2024年煤炭報告介紹

Coal

2021

Analysisandforecastto2024

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

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Coal2021

Abstract

Abstract

Coal2021istheworld’smostcomprehensiveforecastofcoaldemand,supplyandtrade,basedondetailedanalysisofthemostrecentdataatcountryandsectorallevel,brokendownbycoalgrade(thermalcoal,cokingcoal,pulverisedcoal

injectionandlignite).Coal2021presentsrealdatafor2019and2020,themostup-to-dateestimatesfor2021,and

forecastfor2022,2023and2024.LeveragingtheIEA’sinter-fuelandinter-regionalexpertise,Coal2021reportis

consistentwiththeassumptionsandforecastsforoil,gas,

electricity,renewablesandenergyefficiencyinotheragencyreports.

Coal2021placesaspecialfocusonChina,whosedominanceofcoalmarkets–itisthelargestconsumer,producerand

importer–hasnoparallelwithanyothercountryoranyotherfuel.India,thesecond-largestproducer,consumerand

importer,alsoreceivesaspecialattention.Whereasthecurrentspeedofpolicyandmarketchangesis

unprecedented,Coal2021looksfortheunderlyingindicatorswhichwilldeterminecoalmarketsrealitiesthrough2024.

.

IEA.Allrightsreserved

Giventhatcoalisthelargestsourceofelectricitygeneration,thesecond-largestsourceofprimaryenergyandthelargestsourceofenergy-relatedCO2emissions,Coal2021isamust-readforanyonewithaninterestinenergyorclimate.

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Coal2021

Tableofcontents

Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 5

Demand 9

Areweontrackfornetzeroemissionsby2050? 31

Supply 34

Trade 51

Thermalcoal 54

Metallurgicalcoal 62

Pricesandcosts 68

Prices 69

Costs 79

Coalminingprojects 87

Annexes 98

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

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Coal2021

Executivesummary

Executivesummary

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|5

Coal2021

Executivesummary

Executivesummary

The2020collapseincoaldemandturnedouttobesmallerthananticipated

Evenbeforethepandemic,coalfacedadifficultoutlookfor2020.

DemandwasbeingsqueezedbyamildwinterintheNorthern

Hemisphere,lownaturalgaspricesandstrongrenewablesgrowth.WhenelectricitydemandandnaturalgaspricesplummetedastheCovid-19crisisescalated,coal-firedpowergenerationborethe

bruntoftheimpacts.Reducedindustrialactivityalsohitcoal

demand,althoughinamorelimitedway.Intheearlymonthsofthecrisis,adouble-digitannualdeclineinglobalcoaldemandlooked

plausible.ButeconomicrecoveryinChinacamesoonerand

strongerthaninitiallyexpected,withyear-on-yeargrowthresumingasearlyasinApril.Witheconomicrecoveryfollowingelsewhere

andacoldsnapinDecemberinNortheastAsia,globalcoaldemandfellby4.4%in2020–thelargestdeclineinmanydecadesbutlessthaninitiallyexpected.Theregionaldisparitieswerelarge.Coal

demandgrewby1%inChinain2020butdroppedbynearly20%intheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion–andby8%inIndiaandSouthAfrica.

Coal-firedpowergenerationissettoreachanall-timehighin2021

Thedeclinesinglobalcoal-firedpowergenerationin2019and2020ledtoexpectationsthatitmighthavepeakedin2018.But2021

dashedthosehopes.Withelectricitydemandoutpacinglow-carbonsupply,andwithsteeplyrisingnaturalgasprices,globalcoalpowergenerationisoncoursetoincreaseby9%in2021to10350

terawatt-hours(TWh)–anewall-timehigh.However,coal’sshareoftheglobalpowermixin2021isexpectedtobe36%–5

percentagepointsbelowits2007peak.IntheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion,coalpowergenerationisforecasttoincreasebyalmost20%in2021butwillnotreach2019levels.Bycontrast,

estimatedgrowthof12%inIndiaand9%inChinawillpushcoal

powergenerationtorecordlevelsinbothcountries.Takinginto

accountthereboundinglobalindustrialoutput,overallcoaldemandworldwideisexpectedtogrowby6%in2021,bringingitcloseto

therecordlevelsitreachedin2013and2014.

