2024年冬季太陽能產(chǎn)業(yè)更新報告（英文版）-NREL

Winter2024

SolarIndustryUpdate

DavidFeldmanJarettZuboy

KrystaDummit,LindahlReedContractorforSETO

DanaStright

MatthewHeineHeatherMirletzRobertMargolis

January25,2024

NREL|2

Agenda

1

GlobalSolarDeployment

2

U.S.PVDeployment

3

PVSystemPricing

4

GlobalManufacturing

5

ComponentPricing

6

U.S.PVImports

7

PVWasteandToxicity

ExecutiveSummary

GlobalSolarDeployment

?Analystsestimate350GWdcofPVwasinstalledgloballyin2023(thoughrecentdata

haveindicatedthatnumbercouldbemorelike440GWdc);globalinstallationsare

expectedtoincreaseto400GWdcin2024and590GWdcby2027.2023estimatesmay

increaseasitwasrecentlyreportedthatChinainstalled~260GWdcofPVpanelsin2023.

U.S.PVDeployment

?ThoughCaliforniaresidentialinstallationswereupthroughthefirstninemonthsof

2023,likelycausedbyaspikeininterconnectionapplicationsintheleaduptoApril15changefromCANEM2.0to3.0,interconnectionapplicationshavesinceplummetedwellbelowhistoricallevels.

?AccordingtoEIAdata,theUnitedStatesinstalled15.8GWacofPVinthefirst9monthsof2023—arecord—up31%y/y(SEIAreported19.3GWdc).

?EIAprojectsthepercentageofU.S.electriccapacityadditionsfromsolarwillgrowfrom46%in2022(18GWac)to54%in2023(31GWac),63%in2024(44GWac),and71%in

2025(51GWac).

?Otheranalysts’projectionsarelower,withamedianvalueof33GWdcin2023,growingto36GWdcin2024and40GWdcin2025.

?TheUnitedStatesinstalledapproximately15.1GWh(4.8GWac)ofenergystorageontotheelectricgridinthefirst9monthsof2023,+40%(+32%)y/y,asaresultofgrowthin

allsectors.

PVSystemandComponentPricing

?U.S.PVsystemandPPApriceshavebeenflatorincreasedoverthepast2years.

?Globalpolysiliconspotpricesfell18%frommid-October($10.53/kg)tomid-January($8.70/kg),approachingtheirlowestlevelsofthepastseveralyears.

?Globalmodulepricesreachedyetanotherrecordlow,falling22%betweenmid-Octoberandmid-Januaryto$0.11/Wdc.

?InQ32023,theaverageU.S.moduleprice($0.33/Wdc)wasdown11%q/qanddown23%y/ybutata100%premiumovertheglobalspotpriceformonofacial

monocrystallinesiliconmodules.

GlobalManufacturing

?BNEFreportsthatattheendof2023,globalPVmanufacturingcapacitywasbetween

650and750GW―agrowthof2–3xinthepastfiveyears,90%ofwhichoccurredinChina.In2023,globalPVproductionwasbetween400and500GW.

?DespiteglobalpricedropsacrossthePVsupplychain,PVmanufacturershavegenerallyremainedprofitable,thankstoincreasesinsalesvolumes(particularlyforN-typecells).

U.S.PVImports

?TheUnitedStatesimported40.6GWdcofPVmodulesinQ1–Q32023,settinganewsingle-quarterrecordofover15GWdcofmodulesimported.

?MostpanelsimportedwereexemptfromSection201dutiesandwerethereforelikelybifacial.Asignificantnumberofthin-filmmoduleswerealsoimported.

?2.4GWdcofcellswereimportedinQ1–Q32023,up31%y/y.

?TheU.S.isnotonpacetoreachthe5-GWdcquotaexemptionlimitforSection201tariffs,althoughithasexceeded3GWdcofimportsinasingleyearforthefirsttimeever.

NREL

Alistofacronymsandabbreviationsisavailableattheendofthepresentation.

|3

NREL|4

Agenda

1

GlobalSolarDeployment

2

U.S.PVDeployment

3

PVSystemPricing

4

GlobalManufacturing

5

ComponentPricing

6

U.S.PVImports

7

PVWasteandToxicity

?Analystsestimate350GWdcofPVwasinstalledgloballyin2023(thoughrecentdatahaveindicatedthatnumber

couldbemorelike440GWdc);globalinstallationsare

expectedtoincreaseto400GWdcin2024and590GWdcby2027.

