UNDP-貧困與緬甸家庭經濟：一個正在消失的中產階級 POVERTY AND THE HOUSEHOLD ECONOMY OF MYANMAR a Disappearing Middle Class

POVERTYANDTHEHOUSEHOLD

ECONOMYOFMYANMAR:

aDisappearingMiddleClass

APRIL2024

Copyright?UNDP2024

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Tanintharyi

Map1:

TheStatesandRegionsofMyanmar

Kachin

Sagaing

Chin

Shan

Mandalay

Magway

Rakhine

NayPyiTaw

Kayah

Bago

AyeyarwadyYangonKayin

Mon

Pakistan

Nepal

Bhutan

India

Bangladesh

India

Myanmar

China

Vietnam

Laos

Thailand

Philippines

Cambodia

SriLanka

Malaysia

Indonesia

1

Contents

Abbreviations 3

Executive

Summary 4

ThePeople’sPulseSurvey2023 7

DataandMethodology 8

TheStatusoftheHouseholdEconomy 10

1.Sustainedeconomichardship 10

2.Adisappearingmiddleclass 17

3.Budgetbites:Crowdingoutofhouseholdhuman

developmentexpenditures 21

4.Intensifyingsocialconsequences:exhaustingcoping

mechanismsandalternatives 23

5.Poverty 26

6.Conclusion 34

AppendixTables 36

POVERTYANDTHEHOUSEHOLDECONOMYOFMYANMAR:ADISAPPEARINGMIDDLECLASS

2

Tables

Table1:Summaryofrespondents’information 9

Table2:Povertyheadcountanddepthatthenationalpovertyline

bystate/region(%) 30

Table3:Childpovertyheadcountatthenationalpovertylinebystate/region(%) 31

Figures

Figure1:Nominalincomechangesoversurveys(%) 12

Figure2:State/regionhouseholdincomechangecomparison,PPS2023andHWS-5(%) 14

Figure3:Sourcesofincomebynational,urban/ruralandassetquintiles 16

Figure4:Monthlyincomepercapitabynational,rural/urbanandsocio-economicstatus 17

Figure5:Monthlyincomepercapitabystate/region 18

Figure6:Reasonswhyhouseholdincomehasgonedown(%) 19

Figure7:Dailypercapitatotalexpenditureinkyatsanditscompositionin%:

bynational,urban/rural,state/regionandassetquintiles

22

Figure8:Householdcopingstrategiesbysocio-economicstatus(%) 24

Figure9:Householdcopingstrategiesbystate/region(%) 25

Figure10:Povertyheadcountanddepthovertimeatthenationalpovertyline(%) 27

Figure11:Vulnerabilitytopovertyatthenationalpovertyline(%) 28

Figure12:Povertyheadcountovertimebyagegroupatthenationalpovertyline(%) 31

Figure13:Change(2017-2023)inpovertyheadcountandpovertydepth

atthenationalpovertylineinrelationtoconflictvulnerability(%)

33

Maps

Map1:TheStatesandRegionsofMyanmar II

Map2:2023Povertyheadcountbystate/region 29

POVERTYANDTHEHOUSEHOLDECONOMYOFMYANMAR:ADISAPPEARINGMIDDLECLASS

3

Abbreviations

CATI

ComputerAssistedTelephoneInterviewing

CBM

CentralBankofMyanmar

EAO

EthnicArmedOrganization

ETP

Employment-to-population

FDI

ForeignDirectInvestment

GDP

GrossDomesticProduct

HWS

HouseholdWelfareSurvey

IFPRI

InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute

ILO

InternationalLabourOrganization

MFI

MicrofinanceInstitutions

MLCS

MyanmarLivingConditionSurvey

MMK

MyanmarKyat

MSMEs

Micro,small,andmediumenterprises

MSR

MyanmarSurveyResearch

FPCA

Principalcomponentanalysis

PDFs

PeoplesDefenceForces

PPS

People’sPulseSurvey

SMEB

SurvivalMinimumExpenditureBasket

UNDP

UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme

VCI

VulnerabilitytoConflictIndex

POVERTYANDTHEHOUSEHOLDECONOMYOFMYANMAR:ADISAPPEARINGMIDDLECLASS

4

Executive

Summary

T

hecontractionofhouseholdincomessincetheonsetofthepandemicandthepoliticalcrisisshowsnosignofrecovery.RespondentsofthePeople’sPulseSurvey2023(PPS),conductedbetweenJuneand

