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ecG
HowtoProfitinTomorrow’s
AutomotiveandMobilityIndustry
ByMarkusHagenmaier,JulienBert,AugustinK.Wegscheider,ThomasPalme,
RaphaelKirn,andLuisSchaber
Isthetraditionalbusinessmodelintheautomotiveindustry—centered
aroundsellingcombustion-enginevehiclesthroughfranchisedealer-
ships—runningoutofgas?Newtechnology,changingcustomerprefer-ences,upstartmobilityplayers,andotherfactorsareallcreatingradical
disruptions.Thechangesthemselvesarenotasecret.Whatissurpris-
ingtomanyexecutivesisthesheerscopeandspeedofthechanges
underway,andtheamountofmoneyatstakeincertaindomains.
toanalyzetheseshiftsandhowtheywillaffect
valuepoolsintheglobalautomotiveandmobilityindustrybetweennowand2035.(Ouranalysisincluded
W
erecentlydevelopedacomprehensivemodel
onlycarsandlighttrucks,notheaviercommercialvehi-cles.)Keyfindingsinclude:
?Totalvaluepools—includingbothrevenueandprofit—
willincreasedramaticallyby2035(to$8.3trillionand
$524billion,respectively),andoverallprofitmarginsfor
theindustrywillincreaseto6.3%(afteratemporarydrop).
?Despitethisgrowth,profitabilityfromtraditionalbusinessmodelswillgraduallydeclinethrough2035.Profitsfromthesaleofinternalcombustionengine(ICE)vehicles—includingplug-inhybridvehicles(PHEVs)—willseethesteepestdrop,contractingbymorethan60%.
?Virtuallyallrevenueandprofitgrowthintheindustry
willbeconcentratedinasmallnumberofemerging
segments:battery-electricvehicles(BEVs),autonomousvehicles(AVs),thecomponentsandsoftwareforBEVsandAVs,andon-demandmobility(ODM).
1HOWTOPROFITINTOMORROW’SAUTOMOTIVEANDMOBILITYINDUSTRY
?ThedeclineinclassicprofitswillbeparticularlypronouncedindevelopedautomarketsliketheUSandEuropethatdonotseeanyfurthergrowthintotalvehiclesales.
Ourfindingsshouldserveasawake-upcallformanage-
mentteamsatautomotiveandmobilityplayers—both
incumbentsandnewmarketentrants.Companieshaveanarrowwindowofopportunityinwhichtogetaheadofthedisruptions,byidentifyingandcapitalizingonthoseseg-
mentsofthemarketthatwillgrow.Managementteamscanstillrunsuccessful,profitablebusinessesintheauto-motiveandmobilityindustry,providedtheytakebold,
proactivestepstorethinkhowtheydesign,build,sell,maintain,andoperatevehicles.
QuantifyingHowDisruptionsWillAffectBoththeTopandBottomLine
Formorethanacentury,thebusinessmodelintheauto-motiveindustryhasbeenrelativelyunchanged.Incumbentcompaniesdevelop,produce,andsellcarspoweredby
ICEs,servicethem,andthenrepeatthatprocesswiththenextdesigncycle.Butjustabouteveryaspectofthatmod-elisnowinflux.
Aftermorethanacenturyofstability,almosteveryaspectofthetraditionalautoindustrybusiness
modelischanging.
BEVsaredisplacinggasoline-anddiesel-poweredcars
(includingPHEVs).Newmobilityprovidersgivepeople
alternativestotraditionalcarownership—particularlyin
cities—suchasride-hailingapps,car-sharingservices,andmicromobilityprogramsthatoffersharedbicyclesand
scooters.Salesmodelsareevolvingfromtraditionaldealer-shipstoonlineordirectpurchasesandnewformats,suchascarsubscriptions.Andautonomousvehicle(AV)tech-
nologyisgainingground.Someindustryexpertsquestionwhetherthesechangesareasdisruptiveastheyseem.Webelievethereisarealriskinunderestimatingthelevelofdisruptionunderway.
