世界鉑金投資協(xié)會-2024年第二季度白金季度（英）

PLATINUMQUARTERLY

Q2202410thSeptember2024

platinum

nvestment

council

tWrd

FOREWORD

ThiseditionofPlatinumQuarterlypresentsplatinumsupplyanddemanddevelopmentsforthesecondquarterof2024andanupdatedforecastforfullyear2024.ItalsoprovidesWPIC’sviewsonrelevantissuesandtrendsforinvestorsconsideringexposuretoplatinumasaninvestmentasset,plusanupdateonhowourproductpartnershipscontinuetomeetinvestorneeds.ThePlatinumQuarterlydataandcommentary(startingonpage6)arepreparedindependentlyforWPICbyMetalsFocus.

Platinummarketdeficittogrowfrom2023to2024

?Inthesecondquarterof2024,theplatinummarketrecordedadeficitof464koz.Thedeficitisforecasttobe1,028kozforfullyear2024,whichfollowsa731kozdeficitin2023.

?Minesupplyof1,570kozinthesecondquarterof2024reacheditshighestlevelsincethefourthquarterof2021.ThesegainswereunderpinnedbySouthAfrica(+7%year-on-year),inpartduetotheprocessingofsemifinishedinventory.However,supplyrisksremainaprominentthemefor2024.Givenminesupplyrestructuringanduncertaintyaroundthepaceoftherecoveryinautomotiverecycling,ourfullyear2024forecastfortotalsupplywasrevisedlowerby22kozversuslastquarter.

?Quarterlyplatinumdemandreachedanalmostfour-yearhighinQ22024followingsignificantinvestmentinflowsofETFholdings(despiteelevatedinterestrates).Forthefullyear2024,globalplatinumdemandisforecasttoincreaseby3%year-on-year,withgrowthfromallkeyend-marketsegments.

?AkeyadditionhasbeenmadetotheWPICdataset,whichnowincludesaseparatelineitemforlargeChineseplatinumbardemand(≥500g),housedwithintheinvestmentdemandsegment.

Platinumsupplyanddemand–secondquartertrendsandupdated2024outlook

Deficitof464kozinQ22024asinvestmentdemandshines

Theplatinummarketsawrobustgrowthforbothsupplyanddemandinthesecondquarterof2024.Minesupplyincreasedby5%year-on-yearto1,570kozinQ22024,largelydrivenbySouthAfrica.Thecountrybenefittedfromamarkedyear-on-yearreductioninloadcurtailmentandimprovedsmelteravailabilityduringthequarter.ThismorethanoffsetlowerRussianandNorthAmericanproductionstemmingfromplannedsmeltermaintenance.Recyclingincreasedby1%year-on-yearto388kozinQ22024.Althoughautomotiverecyclingsupplyincreasedby2%year-on-year,scrapaggregatorscontinuetohighlightchallengessecuringsufficientfeedstock,withlingeringsuggestionsofhoardingbyscrapyards.TotalsupplyinQ22024cameto1,958koz,up4%overlastyearandup22%comparedtothepriorquarter,reflectingminesupplyseasonality.

Quarterlydemandof2,421kozinQ22024reachedafour-yearhigh.Demandincreasedby13%comparedtoayearearlierduetoasharpuptickinplatinumETFholdings(+444koz).ETFinvestorsweredrawntoplatinumduetoitsincreasingdiscounttogold,expectationsforinterestrateseasing,andplatinum’sstrongunderlyingfundamentals,reflectedinconsensusforecastsforamarketdeficitin2024.Elsewhere,platinumdemandprovedresilientduringQ22024.Automotivedemandwasup1%year-on-yearasrecenttrendssuchasplatinumforpalladiumsubstitutionandhigher-for-longerICE-basedvehicledemandpersisted.Jewellerydemandincreasedby5%year-on-year,withonlyNorthAmericarecordinglowerdemand(-1%year-on-year),albeitoffahigh-base.Industrialplatinumdemanddecreasedby4%year-on-yearinQ22024,almostentirelyduetoweakerchemicaldemand(-48%year-on-year)followingfewerplantcommissioningsasChinamovesbeyondaperiodofelevatedcapacityinvestment.

