【深度報告】2023年全球電力評論（英）-EMBER

Global

ElectricityReview

2023

Windandsolarreachrecordhighin2022,andexpectedtodrivefallingemissionsassoonas2023.

April2023

2

EMB蘭R

About

Ember’sfourthannualGlobalElectricityReviewaimstoprovidethemost

transparentandup-to-dateoverviewofchangesinglobalelectricitygenerationin2022andarealisticsummaryofhow“ontrack”theelectricitytransitionisforlimitingglobalheatingto1.5degrees.

Thereportanalyseselectricitydatafrom78countriesrepresenting93%ofglobalelectricitydemandandincludesestimatedchangesintheremaininggeneration.ItalsodivesdeeperintothetoptenCO2emittingcountriesandregions,accountingforover80%ofglobalCO2emissions.

Wemakeallofthedatafreelyaccessibletoempowerotherstodotheirownanalysisandhelpspeedtheswitchtocleanelectricity.

Leadauthor

Ma?gorzataWiatros-Motyka

Otherauthorsandcontributors

DaveJones,HannahBroadbent,NicolasFulghum,ChelseaBruce-Lockhart,

ReynaldoDizon,PhilMacDonald,CharlesMoore,AlisonCandlin,UniLee,Libby

Copsey,SamHawkins,MattEwen,BryonyWorthington,HarryBenham,Michele

Trueman,MuyiYang,AdityaLolla,AchmedShahramEdianto,Pawe?Czy?ak,SarahBrown,ChrisRosslowe,RichardBlack

PeerreviewersontheAdvisoryBoard

MarionBachelet(PIE-PooledFundonInternationalEnergy),KingsmillBond(RMI),KrzysztofBolesta(EuropeanCommision),TobyLockwood(CleanAirTaskForce),LauriMyllyvirta(CentreforResearchonEnergyandCleanAir),OliverThen(vgbeenergye.V.),ScottSmouse(EnerconnexGlobal,LLC).

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Coverimage

AfishingboatpassesbywindturbineswhirlingtogenerateelectricityatanoffshorewindfarminNantong,eastChinasJiangsuprovince.

Credit:

ImagechinaLimited

/AlamyStockPhoto

Disclaimer

Theinformationinthisreportiscompleteandcorrecttothebestofourknowledge,butifyouspotanerror,pleaseemailinfo@

CreativeCommons

ThisreportispublishedunderaCreativeCommonsShareAlikeAttributionLicence(CCBY-SA4.0).Youareactivelyencouragedtoshareandadaptthereport,butyoumustcredittheauthorsandtitle,andyoumustshareanymaterialyoucreateunderthesamelicence.

Copyright?Ember,2023

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Contents

6Foreword

9ExecutiveSummary

13Pathwayfor1.5C

18ElectricityTransitionin2022

25TheBigPicture

25Windandsolaremergeastheworld’sfuturesuperpowers

35Theworld’slargestcleanelectricitysourcesareunderperforming

43Closetoatippingpointwherecleansourcesmeetalldemandgrowth

48Aneweraofdecliningpowersectoremissions

57GlobalElectricityTrends

58Generation

63Demand

68Emissions

73ElectricitySourceTrends

74Solar

79Wind

84Hydro

89Coal

94Bioenergy

99Gas

104Nuclear

109CountryandRegionDeepDives

110China

115UnitedStates

120India

125EuropeanUnion

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Contents

130Japan

135Russia

140SouthKorea

145SaudiArabia

150Indonesia

155Iran

160Conclusion

162Supportingmaterials

162

Methodology

162Acknowledgements

Highlights

+19%

Changeinglobalwindandsolargeneration

+1.1%

Changeinglobalcoalgeneration

-0.2%

Changeinglobalgasgeneration

Foreword

Aneweraofcleanpower-

nomoreexcuses

Chile’sMinisterofEnergy,DiegoPardow,andEmber’sNon-ExecutiveChairs,BaronessBryonyWorthingtonandHarryBenham,reflectonthefindingsoftheGlobalElectricityReviewandthejourneyaheadastheworldtransitionstocleanelectricity.

