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29August2024|1:42AMHKT
KanzhunLtd.(BZ)
阝uv
EarningsReview:Intactuserpenetration/marginupsidestory,yetloweredrevenueoutlookontop-downmonetizationpressure;Buy
BZ12mPriceTarget:$19.40Price:$13.94Upside:39.2%
Kanzhun’ssharepricecorrectedsharplybyc.-20%(vs.KWEB-3%)postitslargelyin-line2Q24results(FirstTake),withthe2024EP/Emultiplecontractingfrom17xtoc.13xagainstlargelyunchanged
EPS,or10x2024EEV/FCF.Wethinktheweaknesswasmostlyduetosofter3Q24revenueguidanceof19%yoyatthemidpoint,whichfalls2-3%belowGSeandVisibleAlphaconsensuslikelyresulting
from1)softercashbillingsin3Q24Eand2)mixshiftofcashbillingsbetweenSMEsandlargeenterpriseswhichleadstoalonger
revenuerecognitionperiodonaverage.
Admittedly,China’sdeterioratedmacroenvironmenthasweighed
onmonetizationcapabilitiesofKanzhuninthatenterpriseusers’
willingnesstopaytorecruittalents(especiallyamongSMEsandforwhite-collarjobs)isloweredagainstalooserjobmarketplace.We
thinkthesharepricereactionmayhavebeenoverdonegiven1)stillrapidusergrowthe.g.total/enterpriseMAUs+25%/17%yoyin2Q24,asoneofthefastestgrowingChinainternetplatformsintermsofuserpenetration;2)highoperatingleveragewithclearmarketingexpensesavingsandmanagementcommitmentto
_
R&D/G&Aexpensecontrol;wekeep2024Enetpro?tforecastsatRmb2.6bn+largelyunchangedandmanagementreiterated2024Enon-GAAPoperatingpro?tguidanceatRmb2.3bn;3)potentialtotapintonewlegsofgrowthleveragingitsindustry-leading
recommendationandmatchingalgorithms,includingblue-collar
manufacturingandoverseasmarketse.g.blue-collarmanufacturingfocusedHailuoProjectamountingtoc.Rmb45mnor2%ofrevenuein2Q24,andpossiblesynergieswiththeearlieracquiredW.D.(to
bedisclosednextquarteraspermanagement);4)shareholder
returncommitmentleadingto4-6%shareholderreturnyieldp.a.,outofwhich4%isbasedontheUS$200mnrepurchase
programwiththecurrentrunrate(c.US$88mnbuybacksinceMar)
TimothyZhao
+852-2978-2673|timothy.zhao@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.
RonaldKeung,CFA
+852-2978-0856|ronald.keung@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.
EuniceLiu
+852-2978-7472|eunice.liu@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.
KeyData
Marketcap:$6.4bnEnterprisevalue:$4.3bn3mADTV:$66.2mn
chinachinalnternetVerticals
M&ARank:3Leasesincl.innetdebt&EV?:yes
GSForecast
Revenue(Rmbmn)New
Revenue(Rmbmn)OldEBITDA(Rmbmn)
EPS(Rmb)New
EPS(Rmb)Old
P/E(X)P/B(X)
Dividendyield(%)CROCI(%)
EPS(Rmb)
12/235,952.0
5,952.01,896.7
4.78
4.7825.8 4.1NM35.0
3/24
1.18
12/24E7,398.1
7,512.12,677.8
5.76
5.7817.2 2.8NM30.7
6/24
1.57
12/25E8,482.9
8,929.53,373.5
6.75
7.0014.7 2.4NM33.6
9/24E
1.45
12/26E9,403.0
10,232.93,780.2
7.41
8.0613.4 2.1NM35.2
12/24E
1.56
GSFactorPro?le
Growth
FinancialReturns
Multiple
Integrated
percentile20th40th60th80th100th
BZrelativetoAsiaex.JapancoverageBZrelativetochinalnternetVerticals
Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimates.Seedisclosuresfordetails.
GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,
investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveacon?ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthis
report.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto
/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaf?liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.
