2024年年中電力報(bào)告（英）-52正式版

ElectricityMid-Year

Update

July2024

INTERNATIONALENERGY

AGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthe

fullspectrum

ofenergyissues

includingoil,gasand

coalsupplyand

demand,renewable

energytechnologies,

electricitymarkets,

energyefficiency,

accesstoenergy,

demandside

managementand

muchmore.Through

itswork,theIEA

advocatespoliciesthat

willenhancethe

reliability,affordability

andsustainabilityof

energyinits

31membercountries,

13association

countriesandbeyond.

Thispublicationandany

mapincludedhereinare

withoutprejudicetothe

statusoforsovereigntyover

anyterritory,tothe

delimitationofinternational

frontiersandboundariesand

tothenameofanyterritory,

cityorarea.

IEAmember

countries:

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

CzechRepublic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

NewZealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

SlovakRepublic

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

RepublicofTürkiye

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

TheEuropean

Commissionalso

participatesinthe

workoftheIEA

IEAassociation

countries:

Argentina

Brazil

China

Egypt

India

Indonesia

Kenya

Morocco

Senegal

Singapore

SouthAfrica

Thailand

Ukraine

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgency

Website:

ElectricityMid-YearUpdateAbstract

July2024

Abstract

Despitetheenduringimpactsoftheglobalenergycrisis,growthinelectricity

demandhasremainedrobustinthefirsthalfof2024duetosolideconomicactivity

inmanyregions,intenseheatwavesandcontinuedelectrification.

Thismid-yearupdate,whichfollowstheElectricity2024reportpublishedin

January,exploresthesetrendsandtheirimplicationsfor2025.Itfeaturesthelatest

datafor2023andnew2024and2025forecastsforglobalelectricitydemand,

supplybyfueltype,andcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsfromthepowersector.It

alsoanalysesthelatestdevelopmentsinmajormarkets,includingChina,the

UnitedStates,theEuropeanUnionandIndia.

ThereportincludesaspecialfocusonelectricitydemandtrendsinEuropeand

theirdrivers,aswellasrecentdevelopmentsrelatedtotheglobaldatacentre

sectoranditselectricityconsumption.Inaddition,thisupdateprovidesa

comprehensiveanalysisoftheincreasingprevalenceofnegativeelectricityprices

invariouspowermarketsworldwide.

PAGE|3

ElectricityMid-YearUpdateAcknowledgements

July2024

Acknowledgements,contributors

andcredits

ThisstudywaspreparedbytheGas,CoalandPowerMarkets(GCP)Divisionof

theInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).ItwasdesignedanddirectedbyEren?am,

EnergyAnalystforElectricity.

Themainauthorsare:Eren?am,CarlosDavidYá?ezdeLeón,MatthewDavis,

andShreyMehta.KeisukeSadamori,DirectoroftheIEAEnergyMarketsand

Security(EMS)DirectorateandDennisHesseling,HeadofGCP,providedexpert

guidanceandadvice.

Valuablecommentsandsupportwereprovidedbyotherseniormanagement

withintheIEA,inparticular,TimGould.Inaddition,expertguidanceandinvaluable

insightsfromCarlosFernándezálvarez,SeniorEnergyAnalyst,aregreatly

appreciated.

Thereportalsobenefitedfromanalysis,dataandinputfromMarcCasanovas,

CaroleEtienne,KeithEverhart,JulianKeutz,GergelyMolnárandFrederickRitter.

IEAcolleaguesacrosstheagencyprovidedhelpfulcommentsandfeedback,in

particular,HeymiBahar,AlessandroBlasi,StéphanieBouckaert,JavierJorquera

Copier,CiaránHealy,AraceliFernandezPales,BrentWanner,andJacques

Warichet.

TheauthorswouldalsoliketothankDianeMunroforskilfullyeditingthe

manuscriptandtheIEACommunicationandDigitalOffice,inparticular,Jethro

Mullen,OliverJoy,AstridDumond,andClaraVallois.WealsothankEinar

EinarssonforhisassistanceonsettingupthenecessaryITinfrastructure.

