高盛-預(yù)計(jì)推遲到9月降息

_

24May2024|6:09AMEDT

USDaily:MovingtheFirstFedCutBacktoSeptember(Mericle)

nWearemovingourforecastoftheFed’s?rstratecutbackonemeeting,fromJulytoSeptember.Earlierthisweek,wenotedthatcommentsfromFed

of?cialssuggestedthataJulycutwouldlikelyrequirenotjustbetterin?ation

numbersbutalsomeaningfulsignsofsoftnessintheactivityorlabormarket

data.AfterthestrongerMayPMIsandlowerjoblessclaims,thisdoesnotlooklikethemostlikelyoutcome.

nFouradditionalCPIreportswillbeavailablebytheSeptembermeeting,andif

monthlycoreCPIin?ationaveragesinthehigh20sandcorePCEinthelow20s,asweexpect,thenwethinkmostFOMCparticipantswillsupportaratecut.WeinterpretChairPowell’srecentcommentsaspointingtowarda

middle-of-the-roadpathofcuttinggraduallyinrecognitionofboththe

considerablecumulativeprogressmadeinsolvingthein?ationproblemandtherealitiesthatin?ationislikelytoremainnoticeablyabovetargetthisyearandtheeconomyisperformingwellatthecurrentlevelofinterestrates.

nThetimingofthe?rstcutremainsadif?cultquestionforafewreasons.First,

wecontinuetoseeratecutsasoptional,whichlessenstheurgency.Second,

in?ationislikelytobemuchimprovedbySeptemberbuthardlyperfectandstillatayear-on-yearratethatmakescuttingalessthanobviousdecision.Third,

whiletheFedleadershipappearstoshareourrelaxedviewonthein?ation

outlookandwilllikelybereadytocutbeforetoolong,anumberofFOMC

participantsstillappeartobemoreconcernedaboutin?ationandmorereluctanttocut.

JanHatzius

+1(212)902-0394|jan.hatzius@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

AlecPhillips

+1(202)637-3746|alec.phillips@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

DavidMericle

+1(212)357-2619|

david.mericle@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

SpencerHill,CFA

+1(212)357-7621|spencer.hill@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

RonnieWalker

+1(917)343-4543|

ronnie.walker@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

ManuelAbecasis

+1(212)902-8357|

manuel.abecasis@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

TimKrupa

+1(202)637-3771|tim.krupa@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

ElsiePeng

+1(212)357-3137|elsie.peng@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

JessicaRindels

+1(972)368-1516|

jessica.rindels@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certi?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.

_

24May2024|6:09AMEDT

USDaily:MovingtheFirstFedCutBacktoSeptember(Mericle)

nWearemovingourforecastoftheFed’s?rstratecutbackonemeeting,fromJulytoSeptember.Earlierthisweek,wenotedthatcommentsfromFed

of?cialssuggestedthataJulycutwouldlikelyrequirenotjustbetterin?ation

numbersbutalsomeaningfulsignsofsoftnessintheactivityorlabormarket

data.AfterthestrongerMayPMIsandlowerjoblessclaims,thisdoesnotlooklikethemostlikelyoutcome.

nFouradditionalCPIreportswillbeavailablebytheSeptembermeeting,andif

monthlycoreCPIin?ationaveragesinthehigh20sandcorePCEinthelow20s,asweexpect,thenwethinkmostFOMCparticipantswillsupportaratecut.WeinterpretChairPowell’srecentcommentsaspointingtowarda

middle-of-the-roadpathofcuttinggraduallyinrecognitionofboththe

considerablecumulativeprogressmadeinsolvingthein?ationproblemandtherealitiesthatin?ationislikelytoremainnoticeablyabovetargetthisyearandtheeconomyisperformingwellatthecurrentlevelofinterestrates.

nThetimingofthe?rstcutremainsadif?cultquestionforafewreasons.First,

wecontinuetoseeratecutsasoptional,whichlessenstheurgency.Second,

in?ationislikelytobemuchimprovedbySeptemberbuthardlyperfectandstillatayear-on-yearratethatmakescuttingalessthanobviousdecision.Third,

whiletheFedleadershipappearstoshareourrelaxedviewonthein?ation

outlookandwilllikelybereadytocutbeforetoolong,anumberofFOMC

participantsstillappeartobemoreconcernedaboutin?ationandmorereluctanttocut.

