未來(lái)能源情景2024-169正式版-WN8

July2024

FutureEnergyScenarios:ESOPathwaystoNetZero

Pagenavigationexplained

Back

apage

Forward

apage

Tohelpyou?ndtheinformationyouneed

quicklyandeasilywehavepublishedthe

reportasaninteractivedocument.

Returntocontents

Fromhereyoucannavigatetoanypartofthepublication

DownloadthePDFinAcrobatReader

toviewallinteractivity.

TextLinks

Click/taphighlightedorangetextto

navigatetoanexternallink.Ortojumpto

anothersectionofthedocument.

Downloadapdf

Todownloadafullcopyofthisreportgoto

/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios

Foreword04

Introduction05

ExecutiveSummary18

ReducingGreatBritain’sEmissions32

TheEnergyConsumer51

TheEnergySystem86

Glossary163

Continuingtheconversation167

Legalnotice168

ClaireDykta

DirectorofStrategy&Policy

TheevolvingdynamicsoftheenergysystemcallforLaterthisyear,wewilltransformtobecometheDecarbonisationoftheenergysystemisthechallengeof

decisiveactionwithinthenexttwoyearstodeliverNationalEnergySystemOperator(NESO).Wewillputourgeneration.Inrecognitionoftheexpansiveindustry

thefundamentalchangesrequiredtoachieveafair,ourcustomers,homeowners,businessesandlocaltransformationrequiredtoGreatBritain’senergynetwork

affordable,sustainableandsecurecleanenergycommunitiesattheheartofourwork;buildingonplanning,thisyear’sFutureEnergyScenarios(FES)

systemby2050.ThismeanswemustprioritisestepsthestrongfoundationsoftheESOwewilldeliveraframeworkhasevolvedfrom‘scenarios’to‘pathways’to

thatwillenablethedeliveryofcleaner,cheaperenergyfuturewhereeverybodyhasaccesstoclean,reliable,explorenarrowerrangesandstrategic,crediblechoicesto

generationwhilstensuringaresilientsystemthataffordableenergy.propelusontheroutetodecarbonisation.Thistransition

deliverssecurityofsupplyforconsumers.

AstheElectricitySystemOperator(ESO),wehave

AsNESO,wewilltakeaholisticapproachtoplanning

andfacilitatingwholeenergysystemdecarbonisation.

hasalsobeenreflectedinournewpublicationname-

FutureEnergyScenarios:ESOPathwaystoNetZero.

setatargettobeabletooperateanetzerocarbonWewillbeinvolvedinthestrategicplanningofgasandFEScreatesthefoundationuponwhichourfuture

electricitysystemforshortdurationsbynextyear,whichelectricitynetworks,integratingthemforthefirsttimenetworkinvestmentplanswillbebuilt.Welookforward

setsusuptobeabletooperateacleanpowersystemtodevelopacomprehensivewholesystemplanfortoworkingwithindustry,theGovernment,Ofgemand

throughouttheyearinthe2030s.Ongoingglobalconflictfuturenetworkdevelopment.Wewilldevelopawholeourstakeholdersandcustomersaswetransitionto

continuestocreateinternationaluncertaintyinenergyenergysystemviewoffuturemarketdirectionsowecanNESOandbuilduponouranalysisandinsightstodeliver

markets,withthelong-termconsequencesyettoberecommendactionstooptimisemarketsacrossvectorsonourcriticalroleforsocietyandtheeconomy.

determined,andthecost-of-livingandenergycrisisandreducecostsforconsumers.Andwewillalso

continuestoimpacthouseholdsandbusinessesprovideindependentadvicetoGovernmentandOfgem

acrossGreatBritain.onenergypolicydevelopments.