October2023bytheUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP),wereaskedhowtheirhouseholdincomehadchangedsinceJanuary2023;57percentreportedthattheirincomehadremainedthesame,while30percentreportedadecline.Ratherthansignallingapotentialrecovery,however,themoreplausibleexplanationisthatincomeshavenearlyhitthebottom.Inaddition,despitestableincomes,theprevailingeconomicconditionssuggestthatmaintainingthestatusquoisbecomingmoredifficult.Increasingmoneysupply,depreciationofthekyat,andglobalcommoditypricerisesareallcontributingtotherapidlyrisinginflation,erodingrealincomes.

POVERTYANDTHEHOUSEHOLDECONOMYOFMYANMAR:ADISAPPEARINGMIDDLECLASS

5

ThemiddleclassinMyanmarisdisappearing.Throughoutthenation,medianincomewasextremelylow,closetotheSurvivalMinimumExpenditureBasket(SMEB)1.Onlythemedianofthehighestassetquintile(Q5)reportedahigherincomepercapita(116,667MMK2permonth),albeitwellbelowwhatwouldberequiredforamiddle-classstandardofliving.3Medianincomevariessignificantlyacrossthestatesandregions.

Thedatasuggestsanexceptionallyweaklabourmarketwithpersistentwagestagnation,reducedincomefromjoblossescompoundedwithapproximatelyhalfofallhouseholdslackingasecondaryincomesource.Householdswithoutsecondincomesarevulnerabletoincomeinstabilityifanyshockshittheironlysourceofincome.Thestates/regionswithhighestratesofhouseholdslackingasecondaryincomewereKayah(67percent),Chin(63percent)andSagaing(57percent),whichalsohavethelowestincomepercapitaandexperiencedpersistentlyhighconflictthroughout2023.Monthlyincomepercapitawasnotsurprisinglyfoundtobenotablylowerinconflict-proneareas.

Thedeclineinincomesandlimitedincome-generatingcapacityarepushinghouseholdstoadoptnegativecopingmechanisms.Foreverystateandregion4andforeveryassetquintile,cuttingnon-foodexpenditurewastheprimarycopingstrategy.Theresultingcrowdingoutofhumancapitalinvestmentinhealthandeducationthreatenstounderminethefuturere-emergenceofamiddleclass.

ThePPSpaintsaparticularlyworryingeconomicpictureofKayahState,whichhasthelowestincomepercapita,steepestincomereduction(50percentsinceJanuary2023),andlargestreportedjoblosses(58percent).Kayahalsohadthehighestconcentrationofhouseholdswithoutsecondaryincome(67percent)andthewidestarrayofcopingmechanisms(onaverage3),includingdirestrategiessuchascuttingfoodexpenditure(52percent).Despitealsograpplingwithsignificanthouseholdpressures,themorepeacefulstatesandregionsexhibitrelativelybetterperformance,asevidencedbydatafromAyeyarwady,Naypyidaw,andYangon.

NearlyhalfofMyanmar’spopulation(49.7percent)waslivingbelowthenationalpovertylineof1590Kyatsadaybytheendof2023.Thiscomparesto46.3percentin2022and24.8percentin2017.Thus,overthelastsixyears,theshareofMyanmar’spopulationlivinginpovertyhasdoubled.

Moreover,notonlyaretheremorepoorpeopletoday,buttheyarealsomoredeeplypoor.Thepovertygap-ameasureoftheaverageincomeshortfallofallthosewhoarepoor–standsat24.4percent.Thiscomparesto18.5percentin2022and5.2percentin2017,anincreaseofover6percentagepointssince2022.Povertyisdeepeningfaster.

