高盛-中國電池行業(yè)

__Lithiumbatteryindustryguidance(2024version)draftreleased.On8thMay,2024,thedraftLithiumbatteryindustryguidance1wasreleasedseekingpubliccomments.Thedocumentlaysoutalistofdetailedspeci?cationsforbatteryandcomponentsmanufacturing,inspectionandproductindicators,aswesummarizeinExhibit2andExhibit3.Wedon’texpectmaterialshort-termimpact.Whilesomenewsreportshighlightpotentialforcapacityreductionfromthedraftpolicyandsomeinvestorswespoketoquestionedifthedraftmeasurewouldresultinneartermdeclineinexcesscapacities(similartoimpactonsteel,cementetc.following‘2015supplysidereforms’),weseelimitedshort-termimplicationsonbatterycapacityduetothefollowingreasons:Firstly,thedraftpolicymeasuresarenotmandatory.Asstatedinthedraft,theguidanceaimstoencourageandfacilitateindustrytechnologyadvancementandregulateddevelopment,insteadofbringingcapacityadditionundergovernmentreviewandapproval.Secondly,thepolicyisnotanewone,butanupdate.Chinalithiumbatteryindustryguidancewasinitiallyrolledoutin2015,andhassincebeenupdatedevery3years.Assuch,weviewthe2024draftversionasascheduledpolicyrenewalinsteadofanewpolicyissuance.Thirdly,theproposedspeci?cationchangesareminorvsthepriordraftpolicy,assuchwebelievemajorityofexistingcapacitiescouldmeetthelatestdraftstandards.Forillustrativepurposes,assuming20%of2021Acapacity(Tier3andmarginals)weretonotmeetthe2024draftguidance,thiswouldimply~7%ofcurrentbattery(components5%-10%)capacitymightnotqualifyforthe2024draftstandards,whichcomparesto40%+overcapacityin2024EacrossChinabatterysupplychainperourestimate.Nonetheless,overcapacitypressureislikelytoeasefundamentally,af?rmingour‘softlanding’thesis.Weestimatethelatest1Q24CAPEXindicated50%declinefrompeak(Exhibit5),closertoourLTbalancedlevel.Wemaintainourestimatethat2024Ewilllikelyseeatroughintermsofutilisation,thankstosustainedCAPEXdeceleration.WeforecastChinabatteryutilisationof+852-2978-7954|eric.shen@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.+852-2978-6426|qiying.wei@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.1InChinese:鋰電池行業(yè)規(guī)范條件(2024年本).GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveacon?ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgo/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaf?liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.__56%/59%/62%in2024-26E,from61%in2023A(Exhibit4).Additionaltailwindsincludevaluationclosingto2018-2020downcyclelevelandbatterypricesbottomingoutwhichalleviatesde-stockingpressure.Formoredetails,refertoour‘soft-landingthesis’,investorfeedbackandChinamainlandmarketingfeedback.Wepreferbatterymakersovercomponents.Weexpectinvestors’attentiontograduallyshifttofundamentalpositivesandwouldlikelyhelptofacilitatevaluationrecoveryofbatterymakers.WepreferbatterymakersovercomponentmakersoverallconsideringhighermarketconcentrationanddeeperCAPEXcuts.Withinourcoverage,wefavorGotionandEVEEnergyasweexpectbothstockstobene?tfromindustryutilisationrecoveryandsustainablevolumegrowth,maintainBuyratings;WeremainSell-ratedonTinci,FarasisandZhenhua,asweseethesestocksexposedtooversupplypressures.Gotionremainsasourtoppick.WefavorGotiongiventhestockiswellpositionedinbothour‘softlanding’thesisandoverseasexpansionthesis,consideringitsdeeplydiscountedvaluation(1.5xPB,lowerendinChinabatteryspace)andhighexposuretothemoreattractiveoverseasmarket.ChinacapacityBatteryCathodeNCMSeparatorElectrolyte(LiPF6)GWhmsqm2018A3072072,662402021A4885266349,62375.32023A3,6992,60823,0402292018A/2023A9%8%19% 