世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇-在支離破碎的世界中塑造合作（英）-2024.1

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4Images:GettyImagesContentsPreface34ExecutivesummaryIntroduction:Newapproachestoglobalcooperation1

Globalsecurity:“Cooperation”inanageofdistrustandinsecurity2

Climate:Rethinkingclimategovernance3

Technology:

Taming

–andunleashing–technologytogether4

Trade:

ExpandingandrebalancingglobaltradeAppendix:MembersoftheGlobalFutureCouncilontheFutureofGeopoliticsContributors57111518212223EndnotesDisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.The?ndings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.?2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.ShapingCooperationinaFragmentingWorld2January2024ShapingCooperationinaFragmentingWorldPrefaceTheWorldEconomicForum’s

networkofGlobalFutureCouncilsisamultistakeholderandinterdisciplinaryknowledgecommunitydedicatedtopromotinginnovativethinkingtoshapeamoreresilient,inclusiveandsustainablefuture.Theideaspresentedinthefollowingreportdrawondiscussionsthattookplaceamongthecouncilmembers–bothinpersonandvirtually–overthecourseof2023.Whileeachchapterofthisreportisinformedbytheinsightsgeneratedduringcouncildiscussions,thechaptersrepresenttheviewsoftherespectiveauthorsaloneandshouldbeunderstoodandattributedassuch.ThemandateoftheGlobalFutureCouncilontheFutureofGeopoliticsistoofferinsightintothecurrent,turbulentgeopoliticalcontextandtoidentifyopportunitiesforrevitalizingorrebuildingmechanismsofcooperationtoadvancesharedinterestwithinthiscontext.ShapingCooperationinaFragmentingWorld3Executive

summaryOngoingglobalchallengesdemandcollaborativesolutions.Strengtheningglobalcooperationisessentialforasafer,

healthierandmoreprosperousworld.Yet,

thecurrent,turbulentgeopoliticalcontextinwhichcon?ictandcompetitionare

increasinghaspulledstakeholdersapartattheverymomentthatacuteandongoingglobalchallengesdemandcollaborativesolutions.change,theinternationalcommunityshouldreframeinvestmentsinrenewablesandclimate-smarttechnologiesasopportunitiesandensuretheGlobalSouthandGlobalNorthbene?tequallyfromtheseinvestments.Climate-forwardlendingpoliciesfrommultilateraldevelopmentbanks,thediffusionofclimatetechnologytotheGlobalSouth,andlinkingtheclimateandhealthagendascanimprovetrustinglobalclimategovernanceandspurmoreimmediateactionagainstthisexistentialthreat.Againstthisbackdrop,theWorldEconomicForumconvenedtheGlobalFutureCouncilontheFutureofGeopoliticstoidentifyhowglobalstakeholderscancooperateinaddressingcriticalissues.Thoughbuildingcooperativepathwayswillbechallengingwithinthecurrentclimate,thecouncilmembersarguethatinnovative,inclusiveapproachestocooperationare

notonlynecessarybutpossibleinthefollowingareas:–Technology:

Frontiertechnologiescanfuelgeopoliticaltension,butdevelopingprotocolsandmechanismsforregulatingthegrowingrisksaroundthemrequirescollaboration.Recentpartnershipsattheminilaterallevelofferpromisingmodelsforcooperationandforpromotingattendanttrust.Frameworksdevelopedwithinputfromstakeholdersacrossthepublicandprivatesectors,aswellasacrosstheGlobalNorthandSouth,canfurtherstrengthennecessarytrust.–Globalsecurity:Followingdecadesofrelativeglobalstability,insecurityisrisingamidheighteneddistrust.Still,thereare

waystomanagethedistrustsothatitdoesnotpreventcollaborationorescalatetocon?ict–here,lessonsfrompreviousperiodsoftension,mostnotablytheColdWar,

offerinsightintohowmechanismscanbeestablishedtoadvancejointinterests.Thirdpartiesandmiddle-powerdiplomacycanalsobecrucialformitigatingandmediatingdisputes.Atthesametime,new,issue-speci?c,functionalbodiesthatincluderelevantstakeholderscanbeestablishedad-hocasneeded.–Trade:

