.Section4explainsthemethodologyanddatasetusedforanalysis.Section5discussestheestimationresultsinfourgroups—(i)allcountries,(ii)SoutheastAsia,(ii)SouthAsia,and(iv)CentralandWestAsia.ThisisfollowedbyassociatedpolicyimplicationsinSection6andconclusionsinSection7.

2.MSMELandscapeinDevelopingAsia

MSMEsdominatetheprivatesectorinAsiaandthePacific.AccordingtoADB(2023b),basedon

availabledatainparticipatingcountriesthrough2022,MSMEsinAsiaandthePacificaccounted

foranaverage96.6%ofallenterprises,55.8%ofthetotalworkforce,and28%ofacountry's

economicoutput(Table1).DatacollecteddependonthenationalMSMEdefinitionofeach

country.MostMSMEsservesmalldomesticmarkets,withmanyengagedindistributivetradeand

informalbusiness.Cashdominatestheirbusinessmodelandthereislittleincentivetogrow

further—categorizedas“stability-oriented”firms.Withalargebaseofinformalbusinesses,the

officialMSMEcontributiontoacountry'seconomicoutputislikelywellbelowitsactualimpact.

Nonetheless,"growth-oriented"andinnovativefirmsthatwanttoexpandintoglobalmarketshave

graduallyincreasedacrosstheregion,althoughtheyremainasmallfractionofMSMEs.Based

onavailabledatathrough2022,MSMEexportsaccountedforanaverage26.3%oftotalexport

Lowbusinessdiversificationlimitsacountry'sgrowthpotential,suggestingtheneedforcreating

value.AndMSMEexportgrowthisslowing,mainlyduetotheweakexportenvironmentglobally.

moreinnovativeandglobalizedsmallfirms,startups,andanentrepreneurialbase,bothnationally

andregionally

LimitedaccesstofinanceremainsachronicbarriertoMSMEgrowth.TheMSMEcreditmarket

remainssmallinAsiaandthePacific.ADB(2023b)reportedthatbankloanstoMSMEsaveraged

10.6%ofacountry'sgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)and22%oftotalbanklending.Thepandemic

responseboostedcommercialbanklendingtoMSMEs,providedgovernmentemergency

financialassistanceorstrengthenednewlendingtoMSMEsthroughsubsidizedloanprograms,

refinancingfacilities,andspecialcreditguarantees.Despitethis,MSMEnonperformingloans

remainedhigh,averaging7.2%oftotalMSMEbankloansintheregion.Thelackofalternative

financingoptionsbeyondtraditionalbankcreditlimitsinnovationandbusinessopportunitiesfor

viableMSMEs,startups,andentrepreneurs.

3

Table1:MSMEsinDevelopingAsiaandthePacific

(percentageshare)

AllCountries

SoutheastAsia

SouthAsia

CentralandWestAsia

MSMEdevelopment

·NumberofMSMEsto

96.6%

98.0%

99.6%

99.2%

totalenterprises

·MSMEemployeesto

55.8%

66.4%

76.6%

51.9%

totalemployees

·MSMEcontributiontoeconomicoutput

28.0%

41.2%

17.7%

41.5%

·MSMEexportstototalexportvalue

26.3%

13.3%

37.4%

28.3%

Accesstofinance(bankcredit)

·MSMEloanstonational10.6%13.3%5.2%11.1%

GDP

·MSMEloanstototal22.0%12.3%12.5%33.1%

bankloans

·MSMENPLstototal7.2%5.3%12.1%4.3%

MSMEloans

GDP=grossdomesticproduct,MSME=micro,small,andmedium-sizedenterprise,NPL=nonperformingloan.

Notes:Reportingcountriesonly.Databasedonlatestavailabledatauntil2022.Dataforallcountriescover25countries:10fromSoutheastAsia;5fromSouthAsia;7fromCentralandWestAsia;and3fromthePacific.

Source:AsiaSMEMonitor2023database.

3.GlobalMSMEDataInitiatives

SeveralglobalinitiativesaredevelopingindicestomeasurespecificaspectsofMSMEs-suchasaccesstomarkets,infrastructure,finance,skillsdevelopment,useoftechnologyandinnovation,businessoperationsandadministration,competitiveness,andpolicyandregulatoryframeworks(Table2).MultilateralorganizationssuchastheOECD,ERIA,ITC,andWorldBankGrouphavebeenusingvariousanalyticalapproachestoovercomethelackofsufficientMSMEdata.

