2024年嬰兒產(chǎn)業(yè)的趨勢和洞察報(bào)告（英文版）-Circana

CIRCANAINSPIRE

WhatAbout

Baby?

TrendsandInsightsintheBabyIndustry

December2024

Copyright2024Circana,LLC(“Circana”).Allrightsreserved.Circana,theCircanalogo,andthenamesofCircanaproductsandservicesaretrademarksofCircana.Allothertrademarksarethepropertyoftheirrespectiveowners.

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

BabyIndustryTrends&Insights

Influencedbyeconomic,culturalanddemographicchanges,theU.S.babyindustryisundergoingsignificantchanges.Despitesomegainsinfertilityinrecentyears,dollargainsacrossbaby

categorieshavebeendrivenbyprice,asunitsalesareflatordeclining.ThisreportprovidesacomprehensiveanalysisofthecurrenttrendsandfutureoutlookforthebabymarketintheU.S.

BABYTRENDS

?Whiletherehavebeenpositivesignsinrecentyears,birthrateshavebeenindeclineduetoeconomicchallenges,

changingfamilydynamics,theimpactofCOVID-19and,morerecently,financialinsecurity,culturalshiftstowardindividualautonomyandafocusoncareers.

?Still,therearepocketsoftheU.S.wherebirthratesarehigher,includingAlaska,theMidwestandSouthregions.

?In2023,thehighestpercentageofwomengivingbirthwereages30-34,followedcloselybythoseages25-29,astarkdifferencefrom2005,whenwomenages20-29hadhigherfertilityrates.

?Despitedecliningdollarandunitsalesacrossmostbabycategories,diapersandformulacontinuetodominatesales.Innovativeproducts,suchastheOwletDreamSockbabymonitor,havedrivengrowthinspecificsegments.

?Theconvenienceofe-commercehasledtoasignificantshiftinbabyproductpurchasesonline.Deliveryhasbecomethepreferredfulfillmentmethod,withfrequentpurchaseslikediapersandwipesincreasinglybeingboughtonline.

OPPORTUNITIES

?Whilemainstreamproductsareagrowthopportunity,therearepocketsofopportunitytopromotepremium.Marketersshouldshowcasequalityingredients.

?Increasingly,babyfoodflavorsaregaininginsophistication.Keepinmindthebuyersofbabyproductsandpositionproductsasbaby-formulatedversionsofpopularandtrendingflavors.

?Withe-commercegrowing,investinonlinemarketingtoshowcasebabysolutionsacrossthestore,fromfoodtosleep,playtobath.

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SECTION01

BabyBuzz

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AnumberoffactorsarecontributingtoadeclineinU.S.birthrates

EconomicChallenges

Manyeconomieswerehithardbythepandemic,leadingtofinancialinsecurity.AccordingtotheInternationalMonetaryFund,joblosses,increasedcostoflivingandeconomic

uncertaintydiscouragedmanycouplesfromhavingchildren.

COVID-19Pandemic

Thepandemicbroughtuncertainty,whichinfluencedmanypeopletodelayoravoidhavingchildren.Concernsoverhealth,accesstohealthcare,financialstabilityandageneral

senseofinsecurityledtolowerbirthratesduringthistimeaspertheBrookingsInstitution.

ChangingFamilyDynamics

Culturalchangeshavealsoimpacteddecisionsaroundchildbirth.Increasingparticipationofwomenintheworkforce,changingattitudestowardmarriageandfamilyformation,andincreasedemphasisonindividualautonomyhaveresultedinfewerbirths.

IncreasedCostofLiving

Therisingcostofliving,includinghealthcare,educationandhousing,hasmademanycouplesreconsiderordelaystartingafamily.

2024(fore.)

12.009

2021

12.001

2020

11.990

2019

11.979

2018

11.968

5YearswiththeLowestBirthRates(per1,000people)

YearBirthRates

Source:/us-birth-rate-over-century/

Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse4

Fertilityratesareup

slightlyin2023and2024

Birthsperwomanareupslightly,whilethenumberofwomengivingbirthisdown.

