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GlobalBatteryMarket
Firstmoverswilllikelykeeptheirleads
StephenChan
AssociateDirector
JeremyKim
AssociateDirector
Oct.10,2024
Thisreportdoesnotconstitutearatingaction
2
KeyTakeaways
?Whatdoweexpectoverthenext12-24months?
?Weanticipateslowinggrowthinelectricvehicle(EV)salesinEuropeandU.S.;theongoingelectrificationtrendwillstillsupportlongtermgrowthinglobalEVbatteries.
?ChineseandKoreanbatteryplayerswillremainintheleadintheglobalbatterymarketontheirtechnologyadvantagesandstrongtieswithautomakersinthenextfewyearsatleast.
?WewilllikelyseemarketconsolidationinChina'sbatterymarketunderthenewguidancebytheChinesegovernmenttoimproveovercapacityissues.
?Creditimplications:
?Economiesofscaleandrolloutsofnew,better-pricedproductswilllikelyimproveprofitabilityforContemporaryAmperexTechnology(CATL)(A-/Stable/--).Weanticipateitsfreeoperatingcashflow(FOCF)willfurtherincreaseoverthenexttwoyears,deepeningitsnetcashposition;
?InvestmentburdensremainhighforLGEnergySolutionLtd.(LGEnSol)(BBB+/Negative/--),givenitsaggressivecapacityexpansionamidslowingEVgrowthinitskeymarkets.Thiswilllikelyelevateitsdebt-to-EBITDAto2.5x-2.6xin2024-2025from1.5xin2023.
?Ratingtrends:
?SolidifiedbusinessstrengthandsustainednetcashpositionsupportsthestableratingoutlookonCATL.
?ThenegativeoutlookonLGEnSolreflectsourviewthatthehighcapitalexpenditure(capex)needsfortheEVbatterydivisioncouldpressurethefinancialmetricsofitsparentLGChem.WeequalizeourratingonLGEnSoltothatonitsparent,givenitscoresubsidiarystatus.
Ratings
3
GlobalBatteryDemandWillFurtherGrowIn2024-2025,DrivenByChina
?Weestimatetheglobalbatterymarketwillsee30%-40%annualgrowthin2024-2025,mainlysupportedbyouranticipatedsalesgrowthofelectricvehicles(EVs)inChina.FadingEVsubsidiesinEuropeandlessaggressiveemissionstandardtargetsinU.S.couldmoderateEVsalesandbatterydemandgrowthintheseregionsduringtheperiod.
?Thatsaid,meaningfullaunchesofEVsatmoreaffordablepricesandnet-zeroemissiontargetsbydifferentcarmakersandcountrieswillstillsupportsustainableEVdemandgrowthoverthelongterm.
?BatteriesarethecorecomponentofEVsandcontributeto30%-50%ofEVs'productioncost.Webelievebatterieswillmaintainasolidlong-termgrowthtrajectory.
Batterydemandgrowthremainssolid
mnBatterydemandinEU27Batterydemandinothers
BatterydemandinChinaBatterydemandinUS
——Globaldemandgrowth(rightscale)
(Gigawatthours)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
(Year-on-year)
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
20232024e2025e2026e2027e2028e
DataasofSept24,2024.e--Estimate.Sources:S&PGlobalRatings,S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence,S&PGlobalMobility.
S&PGlobal
EVpenetrationwillcontinuetogrow
Region/Countries
2023
2024e
2025e
2026e
2030e*
Europe10
22.2%
<20%
20%-25%
20%-25%
55-60%
China(Mainland)
32.9%
Approx.40%
44%-48%
48%-52%
70%-75%
U.S.
9.2%
10%-11%
13%-16%
16%-22%
30%-35%
Global
16.5%
18%-19%
19%-20%
20%-22%
45%-50%
Europe10--Germany,France,U.K.,Italy,Spain,Belgium,Austria,Netherlands,Sweden,andNorway.e--Estimate.BEVs--Batteryelectricvehicles.PHEVs--Plug-inhybridelectricvehicles.*2030productionprojectionsbyS&PGlobalMobility.
Source:2019-2023EVVolumes;2025estimatesbyS&PGlobalRatings.
Ratings
4
TheMarketLeadersWillStayInFront
?Webelievetheglobaltopplayerswillcontinuetoleadthemarketoverthenextfewyears.Theiredgeonbatterytechnologyandmeaningfulcapacityavailablewillsupportbusinessgrowthandsustainstrongtieswithautomakers.
