2024年網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全展望

Incollaboration

withAccenture

GlobalCybersecurityOutlook2024

INSIGHTREPORT

JANUARY2024

Images:GettyImages,MidJourney

Contents

Foreword3

Executivesummary4

1

Understandingglobalcyberinequity8

1.1Thestateofcyberinequity9

1.2Coredriversofcyberinequity11

2

Aworldingeopoliticalandtechnologicaltransition12

2.1Geopoliticaltensionsandcyber13

2.2Newtechnology,samefear14

3

Inthethickofthecyber-skillsshortage17

3.1Theskillsgap18

4

Cyberresilienceforanewera20

4.1Marryinglegacyconcernswithnewrisks21

4.2Emergingtechnologiesandthestateofresilience24

4.3Cybercrimeandthestateofresilience24

4.4Businessleadershipandthestateofresilience25

4.5Governanceandthestateofresilience27

4.6Ecosystemresilience28

5

Buildingabettercyberecosystem30

5.1Arecybercollaborationsstallingorcontinuingtomature?31

5.2Effectiveregulationliftsallboats31

5.3Theroleofinsurance32

5.4Understandingcyberresilienceinthesupplychain33

Conclusion34

Appendix:Methodology35

Contributors36

Endnotes38

Disclaimer

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?2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrights

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GlobalCybersecurityOutlook20242

January2024

GlobalCybersecurityOutlook2024

Foreword

JeremyJurgens

ManagingDirector,World

EconomicForum,Switzerland

Intheever-evolvinglandscapeofcybersecurity,thisyear’sGlobalCybersecurityOutlookprovidescrucialinsightsintothemultifacetedchallengesfacingleadersacrosstheglobe.Geopolitical

instability,rapidlyadvancingtechnologiesandanincreasinggapinorganizationalcybercapabilitiesreinforcetheneedtobuildresilienceandenablesystemicglobalcollaboration.

Buildingontheprioritiesoutlinedinlastyear’s

report,theWorldEconomicForum’sCentrefor

Cybersecurityremainscommittedtobridgingthe

gapsbetweenthepublicandprivatesectorsand

betweencyberandbusinessleaders.Thereport

servesasaninstrumenttodistilcyber-riskissuesintoachievableinsightstailoredtotoday’sexecutives.

Whilethereisanotablesenseofoptimism

stemmingfromincreasedexecutive-levelawarenessofthecybersecurityecosystemanditsrisks,the

reportalsounderscoresagrowingcyberdivide.

PaoloDalCin

GlobalLead,AccentureSecurity,Italy

Organizationsdemonstratingcyberresilience

areincreasinglydistinctfromthosegrappling

withcybersecuritychallenges.Thedialogue

betweencyberandbusinessexecutiveshas

shownimprovement,yetsignificantdisparities

persistamongindustries,countriesandsectors,demandingcontinuedattentionandcollaboration.

Lookingaheadtothechallengesof2024,thereportilluminatesmajorfindingsandputsaspotlight

onthewideningcyberinequityandtheprofound

impactofemergingtechnologies.Thepathforwarddemandsstrategicthinking,concertedactionandasteadfastcommitmenttocyberresilience.

Thisreportinvitesleadersnotonlytorecognizethehurdlesbutalsotoactivelyembracethe

opportunitiesforpositivechange.Itisacallfor

collectiveeffortandinnovation,urgingleadersto

workcollaborativelytowardsamoresecure,resilientandtrustworthydigitalfuture.

GlobalCybersecurityOutlook20243

Executivesummary

Loomingcyberinequityamidarapidlyevolvingtechlandscapeemphasizestheneedforevengreaterpublic-privatecooperation.

In2023theworldfacedapolarizedgeopolitical

order,multiplearmedconflicts,bothscepticismandfervourabouttheimplicationsoffuturetechnologies,andglobaleconomicuncertainty.Amidthiscomplexlandscape,thecybersecurityeconomy1grew

exponentiallyfasterthantheoverallglobaleconomy,andoutpacedgrowthinthetechsector.2However,manyorganizationsandcountriesexperiencedthatgrowthinexceptionallydifferentways.

