TED英語演講稿：如何讓選擇更容易

TED英語演講稿：如何讓選擇更容易

簡介：面對商場里五花八門的商品，你的選擇恐懼癥又犯了嗎?美國

哥倫比亞大學商學教授SheenaIyengar研究如何讓你在做選擇時更容易

。為了讓你的選擇省時省力，商家又會有哪些訣竅呢? Doyouknowhowmanychoicesyoumakeinatypicalday?Doyouknowhowmanychoicesyoumakeintypicalweek?Irecentlydidasurveywithover2,000Americans,andtheaveragenumberofchoicesthatthetypicalAmericanreportsmakingisabout70inatypicalday.

TherewasalsorecentlyastudydonewithCEOsinwhichtheyfollowedCEOsaroundforawholeweek.AndthesescientistssimplydocumentedallthevarioustasksthattheseCEOsengagedinandhowmuchtimetheyspentengaginginmakingdecisionsrelatedtothesetasks.AndtheyfoundthattheaverageCEOengagedinabout139tasksinaweek.Eachtaskwasmadeupofmany,many,manysub-choicesofcourse.50percentoftheirdecisionsweremadeinnineminutesorless.Onlyabout12percentofthedecisionsdidtheymakeanhourormoreoftheirtime.Thinkaboutyourownchoices.Doyouknowhowmanychoicesmakeitintoyournineminutecategoryversusyouronehourcategory?Howwelldoyouthinkyou'redoingatmanagingthosechoices? TodayIwanttotalkaboutoneofthebiggestmoderndaychoosingproblemsthatwehave,whichisthechoiceoverloadproblem.Iwanttotalkabouttheproblemandsomepotentialsolutions.NowasItalkaboutthisproblem,I'mgoingtohavesomequestionsforyouandI'mgoingtowanttoknowyouranswers.SowhenIaskyouaquestion,sinceI'mblind,onlyraiseyourhandifyouwanttoburnoffsomecalories.(Laughter)Otherwise,whenIaskyouaquestion,andifyouranswerisyes,I'dlikeyoutoclapyourhands.Soformyfirstquestionforyoutoday:Areyouguysreadytohearaboutthechoiceoverloadproblem?(Applause)Thankyou. SowhenIwasagraduatestudentatStanfordUniversity,Iusedtogotothisvery,veryupscalegrocerystore;atleastatthattimeitwastrulyupscale.ItwasastorecalledDraeger's.Nowthisstore,itwasalmostlikegoingtoanamusementpark.Theyhad250

differentkindsofmustardsandvinegarsandover500differentkindsoffruitsandvegetablesandmorethantwodozendifferentkindsofbottledwater--andthiswasduringatimewhenweactuallyusedtodrinktapwater.Iusedtolovegoingtothisstore,butononeoccasionIaskedmyself,wellhowcomeyouneverbuyanything?Here'stheiroliveoilaisle.Theyhadover

75differentkindsofoliveoil,includingthosethatwereinalockedcasethatcamefromthousand-year-oldolivetrees. SoIonedaydecidedtopayavisittothemanager,andIaskedthemanager,"Isthismodelofofferingpeopleallthischoicereallyworking?"Andhepointedtothebusloadsoftouriststhatwouldshowupeveryday,withcamerasreadyusually.Wedecidedtodoalittleexperiment,andwepickedjamforourexperiment.Here'stheirjamaisle.Theyhad348differentkindsofjam.Wesetupalittletastingboothrightneartheentranceofthestore.Wethereputoutsixdifferentflavorsofjamor24differentflavorsofjam,andwelookedattwothings:First,inwhichcasewerepeoplemorelikelytostop,samplesomejam?Morepeoplestoppedwhentherewere24,about60percent,thanwhenthereweresix,about40percent.Thenextthingwelookedatisinwhichcasewerepeoplemorelikelytobuyajarofjam.Nowweseetheoppositeeffect.Ofthepeoplewhostoppedwhentherewere24,onlythreepercentofthemactuallyboughtajarofjam.Ofthepeoplewhostoppedwhenthereweresix,wellnowwesawthat30percentofthemactuallyboughtajarofjam.Nowifyoudothemath,peoplewereatleastsixtimesmorelikelytobuyajarofjamiftheyencounteredsixthaniftheyencountered24. Nowchoosingnottobuyajarofjamisprobablygoodforus--atleastit'sgoodforourwaistlines--butitturnsoutthatthischoiceoverloadproblemaffectsuseveninveryconsequentialdecisions.Wechoosenottochoose,evenwhenitgoesagainstourbestself-interests.Sonowforthetopicoftoday:financialsavings.NowI'mgoingtodescribetoyouastudyIdidwithGurHuberman,EmirKamenica,WeiJangwherewelookedattheretirementsavingsdecisionsofnearlya

