農(nóng)林牧漁行業(yè)動(dòng)態(tài)點(diǎn)評(píng)：稻麥供需仍偏緊玉米大豆維持寬松

圖表4：全球大豆主要產(chǎn)地產(chǎn)量明細(xì)數(shù)據(jù)，主要地區(qū)巴西大豆2023/24年度產(chǎn)量預(yù)期下修2016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242023/242023/24環(huán)比2023/24同比巴西大豆產(chǎn)量百萬(wàn)噸114.6122.0119.7128.5139.5130.5162.0156.0155.0-0.6%-4.3%美國(guó)大豆產(chǎn)量百萬(wàn)噸116.9120.1120.596.7114.8121.5116.2113.3113.30.0%-2.5%阿根廷大豆產(chǎn)量百萬(wàn)噸55.037.855.348.846.243.925.050.050.00.0%100.0%中國(guó)大豆產(chǎn)量百萬(wàn)噸13.615.316.018.119.616.420.320.820.80.0%2.8%巴拉圭大豆產(chǎn)量百萬(wàn)噸0.010.58.510.39.64.210.110.310.30.0%2.5%全球大豆產(chǎn)量百萬(wàn)噸349.3342.1361.0339.0367.8360.4378.1398.2396.9-0.3%5.0%資料來(lái)源：USDA、3USDA對(duì)美國(guó)大豆供需形勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)與上月保持一致。同比來(lái)看，2023/24年度美豆期末19.2%2022/231.5pct。美國(guó)大豆期末庫(kù)銷(xiāo)比處近1070%的分位數(shù)，供應(yīng)格局或保持寬松。圖表5：美國(guó)大豆供需平衡表2016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242023/242023/24環(huán)比2023/24同比美國(guó)大豆期初庫(kù)存百萬(wàn)噸5.48.211.924.714.37.07.57.27.20.0%-3.7%美國(guó)大豆產(chǎn)量百萬(wàn)噸116.9120.1120.596.7114.8121.5116.2113.3113.30.0%-2.5%進(jìn)口百萬(wàn)噸0.60.60.40.40.50.40.70.80.80.0%22.4%美國(guó)大豆總供給百萬(wàn)噸122.9128.9132.8121.8129.6128.9124.4121.4121.40.0%-2.4%國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)百萬(wàn)噸55.758.960.461.960.962.963.066.066.00.0%4.8%壓榨量百萬(wàn)噸51.755.956.958.958.360.060.262.662.60.0%4.0%出口百萬(wàn)噸59.058.147.745.761.758.654.246.846.80.0%-13.7%美國(guó)大豆總消費(fèi)百萬(wàn)噸114.7116.9108.1107.6122.6121.5117.2112.8112.80.0%-3.7%美國(guó)大豆期末庫(kù)存百萬(wàn)噸8.211.924.714.37.07.57.28.68.570.0%19.2%美國(guó)大豆庫(kù)銷(xiāo)比7.2%10.2%22.9%13.3%5.7%6.2%6.1%7.6%7.6%0.0%1.5%資料來(lái)源：USDA、32023/243月農(nóng)村2023/24年度中國(guó)大豆供需形勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)與上月保持一致。2023/24年度中國(guó)大豆期80.2%，中國(guó)大豆供需格局趨緊形勢(shì)或不改。