–2023estimatesmayincreaseasitwasrecently

reportedthatChinainstalled~260GWdcofPVpanelsin2023.

–JMKResearchreportedthat10GWac(12.5GWdc)ofPVwasinstalledinIndiain2023―down28%y/y.MercomreportedthatIndianinstallationswerebeingdelayedduetotransmissionconnectivityandlong-termaccess.

AnnualGlobalPVDeployment

?Analystsestimateabout350GWdcofPVwereinstalledgloballyin2023,up50%from2022.

–TheseestimatesweremadebeforeChinaannounced

2023PVinstalls,whichcouldpush2023globalinstallsto~440GWdc.

700

?AnalystsprojectcontinuedincreasesinannualglobalPVinstallations:

600

–390GWdcin2024(+12%y/y)

PVAnnualInstallations(GWdc)

–450GWdcin2025(+14%y/y)

500

–510GWdcin2026(+14%y/y)

–560GWdcin2027(+9%y/y)

400

300

?AmonganalystswhowerecoveredintheSpring2023editionoftheSolarIndustryUpdate,globalprojectionsincreasedinthisedition,e.g.,by2%–31%for2025projections.

200

?Therangeofprojectionsskewshighinthenextcoupleyearsbutverylowtowardtheendoftheprojectionperiod.

–Oneanalystpredictsflatteningofglobaldeployment

100

growth,resultinginaprojection220GWdc(40%)belowthemedianin2027.

0

202120222023E2024P2025P2026P2027P

?Overtheperiodshown,ChinaisprojectedtoinstallthemostPV(39%),followedbyEurope(12%),theUnitedStates(9%),andIndia(6%).

EuropeanUnionEurope(All)U.S.IndiaRestofWorldChina

Notes:E=estimate;P=projection.Bartotalsrepresentmedianglobalprojectionsacrossanalystswhoprovideaglobalprojection.Errorbarsrepresenthighandlowglobal

projections.Regionalbarsegmentsrepresentmediansofallavailableregionalprojections.Whereregionalmediansdonotsumtoglobalmedians,thedifferencesarereconciledby

adjustingtheRestofWorldsegmentssothecorrectglobalmedianvaluesareretained.

Sources:BNEF,4Q2023GlobalPVMarketOutlook,11/22/23;EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2023,3/23;GoldmanSachsEquityResearch,America’sCleanTechnology:Solar,

12/17/23;SolarPowerEurope,GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023–2027,6/23;WoodMackenzie,ThreePredictionsforGlobalSolarin2024,1/24;WoodMackenzie,Q1NREL|5

2024SolarExecutiveBriefing,10/23.

InternationalQ1–Q32023Installations

Installations(GWdc)

25

20

15

10

5

0

Q4

Q1-Q3

20222023

U.S.

161GW

20222023

India

71GW

20222023

Australia

33GW

20222023

Germany

78GW

200

160

120

80

40

0

20222023

China

526GW

*Chinareported87GWofPVinstallationsin2022,129GWinthefirst9monthsof2023,and216.9GWin

2023;however,thesenumbersreflectacombinationofutility-scaleprojectsreportedinWacanddistributed

PVreportedinWdc.

IEA

estimatedChinese2022installationstobe106GW.Chinesevaluesherereflectthe

same2022ILR.

Sources:

AustralianPhotovoltaicInstitute

.Mercom(11/27/23;01/29/24).PVMagazine(

11/24/23

,

12/22/23

);PVTech

(10/20/24

);WoodMackenzie/SEIA:

U.S.SolarMarketInsight:Q42023

.

?Inthefirst9monthsof2023,PV

installationsincreasedsignificantly(y/y)inChina(145%),Germany(102%),andthe

U.S.(42%):

–Chinainstalled~260GWdcofPVpanelsin2023.

–Germanyinstalled14.3GWdcin2023.

–JMKResearchreportedthat10GWac(12.5GWdc)ofPVwasinstalledin

Indiain2023―down28%y/y.

MercomreportedthatIndian

installationswerebeingdelayeddue

totransmissionconnectivityandlong-termaccess.