Thenetimpactwasasignificantquarterlymarketdeficitof464kozinQ22024.

?2024WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?.Allrightsreserved.

Page1of27

PLATINUMQUARTERLYQ22024

Annualtotalsupplyandchanges2022to2024f(koz)

52-218

7,327

7,160-107

367,089

7,500

7,000

6,500

2022TotalminingsupplyRecycling2023TotalminingsupplyRecycling2024f

Source:MetalsFocus

Updated2024outlook–platinummarketdeficitof1,028kozonsuppressedsupplyandgrowingdemand

Totalminesupplyisforecasttodeclineby2%year-on-yearto5,508kozin2024.Barringtheone-offimpactsfromprotractedstrikesin2014andCOVIDin2020,totalminesupplyin2024isexpectedtobeatitslowestlevelwithinourtimeseriesdatingbackto2013.Notably,refinedproductionisexpectedtobeloweracrosseachofSouthAfrica,Zimbabwe,RussiaandNorthAmerica.SouthAfricanoutputwillbenegativelyimpactedbyannouncedrestructuringplans,shaft/sectionclosuresandslowerthanpreviouslyexpectedproductionramp-ups.AlthoughtheRussianminesupplyforecasthasbeenrevisedupby37kozduetobetter-than-expectedyear-to-dateperformance,fullyearproductionattheupperendofNornickel’s2024guidancewillstillbelowerthanoutputfor2023duetoplannedsmeltermaintenance.Recyclingsupplyisexpectedtoremainconstrainedin2024,albeitwithaforecastyear-on-yearincreaseof36kozin2024(+2%).Automotiverecyclingcontinuestobeimpactedbyalackofqualityfeedstockduetosourcingheadwindsandhoarding.Theresultisthattotalplatinumsupplyfor2024isforecasttodecrease1%versus2023(-71koz)andat7,089kozwillbe8%lowerthanaveragesupplyoverthepasttenyears.

Investmentdemandhasseensignificantchangesforthesecondconsecutivequarter.BuildingontheinclusionofChinabarandcoindemandasaseparatelineiteminourpreviousPlatinumQuarterly,platinuminvestmentdemandnowincludesChinademandforbarsequaltoorlargerthan500g(previouslycapturedbythebalanceandeffectivelytreatedaspartoftheinventorybuild/release),whichisexpectedtototal188kozin2024.Elsewhere,thefullyearforecastforchangesinplatinumETFholdingshasbeenrevisedfroma-120kozoutflowtoa+150kozinflowfollowingasharpuptickinholdingsthroughthesecondquarter.Totalplatinuminvestmentdemandisforecasttoreach517kozin2024,up15%year-on-yearwithETFinflowsandstrongChinesebarandcoindemandoffsettingweaknessinbarandcoindemandfromothermarkets.

Havingtrendedlowerformanyyears,andthereforesomewhatsurprisingly,platinumjewelleryunderpinsoneofthelargestabsolutecontributionstototalplatinumdemandgrowthfor2024.Jewellerydemandisforecasttoincreaseby126kozor7%year-on-yearto1,994kozin2024.Jewellerydemandgrowthisexpectedtobegeographicallybroad-basedwiththepricedifferentialtogoldasupportingfactor.WhileIndiaisagainforecasttorecordstand-outgrowthof28%year-on-year,Chinaisexpectedtobuckalong-standingdecliningtrendinitsjewellerydemandanddelivergrowthof3%year-on-year.For2024,automotiveplatinumdemandisbenefittingfromongoingplatinumforpalladiumsubstitution,higherheavy-dutyplatinumdemandandhybridisationtrends,whicharecumulativelyoffsettingarisinglight-dutyelectricvehiclemarketshare.Totalindustrialdemandisforecasttogrowby1%year-on-yearto2,369kozwithfewernewplantcommissioningsinthechemicalsectorbeingoffsetbyalargernumberofnewglassproductionfacilitiesbeingbroughtonline.However,headlineindustrialplatinumdemandin2024remainselevatedversuspre-COVIDlevels.Thenetimpactisfortotalplatinumdemandof8,118kozin2024,up3%versus2023and4%higherthanaverageplatinumdemandoverthepasttenyears.