?Nevertheless,theirstrengthswillkeeptoageographicalfocus.ChineseplayerswilldominatetheChinesemarket.Meanwhile,theywillgraduallyexpandinEuropeandtakeEuropeansharefromKoreanplayers.KoreanplayerswillfocustheirgrowthstrategyintheU.S.
?Localizationpolicesforbatterysupplychainswillsupportmarketshareexpansionofemergingplayers(e.g.Northvolt,PowerCo).Buttheirshareswilllikelyremainlimitedgivenleadingplayershavepricingadvantagesfromeconomiesofscale.
AsiaplayerswillremaindominantinglobalbatterymarketTopthreeplayershaveedgeinspecificareas
CATLBYDOtherChineseplayersLGEnsolPanasonicSKOnSamsungOthers
(Marketshare)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
20232024e2025e2026e2027e2028e
Marketshareintermsofestimateddemand.e--Estimate.Sources:S&PGlobalRatings,S&PGlobalMobility.
S&PGlobal
Companyname
CATL*
BYD*
LGEnSol*
Rating
A-/Stable/--
Non-rated
BBB+/Negative/--
Batteryform
Prismatic,cylindrical
Prismatic
Pouch,cylindrical
Est.chemistrymixofsalesvolumein2023§
60%NCM;40%LFP
100%LFP
60%NCM;40%NCMA
Majorbatterytechnology
(1)FastchargingLFP:ShenxingPlus;
(2)Cell-to-Pack:QilinBattery
(3)Cell-to-Chassis
(1)BladeBatteryLFPtechnology
(2)Cell-to-Pack
(3)Cell-to-Body
(1)High-nickelNCMAbatteries
(2)NCMbatteries
(3)Pouch-typecell-to-packLFP
*CATL--ContemporaryAmperexTechnologyCo.,Ltd.BYD--BYDCo.Ltd.,LGEnSol--LGEnergySolution,Ltd.,§NCM--Nickel-Cobalt-Manganese,LFP--Lithiumironphosphate,NCMA--NickelCobaltManganeseAluminum.
Sources:S&PGlobalRatings,S&PMobility.
Ratings
5
MarketConsolidationInChinaBenefitsDominantLocalPlayers….
?ChinesebatteryplayershavebeenexpandingquicklytomeetdemandfromChina’sfast-growingEVmarket,especiallyinprioryears.EmergingorforeignplayersareunlikelytomeaningfullyscaleupinChinaduetofirst-moveradvantagesofincumbentlocalplayers.
?NewbatteryguidanceinChinawilllikelyencouragemarketconsolidationandbenefitleadingplayers.TheChinesegovernmenthasraisedindustrytechnologystandardsandminimumutilizationtargetsforindustryplayersasofJune20,2024.
?Weakerplayerswilllikelybesqueezedoutandthiswillgraduallyimprovethecountry’sovercapacityissueoverthenextfewyears.
ChineseplayerswillremaindominantinChina
CATLBYDCALBEVEEnergyGotionSunwodaGuangzhouGreatPowerFarasisEnergyOthers
(Marketshare)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
202320242025e2026e2027e2028eMarketshareintermsofestimateddemand.e--Estimate.Sources:S&PGlobalRatings,S&PGlobalMobility.
Chinesegovernmentistryingtoimprovesupplyissue
Requirements
DetailsonEVbatteries
Industrystatus
Energydensity
?NCMbatterycell:≥230Wh/kg;NCMbatterypack≥165Wh/kg;
?Batterycellwithothermaterials(e.g.LFP):≥165Wh/kg;batterypackwithothermaterials:≥120Wh/kg.
2024first7months:82%ofbatterypackwith
energydensityof
125wh/kg–160wh/kg
Lifecycle
?Batterycell:cyclelife≥1500times;capacityretentionrate≥80%
?Batterypack:cyclelife≥1000times;capacityretentionrate≥80%
N.A.
R&Dexpenses
Batterymanufacturersneedstoinvestatleast3%oftheir
mainbusinessrevenueannuallyonresearchanddevelopmentofbatterytechnology
N.A.
Utilization
Actualproductionvolumeoftheyear≥50%ofproductioncapacities
Somelowertierplayershave<30%utilization
Sources:TheMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology,ChinaAutomotiveBatteryInnovationAlliance,GaogongIndustryResearchInstitute,S&PGlobalRatings.