Astarkdividebetweencyber-resilientorganizationsandthosethatarestrugglinghasemerged.This

cleardivergenceincyberequityisexacerbated

bythecontoursofthethreatlandscape,

macroeconomictrends,industryregulationandearlyadoptionofparadigm-shiftingtechnologybysomeorganizations.Otherclearbarriers,includingthe

risingcostofaccesstoinnovativecyberservices,tools,skillsandexpertise,continuetoinfluence

theabilityoftheglobalecosystemtobuildamoresecurecyberspaceinthefaceofmyriadtransitions.

Thesefactorsarealsoever-presentinthe

accelerateddisappearanceofahealthy“middle

grouping”oforganizations(i.e.thosethatmaintainminimumstandardsofcyberresilienceonly).Despitethisdivide,manyorganizationsindicateclear

progressincertainaspectsoftheircybercapability.Thisyear’soutlookalsofindscauseforoptimism,

especiallywhenconsideringtherelationshipbetweencyberandbusinessexecutives.

Thesearethemajorfindingsfromthisyear’sGlobalCybersecurityOutlookandthekeycybertrends

thatexecutiveswillneedtonavigatein2024:

Thereisgrowingcyberinequitybetweenorganizationsthatarecyberresilientandthosethatarenot.

Inparallel,thepopulationoforganizationsthat

maintainaminimumlevelofcyberresilienceis

disappearing.Smallandmediumenterprises

(SMEs),3despitemakingupthemajorityofmanycountry’secosystems,arebeingdisproportionatelyaffectedbythisdisparity.

–Thenumberoforganizationsthatmaintain

minimumviablecyberresilienceisdown30%.Whilelargeorganizationsdemonstrated

remarkablegainsincyberresilience,SMEsshowedasignificantdecline.

–MorethantwiceasmanySMEsasthelargestorganizationssaytheylackthecyberresiliencetomeettheircriticaloperationalrequirements.

–90%ofthe120executivessurveyedatthe

WorldEconomicForum’sAnnualMeetingon

Cybersecuritysaidthaturgentactionisrequiredtoaddressthisgrowingcyberinequity.

Emergingtechnologywillexacerbatelong-standingchallengesrelatedtocyberresilience.

Thiswillinturnacceleratethedividebetweenthemostcapableandtheleastcapableorganizations.

–Asorganizationsracetoadoptnewtechnologies,suchasgenerativeartificialintelligence(AI),a

basicunderstandingisneededoftheimmediate,mid-termandlong-termimplicationsofthese

technologiesfortheircyber-resilienceposture.

–Fewerthanonein10respondentsbelievethatinthenexttwoyearsgenerativeAIwillgivetheadvantagetodefendersoverattackers.

–Approximatelyhalfofexecutivessaythat

advancesinadversarialcapabilities(phishing,malware,deepfakes)presentthemost

concerningimpactofgenerativeAIoncyber.

Thecyber-skillsandtalentshortagecontinuestowidenatanalarmingrate.

–Halfofthesmallestorganizationsbyrevenuesaytheyeitherdonothaveorareunsureastowhethertheyhavetheskillstheyneedtomeettheircyberobjectives.

–Only15%ofallorganizationsareoptimistic

thatcyberskillsandeducationwillsignificantlyimproveinthenexttwoyears.

–52%ofpublicorganizationsstatethatalackofresourcesandskillsistheirbiggestchallengewhendesigningforcyberresilience.

GlobalCybersecurityOutlook20244

Alignmentbetweencyberandbusinessisbecomingmorecommon.

Organizations(includingbothbusinessandcyberleaders)4mustcontinuetoinvestinandmaintainanawarenessofessentialsecurityfundamentals.

–29%oforganizationsreportedthattheyhadbeenmateriallyaffectedbyacyberincidentinthepast12months.

–Thelargestorganizationssaythatthehighestbarriertocyberresilienceistransforminglegacytechnologyandprocesses.

–Thereisaclearlinkbetweencyberresilience

andCEOengagement.Thisyear,93%of

respondentsthatconsidertheirorganizationstobeleadersandinnovatorsincyberresiliencetrusttheirCEOtospeakexternallyabouttheircyberrisk.Oforganizationsthatarenotcyberresilient,only23%trusttheirCEO’sabilityto

speakabouttheircyberrisk.