Combiningthesupplyanddemandoutlookresultsinaprojectedplatinummarketdeficitfor2024of1,028kozwhichis365kozhigherthanourpreviousPlatinumQuarterlydeficit(afteradjustingfortheinclusionofChinesedemandfor≥500gplatinumbarswithinthisPlatinumQuarterly).Notably,the2024marketdeficitisequivalentto13%ofannualplatinumdemandandreflectsasecondconsecutiveyearofmeaningfulplatinummarketdeficits.

?2024WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?.Allrightsreserved.

Page2of27

PLATINUMQUARTERLYQ22024

Annualtotaldemandandchanges2022to2024f(koz)

12612668,118

9687,89222m·m-:

446-3141

6,467

6,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

2022AutomotiveJewelleryIndustrialInvestment2023AutomotiveJewellerySource:MetalsFocus

Annualplatinumsupply/demandbalances(koz)

IndustrialInvestment2024f

140

675

1,337

860

-731

-888

-193

-355

-485

-750

2013

-810

2014

-1,028

2016

20172018

20192020

20212022

20232024f

2015

Source:SFA(Oxford)2013-2018,MetalsFocus2019-2024f

Theplatinuminvestmentcase–entrenchingmarketdeficits

Platinum’sinvestmentcaseisunderpinnedbyacompellingmixofresilientdemandandweaksupply,whichtogetherresultinpersistentmarketdeficitswithongoingdrawdownsfromrapidlydepletingabovegroundstocksneededtobalancethemarket.

Theglobaleconomicoverlay,asitpertainstoplatinum,maypresentmixedsignals.Industrialisedmarketcentralbankshave,orareexpectedto,initiateinterestratecutsasinflationratesnormaliseamidgrowingeconomicuncertainty.Platinuminvestmentdemandshouldproveabeneficiaryofdecliningratesastheopportunitycostofholdinganon-yieldingassetreduces.Furthermore,platinumpriceshaveonbalanceyieldedpositivereturnswithintwelve-monthsoftheUSFed’sfirstcutinthecycleoverthepastfourinterestratecycles.Withinthiscontext,onewouldexpectsentimenttoimproveforphysicalplatinuminvestmentproducts.

Deterioratingeconomicgrowthcanbeanotherprecursorforaninterestratecuttingcycle.Tothispoint,wenoteongoinguncertaintyaroundChina’seconomicoutlookgivenweakconsumersentimentstemmingfromanindebtedpropertysectorandavolatiledomesticstockmarketperformance.Furthermore,Europeangrowthislacklustre,weigheddownsomewhatbyGermany.ConverselytheUShas,albeitwithhelpfromarisingfiscaldeficit,deliveredresilienteconomicgrowththrough2024.Againstthismixedmacroeconomicbackdrop,platinum’sdemandresiliencecouldbe,andoftenis,underappreciated,andwewouldnotethatdemandgrowthrateswouldlikelybehigherinanormalisedeconomicenvironment.

Lookingattheautomotivesector,platinumdemandisforecasttoincreaseby1%year-on-yearin2024,reachingitshighestlevelsince2017.Comparedtoexpectationsatthestartof2024,prevailingeconomicconditionshaveledtoweakerheavy-dutyvehicle

?2024WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?.Allrightsreserved.

Page3of27

PLATINUMQUARTERLYQ22024

demand,howeverthathasbeenoffsetbytrendsinthelight-dutysegment.Economicconsiderationsmaybemagnifyingbatteryelectricvehicle(BEV)affordabilitybarriers(alongsideotherconcerns).WhilstBEVdemandisstillgrowing,marketsharegainshavewitnessedamarkedslowdown.TheBEVlight-dutymarketshareisnowforecasttoincreasefrom11%in2023to13%in2024(comparedtoaninitial15%marketshareforecast).Notably,theweaknessinBEVsalesisnotafunctionofbroadmarketweaknessbutratherconsumersturningtomoreaffordablecombustionengineorhybriddrivetrainoptions.Thenarrativeofhigher-for-longerPGMautomotivedemandiscertainlyentrenchingitselfwithininvestor’sconsiderations;each1%changeinlight-vehiclemarketshareforICE-baseddrivetrainsrepresentsaround21kozofplatinumdemand.Elsewhere,prioreconomicdecisionstosubstituteplatinumforpalladiumcontinuesupportingincrementalplatinumdemand(2024:752koz)despitethemetalsreachingpriceparityduringQ12024.Thesedesigns(withhigherplatinumloadings)willlikelyberevisitedonlyafterattheendofproductionrunofthecurrentmodels.

