2024年春季太陽能產(chǎn)業(yè)更新報(bào)告（英文版）-NREL

Spring2024

SolarIndustryUpdate

DavidFeldmanJarettZuboy

KrystaDummit,SolarEnergyTechnologiesOfficeDanaStright

MatthewHeine

ShaynaGrossman,ORISEaFellow

RobertMargolisaOakRidgeInstituteforScienceandEducation

PhotobyU.S.DepartmentofEnergy

May14,2024

NREL|2

Agenda

1

GlobalSolarDeployment

2

U.S.PVDeployment

3

PVSystemPricing

4

GlobalManufacturing

5

ComponentPricing

6

MarketandPolicy

7

U.S.PVImports

ExecutiveSummary

GlobalSolarDeployment

?IEAreportedthatin2023,407–446GWdcofPVwasinstalledglobally,bringingcumulativePVinstallsto1.6TWdc.

–Chinacontinuestodominatetheglobalmarket,representing~60%of2023installs,up120%y/y.Therestoftheworldwasup30%y/y.

–TheU.S.wasthesecond-largestmarketintermsofcumulativeandannualinstallations.

?AnalystsprojectthatcumulativeglobalPVinstallationswillreach2TWdc–5TWdcby

2030and4TWdc–15TWdcby2050.

U.S.PVDeployment

?In2023,PVrepresentedapproximately54%ofnewU.S.electricgenerationcapacity,comparedto6%in2010.

?Solarstillrepresentedonly11.2%ofnetsummercapacityand5.6%ofannualgenerationin2023.

?However,22statesgeneratedmorethan5%oftheirelectricityfromsolar,withCalifornialeadingthewayat28.2%.

?EIAreportedthattheUnitedStatesinstalled26.3GWac(~32GWdc)ofPVin2023,endingtheyearwith137.5GWacofcumulativePVinstallations.

?SEIA,whichhasdifferentdefinitionsof“placed-in-service,”reported40.3GWdcofPVinstalledin2023,186.5GWdccumulative.

?TheUnitedStatesinstalledapproximately26.0GWh/8.8GWacofenergystorageontotheelectricgridin2023,up34%y/y.

Alistofacronymsandabbreviationsisavailableattheendofthepresentation.

PVSystemandComponentPricing

?Themediansystempriceoflarge-scaleutility-ownedPVsystemsin2023was$1.27/Wac—relativelyflatsince2018.

?ThemedianpriceforresidentialPVsystemsreportedbyEnergySageincreased6.3%y/yto$2.8/Wdc—in-linewithmid-2020pricelevels.

?Globalpolysiliconspotpricesfell22%frommid-January($8.70/kg)tolateApril($6.76/kg),approachingthelowestnominalpriceseenoverthepastdecade.

?Therecentplungeinglobalmodulepricesleveledoff,stayingaround$0.11/WdcinQ12024.

?InQ42023,theaverageU.S.moduleprice($0.31/Wdc)wasdown5%q/qanddown22%y/y,butata140%premiumovertheglobalspotpricing.

GlobalManufacturing

?In2023,globalPVshipmentswereapproximately564GW—anincreaseof100%from2022.

?In2023,98%ofPVshipmentsweremonoc-Sitechnology,comparedto35%in2015.

?N-typemonoc-Sigrewto63%ofglobalPVshipments—upfrom51%in2022(and5%in2019).

?In2023,theUnitedStatesproducedabout7GWofPVmodules.

U.S.PVImports

?AccordingtoU.S.Censusdata,55.6GWdcofmodulesand3.7GWdcofcellswereimportedin2023,anincreaseof87%y/yand46%y/y,respectively.

?InQ12024,PVmoduleimportsheldrelativelysteadyforthethirdstraightquarterat

NREL|3

15.2GWdc.

NREL|4

Agenda

1

GlobalSolarDeployment

2

U.S.PVDeployment

3

PVSystemPricing

4

GlobalManufacturing

5

ComponentPricing

6

MarketandPolicy

7

U.S.PVImports

?IEAreportedthatin2023,407–446GWdcofPVwas

installedglobally,bringingcumulativePVinstallsto1.6TWdc.

