【高盛】英文游戲、媒體與貨幣化交叉領(lǐng)域的行業(yè)趨勢(shì)分析（Roblox深度研究）：美國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)與互動(dòng)娛樂覆蓋范圍

GlobalInvestmentResearch

TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.

FramingtheIndustryTrendsattheIntersectionofGaming,Media&Monetization(RBLXDeepDive)

USInternet&InteractiveEntertainmentCoverageUniverse

May2025

EricSheridan

Goldman,Sachs&Co.

+1

917343-8683

eric.sheridan@

JuliaFein-Ashley

Goldman,Sachs&Co.

+1

212902-5070

julia.fein-ashley@

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveacon?ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html

.Analystsemployedbynon-USaf?liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.

KeyTrendsinVideoGame&Interactive

EntertainmentLandscape(1)

MostExposedCompanies

Majorityofcoverageuniverse

NFLX,SPOT,EA,TTWO,UBI,PLTK,RBLX,DKNG,GENI,WBTN

META,GOOGL,SNAP,PINS,RBLX,

EA,TTWO,UBI,AMZN

AMZN,GOOGL,META,LYFT,UBER,

ABNB,BKNG,EXPE

IndustryTrends

1.TheEvolutionoftheConsumerAILandscape

2.TheEvolutionofInteractiveEntertainmentPlatforms

3.TheTransitionfromSpatialComputingtoMobileComputing(OvertheLong-Term)

4.RegulatoryMatters&ChangedEcosystemDefaultsRemainstheDominantRiskFactortoIndustry

KeyThemesCoveredinReport

EvolutionofMonetizationChannels

UserEngagement&AudienceExpansion

?In-apppurchases

?Advertising

?Ecosystempartnerships&collaborations?Gamingasaformofcontentconsumption

?Broadeningofaudienceanddemographicmixshift

?Interactionsacrossmoresurfacesandplatforms

?Wideningusecasessupportingengagement(e.g.eCommerce,contentofferings)

OtherKeyThemes

?PotentialimpactofAIoncontentcreationandconsumptionhabits

?Regulatorymatters

PublicCompanyValuation

?ValuationframeworksforUS-listedinteractiveentertainmentcompanies

?Keyfinancialattributesforpublicinvestors(compoundedgrowthpotentialandincrementalmargins)

?Roblox(RBLX)casestudy

GlobalInvestmentResearch2

Source:1)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

tat1ExpectGlobalGamingMarkettoExceed$300bnby2028

Weexpecttheglobalgamingmarkettogrowata+5%CAGR(2024-2028)drivenby:

Continuedusergrowth:Acrossallgeographies,withagrowingmixofemergingmarkets(incl.APAC&LatAm)

Increasedengagement:Youngergenerations(GenZ&Millennials)allocatemoretimetogamingcomparedtopriorgenerations

Improvedusermonetization:Emerginginitiativesincluderegionalized/dynamicpricing,advertising,scalingin-app/platformpurchases(e.g.virtualitems),andblurringlinesbetweengaming&commerce

ExpecttheGlobalGamingMarkettoGrowata5%CAGR…

$bn*(1-4)

…AndNorthAmericaReaching$86bn

$bn(1-4)

$350

$300

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$-

GTAVlaunchin2H13COVID$306

$249

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

GlobalGamingIndustry%YoY

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

$105

$90

$75

$60

$45

$30

$15

$-

$86

RedDeadRedemption2

inQ42018

$68

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

NorthAmericaGamingIndustry%YoY

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Source:1)Companydata;2)IDC;3)Newzoo;&4)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Note*:Basedon2024-2028CAGRGlobalInvestmentResearch3

GlobalInvestmentResearch4

Source:1)Newzoo;2)SensorTower;&3)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

IncreasingShareofUsersComingFromEmergingMarkets

Weexpectusergrowthacrossconsole,PC&smartphone,withemergingmarketslikelyoutpacinggrowthratesinmorematureregions(e.g.UCAN&WesternEurope)

Continuedgrowthinlargeemergingmarkets(e.g.Brazil,India,etc.)acrossmobileandotherplatforms(incl.Roblox)asaccessibilityimproves

Keydrivers:Upgradedinternetinfrastructure,deviceaffordability,localizedcontent

Emergingmarketusermomentumtopersistasconsumptionhabitsshiftawayfromtraditionalentertainmentchannels

ExpectGlobalGamingMAUstoExceed3bnin2028…

NumberofGlobalGamersbyPlatform(mm)(1,3)