FromoutsideoftheIEA,ChristinaChristopoulou(AWS),AntoniaGawel(Google),

andGeorgeKamiya(ExpertonICTenergy),reviewedthereportandprovided

valuableinputandcomments.

Questionsorcomments?

Pleasewritetousatgcp@oreren.cam@

PAGE|4

ElectricityMid-YearUpdateTableofcontents

July2024

Tableofcontents

Executivesummary6

Demand:Globalelectricityusesettogrowmuchfasterin2024-202510

ElectricitydemandinChinapropelledhigherbyarapidriseinEVandsolarPVproduction.11

Europeanelectricitydemandrecoveringbutuncertaintyoverthepaceofgrowthremains13

Heatwavescontinuedtostrainpowersystemsaroundtheworldin202417

India'ssummerelectricitydemandsurgesamidstprolongedheatwaves18

Electricitydemandfromdatacentresisinfocuswiththeriseofartificialintelligence19

Supply:Renewablegenerationwillovertakecoal-firedpowerin202526

Fossil-firedgenerationfellintheEUbutroseinIndia,ChinaandtheUSinH1202428

HydropoweroutputwasreducedinvariousregionsinH12024duetoweatherimpact31

Emissions:PowergenerationCO2emissionsplateauin2024-202534

IncreasedemissionsinIndiaaremorethanoffsetbydeclinesinEurope

andtheUnitedStates34

Prices:Wholesaleelectricitypricescontinuetodivergeacrossregions36

GasdriveselectricitypriceshigherinEurope,whileUSmarketsremainstableonaverage..36

Negativeelectricitypricesarebecomingincreasinglycommoninsomeregions38

Generalannex46

Summarytables46

Regionalandcountrygroupings48

Abbreviationsandacronyms50

Unitsofmeasure50

PAGE|5

ElectricityMid-YearUpdateExecutivesummary

July2024

Executivesummary

In2024and2025,theworld’selectricitydemandissetto

growatthefastestpacesinceitspost-Covidrebound

Overthe2024-2025forecastperiodofthisreport,globalelectricity

consumptionisexpectedtoincreaseatthefastestpaceinyears,fuelledby

robusteconomicgrowth,intenseheatwavesandcontinuedelectrification

worldwide.The4%growthexpectedfor2024isthehighestsince2007,withthe

exceptionsofthesharpreboundsin2010aftertheglobalfinancialcrisisandin

2021followingtheCovid-induceddemandcollapse.Thegrowthisdrivenbystrong

electricitydemandinmultipleregionsandcountries,especiallyinthePeople’s

RepublicofChina(hereafter,“China”),IndiaandtheUnitedStates.Weexpectthis

demandtrendtocontinuein2025,withgrowthalsoat4%.Inboth2024and2025,

theriseintheworld’selectricityuseisprojectedtobesignificantlyhigherthan

globalGDPgrowthof3.2%.In2022and2023,electricitydemandgrewmore

slowlythanGDP.

ElectricitydemandinChinaisforecasttoincreaseby6.5%in2024,similar

toitsaverageratebetween2016and2019.Thisstillstrongannualgrowth

representsamodestslowdownfrom7%in2023amidtheongoingrestructuring

oftheChineseeconomy.Electricityconsumptionin2024and2025isexpectedto

bedrivenbyrobustactivityintheservicesindustriesandvariousindustrialsectors,

includingarapidriseinsolarPV,electricvehicle(EV)andbatteryproduction,and

theelectricity-intensiveprocessingofrelatedmaterials.Continuedexpansionof

5GnetworksanddatacentresaswellasstrongEVuptakeinthedomesticmarket

arealsocontributingfactors.Overthelastthreeyears,Chinahasbeenadding

electricitydemandroughlyequivalenttothatofGermanyeachyear,onaverage,

andthistrendisexpectedtocontinuethrough2025,withgrowthforecastat6.2%.