Introduction

Overview06

TheevolutionofFutureEnergyScenariosframework07

FutureEnergyScenarios2024framework08

Thepathwaysandourmodelling09

Stakeholderengagement10

WhousesFutureEnergyScenarios11

EstablishmentoftheNationalEnergySystemOperator12

Assessingthelandscape15

NavigatingFutureEnergyScenarios202417

O2H2

Overview

Decisiveactionisneededwithinthenexttwoyearstodeliverthe

FESwasoriginallyestablishedtoprovidedataforinputintonetworkplanningprocesses,

fundamentalchangerequiredforafair,affordable,sustainableandsecure

netzeroenergysystemby2050.”

withourFiveYearForecastdesignedforuseinsecurityofsupply(SoS)planningandcapacity

marketauctions.Ourframeworkmustcontinuetounderpinthesecriticalplanningactivitiesand

recognisethewiderapplicationsourpublicationsupports,includingvariousregulatedenergy

Itistimetogofurtherandfaster.Tohelpenablethis,ouranalysisisevolvingtoalignwithsystemactivitiesalongsidepolicyrecommendationsandprivatesectorinvestment.

thestrategicnetworkinvestmentneededacrossGreatBritain.Whilewecontinuetoproduce

supplyanddemandprojections,wehavetransitionedfromscenariostopathways.

Ournetzeropathwaysidentifythreecredible,strategicroutestoreachnetzero.These

pathwaysoutlineanarrowerrangeofoutcomesthanourpreviousscenarios,tohelpdrive

forwardGreatBritain’sstrategicinvestmentneedsandtosupporttherapidandfundamental

changethatisrequired.

TheevolutionofFutureEnergyScenariosframework

FEShasevolvedovertheyears.Toaccess

theFESarchivesvisittheFEShomepage.

FES2013retirestheAccelerated

Growthscenario,anddevelops

GoneGreenandSlowProgression.

Theaxiomsthatunderpinthetwo

scenariosarepublishedaspartof

thepublicationframework.

FES2015maintainsafour-

scenarioapproachwithGone

Green,ConsumerPower,Slow

ProgressionandNoProgression.

Thescenariosareplottedona

2Daxisofprosperityandgreen

ambition,andtheaxiomsare

replacedwith?vehigh-level

primaryassumptions-economic,

political,social,technologicaland

environmental.

TheFES2018frameworkshifts

whilemaintainingfourscenarios:

CommunityRenewables,Two

Degrees,ConsumerEvolution

andSteadyProgression.

Thesescenariosarenowbased

onthespeedofdecarbonisation

andlevelofdecentralisation.

TheFES2022framework

staysthesame,butSteady

Progressionisrenamedto

FallingShort.

FutureEnergyScenariosis

publishedforthe?rsttime,

movingawayfromNational

Grid’ssingleforecastofgas

andelectricitydemand.

FES2011featuresthree

scenarios-GoneGreen,

AcceleratedGrowth&Slow

Progression.

FES2014expandsitsframework

tofourscenarios-GoneGreen,

LowCarbonLife,SlowProgression

andNoProgression.

Thesescenariosre?ectthe

energytrilemma,andareplotted

ona2Daxisofaffordabilityand

sustainability.

TheFESframeworkdevelops

oncemore,withthescenarios

nownamedTwoDegrees,

ConsumerPower,Slow

ProgressionandSteadyState.

Thescenariosremainona2D

axisofprosperityandgreen

ambition.

Asetoffournewscenarios

arepublishedinFES2020,

namedLeadingtheWay,

ConsumerTransformation,

SystemTransformationand

SteadyProgression.

Thesescenariosarebasedon

thelevelofsocietalchangeand

speedofdecarbonisation.

Ourframeworkshiftsfrom

scenariostopathways,

featuringthreenewnetzero

pathways:HolisticTransition,

ElectricEngagementand

HydrogenEvolution.

Ourframeworkalsofeatures

aCounterfactual,whichdoes

notmeetnetzero.

HT

HE

EE

HIGHLOW

Demand?exibility

CF

NATURALGAS

FutureEnergyScenarios2024framework

OurenhancedframeworkandnetzeropathwaysPathwaysframework2024

PreviousFESframeworksassessedthefutureofenergysupplyanddemand

throughscenarios,exploringawiderangeofcredibleoutcomesforhow

GreatBritaincouldmeetnetzero.Ournewframeworkmarksamovefrom

reactivescenariostostrategicnetworkplanningandseekstoidentifycredible,

strategicroutestonetzero.

