亞開(kāi)行-促進(jìn)氣候恢復(fù)力和碳中和的擬議生命周期方法：以塔吉克斯坦公路分項(xiàng)為例（英）

PROPOSEDLIFECYCLE

APPROACHFORPROMOTINGCLIMATERESILIENCEAND

CARBONNEUTRALITY

CASEOFTHEROADSUBSECTORINTAJIKISTAN

RikaIdei,MichaelAnyala,ClaudioAngelino,JennaroB.Odoki,andJürgGrütter

NO.95

September2024

ADBSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENTWORKINGPAPERSERIES

ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK

ADBSustainableDevelopmentWorkingPaperSeries

ProposedLifeCycleApproachfor

PromotingClimateResilienceandCarbonNeutrality:CaseoftheRoadSubsectorinTajikistan

RikaIdei,MichaelAnyala,ClaudioAngelino,JennaroB.Odoki,andJürgGrütter

No.95|September2024

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RikaIdeiisaseniortransportspecialistandMichaelAnyalaisaseniortransportspecialist(roadasset

management)attheTransportSectorOffice,SectorsGroup,AsianDevelopmentBank.

ClaudioAngelinoisaninternationalconsultantintheareaofroadengineering.

JennaroB.Odokiisthemanagingdirectorof

InfrastructureManagementandEngineeringServicesLimited.

JürgGrütterisfromGrütterConsulting.

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CONTENTS

TABLESANDFIGURES

iv

ABOUTTHEAUTHORS

v

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

vi

ABBREVIATIONS

vii

WEIGHTSANDMEASURES

vii

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

viii

I.BACKGROUND1

II.ROADENGINEERINGDESIGNANDCONSTRUCTIONEFFORTS6

A.InteractionsBetweenClimateChangeandRoadEngineering6

B.RoadLifeCycle8

C.ConsiderationofClimateChangeinRoadEngineeringPractices8

D.PossibleRoadEngineeringMeasuresforPromotingClimateResilience12

andCarbonNeutrality

E.ActionsandRecommendationsinRoadEngineeringDesignandConstruction17

forClimateResilienceandCarbonNeutrality

III.ROADMAINTENANCEPRACTICES18

A.CurrentPractices,Issues,andFindings18

B.DecarbonizationEffectsofPossibleMeasuresattheMaintenanceStage20

C.ActionsandRecommendationsinRoadMaintenanceforClimateResilience33

andCarbonNeutrality

IV.PROMOTIONOFE-MOBILITYINTHEROADSUBSECTOR34

A.InternationalContext34

B.NationalContext36

C.MeasurestoFosterE-Mobility39

D.ActionsandRecommendationsforPromotingtheDemandofElectricVehicles44

forRoadAuthoritiesinTajikistan

V.RECOMMENDATIONS48

REFERENCES52

TABLESANDFIGURES

TABLES

1

Tajikistan’sGreenhouseGasEmissionsTargetsintheUpdatedNationally3

DeterminedContribution

2

ClimateChangeEventsandPotentialImpactsonRoadsinTajikistan7

3

MainClimaticItemsConsideredinRoadDesignCodesandStandardsinEurope10

4

ExamplesofRegulationsIncorporatingClimateResilienceandDecarbonization10

inEuropeanCountries

5

EstimatedRoadWorksEmissionFactors20

6

AverageTrafficCompositionAcrosstheNetwork21

7

ImpactofUnderinvestmentonRoadNetworkMaintenanceonCarbonEmissions23

8

AdoptedWorkMaintenanceStandards24

9

AdoptedEnergyConsumptionbyVehicleType26

10

ComparisonofPerformance-BasedContractsandTraditionalWorkTypes27

11

ComparisonofCarbonEmissionsforPerformance-BasedContractsVersus27

TraditionalContracts

12

ComparisonofAverageNetworkConditionsforPerformance-BasedContracts27

VersusTraditionalContracts

13

ComparisonofTypicalWorksTriggerLevelsforTimelyandDelayedMaintenance28

14

ImpactofDelayedMaintenanceonCarbonEmissionsLevels28

15

ComparisonofTypicalTerrains29

16

ImpactofTerrainonCarbonEmissionsLevels29

17

ComparisonoftheFuelConsumptionandPowerOutputRatioforOldVersusNewEquipment32

18

ProjectedInvestmentsinPublicChargingInfrastructurefortheElectricVehicleScenario44