India,thefastestgrowingmajoreconomyintheworld,isforecasttopostan

8%riseinelectricityconsumptionin2024,matchingtherapidgrowthitsaw

in2023.ThisissupportedbystrongGDPgrowthandincreasedcoolingdemand

duetolongandintenseheatwaves.Inthefirsthalfof2024,thecountrygrappled

withheatwavesofrecordduration,withpeakloadreachinganewhighandputting

exceptionalstrainsonpowersystems.Assumingareturntoaverageweather

conditions,weexpectelectricitydemandgrowthinIndiatoeasemoderatelyto

6.8%in2025.

ElectricitydemandintheUnitedStatesissettoreboundsignificantlyin

2024,increasingby3%year-on-year.Thestrongergrowthrateisdue,inpart,

tothecomparisonwith2023whendemanddeclinedby1.6%amidmildweather.

PAGE|6

ElectricityMid-YearUpdateExecutivesummary

July2024

Electricityconsumptionisboostedbyanimprovedeconomicoutlookaswellas

risingdemandforairconditioningamidsevereheatwavesandthesurgeindata

centreexpansions.Demandisforecasttoriseby1.9%in2025.

ElectricitydemandintheEuropeanUnionisexpectedtoincreaseby1.7%

in2024aseconomicdifficultiesease,butuncertaintyoverthepaceof

growthremains.EUelectricityconsumptionhadcontractedoverthetwoprevious

years,withthedeclineinoutputfromenergy-intensiveindustriesanimportant

driver.SignsofarecoveryinEUelectricitydemandemergedstartinginthefourth

quarterof2023.Growthgainedfurthertractionduringthefirsthalfof2024as

energypricesstabilisedandvariousindustriesthathadpreviouslycurtailed

operationsrestarted.Nevertheless,whilecomingdownfromprevioushighs,

energypricesinEuropearestillelevatedcomparedwithpre-Covidlevels.This,

combinedwithamoderatelysluggishmacroeconomicoutlook,continuestoweigh

onsomeindustriesandraisesuncertaintiesoverthepaceofthedemandrecovery.

Theriseofartificialintelligence(AI)hasputtheelectricityconsumptionof

datacentresinfocus,makingbetterstocktakingmoreimportantthanever.

Inmanyregions,historicalestimatesofdatacentres’electricityconsumptionare

hamperedbyalackofreliabledata.Atthesametime,futureprojectionsinclude

averywiderangeofuncertaintiesrelatedtothepaceofdeployment,thediverse

andexpandingapplicationsofAI,andthepotentialforenergyefficiency

improvements.Expandingandimprovingthecollectionofelectricitydemanddata

fromthesectorwillbecrucialtoidentifypastdevelopmentscorrectlyandto

understandfuturetrendsbetter.TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)hasbeen

afrontrunnerinstudyingthelinksbetweentheenergysectoranddigitalisation.To

providemoreinsightintothetopic,theIEAwillbehostingtheGlobalConference

onEnergyandAIinDecember2024,bringingtogethergovernments,industry,

researchersandotherstakeholders.

Heatwavescontinuetostrainpowersystemsworldwide

Manyregionsstruggledwithintenseheatwavesinthefirsthalfof2024,

whichelevatedelectricitydemandandstrainedpowergrids.May2024was

thehottestmonthsinceglobalrecordsbeganandthe12thconsecutivemonthof

record-hightemperatures.India,Mexico,Pakistan,theUnitedStates,VietNam,

andmanyothercountriessawsevereheatwaveswithsurgingpeakloadsdueto

theincreasedneedforcooling.Asmorehouseholdsbegintopurchaseair

conditioners(ACs),theimpactwillgrowsubstantially,particularlyinemerging

economieswheretheproportionofhouseholdswithACsiscurrentlymuchlower

comparedwithadvancedeconomieswithcomparableclimates.Implementing

higherefficiencystandardsforairconditioningwillbecrucialtomitigatetheimpact

ofincreasedcoolingdemandonpowersystems.Theexpansionand

reinforcementofpowergridswillalsobeveryimportanttoensurereliability.

