香港房地產行業(yè)市場前景及投資研究報告-培訓課件外文版2024.6恒大碧桂園萬達萬科

INDUSTRIES

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MARKETSRealestateinHongKongCHAPTER

01OverviewMostexpensiveresidentialpropertymarketsworldwidein2020(in1,000U.S.dollars)Mostexpensivehousingmarketsworldwide20201,4001,254.441,2001,0001,0008006004002000915.6905.83783.86763.5754.62717.58650.55646.03HongKongMunichSingaporeShanghaiShenzhenBeijingVancouverLosAngelesParisNewYork3Description:In2020,HongKonghadthemostexpensiveresidentialpropertymarketworldwide,withanaveragepropertypriceof1.25millionU.S.dollars.ThegovernmentofHongKongprovidepublichousingforlower-incomeresidentsandalmost45percentoftheHongKongpopulationlivedinpublicpermanenthousingin2018.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2020Source(s):CBREGroup;TatlerAsiaSizeofluxurypropertythatonemilliondollarscouldbuyinselectedcitiesworldwidein2023(insquaremeters)Sizeofluxurypropertyonemilliondollarscanbuyworldwide2023,bycitySizeinsquaremeters300102040506070MonacoAspen1620HongKongVerbier2228SingaporeSt.TropezLondon323233Geneva3434NewYorkLosAngelesParis3840ShanghaiSydney42434Description:Monacowastheleadingcityintermsofmostexpensiveluxuryrealestateworldwidein2023.Onemilliondollarscouldonlybuy16squaremetersofluxurypropertythere.InLondon,thesameamountofmoneycouldpurchase33squaremetersofluxuryrealestate.InTokyo,onemilliondollarswasenoughtobuy64squaremetersofprimerealestatein2023.?Luxuryrealestate–additionalinformationRealestateisconsideredoneof?thebestlong-terminvestments,anditcertainlyisoneof[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023Source(s):DouglasElliman;KnightFrankRealestatebubbleindexforselectedhousingmarketsworldwidein2023Globalrealestatebubblerisk2023Indexscore0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8ZurichTokyo1.711.65Miami1.38Munich1.35FrankfurtHongKongToronto1.271.241.21Geneva1.13LosAngelesLondon1.030.98TelAviv0.93VancouverAmsterdam0.810.85Description:In2023,Zurichwasthehousingmarketmostatrisk,witharealestatebubbleindexscoreof1.71.TokyoandMiamifollowedclosebehindwith1.65and1.38,respectively.Anymarketwithanindexscoreof1.5orhigherwasdeemedtobeabubbleriskzone.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023Source(s):UBSMediancaprateofgradeAofficesintheAsia-PacificregionasofSeptember2023,bycityandlocationGradeAofficecaprateinAPAC2023,bycityandlocationCaprateDecentrelised4Corelocations50123678910Bengaluru,IndiaMumbai,IndiaGurgaon,IndiaPerth,AustraliaBrisbane,AustraliaAuckland,NewZealandMelbourne,AustraliaSydney,AustraliaGuangzhou,ChinaShenzhen,ChinaBeijing,ChinaShanghai,China6/statistics/1234059/apac-grade-a-office-cap-rate-by-cityAccordingtoasurveyfrom2023,gradeAofficesinIndiancitiessuchasBengaluruandMumbaihadanaveragecaprateof8.5incorelocations.Incomparison,thecaprateofgradeAofficesinTaipeiwas2.4onaverageatcorelocationsin2023.

ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;October3to17,2023;investmentandvaluationprofessionalsSource(s):CBREGroupNumberofflatsinHongKongfrom2007to2023,bytypeofpermanenthousing(in1,000s)NumberofflatsinHongKong2007-2023,bytypeofpermanenthousingPublicpermanenthousingPrivatepermanenthousing3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005001,6831,6621,6411,6131,5751,5541,5371,4471,3641,30320231,25620201,27220211,28720221,20820171,22120181,24620191,11520071,151201207Description:AsofMarch2023,thestockofprivatehousingamountedto1.68millionflatsandthestockofpublicflatsexceeded1.3million.Ofthosepubliclysubsidizedflats,856thousandwererentalhousingand447thousandweresubsidizedsaleflats.ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;2007to2023Source(s):CensusandStatisticsDepartmentHongKong;HongKongHousingAuthorityDelinquencyratioofresidentialmortgagelendingbyauthorizedbankinginstitutionsinHongKongfrom2016to2023MortgagedelinquencyratioatauthorizedbankinginstitutionsinHongKong2016-20230.10.10.10.10.080.060.10.040.040.00.00.00.00.00.030.030.030.02201620172018201920202021202220238Description:InHongKong'sbankingsector,thedefaultrateonmortgagesisverylow.In2023,thedelinquencyratioofresidentialmortgagelendingbyauthorizedbankinginstitutionsstoodat0.08.Thevalueofissuedmortgagesexceeded1.86trillionHongKongdollars.ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;2016to2023Source(s):HKMADistributionofdomestichouseholdsinHongKongfrom2006to2022,bytypeofhousingDistributionofdomestichouseholdsinHongKong2006-2022,bytypeofhousingPublicpermanenthousingPrivatepermanenthousingTemporaryhousing120%100%80%60%40%20%0%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.9%0.7%0.8%0.8%0.6%0.7%53%52.4%53.4%53.7%53.7%53.8%53.8%53.9%53.4%46.7%200645.8%201145.6%201645.4%201745.4%201845.5%201946%46.3%202245.3%202020219Description:In2022,53percentofhouseholdslivedinprivatepermanenthousinginHongKong.46.3percentofhouseholdintheregiondependedonpublichousingforaccommodation.ThehighestrentsintheAPACregionmadethecommercialrentalmarketinaccessibleforalmosthalfofallhouseholds.ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;2006to2022Source(s):CensusandStatisticsDepartmentHongKong;HongKongHousingAuthorityCHAPTER

02ConstructionandpropertyratesNumberofrealestatedevelopmentprojectsinHongKongfrom2018to2022,bytypeNumberofrealestatedevelopmentprojectsinHongKong2018-2022,bytypePrivateresidentialpremisesOfficebuildingsHotelsandboardinghouses/multi-purposecommercialpremisesFlattedfactoryblocksandwarehouses3502030025020015010050165120224170141545183928333521621319816616202018201920202021202211Description:In2022,thenumberofprivateresidentialrealestatedevelopmentprojectsinHongKongamountedto198.Inthesameyearthenumberofofficerealestateprojectsreached28.

ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;2018to2022Source(s):CensusandStatisticsDepartmentHongKongNumberofnewapartmentsproducedinHongKongfrom2006to2022,bytypeofpermanenthousing(in1,000s)NumberofnewflatsproducedHongKong2006-2022bytypeofpermanenthousingPublicpermanenthousingPrivatepermanenthousing50454035213025201510515212118141491725221918161614144020062011201620172018201920202021202212/statistics/630018/hong-kong-flat-production-by-type-of-permanent-housingIn2022,thenumberofnewlyconstructedpublicpermanenthousinginHongKongamountedto19,000.Thenumberofnewlyconstructedprivatehousingamountedto21,000.MorepublicpermanenthousingstockswerebuiltinHongKongsince2020.ReadmoreNote(s):2006to2022Source(s):CensusandStatisticsDepartmentHongKong;HongKongHousingAuthorityTotalvalueofaggregatedrateablevaluesforpropertyinHongKongfromFY2015toFY2023(inbillionHongKongdollars)TotalvalueofaggregatedrateablevaluesforpropertyinHongKong2015-2023800735732696694691681700600500400300200100065464160920152016201720182019202020212022202313Description:AsofApril1stof2023,thetotalaggregatedrateablevalueforpropertyratesinHongKongamountedtoaround694billionHongKongdollars.RatesinHongKongisakindofpropertytax,whichischargedtotheownersofrentablepropertiesandcalculatedonthevaluationoftheRatingandValuationDepartmentofHongKong'sgovernment.ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;FY2015toFY2023Source(s):RVD(HongKong)GovernmentrevenuefrompropertyratesinHongKongfromFY2015toFY2023(inbillionHongKongdollars)GovernmentrevenuefrompropertyratesinHongKong2015-20232522.7322.2722.221.2520.9819.26201510519.0419.117.1702014-20152015-20162016-20172017-20182018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-202314Description:Forthefiscalperiod2022to2023,HongKong'sgovernmentrevenuefrompropertyratesamountedtoaround19billionHongKongdollars,significantlydecreasedfromthepreviousyear.RatesinHongKongisakindofpropertytax,whichischargedtotheownersofrentablepropertiesandcalculatedonthevaluationoftheRatingandValuationDepartmentofHongKong'sgovernment.ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;FY2015toFY2023Source(s):RVD(HongKong)TotalvalueofratingassessmentsforpropertyratesinHongKongasofApril2023,byregion(inbillionHongKongdollars)TotalvalueofassessmentsforpropertyratesinHongKongApril2023,byregionValueofratingassesmentsinbillionHongKongdollars050100150200250300NewTerritoriesHongKongIslandKowloon280.23213.46200.4115Description:AsofApril1stof2023,therewereover1.35millionratingassessmentsforpropertyratesinNewTerritories,withatotalvalueofaround280billionHongKongdollars.RatesinHongKongisakindofpropertytax,whichischargedtotheownersofrentablepropertiesandcalculatedonthevaluationoftheRatingandValuationDepartmentofHongKong'sgovernment.ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;April1,2023Source(s):RVD(HongKong)CHAPTER