(See“DebunkingThreeMythsAbout
theMobilityIndustry’sFuture.”)
Tocompete,companiesneedtounderstandthespeedandscopeofchange,startingwiththeproductitselfbutalso
howitisbeingpurchasedandused,aswellasadditional
servicesaroundtheproduct.Tothatend,webuiltanin-
depthmarketmodeltoanalyzethesechangesinthe
automotiveandmobilityindustryandtheirimplicationsonfinancialperformance.Weconsideredtwobroadcategoriesofprofitpools.
?Classicprofitpoolsincludethoselinkedtotraditional
businessmodelsthathavebeenaroundforalong
periodoftime:salesofICEandPHEVvehiclesandthecomponentsrelatedtothem,post-saleserviceforthesevehicles,andthefinanceandinsurancesegmentsforalltypesofvehicle(ICE,plug-in,hybrid,andBEV).
?Emergingprofitpoolsincludenon-traditionalvehicles—
bothbattery-electricandautonomous—theunderlying
componentsandsoftwareinthosevehicles,thenew
typesofaftermarketsalesandservicetheyrequire(in-
cludingEVcharging),andon-demandmobility(includingride-hailingapps,car-sharingservices,robotaxis,andmi-cromobilityoptionssuchassharedbikesandscooters).
Ouranalysispointstoseveralkeyfindings.
Theoverallindustrywillgrowdramatically.First,thegoodnews.Theindustrywillcontinuetogrow,withtotalrevenueworldwideincreasingfrom$5.1trillionin2021
to$8.3trillionin2035.Overallprofitswillriseintandem,from$310billionto$524billion,acompoundannual
growthrate(CAGR)of4%.
However,as
Exhibit1
shows,mostofthatgrowthwillcomefromemergingprofitpools,whichweprojecttoincrease
almosttenfold.Atthesametime,classicpools—ICE-pow-eredvehiclesandassociatedservices—willactuallycon-tractabout17%,from$278billionto$231billion.
Salesgrowthfornewvehicleswillslow.Underpinningtheseshiftsaretwocentralfactors.First,afterdecades
ofincreasesintheoverallnumberofnewcarssoldworld-
wide,salesgrowthwillslowandvolumewillplateauat
approximately107millionunitsby2035.
(SeeExhibit2.)
Already,somemarketsareseeingadeceleration—orevenadecline—innewvehiclesales.Inadditiontomarketsatura-tion,demographicchangesmeanareductioninthenumberofpotentialcarbuyersinmanymarkets.Asubstantialgroupofpeopleareconsidering
givinguptheirprivatecars
entirely,relyingpurelyonon-demandmobilityoptions.
Underpinningthisshiftisacentralfactor:theshare
betweenprivateandcommercialcarbuyerswillchange.Inouranalysis,about9.5millionvehiclessoldin2035willgotoshared,on-demandmobilityproviderssuchas
ride-hailingservicesandautonomousrobotaxis.
2HOWTOPROFITINTOMORROW’SAUTOMOTIVEANDMOBILITYINDUSTRY
524
324
293
310
65
259
32
278
231
Exhibit1-EmergingProfitPoolsWillDriveOverallGrowthandMargin
Totalpro?t($billions)
+4%CAGR
391
152
238
Revenue
($trillions)
Margin
2021202520302035
5.1
6.1
7.1
8.3
6.0%5.3%5.5%6.3%
Classicpro?tpoolsEmergingpro?tpools
Source:BCGanalysis.
Note:Negativeprofitsexcludedfromtotalindustryprofits.
Exhibit2-DecadesofGrowthinNewCarSalesWillCometoanEnd
Globallightvehiclesales(units,millions)1
COVID-19andchipcrisis
USandEU
markets
contract
after2024;
Chinaand
restofworld
continue
growing
107
Global
?nancial
crisis
Chinese
market
Broad
opensup
Postwar
boomyears
Firstmass-
producedcar
adoption
ofshared,on-demandvehicles2
Goldentwenties
Oilcrisis
75
19001910
1920193019401950196019701980199020002010
Today
2020
2030
Sharedon-demandvehicles
Sources:IHSMarkitAutomotive(2022);BCGanalysis.
