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3September2024|5:12PMEDT
Global:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate:WageGrowthContinuestoSoftenintheEuroArea
Please?ndanupdateofourproprietaryglobaleconomicindicatorsbelow.Thedata
JanHatzius
+1(212)902-0394|jan.hatzius@
behindtheseexhibitscanbedownloadedhere.Interactivechartscanbefoundon
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
ourlivingpagehere.
JosephBriggs
+1(212)902-2163|
joseph.briggs@
ChartoftheWeek
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
GiovanniPierdomenico
Exhibit1:WageGrowthisCoolingintheEuroArea,WhichShouldSupportIn?ationProgress
+44(20)7051-6807|
giovanni.pierdomenico@GoldmanSachsInternational
SarahDong
+1(212)357-9741|sarah.dong@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
Ourtrimmedcorein?ationmeasuretrimstheonethirdmostextremepricechangesfromtheindividualcorein?ationcomponents.Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
_
Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC
certi?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.
GoldmanSachsGlobal:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate
KeyFCIandGrowthCharts
Exhibit2:TheGlobalexRussiaFCIEasedPrimarilyonLowerShortRates
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit3:NoGrowthForecastChangesfor2024
ChangeinGSGDPForecastin2024
Percentage
points
10.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.1
_
Global
EuroArea
Brazil
India
Argentina
Malaysia
Philippines
0
Poland
Russia
Thailand
Turkey
Taiwan
US
Vietnam
Mexico
Japan
SouthKorea
Canada
MainlandChina
Germany
Spain
France
UK
SinceaWeekAgo
Percentagepoints
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Indonesia
Italy
Australia
0
Since60Days
Ago
Percentagepoints
Global
Malaysia
Taiwan
Russia
Brazil
Spain
Japan
Poland
US
France
Thailand
Indonesia
UK
Turkey
Australia
Vietnam
Philippines
EuroArea
MainlandChina
Canada
Germany
SouthKorea
India
1.41.2 10.80.60.40.2 0-0.2-0.4-0.6
Percentage
points1.41.21
0.80.60.40.20
Italy
Argentina
Mexico
-0.2-0.4-0.6
NorthAmericaWesternEuropeAsiaPacificLatamCEEMEA
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
3September20242
GoldmanSachsGlobal:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate
Exhibit4:OurPreliminaryAugustCAIRoseto+1.8%inNewZealandButFellto-2.8%inGermany
Country
(%ofDataReleased)
Global
DevelopedMarkets
US(42%)
EuroArea(35%)Germany(40%)
France(39%)
Italy(26%)
Spain(31%)
Japan(21%)
UK(42%)
Canada(8%)
Australia(18%)
NewZealand(55%)
Norway(18%)
Sweden(66%)
EmergingMarkets
China(15%)
India(12%)Brazil(44%)Russia(27%)
Month
AugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugust
SpotCAI
(%momannualized)
ValueWeeklyChange
+2.00.0
+0.6-0.1
+1.1-0.2
-0.6-0.1
-2.8-0.2
+0.1+0.3
0.0-0.1
+2.0-0.2
+0.7+0.5
+1.0-0.4
+1.1+0.2
+1.20.0
+1.8+2.6
+1.0-0.1
+0.6+0.4
+4.10.0
+4.7+0.2
+7.0-0.1
+3.2-1.0
+3.1-0.7
3MonthAverage
CAI(%mom
annualized)
+1.8
+0.6
+0.8
-0.4
-2.1
0.0
+0.1
+2.2
+0.9
+1.7
+0.8
+1.2
-0.6
+1.1
+0.6
+3.8
+4.0
+6.8
+5.2
+3.3
CAIincountrieswith0%ofdatareleasedisforecasted.CAIaggregatesforGlobal,DevelopedMarkets,andEmergingMarketsareGDP-weightedusingmarketFXcountryweights.
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit5:OurGlobalCAIRemainedBelowPotentialinAugust
WorldCAI
Percentchange,annualrate
Percentchange,annualrate
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
8
7
6
_
5
4
3
GlobalGSPotential2.5%
2
1
0
-1
-2-2
Jul-21Dec-21May-22Oct-22Mar-23Aug-23Jan-24Jun-24
RegionCAIs
Percentchange,annualrate
Percentchange,annualrate
10
10
8
8
6
6
EMGSPotential4.2%
4
4
DMGSPotential1.6%
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
DevelopedMarketsEmergingMarkets
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8-8
Jul-21Nov-21Mar-22Jul-22Nov-22Mar-23Jul-23Nov-23Mar-24Jul-24
GSDMCAIisamarketFX-weightedaverageoftheUS,Germany,France,Italy,Spain,Japan,theUK,andCanadaandEMisofBrazil,Russia,India,andChina.GlobalGSCAIisanaverageofallaforementionedcountries.
