CFA二級基礎段權益（打印版）

&?WeightingsLevelIISessionContentWeightingsSession1Ethical&ProfessionalSessionSession4QuantitativeMethodsEconomicsSession5-6Session7-8StudySession9-11SessionSessionSessionSessionFinancialReportingandAnalysisCorporateFinanceEquity10-15FixedIncomeDerivativesAlternativeInvestmentsPortfolioManagementSS9:Equity???R24EquityApplicationsandProcessesR25ReturnConceptsEquityvaluation?SS10:Equity?R26IndustryandCompanyAnalysis?SS11:Equity?R27DiscountedDividend??R28FreeCashFlowR29Market-BasedPriceEnterpriseMultiples??R30ResidualIncomeR31PrivateCompany24EquityValuation:ApplicationsandProcesses1..DefinitionsandApplicationsTheProcess21.DefinitionsandApplications??Intrinsictheanassetgiveahypotheticallycompleteunderstandingtheassets’investmentcharacteristics.aparttheactivemanager’sattempttoproductionpositiveexcessreturn.Alpha,anexcessrisk-adjustedreturn,alsocalledanabnormalreturn.perceivedmispricingtruemispricingVE–P=(V–P)+(VE–V)theerrortheestimatetheintrinsiczThefirstcomponentisthetruemispricing,thatis,thedifferencebetweenthetruebutunobservableintrinsicVandtheobservedmarketpriceP(thisdifferencecontributestotheabnormalreturn).zThesecondcomponentisthedifferencebetweenthevaluationestimateandthetruebutunobservableintrinsicvalue,thatis,theerrorintheestimatetheintrinsicvalue.DefinitionsandApplications??Going-ConcernandLiquidationzGoing-concernvaluetheunderagoing-concernassumption.Thevaluationmodelswewillcoverareallbasedonthegoingconcernassumption.zLiquidationtheacompanythecompanyweredissolvedandassetssoldMarketandInvestmentzmarketthepriceatwhichanasset(orliability)wouldchangehandsbetweenawillingbuyerandawillingsellerwhenboththemarenotunderanycompulsion.zInvestmentisthetoaspecifictakingaccountpotentialsynergiesbasedontheinvestor’srequirementsandexpectations.?UnderefficientmarketzLiquidationvalue<intrinsicvalue=fairmarketvalue<investmentDefinitionsandApplications?ApplicationsEquityzStockselection:Checkthissecurityfairlypriced,overpriced,orunderpricedrelativetocurrentestimatedintrinsicandrelativetothepricescomparablesecurities.zInferring(extracting)marketexpectations:Marketpricesreflecttheexpectationsinvestorsaboutthefutureperformancecompanies.Analystscanestimatetheseexpectationsbycomparingthemarketimpliedexpectationstohisownexpectations.zEvaluatingcorporateevents:Investmentbankers,corporateanalysts,andinvestmentanalystsusevaluationtoolstoassesstheimpactsuchcorporateeventsasmergers,acquisitions,divestitures,spin-offs,andgoingprivatetransactions.DefinitionsandApplicationsz:aaaz:z:az:z:2.TheProcess?GeneralstepstheequityvaluationprocesszUnderstandthebusiness;zForecastcompanyperformance;zSelecttheappropriatevaluationmodel;zConverttheforecastsintoavaluation;zApplythevaluationconclusions.TheProcess?processzStep1:understandingthebusiness9Elementsindustrystructure(Porter’sfiveforces)?????Intra-industryrivalryNewentrantsSubstitutesSupplierpowerBuyerpowerzzz9Threegenericstrategies?Costleadership?Differentiation?FocuszStepforecastingcompanyperformance99forecastingapproachBottom-upforecastingapproachTheProcesszStepselectingtheappropriatevaluationmodel9AbsolutionvaluationmodelDDM,FCFM,residualincomeapproach,asset-basedmodel.RelativevaluationmodelMultiples,suchasP/E,P/B,etc.zStep4:convertingforecaststoavaluation?9?9importantaspectsconvertingforecaststovaluationaresensitivityandsituationaladjustments.???ControlpremiumLackmarketabilitydiscountsIlliquiditydiscounts/blockagefactorzStep5:makingtheinvestmentdecisionTheProcess??Sum-of-the-partsvaluationzSum-of-the-partsvaluationbreakupvalueorprivatemarketvalueAvaluationthatsumstheestimatedvalueseachthecompany’sbusinessesaseachbusinesswereanindependentgoingconcern.ConglomeratediscountzThemarketappliesadiscounttothestockacompanyoperatingmultiple,unrelatedbusinessescomparedtothestockcompanieswithnarrowerfocuses.zThreeexplanationsforconglomeratediscounts9Inefficiencyinternalcapitalmarkets:companies’allocationinvestmentcapitalamongdivisionsdoesnotmaximizeoverallshareholdervalue;99Endogenousfactors:poorlyperformingcompaniestendtoexpandbymakingacquisitionsunrelatedbusinesses;Researchmeasurementerrors:conglomeratediscountsdonotactuallyexist,andevidencesuggestingthattheydoaresultflawedmeasurement.TheProcess??Howdoesoneselectavaluationmodel?SelectedmodelsshouldbezConsistentwiththecharacteristicsthecompanybeingvalued;zAppropriategiventheavailabilityandqualitydata;zConsistentwiththepurposevaluation,includingtheanalyst’sperspective.25ReturnConcepts1234....ReturnConceptsEquityRiskPremiumRequiredReturnonEquityInternationalConsiderationDiscountRateSelectionRelationCashFlow1.ReturnConcepts?zazP-P+D1D1P-P0r==+=dividendyield+priceappreciationreturnP0P0P0z9ReturnConcepts?&zzAlpha,anexcessrisk-adjustedreturn,alsocalledanabnormalreturn.Formula??zExpectedalpha(exantealpha)=Expectedreturn–RequiredreturnzRealizedalpha(expostalpha)=Actualholdingperiodreturn–ContemporaneousrequiredreturnReturnConcepts?Requiredreturn(opportunitycost)zTheminimumlevelexpectedreturnthataninvestorrequiresordertoinvestintheassetoveraspecifictimeperiod,giventheassets’riskiness.zItrepresents99Athresholdforbeingfairlycompensatedfortherisktheasset;Ifinvestor’sexpectedreturn>requiredreturn,theassetisundervalued;andviceversa.ReturnConcepts?ExpectedreturnzWhenaassetmispriced,priceassetsconvergestoitsintrinsicaperiodtime.zTheinvestor’sexpectedratereturncomprises:99Requiredreturn;Pricetoconvergetooverhisorhertimehorizon.E(R)|r+V-PPwhere,V,thereintrinsicthestock;P,thecurrentpricethestockr,requiredreturnduringtheconvergencetimeperiodReturnConcepts??DiscountratezItarateusedfindingthePVfuturecashflows;zUsedtodeterminetheintrinsicdependsonthecharacteristicstheinvestmentratherthanthatInternalratereturn(IRR)zTheinternalratereturn(IRR)onaninvestmentthediscountratethatequatesthepresenttheasset’sexpectedfuturecashflowstotheasset’sprice.zIfpriceequaltocurrentintrinsicvalue,thengenerally,adiscountratecanbefound,usuallybyiteration,whichequatesthatpresenttothemarketprice.2.EquityRiskPremium???Theequitypremiumistheincrementalreturn(premium)thatinvestorsrequireforholdingequitiesratherthanarisk-freeasset.zEquityriskpremium=Requiredreturnonequityindex–Risk-freerateCAPMzRequiredreturnonsharei=Currentexpectedrisk-freereturn+βi(Equityriskpremium)Build-upMethodzRequiredreturnonsharei=Currentexpectedrisk-freereturn+Equitypremium?Otherriskpremium/discountsEquityRiskPremium?HistoricalestimatezAhistoricalequitypremiumestimateusuallycalculatedasthemeanthedifferencesbetweenbroad-basedequity-market