19

ProposedStrategyforPassengerCarChargeHubsonMainInterurbanRoads47

20

ProjectedNumberofChargeHubsandInvestmentVolume47

FIGURES

1

HistoricalGreenhouseGasEmissionsinTajikistan2

2

MajorAspectstobeTakenintoAccountThroughouttheRoadLifeCycle4

3

DirectandIndirectGreenhouseGasEmissionsofRoads6

4

ImpactofPavedRoadConditiononNetworkVehicularGreenhouseGasEmissions22

5

ImpactofUnpavedRoadConditiononNetworkVehicularGreenhouseGasEmissions22

6

AnnualCarbonEmissionBecauseofRoadMaintenanceWorksbyBudgetScenario24

7

TotalCombinedAnnualCarbonEmissionsfromPavedRoadNetwork25

BecauseofVehicleOperationandRoadMaintenanceWorks

8

ComparisonofCarbonEmissionswithandWithoutElectricVehiclesintheNetwork26

9

ImpactonSpeedonCarbonDioxideEmissionsatMaintenanceWorkZones30

10

GlobalBatteryElectricVehicleStock,2015–202335

11

ExpectedBatteryPackPrices,2025–203036

12

ProjectedCarsperThousandInhabitants37

13

TotalCostofOwnershipofaDieselandElectric12-MeterUrbanBusforTajikistan

38

14

ResultsofStakeholderSurveysConcerningPerceptionofElectricVehiclesinTajikistan39

15

ProjectedGreenhouseGasEmissionsintheRoadSubsectorinTajikistan42

16

ProjectedElectricityConsumptionofElectricVehiclesunderanElectricVehicleScenario43

17

ProjectedPublicChargerNumbersforElectricVehicles44

18

ActionMapforPromotingClimateResilienceandCarbonNeutrality51

intheRoadSubsectorinTajikistan

ABOUTTHEAUTHORS

RikaIdeiisaseniortransportspecialistattheTransportSectorOffice,SectorsGroup,AsianDevelopmentBank(ADB).Forabout10years,shehasbeeninvolvedintransportsectoroperationsinCentralandWestAsiancountries,includingTajikistan,inareasofclimatechange,decarbonization,transportnetworkdevelopment,andsectorplanning.

MichaelAnyalaisaseniortransportspecialist(roadassetmanagement)attheTransportSectorOffice,SectorsGroup,ADB.Hecollaborateswithdevelopmentorganizations,governmentinstitutions,theprivatesector,andresearchinstitutionsinemergingroadsubsectorareas.InADB,heprovidespolicyguidance,fostersnewinvestmentopportunities,andleadsprojectpreparationandexecution.

ClaudioAngelinoisageotechnicalengineerwhospecializesinnaturalhazardmitigationforawiderangeofinfrastructure.Withexperienceinmorethan20countries,hisconsultingactivitiesincludestudies,design,andsitesupervisionforroads,railways,watertreatmentplants,largemonitoringplans,bridges,dams,andcanals.

JennaroB.OdokiisthemanagingdirectorofInfrastructureManagementandEngineeringServicesLimited(UnitedKingdom),withexpertiseinroadassetmanagement.Hehasspentthelast25yearsworkingonmodelingtheimpactofclimatechangeonroadinfrastructureandgreenhousegasemissionsfromroadtransportoperations.

JürgGrütter,thechiefexecutiveofficerofGrutterConsulting,hasworkedformorethan30yearslinkingsustainabletransporttoclimatefinance.Hehasworkedone-mobilityprojectsinmorethan40countries,particularlythedevelopmentofroadmapsandpoliciesandtheimplementationofinvestmentprojectsinvariousvehiclecategories.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

ThispaperwasproducedaspartoftechnicalassistancetoTajikistanforCapacityBuildingSupporttotheMinistryofTransportforBetterPlanningandImplementation.ThepreparationofthepublicationwasledbyRikaIdei(seniortransportspecialist,TransportSectorOffice,SectorsGroup[SG-TRA])withthehelpofFarrukhNuriddinov(seniorprojectofficer,SG-TRA);andShuhratNurubloev,coordinatorforthetechnicalassistance.TheexpertswhocontributedtothispaperwereClaudioAngelinoforChapterII,JennaroOdokiforChapterIII,andJürgGrütterforChapterIV.MichaelAnyala(seniortransportspecialist[roadassetmanagement],SG-TRA)providedsupportduringthefinalizingofthepaper.