–Chinacontinuestodominatetheglobalmarket,

representing~60%of2023installs,up120%y/y.Therestoftheworldwasup30%y/y.

–TheUnitedStateswasthesecond-largestmarketintermsofcumulativeandannualinstallations.

?AnalystsprojectthatcumulativeglobalPVinstallationswillreach2TWdc–5TWdcby2030and4TWdc–15TWdcby

2050.

?From2014to2023,globalPVcapacityadditionsgrewfrom40GWdctobetween407GWdcand446GWdc.

–Thespreadinestimatedglobalinstallationsis

500

PVAnnualInstallations(GWdc)

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

RestofWorld

RestofEuropeGermany

UnitedStates

IndiaJapan

China

2014201520162017201820192020202120222023

duetouncertaintyinChinesereporting.

–In2023,globalPVinstallsincreased73%–91%y/y.

?ThetotalcumulativeinstalledcapacityforPVattheendof2023reached1.6TWdc.

?Atleast29countriesinstalledmorethan1GWdcin2023,and19countrieshaveacumulativecapacityabove10GWdc.

?Chinacontinuestodominatetheglobalmarket,representing~60%of2023installs,up120%y/y.Therestoftheworldwasup30%y/y.

–Chinawasthelastcountrytorepresentoverhalftheglobalsolarmarket,in2017(51%).

GlobalAnnualPVCapacityAdditionsbyCountry

Note:China’sNationalEnergyAdministrationreportsvaluesinWac.Therefore,thereisuncertaintyinWdccapacityduetodifferingassumptionsoninverterloadingratio.The

NREL|5

“upside”reflectsahigherinverterloadingratio.

Sources:IEA,

SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets:2024

;

TrendsinPhotovoltaicApplications2023

.

TopPVMarkets

?In2023,severalcountrieshadverylargegrowthyears,withChina,Germany,andItalyroughlydoubling2022installations.

?IEAreportsthatthelargestockpileofPVmodules

increasedfurtherin2023to150GWdc.Chinahastriedtoabsorbsomeoftheovercapacity(thusthelarge

installationyear).However,thelargeincreasein

manufacturingcapacity,theswitchfromPERCto

TOPCon,andinsufficientdemandhaveexacerbatedthesituation.

800

Installations(GWdc)

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

CumulativePVDeployment,2023(1.6TWdc)

662

170165

9591

150

82

3836353028

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

AnnualPVDeployment,2023(407GWdcto446GWdc)

235.5Chinaupside

33.238.6

27.7

4.2

16.614.311.97.76.36.05.3

Note:China’sNationalEnergyAdministrationreportsvaluesinWac.Therefore,thereisuncertaintyinWdccapacityduetodifferingassumptionsoninverterloadingratio.The

“upside”reflectsahigherinverterloadingratio.NREL|6

Sources:IEA,

SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets:2024

;

TrendsinPhotovoltaicApplications2023

.

GlobalPVPenetration

?IEAestimatesthatin2023,6%ofglobalelectricitygenerationcamefromPV.

?TheUnitedStates,despitebeingaleadingPVmarket,isbelowtheglobalaverageandotherleadingmarketsintermsofPVgenerationasapercentageoftotalcountryelectricitygeneration,with6%.

–IfCaliforniawereacountry,itsPVcontribution(28%)wouldbethehighest.

25%

PercentofAnnualElectricityGeneration

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Source:IEA,

SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets:2024

.

NREL|7

Long-termGlobal

Projections

Asof2022,cumulativeglobalPVcapacitywasabout1,200GWdc.AnalystsprojectthatcumulativeglobalPVinstallationswillreach2TWdc–5TWdcby2030and4TWdc–15TWdcby2050.Their

resultsdifferlargelyduetodiscrepanciesintheprojectionsofChina'sfuturecapacity.

EIA'sReferenceCaseassumescurrentenergytrends,existinglawsandregulations,andselect

economic/technologicalchanges.Thisisthemostconservativeestimateofthoseanalyzed.