1

2

3

4

TheSMEBforMyanmarwas320,000kyatspermonthforahouseholdwithfivemembers,or,64,000kyatsperindividual,prescribedby

theInter-agencyCashWorkingGroupinthecountryasofDecember2023.TheSMEBisupdatedeverysixmonthsandvariesbystate/

region.

ApproximatelyUSD55permonth,or,USD1.85aday,onthebasisoftheofficialexchangerateof2,100kyatstothedollar.

TheBostonConsultingGroupdefinesthemiddleandaffluentclassasthosewithamonthlypercapitaincomeofmorethanUSD120.

ergroup.asia/blog/the-rising-middle-class-in-myanmar

Myanmarcomprisessevenstates(Chin,Kachin,Kayin(Karen),Kayah,Mon,Rakhine,andShan)andeightregions(Ayeyarwady,Bago,

Magway,Mandalay,Sagaing,Tanintharyi,YangonandNaypitaw).

POVERTYANDTHEHOUSEHOLDECONOMYOFMYANMAR:ADISAPPEARINGMIDDLECLASS

6

NearlyhalfofMyanmar’spopulation(49.7

percent)waslivingbelowthenationalpoverty

lineof1590Kyatsadaybytheendof2023.

Thiscomparesto46.3percentin2022and24.8percentin2017.Thus,overthelastsixyears,the

oanmar’spopulationlivinginpoverty99

Thesituationislikelytohavedeterioratedfurtherbythetimeofthisreport’srelease.Anadditional25percentofthepopulationwerehangingbyathreadasofOctober2023,justabovethepovertyline.Sincethattime,theintensifiedconflicthasledtomoredisplacedpeoplelosingtheirlivelihoods,businessesshuttingdown,andsupplychainsdisruptedinseveralpartsofthecountry.

Thecrisisdisproportionatelyaffectswomen-headedhouseholds,whosemembersare1.2timesmorelikelythanthoseinmale-headedonestobepoor.Over50percentofchildreninMyanmararepoor,andinhigh-conflictzoneshouseholdsarebeingpusheddeeperintopoverty,reflectingbothhardshipandinequality.

Thoughtheyhaveallbutdisappearedfromglobalheadlines,thepeopleofMyanmarcontinuetofacedeepandpersistentsuffering.ItiscrucialformultilateralandbilateraldevelopmentpartnerstorefocusattentionontheplightofthevulnerableinMyanmar.Thiscallsforclosecollaborationwithlocalorganizations,civilsocietyactors,thelocalprivatesector,andnon-governmentalorganizationstorespondeffectivelytothecomplexchallengesfacedbypeopleacrossallpartsofMyanmar.Rebuildinginthehardesthitlocationswillnotbeeasyinaperiodofongoingconflict,sonegotiatingwithallpartiestoallowforaccessandsupporttothemostvulnerablecommunities,irrespectiveoflocation,ethnicityorideology,willbecriticaltohaltthebackslideandreinstateareturntohumandevelopmentprogress,howeverlimitedatthistime.Intheabsenceofthis,thehumanitariancaseloadwillincreaseexponentiallyandtheimpactonhumandevelopmentwillbeinter-generational.

POVERTYANDTHEHOUSEHOLDECONOMYOFMYANMAR:ADISAPPEARINGMIDDLECLASS

7

Introduction:

ThePeople’sPulseSurvey2023

T

hisreportisoneofasetofanalyticalreportsproducedbyUNDPusingthedatacollectedinthe2023People’sPulseSurvey(PPS).Thesurveysoughttoprovideathoroughassessmentofpublicperceptionsacrossa

spectrumofissuesandsectors.Theseincludedcriticalaspectssuchassecurity,economicconditions,publicservicedelivery,governance,mediaaccessibility,theroleofwomen,andmigration.Theobjectiveofthisreportistoprovideananalysisofthe“householdeconomy”moduleofthesurvey,basedonwhichthepovertyheadcountanddepthwerealsoestimatedusingmicrosimulation.