“Trackingprogressonhowourelectricityisgeneratediscritical,asitisnotonlyahugesourceofgreenhousegases,itisalsoneededasanenablerofacleanerandmore

efficientenergysystemoverall.”

BaronessBryonyWorthingtonEmber’sNon-ExecutiveChair

“Westillhavealongjourneytotravel,withmanychallengesaheadandwithaclear

objective:wemustactquickly,alwaysputtingpeopleatthecentre.Therearenomore

excuses.”

DiegoPardow

Chile’sMinisterofEnergy

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Significantstrides

ForewordfromEmber’sNon-ExecutiveChairs

WearepleasedtointroducetheGlobalElectricityReview2023fromEmber,nowinitsfourthyear,inwhichwehighlightagainthecontinuedsurgeincleanpowergenerationworldwide.

Thisreportshowcasesthesignificantstridesmadeinthetransitiontowardsa

sustainableanddecarbonizedenergysystem,andthepromisingoutlookfor

achievingthecriticalmilestoneofpeakemissionsfromthepowersector–perhapsinthiscomingyear.Windandsolararegrowingatbetween15-20%pabasedon

a10yearaverage,solooksettoexceedincreasesinannualelectricitydemandbytheendof2023.

Theworldhasabundantsuppliesofwindandsolar,andthisreportdocuments

how,throughtechnicalinnovationandpolicyexecution,thisabundancehasbeenconvertedintoon-the-groundenergysupply.Oftenatalowercostthanfossilfuelsandfasterthanothersourcesofcleanelectricity.

Othercleannon-fossilfueltechnologiesarealsoplayingtheirpart-nuclearcouldbeenteringarenaissanceinsomecountriesbuttherehavealsobeensetbacks,asunusualweatheraffectedbothhydroandnuclearplant.

Trackingprogressonhowourelectricityisgeneratediscritical,asitisnotonlya

hugesourceofgreenhousegases,itisalsoneededasanenablerofacleanerandmoreefficientenergysystemoverall.Astransportandheatsectorsincreasingly

electrify,demandwillincrease,providingastrongerinvestmentcasefornewcleancapacity.Butfossilfuelsarestillprovidingthebackboneoftheelectricitysysteminmanylargeeconomiesandweneedtounderstandandreplicatetheunderlyingsuccessfactorsforrapiddecarbonisation.

Emberiscommittedtousingdataanalysistotellthestoryofthecleantransitionandtoprovidinginsightsthatcanincreasethepaceofchange.Wehopeyoufindthisreportandtheunderlyingpublicdatasetsusefulandpleaseprovideuswithfeedbacksowecancontinuetoimprovethispublication.

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Nomoreexcuses

ForewordfromChile’sMinisterofEnergy,DiegoPardow

LastSeptember,whenIhadbeenChile’sMinisterofEnergyfortwoweeks,Ihad

totraveltotheLosLagosregioninthesouthofthecountry.Inoneoftheactivitiesonmyschedule,IhadtheopportunitytomeetRodrigoCastillo,ownerofamedicalsupplycompanywho–thankstoagovernmentprogram–wasabletobuyan

electriccarforhisdeliveries.

In2019,Rodrigofaced–likethevastmajorityofChileans–asignificantriseinthepriceoffossilfuels.Addedtothiswasanincreaseininflation,whichcausedanoverallriseinthecostoflivingforpeople.

Today,thankstoelectrifyinghistransport,Rodrigohasmanagedtoreduce

hisexpensesbyathird,whichhasmadehiscompanymorecompetitiveinhis

region.Heisaconcreteexampleofhowthetransition–inthiscasethrough

electromobility–canoffernotonlycleanercitiesandbetterjobsbutalsoconcreteimprovementsforcitizens.Thatiswhatagreeneconomyisallabout.

