經(jīng)濟全球化背景下波蘭及其他歐盟國家工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整

經(jīng)濟全球化背景下波蘭及其他歐盟國家工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整摘要：該文章的目的是分析波蘭以及其他歐盟國家產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化。研究的內(nèi)容包括：經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型時工業(yè)在波蘭經(jīng)濟中角色的轉(zhuǎn)變、歐洲一體化和全球化對就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和生產(chǎn)性固定資產(chǎn)總值的增值、波蘭產(chǎn)業(yè)的分支結(jié)構(gòu)以及出口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化、外資對企業(yè)的影響及其在波蘭產(chǎn)業(yè)重組中的作用。關(guān)鍵詞：歐洲聯(lián)盟，全球化，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整，波蘭，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)原文：IndustrialrestructuringinPolandandotherEuropeanUnionstatesintheeraofeconomicglobalizationAbstractTheaimofthepaperistoanalyzechangesinindustryinPolandwithrespecttochangesinotherEuropeanUnionmemberstates.Theresearchproblemsinclude:thechangingroleofindustryinthePolisheconomyintheeraofeconomictransformation,Europeanintegrationbasedandglobalizationonitsshareoftheemploymentstructureandgrossvaluedadded,changesinthebranchstructureofPolishindustryaswellasexportsasanexpressionofrestructuringprocesses,influenceofforeigncapitalonthefunctioningofindustrialenterprisesanditsroleinthere-structuringofPolishindustry.Keywords:EuropeanUnion,globalization,industrialrestructuring,Poland,structureofindustryNatureofrestructuringprocessesWhileanexhaustivediscussionoftheconceptofrestructuringisnotthepurposeofthispaper,itisworthnotingthatmostresearchersinthefieldagreethatrestructuringisnotanunambiguousconceptandmaybeunderstoodindifferentways[16,17,18,19,20,21].Intheliterature,itiscommonlyacceptedthatthereexisttwodifferentapproachestothisissue:1)amacroscaleapproachbasedonthenationaleconomy,and2)amicroscaleapproachbasedonenterprises[22,23].Someresearchers[19]havealsoidentifiedsomethingknownasmeso-restructuring,whichviewsindustrybranchandregionalstructuresfromamiddlepointofview–somewherebetweenmicro-andmacro-restructuring.Changesinindustrialstructureonamacro-andmeso-economicscaletakeplaceasaresultofchangesinthefunctioningofindividualindustrialenterprises.Suchenterprisesaretreatedasbasicelementsofspatialformsofindustrialconcentration.Hence,itisimportanttoidentifythenatureofrestructuringonamicroscale(enterpriselevel).Inawell-establishedmarketeconomy,restructuringmaybedefinedasaprocessofradicalchangeinthevariouspartsofanenterprisedesignedtoadaptthegivenenterprisetoexistingandanticipatedconditionsinordertohelpitgrow.InPoland,industrialrestructuringisuniquelydifferentasthecountryisstillundergoinganeconomictransformationprocess.Forthisreason,restructuringinPolandislooselydefinedintheresearchliteratureasaprocessofadjustingbusinessoperationstothedemandsofamarketeconomy[20].Manyresearchers[18,19]believethatrestructuringoughttofulfillatleastthreerequirements:1)shouldbebasedonadeliberateeffort,2)shouldbeimplementedbasedonaspecificprogram,and3)theimplementationprocessshouldbebasedonappropriatemechanismsandeconomicpolicy.Hence,noteverychangeinthefunctioningofabusinessenterprisemaybelabeledrestructuring.Adetailedanalysisofthepurpose,course,andeffectsofindustrialrestructuringinPolandhasbeenperformedinearlierresearch[7,8].Fromageographicpointofview,thepaperutilizesthedefinitionsetforthbyM.Tkocz[22]whereindustrialrestructuringisdefinedasalongcontinuousprocessthatleadstoadeliberateshiftinthebranchstructureofindustry.Theshiftinvolvesdifferenttypesoflegalandfinancialinstruments.Restructuringissaidtoincludechangesinownership,organization,technology,andlocation.Theemploymentprofilechangesaswellinordertoincreasetheeffectiveness,innovativeness,andcompetitivenessofindustryonaninternationalscale.GlobaldeterminantsofindustrialrestructuringinPolandTheprocessofrestructuringinPolandisaffectedbyavarietyofdeterminantseconomictransformationinCentralandEasternEurope.ThisresultsfromthefactthatEUcountriesinCentralandEasternEuropecontinuetomaintaintraditionalbranchesofindustrythatrequireanextensiveinputoflabor.Ontheotherhand,EUcountriesinWesternEuropetendtopossessmoremodernformsofindustrythatrequirelesslaborandproducehighergrossvalueaddedgoods.EUstates(Fig.2)andlargeindustry-basedgrossvalueadded(Fig.3)in2007.Thelargestdecreasesintheshareofindustrialjobsintotalemploymentandgrossvalueaddedhavebeenrecordedincountrieswhereindustrialjobsandindustrialgrossvalueaddedarealreadyratherinsignificantintermsoftotalemploymentandtotalgrossvalueadded(Fig.4).Thisincludesprimarilythe“old15”EUstates(e.g.corememberssuchasGreatBritain).CountriesthatjoinedtheEUlaterthanthecorememberstates,suchasSpainandFinland,experiencedlessofadecline.ThesurprisingfindinginthiscaseisthefactthedeclineinindustryisnotthatsubstantialinCentralandEasternEuropewhereeconomictransformationisstilltakingplaceandwhereindustrialpotentialhadbeenveryhighfollowingtheendoftheircentrally-plannedeconomicsystems.Insomecases,industryhasgainedsignificanceinthenationaleconomyintermsofjobs(Lithuania,Latvia)andgrossvalueadded(Romania,Denmark,Austria).Industrycontinuestodeclineinmostcountriesintermsofitsshareofjobsintotalemploymentandgrossvalueadded.Thisisassociatedwiththeintroductionofmachinesintheproductionprocessandconsequentlytheeliminationofhumanlabor[33]aswellastherelocationofmanufacturingfacilitiestonon-EUstatesthatofferlowerlaborcosts.Yet,despitetheabove,researchappearstoshow[4,5,6]thatmanyregionsinEurope,includingsomeinthe“old15”EU,continuetomaintainalargenumberofindustrialjobsandproducesubstantialgrossvalueadded,bothofwhichcontinuetogrowinsomecases.Mostregionswithlongstandingindustrialtraditionsandasubstantialmodernindustrialroleaswellasregionsdynamicallygrowingattheturnofthe21stcentury(e.g.Ireland,Spain)continuetostrengthentheirindustrialsectorintermsofgrossvalueadded.ThiscontradictstheviewcommonlyacceptedinmanyresearchpublicationsthatEuropeisundergoingwidespreaddeindustrialization.Ongoingchangesinindustrialpotentialtendtoconfirmtheonsetofreindustrializationwherelabor-intensivejobsaregivingwaytoknowledge-basedjobs.Suchjobstendtoaddmorevalue,whichtendstooffsetthedecreasingroleofindustryintotalemployment.Thisisageneralfeatureofcountriesmakingthetransitionfromtheindustrialagetothepostindustrialagewhereeconomiesarebasedonknowledge.DivisionstructureofindustryTheexistingclassificationsystem,wherealmost90%ofindustrialactivityislabeled“SectionD”(manufacturing),doesnotallowforananalysisofchangesinthebranchstructureofindustrybasedonsections.Hence,inordertodrawanymeaningfulconclusionsaboutstructuralchangesinPolishindustry,itisnecessarytotakealookattheissueatthedivisionlevel.Researchhasshownthatthelargestnumberofemployedindividualsandthelargestvalueofproductionsoldareassociatedwiththefollowingdivisionsofindustry:1)productionoffooditemsandsoftdrinks,2)manufacturingofmachineryandotherdevices,and3)manufacturingofmetalproducts(inrecentyears).Miningcontinuestoplayanimportantroleaswell.Advancedproductiondivisions(DL30–DL33)arecharacterizedbyalowemploymentpotentialandsoldgoodspotential.Researchhasshownthattraditionallabor-intensivebranchesofindustryareonthedecline.Theseincludemining,garmentmanufacturing,textiles,leatherproductmanufacturing,machineryandotherdevicemanufacturing,energy,andchemicalproductmanufacturing(Fig.5).Industriesthathavegrownsignificantlyinrecentyearsincludemetalproductmanufacturing,rubberproductmanufacturing,syntheticmaterialmanufacturing,furnituremanufacturing,andautomobilemanufacturing.Alloftheabovecannotbeclassifiedashighlyadvancedintermsoftechnology.Itmustbenotedthatforeigncapitalplaysasignificantroleinthemanufacturingsector.ResearchattheindustrydivisionlevelhasshownthattheaforesaidmanufacturingsectorsareisamajorrecipientofforeigndirectinvestmentinPoland.AnyanalysisofchangesinPolishindustryoughttoinvolveacomparisonwithotherEuropeancountries,asitallowsforanassessmentoftherelationshipbetweenchangesinPolandandchangesinbetter-developedcountriesinWesternEurope.ThedivisionstructureofindustryinEUcountriesdifferssubstantiallyfromonecountrytoanother,basedonavailabledata.InmostEUcountries,thefoodandtobaccoindustryplaysakeyroleasdothemachineryandotherdevicesindustryandthemetalproductmanufacturingindustry.Advancedtechnologyindustries(DL30–DL33)playarathersmallrole,however,giventhattheyarenotlabor-intensive,theystillgeneratealotofvalue.ThedivisionstructureofindustryinEUstateswasanalyzedusingtheclustermethod(WardMethod)basedonacomprehensiveindexconsistingoftwoempiricalmeasures(numberofpersonsemployedandvalueofproductionsold).Theanalysisproducedfiveuniquegroupsofcountriesfor1995.Eachgrouppossessedasimilarindustrydivisionstructure(Tab.1)PolandwasassignedtoGroup4alongwithBulgaria,Romania,theCzechRepublic,andSlovakia.ChangesinindustrystructureinPolandproducedamajorchangeby2007