The2024U.S.fertilityrateis1.786birthsperwoman,an

increaseof0.11%from2023.TheU.S.2023fertilityratewas1.784birthsperwoman,a0.11%increasefrom

2022.ThefertilityratefortheU.S.in2022was1.782birthsperwoman,a0.06%increasefrom2021.

In2022,therewerenearly3.7millionbabiesbornintheU.S.,downslightlyfrom2021.Thegeneralfertilityrate(numberofbirthsper1,000womenages15-44)alsodeclinedfrom56.3to56.1.Morewomenarewaitingtohavekidsduetofinancialinsecurityandfocusingon

careers.

5

Source:

/u-s-birth-rate/

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MidwestandSouthregionsdemonstratedhigherbirthrates,whereastheNortheastregionhasexperiencedadecline

U.S.BirthRatebyStatein2024

Highertolowerbirthrates(per1,000people)

Utahtoppedthechartforthehighestbirthrate(14.9)intheU.S.,followedbyNorthDakota(14.0)andAlaska(13.7).

Witharateof8.7,VermontregisteredthelowestbirthrateintheU.S.

Themajorityofthestatesliewithintherangeof11.0-13.2indicatingamoderatebirthrate.Despiteitsvastpopulation,Californiahasabirthrateof11.5,inthemiddleofthelist.

Thebirthrateinseveralstatesinthe

12.2

13.2

10.8

12.0

11.0

11.0

11.4

8.79.2

14.0

11.6

10.0

10.1

13.5

10.6

9.7

12.0

11.4

11.4

11.6

13.2

12.511.311.0

11.8

11.8

12.210.1

11.412.0

11.7

14.9

11.0

12.1

11.5

11.5

12.6

12.3

12.412.8

11.9

11.1

Northeast,includingNewHampshire(8.8),Maine(9.2)andConnecticut(9.7),waslessthan10,highlightingthelowernatureofbirthratesinthisregion.

12.0

11.8

10.4

11.9

Circana,LLCForpublicuse6

Source:

/ranking/birth-rate-by-state

|

Womenages25-34havethehighest

fertilityrates,vs.2005,whenwomenages20-29hadhigherfertilityrates

In2005,thebirth

ratewashighestfor

womenages25-29

(116.5birthsper

1,000women)

Americanwomenarehavingchildrenlaterinlife.

In2023,womenages30-34tookthelead(95.1)

Birthsper1,000WomenbyAgeGroup,2005and2023Age

39.7

13.2

15-19

101.8

55.4

From2005to2023,

birthratesdropped

forwomenages34

andyoungerand

increasedamongthose

ages35andup

20-24

116.5

91.0

25-29

96.795.1

30-34

46.4

54.7

35-39

9.1

2023

2005

12.6

40-44

Source:

/articles/how-have-us-fertility-and-birth-rates-changed-over-time/

;2023dataisprovisional.CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention

7

Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse

Birthsbyraceand

Hispanicoriginalsovary

Culturalattitudesaboutfamilysize,immigrationpatternsandaccesstohealthcareimpact2022birthrates

?NativeAmericanwomenhad3%fewerbabiesin2022,showingthehealthdisparitiesthesecommunitiesface.

?Asianwomenhada2%rise,maybeduetohighereducationandincomelevels.

?Blackwomenhada1%decline.

?PacificIslanderwomensawa6%increase.

?Whitewomenhad3%fewerbirths.

?Hispanicwomenhad6%morebabies.

Source:

/u-s-birth-rate/

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Householdswithkidsages0-5,AsianandHispaniccohortsaregrowing

nearly2.5timesthantotalHHs

HouseholdswithKidsAges0-5OnlyBasedonRace

Race|AgeofChildren0-5|L52WksNov.3,2024

HouseholdswithKidsAges0-5Only%Changevs.2YA

HHwithKidsAges0-5

White

AfricanAmerican

AsianAcculturatedHispanic

+18.6%+11.6%

+17.0%

+49.0%+52.1%

ShopperswithKidsAges0-5Only

HouseholdsDistribution

Race

HHswithKidsAges0-5

8.7M

100.0

White

6.0M

69.1

AfricanAmerican

1.0M

11.3

Asian

1.0M

11.1

AcculturatedHispanic

1.6M

18.2

Source:CircanaOmniConsumerTMScanPanel,AllOutlets,L52wksendingNovember3,2024,vs.2YA,NBDaligned.