Inrecentyears,Chilehasmadeimportantprogresswithrespecttoitstransition.ThelatestachievementshavepositionedChileasthebestemergingcountrytoinvestinrenewableenergies,addedtothehighpenetrationofcleanenergiesinoursystem,withlastyear’smilestonestandingoutthat,forthefirsttime,solarandwindovertookcoalinelectricitygeneration.

Inthatrespect,2023seemspromisingatagloballevel,especiallythankstothe

predictionofthisreport,whichindicatesthatemissionsfromtheelectricitysectorcouldbegintodecreaseasofthisyear.Butwestillhavealongjourneytotravel,

withmanychallengesaheadandwithaclearobjective:wemustactquickly,alwaysputtingpeopleatthecentre.Therearenomoreexcuses.

ExecutiveSummary

Windandsolarreacharecord12%ofglobalelectricityin

2022

Assoonas2023,windandsolarcouldpushtheworldintoanew

eraoffallingfossilgeneration,andthereforeoffallingpowersectoremissions.

Theglobalelectricitysectoristhefirstsectorthatneedstobedecarbonised,inparallelwithelectricitydemandrising,aselectrificationunlocksemissionscutsthroughouttheentireeconomy.The

IEANetZeroEmissions

scenariopointstoa2040netzeropowersector;tenyearsaheadofanetzeroeconomyin2050.Trackingtheelectricitytransition,therefore,iscriticaltoassessourclimate

progress.

Thedecarbonisationofthepowersectorisunderway,asrecordgrowthinwind

andsolardrovetheemissionsintensityoftheworld’selectricitytoitslowesteverlevelin2022.Itwillbeanimpressivemomentwhenpowersectoremissionsbegintofallyear-on-year,buttheworldisnotthereyet,andemissionsneedtobefallingfast.

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Electricityatitscleanest,aswindandsolargenerate12%ofglobalpower

Thecarbonintensityofglobalelectricitygenerationfelltoarecordlowof436gCO2/kWhin2022,thecleanest-everelectricity.This

wasduetorecordgrowthinwindandsolar,whichreacheda12%

10

02

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shareintheglobalelectricitymix,upfrom10%in2021.Together,allcleanelectricitysources(renewablesandnuclear)reached39%

ofglobalelectricity,anewrecordhigh.Solargenerationroseby

24%,makingitthefastest-growingelectricitysourcefor18years

inarow;windgenerationgrewby17%.Theincreaseinglobalsolargenerationin2022couldhavemettheannualelectricitydemandofSouthAfrica,andtheriseinwindgenerationcouldhavepowered

almostalloftheUK.Oversixtycountriesnowgeneratemorethan10%oftheirelectricityfromwindandsolar.However,othersourcesofcleanelectricitydroppedforthefirsttimesince2011duetoafallinnuclearoutputandfewernewnuclearandhydroplantscomingonline.

Limitedcoalincrease,gasplateaus

Powersectoremissionsrosein2022(+1.3%),reachinganall-time

high.Electricityiscleanerthanever,butweareusingmoreofit.Coalgenerationincreasedby1.1%,inlinewithaveragegrowthinthelastdecade.The‘coalpowerphasedown’agreedatCOP26in2021maynothavebegunin2022,butalsotheenergycrisisdidn’tleadtoa

majorincreaseincoalburnasmanyfeared.Gaspowergeneration

fellmarginally(-0.2%)in2022–forthesecondtimeinthreeyears–

inthewakeofhighgaspricesglobally.Gas-to-coalswitchingwas

limitedin2022becausegaswasalreadymostlymoreexpensive

thancoalin2021.Only31GWofnewgaspowerplantswerebuiltin2022,thelowestin18years.But2022sawthelowestnumberofcoalplantclosuresinsevenyears,ascountrieslooktomaintainback-upcapacity,evenasthetransitionpicksupspeed.

2022maybe“peak”poweremissions

Windandsolarareslowingtheriseinpowersectoremissions.