-indexreturnsandgovernmentdebtreturnsoversomeselectedsampleperiod.zIssueshistoricalestimate9999Selectanappropriateindex.Indrivingthereturn,anindexshouldberelativelystationary.Timeperiod.Thelongertheperiodused,themoreprecisetheestimate;Arithmeticmeanorgeometricmean(lower)estimating?Riskpremiumwillbelowerwhengeometricmeanused;Longtermbondorshorttermbillafortherisk-freeassets;?Industrypracticeprefertouselonger-termbondsthanshorter-termbondstoestimatetherisk-freerate.9Survivorshipbias??Thatresultstheover-estimatereturnonindexandtheDownwardadjustmentusedtooffsetthebias.EquityRiskPremium?Forward-looking(ex-ante)estimate–conceptualframeworkzERPbasedonexpectationsforeconomicandfinancialvariablesfromthepresentgoingforward.ItlogicaltoestimateERPdirectlybasedoncurrentinformationandexpectation.zItnotsubjecttotheissuessuchasnon-stationaryordataserieshistoricalestimate.Butsubjecttopotentialerrorsrelatedtomodelsandbehavioral.z3approaches999Gordongrowthmodel(GGM)estimate;Macroeconomicsmodelestimate;Surveyestimate.EquityRiskPremium?GGMzGGMequityriskpremiumestimate=Dividendyieldontheindexbasedonyear-aheadaggregateforecasteddividendsandaggregatemarket+Consensuslong-termearningsgrowthrate–Long-termgovernmentbondyield.zAsimplewaytounderstandtheequationDERP=r-RFR=0zTheaboveequationassumesgrowthrateconstant.99AnanalystmayadjustmenttoreflectP/Eboomorbust.AnothermethodtosolvetheseproblemsrapidEquityRiskPremium?Supply-SideEstimates(MacroeconomicModel)ERPa??1EINFL?u1?EGREPS?u1?EGPE??o?EINC`1???ExpectedriskfreereturnzExpectedinflation(1+YTMof20-yearT-bonds)(1+YTMof20-yearTIPS)|-1TIPS:TreasuryInflationProtectedSecuritieszExpectedgrowthrealEPSlaborproductivitygrowthrate+laborsupplygrowthrate=?SurveyestimateszUsetheconsensustheopinionsfromasamplepeople.EquityRiskPremium?ComparisonEstimatesStrengthWeakness??stationary(if??A(if(ifHistoricalEstimates?????Forward-lookingEstimates??EquityRiskPremium?ComparisonEstimatesGGMStrengthWeakness????a.?.Supply-SideEstimates????SurveyEstimates?to3.RequiredReturnonEquity?estimatetherequiredreturnontheanalystchoosefollowingmodelszCAPMzMulti-factormodels999Fama-FrenchModel(FFM)Pastor-Stambaughmodel(PSM)MacroeconomicMultifactormodelszBuild-upmethod9BondYieldPlusRiskPremiumMethodRequiredReturnonEquity?CAPMmodelRequiredreturnonsharei=Currentexpectedrisk-freereturn+βi(Equityriskpremium)zanequilibriummodelbasedonassumptions99Investorsareriskaversion;Investorsmakeinvestmentdecisionbaseonthemeanreturnandvariancereturntheirportfolio.RequiredReturnonEquity??CAPMmodel—BetaEstimatesforPublicCompaniesEstimatingBetaforpubliccompanyzThechoicetheindexusedtorepresentthemarketportfolio:ForUSequities,theS&P500andCompositehavebeentraditionalchoices.zThelengthdataperiodandthefrequencyobservations99Themostcommonchoicefiveyearsmonthlydata,yieldingobservations;yearsweeklyobservationsespeciallyappropriatefastgrowingmarkets.?AdjustedBetaforPublicCompaniesintroducedbyBlumezAdjustedbeta=(2/3)(Unadjustedbeta)+(1/3)(1.0);zThebetaafutureperiodhasbeenfoundtobeonaverageclosertothemean1.0.RequiredReturnonEquity?EstimatingBetafortinytradedstockornonpubliccompanieszSelectingbenchmarkcompany(comparable);9Usethepubliccompanies’informationthesameindustry;zEstimatethebenchmark’sbeta(similarwithprevioussection);zUnleveredbenchmark’sbetaβ1β|?1+D/E??z4:Leveruptheunleveredbetafortinytradedstockornonpubliccompaniesβ1+D?