亞開(kāi)行-社會(huì)規(guī)范和早期生活事件對(duì)性別不平等的影響（英）

SOCIALNORMSANDTHEIMPACTOF

EARLYLIFEEVENTS

ONGENDERINEQUALITY

WeiLuo,WeiHuang,andAlbertPark

NO.738

ADBECONOMICS

August2024

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ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK

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SocialNormsandtheImpactofEarlyLifeEventsonGenderInequality

WeiLuo,WeiHuang,andAlbertParkNo.738|August2024

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ABSTRACT

WestudytheinfluenceofsocialnormsindeterminingtheimpactofearlylifeexposuretotheGreatChineseFamineof1959–1961ongenderinequality.Wemodelhowsocialnormsinteractwithadverseshockstoaffectmaleandfemalesurvivalchancesandinfluencesubsequenthumancapitalinvestments.WetestthesepredictionsempiricallybyusingtheFifthNationalPopulationCensusofthePeople’sRepublicofChinain2000thathasinformationonbirthplaceandestimateadifference-in-differencesmodelthatcombinescohortandregionalvariationinexposuretothefaminewithregionalvariationinthecultureofsonpreference.Wefindthatsonpreferencebuffersthenegativeimpactofintrauterinefamineshocksoncohortmale-to-femalesexratiosandreducesfamine’simpactongenderinequalityinhealthandeducation.

Keywords:famine,sonpreference,sexratios,humancapitalinvestment

JELcodes:J13,J16,I24,I26

WethankDouglasAlmond,LiHan,JamesKai-singKung,KatherineMeckel,AdrianaLleras-Muney,JinWang,LingweiWu,andJaneZhang,aswellasseminarparticipantsatUCLA,HKUST,RoyalEconomicSocietyAnnualMeeting,andEEAAnnualCongressfortheirhelpfulcomments.Allremainingerrorsareourown.Thispaperwaspreviouslytitled“Earlylifeadverseshocks,sonpreferenceandgenderinequalitiesinlaterlife.”

1.Introduction

Previousliteraturehasprovidedwell-documentedevidenceonthelong-runimpactofprenatalevents(Barker1992,Caseetal.2005,Almond2006,MacciniandYang2009,AlmondandCurrie2011,CurrieandVogl2013,Nilsson2017).Thislinkoftenisnotgender-neutral,butempiricalfindingsaremixedonwhichgenderismoreaffectedbyprenatalevents.Bothbiologicalandeconomicstudiesshowthatmalefetusesandbabiesaremorevulnerabletoearlylifeevents(Kraemer2000,Cameron2004,AlmondandMazumder2011,Dinkelman2017,Nilsson2017),whileothersfindthatgirlsaremoreaffected(Pathania2007,MacciniandYang2009,Shi2011).Ofinterest,mostresearchthatfindsgirlsaremoreresponsivetoearlylifeeventsareinAsiansettings(Pathania2007,MacciniandYang2009,Shi2011,Cuietal.2020).

AbundantliteratureprovidesevidencethatculturalpreferencesfavoringsonscontributetogenderdisparitiesinhealthoutcomesandmortalityratesinAsiancountries,suchasthePeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC)andIndia(Gupta1987,Chenetal.2007,Bhalotraetal.2010,JayachandranandKuziemko2011,JayachandranandPande2017).Therefore,comparinggenderdifferencesinthelong-runimpactofprenataleventsindependentoftheculturalsettingmaybeproblematic.Emergingliteraturepointsoutthatgenderdifferencesintheimpactofearlylifeeventsarecontext-specific.Forexample,Dinkelman(2017)mentionedthatherfindingthatlocalenvironmentalshockshaveamorenegativeimpactonmalesinSouthAfricaisquitedifferentfrommostfindingsinAsiansettings,anditseemslikelythatdifferencesinsonpreferenceacrossthesecontinentscouldcontributetothesedifferences.Besides,growingliteraturerecognizesthatshocks,investments,andinterventionscaninteractincomplexways(Almondetal.2018,Duqueetal.2018).Inthispaper,westudytheextenttowhichsocialnormsinfluencegenderdisparitiesinthelong-runimpactofearlylifeevents.