?EIAreferencecaseprojectsover5TWdcofPV

capacityby2050withtheUnitedStates,China,andIndiaeachhavingover1TWdcofcumulative

capacity.

BNEF'sEconomicTransitionScenario(ETS)is

BNEF’sbaselinescenarioofhowtheenergy

transitionmightevolveasaresultofcost-basedtechnologicalchanges.

?BNEFETSprojectsover10TWdcofPVcapacityby2050,withtheU.S.,China,India,and

Europeeachhavingover1,000GWdcofcumulativecapacity.

IEA'sStatedPoliciesScenario(STEPS)uses

assumptionsbasedonthelatestpolicysettings,includingenergy,climate,andindustrialpolicies.

?IEASTEPSprojectsover12.5GWdcofPVcapacityby2050,withtheUnitedStates,Europe,China,andIndiaeachhavingover

1TWdcofcumulativecapacityandChina

havingover6TWdcofcumulativecapacity.

NREL|8

Notes:P=projection.Coloredbarsrepresentbasecaseprojectionsforregion/country-levelestimates.Errorbarsrepresenthighandlowglobalprojections.Notallsourceshave

dataforallcategories.EIAreportsinGWacwhileBNEFandIEAreportinGWdc.AnILRvalueof1.25wasusedtoconvertbetweenGWacandGWdc.

Sources:EIA,

InternationalEnergyOutlook2023

;BNEF,NewEnergyOutlook2023;IEA,

WorldEnergyOutlook2023

Note:AnnualandcumulativesolarvaluesassumethatChina’sNationalEnergy

scalePVinalternating-currentterms.NEAreported120GWofutility-scalePVand

ChineseGenerationCapacityAdministration(NEA)reportsdistributedPVindirect-currenttermsandutility-

AdditionsbySource

96GWofdistributedPVfor2023.Onthisslide,ac/dcconversionsassumeadc-to-

acratioof1.1fordistributedPV.WeuseIEA-reportedtotalcapacityforWdc.

Sources:ChinaNEA(

1/26/24

,2/28/24

,

4/29/24

);IEA,

NationalSurveyReportof

PVPowerApplicationsinChina,2021

.

?In2023,solarcontributed59%ofnewgenerationcapacityinChina(235GWdcto277?RenewablesourcescontinuetocapturealargerGWdc/207GWac)and20%ofcumulativecapacity(662GWdcto704GWdc/585GWac).shareofChina’sgrowingelectriccapacity.

–Therecordforannualsolarinstalledwasbrokenforthethirdyearinarow.–In2011,renewablesmadeup26%of1.1TWacof

–In2023,42%ofnewPVwasdistributed,58%wasutilityscale.totalcapacity.

–Windandsolaraccountedfor80%ofcapacityinstalledin2023,andtogethertheyhave–In2023,renewablesmadeup50%of2.9TWacofconstitutedthemostcapacityinstalledfor8yearsrunning.totalcapacity.

–Annualcoalandgasadditionsrose78%in2023.

–InQ12024,Chinaadded43.6GWacofPV(21.9GWacutilityscale,21.6GWacdistributed).

AnnualCapacityAdditions(GWac)CumulativeCapacity(GWac)

400uSolaracuWind3533,500uSolaracuWind

HydroOtherHydroOther2,895

3002072,5001,9002,0112,20022,3378585

uNuclearuCoalandGas3,000uNuclearuCoalandGas2,545

200142711781862,0001,2581,3791,5211,6521,7168197244

961111211512512512311152821,5001,0631,1474175

10084345142291,000--一

500

00

20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

NREL|9

Note:Seeslide9forinstalledcapacityassumptions.

Sources:BNEF,ChinaMarketOutlook1H2024:RenewablesRiseinHeadwinds,

ChineseMarketUpdate

3/7/24;BNEF,China’sNewRPSTargetsWindandSolarDeployment,9/15/23;ChinaNEA(

1/26/24

,2/28/24

);PVTech

(04/22/24

).

?Chinainstalled120GWacofutility-scalePVin2023,a275%increasefrom32GWacinstalledin2022.

–Reasonsforthesurgeincludeddecliningmodulepricesandincreasingconstructionofrenewableenergy“megabases”—gigawatt-scalewindandsolarprojectssitedinremoteareas.