GoldmanSachs
KanzhunLtd.(BZ)
阝uvRatingsinceNov14,2022
Ratios&Valuation
P/E(X)P/B(X)
FCFyield(%)
EV/EBITDAR(X)
EV/EBITDA(excl.leases)(X)CROCI(%)
ROE(%)
Netdebt/equity(%)
Netdebt/equity(excl.leases)(%)Interestcover(X)
Daysinventoryoutst,salesReceivabledays
DayspayableoutstandingDuPontROE(%)
Turnover(X)Leverage(X)
Grosscashinvested(excash)(Rmb)Averagecapitalemployed(Rmb)
BVPS(Rmb)
12/23
25.8 4.1 3.9 21.5 21.3 35.0 17.2(96.1)
(98.2)
0.8146.7 16.10.3
1.39,312.26,422.629.75
12/24E
17.2 2.8 5.2 10.9 10.7 30.7 18.0(93.0)
(95.5)
1.4173.8 16.5 0.41.3
10,409.911,259.434.92
12/25E
14.7 2.4 6.8 7.9 7.7 33.6 17.8(93.7)
(96.0)
1.9146.0 16.3 0.31.3
10,979.911,603.041.31
12/26E
13.4 2.1 7.9 6.2 6.135.2 16.6(95.1)
(97.1)
1.9146.215.3
0.3 1.311,400.2
,
11598.6
48.37
Growth&Margins(%)
12/2312/24E12/25E12/26E
Totalrevenuegrowth
EBITDAgrowthEPSgrowth
DPSgrowth
EBITmargin
EBITDAmargin
Netincomemargin
10.812.1 9.7NM34.940.236.9
31.9169.9170.0 NM27.531.936.2
14.726.017.2NM34.539.837.0
24.3 41.2 20.6(100.0) 31.4 36.235.8
PricePerformance
BZ($)
25.0
22.5
20.0
17.5
15.0
12.5
NASDAQComposite
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
Apr-24
3m
(34.3)%(37.4)%
Jul-24
Oct-23Jan-24
12m(2.5)%
(25.4)%
Absolute
Rel.totheNASDAQComposite
6m(10.6)%(19.3)%
Source:FactSet.Priceasof27Aug2024close.
KanzhunLtd.(BZ)
IncomeStatement(Rmbmn)
12/2312/24E12/25E12/26E
Totalrevenue
costofgoodssoldSG&A
R&D
otheroperatinginc./(exp.)EBITDA
Depreciation&amortizationEBIT
Netinterestinc./(exp.)
lncome/(loss)fromassociates
Pfit
provisionfortaxesMinorityinterest
preferreddividends
Net。inc.。(pre-exceptionaIs)post-taxexceptionals
Net。inc.。(post-exceptionaIs)
EPS。(basic,。pre-except)。(Rmb)
EPS。(diIuted,。pre-except)。(Rmb)EPS。(basic,。post-except)。(Rmb)EPS。(diIuted,。post-except)。(Rmb)DpS(Rmb)
Div.payoutratio(%)
5,952.0(1,013.5)(2,211.2)(1,124.8) 35.4 1,896.7 (258.8) 1,637.9259.4
--
2,278.8(122.6)
--
--
2,156.2(1,057.0)
1,099.2
4.964.782.532.440.6513.1
7,398.1(1,195.9)(2,542.5)(1,370.9) 31.12,677.8(357.9)
2,319.9216.6
--
2,934.7(301.4)
16.7
--
2,650.0(1,192.1)
1,457.9
5.985.763.293.17
--
0.0
8,482.9(1,348.5)(2,734.7)(1,506.3)
31.13,373.5 (448.9)
2,924.6263.4
--
3,553.2(426.4)
10.0
--
3,136.9(950.3)
2,186.5
7.006.754.884.71
--
0.0
9,403.0(1,491.1)(3,034.8)(1,624.3)
31.13,780.2 (496.3)
3,283.9306.9
--
3,956.1
(494.5)
6.0
--
3,467.6(852.3)
2,615.37.677.415.785.59
--
0.0
BalanceSheet(Rmbmn)
12/2312/24E12/25E12/26E
cash&cashequivalentsAccountsreceivable
lnventory
othercurrentassets
Totalcurrentassets
NetPP&E
Netintangibles
Totalinvestments
otherlong-termassets
Totalassets