β|RequiredReturnonEquity?MultifactormodelzThebetaCAPMdoesnotdescribetheriskcompletely.Multifactormodelsaredeveloptoaccountfortherisksmorecompletely.=iiuizFactorsensitivityorfactorbetaistheasset’ssensitivitytoaparticularfactor(holdingallotherfactorsconstant),andzerosensitivitytoallotherfactors.RequiredReturnonEquity?MultifactormodelzFama-FrenchModelPastor-StambaughModel(PSM)9NotethedefinitionRMRFtermsashort-termrate;availablehistoricalseriesaretermsapremiumoverashort-termgovernmentdebtrate.??????????????????????????FFMSmall/largecap??PSMHigh/lowbook-to-marketLow/highliquidity???????????????????????????,smallcap???????,value-oriented??,low-liquidityRequiredReturnonEquity?MultifactormodelzTheFFMviewsthesizeandfactorsasrepresentingproxyingfor”)asetunderlyingriskfactors.99Smallmarket-capcompaniesmaybesubjecttoriskfactorssuchaslessreadyaccesstoprivateandpubliccreditmarketsandcompetitivedisadvantages.Highbook-to-marketmayrepresentshareswithdepressedpricesbecauseexposuretofinancialdistress.Example:Fama-FrenchModel?TheestimatedfactorsensitivitiesEnergytoFama-FrenchfactorsandtheriskpremiumassociatedwiththosefactorsaregiventhetableSensitivityPremium(%)MarketSize1..BasedontheFama-frenchmodel,calculatetherequiredreturnforEnergyusingthesesestimates.Assumethatthebillrate4.7percent.2Describetheexpectedstylecharacteristicsbasedonfactorsensitivities.Example:Fama-FrenchModelCorrectAnswer:r=4.7%+(1.20x4.5%)+(-0.50x2.7%)+?-0.15x4.3%)=+--=Energyappearstobealarge-cap,growth-oriented,highmarketriskstockasindicatedbynegativesizebeta,negativebeta,andmarketbetaaboveRequiredReturnonEquity?Macroeconomicmulti-factormodelszAspecificexamplemacroeconomicfactormodelsthefive-factorBIRRmodel,presentedandwithfactordefinitionsasfollows:9Confidencerisk:theunanticipatedchangethereturndifferencebetweenriskycorporatebondsandgovernmentbonds,bothwithmaturitiesyears.9Timehorizonrisk:theunanticipatedchangethereturndifferencebetween20-yeargovernmentbondsandTreasurybills..99Inflationrisk:theunexpectedchangetheinflationrate.Business-cyclerisk:theunexpectedchangethelevelrealbusiness9Markettimingrisk:theportionthetotalreturnanequitymarketthatremainsunexplainedbythefirstfourriskfactors.RequiredReturnonEquity?Build-upmethodzThebasicideafortherequiredreturnonequityri=risk-freerate+equityriskpremium?oneormorepremium(discounts)zForprivatebusinessvaluationri=risk-freerate+equityriskpremium+sizepremium+specific-companypremiumzBondyieldplusriskpremiummethodcostequity=YTMonthecompany’slong-termdebt+RiskpremiumzTips:becarefulwiththesignseachcomponentandgetitthroughlogicaldeduction.RequiredReturnonEquity?ComparisonthemethodsMethodsCAPMStrengthWeakness??Choosingtheappropriatefactor.Lowexplanatorypowersomecases??VerysimplethatusesonlyonefactorHigherexplanatorypower(notassured)??MorecomplexityandexpensiveMultifactorBuild-up??SimpleCanapplytocloselyheldcompanies.valuesmaynotberelevanttocurrentmarketconditionsRequiredReturnonEquity?SummarycalculationszCalculateERP(equityriskpremium)99Historicalestimate;Forward-lookingestimate.???GGMestimate;Macroeconomicmodelestimate;Surveyestimate.RequiredReturnonEquity?SummarycalculationszCalculaterequiredratereturn999CAPM???Activelytradedpubliccompany;AdjustedBeta;Tinytradedornonpubliccompany.Multifactormodel???Fama-Frenchmodel(FFM);Pastor-Stambaughmodel(PSM);MacroeconomicMultifactormodels.Build-upmethodBondyield+riskpremium.?4.InternationalConsideration??ExchangeratezThevolatilityexchangerateinfluencesthereturnonforeigninvestmenttermhomecurrency.DataandmodelissuesemergingmarketszCountryspreadmodel:thecountrypremiumrepresentsapremiumassociatedwiththeexpectedgreaterrisktheemergingmarketcomparedtothebenchmarkdevelopedmarket.Equitypremium=Equitypremiumforadevelopedmarket+CountrypremiumzCountryratingmodel:providesaregression-basedestimatetheequityriskpremium.Theestimatedregressionequationthenusedwiththeriskratingsforlessdevelopedmarketstopredicttherequiredreturnforthosemarkets.5.?Thecostcapitalismostcommonlyestimatedusingthecompany’safter-taxweightedaveragecostcapital,orweightedaveragecostcapitalforshort.zAweightedaveragerequiredratesreturnforthecomponentsourcescapitald1-Taxrate+ce?ThechangescapitalstructureresultschangesEliminatetheimpactfromfrequentchangescapitalstructureestimatingthetargetcapitalstructureisusedtoestimatethe6.??Beingusedasdiscountratesvaluation,requiredreturnsneedtobedefinedappropriatelyrelativetothecashflowstobediscounted.zCashflowtoequity?therequiredreturnonequityzCashflowtothefirm?thecostcapital(after-taxweightedaveragecostcapital)Whenflowsstatedrealterms,amountsreflectoffsetsmadeforactualoranticipatedchangesthepurchasingpower.zNominalcashflows?nominaldiscountrateszRealcashflows?realdiscountrates26IndustryandCompanyAnalysis1.ApproachesforEquityModelsRevenueForecastApproachesForecastCOGSForecastSellingGeneralandAdministrativeCosts(SG&A)ForecastFinancingCostForecastIncomeExpenseForecastingBalanceSheetItemsReturnonInvestedCapital(ROIC)CompetitivePositionBasedonaPorter’sFiveForcesForecastSalesandCostsSubjecttoPriceInflationandDeflation?????5..6EffectsTechnologicalDevelopmentForecastHorizonSales-basedProFormaCompanyModel7.8.1.ApproachesEquityModels?Abottom-upapproachbeginsattheleveltheindividualcompanyoraunitwithinthesuchasindividualproductlines,locations,orbusinesssegments.zAnalyststhenaggregatetheirprojectionsfortheindividualproductsorsegmentstoarriveataforecasttotalrevenueforthezE.G.timeseries,returnoncapital,capacity-basedmeasure.Atop-downapproachusuallybeginsattheleveltheoveralleconomzE.g.growthrelativetoGDPgrowth,marketgrowthandmarketshare.Ahybridapproachcombineselementsbothtop-downandbottom-upanalysis.??zHybridanalysisthemostcommontype.zCanbeusefulforuncoveringimplicitassumptionsorerrorsthatmayarisefromusingasingleapproach.1.1ApproachestoModelingRevenue??GrowthrelativetoGDPgrowthzFirstforecaststhegrowthratenominalgrossdomesticproduct;zThenconsidershowthegrowthratethespecificcompanybeingexaminedwillcomparewithnominalGDPgrowth.g+x%org?