Westudythelong-runimpactofearlylifeeventsandtheirinteractionwithsocialnormsinthecontextofperhapsthemostseverefamineinhumanhistory,theGreatChineseFamineof1959–1961(henceforth,theGreatFamine),whichstruckprovincesinthePRCunexpectedlyandwithlargeregionalvariationsindeathrates.During1959–1961,agriculturalproductiondroppedsharply,andtheestimateddailyavailablefoodenergyfellbelowtheminimumfoodenergyrequirement(Ashtonetal.1992,LinandYang2000).Theprolongedfaminecausedanunprecedentednumberofdeaths.Nationaldeathrateswere14.6,25.4,and14.2perthousandin1959,1960,and1961,comparedto11.4,10.8,and12.0perthousandintheprevious3years

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(1956–1958).1TheChinesecentralgovernmenteventuallyrecognizedtheseverityofthefamineandmoderateditspolicies,includingreducingthetransferofgrainfromruralareastourbanareasandsendingmillionsofpeoplebacktothecountrysidetoboostagriculturalproduction(Liand

Yang2005).Bytheendof1961,deathratesbegantoreturntothepre-1959levelinoverhalfoftheprovinces,andbirthratesstartedtorebound.

AlthoughtheGreatFaminewasnationalinscope,thefamineintensityvariedsignificantlyacrossprovinces(Ashtonetal.1992,LinandYang2000,ChenandZhou2007,Mengetal.2015).Figure1displaysthegeographicalvariationoffamineintensitybymappingtheprovincialdeathratein1960,theworstyearofthefamineintermsoffatalities.ProvincesincentralPRC,suchasHenanandAnhui,andsomesouthwesternprovinces,wereseverelyaffectedbythefamine,whilethenortheasternprovinceswerelessseverelyimpacted.TheGreatFaminegeneratedplausiblyexogenousadverseshocksofvaryingmagnitudetopeoplelivingindifferentregions.

Accordingtorichliterature,thecultureofsonpreferenceisdeeplyrootedandpersistentinthePRC(DasGuptaetal.2003,Guilmoto2009).Thistraditionemphasizestheimportanceofcontinuingthefamilylinethroughthemaleoffspring,therebyreinforcingmaledominancewithinahousehold(Murphyetal.2011).Thecultureofsonpreferencehasprofoundlyshapedchildbearingandchild-rearingbehaviorinthePRC(Yietal.1993,Chenetal.2007).Onemanifestationofsonpreferenceissex-selectionpractices,whichmaybeperformedeitherprenatallyorpostnatally.Forexample,femaleinfanticide,theneglectofbabygirls,andthepreferentialallocationofhouseholdresourcestosonscanallbecategorizedaspostnatalsex-selectionstrategies.

TheculturalpreferenceforsonsisnotonlydeeplyrootedinthehistoryofthePRCbutalsocharacterizedbyobviousandremarkableregionaldifferences.Male-to-femalesexratiosofnewbornbabiesoryoungcohortsareoftenusedasaproxyforthecultureofsonpreference(ArnoldandLiu1986,ParkandCho1995,Edlund1999,JayachandranandKuziemko2011).InFigure2,wedescribethegeographicdistributionofmale-to-femalesexratiosofcohortsaged0–10intheFirstNationalPopulationCensusofthePRCin1953(henceforth,the1953populationcensus).Thefigureshowsthatsouthernprovinces,suchasGuangdongandFujian,andprovincesincentralPRC,suchasAnhuiandJiangxi,havehigherlevelsofsonpreference.Comparingthismapwiththegeographicdistributionoffamineintensityrevealsthatthetwoare

1ThenationaldeathrateduringthefamineperiodisfromtheStatisticalYearbookpublishedbytheNationalBureauofStatisticsofChina.TheGreatChineseFamineismoreseverecomparedtothathappeninginGreece(NeelsenandStratmann2011)andtheNetherlands(Scholteetal.2015).Forexample,thepeakmortalityrateoftheDutchfaminewasaround15perthousandpeople,muchlowerthanthepeakmortalityof25.4perthousandpeopleduringtheGreatChineseFamine.