JanHatzius

+1(212)902-0394|jan.hatzius@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

AlecPhillips

+1(202)637-3746|alec.phillips@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

DavidMericle

+1(212)357-2619|

david.mericle@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

SpencerHill,CFA

+1(212)357-7621|spencer.hill@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

RonnieWalker

+1(917)343-4543|

ronnie.walker@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

ManuelAbecasis

+1(212)902-8357|

manuel.abecasis@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

TimKrupa

+1(202)637-3771|tim.krupa@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

ElsiePeng

+1(212)357-3137|elsie.peng@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

JessicaRindels

+1(972)368-1516|

jessica.rindels@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certi?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.

_

USDaily

Earlierthisweek,wenotedthatcommentsfromFedof?cials,inparticularaspeechbyGovernorWaller,suggestedthataJulycutwouldlikelyrequirenotjustbetternumbersinthelimitednumberofin?ationreportsstilltocomeaheadofthatmeeting,butalso

somesignsofsoftnessintheactivityorlabormarketdatathatcouldbringbackthe

24Ma2024

GoldmanSachs

MovingtheFirstFedCutBacktoSeptember

WearemovingourforecastoftheFed’s?rstratecutbackonemeeting,fromJulytoSeptember.Wecontinuetoexpectonecutperquarteroreveryothermeeting,

meaningthatthesecondcutwouldnowcomeinDecember.Theshiftintimingdoesnotchangeourexpectationoftwocutsintotalin2024.

senseofurgencythattheFedleadershipfeltatthestartoftheyear.AfterthestrongerMayPMIsandlowerjoblessclaims,thisdoesnotlooklikethemostlikelyoutcomeoverthenextcoupleofmonths.

WhatwillchangefromJulytoSeptember?Nothingfundamental,inourview,buttwoadditionalCPIreportswillbecomeavailable,foratotaloffourbetweennowandthe

Septembermeeting.WeexpectmonthlycoreCPIin?ationtorunonaverageinthehigh20sandcorePCEin?ationtoruninthelow20soverthatperiod,asshowninExhibit1.Ifourforecastsareroughlyright,thenwethinkmostFOMCparticipantswillsupportaratecutinSeptember.

WealsosuspectthattheFedleadershipwouldliketostartbythen.WeinterpretChairPowell’srecentcommentsaspointingtowardamiddle-of-the-roadpathofcutting

graduallystartingsometimethisyear.Suchanapproachwouldrecognizeboththe

considerablecumulativeprogressmadeinsolvingthein?ationproblem—corePCE

in?ationhasbeencutinhalf,asPowellnoted,andtheriskofalate60s-stylein?ationaryspiralhasbeenputtorest—aswellastherealitiesthatin?ationisstillnoticeablyabovetargetandtheeconomyisperformingwellatthecurrentlevelofinterestrates.

Whycutatallthisyear?Whileourbaselineforecastcontinuestoimplythatthe

economywouldremaininexpansionevenwithoutcuts,therearesomesignsof

moderatesoftnessintheactivityandlabormarketdata,andFedof?cialsmightfearthattheabrupttransitionfromverylowrateslastcycletomuchhigherratesthiscycle

invitesthesortofunpredictable?nancialtroubleseenintheBritishpensionfundand

USregionalbankcrises.Eveniftheseriskslookmodestandsomewhatvague,atsomepointFedof?cialswilllikelybecon?dentenoughinthein?ationpicturetojudgethattherisksarenotworthtaking.

y

2

_

24Ma2024

GoldmanSachs

USDaily

Exhibit1:WeExpectMonthlyCoreCPIIn?ationtoRunintheHigh20sonAverageandCorePCEintheLow20sintheRunUptotheSeptemberMeetingandThinkThatThisWouldBeEnoughforaRateCut

GSForecasts(%change)

3mannual.