圖表62016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242023/242023/24環(huán)比2023/24同比播種面積億畝1.11.21.31.41.51.31.51.61.60.0%2.2%收獲面積億畝1.11.21.31.41.51.31.51.61.60.0%2.2%單產(chǎn)公斤/畝119.7123.5127.0129.0132.2130.1132.0132.7132.70.0%0.6%產(chǎn)量百萬(wàn)噸12.915.316.018.119.616.420.320.820.80.0%2.8%進(jìn)口百萬(wàn)噸93.594.182.698.599.890.398.797.397.30.0%-1.5%消費(fèi)百萬(wàn)噸108.1107.1102.9108.6113.3108.0114.2117.0117.00.0%2.5%壓榨消費(fèi)百萬(wàn)噸92.90.086.791.095.090.595.997.897.80.0%1.9%食用消費(fèi)百萬(wàn)噸11.20.012.513.814.213.614.315.015.00.0%4.7%種子用量百萬(wàn)噸0.70.00.80.80.80.90.90.90.90.0%2.2%損耗及其他百萬(wàn)噸3.40.02.93.03.33.03.03.33.30.0%10.0%出口百萬(wàn)噸0.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.0%66.7%結(jié)余變化百萬(wàn)噸-1.82.2-4.47.96.1-1.44.70.90.90.0%-80.2%資料來(lái)源：農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部、玉米：產(chǎn)量預(yù)期小幅下修，供應(yīng)格局仍較寬松南非等地產(chǎn)量預(yù)期下修，期末庫(kù)銷(xiāo)比下調(diào)。3月，USDA2023/24年度全球玉米產(chǎn)23312.3下修影響。其中南非玉米減產(chǎn)主要因其單產(chǎn)預(yù)期降低；墨西哥玉米產(chǎn)量預(yù)期因其冬季玉米100萬(wàn)噸；從最新的收成報(bào)告考慮，3USDA100萬(wàn)噸。阿根廷341.9014812.11452.022023/242433.200.2pct22.6%1060%分位數(shù)，全球玉米供需格局仍較寬松。同比來(lái)看，2023/246.0%、期末庫(kù)銷(xiāo)2022/230.2pct。圖表7：全球玉米供需平衡表2023/242023/24二月三月2023/242023/242016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)環(huán)比同比百萬(wàn)噸292.9百萬(wàn)噸292.9310.7300.3301.60.5%-2.9%期初庫(kù)存全球玉米產(chǎn)量百萬(wàn)噸 1123.41080.11124.91120.11129.41218.71157.51232.61230.2-0.2%6.3%進(jìn)口百萬(wàn)噸 135.6149.9164.4167.7184.9184.4172.6189.8189.5-0.2%9.8%全球玉米總供給百萬(wàn)噸 1570.51582.01630.31610.21621.71696.01640.81722.61721.3-0.1%4.9%飼料消費(fèi)百萬(wàn)噸 656.1672.4703.9716.0723.9745.2729.6761.8761.60.0%4.4%國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)百萬(wàn)噸 1084.11090.51144.81136.21144.01201.11166.61210.81212.20.1%3.9%出口百萬(wàn)噸 160.1148.2181.7172.3182.7206.6180.2200.8202.30.7%12.3%全球玉米總消費(fèi)百萬(wàn)噸 1244.21238.71326.51308.41326.71407.71346.81411.61414.50.2%5.0%全球玉米 350.8 341.6321.1306.4292.8百萬(wàn)噸310.5301.6322.1319.6-0.8%6.0%期末庫(kù)存全球玉米庫(kù)銷(xiāo)比 28.2% 27.6%24.2%23.4%22.1%22.1%22.4%22.8%22.6%-0.2pct0.2pct