1Doesnotincludeheavyvans.
2Includesvehiclesforthepurposeofcarsharingand(autonomous)ridesharing.
BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP3
DebunkingThreeMythsAbouttheMobilityIndustry’sFuture
Inourconversationswithautomotiveexperts,wehear
severalargumentsthatthecurrentchangesunderwayin
theindustrymaynotbeasprofoundastheyseem.We
believethatthesearemythspreventingpeoplefromtakingsufficientactioninresponsetocurrentchanges.Thesefallintothreebroadcategories.
Myth:Battery-electricvehicles(BEVs)willcause
profitsintheautoindustryvaluechaintoshrinkdramatically.
OuranalysisshowsthatoverallprofitabilityforbothOEMsandcomponentmanufacturerswilldipinthenearterm
duetothemassiveinvestmentsrequiredandthefactthatthesecomponentsarenotasfaralonginthelearningandcost-reductioncurves.Butultimately,profitswillincreaseoverthelongterm.
Ashighlightedinthisarticle,industryprofitswillfacea
varietyofinfluencingforcesinthefuture,butitisworth
isolatingtheeffectofelectrificationonprofits.Manyclassicpowertrain-relatedpartswillnolongerbeneeded,and
relatedprofitpoolssuchasafter-salesservicewillshrink.Butdemandforotherproducts,liketiresorsteeringcom-ponents,willremainjustasstrong.Inaddition,BEVpower-train-relatedcomponents,suchasbatteries,e-motors,andinverters,arebecomingcorevaluedriversandwillexperi-encetremendousgrowthoverthenextyears,thanksto
increasingBEVadoptioninvehiclessalesandvehicleparc.ScaleandcorrelatedcostreductionforBEVpowertrain
componentsisakeydrivingfactorhere(whileICEpower-trainsexperienceitasareversingfactor—decliningvol-umespairedwithincreasinglydemandingemissionre-
quirementsandcorrelatedcostforICEpowertrains).By2035,newBEVcarsalesunitsandprofitswillhaveout-pacedthoseofclassicnewcarsales.
Myth:Sharedandon-demandmobilityservicesarejustatemporary—andunprofitable—blipthatwilldisappearoverthelongterm.
Mostprovidersarenotyetprofitable,butthepathto
profitabilitywillbecomeclearerovertime,duetoindustryconsolidationamongplayersacrossthevaluechain,
increasingfleetutilization,better-suitedvehicleandservicedesign,and—critically—regulatoryandpolicysupport
fromgovernments.Inparticular,governmentmeasures
thatmakeprivatelyownedvehicleslessattractive(suchasfees,outrightbans,parkingthatislessavailableormore
expensive)willmakeon-demandmobilitymoreattractive.Anotherfactorwillbetheintroductionofautonomous
vehicles,enablingrobotaxiservices.Driversarecurrentlythebiggestcostforride-hailingservices.Oncevehiclesareautomated,costswillgodown,usagerateswillincrease,andprofitabilitywillrisedramatically.
Myth:Autonomousvehicleswillneverbecometechnologicallyfeasible.Butiftheydo,they
willimmediatelyreplacetraditional,driver-operatedvehicles.
Webelievetheanswerliessomewhereinthemiddle.
Giventherangeofcompaniesdevelopingautonomous
technologyandtheprogressachievedthusfar,itisonlyamatteroftimebeforeAVsareoperational.Initially,they
willbelimitedtocommercialapplicationsinclosed-loop
routes—suchaspeoplemoversonpredesignatedtracksincities—butasthetechnologyadvances,applicationswill
expandtootheroperatingenvironments.Atthesame
time,autonomousoperationsinprivatevehicleswillcon-tinuetoadvance.Already,level3and4technologyisbeingadoptedforspecificapplicationssuchashighwaysandinstop-and-gotraffic.