Althoughitsimportancetotheoverallpicturehasshrunkoverthepasttenyears,platinumjewellerystillrepresentsaround25%oftotaldemand,despitewhichitisoftenunderappreciatedasademandsource.Therearetentativesignsthatthemarketmaybepassingthroughthistrough.Globalplatinumjewellerydemandisforecasttoincreaseby7%year-on-yearto1,994kozin2024,whichrepresentsafive-yearhigh,andisonthecuspofagainbreachingtwo-millionouncesannually;jewellery’shighwater-markwasthree-millionouncesin2014.WhileIndiawillbethelargestincrementaldriverofjewellerydemandgrowth,itisnotablethatallgeographiesareexpectedtoexperiencedemandgrowthin2024,withakeythemebeingplatinum’srelativecostattractivenesscomparedtogoldjewellery.

Whenconsideringindustrialplatinumdemand,thekeythemeisagainthereiterationofplatinum’ssurprisingdemandresilience.Totalindustrialplatinumdemandisforecasttoincreasebyamodest1%year-on-yearin2024.Chemicaldemand(-244kozyear-on-year)isnormalisingafterfiveyearsofaggressivecapacityexpansionsinChina,however,platinum’suseinmanysub-sectorsismorethanoffsettingtheslowdowninthechemicalplantstart-ups.Totalindustrialplatinumdemandremains2%abovethetrailingfive-yearaverageand17%higherthanthepre-COVIDfive-yearaverage.

InvestmentdemandisanareathatsurprisedtotheupsideinQ2,withexceptionalETFinflowstotalling437kozoverAprilandMay.AlthoughwehaveseensomeunwindingofETFpositionsoverQ3to-date,atthetimeofwritingETFholdingsareup~290kozyear-to-date(+9.6%).Wedonothavespecificinsightsintowhathasdriventheseinvestmentflows,butitseemslikelythattherehasbeenanelementofprofittakingfromgold(whichhasperformedexceptionallystrongly)andarotationintoasimilarunderlyingassetwithattractiveunderlyingfundamentals.Intermsofbarandcoindemand,ongoingweaknessindemandinJapan,wheretheforecastisfornetdisposals)andtoalesserextentNorthAmerica,isbeingmorethanoffsetbycontinuedgrowthinChinesedemand.ThisisinnolargepartduetotheeffortsofWPICandourproductpartnersinrapidlygrowinganewmarket.Forthefirsttime,thePlatinumQuarterlydatasetincludesthesaleofbarsof500gandlargerinChina;thisisnot‘newdemand’perse,itisjustmovingfromsittingwithinabovegroundstockstoabovetheline.However,thepaceofgrowthindemandfortheseproductsisnotable(+49%and+40%year-on-yearin2023and2024).

Turningtotheotheraspectofplatinum’sinvestmentcase,whichistheuncertainsupplyoutlook.Therearetwocomponentstoplatinumsupplyuncertainty,namely,downsideriskstominesupplyandthetimingofanyrecoverytorecycling.PlatinumminershaveimplementedrestructuringeffortsandcapitaldefermentprogramstoeasemarginpressurestemmingfromlowPGMbasketprices.Basedonpublicannouncements,weestimatethatSouthAfrica’sPGMminingindustrywillhavereduceditsheadcountbyaround10,000employeesin2024.This6%headcountreductionishigherthanourforecastthatSouthAfricanplatinumproductiondeclinesby2%year-on-yearin2024.AlthoughSouthAfricanminershavemetproductionguidancesofarthrough2024,whenashrinkingworkforceisconsideredinconjunctionwithlowercapitalexpenditure,itincreasestheriskofproductionerosioninthefuture.ItisworthnotingthatSouthAfricanplatinumproductionhasdeclinedby1.7%CAGRsince2006whichisillustrativeofthechallengesfacingprimaryplatinumsupply.Lookingatrecycling,assuggestedabove,therecoveryappearstobeatimingissueaschallengessuchasspentcatalystsupplyconstraints,hoardingandregulatoryhurdlesarelikelytoberesolved.However,ifthesechallengesareaddressed,recycledplatinumsupplycouldtosomeextenthelpeaseprojectedmarketdeficits.