Chinacontinuestodominateglobalcoaltrends

China’sinfluenceoncoalmarketsisdifficulttooverstate.China’s

powergeneration,includingdistrictheating,accountsforone-thirdofglobalcoalconsumption.China’soverallcoaluseismorethan

halfoftheglobaltotal.CoaldemandinChinaisunderpinnedbyfastgrowingelectricitydemandandtheresilienceofheavyindustry.

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

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Coal2021

Executivesummary

two-thirdsofglobalcoalconsumption,despitetheireffortsto

increaserenewablesandotherlow-carbonenergysources.In

China,coaldemandgrowthisexpectedtoaveragelessthan1%

peryearbetween2022and2024.InIndia,strongereconomic

growthandincreasingelectrificationareforecasttodrivecoal

demandgrowthof4%peryear.India’sgrowingappetiteforcoalissettoadd130milliontonnes(Mt)tocoaldemandbetween2021

and2024.Formostindustrialpurposeswherecoalisused,suchasironandsteelproduction,therearenotmanytechnologiesthatcanreplaceitintheshortterm.Basedoncurrenttrends,globalcoal

demandissettoriseto8025Mtin2022,thehighestleveleverseen,andtoremaintherethrough2024.

Coalproductionissettorisetoitshighesteverlevelsin2022

Coalproductionfailedtokeeppacewithreboundingcoaldemandin2021,especiallyduringthefirsthalfoftheyear,cuttingintostock

levelsandpushingupprices.InChinaandIndia,wherecoal

shortagesledtopoweroutagesandidledfactories,domestic

policiestorampupproductionandreducecoalshortageswere

soonimplemented,facilitatedbythelargepresenceofstate-ownedcompaniesinproduction.Themaincoalexportingcountrieswere

preventedfromfullytakingadvantageofhighpricesbysupplychaindisruptions,suchasfloodinginIndonesianmines.Yearsoflower

investmentduetofinancingandbureaucraticrestrictionsalso

playedarole.OutsideChina,mostoftheadditionalproductionin

Thisisdespiteadecadeofstrongandsustainedeffortstodiversifythecountry’spowermix–duringwhichChinahasexpandedhydro,wind,solarandnuclearpowercapacitybymorethananyother

countryintheworld–andintensiveswitchingfromcoaltonaturalgasintheresidentialheatingandlightindustrialsectors.Chinaisalsotheworld’slargestcoalproducerandimporter,withdomesticpriceswingsfromsupply-demandimbalancesimmediately

impactinginternationalmarkets.

Globalcoaldemandmaywellhitanewall-timehighinthenexttwoyears

Beyond2021,globalcoalconsumptionissettoreverttothepatternseenoverthepreviousdecade:declinesinadvancedeconomies

offsetbygrowthinsomeemerginganddevelopingeconomies.AfteritsbriefreboundintheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionin

2021,coaldemandwillresumeitsdeclinethrough2024.Thisis

mostlydrivenbythepowersectorwhereslowelectricitydemand

growthandrapidexpansionofwindandsolarPVareeatinginto

coalpowergeneration.Inaddition,abigpartoftherecentswitchingfromnaturalgastocoalwillreverseasgaspricesretreatfromtheirhighs.Atthesametime,countriessuchasVietNam,the

PhilippinesandBangladesh,whereverystronggrowthincoal

demandhadbeenexpectedafewyearsago,arenowsettoshowmoremodestincreasesastheyshiftmoretowardssourcesof

electricitythatarelesscarbonintensive.However,globalcoal

reserved.

trendswillbeshapedlargelybyChinaandIndia,whoaccountfor

IEA.Allrights

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Coal2021

Executivesummary

2021camefromexistingminesorreopenedminesthathadbeen

idledduringperiodsoflowprices.Futurescontractsforcoalare

tradingwellbelowspotprices,whichisnotconducivetoinvestment.Coalproductionisforecasttoreachanall-timehighin2022and

thenplateauasdemandflattens.

Coalpricesreachedrecordhighsin2021

Underpressurefromlowdemandandlownaturalgasprices,spot-tradedthermalcoalpriceshadfallentoUSD50pertonneinthe

secondquarterof2020,downbyaround50%overan18-month

period.Theystayedaroundthesamelevelthroughthethird

quarter.SupplycutbacksthenbalancedthemarketbeforereboundsineconomicactivityandcoaldemandinChinastartedpushing

pricesup.In2021,thepriceofcoalwasfurtherliftedbydemand

outstrippingsupplyinChina–theglobalcoalpricesetter–aswellasbysupplydisruptionsandhighernaturalgaspricesglobally.