Ifalltheelectricityfromwindandsolarinsteadcamefromfossil

generation,powersectoremissionswouldhavebeen20%higherin2022.Thegrowthaloneinwindandsolargeneration(+557TWh)met

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80%ofglobalelectricitydemandgrowthin2022(+694TWh).Cleanpowergrowthislikelytoexceedelectricitydemandgrowthin2023;thiswouldbethefirstyearforthistohappenoutsideofarecession.Withaveragegrowthinelectricitydemandandcleanpower,we

forecastthat2023willseeasmallfallinfossilgeneration(-47TWh,-0.3%),withbiggerfallsinsubsequentyearsaswindandsolargrowfurther.Thatwouldmean2022hit“peak”emissions.Aneweraof

fallingpowersectoremissionsisclose.

2022willberememberedasaturningpointintheworld’stransitiontocleanpower.Russia’sinvasionofUkrainemademanygovernmentsrethinktheirplansamid

spikingfossilfuelpricesandsecurityconcernsaboutrelyingonfossilfuelimports.Italsoacceleratedelectrification:moreheatpumps,moreelectricvehicles,more

electrolysers.Thesewilldrivereductionsinemissionsforothersectors,andwillputmorepressuretobuildcleanpowermorequickly.

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Aneweraoffallingpowersectoremissionsisveryclose,thankstotheelectricitysuperpowersofwindandsolar.Windandsolarwillneedtomaintainhighgrowth

ratesthisdecade,evenastheymature.Moregrowthisneededfromallothercleanelectricitysources,whilemoreattentiontoefficiencyisneededtoavoidrunawaygrowthinelectricitydemand.Urgentworkisneededonensuringwindandsolar

canbeintegratedintothegrid:planningpermissions,gridconnections,gridflexibilityandmarketdesign.

Fallingfossilgenerationmeansnotonlythatthecoalpowerphasedownwill

happen,butalsothat–forthefirsttime–agaspowerphasedownisnowwithinreach.However,justhowquicklypowersectoremissionswillfallisnotyetset.

“Inthisdecisivedecadefortheclimate,itisthebeginningoftheendofthefossilage.Weareenteringthecleanpowerera.Thestageissetforwindandsolartoachieve

ameteoricrisetothetop.Cleanelectricitywillreshapetheglobaleconomy,from

transporttoindustryandbeyond.Aneweraoffallingfossilemissionsmeansthe

coalpowerphasedownwillhappen,andtheendofgaspowergrowthisnowwithin

sight.Changeiscomingfast.However,italldependsontheactionstakennowby

governments,businessesandcitizenstoputtheworldonapathwaytocleanpowerby2040.”

MalgorzataWiatros-Motyka

SeniorElectricityAnalyst,Ember

Chapter1|Pathwayfor1.5C

Achievingcleanelectricityworldwideby2040

TheglobalelectricitysectoristhebiggestCO2emitterandthe

firstsectorthatneedstobedecarbonisedfortheworldtoachievenetzero,asithelpsunlockcleanelectrificationofothersectors.Tounderstandprogressonclimategoals,wemustalsocloselytracktheelectricitytransition.

Firstsectortohitnetzero

Theelectricitysectorneedstomovefrombeingthehighestemittingsectorto

beingthe

firstsectortoreachnetzero

emissionsgloballyby2040sotheworldhasachancetoachieveeconomy-widenetzeroby2050.

ElectricitygenerationisthesinglebiggestcontributortoglobalCO2emissions,

responsible

foroverathirdofworld’stotalenergyrelatedemissionsin2021.Asof2021,aboutthree-quartersofpowersectoremissionswerefromcoal,andalmostaquarterfromgas.Withprovensolutionsalreadyavailabletotacklethischallenge,decarbonisingthepowersectoroffersoneofthemostcost-effectiveroutesto

achievingrapidemissionsreductions.

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AParisAgreement-compatiblepathwayfortheglobalpowersectorwassetoutindetailbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)inits‘NetZeroEmissions’(NZE)scenariopublishedinMay2021inthepioneeringreport

NetZeroby2050

.Itwasthenupdatedinthe

WorldEnergyOutlook

reportin2022,whereNZEisnowa

centralscenario.Wereferencethisscenariothroughoutthisreportasarealisticpathwaytoputtheglobalpowersectorontrackfor1.5degrees.