Accountspayableshort-termdebt
short-termleaseliabilitiesothercurrentliabilities
Totalcurrentliabilities
Long-termdebt
Long-termleaseliabilitiesotherlong-termliabilities
Totallong-termliabilitiesTotalliabilities
Preferredshares
Totalcommonequity
Minorityinterest
Totalliabilities&equity
Netdebt,adjusted
2,473.016.7
--
10,883.4
13,373.0
2,076.18.10.04.0
17,940.0
629.2
--
155.0
3,573.1
4,357.4
--
125.1
153.5
4,510.9
13,429.2
--
17,940.0
(2,473.0)
4,499.940.5
--
10,963.4
15,503.8
2,721.9
280.10.04.0
20,988.7
509.8
--
220.6
3,989.3
4,719.7
--
178.0
206.4
4,926.1
16,062.5
--
20,988.7
(4,499.9)
7,546.046.5
--
11,040.0
18,632.5
3,131.7
280.10.04.0
24,527.1
568.9
--
240.5
4,301.4
5,110.8
--
198.5
226.9
5,337.7
19,189.4
--
24,527.1
(7,546.0)
11,097.251.5
--
11,105.1
22,253.8
3,373.9
280.10.04.0
28,390.6
626.0
--
245.5
4,632.6
5,504.1
--
207.1
235.5
5,739.6
22,651.0
--
28,390.6
(11,097.2)
CashFlow(Rmbmn)
12/23
12/24E
12/25E
12/26E
Netincome
1,099.2
1,457.9
2,186.5
2,615.3
D&Aadd-back
258.8
357.9
448.9
496.3
Minorityinterestadd-back
--
--
--
--
Net(inc)/decworkingcapital
737.7
258.5
308.5
323.2
Otheroperatingcashflow
1,225.2
1,408.8
1,184.5
1,093.0
Cashflowfromoperations
3,047.0
3,483.2
4,128.4
4,527.8
Capitalexpenditures
(955.5)
(1,199.0)
(1,082.4)
(976.6)
Acquisitions
--
--
--
--
Divestitures
--
--
--
--
Others
(6,588.4)
--
--
--
Cashflowfrominvesting
(9,938.6)
(1,471.0)
(1,082.4)
(976.6)
Repaymentofleaseliabilities
Dividendspaid(common&pref)
Inc/(dec)indebt
Otherfinancingcashflows
(533.1)
14.8
0.0
0.0
Cashflowfromfinancing
(387.2)
14.8
0.0
0.0
Totalcashflow
(7,278.9)
2,027.0
3,046.1
3,551.2
Freecashflow
2,091.5
2,284.1
3,046.1
3,551.2
Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimates.
_
29August20242
GoldmanSachsKanzhunLtd.(BZ)
ontrackto100%utilization,andtheincremental2%isfrompossiblespecialcash
dividend(e.g.US$100mn+basedonthesame50%payoutratioonGAAPnetpro?tin2023asmanagementislookingintothedividendpolicy).
Wecutourcashbillingsandrevenueforecastsby-2%/-6%/-9%onaveragein
2024/25/26E,primarilyonamorecautiousassumptionofpaidenterprisecustomer
growth;wenowmodellargestableenterprisepayingratios(Exhibit6)andARPPUin
2024-26E,anduserpenetrationtobethepredominantdriverof24%/15%/11%revenue
growthin2024/25/26E.Werevisenon-GAAPnetpro?tin2024/25/26Eby
+1%/-2%/-7%tofactorin2Q24pro?tbeatandthestrongoperatingleverage,andforecastc.20%non-GAAPoperatingpro?tCAGRin2024-26E.
For3Q24E,wenowexpect1)revenue/cashbillings+19%/+14%yoy,2)non-GAAP
OPMof31.7%,-2.5ppyoyduetoadspendingattheOlympics,and3)non-GAAPNPMof35.2%,-9ppyoyonahighereffectivetaxrateof12%.