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
3September20243
GoldmanSachsGlobal:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate
KeyWageandPriceIn?ationCharts
Exhibit6:GSWageTrackersandIn?ationMeasures
_
USwagetrackeriscomposition-adjustedin2020and2021.Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
3September20244
GoldmanSachsGlobal:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate
Exhibit7:GSJobs-WorkersGaps
ChangeinJobs-WorkersGapSinceDecember2019
Percentagepoints
Percentagepoints
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
US
-2
UK
-3
France
-3
-4-4
Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Note:DiamondsindicateGSnowcasts.
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Percentagepoints
Percentagepoints
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
CanadaAustraliaGermany
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Note:DiamondsindicateGSnowcasts.
DetailedIndicatorsUpdate
FinancialConditionsIndex(FCI)
Exhibit8:GSGlobalexRussiaFCILevel(Left)andWeeklyChangeWithContributions(Right)
_
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
3September20245
GoldmanSachsGlobal:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate
Exhibit9:GSGlobalFCILevel(Left)andWeeklyChangeWithContributions(Right)
\IndexGSGlobalFCI
102.0
Tightening
101.5
101.0
100.5
100.0
99.5
99.0
98.5
2012201420162018202020222024
Index102.0
101.5
101.0
100.5
100.0
99.5
99.0
98.5
BasispointsBasispointsWeeklyChangeinGlobalFCIandContributions
33
2.12
1
0.10
-1
-2
-2.3
-3
-4
-5
-6
-6.1
-7
GlobalFCILongRateShortRateCredit
Spread
1.8
-0.5
EquitiesExchange
Rate
0.3
SovereignSpread
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit10:GSUSFCILevel(Left)andWeeklyChangeWithContributions(Right)
Index
102
101
100
99
98
97
_
96
2012
Index
GSUSFCI
102
Tightening
101
100
99
98
97
96
201420162018202020222024
Basispoints
WeeklyChangeinUSFCIandContributionsBasispoints
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
7
5.9
6
5
4.13.9
4
3
2
1
0.00.2
0
-1
-2
-2.2
-3
-3
EquitiesExchange
Rate(TWI)
USFCILongRateShortRateCredit
Spread
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
3September20246
GoldmanSachsGlobal:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate
Exhibit11:GSEuroAreaFCILevel(Left)andWeeklyChangeWithContributions(Right)
\IndexGSEuroAreaFCI
102.5
Tightening
102.0
101.5
101.0
100.5
100.0
99.5
99.0
98.5
2012201420162018202020222024
Index102.5
102.0
101.5
101.0
100.5
100.0
99.5
99.0
98.5
BasispointsBasispointsWeeklyChangeinEuroAreaFCIandContributions
4
3.03
2
1
0
-0.1-0.2-0.2
-1
-2
-3
-3.0-4
-4.7
-4.3-5
-6
EuroAreaLongRateShortRateCreditEquitiesExchangeSovereign
FCISpreadRate(TWI)Spread
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit12:WeeklyChangeinFCIAcrossCountries
Basispoints
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
WeeklyChangeinGSFCI
Basispoints
50403020100
-10-20-30
Tightening-40
-50
-60
_
Philippines
China
Indonesia
Japan
Mexico
EMs
SouthKorea
EuroArea
Global
India
Thailand
DMs
UK
US
Canada
Turkey
Australia
Brazil
Malaysia
Russia
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
3September20247
GoldmanSachsGlobal:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate
China
Mexico
EMs
India
US
Global
SouthKorea
Philippines
DMs
Canada
Russia
EuroArea
Brazil
UK
Indonesia
Japan
Australia
Exhibit13:Year-Over-YearChangeinFCIAcrossCountries
Basispoints
0
-40
-33-32
-80
-73
-86
-120-100
-119
-160
Tightening
-200
-206
-240
0
-40
-80
-120
-160
YearOverYearChangeinGSFCI
-200
-240
18
Basispoints
-20-12
-52
-97
-31
-79
-30
-42
-74
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
_
3September20248
GoldmanSachsGlobal:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate
FCIImpulses
Exhibit14:FCIImpulsesOvertheNext4Quarters(Left)andintheEuroArea,UK,andUS(Right)
EffectofFinancialConditionsonRealGDPGrowth(3QuarterCenteredMovingAverage)
NewZealand
Percentageannualrate
0.80.60.40.20.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0
UK
points,
Norway
Japan
Australia
Sweden
Switzerland
Next4Quarters
EuroArea
G10
Canada
US
Percentagepoints,annualrate
0.80.60.40.20.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0
Percentagepoints,annualrate
Percentagepoints,annualrate
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.8
-1.2
-1.6
-2.0
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.8
-1.2
EuroAreaUK
-1.6
US
-2.0
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
202220232024
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit15:FCIImpulsesintheUS,EuroArea,Japan,andUK
EffectofFinancialConditionsonRealGDPGrowth(3QuarterCenteredMovingAverage)
Percentagepoints,USPercentagepoints,