Overallforplatinum,themarket’ssentimenttowardattractivefundamentalsappearstobegraduallyimproving,althoughthishasnotbeenmatchedbyaplatinumpricereaction.However,withtime,marketdeficitsstemmingfromhigher-for-longerautomotivedemandandongoingsupplychallengeswillmeanthatabovegroundstocksarethesupplyoflastresort.Thedepletionofabove-groundstocks(-37%between2022to2024)shouldtightenphysicalmarketsandwillresultinplatinum’sstrongunderlyingfundamentalsplayingamoreprominentroleinestablishingitsmarketvalue.

?2024WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?.Allrightsreserved.

Page4of27

PLATINUMQUARTERLYQ22024

WPICinitiativeshighlights

Wecontinuetogrowthenumberandgeographiccoverageofourproductpartnerships,which,inadditiontoincreasingchoicesforinvestors,providesuswiththeabilitytoidentifymarketdevelopmentsandappropriatestrategiestoincreaseinvestmentinplatinum.

InEuropeandNorthAmerica,ourpartnersareoperatinginanenvironmentofreducednetdemandforgoldasinvestorssellingbackgoldproductsaremeetingalargeportionofgrossdemand.Inaddition,theriseinthegoldpricehasincreasedfundingcostsandstretchedretailerbalancesheets.Consequently,barandcoindealersareshowinggrowinginterestinplatinumwhichhaslowerstockholdingcostsandprovidesinvestorssellingbackgoldwithaninterestingpreciousmetalalternative.Oureffortstohelpourpartnersincreasetheirclients’insightsintotheinvestmentcaseforplatinumhavebeenhelpfulinthisregard.Wehavefurtherincreasedpartnersalesforceandclienttrainingprogrammes,toenhancetheawarenessandunderstandingofplatinumforgoldinvestors.

InChina,weobservedstrongdemandforplatinuminvestmentduringthesecondquarter,with58kozouncesinsalesforyear-over-yeargrowthofover100%.Oneofourpartnersintroducedlarge-sizedinvestment-gradeplatinumjewellery(Pt9995),expandingstrategicallyintoinvestmentproductswithajewelleryaesthetic.Wehelpedourpartnersdiversifytheirplatinumproductrangeswithinnovativedesigns,makingthemmorecompetitiveinthemarketandmoreappealingtoconsumers.WeranasuccessfulmarketingcampaignwithChinaGoldCoinGroupforits3-gramPlatinumPandaforthethirdyearinarow,whichstrengthenedourpartnershipandresultedinawiderrangeofplatinumofferings.TheannualShanghaiPlatinumWeekinJulywasatremendoussuccess,attractingover500delegatesfrommorethan300organizationsandsignificantlyimpactingtheindustry.Astonishingly,thelivestreamofthefirstdayoftheconferencewaswatchedbyalmost500,000peopleonline!

WealsoorganizedaPGMsessionincollaborationwithSBMAduringthe7thAsiaPacificPreciousMetalConference,drawingover500delegates,whichincreasedawarenessofplatinumandourvisibilityintheregion.Ourpartner,SilverBullioninSingapore,experiencedgrowthinplatinumsalesdespitefacingchallengesinthesupplychain.