whenPolandfounditselfinGroup1alongwithBelgium,France,GreatBritain,Holland,Spain,andDenmark,andnotwithotherCentralandEasternEuropeancountries,asexpected.ThissuggeststhatPolandisontherighttrackandindustrialrestructuringprocessesareproducingpositiveresults.ChangesintheexportsstructureandtheroleofforeigncapitalinindustrialrestructuringChangesintheexportsstructure(Fig.6)areoneexpressionoftendenciesintherestructuringofPolishindustry.Thedynamicincreaseinexportstohighly-developedcountriesaswellasaperceptibleincreaseinthequantityofhigher-techproductsbeingexportedsuchasmachineryandtransportequipmentandprocessedgoodsmayonlybeviewedasapositivesign.SuchafavorabletrendinthePolishexportsstructurehasalsobeenobservedinpreviousresearchpublications[11].Unfortunately,mostgoodsinthe“machineryandotherdevices”categoryandthe“transportequipment”categorymayonlybeclassifiedas“midleveltechnology”goods(OECDclassification).Hence,theaforesaidincreasedoesnotindicateanincreaseinhigh-techgoods.ExportsfromCentralandEasternEuropevarysignificantlyintermsoftheshareofhigh-techgoods[14,15].PolandisatthebackofthelineintheEuropeanUnionwhenitcomestohigh-techexports.NotonlyarePolishhigh-techexportssignificantlybelowtheEU-27average(16%in2007)butalsobelowthatofothercountriesintheregionsuchastheCzechRepublic,Hungary,andSlovakia(Fig.7).Polishhigh-techexportshavegrownlittlebetween1995and2007comparedtothatofotherEUcountries.FavorablechangesinthetypeofmanufacturingperformedinPolandandinPolishexportsweremadepossiblebychangesintechnologicalprocesses,whichhaveallowedfortheproductionofnewtypesofproducts.Theshifttowardsnewproductswaspromptedbyaneedtomanufacturemorespecializedproductsbyeithermaintainingcurrentproductiongoalsorfocusingproductiononasmallerarrayoffinishedgoods.Anothermeaningfulchangehasbeenashifttowardsincreasingtheselectionofnewandimprovedproductsdesignedtoserveexistingneeds.Finally,Polishmanufacturinghasmadeanefforttooffermoretypesofexistingproducts.Towardstheendoftheeraofthecentrally-plannedeconomy(late1980s),Polishindustrialenterprisespossessedlargelyoutdatedphysicalassetsthatdidnotallowthemtocompeteinamarket-basedenvironmentandlimitedtheirabilitytointroducenewtechnologies.Theintroductionoffundamentaltechnologicalchangeswaspossibleinthecaseofenterprisesthatwereabletosecuresourcesoffinancing.Earlierresearchhasshown[7,8,10,11,27]thatforeigncapitalplayedasignificantroleinthisprocess,asthetechnologicalrestructuringofPolishindustrywouldnothavebeenpossiblebasedondomesticcapitalalone.PolandwasabletoattractthelargestamountofforeigncapitalamongcountriesinCentralandEasternEuropebetween1989and2001.However,onapercapitabasis,largeramountsofforeigncapitalweremadeavailabletotheCzechRepublic,Hungary,Slovenia,andEstonia[11].Polandbegantoloseitscompetitiveedgein2001-2003intermsofattractingforeigncapitalversuscountriessuchastheCzechRepublicandSlovakia.AmoredynamicinfluxofforeigncapitalhasbeenobservedonceagainfollowingPoland’sentryintotheEuropeanUnionin2004.TheconclusiondrawnbyB.Doma?ski[27]thattheoveralleffectofforeigncapitalonPolishindustrywaspositivemaybeconsideredtrue.Foreigninvestmentimprovesthecompetitivepositionofindustrialenterprisesandtheeconomyasawholebyintroducingnewertechnologiesandbetterorganizationalpractices,whichleadstoincreasedeffectivenessandfavorablestructuralchanges.Themanufacturingofhigherqualityproductshelpsgeneratelargerexportsofmanufacturedgoods,especiallytothe“old15”statesoftheEuropeanUnion.Akeyissueinthisrespectisthemodernizationofproductionlines,whichenablesthemanufacturingofhigherqualityproductsandreducestheimpactofmanufacturingonthenaturalenvironment.This,initself,isanimportantfactorinthequalityofhumanlife.Investorsalsopositivelyinfluencethecompetitivepositionoflocalenterprisesandcontributetoanincreaseinthejobqualificationsoflocalhumanresources.Plantsoperatedbyforeigninvestorsgenerateadditionalbenefitsbyworkingwithlocalsuppliersofgoodsandservices,whichincreasesemploymentatsuppliercompanies.Thisisknownasamultipliereffect[34,35,36]andithasbeenobservedinmanyindustrialareasinCentralandEasternEurope.InPoland,multipliereffectshavebeenobservedinSlaskieProvince,whichhasexperiencedasubstantialinfluxofforeigncapitalintoitsautomotivesector[37].Itmustbenoted,however,thatforeigncapitalimpactsthelabormarketlessintermsofthenumberofjobsthanintermsofthequalityofnewjobscreated.ItshouldbenotedthatinPoland,thereareno“cathedralsinthedesert”,ametaphoricalconceptdevelopedbyG.Grabher[38]todescribeforeignenterprisespoorlyembeddedintheirlocalorregionalenvironment.Suchenterprisesmakelittleeconomicimpactontheirlocalenvironment.譯文：重組過程的性質(zhì)雖然對產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整詳盡的討論不是本文的目的，但很多學(xué)者認為產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整不是一個清楚概念，可以用很多種方式了解。在歷來文獻中，人們普遍認為存在兩種不同的方法去解答這個問題：1）基于國民經(jīng)濟的研究方法2）基于企業(yè)的研究方法。一些研究者也得出了關(guān)于產(chǎn)業(yè)分支的微觀調(diào)整和在微觀宏觀之間的區(qū)域調(diào)整。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動會導(dǎo)致個體工業(yè)企業(yè)的變動。這些企業(yè)是業(yè)集中度的空間形式的基本要素。在成熟市場上，產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整可以被定義為為幫助企業(yè)成長并讓其定的企業(yè)存在和預(yù)期的條件的一種激進方法。波蘭由于其仍在進行經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型，他的情況和其他國家有所不同。因為這個原因，波蘭產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整被松散的定義為滿足市場經(jīng)濟需求而進行的調(diào)整經(jīng)營活動的行為。許多研究者認為產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整應(yīng)該滿足這三個基本條件：1）必須要持之以恒2）在實施前必須有特定的計劃3）在實施過程中應(yīng)指定特定的經(jīng)濟機制和政策。因此，不是每個企業(yè)功能的變化都可以稱為調(diào)整。在之前學(xué)者們對波蘭產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的目的、過程、影響已經(jīng)有了比較詳細研究。轉(zhuǎn)移包括不同類型的法律和金融工具。為了提高產(chǎn)業(yè)的效率、競爭力、創(chuàng)新力，波蘭對其就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進行了調(diào)整。波蘭產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整的外部因素波蘭產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整受多種因素影響，可分為國際和國內(nèi)因素。