Byexpandingtheglobaltradeagenda,theinternationalcommunitycancreateamorestabilizingsystemthatworkstowardsre-globalization.Leadersmustconsidertherami?cationsofsocialinclusionandclimatepolicyinmakingtradedecisionsandensurethattheeconomicbene?tsofglobaltradeare

feltmoreequallyacrosssocialclasses.Theglobaltradesystemandtheeconomicinterdependenceitcreatesofferavitalavenueforreconstructingtrustamongtheinternationalcommunity.–Climatechange:Financingforclimatechangemitigationandadaptationisdrasticallybehindglobalcommitments.To

addressclimateShapingCooperationinaFragmentingWorld4IntroductionNewapproaches

toglobalcooperationTheworldisatageopoliticalin?ectionpoint.BySamirSaranandJaneHarmanWar

israginginEurope,Africa,theMiddleEastandelsewhere.Theglobaleconomyrisksfracturingintoblocs,andtheplanetracestowardsaclimatecatastrophe.Atthesametime,breakthroughsinfrontiertechnologiesare

poisedtoreshapeindustriesandsocietieswhileraisingfundamentalquestionsaboutsafetyandprivacy.Towards

innovative,inclusivecooperationInmanyinstances,theshapeofcooperationwillneedtoberethoughtto?ttoday’s

morecontentiousgeopoliticalcontextandthecomplexityofchallenges.Leaderswillthereforeneedtobeinnovativebyidentifyingandembracingnewformsofcooperationthat,inmanycases,willnecessitatemoreinclusiveapproachesthantheyhavebeenusedtoinrecentyears.Thelatestdevelopmentsare

sobering.Thispastyearmarksthelargesteversingle-yearincreaseinforciblydisplacedpeople.hottestonrecord.

Globaleconomicrecoveryremainsbelowhistoricalaverages.

Lookingahead,just12%oftheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)are

currentlyontrack.1Theyearwasthe2This

will

require

newways

of

thinking,

and

theWorld

Economic

Forum

askeditsGlobal

FutureCouncil

on

theFuture

of

Geopoliticstoexaminewhat

cooperation

can

looklike

in

four

critical

areas:security,

climatechange,

technology

and

globaltrade.

Theaim

wastobe

“practically

optimistic”–namely,

forward-thinking,

creative

and

solution-oriented,

but

alsodoable.Inpresenting

speci?c

newideas

forhow

to

manageglobaldistrust,an

importantoperatingpremise

wasto

drawon

theinsights

ofadiversegroup

of

experts

so

that

theideas

presentedwould

be

representative

and

realistic.

The

followingchapters

offer

theviews

of

members

of

thecouncil.34Noneoftheissuesfacingtheworldtoday–ontheeconomy,environment,securityortechnology–are

con?nedbybordersorlimitedtospeci?cregions.Theworldissointerconnected;addressingthechallengescanonlytakeplacethroughmechanismsofglobalcooperation.Yet,existingstructureshavestrainedundergeopoliticalpressureorhaveshownthemselvestobeill-suitedforthechallengesconfrontingus.Thequestion,then,iswhatcancooperationlooklikeintoday’scomplexgeopoliticalcontext?AtatimewhenUNSecretary-GeneralAntónioGuterreshassaida“maladyofmistrust”isplaguingtheworld,actorswillneedtocooperateevenifBroadly,cooperationwillneedtobemission-focusedandpurpose-driven,constructedtowardsaddressingspeci?cchallenges.Inthisway,partieswillneedto–andhistoryhasshown,can–lookpastdifferencesinpursuitofcommonbene?t.theydon’talwaystrustoneanother.