DeployingAVsinanarearequiresextensivepreparations,
suchasmappingstreetsandincorporatinglocalparticulari-tiesintothecontrolalgorithms.Therefore,AVservice
providerswillrollouttheirservicesonacautious,city-by-cityapproach,withstrictgeographicboundariesandweather
constraints.Withinfivetosevenyearsofcommerciallaunch,weexpecttheglobalrobotaxifleettogrowto1.5million
vehiclesglobally.Thatmayseemhigh,butitequatestoafewhundredthousandnewrobotaxiseachyear,whichisless
than1%oftheglobalsalesvolumefornewcars.
Longerterm,evenafterAVsbecomeoperational,theywillnotreplaceothervehiclesenmasseforseveral
reasons.Manyruralareaswithlowpopulationdensity
lackattractivebusinesseconomicstosupportautonomousoperations,leavingdriversinthoseregionshighlyreliant
onprivatecarownershipforyears.Evenincities,manygovernmentswillsetoperationallimitstoavoidawhole-saleshiftawayfrompublictransitsystems.
4HOWTOPROFITINTOMORROW’SAUTOMOTIVEANDMOBILITYINDUSTRY
15%
24%
9% 7%
2%2%6%2%5%
ThreeMajorTrendsAreChangingtheGame
Asnotedabove,on-demandmobilityisonlyoneofthreetrendstriggeringmassiveshiftsintheindustry’sprofit
pools,alongwithelectrificationandautomation.Tounder-standthespeedandscopeofthisdisruption,welookat
eachtrendseparately.
(SeeExhibit3.)
BEVswilldominateanddriveprofits.Worldwide,we
arealreadyseeingbroadadoptionofelectricvehiclesin
mostmajormarkets.IncountrieslikeNorway,BEVsand
PHEVsalreadymakeupthevastmajorityofnewcarsales.Aconfluenceoftrendswillfurtherpushadoptionofplug-invehicles,includinglower-costmanufacturingthrough
scaledproductionofbothcarsandbatterypacks,greatervehiclerange,moreconvenientcharginginfrastructure,
andstricteremissionsregulations.By2035,BEVswillcom-prisenearly60%ofworldwidenewcarsales.Atthesametime,theshifttoBEVswillleadtoanincreaseinindustryprofitabilityfromnewcarsales(NCS),from$122billionin2021toapproximately$135billionin2035.
On-demandmobilitywillbecomefarbiggerand
moreprofitable.Theuseof
on-demandmobilityservices
issteadilyincreasing,andthatwilllikelycontinue,gradu-
allydecreasingrelianceonpersonalcars,taxis,andpublictransport.By2035,weprojectthatabout23%ofallmegac-itytripswillhappenthroughshared,on-demandmobility
offerings(upfromjust8%in2021).Moreover,weexpect
on-demandmobilitytobecomethesecondbiggestprofitpoolintheindustry,withtotalprofitsreaching$82billion,nearlysixtimesaslargeastoday.Withintheon-demandmobilitysegment,robotaxiswilleventuallybecomebyfarthebiggestprofitpoolwith$61billionby2035.
Autonomousvehicleswillbecomeakeyfactorin
profitability.AVswillhaveabig
impactonfutureurban
mobility
andlikewiseonprofitsfortheindustry—factoringinprivatevehiclesalesand,morerelevant,on-demand
mobilityproviders.Thefirstyearsofrobotaxioperations
willnotbeprofitableasscaleisrequiredtorecoupthe
immenseupfrontinvestmentsintoAVtechnology,butweexpectAVvehicleandAVcomponentsalestobeprofitableatanearlierstage.By2035weexpectthesetwocategoriestoaccountfor$13.4billionand$5.8billion,respectively.
Asclassicautoindustryprofitpoolsdeclinein
responsetonewtechnologies,companiesthatcanpivottoemergingpoolswillberewarded.