annualrateannualrate
1.01.0
0.50.5
0.00.0
-0.5-0.5
-1.0-1.0
-1.5-1.5
-2.0-2.0
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
202220232024
_
Percentagepoints,JapanPercentagepoints,
annualrateannualrate
1.01.0
0.80.8
0.60.6
0.40.4
0.20.2
0.00.0
-0.2-0.2
-0.4-0.4
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
202220232024
Percentagepoints,EuroAreaPercentagepoints,
annualrateannualrate
0.40.4
0.20.2
0.00.0
-0.2-0.2
-0.4-0.4
-0.6-0.6
-0.8-0.8
-1.0-1.0
-1.2-1.2
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
202220232024
Percentagepoints,UKPercentagepoints,
annualrateannualrate
0.00.0
-0.2-0.2
-0.4-0.4
-0.6-0.6
-0.8-0.8
-1.0-1.0
-1.2-1.2
-1.4-1.4
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
202220232024
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
3September20249
GoldmanSachsGlobal:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate
CurrentActivityIndicator(CAI)
Exhibit16:CAIAggregates
WorldCAI
Percentchange,annualrate
Percentchange,annualrate
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
8
7
6
5
4
3
GlobalGSPotential2.5%
2
1
0
-1
-2-2
Jul-21Dec-21May-22Oct-22Mar-23Aug-23Jan-24Jun-24
RegionCAIs
Percentchange,annualrate
Percentchange,annualrate
10
10
8
6
8
6
EMGSPotential4.2%
4
4
DMGSPotential1.6%
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
DevelopedMarketsEmergingMarkets
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8-8
Jul-21Nov-21Mar-22Jul-22Nov-22Mar-23Jul-23Nov-23Mar-24Jul-24
GSDMCAIisaaforementioned
marketFX-weightedaverageoftheUS,Germany,France,Italy,Spain,Japan,theUK,andCanadaandEMisofBrazil,Russia,India,andChina.GlobalGSCAIisanaverageofallcountries.
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit17:CAIHeatmap
Country
(%ofDataReleased)
Global
DevelopedMarkets
US(42%)
EuroArea(35%)Germany(40%)
France(39%)
Italy(26%)
_
Spain(31%)
Japan(21%)
UK(42%)
Canada(8%)
Australia(18%)
NewZealand(55%)
Norway(18%)
Sweden(66%)
EmergingMarkets
China(15%)
India(12%)Brazil(44%)Russia(27%)
Month
AugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugustAugust
SpotCAI
(%momannualized)
ValueWeeklyChange
+2.00.0
+0.6-0.1
+1.1-0.2
-0.6-0.1
-2.8-0.2
+0.1+0.3
0.0-0.1
+2.0-0.2
+0.7+0.5
+1.0-0.4
+1.1+0.2
+1.20.0
+1.8+2.6
+1.0-0.1
+0.6+0.4
+4.10.0
+4.7+0.2
+7.0-0.1
+3.2-1.0
+3.1-0.7
3MonthAverage
CAI(%mom
annualized)
+1.8
+0.6
+0.8
-0.4
-2.1
0.0
+0.1
+2.2
+0.9
+1.7
+0.8
+1.2
-0.6
+1.1
+0.6
+3.8
+4.0
+6.8
+5.2
+3.3
CAIincountrieswith0%ofdatareleasedisforecasted.CAIaggregatesforGlobal,DevelopedMarkets,andEmergingMarketsareGDP-weightedusingmarketFXcountryweights.
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
3September202410
GoldmanSachsGlobal:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate
Exhibit18:CAIsforLargeDMsandEMs
Percentchange,annualrate
20
US
15
8
10
Canada
5
4
0
-5
0
-10
-15
China
-20
SouthAfrica
-25-25
Jul-21Dec-21May-22Oct-22Mar-23Aug-23Jan-24Jun-24
-8-8
Jul-21Dec-21May-22Oct-22Mar-23Aug-23Jan-24Jun-24
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Percentchange,annualrate20
Percentchange,annualrate
EuroAreaJapan
UK
Percentchange,annualrate
BrazilRussiaIndia
DMCAI
EMCAI
12
12
-4
-4
4
8
0
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
_
3September202411
GoldmanSachsGlobal:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate
MAP
Exhibit19:GSMAPSurpriseIndex
GSMAPSurpriseIndex
Aug-23
Index
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
US
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
EuroArea
May-24
Jun-24
China
Jul-24
Aug-24
Sep-24
Index
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Aug-23
Index2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Global
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Index2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
Wepresentthe21daymovingaverageofdailyMAPscores.Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit20:LatestGSMAPSurpriseIndex
Index
_
Japan
SouthKorea
India
China
32.5 21.5 10.5 0-0.5 -1-1.5-2
Canada
Russia
US
Brazil
Global
Australia
UK
GSMAPSurpriseIndex
Index
3
2.52
1.51
0.50
-0.5-1
EuroArea
-1.5-2
Wepresentthe21daymovingaverageofdailyMAPscores.Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
3September202412
GoldmanSachsGlobal:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate
TrimmedCoreIn?ation
Exhibit21:GSTrimmedCoreIn?ation
_
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
3September202413
GoldmanSachsGlobal:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate
WageTrackers
Exhibit22:GSWageTrackers
GSWageTrackers
Percentchange,yearagoG10Percentchange,yearago
55
44
33
22
11
19992003200720112015201920232027
Percentchange,yearagoEuroArea
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