Althoughtherearemanypossiblewaysthepowersectorcouldreduceemissionsinlinewitha1.5degreetrajectory,theIEANZEscenarioiswellrespectedby

industrystakeholders,providesdetailedbenchmarksandisalsolargelyinlinewiththe

IPCCscenarioforpowersectordecarbonisation

.

Acrossallmodels,windandsolararesettoleadthisshift,offeringlowcostand

quick-to-delivercleancapacity.The

IPCCshowedthat

windandsolarcandeliveroverathirdoftheemissionscutsrequiredthisdecade,andhalfofthoseemissionsreductionswouldactuallysavemoneycomparedtothereferencescenario.In

manycountrieswindandsolararealsoeconomicallyattractive:lowercostthanfossilfuels,andwithoutthepotentialenergysecurityrisksofdependenceontheglobalfossilfuelmarket.

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Milestonesfora2040globalnetzeropowersector

TheIEANZEscenarioshowsaclearroutetoanetzeroglobalpowersectorby

2040,andby2035forOECDcountries.Thepathwayrequiresamassiveexpansionofcleanpowergeneration,requiringmultipletechnologies.IntheIEAmodelling,

windandsolararevitallinchpins,providing75%oftheincreaseincleanpower

fromnowto2050.Interconnections,networks,demand-sidemanagementand

storagewillallplayavitalrolealongsidethisdeploymentofcleanpower,andtheywillallneedtoexpandtosupporttheenergytransition.

By2030,windandsolarneedtohaveincreasedto41%ofglobalelectricity

generation,upfrom10%in2021.Coalgenerationneedstofallby54%andgas

generationby24%.Atthesametime,electricitydemandwillrisedramatically,byanaverageof3.7%peryearfrom2021to2030,aselectrificationpicksuppace.

Whiletheshapeofthepathaheadisbroadlyclear,itisinterestingtonotethe

adjustmentsmadebytheIEA

whenupdatingtheNZEscenariofrom2021to2022

.Thescenarioremainslargelythesameexceptforamuchlargerforecastedfallingaspowerfrom2021to2030(previously5%,now24%),andasmallerfallincoalpower(previously71%fall,nowa54%fall).Thischangelikelyreflectstheslower

progressin2022oncoalphaseout,butalsoanewfoundpossibilitythatgaspowercouldbeginitsphasedownthisdecade.Regardless,eitherversionreflectsthe

needforrapiddeclinesinallfossilfuelpower.

By2040,thepowersectorneedstobenetzero:toachievethisunabatedcoal

powermustbephasedoutglobally,andunabatedgaswillonlyprovideonly0.3%ofglobalelectricity.

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Expandingroleofelectricityonthepathtonetzero

Investmentincleanelectricitywillensurethemostcosteffectivepathtoachievenetzero,notonlyinthepowersector,buttheentireenergysystem.

Fordevelopingcountries,investmentincleansourceswillplayacrucialrolein

meetingrisingelectricitydemand,whichisexpandingastheworld’spopulation

growsandcountriesincreasestandardsofliving.Globally,

oneintenpeople

still

donothaveaccesstoelectricity,mostlyacrossSub-SaharanAfricaandAsia.

Leapfroggingfossilfuelsandmovingdirectlytocleanpowerwillprovidemultiplebenefitstohealth,theeconomyandclimate,whileincreasingaccesstoaffordableenergyasrecommendedbytheUnitedNationsinSustainableDevelopmentGoal7(

SDG7

).

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Butit’snotonlydevelopingcountrieswhereelectricitydemandwillexpandand

cleaninvestmentneedstokeeppace.Electricityunderpinsthedecarbonisation

ofothersectors,ascleanelectricityreplacesfossilfuelcombustionintransport,

heating,coolingandindustry.In2022,electricityaccountedfor20%ofworld’sfinalenergyconsumption.By2030,it

ispredicted

toaccountfor27%.