TheOECDproducestworelatedreportsonSMEdevelopment:()theSMEandEntrepreneurshipOutlookand(i)FinancingSMEsandEntrepreneurships(OECDScoreboard).Launchedin2002,theEntrepreneurshipOutlookreviews6dimensionswith29subdimensionsusingcrosssectionaldataformediancomparison.Dimensionsinclude(i)institutionalandregulatoryframeworks,(il)marketconditions,(ii)infrastructure,(iv)accesstofinance,(v)accesstoskills,and(vi)accesstoinnovationassets(OECD2023).Thesubdimensionsinclude()regulations,courtsandlaws,landandhousing,publicgovernance,competition,andtaxation;(i)domesticmarkets,globalmarkets,publicprocurement,andtradeandinvestment;(ii)logistics,energy,researchanddevelopment(R&D)andinnovation,theintemetandinformationandcommunicationstechnology(ICT);(iv)self-funding,debt,thefinancialsystem,andalternativeinstruments;(v)adultliteracy,thelabormarket,entrepreneurialculture,training,andeducation;and(vi)technology,R&D,organizationandprocesses,marketing,anddata.ItcoversOECDmembers,including,fromAsia,Australia,Japan,NewZealand,andtheRepublicofKorea.

TheOECDScoreboard,launchedin2012,isanannualreportfocusingontrendsinSMEfinancingandpoliciesfor48countries.In2022,itincluded11countriesfromAsia—Australia,Georgia,Indonesia,Japan,Kazakhstan,Malaysia,NewZealand,thePeople'sRepublicofChina(PRC),theRepublicofKorea,Thailand,andTürkiye.Itreviews5financialdimensionswith25subdimensions(indicators):(i)allocationandstructureofbankcredittoSMEs;(ii)extentofpublic

4

supportforSMEfinance;(i)creditcostsandconditions;(iv)nonbanksourcesoffinance;and(v)financialhealth(OECD2022).TheOECDconstructstheindicatorsmainlyusingsupply-sidedatafromstandardizedformsfilledinbybanks,otherfinancialinstitutions,statisticsoffices,andgovernmentagencies.Thecoreindicatorsincludetotallending(overallandSMEs),newlending(overallandSMEs),short-versuslong-termSMEloans,directgovernmentSMEloans,governmentloanguarantees,interestrates(overallandSMEs),collateral(SMEs),andbankruptcies(SMEs),amongothers.

TheOECDandERIAproducedanASEANSMEPolicyIndexin2014and2018outliningthepolicylandscapeforSMEdevelopment.ItevaluatesthescopeandintensityofSMEdevelopmentpoliciesthrough8dimensionswith25subdimensions:(i)productivity,technology,andinnovation;(ii)environmentalpoliciestargetingSMEs;(ii)accesstofinance;(iv)accesstomarketsandinternationalization;(v)institutionalframework;(vi)legislation,regulation,andtaxes;(vil)entrepreneurialeducationandskills;and(viii)socialenterprisesandinclusiveentrepreneurship(OECDandERIA2018).Thesearemeasuredinthreestages:(1)planninganddesign;(i)implementation;and(il)monitoringandevaluation.ParticipatinggovemmentssharetheirSMEdataandassessSMEpolicies.Theyalsoconductsurveysofkeystakeholdersandprivatesectorrepresentativestohelpsupplymissinginformationneededforqualitativeanalysis.Foreachsubdimension,respondentsscorethestrengthsandweaknessesofcurrentSMEpoliciesonascalefrom1to6,withhigherscoresindicatingabetterlevelofpolicydevelopmentandimplementation.