Chinesecoaldemandreboundedbymorethan10%inthefirsthalfof2021,butproductiondidnotkeeppaceinpartbecausemany

mineshadclosedinpreviousyearsamidgovernmentfearsof

oversupply.Coalpricesreachedall-timehighsinearlyOctober

2021,withimportedthermalcoalinEurope,forexample,hitting

USD298pertonne.QuickpolicyinterventionbytheChinese

governmenttobalancethemarkethadarapideffectonprices.Asofmid-November,EuropeanpriceswereintherangeofUSD150pertonne.

Momentumbehindnetzerohasgrown,buttheeraofdecliningemissionsismovingfurtheraway

Thepledgestoreachnetzeroemissionsmadebymanycountries,includingChinaandIndia,shouldhaveverystrongimplicationsforcoal–butthesearenotyetvisibleinournear-termforecast,

reflectingthemajorgapbetweenambitionsandaction.Japan,

KoreaandChinahavealsocommittedtostoppublicfundingfor

buildingnewcoalpowerprojectsabroad,severelylimitingthe

possibilitiesforexpandingcoal-firedgenerationinmanycountries.NewcommitmentsduringCOP26,suchastheGlobalCoaltoCleanPowerTransitionStatementtoacceleratethetransitionfrom

unabatedcoalpowergeneration,putadditionalpressureoncoal.

ThecoalpowergenerationreboundintheUnitedStatesand

Europein2021isablip,andcoaldemandwillresumeitsdeclineinbothregions.However,Asiadominatestheglobalcoalmarket,withChinaaccountingformorethanhalfofglobaldemand,ortwo-thirdsifIndiaisadded.Thesetwoeconomies–dependentoncoaland

withacombinedpopulationofalmost3billionpeople–holdthekeytofuturecoaldemand.Thefateofcoaldependsonhowquicklyandeffectivelycountriesmovetoimplementtheirnetzerocommitments.Andthelevelofcoaldemandinanetzerocarboneconomywill

dependonhowsuccessfuleffortsaretodeploycarboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS)technologies.

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

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Coal2021

Demand

Demand

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|9

Coal2021

Demand

Astrongreboundin2021andslowgrowththereafterleadtohighesteverglobalcoaldemandby2024

TheimportanceofChinaintheworldcoalmarketcannotbe

overstated.In2020,itsshareofglobalcoalconsumptionrose

furtherto53%.AsChinaandIndia(12%)togetheraccountfor

roughlytwo-thirdsofworldcoaluse,globaltrends(andhenceourforecast)dependheavilyondevelopmentsinChinaand,toalesserextent,India.

WiththeimpactoftheCovid-19pandemic,totalcoalconsumptiondeclined4.4%in2020,to7456Mt.Coaluseforpowerproductiondropped4.2%duetolowerelectricityconsumption(-0.5%)aswellasgrowthinrenewablegenerationandlowgasprices.Industrialproductionwasalsodepressedbecauseofconfinementsandtheeconomicslowdown,resultinginlowercoalconsumptioninnon-powersectors(-5.4%).

ThemostsubstantialrelativedeclinesincoalusewereintheUnitedStates(-18%/-96Mt)andtheEuropeanUnion(-19%/-93Mt).Othermajorcoal-consumingcountriesexperiencedsmallerbutsignificantdecreases,forinstanceIndia(-8%/-83Mt),theRussianFederation(hereafter“Russia”)(-6%/-15Mt)andSouthAfrica(-8%/-15Mt).Incontrast,coaluseinChina,theworld’sprimarycoalconsumer,

increasedslightlyby0.5%(+21Mt).

A6%reboundisexpectedtoraisecoalconsumptionto7906Mtin2021,similartothe2010increasethatfollowedtheglobalfinancialcrisis.WhileCoal2020didforecastthatcoaldemandwouldbouncebackrobustlyin2021,thereboundisturningouttobemuch

strongerforthreereasons:first,theglobaleconomyrecovered

morequicklythanexpected,withglobalGDPgrowthof~5.8%,thehighestinalmosthalfacentury.Second,acoldwinterandhot

summerboostedpowerdemandwhilelowrainfallandweakwindsinsomeregionsdecreasedelectricitysupplies.Third,weather

conditionsandsomesupplyissuespushedgaspricestoall-timehighs,raisingdemandforcoalforpowergeneration.

Thebulkoftheincreasein2021isfromthreecountries:China,

IndiaandtheUnitedStates.Inallthree,coaluseinpower

generationincreasedsignificantly.China’scoalconsumptionis

expectedtoincreaseby159Mt(+4%),whiledemandrises125Mt(+13%)inIndiaand74Mt(+17%)intheUnitedStates.Coal

consumptionisalsoexpectedtorecoverinotherregions,includingtheEuropeanUnion(+45Mt)andSoutheastAsia(+14Mt).

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Althoughcoaldemandisanticipatedtogrowslowerafterthestrongrecoveryof2021,itsurpassestherecordof2013in2022andrisestoanall-timehighof8031Mtin2024.Theincreaseisdrivenby

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Inthelonger-termperspective,verylowglobalcoaldemandgrowththrough2024–afterthe2020dropand2021rebound–sustainsthepastdecade’sgeneraltrendtowardsplateauingconsumption,apartfromannualfluctuationscreatedbyeconomic,marketor

weatherconditions.

China(+135Mt),India(+129Mt)andthecountriesofSoutheastAsia(+50Mt).Inalltheseregions,economicgrowthspurshigherpowerdemand,withcoalasthecentralpillarofpowergeneration.However,increasesinAsiawillbeoffsetbydeclinesintheUnitedStates(-77Mt)andtheEuropeanUnion(-102Mt)by2024.

TheoverallcontinuedincreaseassumesthatglobalGDPrisesatacompoundaverageannualgrowthrate(CAAGR)of4%from2022to2024.Iftheeconomydoesnotperformasexpected,especiallyinChina,itwillclearlyaffectcoalconsumption.Anothercritical

forecastassumptionisgaspricedevelopment,ascoalandgasarethemaincompetitorsintheelectricitymarkettofillwhatisknownasthe‘’thermalgap’’

1

(thedifferencebetweenelectricitydemandandnuclearandrenewableelectricitygeneration).

Thisforecastisthereforebasedonmarketexpectationsexpressedthroughforwardprices.Aspricefuturesforgasarerelativelyhighuntil2024,coal’sshareintheenergysupplymixwillbemore

significantthanwhatweexpectedinlastyear’sreport.Thelevelofcoal-firedgenerationwillalsodependheavilyonthesizeofthe

thermalgap,whichislargelydeterminedbytherateofrenewableelectricitygenerationgrowth.ThisreportreflectstheresultsofthelatestRenewableEnergyMarketReport’smaincasescenario.

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

1Strictlyspeaking,nuclear,oil,biomass,wasteandgeothermalenergysourcesarealsousedforthermalpowergeneration.

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Coal2021

Demand

Plateauingofcoalconsumptionresumes

Globalcoalconsumptionbyregion,2000-2024Changesincoalconsumptionbyregion,2021-2024

Mt

Mt

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

2000200820162024

aChinaaIndiaaOtherAsia

aUnitedStatesaEuropeanUnionaRestofworld

8200

8100

8000

7900

7800

7700

7600

7500

7400

7300

8031

56

7906

129

7801

102

17

77

135

7456

2019202020212024

uIndia

aRestofworld

UnitedStatesOtherAsia

aEuropeanUnionChina

IEA.Allrightsreserved.IEA.Allrightsreserved.

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|12

Coal2021

Demand

Coal-firedpowergenerationreachesall-timehighin2021

In2020,thedeclineinworldwideelectricityconsumption(-0.5%)andlownaturalgaspricescausedcoal-firedgenerationtodrop

3.8%(-380TWh),whichreducedconsumptionofbothsteamcoal(-3.6%to5735Mt)andlignite(-13%to621Mt).

Globalelectricityconsumptionisexpectedtorebound6%in2021,exceedingthe2019level,aseconomicrecoveryaroundtheglobeandadverseweatherconditionsboostdemandatthesametimeasrenewablepowergenerationislowerthanexpectedduetomeagrerainfallandweakwindinsomeregions.China’selectricitydemandgrowthfor2021isestimatedat10%,reflectingthecountry’sstrongeconomicrecoveryaswellasacoldsnapinthenorthanda

warmer-than-averagesummer.