Cyberecosystemriskis

becomingmoreproblematic.

Foranyorganization,thepartnersinitsecosystemareboththegreatestassetandthebiggest

hindrancetoasecure,resilientandtrustworthydigitalfuture.

–41%oftheorganizationsthatsufferedamaterialincidentinthepast12monthssayitwas

causedbyathirdparty.

–54%oforganizationshaveaninsufficient

understandingofcybervulnerabilitiesintheir

supplychain.Even64%ofexecutiveswho

believethattheirorganization’scyberresiliencemeetsitsminimumrequirementstooperatesaytheystillhaveaninadequateunderstandingoftheirsupply-chaincybervulnerabilities.

–60%ofexecutivesagreethatcyberandprivacyregulationseffectivelyreduceriskintheir

organization’secosystem–up21%since2022.

GlobalCybersecurityOutlook20245

FIGURE1GlobalCybersecurityOutlook2024:keyfindings

90%ofcyberleaderswhoattendedtheAnnualMeetingonCybersecuritybelievethatinequitywithinthecybersecurity

ecosystemrequiresurgentaction.

ThereisgrowingcyberinequitybetweenorganizationsthatarecyberresilientandthosethatarenotWhatisthestateofyourorganization’scyberresiliencethisyear?

Morelow-revenue

51

%

37

%

29

%

5

%

13

%

20222024

.Ourcyberresiliencemeetsminimumrequirements

Morehigh-revenue

organizationsarematuring

intoleadersincyberresilience

.Ourcyberresilienceexceedsourrequirements

14%67%19%

25%36%39%

21%51%28%

90%

organizationsarelosingresiliencythangainingit

.Ourcyberresilienceisinsuf?cient

26%

15%

2024

2022

2024

2022

2023

30%

40%

50%

20%

60%

10%

%

18

0

Emergingtechnologieswillexacerbatelong-standingchallengesrelatedtocyberresilience

Inthenexttwoyears,willgenerative

AIprovideoverallcyberadvantage

toattackersordefenders?

55.9%

toattackers

35.1%

remainbalanced

8.9%

todefenders

Advanceofadversarial

capabilities–phishing,

malwaredevelopment,

deepfakes

46%

Dataleaks–exposureof

personallyidenti?able

informationthrough

generativeAI

20%

Increasedcomplexityof

securitygovernance

9%

Technicalsecurityofthe

AIsystemsthemselves

8%

Softwaresupply-chainandcodedevelopmentrisk–potentialbackdoors

8%

Legalconcernsofintellectualpropertyandliability

8%

WhatareyoumostconcernedaboutinregardstogenerativeAI’simpactoncyber?

GlobalCybersecurityOutlook20246

FIGURE2GlobalCybersecurityOutlook2024:keyfindings

93%ofleadersoforganizationsexcellingincyberresiliencetrusttheirCEOto

speakexternallyabouttheircyberrisk.

CyberregulationsareperceivedtobeaneffectivemethodofreducingcyberrisksDoyoubelievecyberandprivacyregulationseffectivelyreducecyberrisks?

.

2022

.Agree

.Disagree

93%

18.8%

604%

39.2%

24.1%

2024

40%

20%

60%

0

Thecyberskillsandtalentshortagecontinuestowidenatanalarmingrate

Doesyourorganizationhavetheskillsneededtorespondto

andrecoverfromacyberattack?

94.

7%

88.

3%

82.

1%

49.

2%

2022

.Low-revenueorganizations.Medium-andhigh-revenueorganizations

Areresourcesorskillsgapsthebiggestchallengeforyour

organizationwhendesigningforcyberresilience?

Medium-revenueorganizations

High-revenueorganizations

Low-revenueorganizations

Public

organizations

40%50%

38%

35%

22%

52%

30%

20%

60%

10%

100%

2024

2023

0%

◆

40%

90%

50%

80%

60%

70%

Foranyorganization,thepartnersinitsecosystemareboththegreatestassetandthebiggest

hindrancetoasecure,resilientandtrustworthydigitalfuture

Doyouhavevisibilityofyourthird-partyrisk?