HT

Withthisinmindandthroughconsultation,analysisandstakeholderengagement,

ournewframework:

?Replacesthefourscenarioswiththreenetzero‘pathways’

?Includesa‘Counterfactual’whichdoesnotmeetthe2050netzerotargetHE

EE

?RetainsourFiveYearForecast(5YF)inourdataworkbook.

Therangepresentedinourpathwaysnolongerrepresentsthewidestcrediblepossible

outcomes,butanarrowersetofroutestonetzero.Itisimportanttonotethatthereis

stillconsiderableuncertaintyandthereremainssomevariationacrossthepathwaysinHIGHLOW

somekeyareas,suchasthelevelofconsumerengagementandinteractionsbetween

differentfuels,asshownonournewframeworkdiagramtotheright.Furtherareas,

Demand?exibility

CF

suchastheenergysupplymix,areshowninour“Comparingourpathways”summary,

whichcanbefoundintheExecutiveSummarychapter(page20).

NATURALGAS

Ourpathwaysareasubsetoftheenvelopeofpossibleoutcomes.Theyareambitious

Hitsnetzeroby2050Missesnetzeroby2050

andwillrequiredecisiveactionifwearetomoveawayfromtheCounterfactualand

achievenetzerotargets.

HolisticTransitionElectricEngagementHydrogenEvolution

Counterfactual

Thepathwaysandourmodelling

Howdoournewpathwaysdifferfromthepreviousscenarios?

ScenariosPathways

Ourmodelling

Rangeofcredibleoutcomesforhow

GreatBritaincouldmeetnetzero.

Notallscenariosmeetnetzero.

Routesshowingstrategicdirectiontonet

zero.Allpathwaysmustmeetnetzero.

Ourmodellingstartswithaviewofhowdemandwillchangeintothefuture.Thisis

conductedthroughsub-sectormodelswhichinformthelevelsandprofilesofelectricity,

naturalgas,hydrogenandothervectors.

Widerangeofpossibleoutcomes.Provideanarrower,strategicrange.

OurFESenergydemandanalysisdirectlymodelsGreatBritainelectricity,gas,hydrogen

andbioenergydemandforroadtransport,heat,industry,commercialandresidential

enduses.Createscenariosthatarecostagnostic.Bringinadditionaleconomicmodelling.

Forsectorsthatfalloutsideourmodelling,weusetheClimateChangeCommittee

PotentialefficiencysavingsthroughWholesystemoptimisationfundamentalto

(CCC)“BalancedPathway”fromitsSixthCarbonBudgetanalysis,adjustedtoreflect

interactionsbetweenelectricityandfindingmostefficientfutureenergysystem

thelatestrecordedsectoremissionsfrom2022.

hydrogennetworksarehighlightedbutacrossallenergyvectors(indevelopment

notassessed.forfutureiterations).

Thisviewofdemandprovidesthetargetthatsupplysidemodelsmustmeetinoptimising

theproductionofenergy,dispatchofassetsandutilisationofflexiblesolutions.BuilttoemissionsandSoStargets.Considerwholeenergytrilemma.

Formoredetailonourmodellingprocess,seeour“FESModellingMethods20241”

Seekouttheedgesofcredibilityto

ensurescenariorangeiswideenough

toencompassuncertainfuture.

Exploreanarrowerrangeofoutcomes

todrivemorestrategic,credibleroutes

tonetzero.

documentontheFESpagesoftheNationalGridESOwebsite.Our“FES2023Pathway

Assumptions1”and“FES2024DataWorkbook1”arealsopublishedonthesame

website,whichprovidesasummaryofourmodellinginputsandassumptions.

Assumeunconstrainednetwork.Assesstheimpactofnetworkconstraints.

1/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios-fes/fes-documents

Stakeholderengagement

EngagingwithourstakeholdersforFES2024

beganinthesummerafterthepublication

ofFES2023.

YoucanfindourfullsuiteofFES2024documentationontheNationalGridElectricitySystemOperatorwebsite:

Stakeholderengagementunderpinsourmodellingandanalysis

foreveryFEScycle,andforFES2024weengagedwith2,627

stakeholdersthroughvariousmethods,representingatotalof

561organisations.Throughouttheyear,theseengagement

activitieshaveincludedtheFES2023physicallaunch,bilateral

meetings,ourCallforEvidencesurvey,ourLondon-based

TableTopicTalksevent,andotherongoingengagement

throughourFESemail.

