埃森哲：2023年消費者報告

Thenextbillionconsumers

Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce

Vicesfchange

Frominsightstoaction,thepathtoextraordinaryvaluestartshere.accenture

Anewgenerationofdigitalconsumerswillemerge

ineightcountriesoverthenext10years.

Willyourbrandwintheirhearts,mindsandwallets?

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce2

Yournew

bestcustomers

areaheadofyou

Morethanonebilliondigitallyastuteconsumerswillenterthemarketoverthenextdecadein

eightrapidlygrowingcountries:Bangladesh,

Egypt,Ethiopia,India,Indonesia,Kenya,NigeriaandthePhilippines.

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce3

Theseconsumerscouldbecome

yourcustomers.Rightnow,there’s

littletonodigitalcompetitionfortheirbusinessamongmost

consumer-facingcompanies.

Some40%oftheworld’s50largestconsumercompanieshavenopresencethere.Just22%arepresentinmorethantwo.Noneoperateinalleight.1

However,thereareconsiderablechallengestoattracting

andkeepingtheseconsumers.Operationalrisksarerelatively

high,evenfortraditionalcommercechannels.Digitalcommerceintroducesadditionalissues;forexample,last-miledeliveryremainsparticularlydifficult.

Thefactthatexistingdigitalconsumersexpectpurchasestoflow

inrhythmwiththeirlivespresentsahighbar.According

torecentAccentureresearch,companies’digitalinvestmentsintheseareastodatearealreadyfallingshortofconsumers’expectations.Trendsshowthatmostbusinesseswillnotbe

readytosatisfythem.

Butthesemarketscanopenapathtogrowthforcompanies

thatactfast.Thisreportexaminestheseemergingconsumersinmoredetail,aswellasthechallengestoservingthem.

Wealsoidentifyfourdriversofsuccess;focusingondevelopingthemcanhelpcompaniesdeliverhighlydifferentiated,deeply

digitalexperiencestowintheseconsumers’hearts,mindsandwallets.

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce4

Whoarethese

consumers?

Weidentifiedthisemerginggroupofindividuals

duringourresearchongrowingmarkets,

specifically92countriesacrossSub-SaharanAfrica,theMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,andtheAsiaPacificregion.

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce5

Assessingtherelativedigitalmaturityanddigitalcommercepotentialinthesecountries,wehomedinon22ofthem.

Then,weusedthesamecriteriatopinpointcountrieswith

highdigitalcommercegrowthpotentialwithanemergingyoungpopulation.ThisnarroweditdowntoBangladesh,Egypt,Ethiopia,India,Indonesia,Kenya,NigeriaandthePhilippines.

(SeeFigure1.)

Intheseeightcountries,digitalcommercerevenueshavequadrupledsince2017—

equatingto$211billionin2022.

Andyoungerpeoplearealreadyeithershoppersorinfluencersthemselves.GenZers(theoldestdigitalnatives,bornbetween1997and2012)andolderGenAlphas(bornbetween2013and2017)representmorethanonethird(36%)ofthepopulation

overall.2,3That’salmostabillionindividuals.

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce

6

Eightcountriesshowingstrongdigitalmaturity

85

Figure1:

Eightcountries

OverallDigitalVelocityScore*

*DigitalVelocityScore:SeeAboutthereseachforcalculations

80

75

70

withanemergingyoungpopulationexhibitstrongerdigitalmaturity

thantherest

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

Sources:

StatistaGlobalSurvey,2022,

AccentureResearchanalysis

basedonGDPdataderivedfromOxfordEconomics.4,6

Sizeofbubble:

inUSDmnin2022–2027

●Sub-SaharanAfrica

●SouthAsia

●MiddleEast

●SoutheastAsia

Bangladesh

Iran,IslamicRep.

Indonesia

EgyptPhilippines

GDPabsolutegrowth

Thailand

Kenya

India

Nigeria

Vietnam

●

Ethiopia

Iraq

Angola

●Ghana

SouthAfrica

Morocco

●Tanzania

Malaysia

Pakistan

Coted’Ivoire

.Myanmar

●SriLanka

252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566

GenZandGenAlpha(%ofpopulation)

Agegroups:0–4(GenAlpha,loweragegroup),5–9(GenAlpha,upperagegroup),10–24yearsold(GenZ)

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce7

Considertoo,acrosstheeightcountrieswestudied,

98%ofGenZerswithinternetaccessareactivesocialmediauserswhospendanaverageoffourhoursand

14minutesonlineontheirsmartphoneseveryday,overanhourmorethanothergenerations.4,5

inscopeoverthenextdecade(millions&%inpopulation)

17%

414.415%

Oursurveyofagegenerationsinthesecountries,combinedwithmodelinganalysis,identifiedfourconsumersegmentsbasedonshoppingpreferencesandagegroups.

Thesesegmentsrepresentabout

1.4billiondigitallyastuteandinfluentialconsumerswhowillenterthemarket

overthenextdecade.

Wecallthem:DigitalNativePurchasers,DigitalSavvy

Millennials,DigitalNativeContentCreatorsandDigitalAlphaInfluencers.(SeeFigure2.)TheAbouttheresearchsectionofthisreportoffersmoredetailsaboutourmethodology.

Figure2:Almost1.4billiondigitallyastuteandinfluential

consumerswillentertheseeightmarketsoverthenextdecade

billionpeople(55%ofthepopulationin2022)

1.36

361.7

122.5

Millennials

151.9

GenZers+

Upper

GenAlphas

87.3

LowerGen

Alphas

12%

284.4

2%

46.9

SilentGenBabyBoomersGenXersDigitally

Inactive

Generationalbreakdownofcountries

18%

450.7

20%

496.6

DigitalNativePurchasers

10%

261.0

DigitalNative

ContentCreators

6%

149.9

DigitalAlphaInfluencers

DigitalSavvyMillennials

Source:AccentureResearch

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce8

Consumerprofile1

Digitalnativepurchasers

TheyaremostlyGenZersandolderGenAlphaswhowillbebetween15and

34yearsoldin10years.

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce9

Almostallofthisgroupshoponlineand

customerexperiencemattersalottothem.

Zawadi,23,isaclassicDigitalNativePurchaser.

ShelivesinKenya,worksintheITindustryandhas

asteadyincome.Afashionista,she’salwaysbrowsingonlinefortrendyclothesandlovescheckingout

brandsonInstagrambeforebuyingfromthem.

Shesaysshereads“aton”ofcustomerreviews

beforemakingapurchasetoconfirmthataproduct’squalityisgoodandthatsizingisaccurate.Whensheordersonline,shewantstobeabletotrackdelivery

ateachtouchpointandappreciatesbrandsthatprovidesame-daydelivery.

buyitems,suchas

clothing,bags,shoes,

watchesandaccessories

71%

findonlinecustomerreviewsveryhelpful.5

74%

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce10

Consumerprofile2

Digitalnative

contentcreators

TheyarethesameageasDigitalNativePurchasers,butcurrentlydon’tmakeonlinepurchases—andwedon’texpectthemto

becausethey’remorefocusedonsavings.

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce11

83

ofGenZersinteractwithbrands

throughsocialmediaandwebsites,eveniftheydon’tbuyfromthem.5

Theseindividualsreviewproducts

andservicesonline,andtheirofflineshoppingchoicesareinfluencedbyreviewspostedonsocialmedia;

morethan72%areswayedbylotsof“l(fā)ikes”or“goodcomments.”

Amitava,19,isfromBangladesh.Heisstudyingonlinetobecomea

teacherandisintentonsavingmoneytosupporthiseducation.Hedoesn’tshoponline,butinhisfreetime,helovestoreviewproductsandbrandsliveonTwitchstreams,orsharevideosaboutthemwithallhissocial

contacts.HeoftenscrollsthroughsocialmediaandpostsdailyonInstagram,Facebook,TwitterandTikTok.Hebuiltupasignificant

followinginjustafewyearsandcreatedaDiscordcommunityforhiscontacts,sotheycanallinteractwitheachotheranytime.

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce12

Consumerprofile3

Digitalsavvymillennials

Theseindividualsaren’tdigitalnativesandwillbebetween

35and44yearsoldoverthenextdecade.

Buttheyhaveincreasedtheirdigitalintelligence

overtimethroughfrequentuseofdigitalservices.Since2018,thenumberofmillennialswhomostlyoralwaysshoppedonlinehasnearlytripledand

theiruseofsocialmediahasalmostdoubled.5

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce13

Angelo,36,livesinthePhilippines.Heisabanker

withmorethan10years’experienceinthefinancial

servicesindustry.AngelohasbeenworkingfromhomesincetheCOVID-19pandemicincreasedworkplace

flexibility.Helivesaloneandisabitofaworkaholic.

Hedoesn’thavetimetogoshoppingandprefersto

ordereverythingonline—fromfoodtoelectronics,

allthewaydowntohissocks.Heisaccustomedto

convenienceathisfingertipsanddoesn’tmindwaitingforanorder,solongasit’sdelivereddirectlytohis

door.Ifthere’sfreedelivery,that’sabonus.