29%

.Havevisibility.Lackvisibility

22%

Ourcyberresiliencemeets

minimumrequirements

Ourcyberresilienceisinsuf?cient

Ourcyberresilience

exceedsourrequirements

36%

64%

78%

71%

GlobalCybersecurityOutlook20247

1

Understandingglobalcyberinequity

Asystemicsolutionisneededtoaddresstheinequityincyber-resiliencecapacityacrossorganizationsandcountries.

GlobalCybersecurityOutlook20248

1.1

FIGURE3

Thestateofcyberinequity

In2022,thecybersecurityeconomy5grew

twiceasfastastheworldeconomy.6In2023,it

grewfourtimesfaster.Althoughorganizational

investmentincyberresilienceoverallisontherise,rapidinnovationandgrowthoftenleadtounevendevelopment.

Thisunevennesscreatesmajoreconomicand

socialbenefitsforsome;generally,thelargestandmostdevelopedeconomiesreaptherewardsof

newtechnologies,whilelessdevelopednations,

sectorsandcommunitiescontinuetofallbehind.

Inthiscase,rapidtechnologicalgrowth,although

benefitingmanyintermsofaccess,innovationandevencollaboration,isalsocreatingsystemicinequityintheglobalcybersecurityeconomyandbeliesa

pronounceddisparitybetweenthecyber-resiliencecapabilityoforganizationsthatmakeupitsmarkets.

The2024GlobalCybersecurityOutlook(GCO)findsthatorganizationsthatmaintainminimumviable

cyberresilience–thatis,ahealthymiddlegroupingoforganizations–aredisappearing.Organizationsreportingsuchaminimumviablecyberresilience

aredown31%since2022.Thedistancebetweenorganizationsthatarecyberresilientenoughto

thriveandthosethatarefightingtosurviveis

wideningatanalarmingrate.Asaresult,theleastcapableorganizationsareperpetuallyunableto

keepupwiththecurve,fallingfurtherbehindandthreateningtheintegrityoftheentireecosystem.

Thecostofaccessingadequatecyberservices,

toolsandtalent,andtheearlyadoptionofcutting-edgetechnologybythelargestorganizationsintheecosystemaretwocorefactorsdrivingthedivide.

Afewstatisticsfurtherillustratethetrendtowardsimbalance.Thesmallestorganizationsaremorethantwiceaslikelyasthelargesttosaythey

lackthecyberresiliencetheyneedtomeettheirminimumcriticaloperationalrequirements.7Attheotherendofthespectrum,thehighest-revenueorganizationsare22%moreconfidentthanthe

smallestorganizationsthattheircyberresilience

exceedstheiroperationalneeds.Andyetthe

smallest-revenueorganizationsarealsoatroublingthreetimesmorelikelytolackthecyberskillstheyneedtomeettheircyber-resilienceobjectives.

Thisphenomenonisparticularlyalarminginlightoftheinterconnectednatureofthecyberecosystem.Oneofthecoremeasurementsofcyberresilience

isanunderstandingofyourecosystem,inclusiveofassessmentsofsupply-chainandthird-partyrisk.

Forthoselargeorganizationsreportingthattheyareleadersincyberresilience,theemergenceofthis

drasticdropincyberresilienceofsmallorganizationsshouldbeespeciallyalarming.Considera2023

reportfromSecurityScorecardandtheCyentia

Institute,

whichfoundthat“98%oforganizations

havearelationshipwithatleastonethirdpartythathasexperiencedabreachinthelasttwoyears”.8

Thistypeofentanglementshouldbereasonenoughforthosethataremostcyberresilienttoproactivelyhelporganizationsintheirecosystemtomove

towardsahealthiercyberposture.

Severalotherfactorsmayundulyinfluenceand

exacerbatethevulnerabilitiesofthoseSMEsin

thiswideningdisparity.Amongsmallorganizations–whichareoftenunabletopreventcritical

operationaldisruptionfromanincidentandcan

incurdisproportionatefinanciallosstorecover–

only25%carrycyberinsurance.That’sthreetimeslesslikelythanthelargestorganizationsbyrevenue,whichreporta75%cyber-insuranceadoptionrate.Theresultsarealsoconsistentfororganization

sizebyemployeecount.Themoreemployees

withinanorganization,thehighertheadoption

rateofcyberinsurance;85%oforganizations

withmorethan100,000employeescarrycyber

insurance,whileonly21%oforganizationswith250employeesorfewerhaveapolicy.Asthepricesofcyberinsurancecontinuetoriseexponentially,theexpectationisthatthisgapwillwideninparallel,

leavingsmallerorganizationswithevenfeweroptionstoreducetheirrisk.