POVERTYANDTHEHOUSEHOLDECONOMYOFMYANMAR:ADISAPPEARINGMIDDLECLASS

8

ThePPStrackedtheoutlookandperceptionsofvariouspopulationsegmentsinMyanmarwithamixofqualitativeandquantitativeindicatorsaimedatconstructinganevidence-basedunderstandingofthecurrentsocialandeconomicdynamicswithinthecountry.Itishopedthatthisinformationwillassistinimprovingservicesanddevelopingrelevantandfeasibleinterventionstoreducehardship.Asthedatawascollectedonthehouseholdandnottheindividuallevel,itisnotpossibletoinferdifferencesbetweenwomenandmeninthesample.However,thedatahasbeendisaggregatedbymale-vsfemale-headedhouseholds.

DataandMethodology

ThePPSisasampleof12,684households.ThesurveywasconductedusingComputerAssistedTelephoneInterviewing(CATI)andwascarriedoutoverthreeandahalfmonths,fromtheJune15toOctober1,2023.ThesurveycoveredeverystateandregionwithinMyanmar,ensuringacompleterepresentationofperspectivesandsentimentsacrossthenation.Thesamplequestionswerecarefullydesignedtoensurerobustness,allowingforindividualanalysisofeachstate/region,therebyfosteringmeaningfulcomparisons.Incraftingthesampleforeachstate/region,theaimwastoobtainstatisticallyreliabledata,characterizedbya99percentconfidenceintervalandamarginoferrorofplusorminus4percentagepoints.Asubsequentstepinvolveddistributingthesampleforeachstate/regionbetweenurbanandruralareas.

ItmaybenotedthatthelastrigorousbudgetsurveyavailableinMyanmaristheMyanmarLivingStandardSurvey(MLCS)2017.AlthoughPPSwasadministeredviatelephoneduetoprevailingconstraints,itssizeandscopecomeclosertoMLCS2017thananyothersurveyssincethatdate.Nevertheless,thePPSisnotafull-scalebudgetsurvey,whichwouldrequireanevenmoreelaboratesetofquestionsandin-persondatacollection.

Table1providesasummaryofthemaincharacteristicsoftherespondents.Thetableincludestheurban/ruraldivide,thestate/regionoftherespondents,gender,maritalstatus,educationstatus,andage.

Householdsweresubsequentlyclassifiedbyassetquintiles.Anassetindexservesasacommonlyemployedmethodforcategorizinghouseholdsintowealth/prosperityquintiles.Theassetapproachoffersamoreresilientandenduringcategorization,particularlyinMyanmar,whereincomeandexpenditureexhibithighvolatilityduetovariousshocks.Theassetindexiscalculatedbyapplyingtheprincipalcomponentanalysis(PCA)todurableassets/itemssuchashousingquality,appliances,vehicles,landownership,etc.

Theresultingassetquintiles(Q1-Q5)demonstratearobustcorrelationwithincomeandexpenditurepatterns,highlightingthathouseholdspositionedatthelowerendoftheassetindex(Q1)tendtohavethelowestincomeandexpenditurelevels.Thiscorrelationunderscoresthereliabilityandeffectivenessoftheassetindexasatoolforcapturingthedisparitiesineconomicwell-beingwithinapopulation.Aswouldbecomeclearerinthesubsequentanalyses,mappingseveralofthesurveyindicatorstoassetquintilesoffersmoremeaningfulinferencesthansimpleincomeorconsumptionquintiles.