TheITC'sSMECompetitivenessOutlookannuallyreviewsSMEdevelopmentandfinancingconditionsin85countriesincludingseveralfromAsia(ITC2022).ItaimstofacilitateimplementationofUnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentGoals8and9.ThereportproducesanSMECompetitivenessIndexbasedon3dimensionswith39subdimensions:(i)firmcapabilities(SME'sabilitytomanageresourcesunderitscontrol);(il)businessecosystem(resourcesandcompetenciesneededtoenhanceafirm'scompetitiveness);and(il)nationalenvironment(governmentfunctionalityandpolicyimplementation).Eachdimensionismeasuredonthreeabilities:(i)capacitytocompete(enterpriseefficiency);(ii)capacitytoconnect(informationandknowledgegathering/exploitation);and(il)capacitytochange(humanandfinancialcapitalinvestments).Theindexassessesthecompetitivestrengthsandweaknessesbyfirmsizeona0-100scale,analyzingtime-seriesdataobtainedfromsecondarydataincluding(i)theWorldBank'sEnterpriseSurveys,EaseofDoingBusinessIndex,andLogisticsPerformanceIndex;(i)theInternationalMonetaryFund's(IMF)WorldEconomicOutlook;and(ii)theITC'sMarketAccessMap.FirmsizeclassificationsusethedefinitionfromWorldBankEnterpriseSurveys.1StrengthsandweaknessesaremeasuredbasedonareferencelevelofpercapitaGDP.

Asmentioned,theWorldBankGroupregularlyreleasesthreerelatedreports:(i)theInternationalFinanceCorporation(IFC)MSMEFinanceGapReport;(ii)theEnterpriseSurveys;and(ii)theDoingBusinessreport.ThelatestIFCreportwasreleasedin2017(withupdatesasneeded),covering128countriesincluding29ADBdevelopingmembers(IFC2017).DatacovergeneralindicatorssuchasMSMElandscape,banklending,andnonbankfinancedata.Itestimatesthepotentialdemandforfinancinginemergingeconomiescomparedwithcurrentsupply,andcalculatesthe“financegap.”ThereportisconsideredabenchmarkofMSMEfinancingneedsin10advancedeconomies.MSMEcategoriesincludeindustry(manufacturing,services,orretail),

1TheEnterpriseSurveysdefinesmallfimsashaving5-19employees,mediumfirms20-99,andlargefirms100+employees.

/en/methodology

.

5

size,andage.TheWorldBankEnterpriseSurveysfurnishthedatanecessaryinconjunctionwithbenchmarkingforestimatingthepotentialdemandforMSMEfinance.

TheWorldBank'sDoingBusinessreportoffersthematicfirm-leveldataformorethan130countriescoveringfivedimensions:(i)startingabusiness;(i)hiringandfiringworkers;(ii)enforcingacontract;(iv)gettingcredit;and(v)closingabusiness.Thereportwasdiscontinuedin2021fobereplacedbytheBusinessEnablingEnvironment(BEE)Project(asofDecember2022).BEEwillfocusonsimilarindicators,addinganindicatoronmarketcompetitionandremovingthesectiononprotectingminorityinvestors.BEEwilladdanalysesondigitaladoption,environmentalsustainability,andgenderequality.

AlthoughnotfocusingonMSMEs,otherglobalinitiativesondevelopingrelevantindicesinclude(i)theGlobalCompetitivenessIndexfromtheWorldEconomicForum(WEF);(il)theGlobalInnovationIndexfromtheWorldIntellectualPropertyOrganization(WIPO);and(ii)theGlobalEntrepreneurshipIndexfromtheGlobalEntrepreneurshipandDevelopmentInstitute(GEDI).TheGlobalCompetitivenessIndex,startedin2005,covers141economiesincludingseveralinAsia(WEF2019).Itanalysesfourdimensionsofcompetitiveness,includingtheenablingenvironment,markets,humancapital,andinnovationecosystem.ItusesaggregatedatasourcedfrominternationalorganizationssuchastheWorldBankandresultsoftheWEFExecutiveOpinionSurveyconductedforbusinessexecutives.

TheGlobalInnovationIndexwaslaunchedin2007asameasuringtoolforinnovationinasocietybyusingcross-sectionaldataformediancomparisons(WIPO2022).Itissubdividedintotwosubindices—innovationinputsandinnovationoutputs.TheInnovationinputssub-indexoffersasnapshotofsociety'senablingenvironmentforinnovationandinnovativeactivities.Fiveareasaremonitored:(I)institutions;(ii)humancapitalandresearch;(ii)infrastructure;(iv)marketsophistication;and(v)businesssophistication.Theinnovationoutputssub-indexmeasurestheresultsofinnovativeactivitiesbyevaluating(vi)knowledgeandtechnologyoutputsand(vi)creativeoutputs.Theaveragescoresfrombothindicescomprisetheoverallscore.The2022editioncovered132countriesincludingseveralinAsia.