FES2024Data

Workbook

FutureEnergyScenarios:

PathwaysataGlance

FutureEnergyScenarios:

ESOPathwaystoNetZero

Toensurewemaximisethebreadthofstakeholderviews,

wecontinuallyengagewithallninestakeholdercategories

identifiedforFES,withorganisationsacrosssectorsincluding

motormanufacturing,homebuildingassociations,universities,

energysuppliers,tradebodiesandmore.

EnergyBackgroundFES2024Pathway

FESModelling

DocumentAssumptions

Methods2024

WhousesFutureEnergyScenarios

Key

Electricity-centric

DistributionSystem

OperabilityFramework

SystemOperability

Framework

Gas-centric

GasMarketPlan

GasFuture

OperabilityPlanning

StrategicSpatial

EnergyPlan

CentralisedStrategic

NetworkPlanprocess

Pricecontrols

Academics&universities

Consumer

groups

ElectricityTen

YearStatement

NetworkOptions

Assessment

Holistic

NetworkDesign

Political

UK

networks

Energy

industry

FUTUREENERGY

SCENARIOS:ESO

PATHWAYSTO

NETZERO

European,national

&localplanning

GasTenYear

Statement

Network

Capability

Non-governmental

organisations

MARKETS

Innovators

ReviewofElectricity

MarketArrangements(REMA)

ESOAncillary

MarketsStrategy

Communities

andtheir

representatives

Regulators

SECURITYOFSUPPLY

Electricity

CapacityMarket

Summer

Outlook

WinterOutlook

FESisusedforanumberofregulatedactivitiesandreferencedbyawiderangeofenergy

Financialinvestment

supportfornet

zerotechnologies

Academicresearch

andinnovation

industryparticipantsandstakeholders.Ourworkisunderpinnedbycontinualstakeholder

engagementwhichisincorporatedalongsideourownanalysisandresearch.

Informnational

andregionalpolicy

EstablishmentoftheNationalEnergySystemOperator

AspartoftheplantodecarboniseGreatBritain,thecurrentElectricitySystemOperator

(ESO)willtransitiontotheNationalEnergySystemOperator(NESO)in2024.

TheenhancementoftheFES2024frameworkformspartofthiswiderindustryoverhaul,

withourmodellingandanalysisusedasakeyinputinvariousstrategicnetworkplanning

Day1Fullambition

processes,outlinedoverthefollowingthreepages.

TheNationalEnergySystemOperator’sroles

STRATEGIC

PLANNING

Plangasand

electricitynetworks

Providewholesystemview

oftheenergysector

NESOwillhaveaprimarydutytoactinthemanneritconsidersbesttopromotenetzero,

energysecurityandefficiencyandeconomy.Therolesandresponsibilitiesofthenew

organisationwillinclude:

MARKET

DEVELOPMENT

SupportDepartmentforEnergy

SecurityandNetZero(DESNZ)with

marketdevelopmentacrossgas

andelectricity

Adviseonwholeenergy

marketstrategy

?Wholeenergynetworkplanning–StrategicSpatialEnergyPlan(SSEP)andRegionalEnergy

StrategicPlanner(RESP)

RESILIENCEIdentifygaps,risks,interactionsand

opportunitieswithinawholesystem

Coordinateemergency

response

?Wholeenergysystemcoordinationroleforimprovingsecurityandresilienceofgas

andelectricitysystems

SECURITY

OFSUPPLY

Enableelectricitysecurityofsupply

andadviseongassecurityofsupply

Enablesecurityofsupplyacross

GreatBritain’swholeenergysystem

?Onshoreelectricitynetworkcompetition

NETZERO

ENERGYINSIGHTS

Deliverenergyinsightsand

advicetoGovernment

Advisorygrowsinto

newvectors

?Wholeenergymarketdevelopment

?ProvisionofindependentadvicetoOfgemandUKGovernment.

Crucialtoitsresponsibilities,NESOwillconsidertheeffectofitsactivitiesoncustomersand

localcommunities,competitionintheenergysector,thewholeenergysystemandonthe

facilitationofinnovation.