–ProvincialRenewablePortfolioStandard(RPS)targetswereanotherdriver.

?Formostprovinces,thetargetnon-hydroelectricitysharewasraised1.2percentagepointsfor2023and1.7percentagepointsfor2024,whichhasspurredmeasurespromotingwindandsolardeploymentinsomeprovinces.

?Forexample,in2023YunnanclosedsomeofitsRPSgapbyincreasingrenewableenergycompensationratesandfacilitatinglandapprovalandinterconnectionforutility-scaleprojects.

?The87GWacofdistributedPVinstalledin2023was74%higherthanthe50GWacinstalledin2022.

–DecliningPVequipmentpricesandhighpowerpricesdrovedemand.

–Therapiddeploymenthasexposedpotentialconstraintsincludinggrid-interconnectioncapacityandincreasingcurtailment.

?Chinadeployed20GWacofenergystoragein2023,reachingacumulative31GWacandachievingits30-GWacgoal2yearsearly.

–Thegrowthhasprimarilybeendrivenbyprovincialmandates.

–AsofJanuary2024,26provincesmandatedstoragewithPVprojects,withanaveragestoragecapacityrequirementequivalentto12%ofthePVcapacity.

?InQ12024,Chinainstalled46GWacofnewPV—a36%increasefromQ12023.NREL|10

EuropeanMarket

?Europe'sannualPVadditionsreachedarecordofnearly

61GWdcin2023,up41%from2022.

–IntheEU,utility-scalePVmadeup34%ofnewadditions(down6%from2022),commercialandindustrialPVmadeup33%ofnew

additions(up4%from2022),andresidentialPVmadeup33%ofnewadditions(up2%from2022).

?IEAreportsthatthewarinUkraineandresultingreducedgasacquisitionsincreasedthepriceofelectricity,makingPVmorecompetitive.

?AlargeextentofgrowthintheEUresidential

sectorstemsfromdelayed2022projects.Slowergrowthinthissectorisanticipatedin2024.

?UPVdeploymentdeclinedin2023duetodelayedauctions,highergridfees,inflation,and

permitting/grid-connectionissues.

Sources::IEA,

SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets:2024

;

TrendsinPhotovoltaicApplications2023

.;BNEF,1Q2024GlobalPVMarketOutlook,NREL|11

2/19/24;

EUMarketOutlookforSolarPower2023–2027-SolarPowerEurope

EUManufacturingMarket

?IntheEU,polysiliconproductiondecreasedby12%from2022,cellproductionincreasedby42%,module

productionincreasedby59%,andinverterproductionincreasedby14%.

?Thisyear,RECSolarNorwayshutdowntheiroperations.

TheonlypolysiliconmanufacturerleftinEuropeisWackerChemie.Theyproduce60,000MT/yrinGermany.

?NorwegianCrystalsannounceditsbankruptcyinAugust2023,leavingNorSunastheonlyingot/waferproducerinEurope.NorSuntemporarilysuspendeditsoperationsinSeptember2023.

?SolarcellmanufacturingintheEUhasgrown0.6GWfrom2022,with7activecompaniesinthissegment.

?Thereare57activemodulemanufacturersintheEU.

?TheEUrecentlyadoptedabanonproductsmadewith

forcedlabor(whichmayimpacttheEUsolarsupplychainbylimitingimportsfromChina).Memberstateswillhavetobeginapplyingtheregulationin2027.

Sources:BNEF,1Q2024GlobalPVMarketOutlook,2/19/24;

EUMarketOutlookforSolarPower2023-2027

,SolarPowerEurope;

AboutUs

,RECOMTechnologies,accessedNREL|12

5/21/24;

EUtosupportsolarmanufacturinginfaceof“veryfragilesituation”

,PVTech,3/4/24;

EuropeanParliamentpassesforcedlabourban

,PVTech,4/24/24.

BrazilMarketUpdate

?ABSOLARreportedthatBrazilinstalledaround12GWac(17GWdc)ofPVthisyear(IEAreported12GWdc).ThisismorethanBrazil’sentirecumulativecapacityin2020.