Renewableenergyandnuclearpowergenerationareexpectedtomeet~39%oftheincreaseinelectricitydemandin2021,while

residualgrowthofmorethan800TWhwillbecoveredbycoalandgas.Agassupplyshortageandresultingrecord-highgasprices

supportareboundincoal-basedpowergeneration,especiallyintheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion,wheresharesofcoalin

powergenerationhavebeendecliningforyears.Consequently,globalcoal-firedpowergenerationisexpectedtoincrease9%in2021,recoveringtoabove2019levels.

For2022-2024,globalpowerdemandisexpectedtoincrease

~2099TWh(annualaveragegrowthof2.4%),ofwhichalarge

share(91%)willbecoveredbyadditionalrenewableelectricity

generation.Weexpectagapofmorethan220TWhtobefilledbycoal-andgas-firedpowergeneration.Withforwardpricespointingtoagaspricedrop,weexpectgastomeetmostoftheremainingdemandwhilecoal-firedpowergenerationstaysstableovertheperiod.

AscoalisthecornerstoneoftheelectricitysuppliesofIndia,ChinaandsomeSoutheastAsiancountries,weestimatecoal-firedpowergenerationduring2021-2024toincrease4.1%inChina,11%in

Indiaand12%inSoutheastAsia.Meanwhile,areturntodecliningtrajectoriesisexpectedintheUnitedStates(-21%)andthe

EuropeanUnion(-30%).

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

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Coal2021

Demand

Aslow-carbonsourcesmeetmostbutnotalladditionalpowerdemand,gasandcoalfillthegap

Additionalglobalpowerdemandandgenerationbysource,2020-2024Gaspricemarkers,2019-2024

TWh

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

6161877

2099

834

1542

DemandRESand

nuclear2020-2021

DemandRESand

nuclear2021-2024

Gasandcoal

Gas

andcoal

aPowerDemandaRenewables,nuclearandothersaCoalaGas

USD/MBtu

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

201920202021202220232024

TTFHenryHubAsianSpotLNG

IEA.AllrightsreservedIEA.Allrightsreserved

Note:RES=renewableenergysource.

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

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Afterrecovering,non-powercoalconsumptionresumesweakgrowth

Inadditiontopowergeneration,thermalcoalisusedforoperationssuchascementproductionandindustrialandhouseholdheat

applications.In2020,non-powerthermalcoalconsumption

decreased5.4%to1368Mt,mostlybecauseofdevelopmentsinChinaandIndia.InChina,whichisbyfarthelargestconsumerofthermalcoalfornon-powerpurposes,consumptiondeclined4.4%.InIndia,theworld’ssecond-largestconsumer,consumption

plummeted20%,severelyimpactedbytheeconomicdownturnresultingfromthepandemic.

Nevertheless,non-powerthermalcoaluseisexpectedtoincreaseveryslightly(+0.2%)to1370Mtin2021aseconomiesaroundthegloberecover.Replacingcoalwithotherenergyresourcesfornon-powerapplicationstakeslongerthanforelectricitygeneration

becausesubstitutioninthenon-powersectorismoredifficult.In

India,weexpecta12%reboundasthecementandotherindustriesrecoverfromtherecession.Furtherslightincreasesof1.1%per

yeararealsoforecastasindustrialconsumptioncontinuesto

expand,especiallyinIndiaandSoutheastAsia,foratotalof1417Mtin2024.Incontrast,non-powercoaluseinChinaissetto

continuedecliningasthecountrysustainseffortstoreducecoalconsumptionforresidentialheatingandsmallindustries.

Changesinthermalcoalconsumptionfornon-powerpurposesbyregion,2019-2024

Mt

-

100

75

50

25

0

-25

-50

-75

100

2019-20202020-20212021-2024

ChinaaIndia

SoutheastAsiaOtherAsia

WEuropeanUnionaRestofworld

World

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Metallurgical(met)coal,whichincludescokingcoal(hard,mediumandsemi-soft)andcoalforpulverisedcoalinjection(PCI)isa

primaryingredientinsteelmaking.Coke(producedbyheating

cokingcoalinacokeovenintheabsenceofoxygen)isalsousedtoproducecarbides,ferroalloysandothercompounds.Accordingly,

steelproductionprojectionsoforganisationssuchasthe

World

SteelAssociation

areakeybasisforourmetcoalforecast.