PAGE|7

ElectricityMid-YearUpdateExecutivesummary

July2024

Cleanenergysourceswillsetnewrecordsthrough2025

Despitethesharpriseinelectricityuse,solarPValoneisexpectedtomeet

roughlyhalfofthegrowthinglobalelectricitydemandto2025.Togetherwith

windpowergeneration,itwillmakeupalmost75%oftheincrease.

GlobalelectricitygenerationfromsolarPVandwindisexpectedtosurpass

thatfromhydropowerin2024.Thisfollowsamassive33%year-on-year

increaseinglobalsolarPVgenerationandsustainedgrowthinwindgenerationof

10%.Theglobalenergytransitionissettoachieveanothersignificantmilestone

by2025,withtotalrenewablegenerationpoisedtoovertakecoal-firedelectricity

output.Theshareofrenewablesinglobalelectricitysupplyroseto30%in2023

andisprojectedtoclimbfurtherto35%in2025.

IntheEuropeanUnion,windandsolarPVgenerationissettoexceedfossil-

firedoutputin2024.WindandsolarPV’scombinedshareintotalelectricity

supplyisforecasttorisefrom26%in2023to30%in2024,andto33%in2025.

TheprimarydriveristherapidgrowthofsolarPV,ledbyreducedpricesofsolar

modulescombinedwithstrongpolicysupport.Theshareofallrenewableenergies

intotalgenerationisexpectedtoreach50%in2024.

Globalnucleargenerationisontracktoreachanewhighin2025,

surpassingitspreviousrecordin2021.Nucleargenerationisforecasttorise

globallyby1.6%in2024,andby3.5%in2025.Thisgrowthissupportedbya

steadyincreaseinoutputbytheFrenchnuclearpowerfleetasmaintenanceworks

arecompleted,bytherestartingofreactorsinJapan,andbynewreactorscoming

onlineinvariousmarkets,includingChina,India,KoreaandEurope.

Powersectoremissionsareplateauing,withaslight

increasein2024followedbyadeclinein2025

Coal-firedoutputissettoremainresilientin2024duetostrongelectricity

demandgrowth,hinderingadeclineinglobalpowersectorCO2emissions.

Despitetherapidgrowthofrenewables,thebriskincreaseinelectricity

consumption,especiallyinChinaandIndia,isresultingintheuseofmorecoal-

firedgenerationtomeetdemand.Globalcoal-firedoutputisexpectedtoincrease

bylessthan1%in2024,butthisishighlydependentonhydropowertrends,

especiallyinChina.Chinesehydropoweroutputreboundedstronglyinthefirsthalf

of2024fromits2023low,andafurtherimprovementinhydropowertrendsinthe

secondhalfoftheyearcouldcurbcoal-firedpowergenerationandreduceglobal

powersectoremissions.Globalnaturalgas-firedoutputisforecasttogrowon

averagebyaround1%overthe2024-2025period.SignificantdeclinesinEurope

aresettobeoffsetbyincreasesinAsia,amidrisingLNGimports,andintheMiddle

East,drivenbyswitchingfromoil-firedtogas-firedgeneration.

PAGE|8

ElectricityMid-YearUpdateExecutivesummary

July2024

GlobalCO2emissionsfromelectricitygenerationaresettoremainbroadly

onaplateauthrough2025.Theslightincreaseinpowersectoremissionsin2024

isexpectedtobefollowedbyadecreaseoflessthan1%in2025.Thiswillbe

drivenbyamodestfallincoal-firedoutputduetofurtherexpansionofcleanenergy

sourcesandthecontinueddeclineinoil-firedgeneration.Whileextremeweather

conditionssuchasheatwavesanddroughts,aswellaseconomicshocksor

changesingovernmentpolicies,cancauseanuptickinemissionsinindividual

years,thestructuraltrendofcleanenergysourcesconstrainingfossilfuelswill

remainrobust.