POVERTYANDTHEHOUSEHOLDECONOMYOFMYANMAR:ADISAPPEARINGMIDDLECLASS

9

Table1:

Summaryofrespondents’information

Sample

%

National

12,684

100.0%

Urban/Rural

Urban

4,556

35.9%

Rural

8,128

64.1%

State/Region

Kachin

924

7.3%

Kayah

410

3.2%

Kayin

521

4.1%

Chin

407

3.2%

Sagaing

935

7.4%

Tanintharyi

612

4.8%

Bago

1,102

8.7%

Magway

1,026

8.1%

Mandalay

1,149

9.1%

Mon

674

5.3%

Rakhine

907

7.2%

Yangon

1,207

9.5%

Shan

889

7.0%

Ayeyarwady

1,161

9.2%

Naypyitaw

760

6.0%

Gender

Male

6,298

49.7%

Female

6,372

50.3%

Maritalstatus

Single

4,315

34.0%

Married

7,742

61.0%

Other

627

4.9%

Educationstatus

Noformaleducation

340

2.7%

Belowprimaryeducation

2,580

20.3%

Completedprimaryschool

3,271

25.8%

Completedmiddleschool

4,492

35.4%

Completedhighschool

142

1.1%

Completedhighereducation

1859

14.7%

Agegroup

18-20years

1,119

8.8%

21-30years

4,165

32.8%

31-40years

3,233

25.5%

41-50years

2,304

18.2%

51-60years

1,358

10.7%

60+years

505

4.0%

Householdtype

Male-headedhouseholds

6,893

88.4%

Female-headedhouseholds

905

11.6%

POVERTYANDTHEHOUSEHOLDECONOMYOFMYANMAR:ADISAPPEARINGMIDDLECLASS

10

TheStatusofthe

HouseholdEconomy

1.

Sustainedeconomichardship

Myanmarhasexperiencednonoteworthyeconomicreboundfromitscontractiontominus17.9percentinrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)in20215duetothepandemicandthepoliticalcrisis.ThisplacesthecountryfirmlyintheL-shaped6recessioncategory,byfartheworstrecessionpath.NominalGDPin2022hoveredaroundthe2013level.

Theeconomyhassufferedapermanentlossinoutputandisexpectedtogrowatapersistentlylowerratethanpriortothecrisis.TheWorldBankDecember2023MyanmarEconomicMonitorstatesthat“GDPisprojectedtogrowbyjust1percentinthefiscalyearendingMarch2024.Evenassumingnofurtherescalationinconflict,growthisexpectedtoremainsubduedthefollowingyear.”7TheIMFprovidedasomewhathigherestimateof2.6percentgrowthin2024.

5

6

7

“WorldEconomicOutlook,October2023:NavigatingGlobalDivergences”,IMF,October2023.

AnL-shapedrecessionoccurswhenaneconomyhasasevererecessionanddoesnotreturntotrendlinegrowthformanyyears,ifever.Thesteepdecline,followedbyaflatlinemakestheshapeofanL.Thisisthemostseveretypeofrecession.

Edwards,KimAlan;Mansaray,Kemoh;Myint,ThiDa;Hayati,Fayavar;Maw,AkaKyawMin.

MyanmarEconomicMonitor:ChallengesAmidConflict(English).Washington,D.C.:WorldBankGroup./curated/en/099121123082084971/P5006631739fd70a01a66c1e15bf7b34917

POVERTYANDTHEHOUSEHOLDECONOMYOFMYANMAR:ADISAPPEARINGMIDDLECLASS

Despitethemajorityreportingstableincomes,prevailing

economicconditionssuggestthatmaintainingthestatus

quoataverylowincomelevelisbecomingmoredifficult.

Increaseinmoneysupply,

depreciationofthekyat,andglobalcommoditypricerises,

risinginflation.99

haveallcontributedtorapidly

11

Theeconomicturmoilsince2021hasinflictedenduringstructuraldamageontheeconomy'ssupplyside.8

.CapitalprovidedbyinternationallendershasbeenconstrainedduetoforeignexchangerestrictionsimposedbytheCentralBankofMyanmar(CBM),coupledwiththerisksassociatedwithcurrencyfluctuations.9Concurrently,domesticbankshavelimitedcapacityandinclinationtoexpandlending.