4%2021A/2023A35%31%48%24%42%33%Assuming%of2021Acapacityunqualifyfor2024standard20%20%20%20%20%20%Implied%unqualifiedcapacityasof2023A7%6%5%8%7%__20152018202120242024vs.2021changeScaleandmanufacturingCapacity≥100mWhCathodeAnodeSeparator≥20msqmElectrolyte(lithiumsalt)≥2000t(≥500t)R&Das%ofRevenueElectrodeInspectionThicknessinspection2μm2μm2μmElectrodelengthinspectionElectrodeburinspectionWatercontentAlignment0.1mm0.1mm0.1mmVoltageInternalresistancePerformanceIndicatorEnergydensity-NCMn.a≥210Wh/kg≥230Wh/kgn.a≥150Wh/kg≥165Wh/kgEnergydensity-LFPn.a≥160Wh/kg≥165Wh/kgn.a≥115Wh/kg≥120Wh/kg4%Energydensity-ESSn.a≥145Wh/kg≥155Wh/kgn.a≥100Wh/kg≥110Wh/kg≥600020%Capacityretentionn.a≥80%≥80%_2027E2028E2029E2030E2Q18_2027E2028E2029E2030E2Q183Q184Q182Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q2540%30%32920152018202120242024vs.2021changePerformanceIndicatorCathode≥145Ah/kg≥155mAh/g≥165Ah/kgAnodeGraphite≥335Ah/kg≥340mAh/gSeparatorDry-uniaxialtensionLongitudinalTensileStrengthn.a≥110MPa≥120MPaTransversetensilestrengthn.a≥10MPa≥10MPaPuncturestrengthDry-bidirectionaldrawingLongitudinalTensileStrengthn.a≥100MPa≥110MPaTransversetensilestrengthn.a≥25MPa≥25MPaPuncturestrengthWet-bidirectionaldrawingLongitudinalTensileStrengthn.a≥100MPa≥110MPaTransversetensilestrengthn.a≥60MPa≥90MPaPuncturestrengthn.a≥0.204N/μm≥0.204N/μmElectrolyteWatercontent≤20ppm≤20ppm≤50ppm≤50ppmSodium≤2ppm≤2ppmOthermetal≤1ppm≤1ppmSO4-≤10ppm≤5ppmUtilisation(%)90%80%70%65%64%70%65%64%62%61%62%59%56%60%56%52%48%50%2018A2019A2019A652020A39%2020A952021A2021A2282022A2022A4512023E2023E4592024E2024E4032025E2025E3922026E2026E351netaddition(GWh)60050065%66%66%65%66%3002001003504134943504130Capex(Rmbbn)60down50%frompeakbalancedcapex40363540363532292626262626262721201920212020898776776750CATLBYDOthersTotalCAPEX__EVEEnergyistransitioningfromanestablishedconsumerbatteryleadertoapowerbatterysupplier,with5.5%globalmarketsharein2023.Wearepositiveonthecompanyasweviewitasakeyenablerofbigcylindricalbatteriesandlargesizeprismaticstackingbatteries,andexpectittobene?tfromdifferentiatedproductsadoptionstimulatedbyChinabatteryovercapacity.Inaddition,EVEEnergyistappingintotheUSmarketviajointventureandtechnologylicensing,whichweviewasconstructivelyunderpinningitsmid-tolong-termpro?tability.WeareBuy-ratedonthestock,believingthemarkethasundervaluedthecompany’sgrowthpotentialatthecurrentprice.Weexpectthesuccessfulramp-upofhigh-endbatteryproductsandprogressoverseaswilldriveastockre-rating.Valuationmethodology:Our12-mTPofRmb55.5isderivedfromanaverageofanear-andlong-termvaluation.Weusea3MaverageP/Eof16.5xfor2024Etoarriveatanear-termvaluation,whileemployinga15xlong-termP/Efor2030E,discountedbackto2024Eata10.8%COEtoderivealong-termvaluation.Keydownsiderisks:1)slower-than-expectedoverseasprojectprogress;2)investmentincomerisk;and3)lower-than-expectedconsumerbatterypro?t.GotionisabatterypioneerinChinawithalithiumironphosphate(LFP)focus,ranked5thbyinstallationin2023A.Wearepositiveonthecompany’soverseasinvestments,expectingittobene?tfromafavorablecost-plusmechanismandsupportfrompotential?nancialsubsidies,especiallyintheUS.Inaddition,weviewitscooperationwithVolkswagenasanopportunityforittoupgradeitsproductmixandtransitiontothehigher-endmarket.WeareBuyratedonthestockasweappreciateGotion’spotentialasanearlymovertotransitionfromthepricecompetitivedomesticmarkettothelucrativeoverseasmarket,andexpectfurtherprogressinoverseasexpansiontodrivethestock.Weviewthestockasundervaluedgiventhemarkethasyettofactorinpotentialoverseasinvestmentreturn.Valuationmethodology:Our12-mTPofRmb31.4isderivedfromanaverageofanear-andlong-termvaluation.Weusea3MaverageP/Eof35.8xfor2024Etoarriveatanear-termvaluation,whileemployinga15.0xlong-termP/Efor2030E,discountedbackto2024Eata10.8%COEtoderivealong-termvaluation.Keydownsiderisks:1)slower-than-expectedoverseasprojectprogress;2)sharelosswithmajorOEMs;and3)stronger-than-expectedpricecompetitioninthedomesticmarket.FarasisisthelargestpouchbatterymakerinChinawith1.7%globalmarketsharein2023,onourestimates.Whileweexpectthecompanytobene?tfromthetailwindsof__ex-Chinademandgrowth,weexpectgrosspro?tmargintobebelowtheindustryaveragebecauseofthehighcostsofpouchbatterymaterials.FarasishasstrengthenedpartnershipswithkeycustomersincludingMercedes-BenzandGACviashareholdingarrangements.However,webelievegrosspro?tofFarasis’nichepouchproductwillcontinuetobepressuredbymainstreamprismaticbatteryproductsgiventhecostdisadvantages.WeforecastFarasis’batteryunitgrosspro?tmargintostaybelowtheindustryaveragelevelduringourforecastyears.WeareSellratedonthestockgivenrelativelylimitedrisk-rewardvs.ourcoverage.Valuationmethodology:Our12-mTPofRmb8.0isderivedfromanaverageofanear-andlong-termvaluation.Weusea1xPBfor2024EBVPStoarriveatanear-termvaluation,whileemployingan15.0xlong-termP/Efor2030Eanddiscountingbackto2024Eata10.8%COEtoderivealong-termvaluation.Keyupsiderisks:1)signi?cantlong-termcontractsfromOEMs;2)stronger-than-expectedgrowthfromnewbatteries;3)higher-than-expectedgovernmentsubsidies.Tinciisthegloballeaderinelectrolyteandsolventmaterialsintermsofcapacityandsalesvolume.Weestimateitsglobalmarketshareat42%in2023A,whichweexpecttomarginallydeclineto35%by2030E.Factoringinholisticovercapacitypressureacrossthesupplychain,weforecastunitgrosspro?tofelectrolytetodroptoc.Rmb4kin2024E/2025E,fromarecordhighofRmb19k/tin2022Awhensupplyanddemandwasintightbalance.For2025-2030E,weexpectmid-cycleofRmb4k/tindomesticmarket(Rmb5kincludingoverseas).WeareSellratedonthestockaswebelievethemarkethasunderestimatedtheholisticoversupplyrisks.Valuationmethodology:Our12-mTPofRmb15.8isderivedfromanaverageofanear-andlong-termvaluation.Weusea3MaverageP/Eof29Xfor2024Etoarriveatanear-termvaluation,whileemployinga15xlong-termP/Efor2030Eanddiscountingbackto2024Eata10.8%COEtoderivealong-termvaluation.Keyupsiderisks:1)innovationintheelectrolytechemistry.Weassumegrosspro?tcontributionfromrecipestonarrowovertime.SolidinnovationinelectrolytechemistrysystemledbyTincicouldmateriallysupportunitgrosspro?t;2)sustainedpricepremiumfromoverseasmarketsonthebackoflongtermcontracts;3)massivedelaysorcancellationofelectrolytecapacityexpansionfrompeersthattightensthemarket.ZhenhuaisanNCMcathodemakerwhichisrampingupsodium-ioncathodewithitsadvantageousone-stepsinglegranularcrystallineprocess(一次顆粒單晶工藝).Weexpectsodium-ioncathodetocontribute15%ofgrosspro?ttoZhenhuaby2025Ebasedon10GWhsalesvolume.However,thegrowingindustrysupplyofNCMcathode,__whichaccountsforthemajorityofZhenhua’sgrosspro?t,isaheadwindtomargins.Zhenhuahasdevelopedadifferentiatedone-stepgranularsinglecrystallineprocesstoproducehighvoltageNCMproducts.Leveragingonthisknow-how,Zhenhuahasa?rst-moveradvantageincommercializingsodium-ioncathodematerials,inourview.ConsideringthebullishsupplyadditionsexpectedinChina’sNCMindustry,weforecastNCMunitgrosspro?twilldeclinetoRmb20k/t,Rmb19k/tandRmb18k/tbyin2023E,2024Eand2025EfromRmb41k/tin22A.For2030E,weassumegrosspro?tofRmb12k/tforZhenhua’sNCMproducttofactorinsustainedoversupply.Webenchmarksodium-ionunitgrosspro?ttoNCMfrom2025Efromanopportunitycostangle.Drivenbya28%cathodesalesvolumegrowthCAGRin2022-2030E,offsetbygrossmargincontractionduetoindustryoversupply,weforecasta4%EPSCAGRinthesameperiod.WeareSellratedonthestockasweseehighexposuretoovercapacityrisks,andweviewvaluationasexpensiveatthecurrentprice.Valuationmethodology:Our12-mTPofRmb13.9isderivedfromanaverageofanear-andlong-termvaluation.Weusea3MaverageP/Eof47.8Xfor2024Etoarriveatanear-termvaluation,whileemployinga15xlong-termP/Efor2030Eanddiscountbackto2024Eata10.8%COEtoderivealong-termvaluation.Keyupsiderisks:1)Developmoreadvancedcathodeproductsorsecuresigni?cantsupplycontracts;2)stronger-than-expectedsodium-iondemand;3)anincreaseinthenumberofcontractsfrombatterymakers;4)slower-than-expectedindustrycapacityaddition.__We,EricShenandQiyingWei,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyre?ectourpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesanditsortheirsecurities.Wealsocertifythatnopartofourcompensationwas,isorwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespeci?crecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisreport.Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystTheGoldmanSachsFactorPro?leprovidessectorpeers.Thefourkeyattributesdepictedare:Growth,FinancialReturns,Multiple(e.ReturnsandMultiple).Growth,FinancialReturnsandMultiplearecalcunormalizedranksforthemetricsarethenaveragedandconvertedintopercentilesfortherelevantattribute.Theprecisecalculationofeachmetrvarydependingonthe?scalyear,industryandregion,butthestandardapproachisasfollows:Growthisbasedonastock’sforward-lookingsalesgrowth,EBITDAgrowthstocks,onlyROE),withahigherpercentileindicatingacompanywithhigherindicatingastocktradingatahighermultiple.TheIntegratedpercentileiscalculatedapercentileand(100%-Multiplepercentile).FinancialReturnsandMultipleusetheGoldmanSachsanalystforecastsatthe?scalyear-endatleastthreequartersinthefuture.Growtforthe?scalyearatleastsevenquartersinthefuturecomparedwiththeyearatleastthreequartersinthefuture(onaper-sharebasisforallmetrics).ForamoredetaileddescriptionofhowwecalculatetheGSFactorPro?le,Acrossourglobalcoverage,weexaminestocksusinganM&Aframework,consideringbothqualitativefactorsandquantitativefactors(whichmayvaryacrosssectorsandregions)toincorporatethepotentialthatcertaincompaniescouldbeacquired.WethenassignaM&Arancompaniesunderourratedcoveragefrom1to3,with1representinghigh(30%-50%)probabilityofthecompanybecominganacquisitiontarget,2representingmedium(15%-30%)probabilityand3representinglow(0%-15%)probability.FordepartmentalguidelinesweincorporateanM&Acomponentintoourtargetprice.M&Arankof3isconsideredimmaterialandthereforedoesnotfactorintoourpricetarget,andmayormaQuantumisGoldmanSachs’proprietarydatabaseprovidingaccesstodetailed?nancialstatementhistories,forecastsandratin-depthanalysisofasinglecompany,ortomakecomparisonsbetweencompaniesindifferentsectorsandmarkets.ThefollowingdisclosuresrelatetorelationshipsbetweenTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.