TheUnitedStatesisforecasttoseeanuptickinpowersectorCO2emissions

in2024beforeadeclinein2025.TheUnitedStatesisoneofthefewadvanced

economiesthatwillseeitspowersectorCO2emissionsrisein2024,thoughthey

willstillbealmost30%lowerthanadecadeearlier.The2024increasefollowsa

sharpdeclineof8%in2023,whentherewasamassive20%dropincoal-fired

powergenerationduetostrongcompetitionfromverylownaturalgaspricesand

lowerelectricitydemandamidmildweather.In2024,UScoal-firedgenerationis

expectedtogrowbyaround2%andnaturalgasby1.5%,leadingtoanincrease

inemissions.ThisisdrivenbyasignificantreboundinUSelectricitydemand

growthafterthedeclinein2023andbythelimitedscopeforfurthercoal-to-gas

switching,giventhecurrentfuelpricedynamics.Nevertheless,thesetrendswill

behighlydependentonfurtherdevelopmentsinmarketpricesfornaturalgasand

weathertrendsinthesecondhalfof2024.

Risingfrequencyofnegativeelectricitypricessignals

theurgentneedtoincreasesystemflexibility

Therehasbeenasignificantincreasein2024inthefrequencyofnegative

wholesalepriceeventsinnumerouspowermarkets.Inthefirsthalfofthe

year,theshareofnegativelypricedhoursinSouthernCaliforniawasabove

20%,morethantriplingfromayearbefore.Insomemarkets,suchasSouth

Australia,priceshavebeennegativeforabout20%ofthetimesince2023.

Negativepricesoccurbecausegenerationisnotflexibleenoughduetotechnical,

economic,contractualorregulatoryreasons.Theyindicatethatthedemandside

isnotsufficientlyresponsivetopricesandthatthereisnotenoughstorage

available.Risingfrequencyofnegativepricessendsanurgentsignalthatgreater

flexibilityofsupplyanddemandisneeded.Theappropriateregulatoryframeworks

andmarketdesignswillbeimportanttoallowforanuptakeinflexibilitysolutions

suchasdemandresponseandstorage.

PAGE|9

ElectricityMid-YearUpdateDemand

July2024

Demand:Globalelectricityuseset

togrowmuchfasterin2024-2025

Economicheadwinds,combinedwithaslowdowninmanufacturingactivityand

mildweatherinkeyregions,temperedglobalelectricitydemandin2023toan

averageannualgrowthrateof2.5%,downfrom2.7%in2022.However,world

electricityconsumptionisforecasttoincreaseatamuchhigherpacein2024,with

growthsettoreach4%–thehighestratetheworldhasseensince2007,barring

theexceptionalreboundsin2010afterthefinancialcrisisandin2021following

theCovid-19pandemicdemandcollapse.

Year-on-yearpercentchangeinglobalelectricitydemand,1991-2025

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Asin2023,ChinaandIndiaareontracktopostrobustincreasesinelectricity

demandin2024,drivenbyeconomicgrowthandrisingcoolingneeds.TheUnited

Statesisalsosettoseesignificantdemandgrowth,boostedbystrongereconomic

activity,followingadeclinein2023drivenbymildweather.Aftertwoconsecutive

yearsofdecline,theEuropeanUnion’sdemandisrecovering,albeitatamoderate

pace,asvariousenergy-intensiveindustriesramp-upoperations.Thesustained

increasesinelectricityconsumptionintheseregionsamidrisingelectrification,

combinedwithrobustgrowthinotheremergingeconomies,isexpectedtosupport

globalelectricitydemandin2025atasimilarrateof4%.

PAGE|10

ElectricityMid-YearUpdateDemand

July2024

Year-on-yearpercentchangeinelectricitydemandinselectedregions,2019-2025

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

WorldChinaIndiaSoutheastAsiaUnitedStatesEuropeanUnion

HistoricaldemandUpdatedforecastPreviousforecast(Jan2024)

IEA.CCBY4.0.

ElectricitydemandinChinapropelledhigher

byarapidriseinEVandsolarPVproduction

Followingastrong7%y-o-yincreaseinelectricityconsumptionin2023,growthin

Chinacontinuedatanestimatedrateofaround6.5%inH12024.Forfullyear,

demandgrowthof6.5%isforecast,beforemoderatelyeasingto6.2%in2025.