03ResidentialrealestatesAveragepriceofprivatepermanenthousingflatsinHongKongfrom2006to2022,bydistrict(inHongKongdollarspersquaremeter)AveragepriceofprivatepermanenthousingHongKong2006-2022,bydistrictHongKongislandKowloonNewterritories600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,0000138,432162,208134,934160,736128,981132,273151,645123,261109,24193,896154,275147,625130,76456,48176,772114,46430,55335,44649,327186,3472021177,9282018183,3682019183,8782020173,3492022160,0222017139,536201699,4522011200617Description:In2022,theaveragepriceofpermanenthousinginHongKongIslanddroppedtoaround173thousandHongKongdollarspersquaremeteronaverage.Thecityhadthehighestpropertypricesintheregion.

ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;2006to2022Source(s):CensusandStatisticsDepartmentHongKong;HongKongHousingAuthorityNumberofsubsidized-saleflatsinHongKongfrom2012to2023(in1,000s)Subsidized-saleflatsinHongKong2012-2023500450448.6441.7429.8424.1418.8409403.1398.9396390.9391.6393.9400350300250200150100500201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023*18Description:Thisstatisticshowsthenumberofsubsidized-saleflatsinHongKongfrom2012to2023.AsofMarch2023,thenumberofsubsidized-saleflatsinHongKongamountedtoaround448,600units.ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;2012to2023;*AsofMarch2023.ReadmoreSource(s):NationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaDistributionofnewlyproducedprivatepermanenthousingapartmentsinHongKongfrom2006to2022,bydistrictPrivatepermanenthousingflatproductioninHongKong2006-2022bydistrictHongKongislandKowloonNewterritories120%100%80%60%40%20%0%46.4%47.7%53.9%36%54.3%37.6%55.8%27.8%58.5%24%61.5%26.9%62.9%21.7%71.8%16.9%74.3%18.9%17.5%201915.4%201616.4%201810.2%200611.3%201111.6%20228.2%20176.7%20205.9%202119/statistics/630210/hong-kong-private-permanent-housing-flat-production-distribution-by-districtIn2022,morethan61percentofnewlyproducedprivatepermanenthousinginHongKongwaslocatedintheNewTerritories.Overthepastyears,theNewTerritorieshadbeenapopularlocationfortheconstructionofnewhousinginthecity.

ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;2006to2022Source(s):CensusandStatisticsDepartmentHongKong;HongKongHousingAuthorityNumberofprivatehousingunitsinHongKongfrom2012to2023(inmillions)PrivatehousinginHongKong2012-20231.81.61.711.691.671.641.61.581.571.551.521.51.481.471.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023*20Description:ThisstatisticshowsthenumberofprivatehousingunitsinHongKongfrom2012to2023.AsofMarch2023,thenumberofprivatehousingunitsinHongKongamountedtomorethan1.7million.ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;2012to2023;*AsofMarch2023.Figureshavebeenrounded.ReadmoreSource(s):NationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaAveragemonthlyrentoftheprivateapartmentsinHongKongIslandin2ndquarter2023,bysize(inHongKongdollarspersquaremeter)MonthlyrentoftheprivateapartmentsinHongKongIslandQ22023,bysizeAveragerentinHongKongdollarspersquaremeter050100150200250300350400450500Lessthan40squaremeters40to69.9squaremeters70to99.9squaremeters100to159.9squaremeters160squaremetersorabove43737541442643621Description:Inthesecondquarterof2022,theaveragemonthlyrentofprivateapartmentsintheHongKongIslandregion,theheartofHongKong,wasbetween375and437HongKongdollarspersquaremeter.Meanwhile,themedianincomeforanindividualwas18thousandHongKongdollarspermonth.ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;Q22023Source(s):RVD(HongKong)DistributionofpublicrentalhousingapartmentsinHongKongasofMarch2023,byflatsizeDistributionofpublicrentalhousingflatsHongKong2023,byflatsizeLessthan20.0squaremeters13.3%Morethan40.0squaremeters16.2%20.0-29.9squaremeters24.0%30.0-39.9squaremeters47.1%22Description:AsofMarch2023,47percentofpublicrentalhousinginHongKonghadaflatsizebetween30and39squaremeters.Thatsizealsoaccountedforthehighestshareofpublicrentalhousinginthecity.Lessthan17percentofflatswerelargerthan40squaremeters.ReadmoreNote(s):March2023Source(s):CensusandStatisticsDepartmentHongKong;HongKongHousingAuthorityAveragemonthlyrentofpublicrentalhousinginHongKongfrom2007to2023,bydistrict(inHongKongdollarspersquaremeter)AveragemonthlyrentofpublicrentalhousinginHongKong2007-2023,bydistrictHongKongislandKowloonNewterritories25020015010050678466836783607560755468546843514049747475676761614846020072012201720182019202020212022202323Description:AsofMarch2023,theaveragemonthlyrentforpublicrentalhousinginHongKong'sNewTerritorieswas67HongKongdollarspersquaremeters.Thesetypeofapartmentswererent-controlledandthereforeweresignificantlycheaperthantheirprivatecounterparts.Forinstance,whereaspublichousingintheNewTerritoriescosts67HongKongdollarspersquaremeterpermonthonaverage,aprivateapartmentinthesamedistrictscosts257HongKongdollarpermonth.

ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;2007to2023Source(s):CensusandStatisticsDepartmentHongKong;HongKongHousingAuthorityNumberofpublicrentalhousingunitsinHongKongfrom2013to2023(in1,000s)PublicrentalhousinginHongKong2013-2023900852.08851.44841.32835.67828.14818.9802.13797.41782.24774.78776.3980070060050040030020010002013201420152016201720182019202020212022202324Description:ThisstatisticshowspublicrentalhousingnumbersinHongKongfrom2013to2023.In2023,thenumberofpublicrentalhousingunitsinHongKongamountedtoaround851,000.ReadmoreNote(s):China,HongKong;2013to2023Source(s):CensusandStatisticsDepartmentHongKongCHAPTER

04OfficerealestateGradeAofficespacestockinHongKongfrom2010to2022(inmillionsquaremeters)StockofgradeAofficerealestateinHongKong2010-2022988.468.168.18.027.787.67.397.187.0676.96.826.7476543210201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202226Description:ThetotalgradeAofficestockinHongKongin2022amountedtoalmost8.5millionsquaremeters.ThecityhadthemostexpensiveofficespaceamongmajorcitiesintheAsia-Pacificregion.ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;2010to2022Source(s):RVD(HongKong)RateofvacantgradeAofficespaceinHongKongfrom2010to2022VacancyrateofgradeAofficerealestateinHongKong2010-202216%14%15.1%12.5%11.8%12%10%8%9.6%9%8.7%8.5%8%7.8%7.2%6.6%6.4%6.1%20126%4%2%0%20102011201320142015201620172018201920202021202227Description:In2022,thevacancyrateofgradeAofficerealestateinHongKongsurpassed15percentwhichamountedtoalmost1.28millionsquaremeters.ThecityhadthemostexpensiveofficespaceamongmajorcitiesintheAsia-Pacificregion.

ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;2010to2022Source(s):RVD(HongKong)MonthlyaveragerentofgradeAofficespaceinHongKongfrom1stquarter2018to4thquarter2023,bydistrict(inHongKongdollarspersquaremeter)MonthlyrentforgradeAofficerealestateinHongKongQ12018-Q22023,bydistrictSheungWanTsimShaTsuiCentralYauMaTei/MongKokWanChai/CausewayBayKowloonBay/KwunTongNorthPoint/QuarryBay1,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q42018

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2023*28Description:Inthefourthquarterof2024,theaveragemonthlyrentforgradeAofficespaceinHongKong'sCentraldistrictamountedto995HongKongdollarspersquaremeter.Centralhadthemostexpensiveofficerealestateamongalldistrictsinthecity.ComparedtoothermajorcitiesintheAsia-Pacificregion,HongKonghadthehighestaveragerentforgradeAofficerealestate.ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;Q12018toQ42023;*Provisionalfigures.OneHongKongdollarequals0.13U.S.dollarsand0.12euros(asofApril2024).GradeArefersto:modernwithhighqualityfinishes;flexiblelayout;largefloorplates;spacious,well[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):RVD(HongKong)AreaofGradeBofficescompletedinHongKongfrom2016to2022withestimatesuntil2024(in1,000squaremeters)CompletionofGradeBofficesinHongKong2016-202460504030502321201820100151110120162017201820192020202120222023*2024*29Description:In2022,around50,000squaremetersofGradeBprivateofficeswerecompletedinHongKong,representingasignificantriseofalmost150percentfromthepreviousyear.TheestimatedcompletionoftheGradeBofficewilldropdramaticallyto15,000squaremetersin2023.ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;2016to2022;*Estimates.ReadmoreSource(s):RVD(HongKong)Take-upofGradeBofficesinHongKongfrom2016to2022(in1,000squaremeters)Take-upofGradeBofficesinHongKong2016-202240302010035-10-20-30-40-50-60-70-6-20-22-26-32-57201620172018201920202021202230/statistics/1304941/hong-kong-take-up-of-grade-b-officesIn2022,thetake-upofGradeBofficesinHongKongdisplayedadeclinetonegative32,000squaremeters,duetotheriseofvacancyto15.1percentoftheGradeBstock.From2016to2022,only2018sawapositivetake-upat35,000squaremeters.

ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;2016to2022Source(s):RVD(HongKong)CHAPTER

05LeadingdevelopersKeyperformanceindicators(KPIs)ofthelargestrealestateinvestmenttrustsbymarketcapinHongKongin2024KPIsofthelargestrealestateinvestmenttrusts(REITs)inHongKong2024Market

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doLinkRealEstateInvestmentTrustChampionRealEstateInvestmentTrustFortuneRealEstateInvestmentTrustYuexiuRealEstateInvestmentTrustHuiXianRealEstateInvestmentTrustLanghamHospitalityInvestmentsLtdSunlightRealEstateInvestmentTrustSpringRealEstateInvestmentTrustSFRealEstateInvestmentTrust11.211.260.960.620.580.380.360.360.240.23N/A44.35N/A3223740.35N/A2.768.52N/A18.6ProsperityRealEstateInvestmentTrustN/A32Description:LinkRealEstateInvestmentTrustwastherealestateinvestmenttrust(REIT)withthelargestmarketcapinHongKongasofApril11,2024.Themarketcap,ortheaggregatevalueofthetotaloutstandingsharesofthecompany,was11.2billionU.S.dollarsduringthatperiod.LinkRealEstateInvestmentTrustalsohadthehighestrevenueandthesecond-highestfive-yearreturnoninvestment(ROI)amongallcompaniesintheranking.Nevertheless,LanghamHospitalityInvestmentsLtdhad[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;April11,2024;companieslistedonthecountry'sstockexchangeSource(s):FinancialTimes;Refinitiv;VarioussourcesRevenueofSunHungKaiPropertiesfrom2009to2023(inbillionHongKongdollars)RevenueofSunHungKaiProperties2009-20231009091.1885.6485.385.2682.6578.2177.758075.171.268.466.7870605040302010062.5553.7934.23200933.212010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202333Description:Inthefiscalyearof2023,therevenueofSunHungKaiPropertiesamountedtoaround71billionHongKongdollars.ItwasoneofthelargestrealestatedevelopersinthecityandwascontrolledbytheKwokfamilytrustwhichwasinstalledbyKwokTak-Seng.Furthermore,SunHungKaiPropertiesconstructedthetallestbuildinginthecity,theInternationalCommerceCentre.ReadmoreNote(s):HongKong;FY2009toFY2023Source(s):SunHungKaiPropertiesRevenueofSwirePropertiesfrom2012to2023,bysegment(inmillionHongKongdollars)RevenueofSwireProperties2012-2023PropertyinvestmentPropertytradingHotels20,000