S&PGlobal
Ratings
6
…ButSlowingMarketGrowthWillFurtherIntensifyCompetitionInChina
?WeanticipateEVmarketgrowthinChinawilldeceleratetoabout30%in2024fromhigherdoubledigitsinprioryears.
?TheEVbatteryinstallation-to-productionratiodeclinedto47%in2024firsthalf,comparedwith70%in2021,asEVdemandgrowthslowedandbatteryproductionrose.
?China'scrowdedmarkethasweakenedpricingpowerintheindustry.Weakerplayershavelesscompetitiveproductofferingsandcouldlosevolumeandfaceweakerprofitabilityoverthenextonetotwoyears.
?Excessbatterysupplyandfurtherfreeoperatingcashoutflowsformanyplayerswillelevatetheirdebtleverage.
Somelower-tierplayersarestruggling……Andmanyarehighlyleveragedfromcapacityexpansion
20212022202320241H
(Est.EBITDAmargin)
25%
15%
5%
-5%
-15%
-25%
-35%
-45%
CATLEVEEnergyGotionCALBSunwodaGuangzhouFarasisREPT
GreatPowerEnergyBATTERO
Energy
OnlyCATLisrated.Dataofotherentitiesareourestimatesbasedontheirannualandinterimreports.Source:S&PGlobalRatings.
EBITDAFOCFNetdebtDebt-to-EBITDA(rightscale)
(Bil.RMB)
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
FarasisREPT
EVEGotionCALBSunwodaGuangzhou
greatpower
(x)
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Dataofaboveentitiesareourestimatesbasedontheir2023annualreports.FarasisandREPT’sdebt-to-EBITDAratiosarenegativeduetotheirnegativeEBITDA.FOCF—freeoperatingcashflow.Source:S&PGlobalRatings.
S&PGlobal
Ratings
7
KoreanProducers'InvestmentBurdensRemainSignificantInU.S.Market
?KoreanbatteryplayerswilllikelycontinuetoprioritizeexpansionintheU.S.,supportedbyAdvancedManufacturingProductCredit(AMPC)availableundertheInflationReductionAct.
?WeakeningEVdemandgrowthinU.S.coulddelaycapacityexpansion.Also,subjecttothepresidentialelectionresults,theremaybe
changestotheproductionincentiveprograms.Yet,investmentsbyKoreanbatterymakersremainsubstantialforcapturingshareintheregion.
?WebelievethemajorityofChineseplayerswillrefrainfrommeaningfuldirectinvestmentsduetointensifyingtensionbetweenChinaandtheU.S.GiventheU.S.’s“foreignentityofconcern”clause,Chinesebatteryplayerswon’teasilygettax-incentiveentitlementssowouldn’tbeascostcompetitiveintheU.S.
KoreanfirmswilldominateNorthAmericamarketCapacityadditionsintheU.S.beingdelayedorcancelled
CATLOtherChineseplayersLGEnsolSamsungSDISKOnTeslaPanasonicOthers
(Marketshare)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
20232024e2025e2026e2027e2028e
Marketshareintermsofestimateddemand.e--Estimate.Sources:S&PGlobalRatings,S&PGlobalMobility.
Batteryproducers
OEMpartner
Batteryplant
Plannedcapacity
Status
LGEnSol
GeneralMotors
Michiganplant
45Gwh
Strategicallyreviewing
LGEnSol
N.A.
Arizonaenergystorageplant
17Gwh
Heldoff
SKOn
FordMotor
BlueOvalSKBatteryPark
80+Gwh
Postponedtostartafter2026
Panasonic
Tesla
ThirdplantinU.S.
N.A.
Announcementdateisdelayed
Microvast
N.A.
Kentucky
19Gwh
Cancelled
Gwh--Gigawatthour.Theabovelistisnon-exhaustive.Sources:Companies’announcements,S&PGlobalRatings.
S&PGlobal
Ratings
8
TheCompetitiveLandscapeInEuropeIsStillEvolving
?ChineseandEuropeanplayersaregraduallyrampingupbatterycapacityinEuropeandwill,inourview,takesharefromKoreans,thetraditionalleadersinEurope,overthenextfewyears.
?Thatsaid,likelyslowingEVgrowthintheregioncouldhinderprogress.Anumberofbatteryproducershaveannouncedcancellationsordelaysoftheirexpansionplans,mainlyoninsufficientsecuredorders.