(withitsaf?liates,“GoldmanSachs”)andcompaniGoldmanSachsexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseekcompensationforinvestmentbankingserviGoldmanSachshadaninvestmentbankingseRatingDistributionInvestmentBankingRelationshipsBuyHoldSellBuyHoldSellGlobal48%36%16%64%56%41%BuysandSellsonvariousregthepurposesoftheabovedisclosurerequiredbytheFBankingRelationshipschartre?ectsthepercentageofsubjectcompanieswithineachratingcategoryforwhomGoldmanSachshasprovidedinvestmentbankingserviceswithintheprevioustwelvemonths.__Seecompany-speci?cregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachprincipalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdisThefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialcon?ictsofinterest:Goldmanprofessionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Analystcompensation:Analystsarepaidinpartbasedonthepro?tabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingre__asof?cerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembecommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.Distributionofratings:Seethedistributionofratingsdisclosureabove.Pricechartpriorperiods,above,or,ifelectronicformatorifwithrespecttomultiplecompanieswhicharethesubjectofthisreport,ontheGoldmanSachswebsiteat/research/hedge.html.Thefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsaf?liatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-it,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.Inproducingresearchreports,membersofGlobalInvestmentResearchofGoldmanSachsAustralthecompaniesandotherentitieswhicharethesubjectofitsresearchreports.InsomeinstancesthecostsofsuchsitevisitsormeetingsmaybemetinpartorinwholebytheissuersconcernedifGoldmanSachsAustraliaconsidersitisatothesitevisitormeeting.Totheextentthatthecontentsofthisdocumentcontainsany?nancialproductadvice,itisgeneraladviceonlyandhasbeenpreparedbyGoldmanSachswithouttakingintoaccountaclient’sobjectives,?nancialsituationorneeds.Aclientshouldsuchadvice,considertheappropriatenessoftheadvicehavingregardtotheclient’sownobjectives,?nancialsituationandneeds.AcopyofcertainStatementareavailableat:/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Brazil:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoCVMResolutionn.20isavailableat/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html.Whereapplicable,theBrazil-registeredanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,asde?nedinArticle20ofCVMResolutionn.20,isthe?rstauthornamedatthebeginningofthisreport,unlessindicatedotherwiseattheendofthetext.Canada:Thisinformationisbeingprovidedtoyouforinformationpurposesonlyandisnot,andundernocircumstancesshouldbeconstruedas,anadvertisapplicableCanadiansecuritieslawsandgenerallyisnotpermittedtotradeinCanadiansecuritiesandmaybandproductsincertainjurisdictionsinCanadsecuritiesofcoveredcompaniesreferredtointhisonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferrethesecurities(assuchtermisde?nedinclause