millionAmericansfromabout650plansallintheU.S.Andwhatwelookedatwaswhetherthenumberoffundofferingsavailableinaretirementsavingsplan,the401(k)plan,doesthataffectpeople'slikelihoodtosavemorefortomorrow.Andwhatwefoundwasthatindeedtherewasacorrelation.Sointheseplans,wehadabout657plansthatrangedfromofferingpeopleanywherefromtwoto59differentfundofferings.Andwhatwefoundwasthat,themorefundsoffered,indeed,therewaslessparticipationrate. Soifyoulookattheextremes,thoseplansthatofferedyoutwofunds,participationrateswerearoundinthemid-70s--stillnotashighaswewantittobe.Inthoseplansthatofferednearly60funds,participationrateshavenowdroppedtoaboutthe60thpercentile.Nowitturnsoutthatevenifyoudochoosetoparticipatewhentherearemorechoicespresent,eventhen,ithasnegativeconsequences.Soforthosepeoplewhodidchoosetoparticipate,themorechoicesavailable,themorelikelypeopleweretocompletelyavoidstocksorequityfunds.Themorechoicesavailable,themorelikelytheyweretoputalltheirmoneyinpuremoneymarketaccounts.Nowneitheroftheseextremedecisionsarethekindsofdecisionsthatanyofuswouldrecommendforpeoplewhenyou'reconsideringtheirfuturefinancialwell-being. Well,overthepastdecade,wehaveobservedthreemainnegativeconsequencestoofferingpeoplemoreandmorechoices.They'remorelikelytodelaychoosing--procrastinateevenwhenitgoesagainsttheirbestself-interest.They'remorelikelytomakeworsechoices--worsefinancialchoices,medicalchoices.

They'remorelikelytochoosethingsthatmakethemlesssatisfied,evenwhentheydoobjectivelybetter.Themainreasonforthisisbecause,wemightenjoygazingatthosegiantwallsofmayonnaises,mustards,vinegars,jams,butwecan'tactuallydothemathofcomparingandcontrastingandactuallypickingfromthatstunningdisplay.SowhatIwanttoproposetoyoutodayarefoursimpletechniques--techniquesthatwehavetestedinonewayoranotherindifferentresearchvenues--

thatyoucaneasilyapplyinyourbusinesses. Thefirst:Cut.You'vehearditsaidbefore,butit'sneverbeenmoretruethantoday,thatlessismore.PeoplearealwaysupsetwhenIsay,"Cut."They'realwaysworriedthey'regoingtoloseshelfspace.Butinfact,whatwe'reseeingmoreandmoreisthatifyouarewillingtocut,getridofthoseextraneousredundantoptions,wellthere'sanincreaseinsales,there'saloweringofcosts,thereisanimprovementofthechoosingexperience.WhenProctor&Gamblewentfrom26differentkindsofHead&Shouldersto15,theysawanincreaseinsalesby10percent.WhentheGoldenCatCorporationgotridoftheir10worst-sellingcatlitterproducts,theysawanincreaseinprofitsby87percent--afunctionofbothincreaseinsalesandloweringofcosts.Youknow,theaveragegrocerystoretodayoffersyou45,000products.ThetypicalWalmarttodayoffersyou100,000products.Buttheninthlargestretailer,theninthbiggestretailerintheworldtodayisAldi,anditoffersyouonly1,400products-

-onekindofcannedtomatosauce. Nowinthefinancialsavingsworld,IthinkoneofthebestexamplesthathasrecentlycomeoutonhowtobestmanagethechoiceofferingshasactuallybeensomethingthatDavidLaibsonwasheavilyinvolvedindesigning,whichwastheprogramthattheyhaveatHarvard.

EverysingleHarvardemployeeisnowautomaticallyenrolledinalifecyclefund.Forthosepeoplewhoactuallywanttochoose,they'regiven20funds,not300ormorefunds.Youknow,often,peoplesay,"Idon'tknowhowtocut.They'reallimportantchoices."AndthefirstthingIdoisIasktheemployees,"Tellmehowthesechoicesaredifferentfromoneanother.Andifyouremployeescan'ttellthemapart,neithercanyourconsumers."Nowbeforewestartedoursessionthisafternoon,IhadachatwithGary.AndGarysaidthathewouldbewillingtoofferpeopleinthisaudienceanall-expenses-paidfreevacationtothemostbeautifulroadintheworld.Here'sadescriptionoftheroad.AndI'dlikeyoutoreadit.AndnowI'llgiveyouafewsecondstoreaditandthenIwantyoutoclapyourhandsif