?Chineseplayershavepriceadvantagesthatwillsupportfurtherpenetrationviabatteryexportsover2024-2025.WeestimatebatterycostinChinawillremainatleast30%lowerthanlocallyproducedbatteriesinEuropeduringtheperiod.Thisismainlyduetocheapermaterialprocessing/refiningcostsandlowerlaborandmanufacturingcostsinChina.
CompetitivelandscapeinEuropeisstillevolvingRecentannouncementsofcapacitydelaysinEurope
players
LGEnsolNorthvoltOthers
OtherChineseSamsungSDIVolkswagen
CATLSKOn
EnvisionGroup
(Marketshare)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
20232024e2025e2026e2027e2028e
Marketshareintermsofestimateddemand.e--Estimate.Sources:S&PGlobalRatings,S&PGlobalMobility.
Batteryproducers
OEMpartner
Batteryplant
Plannedcapacity
Status
Northvolt
BMW
Swedenplant
60Gwh
Strategicallyreviewing
ACC
StellantisandMercedes
ItalyandGermanyplant
40Gwheach
Paused
SVOLTEnergy
N.A.
Germany
16Gwh
Cancelled
PowerCo
Volkswagen
FourthplantinEurope
N.A
Delayed
Theabovelistisnon-exhaustive.Sources:Companies’announcements,S&PGlobalRatings.
S&PGlobal
Ratings
9
NewTechnologyCouldbeAGameChangerButItWillTakeTime
?Weexpectsolidstatebattery(SSB)willbearevolutionarytechnology.ThisisbecauseSSBhashighenergydensity,lowerpackcomponentcosts,andreducedflammability.
?SomebatteryplayersaretargetingtomassproduceSSBasearlyas2026.Thatsaid,weanticipatethemarketshareofSSBwillremainlessthan2%until2030.ThisisbecauseinitiallythepriceofSSBwillbeatapremiumtoliquidstatebatteries,partlybecauseoflow
availablecapacityforproduction.Thecapacitybuild-outwilltaketime,giventhemanufacturingprocessofSSBisdifferent.
?Meanwhile,LFP-andNCM-relatedcathodechemistrywillcontinuetobewidelyadoptedbyautomakersoverthelongterm.Othercathodechemistrycouldbehardtoscaleupduetoinstabilityofbatteryperformance,lowenergydensityoraffordability.
(Marketshare)
LFPNCANCMNCMAOthers
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
202220232024e2025e2026e2027e2028e
Marketshareintermsofestimateddemand.LFP--Lithiumironphosphate,NCMA--NickelCobaltManganeseAluminum,NCM--Nickel-Cobalt-Manganese,NCMA--NickelCobaltAluminum.e--Estimate.Sources:S&PGlobalRatings,S&PGlobal
LFP-andNCM-relatedtechnologywillremaindominantManyplayershavenospecificcapacitytargetonSSB
Batteryproducers
Technologypartner
Plannedcapacity
Targeted
productionyear
CATL
N.A.
Smallbatches
2027
BYD
N.A.
Smallbatches
2027
LGEnSol
N.A.
N.A.
2030
SamsungSDI
N.A.
N.A.
2027
SKOn
SolidPower
N.A.
2027
Toyota
N.A.
N.A.
2027
Panasonic
N.A.
Onsmalldrones
2029
PowerCo
QuantumScape
40Gwh
2026
Mobility.Theabovelistisnon-exhaustive.Sources:Companies’announcements,S&PGlobalRatings.
S&PGlobal
Ratings
10
CATLWillSeeHigherGrowthThanLGEnSolOverOurForecastPeriod
?CATLwilllikelyexpandannualsalesvolumeby10%-21%over2024-2025.DriversincludethegrowingEVmarketinChina,withsomeproductiongraduallyexpandingtoEurope.Thiswillmitigatetheimpactoflowerbatterypricesandsupport3%-7%annualrevenuegrowthoverthisyearandthenext.
?CATLwillalsotestalicensing,royalty,andservicesmodeltocooperatewithU.S.automakers.Thisapproach,ifimplementedsmoothly,willlikelyhelpthecompanytomitigategeopoliticalrisks.
?Meanwhile,weexpectLGEnSol’sEVbatterydemandgrowthwillslowinkeymarketsover2024-2025,includingtheU.S.andEurope.Thecompany’ssalesvolumewilllikelydeclineslightlyin2024,beforeresuminggrowthin2025.