3.42

3.93

3.18

3.65

2.81

3.37

2.46

3.13

FOMCmeeting

May31

June12

June12

June28

July11

July26

July31

August14

August30

September11September18

PCE

CPI

FOMCmeetingPCE

CPI

PCE

FOMCmeetingCPI

PCE

CPI

6mannual.

3.22

4.06

3.46

4.09

3.61

3.74

2.94

3.53

MoM

0.26

0.31

0.21

0.29

0.23

0.22

0.17

0.26

Apr.May

MayJuneJune

JulyJulyAug.

YoY

2.77

3.57

2.69

3.67

2.74

3.66

2.80

3.69

Period

Event

Date

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Thetimingofthe?rstcutremainsadif?cultquestionforafewreasons.

First,wecontinuetoseeratecutsasoptional,whichlessenstheurgency.

Second,in?ationislikelytobemuchimprovedbySeptemberbuthardlyperfectandstillatayear-on-yearratethatmakescuttingalessthanobviousdecision.Weinterpreted

theMarchSummaryofEconomicProjections—whichshowedamedianofthreecutsalongsidea2.6%2024Q4/Q4rateofcorePCEin?ation—asloweringthebarforacut,butwearenowontracktoovershootthatsomewhat.

Third,whiletheFedleadershipappearstoshareourrelaxedviewonthein?ation

outlookandwilllikelybereadytocutbeforetoolong,anumberofFOMCparticipantsstillappeartobemoreconcernedaboutin?ationandmorereluctanttocut.ThiswiderangeofviewsincreasestheuncertaintyaboutwhattheCommitteewouldchoosetodoevenifourin?ationforecastturnsouttoberoughlyright.

DavidMericle

y

3

_

USDaily

GoldmanSachs

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,JanHatzius,AlecPhillips,DavidMericle,SpencerHill,CFA,RonnieWalker,ManuelAbecasis,TimKrupa,ElsiePengandJessicaRindels,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyre?ectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeenin?uencedbyconsiderationsofthe

?rm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

Disclosures

Regulatorydisclosures

DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations

Seecompany-speci?cregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa

principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.

Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialcon?ictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.

Analystcompensation:Analystsarepaidinpartbasedonthepro?tabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analyst

asof?cerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanof?cer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbe

associatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.

AdditionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsotherthantheUnitedStates

Thefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsaf?liatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-takinginstitutions(asthattermisde?nedinthe

BankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.In

producingresearchreports,membersofGlobalInvestmentResearchofGoldmanSachsAustraliamayattendsitevisitsandothermeetingshostedbythecompaniesandotherentitieswhicharethesubjectofitsresearchreports.InsomeinstancesthecostsofsuchsitevisitsormeetingsmaybemetinpartorinwholebytheissuersconcernedifGoldmanSachsAustraliaconsidersitisappropriateandreasonableinthespeci?ccircumstancesrelatingtothesitevisitormeeting.Totheextentthatthecontentsofthisdocumentcontainsany?nancialproductadvice,itisgeneraladviceonlyandhas

beenpreparedbyGoldmanSachswithouttakingintoaccountaclient’sobjectives,?nancialsituationorneeds.Aclientshould,beforeactingonany

suchadvice,considertheappropriatenessoftheadvicehavingregardtotheclient’sownobjectives,?nancialsituationandneeds.Acopyofcertain

GoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsandacopyofGoldmanSachs’AustralianSell-SideResearchIndependencePolicyStatementareavailableat:

/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Brazil:Disclosureinformationinrelationto