ChenChen(director,CentralandWestAsia,EastAsia,andthePacificTeam,SG-TRA);ShannyCampbell(countrydirector,TajikistanResidentMission[TJRM]);andMasahiroNishimura(unithead,projectadministration,SG-TRA)providedsupportanddirectiontotheteamwhilepreparingthepaper.

Thepapergreatlybenefitedfrominternalreviewersandtwoexternalreviewers:HenryKerali(retiredWorldBankcountrydirector)andJinMurakami(assistantprofessorofurbanstudiesandpolicyintheHumanities,ArtsandSocialSciencesClusterattheSingaporeUniversityofTechnologyandDesign).

MaureenMamayson(projectofficer,SG-TRA);WendyMontealto(associateoperationsanalyst,SG-TRA);KatherineMaeRaro(senioroperationsassistant,SG-TRA);andMufaraHamidova(seniorprojectassistant,TJRM)supportedtheteamindevelopingthepaper.

TheteamalsoappreciatesthecontributionsofthegovernmentagenciesinTajikistanforprovidingdataandinformationandofferingvaluableopinionsduringconsultationworkshopsunderthetechnicalassistance.

ABBREVIATIONS

ADB

–

AsianDevelopmentBank

CO2

–

carbondioxide

COP

–

UNClimateChangeConference

EU

–

EuropeanUnion

EV

–

electricvehicle

GHG

–

greenhousegas

GUSAD

–

GovernmentAutomobileRoadEstablishment

GWP

–

globalwarmingpotential

HDM-4

–

HighwayDevelopmentandManagementModelFour

HDV

–

heavy-dutyvehicle

HOV

–

highoccupancyvehicle

ICE

–

internalcombustionengine

IEA

–

InternationalEnergyAgency

MOT

–

MinistryofTransport

NBS

–

nature-basedsolution

NDC

–

nationallydeterminedcontribution

NOx

–

nitrogenoxide

PBC

–

performance-basedmaintenancecontract

PM2.5

–

particulatematteroflessthan2.5micronsindiameter

PRC

–

People’sRepublicofChina

RAP

–

reclaimedasphaltpavement

RAMS

–

roadassetmanagementsystem

UN

–

UnitedNations

WEIGHTSANDMEASURES

°C

–

degreeCelsius

kg

–

kilogram

km

–

kilometer

kW

–

kilowatt

MtCO2e

–

metrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent

MW

–

megawatt

μg/m3

–

microgramscubicmeter

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Tajikistanisalandlockedcountrywithchallengingtopographicconditionsthatoftenexposetransportinfrastructuretovariousrisksassociatedwithextremeclimatechangeevents.Thecountryrequiresmeasurestoprotecttransportassetsfromsucheventsandensurethesafeandyear-roundmovementofpeopleandgoods,eitherinternationalordomestic.Meanwhile,inresponsetothecountry’scommitmenttotheParisAgreement,itstransportsectorfacesanimmediateneedtoadoptmeasuresforpromotingcarbonneutralitysincethesectoraccountsforabout10%ofgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsinthecountryandisconsideredamajorcontributortotheemissions.Inthecountry’snationallydeterminedcontribution(NDC),updatedin2021,thetransportsectorisaprioritysectorrequiringeffortstopromoteclimateresilienceandmitigateGHGemissionsforthecountry’ssustainableandefficientdevelopment.

Thispaperaimstoexplorethepossibilityofpromotingclimateresilienceandcarbonneutralitythroughoutthelifecycleofroadinfrastructureandidentifypotentialsolutions.Theroadsubsectoristhedominanttransportsubsectorinthecountrybecauseofunderdevelopedrailwaysandaviationinfrastructure,implyingthatitisresponsibleformostofthetransportsector’sGHGemissions.Theworkingpaperprovidesdiscussionsthatspantheroadinfrastructure’slifecycle:engineeringdesign,construction,rehabilitation,maintenance,andoperation.Thisapproachisalignedwiththecountry’supdatedNDC.

Incorporatingclimateresiliencefeaturesintoroaddesignsisessentialtoreducingexpectedsocialandeconomiclossesandimprovingroadservicereliabilityinthelongrun.Theroadinfrastructurewithresiliencemeasuresisexpectedtoperformmoreresilientlyagainstclimatechangeevents,suchasheatwaves,droughts,floods,landslides,andheavyrain.Fortheoperationstage,thispapertakesintoaccountroadusers’viewpointsand,giventhecountry’spotentialasahydropowerproducer,discussesthepossibilityofpromotingtheuseofelectricvehicles(EVs).