(1+x%)MarketgrowthandmarketsharezFirstforecastsgrowthinaparticularmarket;zThenconsidersthecompany’scurrentmarketshare,andhowthatsharechangeovertime.zAnalystsoftenthinktermspercentagepointpremiumsordiscountsderivedfromacompany’spositiontheindustriallifecycleorbusinesscycleBottom-upApproachestoModelingRevenue??TimeserieszForecastsbasedonhistoricalgrowthratesortime-seriesanalysis.ReturnoncapitalzForecastsbasedonbalancesheetaccounts,forexampleinterestrevenueforabankmaybecalculatedasloansmultipliedbytheaverageinterestrate.?Capacity-basedmeasurezForecasts(forexample,retailing)basedonsame-storesalesgrowthandsalesrelatedtonewstores.1.2ForecastCOGS??ForecastingCOGSasapercentagesalesandforecastinggrossmarginpercentageareequivalentthataforoneimpliesafortheCompetitors’grossmarginscanalsoprovideausefulcrosscheckforestimatingarealisticgrossmarginzGrossmargindifferencesamongcompanieswithinasectorshouldlogicallyrelatetodifferencestheirbusinessoperations;zDifferencescompetitors’grossmarginsdoesnotalwaysindicateasuperiorcompetitivepositionbutinsteadcouldsimplyreflectdifferencesbusinessmodels.ForecastCOGS??AsmallerrorthisitemcanhaveamaterialimpactontheforecastedoperatingAnalystsshouldconsiderwhetherananalysisthesecosts(e.g.,bysegment,byproductcategory,orbyvolumeandpricecomponents)canimproveforecastingaccuracy.zE.G.somecompaniesfacefluctuatinginputcoststhatcanbepassedoncustomersonlywithatimelag.Particularlyforcompaniesthathavelowgrossmargins,suddenshocksinputcostscanaffectoperatingsignificantly.EconomiesScale??CharacteristicseconomieszAsituationwhichaveragecostsperunitagoodorserviceproducedfallasvolumerises.zGrossandoperatingmarginstendtobepositivelycorrelatedwithsaleslevelsanindustrythatenjoyseconomiesscale.EconomiesmayappearzFactorsthatcanleadtoeconomiesscaleinclude,athigherlevelsproduction,greaterbargainingpowerwithsuppliers,lowercostcapital,andlowerperunitadvertisingexpenses;zEvidenceeconomies99LowerproportionCOGS;LowerproportionSG&A.ForecastCOGS??CloserexaminationthevolumeandpriceainputsmayimprovethequalityaforecastCOGS,especiallytheshortrun.AnalystsshouldalsoconsiderimpactahedgingzThroughvarioushedgingstrategies,acompanycanmitigatetheimpacton9E.g.Thenegativeimpactincreasingsalespricesonsalesvolumecanbemitigatedbyapolicygradualsalespriceincreases.?Grossmargindifferencesamongcompanieswithinasectorshouldlogicallyrelatetodifferencestheirbusinessoperations.ForecastCOGS=(historicalCOGS/revenue)u(estimateoffutureForecastCOGS=(1-grossmargin)u(estimateof1.3&?SG&AoperatingexpenseshavelessadirectrelationshipwiththerevenueazFixedcomponent99ResearchanddevelopmentexpenseFluctuatelessthansales.Overheadcostsmajorlydeterminedby??Numberemployeesattheheadoffice;Supportingandadministrativeoperations.?zcomponent:sellinganddistributionexpensesoftenhavealargevariablecomponentandcanbeestimated.?CertainexpenseswithinSG&Amorevariablethanothers.Sellinganddistributionexpensesoftenhavealargevariablecomponentandcanbeestimatedasapercentagesales.1.4ForecastFinancingCost??ThedebtlevelcombinationwiththeinterestratearethemaindriversforecastingdebtfinancingexpenseszNetdebt:grossdebtLesscash,cashequivalents,andshort-termdeposits;zNetinterestexpense:Interestexpenseminusinterestincome.Financialstatementsprovidedetailaboutthematuritystructurethecompany’sdebtandthecorrespondinginterestrates.Thisinformationcanbeusedtoestimatefuturefinancingexpenses.Example?DutchGrocerAholdhasadebtstructurewitharelativelyhighamountcashonbalancesheet.?