Our12mtargetpriceforKanzhunisloweredtoUS$19.4fromUS$22.7,basedonatargetP/Emultipleof20x(vs.22xprioraswemarktomarkettheavg.12m-fwdP/EYTD)appliedtoaverage2025-26EEPS.StayBuy.
Takeawaysfrommanagementcall
nRobustMAU/engagementgrowth:MAUsgrew+25%yoyin2Q24(vs.17%yoyin1Q24).In1H24,BZadded28mntotalveri?edusers(vs.fullyeartarget40-45mn).LTMpaidenterpriseusersgrew+31%to5.9mn.AccordingtoQuestmobile,MAUsgrew+19%yoy/+2%mominJuly,vs.+17%yoyinJune,withDAUsreaching
historicallyhighandaDAU/MAUratioat23%.Timespentsharefurtherimprovedto61%inJulyamongmajoronlinerecruitmentplatforms.
Exhibit1:BossZhipinremainsChina’slargestonlinerecruitmentplatform,registering50mnMAUsinJul+19%yoy...
_
MAUsofmajorrecruitmentplatforms(mn)
Exhibit2:...andclaimed61%timespentshareamongstmajorrecruitmentplatformsinChinainJuly
mn
Mar-17
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Ganji
Zhaocaimao
Jul-17
Nov-17
Mar-18
Jul-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
Jul-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
BossZhipinLagou
Jul-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
ZhaopinYupao
Jul-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
Jul-22
51JobMaimai
Nov-22
Mar-23
Jul-23
Nov-23
Mar-24
Jul-24
Liepin
Dianzhang
51JobLiepin
Ganji
Zhaocaimao
YupaoLagou
Zhilian
Dianzhang
2021-01
2021-02
2021-03
2021-04
2021-05
2021-06
2021-07
2021-08
2021-09
2021-10
2021-11
2021-12
2022-01
2022-02
2022-03
2022-04
2022-05
2022-06
2022-07
2022-08
2022-09
2022-10
2022-11
2022-12
2023-01
2023-02
2023-03
2023-04
2023-05
2023-06
2023-07
2023-08
2023-09
2023-10
2023-11
2023-12
2024-01
2024-02
2024-03
2024-04
2024-05
2024-06
2024-07
BossZhipinMaimai
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
Source:QuestMobileSource:QuestMobile
nRecruitmentdemandtrendedweakerinthesecondhalfof2Q24,asper
management.Enterprises’willingnesstopaydeclinedsequentiallyastheratioofjobseekerstoenterpriseusersincreased.Thatsaid,the#ofenterpriseuseradditionsin
29August20243
GoldmanSachsKanzhunLtd.(BZ)
n
n
n
_
n
n
2Q24grewyoy,andtheaverageMAUofenterpriseusersgrew17%yoyin2Q24.
Despiteshort-termweakperformancein2Q24,managementbelievesthelong-term
structuralopportunitystillexistsasi)ChinahasabundantSMEs,ii)thereisa
structurallaborshortage(especiallyyounglabor),andiii)BossZhipin’sbusinessmodelscatersbestforSMEsandyoungtalents.
Byjobseekertypeandindustry:
oBlue-collardeliveredstrongerperformanceintermsofrecruitmentdemandvs.whitecollarin2Q24,showingyoygrowthbutqoqslowdown.Speci?cally,manufacturinghasbeenthebrightspotfollowedbylogistics.IntoAugust,
blue-collarsectorscontinuedtoshowimprovingsupply-demanddynamics,withactiveenterpriseusersgrowingsequentially.
oBycitytier,tier-2andbelowcitiesstilloutperformedtier-1cities.
oByenterprisesize,largeenterprises’recruitmentdemandtrendedyoybetterthanSMEs,especiallyforenterpriseswithmorethan10kemployees.