Bylookingatroadinfrastructurethroughoutthelifecycle,thefollowingmeasuresareidentifiedforthecountry’sconsideration:

(i)integrateclimateadaptationmeasuresintoengineeringdesignsandbuildanenablingenvironmentfortheuseofEVsoverthecountry’sroadnetwork;

(ii)createarobustandoperationalroadmaintenancefundtosecuremaintenancebudgetsandcomprehensivemaintenanceschemesbyapplyingadvancedtechnologiesandmaterials;

(iii)explorewiderfundingsourcesfortheroadmaintenancefundbeyondtraditionalones,

suchasfuelleviesandroaduserchanges,givenpeople’sshifttoEVsanddecreasingfuel-relatedrevenues;

(iv)updatethestandardsandregulationsgoverningroaddesignsandtrafficmanagement

tointegrateclimateadaptationandmitigationmeasuresinaunifiedmannerforthenetwork’scontinuityandtomeetroadusers’newdemandsforoverlandtravel;

(v)fosteraresearchanddevelopmentplatform(includingthroughthepromotionofinternationalpartnershipsformobilizingtechnicalandfinancialresources)forpromotingalifecycleapproachinthecountry’stransportsector;and

(vi)considerindustrialshiftsandwidercollaborations(e.g.,public–privateandbusiness–

academia).

ProposedLifeCycleApproachintheRoadSubsectorix

ThispaperisoneproductundertheongoingtechnicalassistanceforCapacityBuildingSupporttotheMinistryofTransportforBetterPlanningandImplementation.Underthetechnicalassistance,theAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)launchedacomponentin2022tohelpidentifypossiblemeasuresforpromotingclimateresilienceandcarbonneutralityinthecountry’sroadsubsectoroperation.

Theworkingpaperfocusesonthecountry’snationalroadnetwork.Consideringnetworkcontinuity,italsoincludesdiscussionsofurbancontexts.

ProposedLifeCycleApproachintheRoadSubsector1

I.BACKGROUND

1.TheParisAgreement,adoptedattheUnitedNations(UN)ClimateChangeConference(COP21)inDecember2015,setsthegoalofkeeping“theincreaseintheglobalaveragetemperaturetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevels”andstriving“tolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels.”Toimplementthisobjective,countriesthatratifiedtheParisAgreementreporttheirnationallydeterminedcontributions(NDCs),whichoutlineeachcountry’sgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionstargetsby2030andspecificactionplanstomeetthem.1

2.TajikistanisalandlockedCentralAsiancountrywithmountainousterraincoveringmorethan90%ofitslandareaandglaciersaccountingfor6%.Inadditiontosuchchallengingtopographicconditions,variousclimatichazardsareaconcern,suchasheatwaves,drought,floodsandlandslides,andheavyrains.Heatwavesareanticipated,giventhatthecountryregularlyexperienceshightemperatures(exceeding35°C)duringsummerseason,andacontinuousriseinannualaveragetemperaturesisforeseeninthefuture,particularlyinthelowlands.Thecountryhasalsoexperiencedasteadyincreaseinitsannualaveragetemperature,whilethedifferencebetweentheaveragemaximumandminimumtemperaturesremainsatabout10°C.2Twotypesofdroughtscouldaffectthecountry:hydrologicalandmeteorologicalones.Glaciersandsnowmeltwaterareconsideredtocontributetorunoff,eventuallyprotectingagainsthydrologicaldrought.However,continuoustemperaturerisescouldincreasetheannualprobabilityofmetrologicaldrought,whichwouldsurpasssuchcontributionsofglacierandsnowmeltwaterandmakesomeareasinthecountrychronicallydrought-affectedareas.Despitesuchpreventioneffects,glaciersandsnowmeltwatercouldcauseflashfloods,occurringwhenmorainedamsholdingbackaccumulatedmeltwaterinaltitudeareasarebreached.Wangetal.(2021)pointoutthatrainfallandsnowmeltwaterareoftentriggersoflandslidesinthecountry.Furthermore,increasingintensityandfrequencyofrainfallareanticipatedintheCentralAsiaregion,whichcouldcontributetothefrequencyoflandslidesandmudflowsandexacerbationofsoilerosion.3Continuouschangesinclimaticpatterns,withseasonaldifferences,couldaffectthequalityoftransportinfrastructure,people’stravelandeconomicbehaviors,andtheenvironment.Preventivemeasuresagainstextremeclimaticeventsinthefutureareintegral,requiringeffortstopromoteclimateresilienceandcarbonneutralityinthetransportsector.