Organizationsthatcarrycyberinsurancebynumberofemployees

0102030405060708090100

GlobalCybersecurityOutlook20249

100,000+

Employees

<250

Employees

21%

85%

Organizationsthatcarrycyberinsurancebyrevenue

FIGURE4

in

75%

25%

0102030405060708090100

>$5.5billionperyear

<$250millionperyear

Globally,disparityacrossgeographiesisalso

poormarketincentives,misalignedsocioculturalattitudestowardssecurity,orotherbarriers.”9

Thedisparitymaybeultra-visiblenow,butithas

beendevelopingforyears,andthecyber-resilienceinequitytrendhasbeensteadilyincreasingovertime.Amongthelowest-revenueorganizations,lackof

sufficientcyberresilienceisupatroubling32%since2022.Amongthehighest-revenueorganizations,

reporteddeficienciesincyberresiliencearesimilartothosereportedtwoyearsago.

Additionally,thenumberoforganizationswithlowerrevenuethatreportedtheircyberresilienceexceedstheiroperationalrequirementshasnotincreased

overthepasttwoyears.Conversely,amonglarge-revenueorganizations,cyberconfidencerose32%.

Althoughtherearegeneralizedeconomicnormsindicatingthatthisishealthycompetition,cyberleadersknowthatthedigitalecosystemisso

intertwinedandfragilethattocontinueonthistrajectoryismoreharmfulthanhealthy.

Whenaskedtocommentonthisdisappearing

middlegroupingoforganizations,RotemIram,

ChiefExecutiveOfficerofAt-Bay,neatlysummeditupinthisway:

reflectedintheanalysis.Perhapsunsurprisingly,

thisglobalcybergaptendstomirrorotherglobal

developmentindicators.Thelowestnumberof

self-reportedcyber-resilientorganizationsare

LatinAmericaandAfrica,whilethehighest

numbercomefromNorthAmericaandEurope.

Similarly,LatinAmericaandAfricareportedthe

highestnumberofinsufficientlycyber-resilient

organizations,whileNorthAmericaandEurope

reportedthelowestnumber.

Thisphenomenon,sometimescharacterizedas

the“cybersecuritypovertyline(CPL)”,generally

referstotheprohibitivecostofsecuringrobust

cybersecurityforanorganization’spersonnel,

technologyandsystems.Butthisdividegoesfar

beyondprohibitivecosts.Considerthecyber-

skillsgap,awell-documentedissueforeventhe

largestglobalorganizations.Otherfactors,suchas

knowledgeableleaders,theabilitytounderstand

shiftingbestpractices,andaccesstohighly

innovativetechnologies,alsodramaticallyaffect

anorganization’sabilitytostayaheadofthecurve.

AstheAtlanticCouncilputsit,“Cyberpoverty

exhibitsdynamicsverysimilartoreal-worldpoverty:

simplyprovidingmoneyorfreeexpertisedoesnot

necessarilyaddresspoortechnologicaldesigns,

Securitysolutionsarebecomingtoosophisticated,tothepoint

wheremanySMEsstruggletooperatethem,letaloneaffordthem.

GlobalCybersecurityOutlook202410

1.2

Coredriversofcyberinequity

Organizationsofallsizesandmaturitylevels

haveoftenstruggledtomaintaincentraltenetsof

organizationalcyberresilience.Historically,however,severalfactorsbegantostratifythecybercapabilityofbothpublic-andprivate-sectororganizations.

Someorganizationsprioritizedresilience,

incorporateditintocorporatecultureandinvestedaccordingly,whileothersdidnot.Somesectors

morestrictlyregulatedtheirmembers–forexample,outofconcernforhumansafetyornationalsecurity,tosafeguardpersonallyprotectedinformation,

ortoprotecttheglobalfinancialsystem.Other

organizationswereforcedtocontendwithamorehostilethreatlandscapeandsufferedasignificant,oftenpublicincident.