Exhibit3-ThreeConvergingTrendsWillDisrupttheIndustry
Electri?edvehicles
willbecomedominant
Shareofnewcarsales
2%
6%
5%
19%
5%
39%
3%
59%
2035
202120252030
Gasoline&diesel
Hybrid&mildhybrid(HEV)
Plug-inhybrid(PHEV)
Electricvehicle(BEV)
Sharedon-demandmobility
o?eringsgainacceptance
Shareofurbantripsinmegacities1
19%
8%
23%
10%
2021202520302035
Privatecar
Publictransit
Walk/privatebicycle
On-demandmobility
Autonomousvehicles
willemergeinthenexttenyears
Shareofnewcarsales
50/50split
betweenrobo
taxisandprivatelyownedAVs
20302035
20212025
NoneL3
L0/1L4/5
L2
L2+
Sources:IHSMarkitAutomotive(2022);Statista;BCGanalysis.
1BasedonablendedfuturemodalmixofNewYork,LosAngeles,Paris,London,Moscow,Shanghai,Beijing,Chongquin,Guangzhou,Tianjin,Shenzhen,Tokyo,andOsaka.
BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP5
ADramaticShifttoEmergingProfitPools
Overall,thereisadramaticswinginprofitabilityforthe
industry,awayfromclassicpoolsthatincumbentshave
longdominatedandinfavorofemergingpools—particu-
larlyBEVs,AVs,andon-demandmobility.Understanding
thecompositionofthisshiftmoregranularlyiscriticalforindustryleadershipteamstomaketargeteddecisions.Forexample,althoughtheclassicNCSprofitverticalwillplum-metfrom$120billionin2021to$47billionin2035,this
developmentismainlydrivenbydeclinesofpureICE
vehicles(?95%fordieseland?89%forgasoline).Inthe
otherdirection,the$67billionincreaseofon-demand
mobilityprofitsby2035willbepredominantlydrivenby
robotaxiservices.Allotheron-demandmobilitymodes
combinedwillmakeuponlyaboutaquarterofthetotal
profitsforthatsegmentin2035.
(SeeExhibit4.)
Thisanaly-sisincludescannibalizationeffectsbetweennewmobilitymodes(forexample,robotaxisreplacingmanualride-shar-ingduetoloweroperatingcosts).
Itiscrucialnottoremainoverlyreliantondecliningprofitpools.Thosethatadaptwillberewarded:growthinemerg-ingprofitpoolbucketswillmorethancompensatethe
lossesinclassicprofitpools.Thisisespeciallytruefor
regionswithstagnatingvehiclesaleswhereoverallindustrygrowthislimited,suchasEuropeandNorthAmerica.By
2035,emergingprofitpoolswillconstitute56%oftotalglobalindustryprofits.
GeographicDifferencesintheFutureOutlook
Anotherkeyaspectofourresearchshowshowthespeedofchangeandurgencyofactionvaryacrossregions.WhileprofitsintheUSandChinagrowatasimilarpace,they
showdifferencesingrowthcompositionovertheyears—especiallyregardingthestartofclassicprofitpooldecline.ThisdeclinehasbegunnowintheUSandissettobeginafter2025inChina.Europe,incontrast,willseeslight
overallprofitgrowth.
(SeeExhibit5.)
TheUSwillseestronggrowthinon-demandmobil-ity,includingfromautonomousvehicles.IntheUS,
salesofnewcarswithtraditionalICEpowertrains(alongwithplug-inhybrids)willdeclinesharplytoapproximatelyone-thirdofcurrentlevels,withtotalsalesofallvehicles
virtuallyflatafter2025.Newprofitswillgrowrapidlyto
comprisealargershareofoverallprofits,whileclassic
poolscontract.By2035,65%ofallprofitswillcomefromnewpools,duetobroadadoptionofBEVsandAVs,par-
ticularlyforrobotaxiservices.Theon-demandmobility
segmentoverallwillshowfastergrowth—andgeneratealargerprofitpool—thaninanyotherregion,to$39billion,asprovidersrolloutnewofferingsacrossmajorUScities.