?Growthindeploymentwasdrivenbysub-5MWsolarsystems,whichareeligiblefornet-meteringbenefits.

?Small-scalesolarfacesheadwindsfromrising

transmissiontariffs(duetonew2022netmetering

regulations),difficultygettingpermits,competitionwithwholesalemarket,andimporttaxesonmodules.

?In2023,Brazilendeditsimporttaxexemptionfor

modules.Thecountrynowoperatesunderatariffratequota(TRQ)systemwherethefirst30GWofimportedmodulesareexemptandadditionalimportsfacetariffs.

?BNEFexpectsanother17–19GWdcofsolarinstallationsin2024,withapossibilityofaslowdowninthedistributedsectorduetothegovernment'seffortstoslowthis

market.

Sources:BNEF,1Q2024GlobalPVMarketOutlook,2/19/24;BNEF,TrendNewsletter,3/7/24;

ABSOLAR-BrazilianAssociationofPhotovoltaicSolarEnergy

NREL|13

IndianMarketUpdate

?

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

?

India'sAnnualPVCapacityAdditions(GWdc)

0

?

2014201520162017201820192020202120222023Sources:BNEF,1Q2024GlobalPVMarketOutlook,2/19/24;BNEF,1H2024IndiaRenewablesMarket

Outlook,2/29/24;MercomIndiaResearch,

Q4&Annual2023IndiaSolarMarketUpdate

,12/23;Mercom

Q1

2024IndiaSolarMarketUpdate

;Mercom

(3/12/24

);PVMagazine(

2/15/24

);IEA,

SnapshotofGlobalPV

Markets:2024

;

TrendsinPhotovoltaicApplications2023

.

IEAreportedthatIndiaadded16.6GWdcofPVin2023,down11%fromtherecord18.6GWdc

installedin2022.

–MostPVinstallswerecentralizedsystems.

–BNEFreportedthatsmall-scaleprojectdeployment

(mostlyrooftopPVbutalsooff-gridandagriculturalPV)rose35%from2022andmadeupaboutathirdofnew

2023PVcapacity.

–BNEFalsoreportedthatPVconstituted49%oftotalcapacityaddedin2023and17%ofIndia’scumulativecapacity.

BNEFreportedthatlargeprojectcostsfell27%betweenQ42022andQ42023.

–Drivenprimarilybyplummetingmoduleprices,Q4

2023sawIndia’slowest-everaverageprojectcost.

–Analystsexpectthelowercoststospurincreaseddeploymentin2024.

–Atyearend,105GWac(~140GWdc)oflargeprojectswereinthedevelopmentpipeline.

AnewPVsubsidyprogrammayboostdeploymentofresidentialrooftopinstallationsgoingforward.

NREL|14

PreventionAct,favorIndianmoduleimports.

IndianMarketUpdate–U.S.tradepolicies,suchastheUyghurForcedLabor

–TheU.S.marketprovidesIndianmanufacturerswith

higherprofitmarginscomparedwiththeIndianmarket.

–AQ42023slowdowninexportsmaybelinkedto

?Indianmoduleexportsgrew230%,from1.2GWdcinreducedU.S.demandand/orconcernsfromU.S.buyers

2022to4.1GWdcin2023.aboutthequalityofIndianmodules.

–Thebifacialshareofexportedmodulesrose.

?About97%of2023exportswenttotheUnitedStates.?MercomestimatesIndia’smodule/cell

IndianModuleExports,2022–2023manufacturingcapacityreached64.5/5.8GWdcin

2023,andMercomprojects150+/75+GWdcby

4.52026—farexceedingactualandprojecteddomestic

ModuleexportsfromIndia(GWdc)

4Exportedmoduledeployment.

3.5elsewhere–PVTechestimatestherewas29/5.4GWdcofIndian

3module/cellcapacityattheendof2023,producingatotalof12/1GWdcofmodules/cellsin2023.

2.5Exported

2totheU.S.?Indianmoduleimportsgrew41%,from11.6GWdc

1.5

1

in2022to16.3GWdcin2023.

