版權說明:本文檔由用戶提供并上傳,收益歸屬內容提供方,若內容存在侵權,請進行舉報或認領
文檔簡介
ValueofDemandFlexibilityintheEuropeanPowerSectorFinalReport03-10-2023Keyfindings??ThisreportexploresdifferentscenariosfortheEuropeanpoweranddistrictheatingsystemeachrepresentingvaryingdegreesofdemandflexibility.ThescenarioscomplywiththeEU'sobjectiveofbecomingclimateneutralby2050.Whenwecomparethe"Reference"scenario,whichassumesfrozenpolicywithregardstoflexibilityandminimaladvancementindemandresponse(DR)technologies,withthe"Flex"scenario,whereregulatorychanges,technologicaladvancements,andheightenedconsumerawarenessenabledemandresponse,weobservethefollowingadvantages:——————Asocio-economicbenefitof€15.5billionannuallybytheyear2050.Asubstantialreductioninconsumercosts,amountingtoapproximately€26billionannuallyby2050.Adecreaseinaverageconsumerpowerprices(wholesale)from€61/MWhto€55/MWh.Theabatementof40milliontonsofCO2in2030.Areducedneedforapproximately300GWofbatterycapacityand90GWlessgaspeakcapacity.Additionally,anintegrationof100GWmoresolarcapacityintotheenergymix.Investmentsininterconnectorsbetweenbiddingzonesdecreasedby21%(61GW)?Themodellingconsidersonlybenefitsofdemandresponseinwhole-saleelectricitymarketsincludingtheneedforinvestmentsininterconnectorsbetweenbiddingzones.Anypositive(ornegative)effectsofdemandresponseondistributiongridcostandinternaltransmissiongridcostarenotconsideredinthemodelling.Possiblerevenuesfromsellingancillaryservicesarenotconsideredeither.??Thesefindingsunderscorethepotentialbenefitsassociatedwithembracingdemandresponseandfosteringaflexibleenergylandscape.Pleasenotethatthecostsrelatedtorealizingthepotentialforload-shiftamongcertainconsumers,includinghouseholds,services,industries,andelectricvehicle(EV)owners,havenotbeenfactoredintotheanalysis.Introduction4ProjectcontextDanfossisactivelyengagedinassessingtheroleofdemand-sideflexibilitywithintheforthcomingEuropeanpowersystemlandscape.Againstthisbackdrop,wehavepreparedalong-termanalysisspanningthemilestoneyearsof2025,2030,and2050.Theprimaryobjectiveofthisanalysisistoquantifytheholisticvaluethatvariousformsofdemandflexibilitycancontribute.Ourevaluationhingesonasetofkeymetricsthatencompasssocioeconomicimpact,monetaryadvantagesforconsumers,reductionsinCO2emissionsandfuelconsumption,andpowerprices.Togainathoroughunderstanding,thesecriticalaspectswillbeinvestigatedthroughthelensofthreedistinctscenarios,eachrepresentingvaryingdegreesofdemandflexibility.TheanalysiswillbeconductedbyutilizingtheBalmorelpowersystemmodeltoexamineEuropeanday-aheadmarkets.Thisapproachwillfocusonoptimizingtheintricateinterplaybetweensupplyanddemanddynamics,withtheprimaryaimofminimizingcostsfortheoverallsystemsolution.Note,thatthemodellingconsidersonlybenefitsofdemandresponseinwhole-saleelectricitymarketsincludingtheneedforinvestmentsininterconnectorsbetweenbiddingzones.Anypositive(ornegative)effectsofdemandresponseondistributiongridcostandinternaltransmissiongridcostarenotconsideredinthemodelling.Possiblerevenuesfromsellingancillaryservicesarenotconsideredeither.5Balmorelisafundamentalpartial-equilibriummodelofthepoweranddistrictheatingsystem.Themodelfindsleast-costsolutionsbasedonassumptionssuchasthedevelopmentoffuelprices,demanddevelopment,technologycostsandcharacteristics,renewableresourcesandotheressentialparameters.BalmorelenergysystemmodellingtoolThemodeliscapableofsimultaneousinvestmentanddispatchoptimisation,showingoptimalsolutionsforpowergenerationandinterconnectorcapacity,dispatch,transmissionflowandelectricityprices.Modeldevelopedtosupporttechnicalandpolicyanalysesofpowersystems.Optimizationofeconomicaldispatchandcapacityexpansionsolutionfortherepresentedenergysystem.Characteristics:open-source,customizable,scalable,transparentMainevaluationmeasures?