EstablishmentoftheNationalEnergySystemOperator

StrategicNetworkPlanning

AsNESO,wewillcoordinatesystemdesignandplanningefforts

acrossthewholeenergyindustrysothatplanningandinvestment

FES

?ESOsectorsupplyanddemand

projectionsto2050.

decisionscanbeoptimisedtodeliverBritain’snetzeroobjectives

atthelowestsustainablecosttoconsumers.Thismeansbringing

togetherthestrategicplanningofthegasandelectricitynetworksand

recommendingwholeenergysolutionstoresolvenetworkconstraints

acrossgas,electricityandhydrogen.Asthestrategicenergyplanner,

Electricity,gas

andhydrogen

?ESOregionalsupplyanddemand

projectionsto2050.

?Short-tomedium-termforecast

alongsidethis(5–7year“bestview”).

?Emissionsprojectionsoutto2050.

?Includesallfuelsandsectors.

Supplyanddemandprojections

Regionalgranularity

Capacityanddispatch

optimisation

Electricityandhydrogen

NESOwillhaveresponsibilityfortheCentralisedStrategicNetworkPlan

(CSNP),SSEPandRESPprocesses.

StrategicSpatialEnergyPlan

TheSSEPisintendedtobridgethegapbetweengovernmentpolicyand

networkdevelopmentplansacrossthewholeenergysystem(bothland

andsea)acrossGreatBritainbyprovidinggreaterclarityforindustryon

theshapeofthefutureenergysystem.

Whencommissioned,thefirstiterationoftheSSEPwillcoverpower

generation,includingoffshoregenerationinBritishwatersandhydrogen

assetstodeterminetheoptimallocationofenergyinfrastructureneeded.

CSNP

?Planningforelectricity,

gasandhydrogennetworks.

?Medium-termviewforvoltageand

stabilityneeds,accompaniedby

alonger-termoutlookofnational

trendsandsysteminsights.

?Networkoptionsdevelopment

andassessmentofdetailed

networkdesign,including

monitoringofdelivery.

?Environmentalassessments.

?Modellingelectricityandhydrogen

generationandstoragetoprovide

aspatialplanforGreatBritain.

?StrategicEnvironment

AssessmentandHabitats

RegulationAssessment

alongsidesocietal

considerations.

SSEP*

TheSSEPwillactasablueprintfromwhichmoregranularplans,

suchastheCSNP,willflow.

Environmentalimpact

ofbuildconsiderations

*Thisinformationisbasedoncurrent

assumptionsandsubjecttogovernment’s

StrategicSpatialEnergyPlancommissionto

theNationalGridEnergySystemOperator.

EstablishmentoftheNationalEnergySystemOperator

CentralisedStrategicNetworkPlan

High-levelinteractionsacrossFESandstrategicplanning

WeareaccountablefordeliveringtheCSNPandprovidingan

independent,coordinatedandlonger-termapproachtowidernetwork

planninginGreatBritaintohelpmeettheUKGovernment’snetzero

FES

ambitions.TheCSNPwillconsistofacollectionofplansfocussingon

electricitytransmissionnetworkplanning,aswellasdevelopmentsin

naturalgastransmissionandhydrogen.

Supplyanddemandprojectionsof

centralpathwaysandriskenvelopes.

RegionalEnergyStrategicPlanner

Theregionalenergystrategicplanningroleisbeingestablishedto

SSEP

supporttherapiddecentralisationanddecarbonisationofgeneration

anddemandatalocallevel.RESPwillcoordinateregionalplanningina

Spatialsupplyanddemand,

cooptimisedwithhigh-levelnetwork

cross-vectorway,consideringlocalprioritiesandaligningwithnational

needs.Optimisationofin-scopeSSEP

energyplanningandensuringthatinvestmentismadeinacost-effective

manner.OfgemisleadingthedetaileddesignofRESPandisdeveloping

itsfunction,governanceandboundaries.Itwillpublishtheoutcomesas

DESNZdatainputs

andassumptions

technologiesagainstcost,environment

andcommunityimpact,economicgrowth

andotheragreedobjectives.

partofapolicyframeworkconsultationin2024.