2022wastheyearinwhich

electriccars

,

heatpumps

and

electrolysers

(toproducegreenhydrogen)werepushedintothenextlevelofgrowth.Thistrendisexpectedtocontinue,buttodeliveronnecessaryemissionsreductionsitmustbematchedbyinvestmentincleanelectricitytofeedintotheexpandingelectrifiedeconomy.

Chapter2|ElectricityTransitionin2022

Electricityisatitscleanestaswindandsolarhit12%

2022beat2020asthecleanesteveryear,asemissionsintensityreachedarecordlowof436gCO2/kWh.Windandsolarreachedarecord12%ofglobalelectricitygeneration,buttheystillweren’tbuiltfastenoughtomeetalloftheworld’sincreasingneedfor

electricity.Consequently,coalandotherfossilsmettheremaininggap,drivingupemissionstoanewrecordhigh.

Windandsolarhelpreduceemissionsintensityofelectricity

Recordgrowthinwindandsolarpushedelectricitytoitscleanestlevelever:436gCO2/kWh.Solaraddedarecord245TWhofgenerationin2022,whilewind

addedarecord312TWh.Asaresult,12%oftheworld’selectricitycamefromsolarandwind.That’supfromatenthofglobalelectricitygenerationin2021,

whichinitselfwasupfromjust5%whentheParisAgreementwassignedin2015.Combined,solarandwindovertooknucleargenerationin2021andarecatchingupwithhydrogeneration.Oversixtycountriesnowgeneratemorethan10%oftheirelectricityfromwindandsolar.

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ThefirstfallinothercleanelectricitysinceFukushima

In2022,cleanelectricitysources–excludingsolarandwind–sawtheirfirstyear-on-yearfallingenerationsincetheFukushimanucleardisasterin2011.Thiswas

primarilybecausenucleargenerationfellby129TWh(-5%)asFrance’snuclear

fleetsufferedmajoroutagesandGermanyandBelgiumclosedsomereactors.Inaddition,growthinglobalhydropowerwasheldbackinregionsthatexperiencedextremedroughts,notablyintheEUwheregenerationfellby66TWhtoitslowestlevelsinceatleast1990.

Demandincreased

Globalelectricitydemandgrewby2.5%(+694TWh)in2022,similartotheaveragegrowthof2.6%inthepreviousdecade(2010-2021).Muchoflastyear’sincrease

wasdrivenbydemandincreasesinmajoreconomies,andthreeofthemalone

accountedfor93%oftheglobaldemandgrowth:China(54%),theUS(21%),

andIndia(18%).Incontrast,electricitydemandfellby3%intheEUduetoa

combinationofmildweatherandeffortstoreduceconsumptioninthefaceof

affordabilitypressuresandsecurityofsupplyconcerns(seechapter6fordetails).

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Windandsolarmetthemajorityofdemandgrowth

In2022growthinwindandsolarmet80%oftheincreaseinelectricitydemand,whileallrenewablestogethermet92%oftherise.InChina,windandsolarmet

69%ofthegrowthinelectricitydemandin2022,whileallcleansourcesmet77%.InIndia,windandsolarmet23%ofthedemandgrowth,whileallcleansources

provided38%.IntheUS,windandsolarmet68%ofthedemandgrowth.

Coalincreasedtomeettheshortfall

Coalandotherfossilfuels(mainlyoil)increasedtomeettheremainderoftheriseinelectricitydemand,aswellshortfallsfromnuclearandgasgeneration.Coalroseby108TWh(+1.1%)yearonyear,reachingarecordhighgenerationof10,186TWh.Otherfossilgenerationroseby86TWh(+11%).

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Trendsamongcountriesandregionsvariedsignificantly:coalfellintheUS(-70TWh,-7.8%)in2022comparedtotheyearbefore,butroseinChina(+81TWh,+1.5%),India(+92TWh,+7.2%),Japan(+9.7TWh,+3.1%),andintheEU(+27TWh,+6.4%).