Powerpricesandmarketvalues?
Generation&capacitybalancesModeldimensions?
CO2andpollutantemissions?
Socio-economicsystemcostsTemporalscope?
Selectedoptimizationyears?
Timeaggregatedinvestmentoptimization?
HourlydispatchoptimizationGeographicalscope?
Nordics(biddingzones)?
Germany(4regions)?
Baltics?
CentralEurope,UKandItaly?
IberianpeninsulaNote:OvalshapesintheNorthandBalticseasrepresentexisting&futureoffshorewindlocationsinanaggregatedmatter.Illustratedlinesrepresenttheoptionsoftransmissioncapacities.NomenclatureAcronymCAPEXCHPTermAcronymInd.HTermCapitalcostsIndividualHeatingLoadDurationCurveOperationexpendituresPriceDurationCurvePowertoXCombinedHeatandPowerDistrictHeatingDemandSideResponseEuropeanUnionElectricVehiclesFullLoadHoursHydrogenLDCDHOPEXPDCPtXDSREUEVsPVPhotovoltaicsFLHTYNDPV2GTenYearDevelopmentPlantH2VehicletoGridVariableRenewableEnergySourcesHSDCHyperScaleDataCentersVRES82PowerSystemExpectationsElectricitydemandinEuropeTheenvisionedelectrificationofheating,industryandtransportsectorsisexpectedtoincreaseelectricitytwofoldtowards2030.TotalElectricityDemand7.0006.0005.0004.0003.0002.0001.0000Thefollowingsourcesareusedfordemandprojections:?
REPowerEUforhydrogenproductiontargetstowards2030.—
REPowerEUhasbeendevelopedinthewakeofRussia’s
invasionofUkraineandassumes10mill.tondomestichydrogenproduction(330TWh)intheEUalreadyby2030.—
TheEUCommissionMIX-scenariohavebeenusedforthelong-termhydrogendemand.?
TYNDP’s
GlobalAmbitionscenarioforthedevelopmentoftotaldemandforclassicdemand,electricvehiclesandindividualheating.202520302050Electricityconsumption:ClassicdemandElectricityconsumption-HSDCsElectricitytoindustrialelectrificationElectricitytoP2XElectricitytodistrictheatingElectricitytoindividualheatingElectricityconsumption:ElectricVehicles?
Electricityusefordistrictheatingissubjecttomodeloptimisation.10DemandbucketsinthemodelDemandbucketClassicDescriptionAssociatedcostofflexibilityClassicelectricitydemandmainlyforhouseholds,theindustryandservicesector.Nodirectcosts.ThemodelincludesaninertiawhichensuresthatdemandContainsdemandtypesnotexplicitlycoveredundertheothercategories.EU2021mix(approx.):flexibilityisonlyactivatedwhenthereisapricedifferenceof15€/MWh.????43%industry28%service26%households3%agricultureElectricvehiclesDemandincludesallelectricityforroadtransport.Initialprofileisbasedonchargingpatternsmatchingtransportdemand(Estimatedforindividualcountriesflexibilityisonlyactivatedwhenthereisapricedifferenceof15€/MWh.basedonempiricaldatafromNorway)Nodirectcosts.ThemodelincludesaninertiawhichensuresthatdemandV2Gactivitiesfacetheoccurringmarketcosts(marketclearingspotprices),essentiallyobtainingrevenuesfrompowerarbitrage.Nodirectcosts.Themodelincludesaninertiawhichensuresthatdemandflexibilityisonlyactivatedwhenthereisapricedifferenceofabout55€/MWhIndividualheatingIncludeselectricityconsumptionforspaceheatinginbuildings.Thedemandissuppliedbyheatpumpsandelectricboilers.Nodirectcosts.Themodelincludesaninertiawhichensuresthatdemandflexibilityisonlyactivatedwhenthereisapricedifferenceof10€/MWh.DistrictheatingHeatdemandfordistrictheatingisincluded.Heatpumpsandelectricboilersareamongtheoptionstosupplythedistrictheatingdemand.Otheroptionsarefuel-capacity.Usingalternativeoptionsforheatgenerationyieldsadditionalcost.baseddistrictheatinggenerationfromheatonlyboilersorCHP.InvestmentandoperationalcostforadditionalelectricboilersorheatpumpInvestmentcostandoperationalcostsofsteeltanksandpitstorages.DependingonthescenariothemodelmayinvestinsteeltanksandpitstoragesPower-to-XDemandforproductionofe-gasses,e-liquidsandhydrogenbasedonEUcommissionscenarios.Modelledaselectricityconsuminggenerationfacilities(electrolysers).Investmentandoperationalcostforelectrolysersandcavernstoragesincluded.Dependingonscenariomodeloptimisedhydrogenstoragescanbeinstalledtoenableflexibleuseofelectrolysers,whiledemandismodelledconstant.GenerationcapacityinEuropeBuildoutrequirementsandlevelsinthemodelarea??Thedevelopmentinnewcapacityisdrivenbydemanddevelopment,technologycostsandresourceassumptions.Moreover,importantpoliticaltargetsaretakenintoaccount,includingminimumbuildoutforrenewableenergy,coalphaseoutplansandnuclearplans.2.5002.0001.5001.000500Windandsolar:Asaminimumlevelforrenewableenergy,countriesareexpectedtofulfilthelevelsofwindandsolarpowersetoutinENTSO-ETYNDP-scenarioNationaltrendstowards2030.Keynationalareincludedaswell,Germanyforexample,isexpectedtopursuehighertargetsforwindandsolarpowerassetoutintheGovernment’s
EasterPackagefromApril2022,aimingfor215GWsolarpowerandaround120GWofonshorewindin2030.Additionally,80%oftheambitious30GWoffshorewindtargetby2030isassumedrealised.Beyond2030,investmentsarebasedonmodeloptimisation.ForonshorewindandsolarPV,countryspecificcapsareemployedtoreflectarealisticdeploymentthatconsidersplanningandgridconstraintsatthelocallevel.Theseconstraintsaregraduallyrelaxedovertime.??Nuclearcapacityisdeterminedexogenously.ThecapacitybasedonplansfromWorldNuclearAssociationfordecommissioningbutwithnewplantsbeingbuiltintheUK,FinlandandPoland.Thetotalcapacitydeclinesfromaround100GWin2021to~90GWin2050.020252030Minonshore203520402050OnshorecapOffshorecapSolarcapMaxonshoreMaxoffshoreMaxsolarMinoffshoreMinsolarThermalcapacity:Currentplansfordecommissioningofcoal-firedcapacityareconsidered.Otherthanthat,decommissioningofandinvestmentsinthermalpowercapacityisdeterminedbythemodel.Investmentinbiomasscapacity(woodchips,woodpellets,straw)isconstrainedat30GWby2030(correspondingtoafuelinputofapprox.1.900PJ)toreflectthatthecurrentpipelineofnewbiomasscapacityislimited.Towards2050,thebiomassconstraintisliftedto40GW.Note:oMinandmaxshowassumptionsonminimumandmaximumpossiblebuildoutpathways.Nodifferencebetweenthetwomeans,meansthataexactcapacityisinstalled.ooo“Cap”
showscapacityasaresultofmodeloptimisation.SpainandPortugalarenotincludedinthepresentgraph.12FuelpricesFuelandCO2prices6050403020100Fuelprices??Futures(April2023).Untilandincluding2026Longterm.Pricesexpectedtoconvergetolongtermequilibriumpricesin2030???IEAWorldEnergyOutlook2022AnnouncedPledgesscenarioNaturalgas:LNGimportprice(Japan).CoalLightoilNaturalgasWoodchipsWoodpellets?Currenthighgaspricesexpectedtonormaliseovertime,butoutlooksaredifficultincurrentsituation.Towards2030,reduceddependenceonnaturalgasandhighglobalbuildoutofrenewableslowersdemandforfossilfuelsandthuspricesETSprice250CO2-prices20015010050??Forwardprices(April2023).Untilandincluding2026Longterm.PricesexpectedtoconvergetoAnnouncedPledgesscenariofromWEO2022in2030andonwards.?HighCO-prices–
alsogoingforwardto2030.However,current2pricesarealsotosomeextentaffectedbyhighgasprices.013Studystructure14AnalysedscenariosEaEnergyAnalyses’
referenceprojectiontowards2050willbeutilisedasabasisforthepresentstudy,withkeyflexibilityaspectsvaryingacrossthreescenarios.I.A“Reference”
