股票外匯技術(shù)分析英文版(46)課件

17四月2024股票外匯技術(shù)分析英文版(46)SeasonalitiesSince19662TeamedupwithWileyFocusonContent43rdStockTrader’sAlmanac4thCommodityTrader’sAlmanacAlmanacInvestor:Web,Alerts,Blog,Twitter,LinkedInBrandNewRevampedSite&e-DeliveryETFLabAlmanacInvestorBookSeries3AlmanacInvestingPhilosophyThosewhostudymarkethistoryareboundtoprofitfromit.4-YearPresidentialElectionCycleSeasonalityWar&TheMarketsRecurringPatternsCurrentTrendsFundamentalsTechnicalsMarketInternalsEconomy4“EarlyinMarch(1960),

Dr.ArthurF.Burnscalledonme…

Burns’conclusionwasthatunlesssome

decisiveactionwastaken,andtakensoon,

wewereheadingforanothereconomicdip

whichwouldhititslowpointinOctober,

justbeforetheelections.”—RichardM.Nixon(37thU.S.President,

SixCrises,1913-1994)54-YearElectionCycle177-YearSagaGov’tManipulatesEconomyPrimePump3rdYearMostgainsin

2ndhalfoftermPost&MidtermBearMarketsDirtyWorkEarly*Basedonannualclose;Priorto1886basedonCowlesandotherindices;12MixedStocks,10Rails,2Industrials1886-1889;20MixedStocks,18Rails,2Industrials1890-1896;Railroadaverage1897(FirstindustrialaveragepublishedMay26,1896)6MidtermBottomsNoBottom1986&2006CycleIsBackBottomPickersParadise1934Dow–23%Feb-JulyWorseforDemocrats7WorseforDemocrats18Bull&BearsSince1953Only5BottomsinPre-orElection8TopsMidtermWorstforDemocratsDemsReclaimAfterEconDuress8BottomPickersParadiseOftenDuringCrisis2009PaidRightAwayMayPayAgainin2010UnmetPromises9of14BearsSince1961EndedinMidtermBottomRecordSince19611962 Kennedy(D) BottomsinJuneandOctober.1966 Johnson(D) BottominOctober.1970 Nixon(R) BottominMay.1974 Nixon,Ford(R) DecemberDowbottom,

S&PbottominOctober.1978 Carter(D) Marchbottom,despite

Octobermassacrelater.1982 Reagan(R) BottominAugust.1986 Reagan(R) Nobottomin1985or1986.1990 Bush(R) BottomOctober11

(KuwaitiInvasion).1994 Clinton(D) BottomApril4after10%drop.1998 Clinton(D) October8bottom(Asiancurrency

crisis,hedgefunddebacle)2002 Bush,GW(R) October9bottom(Corp malfeasance,terrorism,Iraq)2006 Bush,GW(R) NoBottomin2006

(Iraqsuccess,creditbubble)9WhyA50%GainMedian=50.6%High=89.6%Low=14.5%6JanMidtermLows(25%)4OctMidtermLows(16.7%)PlusOctLowsin1962,1974,1978,19989DecPre-ElectHighs(37.5%)6HighsLastDay(16.7%)10FinancialCrisesImpactSpecialFeaturein2010STALongerRecoveryTimeLikely,Already2.5YearsBut50%MovecouldgiveusNewHighin201111TenWorstBearMarketsSamePageasCrisesOnlyWWIIAvertedRecession12WhySeasonalityExistsAgriculturemadeAugust

BestMonth1900-1950NowwehavetheSummerDoldrumsTradingVolumeDeclinesEndofQ3WeekafterTripleWitchingDownYearendInfluencesQ1Earnings–Best6Months1321-YearSeasonalPattern14DJIA1-YearPattern15BestSixMonths16BestSixMonths+Timing17BSM+MACD+4-YearCycleHalftheTradesTripleReturnsCombine:Best6Months4-YearCycleMACDTiming18BestMonthsComparison19Year’sBest3-MonthSpan20SantaClausRallyIfSantaClausShouldFailtoCall

BearsMayCometo

Broad&WallFirstSignalWatchOtherIndicatorsFirst5DaysJanuaryBarometerDecemberLowPrice&VolumeAction&Internals21First5DaysEarlyWarningEasilySkewed31of36Ups12of23DownsPost-Election10of144of5ups6of9downsMidtermContrary7of15&1of8BasedonS&P50022JanuaryBarometerDevisedByYaleHirschin1972AsS&PGoesinJanuary,SoGoesYearOnly6MajorErrors:90.0%,10Flat:73.3%10outof15MidtermYearsDoubtersGoBefore20thAmendment4OddYearsWrong:9/11,Iraq2003,2005Flat,2009January2008wasaheckofaSignal2009DownJanSignaledMoreDrop,2010SoFarEveryDownJanSince1950:NeworCont.Bear,