?AttheendofSeptember,thesecountrieshadcumulativelyinstalled869GWdcofPV.

NREL|6

ConcentratingSolarPower

Update

?InQ12024,Indiaplansonputtingoutatenderforrenewableenergyinwhich

over50%mustcomefromCSP.

ThereisrenewedinterestinCSPinIndiatoprovidealonger-durationsourceofsolarenergy.Overadecadeago,Indiaawarded

470MWofcontractsforCSP,butonly200MWwasbuilt

.Indiaisplanningtoaddressprevious

issues,suchasreducingdevelopmentrisk,increasedDNIdataavailability,andloanscovering70%ofthecosts.Thesizeofthetenderwasnotprovided.

?Recently,therehasbeenaseriesofCSPspinoffcompaniesthatfocusonstand-alonethermalenergystorage,

poweredbyelectricityfromwindandsolartoprovidemorecost-competitivelong-termthermalenergystorageforindustrialprocessheat.Recentcompaniesinclude

Malta,Heatrix,Rondo,andHeatcube

.Heatcubehas

designedaprocesswithsaltsthatsolidifyatlowertemperaturesthantraditionalCSP,whichallowsthemtouselessexpensivesteelfortheirtanks.

?InDecember,DEWAinauguratedits

700-MWCSPplant(600-MWtrough;100-MWtower)

.Thefacilityalsoincludes250MWofPVand5.9GWhofthermalenergystoragecapacity.

?InOctober2023,GlassPointannounceditwillpartnerwiththeMinistryofInvestmentofSaudiArabiato

builda

solarmanufacturingplanttomass-produceitssolarsteamtechnology

.Atfullcapacity,thefactorywillannuallyproducetechnologytogenerate5,000tonsofsolarsteam.

NREL|7

Agenda

1

GlobalSolarDeployment

2

U.S.PVDeployment

3

PVSystemPricing

4

GlobalManufacturing

5

ComponentPricing

6

U.S.PVImports

7

PVWasteandToxicity

?ThoughCaliforniaresidentialinstallationswereupthroughthefirst9monthsof2023,likelycausedbyaspikein

interconnectionapplicationsintheleaduptoApril15

changefromCANEM2.0to3.0,interconnection

applicationshavesinceplummetedwellbelowhistoricallevels.

?AccordingtoEIAdata,theUnitedStatesinstalled15.8GWacofPVinthefirst9monthsof2023—arecord—up31%y/y(SEIAreported19.3GWdc).

?EIAprojectsthepercentageofU.S.electriccapacity

additionsfromsolarwillgrowfrom46%in2022(18GWac)to54%in2023(31GWac),63%in2024(44GWac),and71%in2025(51GWac).

–Otheranalysts’projectionsarelower,withamedianvalueof33GWdcin2023,growingto36GWdcin2024and40GWdcin2025.

?TheUnitedStatesinstalledapproximately15.1GWh(4.8

GWac)ofenergystorageontotheelectricgridinthefirst9monthsof2023,+40%(+32%)y/y,asaresultofgrowthin

NREL|8

allsectors.

States:Q3–Q42023Updates

Mapshowsthenumberofmitigationactions(reducinggreenhousegasemissionsorremovingthemfromtheatmosphere)takenbystates,asreportedintheFifthNationalClimateAssessment.Citiesandtribal

entitieshavealsotakenactions.Thecirclesidentifythe18states(plusWashington,DC)with100%cleanorrenewableenergycommitments.

Michigancommittedto100%cleanelectricity

by2040,2.5GWofstorageby2030,highercapsondistributedPV,andmore.Thestateisalso

offeringcleanenergydeploymentgrants.

MinnesotaincreasedtheshareofPV

installationincentivesgoingtoincome-qualifiedcustomersfrom30%to50%.

TheWashington,DCmetroareatargeted

250,000rooftopPVsystemsby2030,equivalenttoPVon24%ofsingle-familyhomes.

NewYorkannouncedinvestmentsin1.5GWof

PVplus4.7GWofotherrenewables,the

largest-everstateinvestmentinrenewableenergy,whichwillmeet12%ofelectricitydemand.