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notsignificantlyspatiallycorrelated.Infact,thecorrelationcoefficientbetweentheprovincialdeathratein1960andsexratios(malestofemales)ofcohortsaged0–10inthe1953populationcensusisonly0.116.

OurtheoreticalmodelextendsBozzolietal.(2009)andValente(2015)anddevelopsanuancedandunifiedframeworkto:(i)showintrauterineadversecircumstances(famineexposure)andgender-specificpostnatalinvestments(causedbysonpreference)generatemortalityselection;(ii)linktheselectioneffecttoindividuals’outcomesinadulthood,includingheight(expectedhealth)andyearsofeducation(humancapital);(iii)introducethedimensionofgenderandinvestigatehowgenderinequalityisshaped.Specifically,wepositthatparents’unequalallocationofresourcesacrosschildren,asaresultofsonpreference,especiallyunderadversecircumstances,increasestherelativesurvivalchancesofmalesversusfemales,leadingtoanincreaseincohortmale-to-femalesexratios.Thisphenomenonmitigatestheeffectoffamineshocksongendergapsinhealthandaltersitsinfluenceonthegendergapineducationalattainment.

Totestourpredictionsaboutthelong-runconsequencesofintrauterinefamineshockanditsinteractingeffectwithgendernorms,weassembledatafromseveralsources.WecollectcohortinformationongenderinequalitiesfromtheFifthNationalPopulationCensusofthePRCin2000(henceforth,the2000populationcensus)andthe2010ChinaFamilyPanelSurvey(CFPS).Theadvantageofusingthe2000populationcensusisthatitprovidesinformationonindividuals’birthplace,enablingustopreciselyidentifyfamineseverityreceivedinuteroandalleviatetheconcernaboutmigration.Inaddition,wegatherdetailedprovince-leveldeathratesfromtheComprehensiveStatisticalDataandMaterialson50YearsofNewChina,whichiscompiledbytheNationalBureauofStatisticsofChina.Atlast,wecollectinformationontheregionalcultureofsonpreferencefrompre-famineCensusdata(the1953populationcensus).Ouranalysisadoptsageneralizeddifference-in-differencesapproachtoestimatethecausallinkages.Thatis,ouridentificationstrategyisbasedonregionalandcohortvariationinfamineseverityreceivedwheninuterotogetherwithpre-famineregionalvariationinthecultureofsonpreference.

Wefindthateventhoughintrauterinefamineshockscontributetoareductioninmale-to-femalesexratiosingender-neutralareas,thereductioninsexratiosinducedbythefamineshockinprovinceswithsonpreferenceismuchsmallercomparedtothatingender-neutralprovinces,consistentwithourtheoreticalpredictionsonsurvivalchances.Thedifferenceintheimpactoffamineonsexratiosinareaswithsonpreferenceandgender-neutralareasassociatedwithaonestandarddeviationincreaseinfamineseverityaccountsfor1.89%ofthemeancohortsexratio(or15.26%ofthestandarddeviation).Moreover,weobservethatintrauterinefamineshocks

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increasethegendergapinheightingender-neutralareas.However,thegendergapinheightgeneratedbythefamineshockisnarrowerinareaswithsonpreference,consistentwithourtheoreticalpredictions.Finally,weshowthatintrauterinefamineshocksincreasethegendergapinyearsofeducationingender-neutralareas,butthisislesstrueinareaswithacultureofsonpreference.Thechangeinthegendergapinyearsofeducationinresponsetoaonestandarddeviationincreaseinfamineseverityinareaswithsonpreferenceaccountsfor6.41%ofthemean(or9.46%ofthestandarddeviation).Wealsoillustratethatourfindingsoneducationgobeyondamechanicalchangeinsurvivors’health.