311.5 352.0 341.0 322.4 307.4資料來(lái)源：USDA、圖表8：阿根廷玉米產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)及環(huán)比 圖表9：墨西哥玉米產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)及環(huán)比(百萬(wàn)噸) 阿根廷玉米產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè) 環(huán)比575656555554542023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/1532023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/1

2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%2024/30.0%2024/3

(百萬(wàn)噸) 墨西哥玉米產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè) 環(huán)比2827262524232023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/12024/2222023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/12024/2

0.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%-2.0%-2.5%-3.0%-3.5%-4.0%2024/3-4.5%2024/3資料來(lái)源：USDA、 資料來(lái)源：USDA、美國(guó)玉米供給需求端預(yù)測(cè)較上月一致，供需格局持續(xù)寬松。3月，USDA2023/24年3.903.1614.9%，所有指標(biāo)較上月均未調(diào)整，美國(guó)玉米供需格局或仍寬松。圖表10：美國(guó)玉米供需平衡表2023/242023/24二月三月2023/242023/242016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)環(huán)比同比百萬(wàn)噸期初庫(kù)存百萬(wàn)噸期初庫(kù)存44.158.354.456.448.831.435.034.5534.550.0%-1.2%美國(guó)玉米產(chǎn)量 百萬(wàn)噸384.8371.1364.3346.0358.5382.9346.7389.69389.690.0%12.4%進(jìn)口 百萬(wàn)噸1.50.90.71.10.60.61.00.640.640.0%-34.7%美國(guó)玉米總供給 百萬(wàn)噸430.4430.3419.3403.4407.8414.9382.7424.88424.880.0%11.0%飼料消費(fèi) 百萬(wàn)噸138.9134.7137.9149.9142.4145.3139.4144.15144.150.0%3.4%國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi) 百萬(wàn)噸313.8314.0310.5309.6306.7317.1306.0316.37316.37-0.1%3.4%出口 百萬(wàn)噸58.361.952.545.169.862.842.253.3453.340.0%26.4%美國(guó)玉米總消費(fèi) 百萬(wàn)噸372.1375.9362.9354.7376.5379.9348.2369.71369.71-0.1%6.2%美國(guó)玉米期百萬(wàn)噸58.354.456.448.831.435.034.655.1755.170.5%59.7%末庫(kù)存美國(guó)玉米庫(kù)銷(xiāo)比15.7%14.5%15.5%13.7%8.3%9.2%9.9%14.9%14.9%0.1pct5.0pct資料來(lái)源：USDA、32023/24年度中國(guó)玉米供需形勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)與上月保持一致，產(chǎn)需缺口收窄趨32023/24年度中國(guó)玉米供需形勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)與上月保持一致。2023/242022/23715萬(wàn)噸；玉米期末結(jié)余同比增加110%，2023/24年度國(guó)內(nèi)玉米產(chǎn)需缺口收窄趨勢(shì)或不改。圖表11：中國(guó)玉米供需平衡表2016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242023/242023/24環(huán)比2023/24同比播種面積億畝6.66.46.36.26.26.56.56.66.60.0%2.7%收獲面積億畝6.66.46.36.26.26.56.56.66.60.0%2.7%單產(chǎn)公斤/畝397.8407.3406.9421.1421.1419.4429.1435.5435.50.0%1.5%產(chǎn)量百萬(wàn)噸263.6259.1257.2260.8260.7272.6277.2288.8288.80.0%4.2%進(jìn)口百萬(wàn)噸2.53.54.57.629.621.918.717.517.50.0%-6.5%消費(fèi)百萬(wàn)噸258.8270.3279.8278.3282.2287.7290.5295.0295.00.0%1.5%食用消費(fèi)百萬(wàn)噸9.39.49.49.49.69.79.89.99.90.0%1.1%飼用消費(fèi)百萬(wàn)噸169.0172.0176.0174.0180.0186.0188.0191.0191.00.0%1.6%工業(yè)消費(fèi)百萬(wàn)噸66.075.081.082.080.080.081.082.482.40.0%1.7%種子用量百萬(wàn)噸1.91.91.91.91.92.01.91.91.90.0%1.0%損耗及其他百萬(wàn)噸12.612.011.511.010.710.19.89.89.80.0%-0.2%出口百萬(wàn)噸0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0%0.0%結(jié)余變化百萬(wàn)噸7.2-7.7-18.2-9.98.16.75.411.311.30.0%110.2%產(chǎn)需缺口百萬(wàn)噸4.8-11.2-22.6-17.5-21.5-15.2-13.3-6.2-6.20.0%53.7%資料來(lái)源：農(nóng)村農(nóng)業(yè)部、小麥：期末庫(kù)銷(xiāo)比下修，供需格局或趨緊總供給量及總消費(fèi)量預(yù)期齊上調(diào)，期末庫(kù)銷(xiāo)比小幅下修，供需格局趨緊或不改。3月，受967.87億USDA1467.99USDA1442.12總消費(fèi)增加的幅度，2023/24612.59億噸，為自2016/17年度以來(lái)的最低水平，期末庫(kù)銷(xiāo)比下修0.1pct至25.6%、供需緊張趨勢(shì)或不改。圖表12：全球小麥供需平衡表2023/242023/24二月三月2023/242023/242016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)環(huán)比同比全球小麥245.0262.8287.2281.2298.2284.1272.