來自國際的因素可以歸結(jié)為全球經(jīng)濟一體化進程，包括：1）全球經(jīng)濟中跨國企業(yè)資本集中度和整體競爭力的上升給波蘭在全球市場上帶來了巨大壓力2）歐盟的整合是一個關(guān)鍵因素3）外國企業(yè)在波蘭扮演越來越重要的角色，引導(dǎo)波蘭本土企業(yè)走出去4）經(jīng)濟活動的具體形式比如外部采購、離岸外包、分拆。5）科學(xué)技術(shù)迅猛發(fā)展，特別是在信息技術(shù)領(lǐng)域、自動化、電子化。6）服務(wù)產(chǎn)業(yè)、軟件產(chǎn)業(yè)、中小制造業(yè)的制造7)更短的產(chǎn)品生命周期和從規(guī)模經(jīng)濟向多樣性經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)變一個新的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境已經(jīng)在過去三年浮現(xiàn)（2008到2010），全球經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)在金融危機中進入衰退。很多政府，包括歐盟各國政府以及其他國際機構(gòu)一直在想法設(shè)法應(yīng)對國際金融危機對社會和經(jīng)濟的影響。必須注意的是沒有足夠的時間來徹底評估危機對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動的影響。由于工業(yè)部門依賴其資本密集型和時間密集型投資進程，工業(yè)部門具有結(jié)構(gòu)慣性。我們就不能期望經(jīng)濟衰退會對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生重大改變。波蘭和其他國家正經(jīng)歷系統(tǒng)的變革，國內(nèi)問題和國際問題同樣重要。波蘭國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟管理系統(tǒng)的變化，以及波蘭市場對外國公司、商品、資本開放也尤為緊要。當然國家經(jīng)濟政策也會影響波蘭的產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整，包括新的法律（符合歐盟經(jīng)濟政策）、國家產(chǎn)業(yè)政策（國有企業(yè)私有化、創(chuàng)造經(jīng)濟特區(qū)、在多個產(chǎn)業(yè)實施調(diào)整）。工業(yè)就業(yè)和生產(chǎn)性固定資產(chǎn)總值的增加分析1995年到2007年工業(yè)就業(yè)人數(shù)占總就業(yè)人數(shù)的比例可以得出工業(yè)所起的角色越來越小。1995年到2007年波蘭工業(yè)和建筑業(yè)的比例從31.2%到29%，工業(yè)從25.5%到23.1%。兩個階段的變化已經(jīng)被認可：1995到2001年，波蘭的工業(yè)部門就業(yè)人數(shù)占總就業(yè)人數(shù)的比例迅猛的降至20.8%，2002年到2007年，這段時間有小小的反彈。必須注意的是，這次反彈很大程度上被歸功于波蘭人口普查對從事農(nóng)業(yè)工作的重新計算。但是，工業(yè)對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻越來越大。生產(chǎn)性固定資產(chǎn)總值由工業(yè)和建筑業(yè)帶來的增加從95年的42.4%降到07年的38.2%，工業(yè)部門自身從34.2%下降到30.1%。當然這期間也分為兩個階段：1）2002年之前下降2）2002年后開始增加。東歐和中歐都在進行經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型。這起因于歐盟國家在中歐和東歐繼續(xù)保持傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)以吸收大量的相對廉價的勞動力。另一方面，西歐國家也傾向于擁有更多僅需少量勞動力的現(xiàn)代產(chǎn)業(yè)來生產(chǎn)高附加值的產(chǎn)品。工業(yè)就業(yè)份額和生產(chǎn)性固定資產(chǎn)總值的大量減少已經(jīng)被這些工業(yè)就業(yè)和生產(chǎn)性固定資產(chǎn)總值增長微不足道的國家記錄。這包括歐盟老的15個成員國。加入歐盟晚于核心成員國的成員國比如西班牙、芬蘭，也經(jīng)歷了一個較小的下降。令人驚奇的是，正在經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型的東歐和中歐國家的工業(yè)下降并不是大量的。在某些情況下，工業(yè)仍然在國民經(jīng)濟中發(fā)揮重要作用。在大多數(shù)國家，工業(yè)占總就業(yè)人數(shù)和生產(chǎn)性固定資產(chǎn)增加值的份額繼續(xù)保持下降。這可以歸結(jié)為在生產(chǎn)過程中引進了先進的機器設(shè)備，從而避免了勞動力和機器設(shè)備去那些勞動力成本更低的非歐盟地區(qū)。然而，研究者發(fā)現(xiàn)在歐洲的很多地區(qū)包括一些老的歐盟成員國繼續(xù)保持大量的工業(yè)就業(yè)崗位并產(chǎn)生大量的生產(chǎn)性固定資產(chǎn)增加值。在21世紀之交（如愛爾蘭，西班牙）其工業(yè)部門動態(tài)增長總值繼續(xù)加強。這與許多研究出版物普遍接受的歐洲正在發(fā)生廣泛的產(chǎn)業(yè)空洞化的觀點相矛盾。這種工作往往添加更多的價值，這往往起到彌補下降的行業(yè)總就業(yè)人數(shù)中的作用。這是一個從工業(yè)時代向以知識為基礎(chǔ)的后工業(yè)時代過渡的國家的經(jīng)濟的一般特征。產(chǎn)業(yè)分工水平現(xiàn)有的分工系統(tǒng)，其中近90％的工業(yè)活動是標有“D節(jié)”（制造），不允許對分公司的基礎(chǔ)上行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化進行分析。因此，為了得出任何關(guān)于波蘭工業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu)性變化有意義的結(jié)論，有必要研究各部門。有研究表明，以下部門雇傭最多的勞動力和最大的產(chǎn)出價