CaliforniapassedlawspromotingPV,battery,andtransmissiondeploymentalonghighways

100%cleanenergystd.

andacceleratingdistributiongridimprovements.

Sources:CanaryMedia

(11/20/23

);LBNL,

U.S.StateRenewablesPortfolio&CleanElectricityStandards:2023StatusUpdate

(6/2023);MinnesotaReformer(

11/6/23

);PVNREL|9

Magazine(

10/24/23

,

11/27/23

);PVTech

(11/30/23

);SolarPowerWorld

(10/9/23

,

11/28/23

);U.S.Government,

FifthNationalClimateAssessment

(2023).

States:2023Year-in-Review

NetMeteringandDistributedGenerationCompensationPoliciesasofDecember2023

TopStateDistributedPVPolicyTrendsof2023

?

Netbillingtariffs

?

?

Incentivesforlow-tomoderate-incomecustomersTime-varyingPV-compensationrates

?

Lackofnewutility-proposed/regulator-acceptedfeesonPVcustomers

?

Expandedandredesignedstatecommunitysolarprograms

?

Requiredsitingspecificationsforcommunitysolarprojects

?

HighersystemsizeandaggregatecapacitylimitsforPVprograms

?

Requiredorallowedapplicationofnetexcessgeneration

creditstolow-incomecustomeraccounts

?

TariffsdesignedtoencouragePVplusstorage

?

Utility-initiated(notstate-initiated)proposalsfornet-meteringsuccessortariffs.

NREL|10

Source:NorthCarolinaCleanEnergyTechnologyCenter

,The50StatesofSolar:2023PolicyReviewandQ42023QuarterlyReport

,January2024.Mapreproducedwithpermission.

GlobalResidentialPV+Storage(BNEF)

?Attheendof2023,approximately15GW/34GWhofglobal

2023Residentialbatterytosolarattachmentrates,bycountry(%)

residentialbatterystoragecapacityhadbeeninstalled,88%ofwhichwaslocatedinfivecountries:Germany,Italy,Japan,theU.S.,andAustralia.

GermanyItaly

EuropeanaverageAustraliaUS

?GrowthinthesemarketsoccurredmostlyduetoanincreaseinstoragesubsidiescoincidingwithadecreaseinPVexporttariffs(andoftenhighretailrates).

–GermanyandItalyhaveprovidedincentivesbetween

30%and50%forthecostofstoragewhiledecreasingPVexportratestothepriceofwholesalepower.The

0%20%40%60%80%100%

incentiveshavescaledback,butselfconsumptionisstillaleadingdriver($0.30/kWhvs.$0.05/kWh).

?Chinahasarelativelysmallresidentialbatterymarket,

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Residentialbatterystorageannualadditions,bycountry(GWh)

20192020202120222023

Others

AustraliaJapan

US

Italy

Germany

particularlygivenitshighlevelofproductmanufacturing.Thisisduetolowretailrates,lowconcernforpoweroutages,andlowsubsidies.

?Productsonthemarketarenowlithiumironphosphate

batteries,whicharesaferaswellaslessexpensivethanthepreviouslydominantnickelmanganesecobalt(whichare

denserandthereforebettersuitedforEVs).

?Thevaluechainisevolvingtointegratehardwarecomponentsandsoftware(foraggregationandenergytrading)intoafinalproduct.

NREL|11

Source:BloombergNEF,“ScalingtheResidentialEnergyStorageMarket.”December19,2023.

California’sNEM3.0AffectsDistributedPVInstallations

No.ofResidentialInterconnectionApplications

NEM3.0approved

NEM3.0effective

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

70,000

InterconnectionData:PacificGas&Electric,SouthernCaliforniaEdison

Dataarepreliminary.Applications

receivedbutnotyetapprovedare

notincluded.AsurgeinapplicationsprecedingNEM3.0implementationinApril2023createdanapplicationapprovalbacklog.

0

10,000

JanMarMayJulSepNovJ2021

anMarMayJulSepNovJ2022

anMarMayJulSepNov2023

StandalonePV(approved)PV+storage(approved)StandalonePV(received)PV+storage(received)

?ImplementationofCalifornia’sNetBillingTariff

(i.e.,NEM3.0)rulesonApril15,2023,hasalreadyhadadramaticeffectontheresidentialPV

market:

–RetailexportratesundertheNEM2.0policywerereplacedwithavoided-costrates,

reducingexportcompensationby~75%.