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SECTION02

CompleteBaby

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Acrossthecompletestore,babyunderperformed

Comparedtototalretail,babydollarandunitsalesaredown1%and2%,respectively.

YoY

Unit%Change

YoY$%Change

YTDSeptember2024vs.PriorYear

4%

4%3%

Health&Wellness1%

BeautyIncl.Appliances-1%

PetCare2%

3%2%

FreshFood1%

Food&Beverage0%

1%

Auto&Tires0%

1%

Home&HouseholdEssentials0%

Baby-2%-1%

-2%

-2%

TotalRetail%Change

+1%flat

DollarsUnits

Tobacco-6%

Fashion-3%

-2%

Tech-3%

-4%

SportsEquipment-1%

-5%

-7%

Office&SchoolSupplies-1%

Entertainment-2%

Source:CircanaCompleteStore,thoughtleadershiphierarchy

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Groceryaccountsfornearly60%ofthetotaldollarpurchasesforbaby

BabyGeneralMerchandise

41%dollarmix

-6%$%changevs.LY--U%changevs.LY

Demandforbabygroceryisdown5%vs.lastyear,andbabygeneralmerchandiseisflattolastyear,butpricedeclinesleadtodollardeclines.

BabyGrocery

59%dollarmix2%$%changevs.LY-5%U%changevs.LY

Source:CircanaCompleteStore,thoughtleadershiphierarchy;January-September2024

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ofdollars

spentonbabyarerepresentedbytwenty

categories

Diapersandformulaarethelargestcategories,makingup33%ofbabyannualdollarsales.

DisposableDiaperBabyFormula-PowderBabyWipes

Travel BabyFood/SnacksDisposableTrainingPants Infants/ToddlersToysFeeding

KnitShirts

Sleepwear

BedBath

Furniture

Pants

SafetyRTDBabyElectrolytesRTDBabyFormula

DressesMobilityFurnitureEntertainment

Shorts

DOLLARMIX

6%5%

4%

3%3%2%

2%2%2%

2%

1%1%1%1%1%

18%

15%

7%7%

7%

Source:CircanaCompleteStore,thoughtleadershiphierarchy12MESeptember2024;bardataisrounded,sonuancesinactualpercentagesaredepictedbysizeofbar.

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What’sdrivinggrowthinbabycategories?

TopAbsoluteDollarGrowthCategories1

$%Chg.

0%5%10%15%

Saleswereup212%vs.

YAG.MSRPof$299is

largestdollariteminbabymonitors2,muchhigherthan#1brandVtech’s

totalASPof$58.

Notablegrowth

brandinbaby

monitors2

OwletDreamSockwithSensor

TopGrowthItem:OwletDreamSock

ReleaseDate:January2024

InnovativeFeatures:First-of-its-kind

FDA-clearedsmartbabymonitorthatallowscaregiverstoviewandtrackbaby’spulserate,oxygen,wakingsandsleeptrends.

Essentialsofformulaanddiapersaccountforthemajorityofspend,butbabymonitors,ledbyOwlet,drovethecategory.

Essentials

BabyFormula-Powder DisposableDiaperDisposableTrainingPants

Dresses SleepwearBabyMonitors

Source:1CircanaCompleteStore,thoughtleadershiphierarchyJanuary–September2024;2RetailTrackingService,technology

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Juvenileproductshaveagrowthspurtduringpromotionevents

Promotionweekstypicallymarkthelargestpeaksinsaleswithinthejuvenileindustry.Thisyear,Targetexpandeditsannualcarseattrade-inprogramtoincludeasecondeventthatoccurredbeforeOctober’spromotionweek.