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce14

Consumerprofile4

Digitalalphainfluencers

Theseindividualsareyounger

GenAlphas.Inthenext10years,they’llstillbetooyoungtobe

activedigitalbuyers(<15years).However,theyalready

influencetheirparents’digitalcommercepurchases.

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce15

Intheeightcountrieswestudied,

83

ofparentssaytheirchildreninfluencetheirpurchases.

79%

saytheirchildrenintroducedthemtonewtechnologyorapps.5

Virat,12,liveswithhisparentsinIndia.Helovesgaming—assoonas

hegetshomefromschool,heturnsonthePlayStation?.Hereallywantstobeagamedeveloperwhenheisolder.Hisparentsarestillpretty

old-schoolandthinkthattechnologyistoocomplicated.Buteventhough“theydon’tgetit,”theystillbuyhimtheelectronicgadgetsthathe’s

interestedinandsubscribetostreamingsiteslikeNetflixbecause“nobodywatchesTVanymore,it’sallonlinenow.”Hehasstartedshowinghisdadhowtechnologycanmaketheirliveseasier—likeorderingfoodonline.

16

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce

Challengesto

growing

digitalcommerce

inthesemarkets

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce17

Thechallengestoservingthesehigh-potentialdigitalconsumersrunthegamut,frombasicoperational

Countryrisk

3

Operationalrisk

2

4

Crimeand

securityrisk

79

49

2

1

6

Labormarketrisk

70

2

1

Logisticsrisk

81

48

4

1

7

Tradeand

investmentrisk

75

1

1

2

Longtermeconomicgrowthrisk

65

10

9

I10

difficultiestoconsumerexpectationsthatarerisingfasterthancompaniescanmanage.

Thegoodnewsisthatexisting

digitaltechnologiesarealready

mitigatingmanyoperationalissues.

Andconsumerexpectationsareinmanywaysnodifferentfromwhatcompaniesareexperiencinginothermarketstheyserve.

AccordingtotheFitchCountryRiskIndexof205marketsacrosstheworld,oureighttargetmarketsareriskier

comparedtotheglobalaverage.TheIndexbenchmarksoperationalrisksbasedonfourmaincategories:LaborMarket,TradeandInvestment,Logistics,andCrimeandSecurity.3(SeeFigure3.)

Figure3:Therisky(albeitimproving)operationalenvironmenthasleftourtargetmarketslessattractivetobusinessinvestments

Scorechange:2014–2022

775453

764946

38

50

47

54

50

45

57

49

Top25

Global

Targetmarkets

FitchCountryRiskIndexScores

CountryGroupaverageindexscoresonascale0–100(100=thelowerrisk,0=highestrisk)

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce18

Companiesinthesecountriesmustalsocontend

withseveraloperationalhurdles.Poorroadsand

infrastructurecomplicatefulfillmentandlast-mile

delivery.Limitedaccesstofinanceandpayments

posesanotherchallenge,particularlyinsomeofthepoorercountriesinthegroup.Creatingconsumer

awarenessaboutaproductorserviceisalsodifficult.

Traditionally,companiesenteringthesemarketshavehadtoputupbillboardsorrandomlydistributeflyerstogetconsumers’attention.Theyhaven’tbeenabletomarkettotargetedgroupsofpeople.

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce19

Offeringsexist

toaddress

thesechallenges

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce20

Agrowingnumberofprovidersareaddressingtheseissues.CrowdsourcingdeliveryandQ-commerceservices,forexample,canfacilitatefulfillmentandreduceshippingcosts.Theyalsoofferconsumersgreaterflexibility.

UberEats,Zomatoandfoodpandalettheircustomersscheduledeliveries

basedontheiravailabilityandtracktheirordersinrealtime.Ourstudyshowsthatspeedofdeliveryisimportanttodigitallyastuteconsumers.Additionally,73%are

influencedbyconvenientdeliveryoptionsand79%byfreedeliveryoptions.5

Therearealsopaymentproviders,such

asZest,Kredivo,AtomeandSimpl,that

offeraninterest-freeservicecalledBuy

NowPayLater(BNPL).Tech-savvybut

cash-strappedconsumerswithnoaccesstocreditareembracingthefreedom

thatBNPLoffers.Infact,BNPLpaymentsacrossourtargetmarketsareexpected

togrowonaverageby112.3%everyyeartoreachover$14.3billionin2022.7–9Thiscanreducecompanies’riskbyputting

theburdenonpaymentproviders’

businessmodels.SomecompaniesthatcollaboratewithBNPLprovidersarealsoseeingincreasedsaleconversions,bettercustomerexperiencesandimproved

customerlifetimevalue.