.Thelaboursectorhaswitnessedasignificantshift,withunemployedindividualsdisengagingfromthelabourmarketandoptingformigration.AsofApril2023,oftheestimated2.5millionmigrantsresidinginThailand,75percentarefromMyanmar.10

.AccordingtoanILOreportonMyanmar,therehasbeenasignificantdecreaseintheemployment-to-populationrate(ETP),withadeclineofover7percentagepointscomparedtothepre-crisisperiod.Thereportalsohighlightsthatthereductionintheemploymentratewasmorepronouncedinregionsandstatespronetoconflict,andthatthedecreaseinthefemaleemploymentratewastwicethatformen.11

.Anenvironmentofpoliticaluncertaintycompoundedbyeconomicconcernsinhibitsinnovationandinvestment,notablybusinessdevelopmentandforeigndirectinvestment(FDI).Sincethemilitarytakeover,MyanmarhasexperiencedasharpdropinFDIcommitments,whichfailedtoreachUSD2billionin2021(comparedtoUSD2.2billionin2020,downfromahighofnearlyUSD5billionin2017).Despiteapartialrecoveryin2022-23,averageannualFDIcommitmentsinthecurrentperiodhavedroppedtowellbelowthelevelsseenduringthepreviousmilitaryrule.12

TheL-shapedrecessionandthelastingstructural

damagetotheeconomyhavedeeplyimpacted

households,asreflectedinthePPSdata.As

furtherdiscussedinSection5ofthispaper,

povertyhasincreased.Halfthepopulationof

Myanmarislivingbelowthenationalpovertyline

in2023,andthepovertygapisincreasingata

fasterratethanthepovertyheadcount.

ThePPSdatashowsacontinuedcontraction

ofhouseholdincomessincetheonsetofthe

COVID-19pandemicandthemilitarytakeover

(seeFigure1).Respondentswereaskedhow

theirhouseholdincomehadchangedbetween

January2023andtheperiodoftheinterview,

whichspannedSeptemberandOctober

2023(AppendixTable3).About30percent

8

9

10

11

12

13

InternationalMonetaryFund,WorldEconomicOutlookDatabase,October2023

Edwards,KimAlan;Mansaray,Kemoh;Myint,ThiDa;Hayati,Fayavar;Maw,AkaKyawMin.

MyanmarEconomicMonitor:AFragileRecovery-SpecialFocusonEmployment,IncomesandCopingMechanisms

(English).Washington,D.C.:WorldBankGroup.

/curated/en/099062823041522943/

P1791060533bdb01b0ae0a0c82f34c1c320

MigrantWorkingGroup(MWG).CoalitionfortheRightsofRefugeesandStatelessPersons(CRSP),andBurmaConcernForum,The

SituationofMigrantWorkersandRefugeesinThailand:PolicyRecommendationsandReformofConcernedLaws,June8,2023.

ILOBriefJuly2023wcms_888644.pdf()

Foreigninvestmentbycountry|DirectorateofInvestmentandCompanyAdministration(.mm)

Myanmar_Survival_Minimum_Expenditure_Basket_SMEB_Technical_Note_CWG_Jun2023.docx

POVERTYANDTHEHOUSEHOLDECONOMYOFMYANMAR:ADISAPPEARINGMIDDLECLASS

80

60

40

20

0

12

reportedtheirincomehaddropped;13percentreportedthatithadincreased;andthemajorityreportedthattheirincomehadremainedthesame(57percent).Ratherthansignallingapotentialrecovery,however,themoreplausibleexplanationisthatincomeshavehitthebottom,confirmingtheL-shapedrecession,asevidencedbyincomepercapitafigureshoveringaroundtheSurvivalMinimumExpenditureBasket(SMEB)amount.13

Despitethemajorityreportingstableincomes,prevailingeconomicconditionssuggestthatmaintainingthestatusquoataverylowincomelevelisbecomingmoredifficult.Increaseinmoneysupply,depreciationofthekyat,andglobalcommoditypricerises,haveallcontributedtorapidlyrisinginflation.Thepriceofrice,whichaccountsfor51and62percent,respectively,ofurbanandruralcaloriesconsumed,14increasedby45percentin2022.15Withinthiscontext,the57percentwhohavemaintainedastablehouseholdincomewouldbefeelingsignificantlypoorerinrealterms.