–PreliminarydatashowreceiptofresidentialinterconnectionapplicationsspikingintheleaduptoApril15andthenplummeting.

?Itisunclearatthispointhowmuchofthedropisattributabletoachangein

economicsvs.depletionofsalespipelines.

–TheNEM3.0frameworkwasdesignedto

encouragePV+storage,whichcanreducehowmuchenergygetsexported.Todate,

PV+storageapplicationsarestilldwarfedbypreviousstand-alonePVapplications.

Sources:CaliforniaDistributedGeneration

(11/30/23

);CanaryMedia

(12/1/23

);PVTech

(12/4/23

);SolarPowerWorld

(11/30/23

);UtilityDive

(12/14/23

);WoodMackenzieandSEIA;

USSolarMarketInsight

,Q42023.

NREL|12

California’sNEM3.0Affects

DistributedPVInstallations(cont.)

?Thoughitistooearlytoassessfrominstallationand

applicationdatathetrueimpactofNEM3.0,a

CaliforniaSolar&StorageAssociation(CALSSA)surveysuggeststheimpactswillsignificantlyharmsolar

businesses:

–Respondentsreportedthat17,000solarjobs(22%ofallitssolarjobs)wouldbelostbyendof2023.

–59%ofresidentialPVandstoragecontractors

respondedthattheyanticipatedfurtherlayoffs.

?InDecember2023,aCaliforniaappealscourtdismissedachallengetotheNEM3.0policyfromenvironmentalgroups,whoarguedthatthepolicydoesnotconsider

thesocietalbenefitsofdistributedPVasrequiredbylaw.

?Californiaaccountedforone-thirdofU.S.residentialPVcapacityinstalledin2022.

NREL|13

NewCaliforniaPoliciesReducePV

CompensationFurther

CumulativeCaliforniaPVbySector,Through2023(GWdc)

Residential,

13GW(31%)

Utility-scale,

24GW(54%)

Non-residential,

CaliforniaHousingTypes,2022

Mobilehome,

0.5M(4%)

7GW(15%)*

*Non-residentialincludescommercial,industrial,

agricultural,school,

government,nonprofit,communitysolar.

20ormoreunits,2.0M(14%)

5to19units,1.5M(10%)

2to4units,1.1M(8%)

1-unitdetached,8.4M(57%)

1-unitattached,

1.1M(7%)

?InNovember2023,theCaliforniaPublicUtilities

Commission(CPUC)reducedPVcompensationformultimeterproperties.

–Customerssuchasschools,farms,andshoppingcentersmustsellallelectricityatreducedrateswhilebuyingallelectricityatfullretailrates.

–Multifamilyhousingresidentsstillcanself-

consumePVelectricity,butmultifamilycommonareas(lobbies,garages,andsoon)cannot.

–Residentsenrolledinaffordablehousingprogramsretainexistingrates.

–ThepolicyappliesimmediatelytonewPV

customersandisphasedinover20yearsforexistingcustomers.

?Inaseparatedecision,CPUCreducedcompensationforsingle-familyhomesthathostPV-plus-storage

systemsunderCalifornia’snewNetBillingTariff(i.e.,NEM3.0)bylimitingwhichbillchargescanbeoffsetbyexportingelectricitytothegridduringhigh-valueperiodssuchasearlyevenings.

–Accordingtooneconsultant,thepolicywill

reducecompensationtotypicalPV-plus-storageownersby10%–15%orabout$230peryear.

Sources:CalMatters(

11/16/23

);CanaryMedia

(12/4/23

);PVTech

(11/17/23

);U.S.CensusBureau,

AmericanCommunitySurvey

,2022;WoodMackenzieandSEIA,

USSolarMarketN

REL|14

Insight

,Q42023.

PVandBatteriesHelpReplaceCoalinHawaii

6,000ElectricCapacity,Hawaii

5,000

Capacity(MWac)

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

20162017201820192020202120222023P2024P

Petroleum

UtilityBatteryWind

Coal

UtilityPVBiomass

DistributedBatteryDistributedPV

Geo+Hydro+Other

?The185-MWacKapoleienergystorageplantonOahubeganoperatinginDecember2023.