Chapterone5authors,BruceJones,RaviAgrawal,AntoniodeAguiarPatriota,KarinvonHippel,Lynn

KuokandSusanaMalcorraarguethat“distrustis,intheshortandmediumtermatleast,abaked-infeatureofgeopoliticalreality”,butthatinacknowledgingthisitisalsopossibleto?ndinnovativeapproachestodiplomacy,securitycooperationandmultilateralism.Astheauthorsremindus,evenattheheightoftheColdWar,

theUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnionwereabletocooperateonglobalhealthcampaignstoeradicatesmallpox.Themultilateralcommunitymustnowdevelopcreativestrategiestomanagedistrust,suchasbydevelopinganew“M-10”groupthatenhancestheparticipationofrisingmiddlepowersinthemultilateralprocess.Identifyingcooperativeapproachesandputtingthemintopracticewon’tbeeasybutwillbenecessary.Withoutapracticalapproachtostrengtheningcooperation,con?ictswillgrowdeadlier,

theplanetwarmerandtheeconomyweaker.

Theworldwouldbelesssecure,prosperousandhealthyforyearstocome.Withoutapractical

approachto

strengtheningcooperation,con?icts

will

growdeadlier,

theplanetwarmer

and

theeconomy

weaker.ShapingCooperationinaFragmentingWorld5Arguably,theareainmostneedofimprovedcooperationandwiththehighestlevelofdistrustisglobalsecurity.There

were

moredeathsin2022fromstate-basedcon?ictsthananyyearsinceforstateandnon-stateactorsalike.Theauthorsencourageanapproachthatbringstogetherdiversestakeholdersinaglobalregulatoryprocess,suchasthroughastandingConferenceofthePartiesonthefutureoftechnology,toresponsiblyregulatecurrenttechnologiesandprepareforthefuture.1994.

Within

thiscontextofincreasedglobal6insecurity,chapteroneauthorsargueformorenimble,inclusiveapproachestocon?ictresolutionandcon?ictmanagement.Indeed,thismayrequirebothreformofcurrentmultilateralentitiesor“moreadhoc,functionalbodiesthatdealwithanissueasandwhenitarises…

andincludesthosecountriesmostaffected”.Similarly,globaltradehasemergedasadomainofincreasinggeopoliticalfrictionbutalsoanareainwhichexpansivecooperationisnotjustpossiblebutdesirable.Inchapter4,NicolaiRugeandDannyQuaharguethat“geopoliticalrivalryhaserodedthetrustthatholdstheglobaltradesystemtogether”,butexpandingthetradeagendabyhavingitaddressglobalgoals,suchasclimatechangetargets,wouldinfuseitwithasenseofcommonpurpose.Critically,ensuringleast-developedcountriesareincludedindevelopmentpathwayscreatedbytheglobaltradesystemwillbuildtrust.Onclimateaction,the2022UNClimateChangeAnnualReportsaidtheonlywaytomeetcurrentclimateobjectivesis“ifandonlyifwetakeaquantumleapinclimateaction,now.

Thatrequirestheworldtoworktogether”.

Yet,

inchapter2,7SamirSaranandDannyQuaharguethat,sofar,“theglobalclimategovernance

frameworkhasfailedtodeliver”largelybecausedevelopedcountrieshavenotfollowedthroughoncommitments,notablysteeringmuch-needed?nancingtodevelopingnations.AdaptiveapproacheswillbekeySecurity,economicandtechnologicalchallengeswilltesttheinternationalcommunity.Eachoftheseareascouldfuelgeopoliticalconfrontation,buttheyalsopresentopportunitiesforcooperation.To