Toaddressconcernsrelatedtoselectivefertilityduringthefamine,weutilizebirthmonthtocapturethetimingofpregnancyandshowourresultsarenotdrivenbyselectivefertilityinresponsetothefamine.Ouranalysisisalsorobusttotheinclusionofrichpre-famineregionalcontrolsandrigorousfixedeffects.Wevalidateourmeasureofsonpreferencebyshowingnocorrelationwithpre-faminelocalconditionsandcross-validateitacrossmultiplealternativemeasures.Importantly,consistentfindingspersistwhenusingalternativemeasures.Furthermore,ourresultspassseveralrobustnesstests,includingusingalternativesamplerestrictionsandalternativemeasuresoffamineexposure,controllingfortheimpactsoftheChineseCivilWar(1927-1949),theCulturalRevolution(1966-1977),andfamineexposurereceivedthefirstyearoflife,andaplacebotest.

Ourresearchcontributestotheliteratureonthelong-runimpactofearlylifeevents.2Previousresearchstudiesonthelong-runeffectofearlylifeeventshavediscussedtheselectioneffecttosomeextent(NeelsenandStratmann2011,CurrieandVogl2013,Scholteetal.2015,andAlmondetal.2018).However,theselectioneffectofearly-lifeadverseshocksremainedunproven.Valente(2015)linkedmortalityselectioninuteroandhealthatbirth,butdidnotconsiderthelong-runoutcomes.Inaddition,asnotedearlier,genderisanimportantdimensionwhenconsideringhealthoutcomes.3Priorresearchhasemphasizedthatthelastingimpactofearlylifeeventsonsurvivorsplayoutdifferentlybygender(Almondetal.2007,Dinkelman2017,Nilsson2017),especiallyinAsiancontexts(Feenyetal.2021,SivadasanandWu2021,Wuetal.2023).Thefirstandmostimportantcontributionofourpaperistoprovideaformalinvestigationofthegender-specificselectioneffectofadverselifeeventsrelatedtosocialnorms.

2Forageneralreviewofearly-lifecircumstancesandadultoutcomes,seeCurrieandVogl(2013)andAlmondetal.

(2018).

3Forexample,Leietal.(2012)demonstratesignificantgenderdifferencesincognitiveabilityamongolderChinesepeople.Inaddition,evidencefromdevelopedsocietiesalsoshowsconsiderablegenderdisparitiesinmentalandphysicalhealthconditions(McDonoughandWalters2001,Dentonetal.2004).

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Specifically,ourtheoreticalmodelextendsBozzolietal.(2009)andValente(2015)withamoreintricateperspectiveandstandsoutbyprovidingacomprehensiveframeworktounderstandthegender-specificselectioneffectofearly-lifeadverseshockstothelong-rungenderinequalityinsurvivors’outcomes.Furthermore,ourempiricalfindingsnotonlycorroborateourmodelbutalsoalignwithresearchintotheinterplaybetweenearly-lifeadversitiesandsubsequenthumancapitalinvestmentsusingquasi-naturalexperiments(Gunnsteinssonetal.2014,Rossin-SlateandWust2020,Duqueetal.2021).Ourfindingsalsoholdsignificantpolicyrelevancetoalleviatetheenduringimpactsofrepercussionsofeventslikethecoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)pandemiconnewborns.Theneedfortargetedinterventions,includingsocialsafetynetsaddressinggender-specificvulnerabilitiesfromearly-lifeshocksandmaternalandchildhealthprogramstailoredtothewell-beingofpregnantwomenandfemaleinfants,becomesevident.

OurpaperalsorelatestotheliteratureonthelastingimpactoftheGreatFamine.Previousresearchhasdocumentedsignificanteffectsofearlylifeexposuretofamineonadultoutcomesofsurvivors,intermsofeducationalattainment,labormarketoutcomes,andhealth(Luoetal.2006,Almondetal.2007,ChenandZhou2007,MengandQian2009,Shi2011,MuandZhang2011,Cuietal.2020).However.veryfewstudiesfocusonhowtheseadverseshocksshapedinequality(JohnsonandJackson2019),especiallyregardingthedimensionofgender.MuandZhang(2011)findbetterhealthamongfemalefaminesurvivors.Cuietal.(2020)documentedsizablegenderdisparitiesincognitiveabilitiesamongtheChineseelderlywhosufferedfromearly-lifehungerexperience.Butnopaperssystematicallyinvestigatetheimpactofearly-lifefamineexposureonthegendergap.Ourpaperfillsthegapbypresentingcausalevidencethatintrauterinefamineexposureshapesgenderinequalities(gaps)insurvivalchances,healthoutcomes,andeducationalattainmentinlaterlife.