GenMerchJuvenileWeeklyDollarVolumeTrend($B)1

WeekEndingJanuary7,2023,throughWeekEndingOctober5,2024

TargetCarSeatTrade-inEvent2,3September15toOctober12,2024

JulyPromotionWeek

2023

Target’sCarSeatTrade-in

OctoberPromotionWeek

2023

2023

2024

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2024

Target’sCarSeatTrade-inFall2024

Forthe12monthsendingSeptember,car

seatsaleswereup+1%vs.lastyear3

Source:1Circana,point-of-salefirst-readdata,limitedrelease(generalmerchandise);2Retailerwebsite;3CompleteStore,thoughtleadershiphierarchyJan.-Sept.2024

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SECTION03

CPGBabyStats

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WithinCPG,babycategoriesseeaslightuptickindollarsales,butunitsaleslag

●Dollar%Chg.Units%Chg.

TotalBabyCategories

1.2%

-3.0%

BabyFeeding/Care&Safety/Travel

Accessories

-1.8%

-2.0%

BabyFormula/Electrolytes

4.9%

-5.7%

BabyWipes

1.6%

-4.1%

BabyFood

-0.9%

-4.5%

BabyGift/Toys/Furniture

-4.0%

1.9%

Diapers

2.9%

0.7%

BabyNeeds

5.5%

-0.4%

Source:MULO+CwithConv–52weeksendingNov.3,2024

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Price/mixgrowthinbaby

categoriesexceedsoverallCPG

Greaterpremiumizationandbase-pricegrowthseeninbabycategories

DriversofRetailPrice/MixGrowth

BabyFood

Totalprice/mix2021-2024

TotalCPG20%

?Predominantlybasepricechangesdrivepricesacrossthe3years

?2022alsoimpactedbyassortment

?2023and2024alsoimpactedbyassortmentandlessbypromotions

34%

?2022mostlydrivenbybasepricechange

?2023baseprice,assortmentandproductmix

?2024pricechangedriven

predominantlybymixandbaseprice

26%

changeledby

?2022pricebaseprice

?2023baselessmix

?2024basewithfewer

BabyCare

andmixchanges

priceandassortment,

priceandassortment,promotions

Note:TotalCPGexcludestobacco.Babyfoodincludesbabyfoodandformula.Babycareincludesdiapers,wipes,andbabyneeds(shampoo,etc.).BasedonUPC-levelanalysis.Impactonaveragepriceper volumewhenholdingothervariablesconstant.Promotionindicatesimpactonaveragepricepervolumeduetochangeinpromotionaldepthandfrequency.Productassortmentincludesimpactonaveragepricepervolumeduetochangetoassortment(new-removeditems)andProductMixincludessalesshiftinexistingitems.Analysisdoneatacategorylevelthendollarweightedup.2024basedonYTDendingNov.3,2024.Source:CircanaPOSdata,totalRetailMULO+(expandeduniverse)withConveniencechannel.CircanaExecutiveCPG&FoodserviceAdvisory.

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Basepriceisthecoredriver

acrosstotalCPGbabycategories

Greaterpremiumizationandbasepricegrowthinbabycategories

ChangeinAveragePrice/VolumeDuetoChangein:

BasePricePromotion(depth,freq.)ProductAss’tProductMix

DriversofRetailPrice/MixGrowth

Totalprice/mix2021-2024

TotalCPG20%

0.9

10.9

6.1

10.5

0.7

1.5

1.0

1.7

6.3

-0.5

-0.4

-0.1

-0.5

-0.8

202220232024

34%

BabyFood

16.0

8.3

6.3

0.14.8

3.7

4.2

8.3

0.11.86.4

3.9

-0.2

-0.5

-2.0

202220232024

26%

BabyCare

10.8

10.3

4.5

5.0

3.2

0.0

-1.2

-0.7

-3.2

-0.7

-0.3

7.88.4

2.4

2.3

202220232024

Note:TotalCPGexcludestobacco.Babyfoodincludesbabyfoodandformula.Babycareincludesdiapers,wipesandbabyneeds(shampoo,etc.).BasedonUPC-levelanalysis.Impactonaveragepriceper volumewhenholdingothervariablesconstant.Promotionindicatesimpactonaveragepricepervolumeduetochangeinpromotionaldepthandfrequency.Productassortmentincludesimpactonaveragepricepervolumeduetochangetoassortment(new-removeditems)andproductmixincludessalesshiftinexistingitems.Analysisdoneatacategorylevelthendollarweightedup.2024basedonYTDendingNov.3,2024.Source:CircanaPOSdata,totalRetailMULO+(expandeduniverse)withConveniencechannel.CircanaExecutiveCPG&FoodserviceAdvisory.