RevenueandvolumegrowthofCATLandLGEnSol
CATL'srevenue
LGEnsol'srevenue
LGEnsol'ssalesvolume(rightscale)
CATL'ssalesvolume(rightscale)
80
800
(Gigawatthours)
700
(Bil.US$)
60
600
500
40
400
300
20
200
100
0
0
2022
2023
2025e
2024e
2026e
e--Estimate.Sources:Companies’announcements,S&PGlobalRatings.
CATLwillgraduallyexpandtoEuropefromChina
Estimatedproductioncapacityexposurein2023
Region/CountryCATLLGEnSol
GreaterChina
98%
40%
Europe
2%
30%~35%
Japan/Korea
N.A.
10%
NorthAmerica
N.A.
15%~20%
Totalproductioncapacity(gigawatthour)
552
280
Sources:Companies’announcements,S&PGlobalMobility.S&PGlobalRatings.
S&PGlobal
Ratings
11
RatingBufferTrendsAreDivergingForCATLAndLGEnSol
?WeanticipateamodestEBITDAmarginexpansionforCATLover2024-2026.Thisissupportedbyimprovingeconomiesofscaleandtherolloutofnewproductswithbettermargins.ForLGEnSol,weforecastitsoperatingmargin,excludingAMPCbenefits,willcomeunderpressurefromlowerutilization.Theblendedmargin,includingAMPC,couldimprove,butwithsomedownsiderisks.
?HigheroperatingcashflowandslowingcapexamidmoderatingEVgrowthwillexpandCATL’sFOCFanddeepenitsnetcashpositionin2024-2026.Thecompanywillalsoinvestmorethan4%ofannualrevenueintotechnologydevelopment.
?WerevisedtheoutlookonLGEnSoltonegativeinMay2024onexpectationsthatitsdebtleveragewilldeterioratein2024,andremainelevatedin2025.Thisisduetoslowingdemandgrowthandintensifyingcompetition,amidanongoinghighcapexcycle.
(Debt-to-EBITDAratio)
3.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0
LGEnSol’smargincouldimproveontaxincentiveinU.S.……Butitsleveragewillelevateoncapacityexpansion
(EBITDAmargin)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
CATL'sEBITDAmargin
OCATL'sR&Dratio(rightscale)
LGEnsol'sEBITDAmargin
OLGEnsol'sR&Dratio(rightscale)
202220232024e2025e2026e
(R&Das%ofrevenue)
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
(FOCFbil.US$)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
CATL'sFOCF
OCATL'sleverage(rightscale)
LGEnsol'sFOCF
oLGEnsol'sleverage(rightscale)
202220232024e2025e2026e
R&D—Researchanddevelopment.e--Estimate.Source:S&PGlobalRatings.FOCF—freeoperatingcashflow.e--Estimate.Source:S&PGlobalRatings.
S&PGlobal
RelatedResearch
Commentary
?GlobalAutoOutlook:MorePlayers,LessProfit
,Oct.09,2024
?Chinaaheadindeliveringaffordableelectricmobility
,May.29,2024
?ChinaEVStartupsStrugglingToStayAfloat
,May.28,2024
?AsianBatteryMakersAreShiftingStrategiesToHoldOntoGlobalLead
,Oct05,2023
?KoreaIsOnTheBrinkOfABatteryBoom
,Dec.06,2022
?BatterySuppliers,AutomakersToTakeChargeAsPricesRise
,May.18,2022
?High-FlyingBatteryMakersHaveMuchToWinAndLose
,Jun.21,2021
ResearchUpdates
?ContemporaryAmperexTechnologyUpgradedTo'A-'OnSustainedBusinessGrowth,LowLeverage;OutlookStable
,May.07,2024
?ResearchUpdate:LGChem,LGEnergySolutionOutlookRevisedToNegativeOnAggressiveExpansionInvestments;'BBB+'RatingsAffirmed
,May.28,2024
S&PGlobal
Ratings12
S&PGlobal
Ratings
Ratings
14
AnalyticalContacts
StephenChan
AssociateDirector+8522532-8088
stephen.chan@
VittoriaFerraris
ManagingDirector+390272111207
vittoria.ferraris@
JeremyKim
AssociateDirector+8522532-8096
jeremy.kim@
NishitKMadlani
ManagingDirector+1(212)4384070
nishit.madlani@
ClaireYuan
Director
+8522533-3542
claire.yuan@
DannyHuang
ManagingDirector+8522532-8078
danny.huang@
JunHongPark
Director
+85225333538
junghong.park@
CrystalLing
SeniorAnalyst
+8522533-3586
crystal.ling@
S&PGlobal
Ratings15
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