2(h)theIreferredtointhisresearchreport.Investmentinsecuritiesmarketaresubjecttomarketrisks.Readalltherelateddocumentscarefullybeforeinvesting.RegistrationgrantedbySEBIandcerti?cationfromNISMinnowayguaranteeperformanceoftheintermediaryorprovideanyassuranceof“professionalinvestors”withinthemeaningoftheFinancialServicesandCapitalMarketsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.FurtherinformationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferreZealand:GoldmanSachsNewZealandLimitedanditsaf?liatesareneither“registeredbanks”nor“deposittNewZealandAct1989)inNewZealand.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,is/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Russia:ResearchreportsdistributedintheRussianFedeadvertisingasde?nedintheRussianlegislation,butareinformationandprovideappraisalwithinthemeaningoftheRussianlegislationonappraisalactivity.Rerecommendationasde?nedinRussianlawsandregulations,arenotaddressedtoaspeci?cclient,andarepreparedcircumstances,investmentpro?lesorriskpro?lesofclients.GoldmanSachsassumesnoresponsibilityforanyinvestmentdecisionsthatmaybetakenregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore,acceptslegalresponsibilityforthisresearch,andshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,thisresearch.Taiwan:Thismaterialisforreferenceonlyandmustnotbereprintedwithoutpermission.Investorsshouldcarefullyconsidertheirowninvestmentrisk.Investmentresultsaretheresponsibilityoftheindividualinvestor.UnitedKingdom:PersonswhowouldbecategorizedasretailclientsintheUnitedKingdom,assuchtermisde?nedintherulesoftheFinancialConductAuthresearchinconjunctionwithpriorGoldmanSachsresearchonthecoveredcompaniesreferredtohereinanbeensenttothembyGoldmanSachsInternational.Acopyoftheseriskswarnings,andaglossaryofcertain?nancialtermsusedinthEuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoArticlimplementedintoUnitedKingdomdomesticlawandregulationfollowingtheUnitedKingdom’sdeparturefromtheEuropeanUnionandtheEuropeanEconomicArea)withregardtoregulatorytechnicalstandardsforthetechnicalarrangementsforobjectivepresentationofinvestmentrecommendationsorotherinformationrecommendingorsuggestinganinvestmentstrategyandfordisclosureofparticularinterestsorindicationsofcon?ictsofinterestisavailableat/disclosures/europeanpolicy.htmlwhichstatestheEuropeanPolicyforManagingCon?ictsofInterestinConnectionwithInvestmentResearch.InvestmentTrustsAssociation,Japan,andJapanInvestmentAdvisersAssociation.Salesandpurchaseofequitiesaresubjecttocommissionpre-determinedwithclientsplusconsumptiontax.Seecompany-speci?cdisclosuresastoanyapplicabledisclosuresrequiredbyJapanesestockexchanges,theJapaneseSecuritiesDeBuy(B),Neutral(N),Sell(S)AnalysSellonanInvestmentListisdetNeutral.EachregionmanagesRegionalConvictionlists,whichareselrepresentinvestmentrecommendationsfocusedonthesizeofthetotalreturnpotentialand/orthelikelihoodoftherealizationofthereturnacrosstheirrespectiveareasofcoverage.TheadditionorremovalofstocksfromsuchConvictionlistsaremanagedbytheInvestmentReviewCommitteeorothdesignatedcommitteeineachrespectiveregionanddonotrepresentachangeintheanalysts’investmentr__Totalreturnpotentialrepresentstheupsideordownsidedifferentialbetweenthecurrentsharepriceandthepricetarget,includingallpaidoranticipateddividends,expecte