KayahStatereportedthehighestpercentageofhouseholds(50percent)withadeclineinincome(Kayahalsorecordedthelowestincomepercapitaandthehighestconcentrationofhouseholdswithoutsecondaryincome).OtherareasreportinglargedeclineswereSagaing(40percent),Tanintharyi(37percent),andRakhine(36percent).

Figure1:

Nominalincomechangesoversurveys(%)

HVS,Oct2020

PP,June2021WomenSurvey,Dec2021PP,Oct2023

GoneupGonedownThesame

Source:UNDP

Note:HVS,Oct2020–HouseholdVulnerabilitySurvey(September–October2020)16;PP,June2021–PeoplePulseSurvey(May–June2021)17;WomenSurvey,Dec2021–RegressinggenderequalityinMyanmar(November–December2021)18;PP,Oct2023–PeoplePulseSurvey(September–October2023)

13

Myanmar_Survival_Minimum_Expenditure_Basket_SMEB_Technical_Note_CWG_Jun2023.docx

14

RiceProductivityinMyanmar:Assessmentofthe2023DrySeason()

15

SoaringFoodandFuelCostsThreatenMillionsinMyanmar()

16

/myanmar/publications/household-vulnerability-survey-2020

17

/analytical

_product/myanmar_peoples_pulse/

18

/analytical

_product/regressing-gender-equality-in-myanmar/

POVERTYANDTHEHOUSEHOLDECONOMYOFMYANMAR:ADISAPPEARINGMIDDLECLASS

13

AcomparabledatasourceonrecentincomechangeisfromtheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute’s(IFPRI)HouseholdWelfareSurvey(HWS)Round5,19conductedbetweenMarchandJune2023,justbeforeUNDP’sPPS.OneimportantdistinctionisthattheIFPRIquestioncomparingincomechangereferredtoalongerperiod,i.e.,overthepast12monthsfromthemomentofthesurvey(hencelookingbacktomid-2022),whilethePPShadashorterrecallperiod(afewmonths).ThismayexplainwhythePPShadalargerpercentagerespondingthathouseholdincomehadremainedthesame.Irrespectiveofthisdifference,itisinterestingtonotesimilarpatternsintheareasreportingdeclineandincreases.Forinstance,IFPRIreportedKayahStateashavingthedeepestdecline,withRakhineandSagainginthetopfour,asalsoseeninthePPSresults.

Thereis,however,ananomalybetweenthetwodatasetswithrespecttoChinState.TheIFPRIdatashowsamuchlargerdeclinethanthePPSforChinStateincomparisontotheotherstatesandregions(seeFigure2).Whilebothdatasetsarerepresentativeatthestate/regionlevel,thereweresignificantdifferencesatthetownshipleveldatacollectionwhichcouldexplainthisdiscrepancy.IFPRI’sdatawasconcentratedintownshipssuchasFalam,Hakha,andTedim,whileinthePPS,themorepeacefulTonzangtownshiphadthemostrespondents.20Bothdatasetsclearlyconveythatmorepeacefulareasexperiencelessseveredeclinesinincome,withNaypyitaw,Yangon,Ayeyarwady,andShanrecordingthelowestdeclines.WiththeseverelychangedconflictdynamicsinNorthernShanStatesubsequenttothesedatacollections,onecanexpecttoseeasignificantworseninginincomeandrelatedimplicationsinanyupcomingsurveys.

AsthePPSsurveyisconductedatthehouseholdlevelratherthantheindividuallevel,deducingvariationsinincomechangesbetweenwomenandmenisnotpossible.Nevertheless,itispossibletoinvestigatedifferencesbetweenfemale-vsmale-headedhouseholds.