scenarioreflectingfrozenpolicyandlimiteddevelopmentofDRtechnologies.Thereferencedisplaysrelativelylowlevelsofflexibility,includinginflexibleelectricityconsumptionpatternsamongacertainportionofthePtXcapacity.II.ThePtXsectorisexpectedtoprovidethehighestlevelofflexibilityinthesysteminupcomingyears,duetoitsdemandmagnitudebutalsocharacteristics.Therefore,anintermediatescenario(“PtX
Flex”)
willbeanalysedtoshedlightonthevaluethatPtXrelatedflexibilitybringstothesystemontopofreferencecase.III.Finally,themostflexiblescenario(“Flex”),
willreflecttheadditionoffurtherdemand-sideflexibilityactionsineachdemandcategory,showcasingtheoverallemergedvaluefromthedeploymentofdifferentflexibilitymeasures.Anoverviewofthevaryingaspectsbetweenscenarioscanbeseeninthefollowingslide:15DefinitionofscenariosDemandbucketReferenceReference+PtXflexibility(“PtXFlex”)Flexibilityscenario(“Flex”)Classic2,5%fuel-shift(permanentreductionAsReferenceindemand)10%fuel-shift(permanentreductionindemand)20%load-shift(upto2hours).5%load-shift(upto2hours).25%realisedin2025,50%in2030,100%by2050.25%realisedin2025,50%in2030,100%by2050.Electricvehicles20%oftotalloadforelectricroadtransportwillparticipateinflexiblechargingandbeabletomoveplannedchargingbyupto4hours.AsReference65%oftotalloadforelectricroadtransportwillparticipateinflexiblechargingandbeabletomoveplannedchargingbyupto4hours.50%oftotalloadV2G“fit”.15%oftotalloadV2G“fit”.25%realisedin2025,50%in2030,100%by2050.25%realisedin2025,50%in2030,100%by2050.IndividualheatingFixedconsumptionpattern.AsReferenceAsReferenceFlexibleheatgenerationbyadjustmentstoinitialdemandprofile.Averagedemandcanbemoved3hours.25%realisedin2025,50%in2030,100%by2050.AsReferenceplus:DistrictheatingutilitiesFlexibilityconsistsoftheoptiontofulfiltheheatdemandbyelectricityorotherheatgeneration,dependingonthepowerprices.Themodelmayinvestinsteeltanksandpitstorages.Load-shiftamongdistrictheatingconsumers:2025:4hoursflex,25%realised2030:5hoursflex,50%realised2050:6hoursflex,75%realisedAsReference+PtXflexibilityThemodelmayinvestinsteeltanksonly.75%ofPtXdemandoperatesflexible100%flexiblePtXload.Power-to-X25%ofPtXdemandfollowsafixedModeloptimisedhydrogenstoragescanbeinstalledtoenableflexibleloadcurve(flatthroughouttheyear).useofelectrolysers,whiledemandismodelledconstant.Costofstoragereflectsthoseoflarge-scalecaverns,assumingahydrogenbackboneinfrastructureisavailabletoconnecthydrogenproducersdirectlytoconsumersandcentrallylocalisedlargescalehydrogencaverns.Factorsaffectingtherealisationofscenarios?
Severalfactorsaffecttheuptakeofdemandresponsetechnologiesincluding1.2.3.4.RegulatoryEnvironment:Governmentpoliciesandregulationscangreatlyimpactdemandresponseadoption.Supportivepolicies,incentives,andmandatescanencouragetheimplementationofdemandresponseprograms.TechnologyAvailabilityandMaturity:Theavailabilityandmaturityofdemandresponsetechnologiesplayacrucialrole.Ifadvancedandcost-effectivetechnologiesarereadilyaccessible,itbecomeseasierforconsumersandbusinessestoimplementdemandresponsestrategies.ConsumerAwarenessandEducation:Lackofawarenessorunderstandingofdemandresponsecanbeabarrier.Effectiveeducationandoutreachprogramscanhelpconsumersandbusinessesmakeinformeddecisions.ElectricitypricesandGridneeds:Theeconomicbenefitofbeingflexibledependsonthestateofthegridandthecompositionofpowersupplyetc.Strongerincentiveswillencouragemoredemandresponse.?
Thereferencescenarioisintendedtoreflectasituationwherefactors1-3donotimproveconsiderablycomparedtotoday(factor4isconsideredwithinthemodelling*).?