DespitetheexpectedslowdownintheChineseeconomyandthecontinuing

structuralshifttotowardsbecominglessreliantonheavyindustries,therapidly

expandingproductionofsolarPVmodules,electricvehicles,batteries,andthe

processingofrelatedmaterialsareallsupportingelectricitydemandgrowth.Data

centresand5Gnetworkswithincreasingdigitalisationareotherimportantdrivers.

Overthelastthreeyears,Chinahasbeenaddingonaverageroughlyone

Germanyeachyearintermsofelectricitydemandandthistrendisexpectedto

continuethrough2025.

PAGE|11

ElectricityMid-YearUpdateDemand

July2024

Electricitydemandinselectedregions,1991-2025

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025

ChinaIndiaUnitedStatesEuropeanUnion

IEA.CCBY4.0.

InIndia,followingrobustgrowthover8%in2023,thestrongeconomy,expanding

industrialactivityandintenseheatwavescombinedtoboostelectricitydemand

growthby8.5%y-o-yinthefirsthalfof2024.Weexpectthishighertrendto

continuefortheremainderoftheyear,withannualgrowthaveraging8.2%in2024,

beforeeasingmoderatelyto6.8%in2025inlinewiththeGDPprojections,and

assumingnormalweatherconditions.TheIMFforecastintheirApril2024World

EconomicOutlookthatIndia’sGDPgrowthwillaverage6.8%in2024and6.5%

in2025.Indianpercapitaelectricityconsumptioniscurrently20%ofthatinthe

EuropeanUnion.Alongwithstrongeconomicactivity,purchasingofnew

appliancesandairconditioningunitswillcontinuetosupportelectricitydemand.

Year-on-yearchangeinelectricitydemandinselectedregions,2019-2025

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

-1000

2019202020212022202320242025

ChinaIndiaSoutheastAsiaUnitedStatesEuropeanUnionJapanOthersNetchange

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:Thefiguresfor2024and2025areforecastvalues.

PAGE|12

ElectricityMid-YearUpdateDemand

July2024

Aftera1.6%declinein2023,predominantlyduetomildweather,electricity

demandintheUnitedStatesroseby3.8%inthefirsthalfof2024.Weexpectthis

robustgrowthtrendtocontinuefortheyear,withaverageannualgrowthof3%

y-o-yin2024andat1.9%y-o-yin2025.Thisisanupwardsrevisionfromour

previousforecastof2.5%in2024and0.9%in2025.Onecomponentofthese

gainsistheimprovedGDPoutlookfortheUnitedStates,whichwasrevised

significantlyupwardsintheIMF’sApril2024outlook(2.7%in2024and1.9%in

2025)comparedtotheJanuary2024report(2.1%in2024and1.7%in2025).

Anotherdriverofgrowthisthesteadilyincreasingriseinairconditioning

consumptiongenerally,butespeciallyduetoexpectedwarmertemperatures,as

wellasthesurgeindatacentreexpansions.

Europeanelectricitydemandrecoveringbut

uncertaintyoverthepaceofgrowthremains

TheEuropeanUnion’selectricityconsumptiondecreasedby3.2%in2023,

followinga2.8%declinein2022.Withthesetwoconsecutiveannualdeclines,EU

electricityconsumptionfelltolevelslastseentwodecadesago.Therehasbeen

somedemandrecoveryinthefirsthalfof2024,whichpostedarounda1%y-o-y

increase.Withouttheinfluenceofweather,theincreasewouldhavebeenan

estimated2%.InmostofEurope,theheatingseasoninH12024waswarmer

comparedtothesameperiodin2023andresultedinreducedelectricitydemand.

Bycontrast,NorthernEurope(NordicsandBaltics),hadacolderheatingperiod

duringthesametime,causingdemandforheatinginthatregiontoincrease.

Estimatedyear-on-yearchangeinelectricityconsumptionforheatingintheEuropean

Union,January-May2024

TWh

-14-12-10-8-6-4-202

SouthernEuropeCentralEuropeFranceNorthernEuropeNetchange

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Notes:SouthernEuropeincludes:Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,Greece,Italy,Malta,Portugal,RomaniaandSpain.Central

Europeincludes:Austria,Belgium,Czechia,Germany,Hungary,Luxembourg,Netherlands,Poland,SlovakRepublicand

Slovenia.NorthernEuropeincludes:Denmark,Estonia,Finland,Ireland,Latvia,LithuaniaandSweden.Franceisshown

separatelyduetothelargeshareofelectricheating.