FutureEnergyScenarios:PathwaystoNetZero2024willfeedinto

Long-term

feedbackloop

allaspectsofstrategicnetworkplanningwhilstcontinuingtoplayan

importantroleinshort-termmarketmechanisms,innovation,business

CSNPRESP

planningandmore.Long-termpathwayprojectionswillbeusedwithin

theCSNP.

Wholesystemnetworkplanconsidering

high-leveltransmissioninvestments

againstarangeofdesignobjectives2.

Deliveraccountabilityforcoordinated

wholesystemplanningataregionallevel.

Encompassingourcurrentelectricity

networkplanningoutputs(ElectricityTenYear

StatementandNetworkOptionsAssessment).

2Encompassingourcurrentelectricitynetworkplanningoutputs(ETYSandNOA).

Assessingthelandscape

Reachingnetzerogreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsby2050iscriticaltolimitingtheFigureI.01:Electricitysupplyin2023negativeimpactsofclimatechange.

Progressinthepowersector

2023wasaremarkableyearforrenewableenergygenerationinGreatBritain.Therewasan

unprecedenteddropinfossilfueluse,withcoalaccountingforjust1%ofenergygenerated

andgasusagethelowestsince2015.Acrosstheyear,zero-carbonelectricitysources

alsoplayedavitalroleinthegenerationmixandmorethan50%ofelectricitycamefrom

thesesourcesinJanuary,JulyandOctober.Westillrelyheavilyonenergyfromfossilfuels

forsecurityofsupplyandgasmadeupthelargestshareoftheenergymix(32%)in2023.

However,highusageofrenewablesisenablingthecarbonintensityofelectricitygeneration

tocontinuetofall.

Solar

5%

Biomass

5%

Imports

11%

Hydro

2%

Coal

1%

Storage

1%

Gas

32%

Gas32%

Wind29%

Nuclear14%

Imports11%

Biomass5%

Solar5%

Nuclear

14%

Hydro2%

Coal1%

Storage1%

On5April2024ataroundmidday,weachievedanewlowcarbon

intensityrecordof21gCO2/kWh,beatingthepreviousrecordset

on18September2023of27gCO2/kWh.Downloadourcarbon

intensityapptoseereal-timegenerationstatsandourrecords.

Wind

29%

Assessingthelandscape

Costofliving

TheimpactofthecostoflivingcontinuestobefeltacrosstheUKand,whileenergy

priceshavefallen,theycontinuetobewellabovepreenergycrisislevels.Accordingto

anOfficeforNationalStatistics(ONS)survey(January2024),41%ofadultsreported

thatitwas‘veryorsomewhatdifficult’toaffordenergybillsand44%ofadultsare

nowusinglessfuelintheirhomesduetotheincreasedcostofliving3.TheConsumer

PricesIndex,includingowneroccupiers’housingcosts(CPIH),roseby3.8%inthe

12monthstoMarch20244.

UKcleanenergyinvestment

UKclimatepolicy–changessinceFES2023

ClimatepolicyintheUKcontinuestoevolve

andshift.In2023,theGovernmentannounced

afive-yeardelayonthebanonthesaleofnew

petrolanddieselcarsfrom2030to2035and

reviseditstargettobangasboilersentirelyin

2035toaphasingoutof80%,citingtheimpact

ofimposingcostsonconsumers.

TheGovernmentcommittedtothelaunchofthe

willimpactthedesignofelectricitymarkets

andinvestmentpolicies,includingContractsfor

forthebiggestexpansionofnuclearpowerfor

70years,includingexploringthebuildingofa

majornewpowerstation.