Ourcontributioncanalsobesituatedrelativetotheliteratureonsonpreferenceandthe“missinggirls”phenomenon(Gupta1987,Sen1990,Yietal.1993,DasGuptaetal.2003,Ebenstein2010).Ourfindingsextendtheliteratureontheimpactofsonpreferenceongenderdisparitiesinmortality(Chenetal.2007,Bhalotraetal.2010)andhealthoutcomes(JayachandranandPande2017)byshowingthatthisimpactisexacerbatedbyadverseshocksandresultsinunintendedconsequencesforlater-lifegenderinequality.

Therestofthispaperisstructuredasfollows.Thenextsectionpresentsthetheoreticalframework.Section3describesthedataandvariables.Section4introducesouridentificationstrategy.Insection5,wepresentourempiricalfindings.Section6presentsrobustnesschecks.Finally,weconcludeinsection7.

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2.TheoreticalFramework

2.1.Overview

Wedevelopasimplemodeltoshowthatadverseshocksnegativelyinfluenceindividuals’survivalchances.Sonpreferencemitigatestheeffectofadverseshocksonmalesurvivalchancesbyshiftingtheeffectivesurvivalthreshold.Italterstheeffectofadverseshocksongendergapsinhealthandeducationalattainmentinlaterlife.Ourmodeldistinguishestheintrauterineperiodandtheinfancyandearlychildhoodstages.AsillustratedinFigure3,childrenareexposedtofamineshocksinutero.Assexselectiontechnologyisunavailableduringthatperiod(Chenetal.2013),parentsmakegenderdifferentialinvestmentsonlyafterobservingthechild’ssex(duringinfancyandearlychildhood).

2.2.SetupoftheModel

Initialendowmentdistributions.Initialhealthendowmentsofindividuali(?i)areassumedtobedistributedwithadensityfunctionoff(?i)andacumulativedistributionfunction(CDF

henceforth)ofF(?i).WesupposetheCDFofhealthendowmentF(?i)satisfiesthatF//(?i)>0

overtheintervalI(strictlyconvexontheintervalI).Inaddition,thedensityfunctionofhealthendowmentf(?i)(orthefirstderivativeofhealthendowmentCDFF/(?i))isalwayspositive.Ourmodelassumptionholdsbroadapplicabilityacrossarangeofdistributionscommonlyencounteredinvariousfields.4Forinstance,richempiricalevidenceineconomicsandbiologysupportsthenormaldistributionofhumanheightandweight(TannerandTanner1981,WachterandTrussell1982,Steckel1995),whichservesasanexampleofthehealthdistributionthatmeetsthespecifiedproperties.

Accordingtobiologicalliterature(AnderssonandBergstrom1998,Kraemer2000),boysarenaturallyweakerandmorevulnerablethangirls.Weusesubscriptstodenoteboys(b)andgirls(g)andassumethatthedistributionofboys’endowmentsliesslightlytotheleftofthatofgirls(CatalanoandBruckner2006,MuandZhang2011).5Inotherwords,wehave?ig=?ib+Δ?,whereΔ?>0.

4Itisimportanttonotethattheconvexityassumptioninourmodelextendsbeyondjustthenormaldistribution.Forexample,thechi-squaredistributionandWeibulldistributionalsosatisfythesepropertieswithinspecificinterval.However,it'sworthmentioningthatcertaindistributions,suchastheexponentialandParetodistributions,donotadheretotheconvexityassumption.

5Thephenomenonthattheinfantmortalityofboysishigherthangirlscanbemodeledintwoways:(i)thehealthendowmentofboysandgirlsaredifferent(weakerboys),andthesurvivalthresholdisuniform;or(ii)healthdistributionsareuniform,butboyshaveahighersurvivalthreshold.Previousstudiesinbiologyandeconomicsdocumentthatfemalesmayhavebetterhealthendowmentsthanmales(CatalanoandBruckner2006,MuandZhang2011)andsupportthefirstone.