Theflexibilityscenariosshowdevelopments,wheretheregulatoryenvironment,technologydevelopmentandconsumerawarenessfacilitatedemandresponse.*Themodellingconsidersbenefitsofdemandresponseinwhole-saleelectricitymarketsincludingtheneedforinvestmentsininterconnectorsbetweenbiddingzones.Anypositive(ornegative)effectsofdemandresponseondistributiongridcostandinternaltransmissiongridcostarenotconsideredinthemodelling.Possiblerevenuesfromsellingancillaryservicesarenotconsideredeither.Demand-sideflexibilitymeasuresinEuropeo
Electricvehiclesdemandincludesallelectricityforroadtransport.Thisdemandisflexible,andanincreasingsharecanbemovedfor4hours.Thus,themodellingaccountsforsmartcharging.Vehicle-to-gridsolutionscanalsobeenabled.TotalElectricityDemandProgression3.000o
Electricityforindividualheatingincludeselectricityconsumptionforspaceheatinginbuildings,whichismodelledasheatdemand.Thedemandissuppliedbyheatpumps,directelectricheatingandelectricboilers.Apartoftheindividualheatdemandcanbeconsideredflexible,withtheoptionofload-shiftinginfuturehours.2.5002.0001.5001.000500o
Electricityfordistrictheatingisbasedonmodeloptimization.Heatpumpsandelectricboilersareamongtheoptionstosupplythedistrictheatingdemand.Otheroptionsarefuel-baseddistrictheatinggenerationfromheatonlyboilersorCHP.0o
ElectricityforP2Xisincludedbasedontheconsumptionofe-gasses,e-liquidsandhydrogen.AP2Xefficiencyof70%isassumedforhydrogenand60%fore-gassesande-liquids.Ifprofitable,storagescanbeinstalledtomoveportionsofthedemand,henceprovidingfurtherflexibilitytothesystem.202520302050Electricityconsumption:ClassicdemandElectricityconsumption-HSDCsElectricitytoindustrialelectrificationElectricitytoP2XElectricitytodistrictheatingElectricitytoindividualheatingo
Thelevelofflexibilityintheclassicdemandisrisingfrom2020towards2050againsttheaveragehourlydemand.Thedemandcanbemovedfor2hoursbypayinganactivationprice.Thisdemandincludesindustrythatalsohaveflexibilitytomoveproductiontolowpricehours.Electricityconsumption:ElectricVehiclesNote:ooHSDCs:HyperScaleDataCentersClassicdemandreflectspowerusefor:Industry,Service,Households,Agriculture.oIllustratedannualdemandlevelsreflecttheanalysed“Flex”
scenarioasdescribedinupcomingsections.18ReferenceFlexibilityonclassicdemand:LowVREweek(W48),2050Assumptionsondemandresponseforclassicelectricitydemand(households+industry)arebasedonanestimateoflong-termflexibilityagainsttheaveragedemandin2050.Demandresponseisimplementedasapotentialtoshiftofdemandintimeforupto2hours.Forcomparison,ENTSO-EreportedaverageDSR(Demandsideresponse)ofroughly9%ofaveragedemandin2040intheTYNDP2018GlobalClimateActionscenario.Flex50%offlexibilityisactivatedatacostof15€/MWh,
whiletheremaining50%offlexibilityisactivatedat30€/MWh,
meaningthatthedifferencebetweenachievableelectricitypriceshastobeatleast15€/MWh,
beforeloadshiftingtakesplace.Deploymentoflocallydistributedbatterysolutions(forexampleresidentialbatteriesincombinationwithrooftopPV)arenotconsideredinthemodellingandcouldprovideaportionofthisflexibilitypotential.Utilityscalebatteriesarenotincludedintheestimateshereastheyaresubjecttoexplicitoptimisation.Note:19oIllustrationsreflectdemandbehaviorinalowrenewableenergyweekwithhighelectricityprices.ChosenregionreflectsMunichinGermany.Season“S”