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Evenwithsomeshiftstopremium,there’sstillmorebabygrowthinmainstreamproducts

Care

VolumeShareShiftsacrossBrandPriceTiers/L52WE11.3.2024

TotalCPGBabyFoodBaby

PriceTier

SuperPremium

%ofVolumeSales

SharePpt.Chg.Vs.YA

%ofVolumeSales

SharePpt.Chg.Vs.YA

%ofVolumeSales

SharePpt.Chg.Vs.YA

7%

0.2

5%

0.6

3%

0.1

Premium

6%

0.1

6%

-0.8

7%

0.4

Mainstream

45%

-0.4

62%

1.7

49%

0.5

Value

16%

-0.3

14%

-1.1

8%

-0.8

PrivateLabel

26%

0.5

13%

-0.4

34%

-0.2

Note:Pricetiersdeterminedbylineextensionavg.pricepervolumevs.correspondingsubcategoryavg.pricepervolume.SuperPremium>1.5*avg,Premium>1.25*avg,Value<0.75*avgbasedonMULO.PrivateLabelincludesallstorebrandsacrosspricetiers.Dollar-weightedaveragevolumeshareacrosscategories.Source:CircanaPOSdataendingNov.3,2024,MULO+(expandeduniverse)withConveniencechannel.CircanaExecutiveCPG&FoodserviceAdvisory.

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Mass,clubande-commercechannelsdominatebaby

productgrowthYTD

ChannelContributiontoU.S.CPGDollarSalesGrowth–2024YTD

BabyProducts

%ofSales%ContributiontoMarket$GrowthFairShare

TotalCPG(ExcludingTobacco)

%ofSales%ContributiontoMarket$GrowthFairShare

Grocery

40%

21

53

21%

-11

-53

Mass&Club

36%

51

139

59%

98

166

SmallFormat

16%

2

-10

11%

20

-187

PurePlayE-commerce

8%

30

379

9%

34

358

Note:Pricetiersdeterminedbylineextensionavg.pricepervolumevs.correspondingsubcategoryavg.pricepervolume.SuperPremium>1.5*avg,Premium>1.25*avg,Value<0.75*avgbasedonMULO.PrivateLabelincludesallstorebrandsacrosspricetiers.Dollar-weightedaveragevolumeshareacrosscategories.Source:CircanaPOSdataendingNov.3,2024,MULO+(expandeduniverse)withConveniencechannel.CircanaExecutiveCPG&FoodserviceAdvisory.

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Manybabyproductsarefrequentlyreplenished,makinge-commerceaconvenientchoice

Brick-and-mortarstoresholdahighershareofCPGbabycategorysales,bute-commerceholdsahealthyshareandisshowingstronggrowth.

DollarShare

SharePtChange

Dollar%Change

Units%Change

UnitShare

.

SharePt.Change

TotalBabyCategories

1.2%

-3.0%

Brick-and-

MortarStores

0.5%

-4.3%

69.5

-0.5

81.4

-1.1

E-Commerce

2.8%

3.2%

30.5

0.5

18.6

1.1

Source:CircanaOmnichannel–52WeeksendingNov.3,2024

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Diapers,babyfeeding/care/travelaccountforthemajorityofe-commbabysales

Increasingly,frequentpurchasesforbaby,includingformula,diapersandwipes,areshiftingtoonline.

TotalBabyCategories

BabyFormula/Electrolytes

BabyFood

DiapersBabyFeeding/

Care&Safety/

TravelAcc.