EuropewillseethehighestratesofBEVadoption.
EuropewillseeanevenbiggerdeclineintraditionalICE
vehicleslong-term(somewhattemporarilycompensated
bygrowthinPHEVsalesthrough2024).Environmentalreg-ulationsandambitiouseffortsfromOEMswillpushBEVstomakeup93%ofnewcarsalesby2035(orevenmore,
accordingtorecentannouncementsbytheEuropean
Union).Thatgrowthwillcreateprofitpoolsof$21billionfromBEVsales,plusanother$15billioninservices(in-
cludinganattractivechargingmarket).Overall,newprofitpoolsfromBEVs,AVs,andon-demandmobilitywillmakeupnearly60%oftotalindustryprofits.
Chinawillremainthebiggestoverallcontributortoindustryprofits.Chinawillseethesmallestdeclinein
classicprofitpools.Continuedeconomicdevelopmentandincreasingper-capitavehiclesaleswillmeanthattradi-
tionalprofitpoolswillcontinuetogrowthroughroughly
2025—andremainapproximatelyinlinewiththeircurrentlevelsby2035.ProfitsfromthesaleofICEcarsandPHEVswilldeclinebymorethanhalf,butthefinanceandinsur-
ancemarketwillmakeupmostofthedifference,asthat
segmentseesdramaticgrowthduetocontinuedincreasesinvehiclesales,highervehicleprices,andincreasingpene-trationoffinancialservices.
Yet,asinboththeUSandEurope,thebiggestopportunityliesinemergingprofitpoolsasBEVadoptiongrows.We
seetremendousgrowthinprofitsfromBEVsales($25
billionin2035)andBEVpowertraincomponents($8bil-lion).Likewise,softwarecomponentswillhavebecomeasignificantprofitpool($8billion)aswillnewaftermarketsalesandservices($23billion),drivenmainlybydigital
serviceswithinandaroundthecar,suchasinfotainmentandover-the-airupdates.In2035,around58%oftotal
industryprofitswillbecapturedbyemergingprofitpools.
6HOWTOPROFITINTOMORROW’SAUTOMOTIVEANDMOBILITYINDUSTRY
.
19
(+4)
Chassis
&E/E
.
3
(+1)PHEV
.
21
(+17)MHEV
Exhibit4-Profitsin2035WillShifttoEmergingPools
Classicpro?tpools($billions)
Classic
components
Newcarsales
(ICEandhybrids)
After-sales
service
Financing
andinsurance
2035
60(–3)
56(–2)
68(+31)
47
(–73)
Total:$231billion(–47)
7
(–12)
ICE&hybrid
powertrain
.
1
(–15)
Diesel
.
13
(–1)
Accessories&
consumables1
.
20
(+2)Loans
.
16
(+3)
Body&
exterior
.
11
(–82)Gasoline
.
15
(–3)
Electronics&
mechanicalparts1
.
24
(+13)Leasing
14
(+3)
Interior
.
12
(+6)
HEV
12
(+0)
Bodyparts,
glass,lighting1
.
12
(+12)
Subscription
.
10
(+1)
Tires1
.
12
(+5)
Insurance
.
10
(–1)
Wear&tear/
maintenance1
Emergingpro?tpools($billions)
Newcomponents(BEV,AV,SW)
Newcarsales(BEV&AV)
Newaftersales,&services
On-demandmobility
2035
82(+67)
88(+86)
70(+67)
54
(+40)
Total:$293billion(+261)
.
22
(+19)
BEVpowertrain
.
3
(+2)
ADAS2(L0-3)
.
3
(+3)
AV(L4&5)
26
(+16)
Software
74
(+73)
ManualBEV
.
8
(+8)
Robotaxi
.
5
(+5)
PrivateAV
37
(+36)
Publiccharging
6
(+6)
Homeand
workplacecharging
.
5
(+3)
BEV&AV
parts,labor,
maintenance
22
(+22)
Dataand
connectivity
.