3,082

3,500

2,992

2,820

3,000

2,738

2,905

2,658

'24-'28CAGR

2,500

2,000

1,500

Console:+4%

PC:+5%

7978378799239691,017

Mobile:+3%

1,000

500

0

307319332345359373

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

ConsoleGamersaUniqueOnlinePCGamersaSnartphone&TabletGamers

…WithaRisingShareComingFromEmergingMarkets

RobloxMobileMAU%CountryShare(2,3)

100%

88%

75%

63%

50%

38%

25%

13%

0%

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025YTD

USBRIDMXRUPHVNINTHGBRoW

VideoGameUsersareAgingup

Videogameengagementacrossagecohortsremainsstrong,albeitwitharising%oftimespentfromyoungergenerations

VideogameusersinNorthAmericahavecontinuedtoageupoverthelastdecadegiventheincreasedaccessibilityofgamingdevices

1990s–late2000s:MillennialsfirstgenerationwithchildhoodaccesstoPCGaming(desktop)&theInternet

Late2000s:GenZ&Alphafirstgenerationswithaccesstomobiledevicesduringchildhood

Expecttotaltimespent(and%ofuserleisuretime)onvideogamestocontinuetoriseasyoungergenerationsgravitatetowardmodernentertainment(e.g.streaming,socialnetworks,videogames)

MoreMatureMarketsareSeeingUsersageup…

AverageageofNorthAmericaVideoGamePlayer,2024(1,3)

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

AverageAge

36

AverageAge

29

46%47%

34%

29%

24%

17%

20042024Under1818-5050+

…WhileEngagementAcrossAgeCohortsRemainsStrong*

%LeisureTimeSpentperWeekperEntertainmentPlatform,2023(2,3)

105%

90%

75%

60%

45%

30%

15%

0%

22%19%18%14%11%

GenAlphaGenZMillennialsGenXBabyBoomers

TraditionalEntertainmentStreamingSocialNetworksVideoGames

Note*:Representstimeoutsidework.Traditionalentertainmentincl.reading,listeningtomusic/radio/podcasts&watchingbroadcastTVGlobalInvestmentResearch5Source:1)ESA;2)Newzoo;&3)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch6

Source:1)SensorTowerNetflixGTASanAndreasMAUs;2)SullyGnome;&3)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

IncreasedUserEngagementWithKeyIPThroughNewVerticals&Channels

Usersareinteractingwithgamesacrossawiderarrayofchannels;gameplayandcontentconsumptionareblending(viewership)

Gameplay:Publisherscontinuetoexpandaccesspointstokey/legacyIPtomoreusers

Roblox:(2004)Initialweb-basedlaunch(2014)Androidlaunch(2015)XboxOnelaunch(2016)VR

Take-TwoGTA:(2013)GTAVlaunchonPS3&Xbox360(2014)PS4&XboxOne(2015)WindowsPC

(2022)PS5&XboxSeriesX/S.LicensedGTAcontenttoNetflix(gamesavailableonmobiledevices)

Contentconsumption:Twitch,YouTube&socialmediacontinuetogrowaskeydestinationforgamingcontent(bothintermsofthenumberofviewers&totalhoursengaged)

GrowingUserEngagementforIPFromNewChannels…

GTAVSanAndreasMobileMAUs(mm)(1,3)

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

16

15

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

16

15

14

12

13

11

11

10

9

10

9

7

7

8

AndroidiPadiPhone

…WithRisingGameplayViewershipforKeyFranchises

TotalHoursWatchedofGTAVonTwitch(mm)(2,3)

2,100

1,800

1,500

1,200

900

600

300

0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

1,875

1,439

1,414

1,335

824

579

122147

HoursWatched%YoY

300%

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

GlobalInvestmentResearch7

Source:1)Companydata;&2)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

MoreLeverstoMonetizeLarge&GrowingAudiences

Videogamebookingsarecorrelatedwithtotaluserengagementandtimespent

Expectemergingmonetizationinitiativestoprovideadditionaltailwind:

Newmonetizationinitiatives:Launch/scalingofadvertisingbusiness,improvedregionalmonetizationthroughregionalpricing&priceoptimizations

Partnershipsexpandopportunityset:Continuedblurringofthelinesbetweengaming&eCommerce:brandssellingmixtureofphysicalanddigitalitemsthroughgamingexperiences

ExpectRobloxBookingstoOutpaceEngagement…

%YoYGrowthofRobloxBookings&TotalHoursEngaged(1,2)

…DrivenbyImprovedMonetization(OutsideUCAN)

RobloxTotalRevenue($mm)&%RevenueDerivedFromUCAN(1,2)

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2019-2024

Correlation:99%

45%

35%

24%

22%

22%

18%

22%

22%

20%

15%

23%

19%

13%

17%

22%19%

12%

5%

20212022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029ETotalHrsEngagedBookings