IntheJapanesemarket,platinumpricemovementsaffectedinvestorsentiment.TherewasanetoutflowobservedinQ2,coincidingwithanincreaseinplatinumpricesinyenterms.However,aslightpricedownturninJuneledtoanoticeablereboundinsales,indicatingthatthe‘buy-lowandsellhigh’strategyisstillstronglyinplaceamonginvestorsinJapan.Additionally,wesponsoredRakuten’s25thanniversaryeventinJulyanddeliveredkeynotespeechesjointlywithJBMA,whichattractedmorethan7,000investorsfromacrossJapan.

TrevorRaymond,CEO

Contents

Foreword

1

ExpandedTables

18

SummaryTable

6

GlossaryofTerms

23

SecondQuarter2024Review

7

CopyrightandDisclaimer

27

2024Outlook

12

?2024WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?.Allrightsreserved.

Page5of27

PLATINUMQUARTERLYQ22024

ground

Table1:Supply,demandandabovestocksummary

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024f

2023/2022

2024f/2023

Q12024

Q22024

Growth%

Growth%

PlatinumSupply-demandBalance(koz)

SUPPLY

RefinedProduction

4,988

6,295

5,520

5,604

5,508

2%

-2%

1,224

1,540

SouthAfrica

3,298

4,678

3,915

3,957

3,883

1%

-2%

794

1,126

Zimbabwe

448

485

480

507

504

6%

-1%

132

125

NorthAmerica

337

273

263

275

273

5%

-1%

71

61

Russia

704

652

663

674

646

2%

-4%

178

181

Other

200

206

200

190

203

-5%

7%

48

48

Increase(-)/Decrease(+)inProducerInventory

-84

-93

+43

+11

+0

-74%

-100%

+9

+30

TotalMiningSupply

4,904

6,202

5,563

5,615

5,508

1%

-2%

1,233

1,570

Recycling

1,996

2,107

1,764

1,545

1,581

-12%

2%

377

388

Autocatalyst

1,508

1,619

1,323

1,144

1,161

-14%

2%

275

297

Jewellery

422

422

372

331

344

-11%

4%

85

72

Industrial

66

67

69

71

76

3%

8%

17

19

TotalSupply

6,900

8,309

7,327

7,160

7,089

-2%

-1%

1,610

1,958

DEMAND

Automotive

2,275

2,492

2,769

3,215

3,237

16%

1%

822

820

Autocatalyst

2,275

2,492

2,769

3,215

3,237

16%

1%

822

820

Non-road

?

?

?

?

?

N/A

N/A

?

?

Jewellery

1,830

1,953

1,899

1,868

1,994

-2%

7%

484

501

Industrial

2,102

2,532

2,315

2,356

2,369

2%

1%

627

638

Chemical

633

663

673

786

542

17%

-31%

145

122

Petroleum

109

169

193

158

153

-18%

-3%

38

38

Electrical

130

135

106

89

90

-16%

1%

22

23

Glass

473

753

505

432

635

-14%

47%

195

216

Medical

256

267

278

292

303

5%

4%

72

77

HydrogenStationaryandOther

28

17

12

29

64

133%

123%

12

14

Other

473

528

548

571

582

4%

2%

142

148

Investment

1,582

-3

-516

451

517

N/A

15%

117

462

ChangeinBars,Coins

593

349

259

323

180

25%

-44%

64

17

ChinaBars≥500g

23

27

90

134

188

49%

40%

53

41

ChangeinETFHoldings

507

-241

-558

-20

150

N/A

N/A

11

444

ChangeinStocksHeldbyExchanges

458

-139

-307

14

0

N/A

-100%

-11

-40

TotalDemand

7,789

6,972

6,467

7,892

8,118

22%

3%

2,051

2,421

Balance

-888

1,337

860

-731

-1,028

N/A

N/A

-441

-464

AboveGroundStocks

2,569**

3,906

4,765

4,034

3,006

-15%

-25%

Source:MetalsFocus2020-2024.Notes:

1.**AboveGroundStocks3,650kozasof31December2018(MetalsFocus).

2.?Non-roadautomotivedemandisincludedinautocatalystdemand.

3.Allestimatesarebasedonthelatestavailableinformation,buttheyaresubjecttorevisioninsubsequentquarterlyreports.