HailuoProject:BZhasbuiltcooperationwithagenciesinblue-collarlogistics,
manufacturingindustriesandsetuprules/monitoringmechanismtoensurequalityandrulesofagenciesthroughtheHailuoProject.ThecompanybelievestheHailuoProjecthasbeeneffectiveinprotectingjobseekersintheblue-collarsectorandatthesameallowingagentstomakemoneyinaresponsiblemanner.HailuoSelectgeneratedc.Rmb40mnrevenuein2Q24,growingsigni?cantlyfrom1Q24.The
companyplanstostepupinvestmentinHailuoprojectespeciallyinthemanufacturingsector.
AcquisitionofW.DTechnology:PosttheacquisitionofW.D.Technologyin1Q24inordertoimproveKanzhun’scorecompetenciesinblue-collarsectors,managementplanstointroduceanewservicemodelcombiningBossZhipin’sadvantageintraf?candW.D’sbusinessknowhowinblue-collarrecruitment.Thatsaid,thefounding
teamofW.DTechnologywillmanagethecompanyindependently.
Overseasexpansion:Thecompanyhasintroducedaminimumviableproductin
HongKongandlaunchedOfferT.Managementbelievesittakes2-3monthstoseeuserfeedbackanddecidethedevelopmentpace,whileittakes2-3yearsto
seemeaningfulrevenuecontribution,aspermanagement.IndevelopedmarketsinAsiaandEurope,thecompanyhasstartedtobuildlocalteamsandiscon?dentinthelong-termoverseasexpansionopportunities.
AIinvestment:ManagementhasdecidedtoreducethelevelofpriorityforAI
investment.ThecompanywillfollowthelatestdevelopmentofAItechnologyandapplyitinternally,butexpectssuchinvestmentstostayatmoststablevs.2Q24inthenearterm.
2024Efull-yearoperatingpro?tguidanceunchanged:Managementkeeps2024E
non-GAAPoperatingpro?tguidanceatRmb2.3bnunchangedas1)marketing
expensescouldbewellcontrolledatarelativelylowlevel,asthecompanyhas
achieved62%-70%ofuseracquisitiontarget;2)thecompanyreducestheprioritylevelofAIinvestmentsleadingtoreducedR&Dexpenses.Additionally,
managementbelievesshare-basedcompensationhasreachedthepeakleveland
29August20244
GoldmanSachsKanzhunLtd.(BZ)
willgraduallydeclineinthecomingquarters.
Exhibit3:BossZhipiniOSbillingswas+4%yoymonthtodateinAugust(asofAug.24)(vs.+5%/+18%yoyinJune/July)
BossZhipiniOSgrossingtrend
Exhibit4:BossZhipin’siOSgrossingrankwas?atyoyinJuly/Augusttodate
160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20% 0%-20%-40%-60%
135%
74%
54%
58%42%
25%32%24%
15%
-16%
-33%-35%
61%61%
25%
15%21%18%17%
3%4%
-5%-5%
-23%
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
DownloadyoyGrossingsyoyGrossingsmom20242023202220212020
Source:SensorTowerSource:Qimai,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit5:BossZhipiniOSgrossingrankedhigheryoy/wowintheweekendedAug.24
Exhibit6:Weexpecttheenterprisepayingratiotoremainstablegoingforwardonanannualbasis
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
3/1
3/8
3/15
3/22
3/29
4/5
4/12
4/19
yoy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
4/26
5/3
5/10
5/17
5/24
5/31
6/7
6/14
6/21
6/28
7/5
7/12
7/19
7/26
8/2
8/9
8/16
8/23
rankchangeiOSgrossingrank(RHS)
40.035.030.025.020.015.010.05.0
-
25%
19%20%19%
2019202020212022
Verifiedenterpriseusers(mn)%enterprisepayingratio-new
21%
22%22%22%
20232024E2025E2026E
LTMpaidenterprisecustomers(mn)%enterprisepayingratio-old
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source:QimaiSource:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
_
Exhibit7:Weexpectcashbillingstogrow18%yoyandrevenuetogrow24%yoyin2024E
Exhibit8:Weexpectnon-GAAPoperatingpro?ttoreachRmb2.3bn,largelyunchangedvs.priorGSe
Rmbbn
12
10
8
6
4
2
-
119%
95%
98%
90%
6%
-8%
2019202020212022
45%
24%
15%
12%
11%
32%
10%
18%
20232024E2025E2026E
140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%
-20%
Rmbmn
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
(500)(1,000)
-48%
(478)2019
-15%
(288)
2020
28%
21%
1,638
12%
887
563
202120222023
2,320
31%
2024E
2,918
34%
2025E
3,252
35%
2026E
80%
60%
40%20%
0%
-20%
-40%-60%
TotalrevenuesCashbillingsRevenueyoy%Cashbillingsyoy%Operatingprofit,non-GAAPOPM,non-GAAP
Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
29August20245
GoldmanSachsKanzhunLtd.(BZ)
Chinamacrodatahighlights
Exhibit9:Urbanwagegrowthdeceleratedin2Q24Exhibit10:Allsectorssawdeceleratingwagegrowthin2Q24vs.