CVMResolutionn.20isavailableat

/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html.Whereapplicable

,theBrazil-registeredanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,asde?nedinArticle20ofCVMResolutionn.20,isthe?rstauthornamedatthebeginningofthisreport,unlessindicatedotherwiseattheendofthetext.Canada:Thisinformationisbeingprovidedtoyouforinformationpurposesonlyandisnot,andundernocircumstancesshouldbeconstruedas,anadvertisement,offeringorsolicitationbyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCforpurchasersof

securitiesinCanadatotradeinanyCanadiansecurity.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCisnotregisteredasadealerinanyjurisdictioninCanadaunder

applicableCanadiansecuritieslawsandgenerallyisnotpermittedtotradeinCanadiansecuritiesandmaybeprohibitedfromsellingcertainsecuritiesandproductsincertainjurisdictionsinCanada.IfyouwishtotradeinanyCanadiansecuritiesorotherproductsinCanadapleasecontactGoldman

SachsCanadaInc.,anaf?liateofTheGoldmanSachsGroupInc.,oranotherregisteredCanadiandealer.HongKong:Furtherinformationonthe

securitiesofcoveredcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedonrequestfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.India:FurtherinformationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimited,Research

Analyst-SEBIRegistrationNumberINH000001493,951-A,RationalHouse,AppasahebMaratheMarg,Prabhadevi,Mumbai400025,India,CorporateIdentityNumberU74140MH2006FTC160634,Phone+912266169000,Fax+912266169001.GoldmanSachsmaybene?ciallyown1%ormoreofthesecurities(assuchtermisde?nedinclause2(h)theIndianSecuritiesContracts(Regulation)Act,1956)ofthesubjectcompanyorcompanies

referredtointhisresearchreport.Investmentinsecuritiesmarketaresubjecttomarketrisks.Readalltherelateddocumentscarefullybefore

investing.RegistrationgrantedbySEBIandcerti?cationfromNISMinnowayguaranteeperformanceoftheintermediaryorprovideanyassuranceofreturnstoinvestors.GoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimitedInvestorGrievanceE-mail:india-client-support@.ComplianceOf?cer:AnilRajput|Tel:+912266169000|Email:anil.m.rajput@.Japan:Seebelow.Korea:Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor

“professionalinvestors”withinthemeaningoftheFinancialServicesandCapitalMarketsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.Further

informationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch.NewZealand:GoldmanSachsNewZealandLimitedanditsaf?liatesareneither“registeredbanks”nor“deposittakers”(asde?nedintheReserveBankofNewZealandAct1989)inNewZealand.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedfor“wholesaleclients”(asde?nedintheFinancialAdvisersAct2008)unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsisavailableat:

/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Russia:ResearchreportsdistributedintheRussianFederationarenot

advertisingasde?nedintheRussianlegislation,butareinformationandanalysisnothavingproductpromotionastheirmainpurposeanddonot

provideappraisalwithinthemeaningoftheRussianlegislationonappraisalactivity.Researchreportsdonotconstituteapersonalizedinvestmentrecommendationasde?nedinRussianlawsandregulations,arenotaddressedtoaspeci?cclient,andarepreparedwithoutanalyzingthe?nancial

circumstances,investmentpro?lesorriskpro?lesofclients.GoldmanSachsassumesnoresponsibilityforanyinvestmentdecisionsthatmaybetakenbyaclientoranyotherpersonbasedonthisresearchreport.Singapore:GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W),whichisregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore,acceptslegalresponsibilityforthisresearch,andshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymatters

arisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,thisresearch.Taiwan:Thismaterialisforreferenceonlyandmustnotbereprintedwithoutpermission.Investorsshouldcarefullyconsidertheirowninvestmentrisk.Investmentresultsaretheresponsibilityoftheindividualinvestor.UnitedKingdom:PersonswhowouldbecategorizedasretailclientsintheUnitedKingdom,assuchtermisde?nedintherulesoftheFinancialConductAuthority,shouldreadthis

researchinconjunctionwithpriorGoldmanSachsresearchonthecoveredcompaniesreferredtohereinandshouldrefertotheriskwarningsthathavebeensenttothembyGoldmanSachsInternational.Acopyoftheseriskswarnings,andaglossaryofcertain?nancialtermsusedinthisreport,are

availablefromGoldmanSachsInternationalonrequest.

EuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoArticle6(2)oftheEuropeanCommissionDelegatedRegulation(EU)

24May20244

_

USDaily

GoldmanSachs

(2016/958)supplementingRegulation(EU)No596/2014oftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncil(includingasthatDelegatedRegulationis

implementedintoUnitedKingdomdomesticlawandregulationfollowingtheUnitedKingdom’sdeparturefromtheEuropeanUnionandtheEuropeanEconomicArea)withregardtoregulatorytechnicalstandardsforthetechnicalarrangementsforobjectivepresentationofinvestment

recommendationsorotherinformationrecommendingorsuggestinganinvestmentstrategyandfordisclosureofparticularinterestsorindicationsofcon?ictsofinterestisavailableat

/disclosures/europeanpolicy.htmlwhichstatestheEuropeanPolicyforManagingCon

?ictsof

InterestinConnectionwithInvestmentResearch.

Japan:GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.isaFinancialInstrumentDealerregisteredwiththeKantoFinancialBureauunderregistrationnumberKinsho69,andamemberofJapanSecuritiesDealersAssociation,FinancialFuturesAssociationofJapanTypeIIFinancialInstrumentsFirmsAssociation,The

InvestmentTrustsAssociation,Japan,andJapanInvestmentAdvisersAssociation.Salesandpurchaseofequitiesaresubjecttocommission

pre-determinedwithclientsplusconsumptiontax.Seecompany-speci?cdisclosuresastoanyapplicabledisclosuresrequiredbyJapanesestockexchanges,theJapaneseSecuritiesDealersAssociationortheJapaneseSecuritiesFinanceCompany.

Globalproduct;distributingentities

GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchproducesanddistributesresearchproductsforclientsofGoldmanSachsonaglobalbasis.AnalystsbasedinGoldmanSachsof?cesaroundtheworldproduceresearchonindustriesandcompanies,andresearchonmacroeconomics,currencies,commoditiesandportfoliostrategy.ThisresearchisdisseminatedinAustraliabyGoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd(ABN21006797897);inBrazilbyGoldmanSachsdoBrasilCorretoradeTítuloseValoresMobiliáriosS.A.;PublicCommunicationChannelGoldmanSachsBrazil:08007275764and/or

contatogoldmanbrasil@.AvailableWeekdays(exceptholidays),from9amto6pm.CanaldeComunica??ocomoPúblicoGoldmanSachsBrasil:08007275764e/oucontatogoldmanbrasil@.Horáriodefuncionamento:segunda-feiraàsexta-feira(excetoferiados),das9hàs18h;inCanadabyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC;inHongKongbyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.;inIndiabyGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLtd.;inJapanby

GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.;intheRepublicofKoreabyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch;inNewZealandbyGoldmanSachsNew

ZealandLimited;inRussiabyOOOGoldmanSachs;inSingaporebyGoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W);andinthe

UnitedStatesofAmericabyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC.GoldmanSachsInternationalhasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.

GoldmanSachsInternational(“GSI”),authorisedbythePrudentialRegulationAuthority(“PRA”)andregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthority(“FCA”)andthePRA,hasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.

EuropeanEconomicArea:GSI,authorisedbythePRAandregulatedbytheFCAandthePRA,disseminatesresearchinthefollowingjurisdictionswithintheEuropeanEconomicArea:theGrandDuchyofLuxembourg,Italy,theKingdomofBelgium,theKingdomofDenmark,theKingdomof

Norway,theRepublicofFinlandandtheRepublicofIreland;GSI-SuccursaledeParis(Parisbranch)whichisauthorisedbytheFrenchAutoritéde

contr?leprudentieletderesolution(“ACPR”)andregulatedbytheAutoritédecontr?leprudentieletderesolutionandtheAutoritédesmarches

?nanciers(“AMF”)disseminatesresearchinFrance;GSI-SucursalenEspa?a(Madridbranch)authorizedinSpainbytheComisiónNacionaldel

MercadodeValoresdisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSpain;GSI-SwedenBank?lial(Stockholmbranch)isauthorizedbytheSFSAasa“thirdcountrybranch”inaccordancewithChapter4,Section4oftheSwedishSecuritiesandMarketAct(Sw.lag(2007:528)omv?rdepappersmarknaden)

disseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSweden;GoldmanSachsBankEuropeSE(“GSBE”)isacreditinstitutionincorporatedinGermanyand,withintheSingleSupervisoryMechanism,subjecttodirectprudentialsupervisionbytheEuropeanCentralBankandinotherrespectssupervisedbyGermanFederalFinancialSupervisoryAuthority(BundesanstaltfürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht,BaFin)andDeutscheBundesbankanddisseminatesresearchintheFederalRepublicofGermanyandthosejurisdictionswithintheEuropeanEconomicAreawhereGSIisnotauthorisedtodisseminateresearch

andadditionally,GSBE,CopenhagenBranch?lialafGSBE,Tyskland,supervisedbytheDanishFinancialAuthoritydisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofDenmark;GSBE-SucursalenEspa?a(Madridbranch)subject(toalimitedextent)tolocalsupervisionbytheBankofSpaindisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSpain;GSBE-SuccursaleItalia(Milanbranch)totherelevantapplicableextent,subjecttolocalsupervisionbytheBankofItaly(Bancad’Italia)andtheItalianCompaniesandExchangeCommission(CommissioneNazionaleperleSocietàelaBorsa“Consob”)disseminatesresearchin

Italy;GSBE-SuccursaledeParis(Parisbranch),supervisedbytheAMFandbytheACPRdisseminatesresearchinFrance;andGSBE-SwedenBank?lial(Stockholmbranch),toalimitedextent,subjecttolocalsupervisionbytheSwedishFinancialSupervisoryAuthority(Finansinpektionen)disseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSweden.

Generaldisclosures

Thisresearchisforourclientsonly.OtherthandisclosuresrelatingtoGoldmanSachs,thisresearchisbasedoncurrentpublicinformationthatwe

considerreliable,butwedonotrepresentitisaccurateorcomplete,anditshouldnotbereliedonassuch.Theinformation,opinions,estimatesandforecastscontainedhereinareasofthedatehereofandaresubjecttochangewithoutpriornoti?cation.Weseektoupdateourresearchas

appropriate,butvariousregulationsmaypreventusfromdoingso.Otherthancertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasis,thelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateintheanalyst’sjudgment.

GoldmanSachsconductsaglobalfull-service,integratedinvestmentbanking,investmentmanagement,andbrokeragebusiness.WehaveinvestmentbankingandotherbusinessrelationshipswithasubstantialpercentageofthecompaniescoveredbyGlobalInvestmentResearch.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC,theUnitedStatesbrokerdealer,isamemberofSIPC().

Oursalespeople,traders,andotherprofessionalsmayprovideoralorwrittenmarketcommentaryortradingstrategiestoourclientsandprincipal

tradingdesksthatre?ectopinionsthatarecontrarytotheopinionsexpressedinthisresearch.Ourassetmanagementarea,principaltradingdesksandinvestingbusinessesmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearch.

Weandouraf?liates,of?cers,directors,andemployeeswillfromtimetotimehavelongorshortpositionsin,actasprincipalin,andbuyorsell,thesecuritiesorderivatives,ifany,referredtointhisresearch,unlessotherwiseprohibitedbyregulationorGoldmanSachspolicy.

TheviewsattributedtothirdpartypresentersatGoldmanSachsarrangedconferences,includingindividualsfromotherpartsofGoldmanSachs,donotnecessarilyre?ectthoseofGlobalInvestmentResearc