4.TheWPICdidnotpublishquarterlyestimatesfor2013orthefirsttwoquartersof2014.However,quarterlyestimatesfromQ32014,toQ12021arecontainedinpreviouslypublishedPQswhicharefreelyavailableontheWPICwebsite.

5.QuarterlyestimatesfromQ22021andhalf-yearlyestimatesfromH22020areincludedinTables3and4respectively,onpages19and20(supply,demandandabovegroundstocks).DetailsofregionalrecyclingsupplyinTable6onpage22areonlypublishedfrom2019.

PreparedforWorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncilbyMetalsFocusLimited(2019onwards)andprioryearsbySFA(Oxford)

Page6of27

PLATINUMQUARTERLYQ22024

2024SECONDQUARTERPLATINUMMARKETREVIEW

TheplatinummarketfellintoasignificantdeficitinQ2’24.InvestorsincreasedtheirETFholdingsassoaringgoldpricesmadeplatinumappearundervalued,especiallygivenitsstronglong-termfundamentals.InvestmentdemandjumpedtoitshighestlevelsincethepeakofthepandemicinQ3’20,whilequarterlyjewellerydemandbreached500kozforthefirsttimesinceQ4’21.Meanwhile,automotivedemandandindustrialdemandremainedsteady.Thesefactorsresultedintotaldemandof2,421kozduringQ2.24.Despiteastrongquarterformineproductionandstabilisingsecondarysupply,at1,958kozglobalsupplyfellwellshortofdemand,resultingina464kozdeficit.

Chart1:Supply-demandbalance,koz,Q22024

-464

1,958

2,421

TotalSupplySource:MetalsFocus

BalanceTotalDemand

Supply

Refinedminesupplyexperienceda4%year-on-yearincreaseto1,540koz,duetogrowthfromSouthAfrica,whichoffsetdeclinesfromotherregions.SouthAfrica’soutputroseby7%year-on-yearto1,126koz,underpinnedbyhigherrefiningvolumesfromAngloAmericanPlatinum(Amplats)andImpalaPlatinum(Implats).

Amplats’productionbenefitedfromtheprocessingofsemi-finishedinventory,withrefinedoutputsurpassingunderlyingmineproduction.Aspartofitscost-savinginitiatives,AmplatsplaceditsMortimersmelteroncareandmaintenanceinApril,leavingthreesmeltersinoperation.However,thecompanyanticipatesthatthereconfigurationofitsprocessingoperationswillhaveminimalimpactonoverallproduction.Implats’outputwasaffectedbythescheduledrebuildofFurnaceNo.5attheImpalaRustenburgfacility,whichwasrecommissionedinApril.However,theabsenceofloadcurtailment,whichhadimpactedQ2’23,resultedinanincreaseinoutput.

Zimbabwe’soutputremainedstableyear-on-yearat125koz,asadeclineatZimplatswasoffsetbygrowthatUnki.InRussia,productionfellby5%year-on-yearto181koz,primarilyduetolowerplatinumcontentinNornickel’sPGMoresources.ThecompanyiscurrentlyundertakingmaintenanceonFurnace#2attheNadezhdaMetallurgicalPlant,withtheimpactonplatinumproductionexpectedtobereflectedinthesecondhalfoftheyear.

NorthAmericanproductiondeclinedby17%year-on-yearto61koz.ThiswasprimarilyduetoreducedoutputfromVale’sby-productnickelmining,whichinturnstemmedfromplannedmaintenanceofprocessinginfrastructure.Sibanye-Stillwaterannouncedon11thJulythatacyber-attackhadimpacteditsglobalITsystems,delayingthereleaseofoperatingresults.WhilesomedisruptiontoUSPGMoperationswasreported,thefullimpactonproductionvolumesremainsundetermined.

Recycling

DuringQ2’24,globalrecyclingremainedbroadlysteadycomparedtoQ2’23,risingbyjust1%year-on-year(+4koz).Thiswasdrivenbyaslightincreaseinspentautocatalystrecycling,whichhelpedoffsetdeclinesinbothjewelleryandelectronicscrap.Withstable-to-marginalgainsincollectionsacrossmostregionsa