ThesecondconsultationontheReviewof

ElectricityMarketArrangements(REMA)was

publishedinMarch2024.Theproposedreforms

AnalysisbyCornwallInsight5warnedthattheimpactofschemessuchastheInflationCleanHeatMarketMechanism.TheschemeDifference(CfD)andtheCapacityMarket(CM)

ReductionActintheUnitedStatesandtheEU’sGreenDealIndustrialPlancouldwillnowbeimplementedfromApril2025,whereschemes.Marketreformcaninfluencethesiting

inthefirstyearmanufacturerswillberequiredtoofnewassetsandhowtheywilloperate.

divertfinancingawayfromtheUK.Meanwhile,EY’sbiannualRenewableEnergy

CountryAttractivenessIndex(RECAI)6sawtheUKfalltoseventhplaceintheglobal

rankings.ThereportreferencedtheContractsforDifference(CfD)AllocationRound5,

inwhichnobidswerereceivedforoffshorewindcontracts.Thereportdid,however,

acknowledgethat“incentivesforonshorewindprojectsoffersomehope.”

sellheatpumpsequivalentto6%oftheirboiler

salesintheUK.TheGovernmentalsoincreased

themaximumgrantsavailabletoconsumers

undertheBoilerUpgradeScheme(BUS).

MarchalsosawtheGovernmentcommittedto

supportingthebuildingofnewunabatedgas

powerstationstoensureasafeandreliable

alternativeenergysourceduringperiodsofhigh

TheUKGovernmenthassinceincreasedthemaximumpricesavailableforoffshore

windby66%forCfDAllocationRound6andhasdevelopedproposalstoreview

applicationsfrom2025basedontheenvironmentalandeconomicsustainability

oftheindustry.

TheFutureHomesandBuildingStandard

consultationclosedinMarch,proposingthat

newhomesbuiltfrom2025are‘zerocarbon

ready’andprohibitingtheinstallationoffossil

fuel-poweredheating.

demandandlowrenewablegeneration.

TheUKgeneralelectiontookplaceonthe

4July2024.Allmodellingtookplacebeforethe

generalelectionandreflectspolicyandambition

priortotheelection.

InJanuary2024,theUKGovernmentpublished

thecivilnuclearroadmap,whichoutlinedplans

3.uk/economy/in?ationandpriceindices/articles/costo?ivinginsights/energytrendsbulletin

4.uk/economy/in?ationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpricein?ation/march2024

5/press/?erce-global-competition-could-jeopardise-investment-in-the-uks-renewable-energy-sector/

6/en_gl/insights/energy-resources/are-the-global-winds-of-change-sending-offshore-in-a-new-direction

NavigatingFutureEnergyScenarios2024

FutureEnergyScenarios:ESOPathwaystoNetZeroissplitintothree

keychaptersthisyear:

FES2024graphicelements

Withinthepublication,you’llseeaselectionofgraphicelementsusedthroughouttheReducing

?TheReducingGreatBritain’sEmissionschapterreflectsontheUK’slegislatedtarget

GreatBritain’sEmissions,EnergyConsumerandEnergySystemchapters.Thesegraphictodecarboniseby2050.

elementsallsignifycontentofimportance,whichareoutlinedbelowalongwithanoverviewof

theirpurpose.

?TheEnergyConsumerchaptercoversresidential,industrial,commercialandtransport

sectorsandconsidershowdecarbonisationaffectsindividualconsumers.

GraphicelementDescriptor?TheEnergySystemchapterexploreshowtotalGreatBritaindemandismetusing

decarbonisedenergysourcessuchaselectricity,hydrogen,naturalgasandbioenergy.

Insightsrelatingdirectlytoournetzeropathwaysandthe

Flexibilityiskeytoanetzeroenergysystemandsothisiscoveredinallchapters.

Counterfactualareindicatedwithringsinsetcoloursthroughoutthe

document.Whentwoormorepathwayscrossoverinassumptionsor

projections,wepresentcombinedpathwayringsnexttotheinsight.

Theroutetonetzero

Our‘routetonetzero’boxessummarisekeymeasuresandtalking

pointswebelievearecriticaltodrivingourkeymessageandactions,

whichcanbefoundintheExecutiveSummarychapter(page21).

Technologiesandactionswhichprovideflexibilitytotheenergy

systemarerepresentedinpurple.

Action1

Key

Whenakeyactionnumberisshownwithina“routetonetzero”or

“flexibility”box,itmeansitdirectlyrelatestooneofouractions,which

canbefoundintheExecutiveSummarychapter(page21).

ExecutiveSummary

Introduction19

Comparingourpathways20

Keymessageandactions21

Keycomparisonchartof

decarbonisationmile