capturetheseopportunitiesforcooperation,however,

stakeholderswillneedtobeinnovativebyestablishingnewprocessesormouldingexistingframeworkstomeetthecurrentmoment.Mostimportantly,theNorthStarwillneedtobetheinclusionofdiverseactors,includingthosefromrisingpowers,thosefromgeographiestoo-oftenshutoutofthemultilateralprocess,andthosefromtheprivatesectorandcivilsociety.Thisiswhy,theauthorsargue,theGlobalNorthneedstoincreasetheamountofcapitalitdeploys,andmultilateraldevelopmentbanksneedtoadjustlendingpracticesbyassumingsomeoftherisksthatpreventprivatecapitalfrom?owingtotheGlobalSouth.Atthesametime,technologiesthatadvanceclimateactioneffortsneedtobemorewidelyshared.Onewaytodothisisforgovernmentstooverridepatentprotectionsastheydointhefaceofotheremergencies.To

captureopportunity

forcooperation,however,stakeholderswill

needtobeinnovative

byestablishingnewprocesses

ormouldingexistingframeworks

tomeet

thecurrentmoment.Onemajordisrupterofthegeopoliticallandscapeistherapidadvancementoffrontiertechnologies.Chapter3authorsSamirSaran,FlaviaAlvesandVera

Songweunderscorehowthesetechnologiesare“transformingcommonlyheldnotionsofpower”Theseapproacheswillbedependenton?exibilityandagility–anecessityforpartiestoworktogethertopreventcurrenttensionsfromboilingoverintofurthergeopoliticalcrises.ShapingCooperationinaFragmentingWorld6Globalsecurity1“Cooperation”in

an

ageof

distrustand

insecurityManagingdistrustandforgingresponsesdespiteitnecessitatesnewapproachesthatincludeestablishingnewpartnershipmechanisms.ByBruceJones,RaviAgrawal,AntoniodeAguiarPatriota,KarinvonHippel,Lynn

KuokandSusanaMalcorraTheinternationalsystemhasneverbeenfreeofviolenceandinequity.Yet

today,asviolenceisrising,orderiserodingandthespectreofnuclearwariscastingitsmenacingshadow,

greaterurgency–andcreativity–isneededtoreducetheriskofcon?ict.countriesoftheGlobalSouthformore

voiceandmore

votingweightinthemanagementoftheglobaleconomicorder.

Theissueofclimateadaptationbecamea

focalpointfortensionasthedevelopingworldbeganexperiencingthecostandconsequenceofclimatechangetheydidnotcause.ThenCOVID-19hit,andthemassiveeconomicandsocialdamage,thenationalistturninBeijingandWashington

(andlater,

Europe),andthegross

inequitiesrevealed

inthevaccineresponseturnedthesesentimentsfrom

resentmenttoanger.Thechallenge:tworisingsetsoftensionsTheColdWar

sawexistentialrisk,occupation,warsofaggressionandbrutalproxycon?ictsthatkilledmillionsinAfrica,Asia,LatinAmericaandtheMiddleEast.WhenthestrategicdangersoftheColdWar

receded,civilwars?ared,asdidattendanthumanitariancrises.Thesecondsetoftensionshasarisenfrom

a

shiftinthebalanceofrelative

powerandthe(whollyworrying)re-militarizationofregionalsecurityinpartsoftheworld.Russia’s

invasionsofGeorgiaandCrimeasignalleda

returntoaggressioninEurope.MilitarytensionsintheSouthChinaSeaare

triggeringconcernofpotentialconfrontationbetweenpowers.ThisisoccurringastheaftermathofthewarsinAfghanistanandIraqandthewider“waronterrorism”campaigneroded

thecredibilityoftheWestinmuchofthebroaderMiddleEastand,tosomeextent,inotherregionsaswell.However,

then,foraquartercentury,intheabsenceofgreatpowertensions,thelevelandintensityofwardiminished–nevertotally,alwaysunevenly,butmateriallyandsigni?cantly.Theglobaleconomygrew.