–MostimportswerefromChinaasrecord-lowprices

madeChinesemodulesattractivedespitea40%tariff.

0.5

–India’sefforttobalancedomesticPVmanufacturing

0

withdomesticdeploymenthasproducedaconfusing

20222023

Sources:BNEF,1H2024IndiaRenewablesMarketOutlook,2/29/24;MercomCleanEnergyInsights(

3/14/23

,arrayoftradebarriersandexemptions,whichremainin

2/26/24

);MercomIndiaResearch,

StateofSolarPVMarketinIndia2024

,Spring2024;TaiyangNews(

2/12/24

);:fluxasofearly2024.NREL|15

PVTechResearch.PVManufacturing&TechnologyQuarterlyReport-Release32-February2024.

GlobalOff-GridSolarMarket

Total

ROWIndia

RestofAfrica

RestofEastAfrica

Kenya

10

9

Off-gridPVProductShipped(millionsofunits)

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

?Globalsalesofsolarenergykitsreachedtheir

secondhighestlevelever,thoughtheyfellfromhistoricalhighsalesin2022.

–Mostproductswereportablelanterns.

However,therewerealsoover1millionsolarhomesystemssoldin2023,andsolarpowerappliances,suchasfans,TVs,refrigerators,

waterpumps,andradios.

?Anestimated116millionpeoplecurrentlybenefitfromimprovedaccesstoenergythroughoff-gridsolarenergyproducts.

NREL

Source:GlobalOff-GridLightingAssociation,“GlobalOff-GridSolarMarketReportSemi-AnnualSalesandImpactData.”

|16

U.S.CSPProjectGenerationPerformance,2014–2023

CapacityFactor

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Solana(Trough+6

hoursstorage)

Genesis(Trough)

Mojave(Trough)

Ivanpah(Tower)

NevadaSolarOne(Trough)

Tonopah

(Tower+10hours

storage)

SEGSIII-IX(Trough)

Source:EIA,

Form923

.

?OverthepastdecadesincetheLPO-funded

CSPplantscameon-line,performancehas

generallybeenmoreconsistentforthetroughplantsthanthoseusingtowertechnologies,

particularlyin2023.

–TonopahproducednoelectricityfromMarchtoJuly,andtwoofthethreeIvanpahtowersproducedno/littleelectricityfortwoto

threemonthsinthefirsthalfof2023.

–Annualweathervariationalsocausedsomeofthedifferencesinannualproduction

?Absolutecapacityfactorisnotnecessarilythebestmetricforperformanceasplantscanbedesignedandoperateddifferently.

–Tonopahnowoperatestosellpoweratnight(thoughthatwouldnotexplainproducing

nopowerduringthesunniestpartofthe

year).NREL|17

Agenda

1

GlobalSolarDeployment

2

U.S.PVDeployment

3

PVSystemPricing

4

GlobalManufacturing

5

ComponentPricing

6

MarketandPolicy

7

U.S.PVImports

?In2023,PVrepresentedapproximately54%ofnewU.S.electricgenerationcapacity,comparedto6%in2010.

–In2023,over40GWacofnewinstalledcapacitywaseitherfromnon-carbonemissionsourcesorbatterytechnologies—3GWacabovethepreviousrecordlevelachievedin2021.

?Solarstillrepresentedonly11.2%ofnetsummercapacityand5.6%ofannualgenerationin2023.

–However,22statesgeneratedmorethan5%oftheir

electricityfromsolar,withCalifornialeadingthewayat28.2%.

?EIAreportedthattheUnitedStatesinstalled26.3GWac

(~32GWdc)ofPVin2023,endingtheyearwith137.5GWacofcumulativePVinstallations.

–SEIA,whichhasdifferentdefinitionsof“placed-in-

service,”reported40.3GWdcofPVinstalledin2023and186.5GWdccumulative.

?TheUnitedStatesinstalledapproximately26.0GWh/8.8

GWacofenergystorageontotheelectricgridin2023,up

34%y/y.NREL|18

AnnualGeneration(TWh)

U.S.Generation,2014–2023

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

10%

4.8%

22.7%

13%

10%

5.6%

Coal