–IthelpsreplacecapacitylostwhenHawaiiretiredits180-MWaccoalplantin2022,constituting17%ofOahu’speakcapacity.

–Italsoprovidesgridservicesandblack-startcapability.

–Itisestimatedtoreducecurtailmentofrenewablesby69%forthefirst5years.

?Statewide,batterycapacityisprojectedto

increase230%between2022and2024(to860MWac),whilePVcapacityisprojectedtoincrease50%(to1,700MWac).

–Utility-scaleinstallationsaregrowingfastest.

?Hawaii’selectricitymarketandpoliciesarepromotingthisshift.

–RetailelectricityratesarethehighestintheUnitedStates,triplethenationalaverage.

–Thestatetargetis100%cleanelectricityby2045.

–ResidentialPVgrowthslowedafternetmeteringendedin2015.

–Subsequentdistributedenergypolicieshave

promotedself-consumption,gridsupport,anddeploymentofenergystorage.

Sources:CanaryMedia

(1/10/24

);EIA,

ElectricPowerMonthly

,Dec2023;EIA,

HawaiiElectricityProfile2022

,Nov2023;Hawaiian

Electric(accessed1/16/24

);HawaiiPublicUtilitiesNREL|15

Commission

(12/23

);WoodMackenzie,

U.S.EnergyStorageMonitor

,Q42023;WoodMackenzieandSEIA,

USSolarMarketInsight

,Q42023.

U.S.InstallationBreakdownQuarterly:EIA(GWac)

?AccordingtoEIAdata,theUnitedStatesinstalled15.8GWacofPVinthefirst9monthsof2023—arecord—up31%y/y(SEIAreported19.3GWdc).

–Residential(5.1GWac)remainedupsignificantlyYTD,43%y/y,asdidutility-scale(9.4GWac—up32%).Nonresidentialwasdown

?46%ofU.S.PVcapacityinstalledinthefirst9monthswasinTexas,Florida,andCalifornia.

–28statesinstalledmorethan100MWac.

–California’sresidentialmarketkept

growing,Q/Q,throughouttheyear,notyetshowinganyslownesscausedbytheswitchtoNEM3.0.

8

7

QuarterlyPVInstalled(GWac)

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Clickhere

tointeractivelyviewthesedataonTableauPublic.

U.S.PVInstallationsbyMarketSegment

Utility-scaleC&I

Residential

Q1-Q3'23U.S.PVInstallationsbyRegion

(15.8GWac)

Southwest

13%

Texas15%

California20%

9%

Midwest14%

Southeast

12%

Florida13%

Northeast

Other4%

6%(1.2GWac).

Q1Q2Q3Q42017

Q1Q2Q3Q42018

Q1Q2Q3Q42019

Q1Q2Q3Q42020

Q1Q2Q3Q42021

Q1Q2Q3Q42022

Q1Q2Q32023

Note:EIAreportsvaluesinWac,whichisstandardforutilities.ThesolarindustryhastraditionallyreportedinWdc.SeethenextslideforvaluesreportedinWdc.NREL|16

Sources:EIA,“ElectricPowerMonthly,”formsEIA-023,EIA-826,andEIA-861(November2023,February2022,February2019).

Unlikethepreviousslide,thesevaluesare

inGWdc—notGWac.

U.S.InstallationBreakdownQuarterly:SEIA(GWdc)

?WoodMackenzie/SEIAreportsarecordfirst9monthsofPVinstallations,with19.3GWdcinstalledfromQ1toQ32023—anincreaseof42%y/y.

–Theutility-scalesector,up59%from2022y/y,reboundedfromsupplychainissues,assupplierdiversificationandtheCBPreleaseofmoduledetentionshasbroughtmoremodulestowaitingprojectsites.

–Theresidentialsector,up24%y/y,hasbeenboostedbythebacklogofCaliforniaprojectsalesthatqualifiedforNEM2.0gettinginstalledandinterconnected,aswellastheNortheast,wheresaleswereboostedbyretailrateincreases(theNortheastismoreexposestonaturalgaspriceincreases).Thegrowthispartiallyoffsetbyrisinginterestratesthatoccurredin2022,whichcauseddeclinesinsalesvolumesfromloancompaniesinArizona,Texas,andFlorida.