Meanwhile,socialcommercegloballyis

providinganincreasinglyattractivewaytoreachmassivemarketsdirectlyatlowcost.

Ourstudyshowsthatmorethanhalfof

digitallyastuteconsumersprefershoppingonsocialmediaappstootherpurchasingplatforms.IndependentbeautybrandGlowRecipejoinedTikTok’sshoppingprograminApril2021andnow90%ofitstrafficis

first-timebuyers.Thebrandfirstmade

theheadlineswhenitssalessurged600%afterbeingfeaturedinaTikTokvideo

byaninfluencerwithoversevenmillion

followers.10Socialcommercecanalsolaythegroundworkforrepeatpurchases,with63%ofthesocialcommerceshopperswesurveyedsayingtheyaremorelikelytobuyfromthesameselleragain.11

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce21

Theconsumer

expectations

Currentconsumersalreadytake

advantageofdigitalserviceswhenconsideringormakingapurchase.

challenge

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce22

Whenwesurveyedmorethan3,000consumers

intheseeightmarkets,wefoundthat:

80%76%70%75%

useonlinechannels

suchassearchengines,

socialnetworksandvideos

toresearchproductsor

servicesbeforepurchasing.

areinfluencedbylotsof

“l(fā)ikes”or“goodcomments”

onsocialmediawhen

decidingwhethertobuy

somethingonline.

useonline

paymentmethods.

saidthateasy

returnpoliciesarean importantfactorthatinfluencestheironlinepurchasingdecisions.

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce23

However,whenwelooked

atabout112,000socialmediacommentsrelatedtoconsumerexperiencesinthesemarkets,thenegativesfaroutnumberedthepositives.Fifty-twopercentratedtheiroverallexperience

asnegative.(SeeFigure4.)

Theresultsindicatethatcurrent

consumersareoftenleftfrustratedbythedigitalservicestheyreceive,incontrasttowhatbusinesses

perceivetheyprovide.

Figure4:Consumersentimentsacrossthebuyerjourney12

Whilebusinessesaresatisfiedwiththedigitalservicestheyprovide,consumersfeeldifferently.

Consumersratedtheirdigitalexperiencesasincreasinglydissatisfying,especiallyastheyprogressedinthebuyerjourney.

Overall

52

48

Use

64

36

Purchase

62

8

Considerandevaluate

45

55

Discover

35

65

Buyerjourney

3

0%20%40%60%80%100%

NegativePositive

Sentiment

Analysiscoverage:

?Inthegraph,the

positivesincludeneutralsentiments

?112,200consumersentiments

?154companiesfromtheretail,CPG,bankingandtelecommunicationindustriesacross

oureighttargetcountries

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce24

Thenextbillion

Companies

inIndiaandChinaaregoingfor

first-mover

advantage

ChineseandIndianinvestorsrecognizetheattractivenessofthesemarketsandareaimingtosecurebrandloyaltytherethroughfirst-moveradvantage.

consumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce

25

ChinaandIndiahaveincreasedtheirdigitalinvestmentsinthesemarketsby25%and15%,respectively,since2016.1

In2018,AlibabaacquiredDarazGroup,oneofthe

leadingdigitalcommercecompaniesinBangladesh.

DarazannouncedinJune2020itwouldinvest$59

millioninthecountryby2021toimprovethecompany’sdigitalcommercelogisticsinfrastructure,includingits

warehouseandsortingcenter.13

PaperflyandEcomExpresshavealsojoinedforces.

In2021,Paperfly,thelargesthome-deliveryservice

networkinBangladesh,announcedamajorityinvestmentofcloseto$13millionbyEcomExpress.ThisinvestmentbyIndia’sleadingtechnology-enabled,end-to-enddigital

commercelogisticssolutionsprovidercanhelpPaperflyfast-trackitsvisionofcapturingalion’sshareofthe

growingdigitalcommerceindustryinBangladesh.14

InKenya,StandardCharteredissettoenterthelocal

digitalcommercebusinessthroughSolv,atechnologyfirmitfirstlaunchedinIndiainDecember2020.15

AsLiuBin,generalmanagerofHisenseMiddleEastandAfrica,hassaid:“TheAfricandigitalcommercemarketisgrowingrapidly,andweshouldseizetheopportunitytobringvaluableChineseproductstoAfricanconsumers.”16

Thenextbillionconsumers:Afast-growingopportunityfordigitalcommerce