Coalpower’sincreaseof1.1%isinlinewithaveragegrowthinthelastdecade.Onemighthaveexpectedalargerriseincoalgenerationin2022,giventhepricespikesingasandsecurityofsupplyconcerns.Butatagloballevel,therewasactually

asmuchswitchingfromcoaltogas,astherewasswitchingfromgasintocoal.

Thatisinpartbecausegaspriceswerealreadyhigherthancoalbefore2022,so

muchoftheswitchingintocoalhadalreadyhappenedtheyearbefore.Itisalso

inpartbecauseoftheUS,wherethreemajorfactors–coalplantretirements,coal

transportdisruptionandnewgaspowerplantcapacity–ledtoasubstantialswitchfromcoaltogasgeneration,asgaspricesstayedmuchlowerthanintherestoftheworld.

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Gasplateaued

Globalgasgenerationdeclinedslightlyby0.2%(-12TWh)in2022comparedto

thepreviousyear.Itmighthavebeenexpectedthathigh,volatilegaspriceswouldcauseabiggerfallingas,howevertheenergycrisisdidnotleadtolarge-scale

gas-to-coalswitching(asdescribedabove).

However,atanationallevel,somecountriesstillsawincreasesingasgeneration.Forexample,gasgenerationroseintheUS(+7.3%),whereitisreplacingcoal.Butgasgenerationfellinmostothercountries,includingBrazil(-46%)andTürkiye

(-32%)duetogoodhydrogeneration,andinIndia(-22%)duetohighgasprices.

Otherfossilfuels–mainlyoil–increasedby86TWh,wherethereweresome

instancesofgas-to-oilswitching(althoughthisdatapointisalittletentative,

becauseofpoorreportingbyMiddleEasterncountrieswhichhavethemajorityofoilgeneration).

Emissionsreachedarecordhigh

Overall,fossilgenerationroseby183TWh(+1.1%)in2022,settinganewrecord.Asaresult,powersectorCO2emissionsroseby160milliontonnes(+1.3%)reachingarecordhighof12,431mtCO2.Emissionsintensityisheadingintherightdirection,butabsoluteemissionsarenotyetfalling.Thismeansthatthepowersectoris

notyetseeingtheemissionscutsneededfornetzero,asemissionsshouldbe

fallingbyanaverage7.6%annuallythisdecade,asperthe

IEANetZeroEmissions

scenario.

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24

2022wasanacceleratoryearforthetransitiontorenewables

Russia’sinvasionofUkraineandtheglobalenergycrisisin2022maywellbe

rememberedasaturningpointthatmademanygovernmentsrethinktheirrelianceonfossilfuels.Energysecurityconcernsandnewpoliciesledto

thelargestever

upwardrevision

ofIEA’srenewablepowerforecastin2022.

TheEU’s

REPowerEUplan

wasdevelopedtorapidlyreducerelianceonfossil

fuelimportsfromRussia,largelybygrowingtheuseofrenewableelectricity

andimprovingenergyefficiency.IntheUS,theInflationReductionActthatwas

introducedinAugust2022,directsnearly$370billionofgovernmentfundingtocleanenergy,withthegoalofsubstantiallyloweringthenation’scarbonemissionsbytheendofthisdecade.Othermajoreconomiescontinuedtoroll-outexistingpolicies,likeChina’s

14thFive-YearPlan

andnew

marketreforms

.

Additionally,

investment

incleanenergytechnologiesmatchedthatoffossilfuelsforthefirsttimein2022.Developingeconomieslike

Indonesia

and

VietNam

securedcommitmentsforinternationalfundingin2022fromhistorichighemittersliketheUK,US,andEUtosupportthemindisplacingcoalwithrenewablesand

hencedecouplingtheireconomicgrowthfromemissions.

Theenergycrisisprovidesaclearmotiveforlow-carbonenergytransitions:theneedforgreaterenergydiversification,reducedrelianceonfossilfuels,andanaccelerationofrenewableenergy.However,thecrisisalsoriskslockinginsomefossil

infrastructure

,withsomecountriessecuringlongtermcontractsforgas.

While2022maybeseenastheturningpoint,theimpactsofthepolicy

de