1Q24,accordingtoZResearchInstitute
38-cityavg.hiringwageyoychangebysector
Percentchange,yoy
25
20
15
10
Percentchange,yoy
25
20
15
10
5
5
GSChinawagetracker(basedonaverage)Urbandisposableincome:wage(NBS)
0
PBOCincomesentiment
Wage,nonprivateenterprises(NBS)Migrantworkerwage(NBS)
Zhiringwage
Urbandisposableincome(NBS)TaoZhalaborincome*
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
040506070809101112131415161718192021222324*Zhaet.al.(2015)"TrendsandCyclesinChina'sMacroeconomy",NBERWorkingPaper
14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%
38-cityavg.hiringwageyoychangebysector
5%
1%1%
2%
1%
0%
1%
-4%
Consumergoods
Finance
and
business
SemiTMTHealthcarePropertyCommerceConsumerservices
3Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q24
Source:NBS,CEIC,PBOC,Z,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:Z
Exhibit11:Employmentoutlookindexdeclinedto28%in3Q24vs.32%/33%in2Q24/1Q24,accordingtoManpoweremployment
outlooksurvey,primarilydraggedbySMEs
Netemploymentoutlookbycompanysize
Exhibit12:CKGSBEmploymentOutlookIndexdroppedmominJuntothelowestlevelYTD
60%50%40%30%20%10% 0%-10%
-20%
2Q213Q21Overall
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
4Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q24
Micro(<10)Small(10-49)Mid(50-249)Large(250+)
2011-09
2012-03
2012-09
2013-03
2013-09
2014-03
2014-09
2015-03
2015-09
2016-03
2016-09
2017-03
2017-09
2018-03
2018-09
2019-03
2019-09
2020-03
2020-09
2021-03
2021-09
2022-03
2022-09
2023-03
2023-09
2024-03
BusinessConditionIndexEmploymentCostIndexEmploymentOutlookIndex
Source:ManpowerSource:CKGSB,Wind
_
InvestmentThesis-KanzhunLtd.
Kanzhun(BZ)isthelargestonlinerecruitmentcompanyinChinaintermsofMAUsandrevenue.Builtuponamobile-native,recommendationfeed-basedanddirectchatmodel,
Kanzhun’sBossZhipinplatformenjoysindustry-leadinguserengagementandextendsrecruitmentservicesdirectlytomanagementandprofessionalrecruiters.Weare
Buy-ratedonBZasitenjoysoneofthestrongestgrowthandpro?tabilityoutlookpro?leswithinourChinaInternetcoverage,thankstorisingonlinerecruitment
penetrationanditsprovenyetearly-stagemonetizationmodel.Speci?cally,webelievei)Kanzhun’scontinuouspenetrationintoSMEs/bluecollarsectors,extendingindustry
leadership,andenterprisepayingratioimprovementshouldprovidetoplinegrowth
resilience;ii)itshighoperatingleverageandstrongbrandnameshouldleadtosustainedpro?tability,andthusleavemoreroomtoinvestintonewlegsofgrowthand/orreturn
excessivecashtoshareholders.