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|15

Coal2021

Demand

In2020,globalmetcoalconsumptiondeclined3%to1100Mtas

steelproduction(outsideofChina)decreased,mainlydueto

pandemic-relatedeffects.Chinaisbyfartheworld’slargestmet

coalconsumer,accountingfor68%oftheglobaltotalin2020.OthersignificantmetcoalconsumerswereRussia(6%),theEuropean

Union(5%)andIndia(5%).Incontrastwithmostothercountries,metcoalconsumptioninChinaincreasedslightlyin2020

(+0.7%/+5Mt).ThelargestdeclinewasinIndia(-22%/-16Mt).

Weexpectaslightincreaseof0.5%in2021,raisingconsumptionto1106Mt.Assteelproductionrecovers,metcoaluseincreasesin

allmajorsteel-producingregions,i.e.India(+17%/+9Mt),the

EuropeanUnion(+9%/+5Mt),Russia(+2.4%/+2Mt)andJapan

(+10%/+4Mt).WhileconsumptioninChinaremainedhighinthe

firsthalfof2021,steelproductionfellinthesecondhalfoftheyear,directlyaffectingmetcoaldemandandleadingustoexpecta

declineinconsumption(-3.9%).Despitetheoverallrecoveryinsteelproduction,globalmetcoaluseremainsbelowthe2019level.

Nevertheless,asmetcoalremainsacentralelementinsteel

production,consumptionisforecasttoincreaseto2024,risingatanannualaverageof1.7%to1164Mt.Outputofelectricarcfurnaceswilldependonscrapavailability,butourforecastassumesonlya

smallincreaseintheEAF/BOFproductionratiothrough2024,

basedonhistoricaltrends.Alternativemanufacturingprocessessuchashydrogendirectreductionwillbemarginalby2024.WhileconsumptioninChinaflattens,growthinIndia(+14Mt)andother

developingeconomiescontinuesasnewblastfurnacesareconstructedtomeetrisingsteeldemand.

Metcoalconsumptionandannualchangesbyregion,2019-2021

Mt

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Mt

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

2019202020212019-20202020-2021

China

EuropeanUnion

RussiaKorea

aIndiaJapan

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Changesinmetallurgicalcoalconsumptionbyregion,2021-2024

Mt

1

1

1

1

1

1

180

160

140

120

100

080

1164

3

6

5

1106

9

14

22

20212024

ChinaaIndiaURussia

EuropeanUnionaJapanandKoreaaRestofworld

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|16

Coal2021

Demand

China’scoalconsumptionhitsall-timehighin2021andcontinuestorisethrough2024

China’stotalcoalconsumptionamountedto3971Mtin2020,of

which2433Mt(61%)wasthermalcoalforpowergeneration.

Another789Mtofthermalcoalwasusedinnon-powerapplications,andtherestwasmetcoal(749Mt),usedprimarilyinsteelmaking.AlthoughtheCovid-19pandemicoutbreakandresultinglockdownsreducedcoaldemandinthefirstquarterof2020,astrongreboundineconomicactivitycausedoverallconsumptiontoincrease0.5%in2020,makingChina,alongwithVietNam,oneoftheveryfew

countriesinwhichcoaluseactuallyincreased.

Thermalcoalconsumptionsurgedinlate2020andearly2021,

drivenbyrevivedindustrialproductionandanunusuallycoldwinter.In2021,strongeconomicgrowth,highsummercoolingdemandandlowhydropowergenerationfurtherboostedcoalconsumption.

Despitethecountry’scoalshortageandcorrespondingimplicationsforindustrialproductionandelectricitydemand,westillexpect

China’scoalconsumptiontoincrease4%to4130Mtin2021–surpassingtherecordsetin2013.

China’scoalconsumptionto2024isforecasttoincreaseslightly

(1.1%peryearonaverage),mainlytosatisfypowersectorneeds,toreach4266Mt.Despiteintensivenuclearandrenewableenergycapacityexpansions,Chinawillstillhavetorelyoncoaland,toalesserextent,gastokeeppacewithrisingelectricitydemand.

Thermalcoaluseinnon-powerapplications(e.g.residential,

commercialandsmall-scaleindustry)isexpectedtodecrease

furtherasthecontinuedphaseoutofsmall,inefficientcoalboilersaddstoprogressmadeinthelastsevenorsoyears.Asdomesticsteeldemandisexpectedtostabilise,metcoalconsumptionisnotforecasttoincreasethrough2024.Outsideofpower,theonlysectorinwhichcoaldemandstillgrowsiscoalconversion.

Annualchangesin