BabyWipes

BabyGift/

Toys/Furniture

BabyNeeds

DollarShare

100

8

3

20%

51%

7%

8%

3

Dollar%Change

2.8%

9.1

7.2

7.7%

-1.0%

10.5%

-3.0%

19.6%

UnitsB%Change

3.3%

3.3

-0.7

4.8%

1.8

6.4%

5.9%

13.5%

Source:CircanaE-commerce=B&Me-comm+PurePlaye-comm//Latest52WeeksEndingNov.3,2024.

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Withincreasesinonline

purchases,deliveryisthe

fulfillmentmethodofchoice

Pickup,whileapopularmethodduringthepandemic,isslowinginpopularity.

Dollar%Change

Units%Change

DollarShare

SharePt.Change

UnitShare

SharePt.Change

Delivery

9.3%

9.4%

66.5

2.2

59.3

4.2

Pickup

-1.0%

-7.9%

33.5

-2.2

40.7

-4.2

Sourc:CircanaE-commerce=B&Me-comm+PurePlaye-comm//Latest52WeekPdEndingNov.3,2024.

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Thebabybump

Aslightuptickinfertilityin2022and2023bringsbabyproductsbacktoCircana’sNewProductPacesetters

?Nutrient-dense

?Non-GMO,plant-based,organic

?Convenience

?Earlylifestage

?Uniquetechnologies

Source:

Circana’s2024NewProductPacesetters

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Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse

PacesetterInnovation:

GerberSoothe‘n’Chew

?First-of-its-kind,long-lastingedibleteether

?Non-GMO,madewithwholesomegrainsand

Solutionsforeachstageofdevelopment

SerenityKids

?Fromfarmtohighchair

?Grain-,rice-andgluten-free

?High-qualitysourcinganddiverseflavors

realfruit

withaninternationalflair:ChickenTikka

Masala,CoconutCurrywithChicken,

ChickenMexicanStewandBeefChimichurri

RippleKidsPlant-BasedMilk

?Plantmilkswithproteinandcalciumforkids’growingbodies

?Omega-3forbraindevelopmentandprebioticsfor“happytummies”

?Regularandunsweetenedvarietieslinktogrowingconsumerpreference

Source:

Circana’s2024NewProductPacesetters

Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse26

Better-for-youandcleanlabelsaregrowingbabyfoodattributes

BabyFood–DollarSalesand%Changevs.YADollarSales%Changevs.YA

AllNaturalIngredients

Probiotics/Prebiotics

Non-Dairy

DigestionClaims

USDAOrganic

HighFiber

HighProtein

Antioxidants

$267M

+3.3%

$65.8M

+7.3%

$26.3M

+9.9%

$32M

+7.2%

$14.1M

+40.1%

$9.4M

+30.6%

$5.7M

+3.0%

$4.8M

+8.8%

Source:CircanaUnify,IntegratedFresh,Health&WellnessClaims,MULO+withC,52weeksendingNov.3,2024.

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Manygrowingbabyfoodflavorshaveadultappeal

DollarSales%Changevs.YA

WholeWheat/Grain

$11.1M|+21.5%

PeanutButter

$11M|+11.5%

StrawberryBanana

$5.3M|+371.8%

MixedBerries

$5M|+43.5%

Salmon

$4M|+62%

Beet

$3M|+204%

PumpkinCinnamonwithOliveOil

$2.3M|+59.4%

BeetCarrot

withOliveOil

$1.8M+14.2%

Source:CircanaMULO.52WENov.3,2024.

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Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse

What’snextforbaby?

CleanLabelandHealthAttributes

Productsemphasizinghealthandwellness,suchasall-natural,

lactose-free,vegan,USDAorganicandthosewithno

preservativesorartificialsweetenerscontinuetoperformwellinbabyfoodcategories.Thesetrendsalignwithconsumer

demandfortransparencyandfunctionalbenefitsacrosstotalfoodandbeverage.diapers,wipes,formulaandfood.

FlavorInnovation

Adventurousandnutrient-denseflavors,suchaswhole

wheat/grain,peanutbutter,strawberryb