3.GreenhousegasemissionsfromthetransportsectorinTajikistan.Thetransportsectoraccountsforabout10%ofthetotalemissionsinthecountry(Figure1).Thetransportsector’sGHGemissionlevelisconsideredtoberelativelylowasthesector’sGHGemissionsaccountforabout8%ofthecountry’sGHGemissions.However,othersectorsrelyontransportinfrastructureforthemovementofgoodsandpeople.FutureincreasesinGHGemissions,eitherdirectlyorindirectly,arethusexpected

inthetransportsector.

1UNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange.

TheParisAgreement

.

2WorldBank.ClimateChangeKnowledgePortal.

Tajikistan:CurrentClimate—Climatology

(accessed21April2024).

3WorldBankGroupandADB.2021.

ClimateRiskCountryProfile:Tajikistan

.

2ADBSustainableDevelopmentWorkingPaperSeriesNo.95

Figure1:HistoricalGreenhouseGasEmissionsinTajikistan

(MtCO2e)

20

15

10

5

0

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

ShareofGHGEmissionsfromTransportSector oTotalGHGemission

GHGemissioninTransportSector

GHG=greenhousegas,MtCO2e=metrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent.

Source:ClimateWatch.

HistoricalGHGEmissions

:Tajikistan(accessed4November2023).

4.Policycontexts.TheGovernmentofTajikistanhasadoptedseveralclimatechange-relatedactionplansorpoliciessinceitsindependencein1991.In2003,thegovernmentapprovedtheNationalActionPlanforClimateChangeMitigation,followingthecountry’sparticipationintheUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChangein1998.4Theactionplanillustratesthecountry’scommitmentstoreducingGHGemissionsandacceleratingtheimplementationofmeasurestomitigateclimatechangeimpactsandenhanceadaptationtosuchimpacts.Thetransportsectorisacknowledgedasanintegralpartofthecountry’seconomywhilebeingconsideredacauseofairpollutionandoneofthemajorGHGemissionsourcesasaresultofinefficientfuelcombustion.Theactionplanincludedthepromotionofelectricvehicles(EVs).ThegovernmentadoptedtheNationalDisasterRiskReductionStrategy,2019–2030in2018.5Thestrategyaimstoreducetheimpactofdisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazardsthatinflictedlossesofmorethan$5millionannuallyduring1997–2018.Itrecognizestheurgentneedtoimplementmeasurestoadapttoandmitigatetheeffectsofextremeweatherevents(para.2),andreconfirmedthetransportsectorasakeysectorinthestrategy.6InDecember2022,thecountryadoptedtheStrategyfortheDevelopmentoftheGreenEconomy,2023–2037,whichpromotestheintroductionofgreentechnologiesintheinfrastructureandindustrysectorstomaterializethecountry’sfurthereconomicdevelopmentandenhanceitscompetitivenesssustainably.7

4GovernmentofTajikistan.2003.

NationalActionPlanoftheRepublicofTajikistanforClimateChangeMitigation

.DecreeNo.259.

5GovernmentofTajikistan.2018.

NationalDisasterRiskReductionStrategyoftheRepublicofTajikistanfor2019–2030

.

6GovernmentofTajikistan,CommitteeofEnvironmentProtection,AgencyforHydrometeorology.2022.

FourthNational

CommunicationoftheRepublicofTajikistanundertheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange

.

7GovernmentofTajikistan,MinistryofEconomicDevelopmentandTrade.2022.StrategyfortheDevelopmentoftheGreenEconomyinTajikistanfor2023–2037.

ProposedLifeCycleApproachintheRoadSubsector3

5.TheGovernmentofTajikistanadoptedtheintendedNDC,whichbecameitsNDCupon

ratificationoftheParisAgreementinMarch2017.8In2021,thecountryadoptedtheupdatedNDC,inwhichitcommittedtoreducingGHGemissionsby2030,assummarizedin

Table1

(GovernmentofTajikistan,2021).

Table1:Tajikistan’sGreenhouseGasEmissionsTargetsin

theUpdatedNationallyDetermined