you'rereadytotakeGaryuponhisoffer.(Lightclapping)Okay.Anybodywho'sreadytotakehimuponhisoffer.Isthatall?Allright,letmeshowyousomemoreaboutthis.(Laughter)Youguysknewtherewasatrick,didn'tyou.(Honk)Nowwho'sreadytogoonthistrip.(Applause)(Laughter)IthinkImighthaveactuallyheardmorehands. Allright.Nowinfact,youhadobjectivelymoreinformationthefirsttimearoundthanthesecondtimearound,butIwouldventuretoguessthatyoufeltthatitwasmorerealthesecondtimearound.Becausethepicturesmadeitfeelmorerealtoyou.Whichbringsmetothesecondtechniqueforhandlingthechoiceoverloadproblem,whichisconcretization.Thatinorderforpeopletounderstandthedifferencesbetweenthechoices,theyhavetobeabletounderstandtheconsequencesassociatedwitheachchoice,andthattheconsequencesneedtobefeltinavividsortofway,inaveryconcreteway.Whydopeoplespendanaverageof15to30percentmorewhentheyuseanATMcardoracreditcardasopposedtocash?Becauseitdoesn'tfeellikerealmoney.Anditturnsoutthatmakingitfeelmoreconcretecanactuallybeaverypositivetooltouseingettingpeopletosavemore. SoastudythatIdidwithShlomoBenartziandAlessandroPrevitero,wedidastudywithpeopleatING--employeesthatareallworkingatING--andnowthesepeoplewereallinasessionwherethey'redoingenrollmentfortheir401(k)plan.

Andduringthatsession,wekeptthesessionexactlythewayitusedtobe,butweaddedonelittlething.Theonelittlethingweaddedwasweaskedpeopletojustthinkaboutallthepositivethingsthatwouldhappeninyourlifeifyousavedmore.Bydoingthatsimplething,therewasanincreaseinenrollmentby20percentandtherewasanincreaseintheamountofpeoplewillingtosaveortheamountthattheywerewillingtoputdownintotheirsavingsaccountbyfourpercent. Thethirdtechnique:Categorization.Wecanhandlemorecategoriesthanwecanhandlechoices.Soforexample,here'sastudywedidinamagazineaisle.ItturnsoutthatinWegmansgrocery

storesupanddownthenortheastcorridor,themagazineaislesrangeanywherefrom331differentkindsofmagazinesallthewayupto664.Butyouknowwhat?IfIshowyou600magazinesandIdividethemupinto10categories,versusIshowyou400magazinesanddividethemupinto20categories,youbelievethatIhavegivenyoumorechoiceandabetterchoosingexperienceifIgaveyouthe400thanifIgaveyouthe600.

Becausethecategoriestellmehowtotellthemapart. Herearetwodifferentjewelrydisplays.Oneiscalled"Jazz"andtheotheroneiscalled"Swing."IfyouthinkthedisplayontheleftisSwingandthedisplayontherightisJazz,clapyourhands.(LightClapping)Okay,there'ssome.IfyouthinktheoneontheleftisJazzandtheoneontherightisSwing,clapyourhands.Okay,abitmore.Nowitturnsoutyou'reright.TheoneontheleftisJazzandtheoneontherightisSwing,butyouknowwhat?Thisisahighlyuselesscategorizationscheme.(Laughter)Thecategoriesneedtosaysomethingtothechooser,notthechoice-maker.Andyouoftenseethatproblemwhenitcomesdowntothoselonglistsofallthesefunds.Whoaretheyactuallysupposedtobeinforming? Myfourthtechnique:Conditionforcomplexity.Itturnsoutwecanactuallyhandlealotmoreinformationthanwethinkwecan,we'vejustgottotakeitalittleeasier.Wehavetograduallyincreasethecomplexity.I'mgoingtoshowyouoneexampleofwhatI'mtalkingabout.Let'stakeavery,verycomplicateddecision:buyingacar.Here'saGermancarmanufacturerthatgivesyoutheopportunitytocompletelycustommakeyourcar.You'vegottomake60differentdecisions,completelymakeupyourcar.Nowthesedecisionsvaryinthenumberofchoicesthattheyofferperdecision.Carcolors,exteriorcarcolors--I'vegot56choices.Engines,gearshift--fourchoices.SonowwhatI'mgoingtodoisI'mgoingtovarytheorderinwhichthesedecisionsappear.Sohalfofthecustomersaregoingtogofromhighchoice,56carcolors,tolowchoice,fourgearshifts.Theotherhalfofthecustomersaregoingtogofromlowchoice,

fourgearshifts,to56carcolors,highchoice. WhatamIgoingtolookat?Howengagedyouare.Ifyoukeephittingthedefaultbuttonperdecisio