Cooperation?ourished.Duringthisperiod,divisionsoverdevelopmentssuchasthewarinKosovoandtheUSwarinIraqreducedbutdidnotderailoverallcooperation.Astensionsescalated,cooperationaroundissuesofinternationalpeaceandsecurityunsurprisinglydeclined.Forinstance,America’s

withdrawalfromtheIrannucleardealremovedacriticalmechanismforsecuritymanagementintheMiddleEast.AgreementsdesignedtolimittheviolenceinSyriafailedalmostassoonastheywerenegotiated,andmajorpowerinterventionsinSyriatooktheformof(limited)proxywarwhileeffortsatjointcon?ictmanagement?zzledout.Atthesametime,compliancewitharmscontrolmechanismshaserodedamongpowerstothepointofnearcollapse,andnegotiationsovernewmechanismstobringinnewactorsare

moribund.Greatpowertensionshaveblockedeffectivediplomacyandcon?ictmanagementthroughtheUN.Cooperationheldevenunderthepressureoftheglobal?nancialcrisis,whichwasmetbythecombinedresourcesofthenewlyelevatedG20.Thatcrisis,though,exacerbatedinternaltensionswithinWesterneconomiesandbetweentheWest,emergingAsiaandthestill-developingSouth.Countriesbegantoturninwards,andcooperationbegantofray.Sincethen,twosetsofgeopoliticaltensionshavecontinuedtogrow–andtocompoundoneanother.The?rstsetoftensionshasarisenfrom

therecalcitranceoftheWest’s

responsetoa

growing(whollyjusti?ed)demandfrom

thedevelopingShapingCooperationinaFragmentingWorld7Mostrecently,therising,searingviolenceintocontributetothemanagementofregionalcon?ictandthepreventionofgreatpowerwar–recognizingthatthemultilateraldomainhasitselfbecomecompetitive.Ethiopia,Ukraine,Nagorno-Karabakh,IsraelandGazahascausedimmenseciviliancasualties.Thesecon?ictsalsohavehadenormousglobalspillovereffects,heighteningtensionsandimpedingattemptsto?ndcommongroundoncriticalglobalchallenges.EffortstorespondthroughtheUNhaveachievedlittlebuttoshowcasegeopoliticaldivisions.Addressingthisslateofchallenges?rstrequireseschewingvaguehopesthatsharedglobalthreatswilldecisivelyoutweighnationaltensions;thereislittleevidencethattheydo,andtheworldhasjustlivedthroughseveralepisodesthatAnewapproachtomultilateralcooperationsuggesttheopposite.Thenotionthateconomicinterdependenceandrationalitywillforestallwarmustalsobeabandoned.Rather,

thestartingpointmustbetorecognizethatdistrustis,intheshortandmediumtermatleast,abaked-infeatureofgeopoliticalreality.Then,designapproachespremisedondistrustratherthanhopingitwillfade.Theserealitiesrequireresolveandinnovationintherealmsofdiplomacy,investmentsindeterrenceandcooperationinresponsetoaggression.(ItisessentialthatsuchcooperationisundertakenindefenceofthecorepurposesoftheUNCharter,evenifprimarilythroughChapterVIIIinstitutionsratherthanthroughtheUNitself.)Managingdistrustandforgingresponsesdespiteitrequiresthreeconceptualshifts:–Recognizingthatcollaborationispossibleevenunderconditionsofintensedistrust:TheUSandtheSovietUnionrepeatedlyMostimportantisreneweddiplomacybetweentheworld’s

twolargestpowers,theUnitedStatesandChina.Thiswouldhelp–oratleaststophindering–theresolutionofinternationalcon?ictsandglobalchallenges.Progressonmilitary-to-militarychannelsformanagingcrisesandavoidingunintendedescalationisvital.Asisaneventualreturntoarmscontrolnegotiations.provedthisduringtheColdWar.