29August20246
GoldmanSachsKanzhunLtd.(BZ)
PriceTargetRisksandMethodology-KanzhunLtd.
WeareBuy-ratedonKanzhunwitha12-monthtargetpriceofUS$19.4basedona
targetP/Emultipleof20xappliedtoaverage2025-26EEPS.Keyrisks:1)Slower-thanexpectedmacro-economicandrecruitmentdemandrecovery;2)Intensifying
competition;3)Lowermarginpro?lewithexpansionintoblue/gold-collarsegments;4)Potentialmisconductbyusers/employees.
_
29August20247
GoldmanSachsKanzhunLtd.(BZ)
DisclosureAppendix
RegAC
I,TimothyZhao,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyre?ectmypersonalviewsaboutthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesanditsortheirsecurities.Ialsocertifythatnopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespeci?crecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisreport.
Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.
GSFactorPro?le
TheGoldmanSachsFactorPro?leprovidesinvestmentcontextforastockbycomparingkeyattributestothemarket(i.e.ourcoverageuniverse)anditssectorpeers.Thefourkeyattributesdepictedare:Growth,FinancialReturns,Multiple(e.g.valuation)andIntegrated(acompositeofGrowth,FinancialReturnsandMultiple).Growth,FinancialReturnsandMultiplearecalculatedbyusingnormalizedranksforspeci?cmetricsforeachstock.The
normalizedranksforthemetricsarethenaveragedandconvertedintopercentilesfortherelevantattribute.Theprecisecalculationofeachmetricmayvarydependingonthe?scalyear,industryandregion,butthestandardapproachisasfollows:
Growthisbasedonastock’sforward-lookingsalesgrowth,EBITDAgrowthandEPSgrowth(for?nancialstocks,onlyEPSandsalesgrowth),withahigherpercentileindicatingahighergrowthcompany.FinancialReturnsisbasedonastock’sforward-lookingROE,ROCEandCROCI(for?nancial
stocks,onlyROE),withahigherpercentileindicatingacompanywithhigher?nancialreturns.Multipleisbasedonastock’sforward-lookingP/E,P/B,price/dividend(P/D),EV/EBITDA,EV/FCFandEV/DebtAdjustedCashFlow(DACF)(for?nancialstocks,onlyP/E,P/BandP/D),withahigherpercentileindicatingastocktradingatahighermultiple.TheIntegratedpercentileiscalculatedastheaverageoftheGrowthpercentile,FinancialReturns
percentileand(100%-Multiplepercentile).
FinancialReturnsandMultipleusetheGoldmanSachsanalystforecastsatthe?scalyear-endatleastthreequartersinthefuture.Growthusesinputsforthe?scalyearatleastsevenquartersinthefuturecomparedwiththeyearatleastthreequartersinthefuture(onaper-sharebasisforallmetrics).
ForamoredetaileddescriptionofhowwecalculatetheGSFactorPro?le,pleasecontactyourGSrepresentative.
M&ARank
Acrossourglobalcoverage,weexaminestocksusinganM&Aframework,consideringbothqualitativefactorsandquantitativefactors(whichmayvaryacrosssectorsandregions)toincorporatethepotentialthatcertaincompaniescouldbeacquired.WethenassignaM&Arankasameansofscoringcompaniesunderourratedcoveragefrom1to3,with1representinghigh(30%-50%)probabilityofthecompanybecominganacquisitiontarget,2
representingmedium(15%-30%)probabilityand3representinglow(0%-15%)probability.Forcompaniesranked1or2,inlinewithourstandarddepartmentalguidelinesweincorporateanM&Acomponentintoourtargetprice.M&Arankof3isconsideredimmaterialandthereforedoesnotfactorintoourpricetarget,andmayormaynotbediscussedinresearch.
Quantum
QuantumisGoldmanSachs’proprietarydatabaseprovidingaccesstodetailed?nancialstatementhistories,forecastsandratios.Itcanbeusedforin-depthanalysisofasinglecompany,ortomakecomparisonsbetweencompaniesindifferentsectorsandmarkets.
Disclosures
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