TheGlobalEntrepreneurshipIndexmeasuresacountry'sentrepreneurialecosystem,alsousingcross-sectionaldataformediancomparisons(GEDI2019).Theecosystemistheprevailingenvironmentanentrepreneurfaces.Itexaminesentrepreneurshipsintermsofattitudes,abilities,andaspirations,allpredicatedonthesociety'sentrepreneurialframework—whichincludesmarketstructure,infrastructure,theR&Dsystem,financialsector,corporatesector,government,andeducationsystem.Fourteenareasaremeasured.Acompositescoreisproduced,andthencomparednationallyandregionally.The2019reportcovered137countriesincludingseveralinAsia.

AnothertrialforexaminingfactorsaffectingMSMEdevelopment

TheglobalMSMEdatainitiativesreviewedabovemainlyusequalitativescoringmethodsbasedonnationalsurveyswithdescriptiveanalysesand/orusemediancomparisonsfromsecondarydata.ThelimitedavailabilityofMSMEdatamakesitdificultfordirectcomparisonsacrosscountries.Thus,theyhavetriedtodescribeMSMEconditionsandidentifyconstraintsonMSMEdevelopmentprimarilyusingscoringmethodsbasedonevaluationmatricesthatsupportinggovernmentsusetodesignMSMEpolicies.Thisstudyhasthesamepurpose,butapartfromtheseindices,appliesamorequantitativeapproachbyusingpaneldataobtainedundertheAsiaSMEMonitorproject.

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Table2:SummaryofGlobalMSMEDataInitiativesinAsiaandthePacific

tem

AsiaSmallandMedium

SizedEnterpriseMonitor(ASM)

SMEandEntrepreneurshipOutlook

FinancingSMEsand

Entrepreneurs(OECDASEANSMEPolicyIndex

Scoreboard)

SMECompetitivenessOutlook

GlobalCompetitivenessIndex

GlobalInnovationIndex

GlobalEntrepreneurshipndex

ADBOECDOECDOECDandERIAITCWEFWIPOGED

LeadYear

organization

launched

20202002201220142015200520072006

Latestedition20232023202220182022201920222019

Dimension365834

MSMEdevelopment

Institutionalandregulatory

famework

AllocationandstructureofbankcredittoSMEs

Productivty,technology,andnnovation

FimcapabilitiesEnablingervironmentInstitutionsEntrepreneurialattitudes

2AccesstoinanceMarketconditions

ExtentofpublicsupportforSMEfnance

Enuronmentalpolicies

targetingSMEs

BusinessecosystemMarketsHumancapitalandresearchEntrepreneurialabilities

3PoliciesandregulationsInfrastructureCreditcostsandconditionsAccesstofinanceNationalenvronmentHumancapitatrrastructureEntrepreneurialaspirations

4AccesstofinanceNonbanksourcesoffinance

Accesstomarketand

internationalization

lrnoyationecosystemMarketsophistication

5AccesstoskillsFinancialhealthInstitutionalfameworkBusinesssophistication

6

Accesstoinnovationassets

Legislation,regulation,andtax

Knowledgeandtechnology

ouputs

7

Entrepreneunialeducationandskills

Creativeoutputs

8

Socialenterprisesand

inclusiveentrepreneurship

Sub-dimension1529252539128114

DataCross-sectionalandtimeCross-sectionalandtimeCross-sectionalandtime

Cross-sectionalintenttocreateatimesenes)

Cross-sectionalandtimesernes

Cross-sectionalandtimeseries

Cross-sectionalCross-sectiona

Methodology

series

Quantitativeandqualitativenationalsurveys

senes

Mediancomparison

series

Descriptivenationalsurveys

QualtativenationalsurveysMediancomparison

Quantitativeandqualitativenationalsurveys

MediancomparisonMediancompatison

Participating25developingeconomies:(1)OECDmembereconomies48economies(including10ASEANmemberstates85economies(including141economies(including132economies(including137economies(including

economie