LessonsfromepisodesliketheWashington-Moscowcollaborationoneradicatingsmallpoxneedtobere-learned.(Thoughanotherlessonthoseepisodesrevealmustalsoberecognized:issue-speci?ccollaborationdoesnotbleedintowidercomityofrelations.Afterall,justafterMoscowandWashingtoncollaboratedonsmallpoxeradication,theCubanMissileCrisisoccured,themostdangerousmomentoftheColdWar.)The

startingpoint

mustbetorecognize

thatdistrust

is,in

theshortand

mediumtermat

least,

abaked-in

feature

ofgeopolitical

reality.Themultilateralrealmmustalsobereconceptualizedandretooled–revitalizingthecapacityofkeymultilateralmechanismsShapingCooperationinaFragmentingWorld8–Usingthirdparties:Everythingthatwaslearntfromfourdecadesofpost-ColdWar

innovationincrisismanagementindicatesthatthirdpartiesarekeytomanagingtheproblemofdistrust.ThereisalsoampleevidencefromtheColdWarofthevalueofthirdpartiesandquietdiplomacy(oftenatorthroughtheUN)inbrokeringoff-ramps,de-escalationandcrisisavoidance.thecombinedgeopoliticalclouttochangethetermsofdebatearound

viablepathwaystowarterminationanda

stablepeace.Sucha

group

couldalsoagitatefora

returntoarmscontrol

negotiations–

byusingitsbilateralrelationswiththegreat

powerstourgea

focusonstability,byinvestinginthediplomacyofnewnegotiations,and,where

relevant,bysupportingmultilateralarmscontrol

arrangements.–Investinginmiddle-powerdiplomacy:Throughoutthehistoryofmultilateralinstitutions,so-called“middlepowers”

havebeenthe8Createnewadhocinternationalforumsdrivingsourceofinnovationandhaveplayedakeyroleingreatpowercon?ictpreventionandde-escalation.Althoughthetermhasuntilrecentlybeencon?nedtoWesterncountries,shiftsintheglobalbalanceofpowermeanthatthisfunctionextendsbeyondtheWestto“rising”powerselsewhere.There

shouldalsobemore

adhoc,functionalbodiesthatdealwithanissue,countryorregionasandwhennecessaryandinvolvethosecountriesmostaffected.Suchforumsshouldnotrequire

bricksandmortarheadquarterswithpermanentstaff

butratherenhancedmodalitiesforcollaborationbetweencountriesinvolvedforaslongastheissueremains

inplay.Operationalizingtheseconceptscouldbeachievedthroughavarietyofmechanisms.USPresidentBidenhasbecomethe?rstAmericanPresidentsincetheendoftheColdWar

toadvocateforUNSecurityCouncilexpansion.AsplansgetunderwayfortheUN’s

“SummitoftheFuture”in2024,theUSshouldintensifyitsdiplomacyhere;buttherearefurtheropportunitiesaswell.Currently,therisktograinandfertilizershippingoutofBlackSeaportsshouldbemitigatedthroughthecreationofaneutralnationsnavaltaskforcethatcouldescortshipstransitingtheBlackSeatohelpsecurestabilityinglobalfoodmarkets.Thiscouldalsoserveasatestinggroupforthenotionofmorerobustmultilateralcooperationatsea,whichwouldhaveimportantusesinothercontestedwaters.Thefollowingcouldserveasotherstartingpointsforanewapproachtomanagingcompetitivemultilateralism.Establisha“middle/majorpowers”grouping–anM-10(orsimilar)Practicesafety-netdiplomacyAsdevastatingasaretheconsequencesofRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,theconsequencesofdirectcon?ictbetweentheUnitedStatesandChinacouldbeevengraver–butthatoutcomeisgrowingmoreandmorelikely.Avoidingitwillrequire,aboveall,restraintandcalibrationonthepartofBeijingandWashington.Thehistoryofcrisismanagementindicatestheneedforsafetynetsorguardrails,mechanismsthatbothpowerscanturnto,totriggerde-escalation.Atthismomentofintenseneed,astandingmechanismthatlinksthewesternmajorandmiddlepowerswiththenon-Westernones(Brazil,India,SouthAfrica,theUnitedArabEmirates,etc.)wouldcreateadiplomaticmechanismthatcouldstraddletheincreasinglybifurcatedworldsoftheG7,QuadrilateralSecurityDialogue(theQuad)andtheexpandedBRICS(Brazil,Russia,India,ChinaandSouthAfrica,plusnewlyadmittedEgypt,Ethiopia,Iran,SaudiArabiaandtheUnitedArabEmirates).TheG20,consistingoftheEuropeanUnion,theAfricanUnionand19countries,includingChina,RussiaandtheUnitedStates,isboundupinthegeopoliticaltensionsoftheday.Theproposedgrouping–akindof“coalitionofthecapable”–wouldhavethediplomatic?exibilityandhefttoraisethecoststothegreatpowersforactionsorbehaviourthatseriouslyunderminedthemultilateralorderandthequietdiplomaticchannelstohelp?ndde-escalatoryoff-rampsandsimilarmechanisms.For