1
(+1)
Carsharing
9
(+9)
Ridesharing
61
(+61)
Robotaxi
.
3
(+3)
Micromobility
.
2
(+2)
Intermodal
platform
6
(–8)
O?inetaxi
Source:BCGanalysis.
Notes:Coloredbubblesshow2035profitpoolsize;dottedlinesindicate2021profitpoolsize.Colorednumbersinparenthesesindicatechangesinprofitpoolsizein$billions.Negativeprofitsexcluded.
1Includeslabor.
2ADAS=Advanceddriver-assistancesystems.
BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP7
+5%CAGR131
86
37
524444
82
65
5
13
60
81
74
73
33
48
6
68
14
59
144
114
54
60
87
74
23
64
63
11
Exhibit5-IndustryProfitsAreStrongestinChina
Industry
revenue
($trillions)
Industry
pro?t
($billions)
Keydrivers
US
1.21.41.61.9
65
2021202520302035
?StagnatingnewICE/PHEVcarsalesafter2025
?SlowerBEVramp-upcomparedtoEuropeandChina
?Firstmoverinautonomousride-sharing
EU
1.11.21.41.5
+2%CAGR
103
61
42
2021202520302035
?StagnatingnewICE/PHEVcarsalesafter2025
?HighBEVpenetration
?Lateradoptionofautonomous
ride-sharingvs.otherkeyregions
China
1.21.62.02.3
+5%CAGR
84
60
2021202520302035
?Increasingnewcarsalesuntil2035
?HighBEVpenetration
?Highnumberofmetropoleswithincreasingon-demandmobilityshare
Classicpro?tpoolsEmergingpro?tpools
Source:BCGanalysis.
Note:Negativeprofitsexcludedfromtotalindustryprofits.
SevenWaysforCompaniestoProactivelyAdapt
Onceleadershipteamsunderstandthespeedandmagnitudeofchangeattheindustrylevel,thenextquestionishowtheycanprepare.Thereisnouniversallyapplicablesolution.
Businessleadersandstrategistsshouldreflectonhowmuchoftheirbusinessisatrisk,andhowtheycanrepositionintohigher-growthareas.Basedonourexperienceworkingwith
leadingautomotiveandmobilityplayers,wehavedefined
sevenprincipalplays.
(SeeExhibit6.)
Eachtargetsdifferentprofitpoolsandrequiresvaryingcapabilities,butallhaveoneaspectincommon:tremendousprofitpotential.
Components.Thisplaysummarizesbothclassicand
emergingcomponentsandisalreadybothsizeableand
highlyprofitabletoday.Inouranalysis,theprofitpoolforcomponentsisexpectedtoreach$121billionby2035.
However,componentmanufacturersfacevaryingdegreesofexposuretoprofit-poolshifts.Asupplierofseating
systemsdoesnotcaretoomuchaboutICEvehiclesbeingreplacedbyBEVs,butasupplierofICEcomponentssuchasfuel-injectionsystemswillbeprofoundlydisrupted.
Companiespushingthisplayneedtoidentifyemerging
componentfieldswithlong-termdemand.Forexample,a
camshaftsuppliermightlookcloselyatthemarketforBEVpowertraincomponentsorotheradjacentfields.Inparallel,acomponentsuppliermightlooktoenternewgeographicmarketsorexpandintonewindustries(suchasoffering
BEVcomponentsnotonlyforlightvehiclesbutalsoforothertypesofvehiclesorevenstationaryproducts).
Electricvehicles.Electrificationistheultimatedisruptingforceintheindustryrightnow.ItdrawscompetitionfromtraditionalOEMsandsuppliers,newcomersandstartups,
andadjacentincumbentssuchasenergycompanies—andisexpectedtoreachatotalprofitpoolsizeof$140billion
by2035.Successinthisplaycancomethroughdifferent
strategies,suchasservingthemassmarketbyproducing
EVsinvolumeversusdevelopingpurpose-builtEVsforspe-cificapplications.
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