PAGE|13

ElectricityMid-YearUpdateDemand

July2024

Therecoveryinelectricitydemandisexpectedtogatherpaceovertheremainder

oftheyearandnext,withfull-year2024growthincreasingto1.7%andfor2025

byanevenstronger2.6%.Thesignificantrecoveryisfuelledbytherestartor

ramp-upinproductionatmanyenergy-intensiveindustriesthatcurtailed

operationsamidsharplyhigherenergypricesinthe2021-2023period.Moreover,

growthwillbesupportedbycontinuedexpansionofelectrificationinthetransport

andheatingsectors.Nevertheless,uncertaintysurroundsthepaceofthedemand

recoverygoingforwardsincemanyenergy-intensiveindustriescontinuetoremain

vulnerabletocompetitivemarketpressures.Eventhoughenergypriceshave

comedownfromprevioushighs,theyremainelevatedcomparedtopre-Covid

levels.

MonthlyEUelectricitydemand,2021-2024(left),andaveragewholesaleelectricity

pricesintheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStates,2019-2024(right)

250350

240300

230250

220200

210150

200100

19050

1800

2021

EUwholesaleelectricityprice(6MMA)

2023weather-correcteddemand

USwholesaleelectricityprice(6MMA)

2024weather-correcteddemand

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Notes:Inthechartontheleft,2023and2024demandisweather-correctedtothebaseyearof2021forcomparisonpurposes.

The2021demandprofilecorrespondstotherealisednetdemand.Inthechartontheright,theplottedaveragewholesale

pricesare6-monthmovingaverages(6MMA).

Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromEurostat(2024)andEIA(2024).

Someenergy-intensiveindustriesarerestarting

operationsasenergypricesstabilise

InourElectricity2024report,wetrackedtheproductioncutbacksinenergy-

intensiveindustriesintheEuropeanUnionamidsoaringenergyprices,specifically

for2021and2022.Someenergy-intensiveindustrieswereparticularlyaffectedby

risingenergypricesandreducedtheiroutput,withproductionofchemicalsand

primarymetalshitthehardest.Afterpriceseasedinlate2023,signsofarecovery

PAGE|14

ElectricityMid-YearUpdateDemand

July2024

indemandstartedtoemergeacrossregions.Despitethis,productioncurtailments

andcompleteshutdownscontinuetopersistinvariousindustries.

OverallEUindustrialproductionwas3.3%lowerinthefirstfivemonthsof2024

comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.InMay2024,industrialoutputwasdown

by2.5%comparedtoMay2023.InGermany,forexample,thelargesteconomy

inEurope,manufacturingduringthefirstfivemonthsof2024declinedonaverage

by5%comparedtothesameperiodin2023.Atthesametime,energy-intensive

industrialproductionrecoverednear2023levelsintheJanuary-Mayperiod,

havingjumpedby5%fromtherecordlowsobservedinQ42023.However,they

werestill14%below2019levels.InGermany,whileproductionintheenergy-

intensivepaper(+1%)andchemical(+3%)industrieswereupy-o-y,theglass

(-11%)andmetals(-3%)sectorsremainedweaker.Nevertheless,productionin

alltheseenergy-intensiveindustrieswerehighercomparedtoQ42023,showing

anoveralltrendofrecovery.

ProductionindicesofselectedindustriesinGermany,2019-2024

120120

110110

100100

9090

8080

7070

201920202021202220232024201920202021202220232024

PaperandpulpCokingandmineraloil

ManufacturingindustryEnergy-intensiveindustryChemicalsGlassandceramic

Metals

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:Q22024dataisonlytoMay.

Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromFederalStatisticalOfficeofGermany,DESTATIS.

Anumberofenergy-intensiveindustriesintheEuropeanUn