10%CorrectionorFlatYear23DownJanuarys24JanuaryBarometerVs.All25DecemberLowIndicator26DownJan&DecLowCross27DownJan&DecLowCross

w/+SantaRally&1st5Days28ProvingGroundsNewsletterFeatureExpandDigDeeperExploreNew&OldDebunkQueriesFewSamples29WaterfallDeclinesDow800April1975Down12-28%

In2-4MonthsBackin3-8MonthsDJIA2007-2009

2Waterfalls-28%Oct-Nov2008-27.5%Jan-Mar2009InFeb10500ByJuneThen9000–10500Again30War&TheMarkets313Peaks–DomedHouse322000-2009Major3PeaksDowJonesIndustrials1996-Jan2010

MonthlyClosingHigh,Low&Close33CurrentMinor3PeaksDowJonesIndustrials–ThreePeaksandaDomedHouse

(3/2/2009-2/11/2010–DailyHigh,Low&Close)34FourHorsemenoftheEconomyTheDowConsumerConfidenceInflationUnemploymentRateColtoftheEconomyInitialJoblessClaims35ColtoftheEconomy36WentBearishLate20072007ForecastDow14000NegativeSeasonalsCalledRecession&BearinMarch2008FourHorsemanofEconomyCollapse2008ForecastDow10667Breached372009Bullish/2010CautiousBullMarketUnderwayAdvisedBuyBelow8000NowSeasonalBuyTriggeredDow11000-12000byQ12010–NotQuitePullbackMaybeBear20-30%in2010Then50%Rally-MaybeNewHighsin2011Dow40000by2018–500%move38“Ifthemarketdoesnotrally,

asitshouldduringbullishseasonalperiods,

itisasignthatotherforcesarestronger

andthatwhentheseasonalperiodends

thoseforceswillreallyhavetheirsay.”—EdsonGould(Stockmarketanalyst,

Findings&Forecasts,1902-1987)39SeasonalityQuestioned“SellinMay”Panned–YetHighlyTalkedaboutSeasonalityNotPerfect–ButUndeniableBest6MonthsLongTermWinner18.9%DJIALastWorst6–StillNegativeNotJustTradingTactic–ValuableIndicatorLate2007/2008–BadSeasonalityGotUsOutOneOfManyToolsInTradingTacticsSeasonalityTrumped–MorePowerfulForces401973-74BadSeasonality1stBack-to-Back

BSMLossSince1974Worst6in’74NastyFollowedByBigMoveNext2YearsStrongWorst6Badin2008

Greatin2009GoodIndication

ForQ42009-Q12010NotJustSeasonallyConcern2010WSM41OctoberphobiaCrashesin1929&1987554-PointDrop10/27/97Back-to-BackMassacres1978-19792007Top2008BiggestMonthlyPointDrop&WorstWeekOctoberBestMonthToBuy42DJIA1-YearPatternSeasonalityAverage%ReturnStartFinish25-Year10-Year5-YearOct(B)May(M)13.7%8.4%5.3%43DJIABest6MosMACDBuy44DiamondsDJIA30(DIA)Added10/9@98.6945S&P5001-YearPatternSeasonalityAverage%ReturnStartFinish25-Year10-Year5-YearOct(B)May(M)12.2%6.8%5.0%46SPDRS&P500(SPY)Added10/9@107.2647NASDAQ1-YearPatternSeasonalityAverage%ReturnStartFinish25-Year10-Year5-YearOct(B)Jun(E)17.3%10.2%6.3%48PowerSharesQQQ(QQQQ)Added10/9@42.4849Russell2000SeasonalityAverage%ReturnStartFinish25-Year10-Year5-YearOct(B)Jun(E)15.0%13.6%6.9%50iSharesRussell2000(IWM)Added10/9@61.42SmallCapStrugglesWeakJanEffectLateStageOfBull51StockSectorSeasonality52iSharesS&PGlobalEnergy(IXC)AddedNov@36.40StoppedinFebTighterstopatJanPivotvsOctlow5343YearsRunningMidtermEditionBottomPickers

FindParadiseHowFinancialCrisesImpactMarket&10WorstBearsPlusUpdatedSeasonalities&Dow,S&P,NASDAQ,Russell1K&2KData544thEditionCommodityAlmanacTeamedwithJohnPersonMatchingStocks&ETFstoCommoditySeasonalityAddedS&PandBondsPound,Euro,Swiss&Yen13Commodities:Energy,Metals,Grains,Softs,MeatsTimingTools,CaseStudiesCOTReportRelatedSecuritiesSpecsTopSeasonalTra