$10,000

$8,750

$7,500

$6,250

$5,000

$3,750

$2,500

$1,250

$-

$9,311

$7,856

62%

$4,369

$6,536

$5,34160%

60%

59%

58%

20242025E2026E2027E2028ETotalRevenue%UCAN

64%

63%

62%

61%

60%

59%

58%

57%

GlobalInvestmentResearch8

Source:1)Companydata;2)eMarketer;&3)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

AdvertisingProvidesaChannelTowardMonetizingUsers

Weviewadvertisingtobeakeyunlockforplatformstomonetizefreeusers

Videogamesprovideaparticularlyattractiveopportunityacrossfreeusers(andexistingpayers):

Abilitytoincentiveuserstoengagewithreward-basedads:Reward-basedadshistoricallyhavehigher

completionrates(>80%)atselectgamingcompanies(incl.Roblox&Niantic),withhighersatisfactionratesrelativetotypicalads

Accesstokeyuserdemographics:High-engagementmediumwithwidereachofaudiences(incl.ages13-18)withahighpropensitytospend

AnOverviewofKeyAdvertisingProductsOfferedonRoblox

RewardedAdsExpectedtoRollOutinComingWeeks(1,3)

AdvertisingProduct

ImmersiveAds

AdLocation

Immersiveadunitsplacedwithinpublisherexperience

VideoAds

Uptoa30secondvideo(eitherclick-to-playorautoplay)-incl.rewardedads

ImageAds

Static,non-clickableimage

PortalAds

Static,non-clickableimagewithaportaltoteleportuserintoanadvertiser'sexperience

SearchAds

Searchresultsforexperiences

SponsoredExperiences

WithinSponsoredcategoryonhomepage

SponsoredItems

Withinsponsoredcategoryonanyitem'smaindetailspage(Robloxwebsite)&"RecommendedItemsforYou"page

RewardBasedAdsRemainsanAttractiveOpptyinGaming

%ofGamersSurveyed,2025(2,3)

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

71%

44%

41%

15%

Noticedadswhile

playing

Havepositive

feelingsaboutads

ingames

Findin-gameadsacceptablewhentheyofferrewards

Encountered

reward-basedads

GlobalInvestmentResearch9

Source:1)Companydata;&2)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

RegionalizedPricingOpportunityinEmergingMarkets

HeavyhistoricaltilttowardsUCAN/WesternEurope;Expandingglobalopportunitysetgloballyasplatformstoleanfurtherintomonetizinginternationalusersthrough:

Regionalizedpricing:Lowerpricepointoptionsfor(relativetoUCAN)emergingmarketscouldimprovemonetizationinLatAm/APAC

Priceoptimizations&dynamicpricing:Optimizations&dynamicpricingcouldimprovetheconnectionbetweensupplyanddemandoutsideofcoremarketswheremonetizationeffortshavelagged

Technologicalimprovements&AIlikelytoaccelerateregionalizedpricing&optimizationsgoingforward

RegionsOutsideofUCANRemainUndermonetized

RobloxRegionalBookings$perHourEngaged(1,2)

$0.20

$0.15

$0.10

$0.05

$-

1Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25UCANEuropeAPACRoWOverall

RegionalPricingAlternativestoImproveMonetization

NetflixEmergingMarketIncrementalRevenue($mm)&SubAdds(mm)(1,2)

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

AdTierAddedQ4'22

2018201920202021202220232024

$1,050

$900

$750

$600

$450

$300

$150

$-

LatAmNetAddsAPACNetAddsLatAmIncr.$AddedAPACIncr.$Added

RegionalizedPricingOpportunityinEmergingMarkets(Cont.)

Earlypriceoptimizations&dynamicpricingtodriveimprovedinternationalmonetizationinthefuture

Whileusergrowthinemergingregions(e.g.LatAm,APAC)hasdrivenameaningfulportionofusergrowthinrecentyears,monetizationefforts&initiativeshavelargelylagged

Historically,therehasbeenanimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandinemergingmarkets(givenlowerdiscretionaryincome&lowerleisuretimeinlowerGDPpercapitamarkets)(2)

InternationalmonetizationopportunityhighlightedbyRoblox(frompriceoptimizations)couldmeaningfullyimprovebookings/revenueperusereconomicsintheyearstocome

EarlyResultsFromPriceOptimizationsarePromising…

RobloxOverall/MedianUplift%FromCountrySpecificOptimizations*(1,3)

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

52%

26%26%

17%

4%

MexicoBrazilPhilippinesMedianOverall

EarningsLift

…WeExpectThistoDriveIntl.MonetizationGrowth

Roblox$ABPDAU(1,3)