instance,

after

the

Cuban

MissileCrisis,

the

SovietUnion

launched

a

major

naval

build-upto

attempt

tomatch

American

strength

at

sea.

This

resulted

in

adynamic

of

frequent

near-misses

and

near-accidentsin

theAtlantic.

In

1968,

the

US

called

for

negotiationsover

an

agreement

to

limit

this

risk,

and

after

twoyears,

the

Soviets

agreed

to

start

talks.

Two

yearslater

–

despite

relations

being

near

the

nadir–

the1972

US-Soviet

Incidents

at

Sea

agreement

wassigned,

creating

a

tool

that

helped

avoidescalationduring

the

tensest

years

of

the

Cold

War.Withinthis,there

shouldbea

“middlepowersmediationgroup”

onissueslikeRussia/Ukraine.Unlikethevariousunilateralpeaceinitiativesattemptedtodate,a

middle-powersgroupingwithcross-regional

representation

wouldhavethediplomaticweight,therangeofperspectivesandTheforeignanddefenceministriesofthecapablepowers,aswellastheUN,shouldre-examineandpublicizelessonssuchasthisandinvestintheneededdiplomaticandanalyticalcapacityforsimilarresponses.ShapingCooperationinaFragmentingWorld9Establishamulti-nationalreferencegrouponthelawsofarmedcon?ictandinternationalhumanitarianlawMultilateralmechanismsinternationalhumanitarianlaw;engageinquietdiplomacydesignedtosupportcompliancewiththoselaws;andinvestinmonitoringanddocumentationmechanismsthatcouldbeusedtosupportposthocaccountability.remain

essentialtoavoidingwars,saving

livesandpromoting

stability,even

if,

inthepast,they

maymainlyhave

mattered

inselective

moments.CorrectingthecoursetocollisionBoththeUNandtheInternationalCommitteeoftheRedCross(ICRC)arestewardsofthekeyinternationalinstrumentsdesignedtolimitwarandregulateitsprosecution,butatpresent,neitherbodycarriesthenecessarydiplomaticweighttoin?uencebehaviourbyleadingmilitarypowers.TheSecretary-GeneralandthePresidentoftheICRCcouldcreateadiplomaticmechanismcomprisedofdiplomatsandinternationallegalexpertsfromadozenorsoleadingcountriesfromeveryregion.ThiscouldserveasanadhocreferencegrouptospeakoutindefenceofthekeyprovisionsoftheUNCharter,

thelawsofarmedcon?ictandTheworldisona

collisioncourse,andboththeglobaleconomyandcapacitytomanageglobalchallengesarelikelytobecollateraldamage–indeed,theyalreadyare.Avoidingacutecriseswillrequirecourageandcreativity.Muchofthismustli