€millions?20112012Average*GrossdebtCash+STsecuritiesNetdebtGrossinterestexpenseforInterestincomeforNetinterestexpensevalues=(beginning+endingvalue)/21..Calculatetheinterestexpenserateontheaveragegrossdebtandinterestrateontheaveragecashposition2Calculatetheinterestrateonaveragenetdebt,assumingtheotherfinancialincomeandexpensesarenotrelatedtothedebtorcashbalances.Example?CorrectAnswer:zInterestexpenserateonaveragegrossdebtcalculatedasinterestexpensedividedbyaveragegrossdebt:million/€3,621million)=or6.8%.Theinterestrateonaveragecashpositioninterestincomedividedbytheaveragecashposition:million/€2,708million)=0.7%.zTheinterestrateontheaveragenetdebtcalculatedasnetinterestexpensedividedbyaveragenetdebtmillion/€913million)=24.7%.1.5ForecastIncomeExpense?taxrateszThestatutorytaxrate,whichisthetaxrateapplyingtowhatisconsideredtobeacompany’sdomestictaxbase;zTheeffectivetaxrate,whichcalculatedasthereportedtaxamountontheincomestatementdividedbythepre-taxincome;zThetaxrate,whichthetaxactually(cashtax)dividedbypre-taxincome.?Thereconciliationbetweentheandlosstaxamountandthecashflowtaxfiguresshouldbethechangethedeferredtaxassetorzamount=cashflowtaxfigure+changesdeferredtaxliabilities-changesdeferredtaxassetsComparisonsamongIncomeExpense?Differencesbetweenthestatutorytaxrateandtheeffectivetaxratecanariseformanyreasons.zcredits,withholdingtaxondividends,adjustmentstopreviousyears,andexpensesnotdeductiblefortaxpurposesareamongthereasonsfordifferences.zThenotesonthefinancialstatementsshoulddiscloseothertypesitems,somewhichcouldcontributetoatemporarilyhighorloweffectivetaxrate.zEffectivetaxratescandifferwhencompaniesareactiveoutsidethecountrywhichtheyaredomiciled.?Agoodstartingpointforestimatingfuturetaxexpenseataxratebasedonnormalizedoperatingincome.Thisnormalizedtaxrateshouldbeagoodindicationthefuturetaxexpense,ananalyst’searningsmodel.2.ForecastingBalanceSheetItems??Somebalancesheetlineitemsflowdirectlyfromtheincomestatementwhereasotherlinesareverycloselylinkedtoincomestatementprojections.Workingcapitalitems:assumedthatworkingcapitalasapercentagesaleswillremainconstant.zInventory=forecastedannualCOGS/InventoryturnoverratiozProjectedaccountsreceivable=(dayssalesoutstanding)h(forecastedsales/365)zEstimateincludeonlytherelevantbalancesheetitemsrelatedtorevenuesandcosts(i.e.,inventories,tradeandotherreceivables,andtradeandotherpayables)andkeeptheotheritemsconstant.ForecastingBalanceSheetItems?PP&E:primarilychangesaresultcapitalexpendituresanddepreciationzDepreciationforecastsareusuallybasedonhistoricaldepreciationanddisclosureaboutdepreciationschedules,whereascapitalexpenditureforecastsdependontheanalysts’judgmentthefutureneedfornewPP&E;zCapitalexpenditurescanbethoughtasincludingbothmaintenancecapitalexpenditures,whicharenecessarytosustainthecurrentbusiness,andgrowthcapitalexpenditures,whichareneededtoexpandthebusiness.3.ReturnonInvestedCapital(ROIC)?Oncefutureincomestatementsandbalancesheetsareconstructed,analystscandeterminetheratereturnoninvestedcapital(ROIC).zInvestedcapital:calculatedasoperatingassetslessoperatingliabilitiesz?????9ROICisabettermeasureprofitabilitythanreturnonequitybecausenotaffectedbyacompany’sdegreefinancialleverage.9Ingeneral,sustainablyhighROICasignacompetitiveadvantage.z?????9Returnoncapitalemployed(debtandequitycapital)essentiallyROICbeforetax.ROCEcanbeusefulwithdifferenttaxstructuresbecausecomparisonunderlyingprofitabilitywouldnotbebiasedfavorcompaniesbenefittingfromlowtaxrateregimes.Sensitivityanalysis&Scenarioanalysis?SensitivityzSensitivityanalysisinvolveschangingoneassumptionatatimetoseetheeffectontheestimateintrinsicvalue;zScenarioanalysishasthesamegoal,butinvolveschangingmultipleassumptionsatthesametime.4.CompetitivePositiononaPorter’sFiveForcesThreatnewentrants?ThecompanieshavelimitedpricingpowerzNumeroussubstitutesexistBargainingpowersuppliersRivalryamongexistingBargainingpowerbuyerszSwitchingcostsarelowcompetitorszTheindustriesarefragmentedzLimitedgrowthThreatsubstituteproductszHighexitbarriers,highfixedcostszIdenticalproductofferings?ThecompaniesfacedownwardpressureonprofitabilityzThebargainingpowersuppliersarehighzThecustomershavegreaterabilitydemandlowerpricesand/orcontrolthequalityandquantityendproductszThethreatnewentrantsishigh5.InflationandDeflation??Inflationanddeflation:cansignificantlyaffecttheaccuracyofforecastsforacompany’sfuturerevenue,profit,andcashflow.zMostof9Commoditiesorlabor.zResultinhigherpricesforendproducts.zIndustrystructurecanbeanimportantfactorindeterminingtherelationshipbetweenincreasesininputcostsandincreasesinthepriceofendproducts.最新資料領取微信：xuebajun888szInthehighlycompetitiveconsumerinfluencedbymovementsininputprices,whichcanaccountforhalfofthecostofgoodssold.InflationandDeflation?CompanysalesandinflationdeflationzForecastingrevenueforacompanyfacedwithinflationinputcostsrequiressomeunderstandingthepriceelasticitytheproducts.zTheimpacthigherpricesonvolumedependsonthepriceelasticitydemand9Ifdemandrelativelypriceinelastic,revenueswillbenefitfrominflation;9Ifdemandrelativelypriceelastic,revenuecandeclineevenunitpricesareraised.InflationandDeflation?IndustrycostsandinflationordeflationzFamiliaritywiththespecificpurchasingcharacteristicsanindustrycanalsobeusefulforecastingcosts;zMonitoringtheunderlyingdriversinputpricescanbeusefulforecastingcosts;zUnderstandhowinflationordeflationaffectsanindustry’scoststructuredependsonitscompetitiveenvironment.?CompanycostsandinflationordeflationzInforecastingacompany’scosts,oftenhelpfultosegmentthecoststructurebycategoryandgeograph9Foreachitemcost,anassessmentshouldbemadeabouttheimpactpotentialinflationanddeflationoninputprices.Example?Nestléabeveragemanufacture,thedatafollowedaparttheincomestatementforNestleSalesunits@COGSunits@GrossprofitSG&Aunits@OperatingprofitExample?AnalystforecaststhatNestlé'sCOGSwillincrease$4/unitnextzWhatNestlé'sgrossmarginandoperatingmarginforzIfNestléwouldtooffsettheincreasingcostbyrisesellingpriceandassumethesalesvolumenotaffected,whatNestlé'smarginandoperatingmargin?zDueincreasesellingprice,Nestlé'ssalesvolumesdecreasedby5%.WhatNestlé'smarginandoperatingmargin?zDueincreasesellingprice,Nestlé'ssalesvolumesdecreasedby10%.WhatNestlé'smarginandoperatingmargin?Example?CorrectAnswer:zGrossmarginGrossprofit/salesOperatingmarginOperatingprofit/saleszSalesunits@units@units@COGSGrossSG&AOperatingGrossmarginOperatingmarginExample?CorrectAnswer(cont.):zSalesunits@units@$COGSGrossSG&AOperatingGrossmarginOperatingmarginExample?CorrectAnswer(cont.):zSalesunits@units@$COGSGrossSG&AOperatingGrossmarginOperatingmarginzThemorevolumeslashedduetotheincreasingprice,thelessoperatingmarginNestlepreserved.6.EffectsDevelopment?Ad