Overtime,differencesinorganizational,sectoralandcountry-specificcircumstances,aswellasvaried

responsestouniversalcyberchallenges,separatedthemarketintoclearleadersandstragglers.Addtotheequationthepaceoftherisingcostofaccesstoadequatecybersecuritycapabilityandwhatresults

isthecurrentstateofcyberinequitybetweensmallandlargeorganizations,betweenthepublicand

privatesectors,andamongorganizationsoperatingindifferenteconomiesaroundtheworld.

Thedigitaldivideinaccesstotheinternetprovides

ausefulparallel.ConsiderthecommentfromAngel

GonzalezSanz,HeadofScience,Technologyand

InnovationintheDivisiononTechnologyandLogisticsoftheUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeand

Development(UNCTAD),that,“although63%of

theworld’spopulationisconnectedtotheinternet;

leastdevelopedcountriesstillonlycount27%of

theirpopulationsasinternetusers”.10Thedigital

ecosystemissohighlyinterconnectedandinfluencedbygeopolitics,economicsandtherapidemergenceofnewtechnologythatnoentitycanaffordtobe

perpetuallytrappedunderthecapabilitycurve,leastofalltheorganizationsthatarealreadythemostatrisk.

AsAbhayRaman,SeniorVice-PresidentandChiefSecurityOfficeratSunLife,putit:

Affordabilityisacriticaldeterminantofcyber-resiliencesuccess.

Weshouldthereforedesignrisk-appropriate,affordableand

fit-for-usecyber-resiliencearchitecturesforlargemultinationals

andSMEsalike.

Therisksassociatedwithcontinuingto

exacerbatethistechnologicaldividebetweenorganizationsandnationsthatcanandcannotadequatelymitigatecybereventsposesbothathreattotheentireecosystemandoutsizedriskstothosethatarealreadyvulnerable.Theimbalanceinglobalinternetaccesspresentsaprescientexampleoftheconsequencesofsustaininganunequaldigitalecosystem.

Doingsorequiresasystemicsolution,with

participationfromeveryone–SMEs,multinationalcorporations(MNCs),non-governmental

organizations(NGOs)andgovernmental

organizations.Fortunately,cyberexecutives

agree:90%ofthe120executivessurveyedat

theWorldEconomicForum’sAnnualMeetingon

Cybersecuritysaidthaturgentactionisrequired

toaddressthisgrowingcyberinequity.Thereis

evidenceofanappetiteforsystemiccollaborationthatsupportsSMEs.Forexample,in2020,the

WorldEconomicForumbroughttogetherpartnersfromtelecommunicationcompanies,civilsociety

andcyberorganizationstopublishcybercrime

preventionprinciplesforinternetservicesproviders.

Thisisanexampleofsystemicallyimportantactorssuchasinternetserviceprovidersworkingtoprotecttheentireecosystem,includingsmallerplayers.11

GlobalCybersecurityOutlook202411

2

Aworldingeopoliticalandtechnological

transition

TherapidspreadofgenerativeAIand

othernewtechnologiesthatcaneasilybeusedbycyberattackersposesaseriousthreatbothforbusinessandinpubliclife.

GlobalCybersecurityOutlook202412

2.1

Geopoliticshasatleastmoderately

influenced

70%

oforganizations’

cybersecurity

strategies.

Geopoliticaltensionsand

Inthisyear’sGlobalCybersecurityOutlooksurvey,70%ofleadersstatedthatgeopoliticshasat

leastmoderatelyinfluencedtheirorganization’s

cybersecuritystrategy.Theinfluenceofgeopoliticshasremainedaspersistentlytopofmindasitwas

lastyear,with74%ofrespondentsfromthe2023

reportstatingthesame.Thisyear,32%of37CISOssurveyedseparatelysaidtheyareadjustingtheir

cybersecuritystrategybyincreasingtheuseof

threatintelligencereportsandfurtherdeveloping

theirincidentresponseplans.Increasinglyalarmingattacksagainstcriticalinfrastructure,andelementsinglobalsupplychains,coupledwitheconomic

instability,havethepotentialtocausemacro-impact.

Geopoliticsalsodire