10

QuarterlyPVInstalled(GWdc)

8

6

4

2

0

Sources:

..

USPVInstallationsbyMarketSegment

Utility

NonresidentialPVResidentialPV

Q1Q2Q3Q4

Q1Q2Q3Q4

Q1Q2Q3Q4

Q1Q2Q3Q4

Q1Q2Q3

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

WoodMackenzie/SEIA:

U.S.SolarMarketInsight:Q42023

.

Q1-Q323U.S.PVInstallationsbyRegion

Northeast10%

(19.3GWdc)

NREL|17

Southeast

9%

Florida19%

Midwest12%

Southwest17%

Texas11%

California13%

Other8%

U.S.GenerationCapacityAdditionsbySource:2010–2023and

Planned2023–2025

USGenerationCapacityAdditions(GWac)

70

80

Clickhere

tointeractivelyviewthesedataonTableauPublic.

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Other

Nuclear

NaturalGas(Other)

NaturalGasCTNaturalGasCCBatteries

OSWLBWDPVUPV

71%

BeganoperatingthroughOct.2023

PlannedNov./Dec.2023andfull

2024/2025

?EIAprojectsthepercentageofU.S.electric

capacityadditionsfromsolarwillgrowfrom46%in2022(18GWac)to54%in2023(31GWac),63%in2024(44GWac),and71%in2025(51GWac).

–Startingin2023,batteriesareprojectedtobethe

second-leadingsourceofnewgenerationcapacity,followedbyland-basedandoffshorewind(LBWandOSW).

–Naturalgasisprojectedtoaccountfor16%ofnew

capacityin2023buttodropto4%and8%in2024and2025,respectively.

?From2023to2025,EIAprojectsthatPV,storage,andwindwilladd177GWacofcapacityadditions.

Sources:

EIAForm860M/PreliminaryMonthlyElectricGeneratorInventory

(“Planned”and“Operating”)and

EIAShort-TermEnergyOutlook

Table7e,NREL|18

downloadedOctober6,2023;WoodMackenzieandSEIAUSSolarMarketInsightFullReport2Q2023,Sep2023.

PVAnnualInstallations(GWdc)

AnnualU.S.PVDeployment

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Alaska&

Hawaii

1%

Northwest3%

Fla.

6%Northeast

10%

Southwest13%

Calif.

13%Southeast

13%

Midwest21%

Texas20%

202120222023E2024P2025P2026P2027P

ResidentialC&IUtility-Scale

?AnnualdeploymentofPVintheUnitedStateswasestimatedtohavegrownbyabout55%between

2022and2023,to33GWdc.

?AnalystsprojectcontinuedincreasesinannualU.S.PVinstallations:

–36GWdcin2024(+10%y/y)

–40GWdcin2025(+10%y/y)

–43GWdcin2026(+9%y/y)

–48GWdcin2027(+12%y/y)

?Utility-scalePVdrivesthe2023–2027growth,withthehighestcompoundannualgrowthrate:

–Utility-scale12%

–Commercialandindustrial(C&I)8%

–Residential5%

?Thevariabilityindeploymentprojectionssuggestssignificantupsidepotential.

?Overtheperiodshown,deploymentisgeographicallydiverse,withTexas,California,andFloridaasthetop

statesandconsiderablecapacityinseveralregions.

Notes:E=estimate;P=projection.BarsrepresentmedianU.S.projections.ErrorbarsrepresenthighandlowU.S.projections.WheresectormediansdonotsumtoU.S.

medians,thedifferencesarereconciledbymultiplyingthemedianpercentagecontributionfromeachsectorbythetotalU.S.medianvaluessothecorrecttotalU.S.median

valuesareretained.Piechartshowsprojectedcontributionsfromeachregion,2021–2027.

Sources:BNEF,4Q2023GlobalPVMarketOutlook,11/22/23;EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2023,3/23;GoldmanSachsEquityResearch,America’sCleanTechnology:Solar,NREL|19

12/17/23;SolarPowerEurope,GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027,6/23;WoodMackenzieandSEIA,USSolarMarketInsight,Q42023.

U.S.EnergyStorageInstallationsbyMarketSegment

EnergyStorageInstalled(MWh)

?TheUn