correspondtothereflectedweeknumber.FlexibilityonelectricvehiclesChargingpatternsIllustrationofchargingpatternsandlimits(2030)Chargingpatternsforelectricvehiclesareassumedtobeflexiblerelativetoaninitialchargingprofile.Theinitialchargingprofileisbasedonestimatesofimmediatechargingprofilesaccordingtodrivingpatterns(Fullbluelineforweekdaysandfullgreylineforweekends).1ThesechargingprofileswouldensureEV’s
arefullychargedasfastaspossibleafterdriving.Thus,chargingprofilefollowpeakcommutinghourswithalittletimelag.Chargingpatternsarebasedonresearchonpersonalvehicles,butareusedheretorepresentallelectricityuseforroadtransport.12%10%8%6%4%Onlyashareofallvehiclesareassumedtobeflexible,whichleadstocertainminimum(reddashedline)andmaximum(bluedashedline)loadsforchargingelectricvehiclesatalltimes.Theresultingpotentialloadpatternsexcludeoptionforvehicle-to-gridtechnologies,whichcouldsignificantlyincreaseflexibilityoptions,albeitatahighercost,totakeintoaccounttechnologyneedsandlifetimereductionsonbatteriesduetoadditionalcycling.2%0%AllvehiclesMaximumallvehiclesAllvehicles(Weekend)Minimumallvehicles(Non-flexiblevehicles)1Source:Liu,Z.,Nielsen,A.H.,&Wu,Q.(2016).OptimalOperationofEVsandHPsintheNordicPowerSystem.TechnicalUniversityofDenmark,DepartmentofElectricalEngineering.20LimitsonflexibilityofelectricvehiclesTimeshiftingFlexibilityisimplementedasapotentialtoshifttheaveragechargingload(oftheflexiblevehicles)ofupto4hoursintime.EnergydemandIllustrationofchargingpatternsandlimits(2030)hastobeservedovera24hourperiod,andallenergydemandhastobeservedby7aminthemorning,whereallEVsarechargedtothedesiredlevel12%10%8%6%4%2%0%RestrictiononflexibilityFlexibilityofchargingforelectricvehiclesissubjecttoanumberofrestrictions,whichdevelopovertimeoOnlyafractionofvehiclesparticipateinflexiblecharging,meaningtheremainingvehiclewillfollowtheinitialchargingpatternatalltime.Themaximumchargingislimitedtoamultipleoftheestimatedpeakdemandoftheinitialprofileo
Maximumchargingforflexiblevehiclescannotexceed125%ofthepeakoftheirinitialchargingprofile.o
Flexibilityisactivatedatacostof15€/MWh
independentoftimedifference.Thismeans,thedifferencebetweenachievableelectricitypriceshastobeatleast15€/MWh,
beforeloadshiftingtakesplace.Foranaveragepersonalvehiclewithannualdrivingrangesof15.000–
20.000kmandelectricitydemandofaround3MWh/year,thiscorrespondsto45€/year.AllvehiclesFlexiblevehiclesMaximumflexiblevehicles21ReferenceFlexibilityonelectricvehiclesTheresultingmaximumcapacitytoincreasechargingorinterruptcharging(providingupregulationtothesystem)isshownontheright.Theseflexibilitiesarewellbelowtechnicalaccumulatedbatteryloadingandvolumeinthesystem,whichareupto18timeshigher.Flexibilityinchargingpatternsisusedindispatchoptimisationasillustrated,showingamoveawayfrompeakloadininitialchargingprofileattheexpenseofhigherpeaks.FlexNote:22oIllustrationsreflectdemandbehaviorinalowrenewableenergyweekwithhighelectricityprices.ChosenregionreflectsMunichinGermany.Season“S”
correspondtothereflectedweeknumber.ReferenceLimitsonflexibilityfromindividualheatingElectricityusedforheatingcanbeflexiblebyexploitingheatcapacityinbuildingsandhotwatertanks.Theinitialdemandprofilefollowstheheatdemand,whichisdependentonhotwaterusageandoutsidetemperature.Anincreasingshareofbuildingsareparticipatinginprovidingflexibilitytothesystembyallowingtheaverageseasonaldemandtobeshiftedbyupto2hours.Loadforbuildingsnotparticipatinginflexibleheatingwillhavetobeservedatalltimes.Maximumloadforindividualheatingcannotexceedmaximumannualpeakdemand,whichiswellbelowthetotalcumulativeinstalledtechnicalcapacityofheatpumps.FlexHeatdemandhastobesuppliedwithin24hoursandthuscannotbeshiftedacrossdays.Flexibilityisactivatedatacostof10€/MWh,