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Postnatalinvestmentandsonpreference.Gender-specificpostnatalinvestmentispurelydeterminedbysonpreferenceθiandisassumedtodecreaseeffectivesurvivalthresholds.Wewilldefinetheeffectivesurvivalthresholdinthenexttwoparagraphs.Weusesuperscriptsnandptodenotetwosocialnorms-gender-neutral(n)andsonpreference(p).Wefirstdefinethatin

gender-neutralareas,preferencesareequalforboysandgirls,thatis,θ=θ.Forboys,we

explicitlypresentthenecessaryassumptionthatsonpreferenceisgreaterinareaswithson

preferencethaningender-neutralareas,θ>θ.Similarly,forgirls,wepresenttheassumption

thatwillingnesstoinvestingirlsisgreateringender-neutralareasthaninareaswithson

preference,θ>θ.Itthenfollowsthatθ>θinareaswithsonpreference.6

Famineshocks.Adversityreceivedinutero(negativehealthshock)mayshifttheentirehealthendowmentdistributiontotheleft,increasethemortalityrate,andreducethehealthparametersamongsurvivors(thescarringeffect).Ontheotherhand,anintrauterineadverseenvironmentmayshiftthesurvivalthresholdtotherightandrequireahigherhealthendowmenttosurvive.Theincreasedsurvivalthresholdraisesthemortalityratewhileresultinginapositiveselectioninsurvivors’healthparameters,so-calledthecullingeffect(seeCatalanoandBruckner

(2006)andValente(2015)foracomprehensivediscussionofbothmechanisms).Inourmodel,weassumeintrauterineexposuretofamineshocksincreasetheeffectivesurvivalthresholdsby?μofbothgenders.7

Survivalchances.Wedefinethatthebiologicalsurvivalthresholdzisthesurvivalthresholdundernaturalconditionsandisthesameforbothgenders.Asthedistributionofboys’endowmentsliesslightlytotheleftofthatofgirls,boysarelesslikelytosurviveundernaturalconditions.Inaddition,weintroducetheeffectivesurvivalthresholdthataccountsfortheeffectoffamineshockandpostnatalinvestments.Theeffectivesurvivalthresholdequalsthebiologicalsurvivalthresholdzplustheeffectofintrauterinefamineshock(?μ)minustheeffectofpostnatalinvestment(θi).Individualssurviveiftheendowmentdrawishighenough,giventheeffectivesurvivalthresholdZ,whereZ∈I.Forsimplicity,wedecomposetheeffectivesurvivalthreshold

intotwoparts:gender-specificsurvivalthresholdsaccountingforpostnatalinvestmentsz(equal

6Althoughwerecognizethathealthendowmentswillinfluencehealthinvestmentsaswellaseducationalinvestments,wedonotincludehealthinvestmentsinthemodelexplicitlybecausedoingsowouldnotchangethequalitativepredictionsofthemodelaslongasgenderdifferencesinthenegativeimpactofthefamineonhealthendowmentsarenotfullyoffsetbycompensatinghealthinvestments,butaddinghealthinvestmentswouldmakethemodelmuchlesstractable.

7Assumingfamineshocksreducethehealthendowmentorincreasethesurvivalthresholdwillnotalterourpredictionsongendergapsinsurvivalchances,observedhealth,andeducation.However,itwillchangeourpredictionsontheexpectedhealthandeducationofsurvivors.

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toz-θi)andtheeffectoffamineshock(?μ).Thesurvivalchance(sri)isdefinedinequation1.Thesurvivalprobabilitiesfornon-exposedcohortscanbeobtainedbyequating?μto0.

sr(?i|?i>Z)=1?F(Z)(1)

Thehealthofsurvivors.Survivors’expectedhealthcanbeviewedastheexpectationofadistributionofhealthendowmenttruncatedbytheeffectivesurvivalthresholdinequation2.

Here,g(.)denotesthetruncateddensityfunctionofhealth,g(?i)=f(?i)??i>Zandg(?i)=0

otherwise.Forsimplicity,weletλrepresent.Wesupposeλ/>0andλ/′

0overtheintervalIforanyZ∈I.Forexample,theexpectationofatru