meaningthedifferencebetweenachievableelectricitypriceshastobeatleast10€/MWh,
beforeloadshiftingtakesplace.Note:23oIllustrationsreflectdemandbehaviorinalowrenewableenergyweekwithhighelectricityprices.ChosenregionreflectsMunichinGermany.Season“S”
correspondtothereflectedweeknumber.ModelResults25PowerGenerationCapacitiesPowergenerationcapacityOther3.500BatteriesSolar3.0002.5002.0001.5001.000500Twomainpatternscanbeidentifiedbetweenthedevelopedscenariosandthereferencecasewhenmovingto2050:OnshorewindOffshorewindHydroI.WhiletransitioningtoatotallyflexiblePtXoperationbehaviour(“PtX
Flex”),
batteryinvestments,whichaidthemodeltoshiftpowerfromcheapertimeslicestomoreexpensiveones,arereplacedbyhighersolarPVcapacitiesandH2storages.Theadditionalflexibilityinthehydrogensectorhelpsaveinvestmentsinbatteriesinthepowersector.UsingPVwithlowLCOE,hydrogenisstoredandutilisedacrosstimesegments.PumpedhydroBiogasBiomassWaste0CoalNuclear202520302050II.Whenaddingfurtherdemandsideflexibilitymeasurestothesystem,similarpatternsasin“PtX
Flex”
areobserved,approximatelyexaggeratedby50%,inparalleltoanadditionaldecreaseof93GWofgasand17GWofoffshorewindgenerators.Withtheopportunityofmoreflexibledemand,opportunitiesofreducingthecontributionofmoreexpensivemarginalgenerators(gaspeakers)orfurthermarginalinvestments(offshorewind)canbeharvested.Similar,butofsmallermagnitudeeffects,canbealsoobservedamongothercategoriesinearlieryears.DifferencetoReferenceOther200100BatteriesSolar0OnshorewindOffshorewindHydro-100-200-300-400-500PumpedhydroBiogasPtXFlexFlexibilityPtXFlexFlexibilityPtXFlexFlexibility202520302050BiomassWaste26CoalPowergenerationPowergenerationBatteriesSolar7.0006.0005.0004.0003.0002.0001.0000OnshorewindOffshorewindOtherObservinghighertotalelectricstoragecontributionstothepowermixevenduringloweroverallcapacitiessignalisethatthesystemstillfindsvalueinshiftingpoweracrosstimestepsbutwithlowerpeaksthatinthereference.HydroBiogasBiom
溫馨提示
- 1. 本站所有資源如無特殊說明,都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
- 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等,如果需要附件,請聯系上傳者。文件的所有權益歸上傳用戶所有。
- 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙,網頁內容里面會有圖紙預覽,若沒有圖紙預覽就沒有圖紙。
- 4. 未經權益所有人同意不得將文件中的內容挪作商業(yè)或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文庫網僅提供信息存儲空間,僅對用戶上傳內容的表現方式做保護處理,對用戶上傳分享的文檔內容本身不做任何修改或編輯,并不能對任何下載內容負責。
- 6. 下載文件中如有侵權或不適當內容,請與我們聯系,我們立即糾正。
- 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準確性、安全性和完整性, 同時也不承擔用戶因使用這些下載資源對自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。
最新文檔
- 2024國際貨代合同范文
- 行政事業(yè)單位國有資產管理問題及對策探討
- 鄉(xiāng)村振興戰(zhàn)略下新時代農村經濟發(fā)展舉措研究
- 年度醫(yī)療垃圾戰(zhàn)略市場規(guī)劃報告
- 第2課《憲法是根本法》 (課件)-部編版道德與法治六年級上冊
- 8.1總復習(拔尖作業(yè))2024-2025學年五年級上冊數學人教版(含解析)
- 農林牧漁類專業(yè)綜合訓練卷 安徽省 第10卷 (解析版)
- 三年級下冊8課課件
- 酸洗板(卷)行業(yè)相關投資計劃提議
- 人教版數學一年級下冊期末考試試卷及答案
- 2023年度煤礦職業(yè)病防治計劃與實施方案
- 動力管道設計手冊-第2版
- 人教PEP英語五年級下冊第五單元大單元教學設計
- 逃出大英博物館課件(共27張)
- 大象版三年級科學上冊 (動物的繁殖)教育教學課件
- 車展培訓課件
- 家庭農場合伙入股協(xié)議書
- 住建部《房屋市政工程生產安全重大事故隱患判定標準(2022版)》測試題
- 金屬材料凝固原理與技術PPT完整版全套教學課件
- 國家機構有哪些課件
- 幼兒園園長一日三巡記錄表實用文檔
評論
0/150
提交評論