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$20

$10

$-

$59

$53

$48

$44

$39

$26

$25

$24

$20

$22$22

$19

$18

$16$16

20242025E2026E2027E2028EEuropeAPACRoW

Source:1)Companydata;2)VisaBusinessandEconomicsInsights;&3)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Note*:RepresentsmedianoftestcountriesGlobalInvestmentResearch10

BlurringoftheLinesBetweenVirtual&PhysicalWorldtoDriveNewExperiences

Virtual&physicalworldsblendasonlinesocialinteractionshappenacrossmorediffusesetofplatforms

Expectagreaternumberofvirtualexperiencestobecomedirectlymonetizable

InterplaywithvirtualrealityandMetaverselong-termthemes;usecasesinclude:

Fashion&eCommerce:RisingnumberofcompanypartnershipsineCommerce&Fashion(e.g.Gucci,Walmart,Shopify)allowinguserstodirectlypurchasephysicalitemsinthevirtualworld

Tourism&experiences:Additionalunlockforconcerts/entertainmentindustrytoreachnewusers&increaseawarenessofartists/events(e.g.TravisScott,ArianaGrande,virtualmuseumvisits,etc.)

IncreasingNumberofCross-SectorUserExperiences

%ofUsersEngaginginSpecificActivitiesOverLTM,2025*(1,3)

Streamedonlinecontent

InteractedsociallywithfriendsShoppedforphysicalproducts

Triedvirtualtravelortourismexperiences

Purchasedvirtualskin,clothesor

accessoriesforgamingavatar

47%34%

22%

22%

14%Monetizableexperiences

0%10%20%30%40%50%

WeseeaMeaningfulOpportunityinVirtualSpending

%ofRobloxUsersSurveyed,2023**(2,3)

Comfortablebudgeting<$10monthlyfor

virtuallooks

Stylingavatarismoreimportanttothem

thantheirphysicalstyle

Physicalstylehasbeeninspiredbytheir

avatarsstyle

52%56%

84%

Likelihoodofuser:

Try/wearapopular

brand'sitemon

theiravatars,will

considerbrand

inreallife

Very/extremely

Somewhat

50%

84%

Note*:Withinuserexperiencesinthemetaverse–continuedblurringofthelinesbetweeneComm/travel/entertainment

Note**:WeseethedirectmostlinkwitheCommgiventhecontinuedblurringofthelinesbetweenphysical&virtualpersonalities/usersSource:1)YouGov;2)Companydata;&3)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch11

Expect+LSD-MSD%IAPRevenueGrowth

Mobilein-apppurchaserevenueshavesloweddownmeaningfullypost-IDFA,withmanyappsseeingdecreaseduserengagementandelevatedchurn

Industryshifttowardsprivacydrivingmixshiftsinmobilegaminggenrestowardshyper/hybrid-casual

Hyper/hybrid-casualmainlyadvertising-drivenbutwiththecategoryseeingsolidIAPrevenuegrowth(1)

ExpecttheoverallmobileIAPenvironmenttogrowata3%2024-2028CAGR

Hyper/Hybrid-CasualGamesGainingShareSinceIDFA…MobileGameGenreIAPYoY%Growth(1,4)

…DrivingaMixShiftTowardsAd-BasedMonetization

GlobalMobileGamingAddressableMarket($bn),%YoYGrowth(2-4)

275%

225%

175%

125%

75%

25%

-25%

-75%

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

Jul-21

Jan-22

Jul-22

Jan-23

Jul-23

Jan-24

Jul-24

Jan-25

TotalHyperCasualHybridCasualCasualMid-core

$280

$240

$200

$160

$120

$80

$40

$-

$200

$163

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

IAPsIn-GameAdvertising--%YoY(Total)

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Note*:ChartexcludesmobileexclusiveaccessproductmodelsGlobalInvestmentResearch12

Source:1)SensorTower;2)IDC;3)Newzoo;&4)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

HowDoesGaming&InteractiveEntertainment

PerformDuringEconomicDownturns?

Entertainmentisoneofthelastareasofconsumerspendtogetcutduringperiodsofelevatedinflationandrecessionsdueto:

Lowcostperconsumptionhour:Videogames&streamingmedia(e.g.Netflix,Spotify)havealowercostperengagedhourthanseveralotherformsofentertainment;consumersmorelikelytopull-backonotherexperiences(e.g.gymsubscriptions,restaurantspend&takeout)

Usersgravitatetowardentertainmentduringperiodsofeconomicvolatility:Entertainmentspendrisesas%oftotalexpendituresinperiodswhereindividualshavemorefreetime(incl.highcorrelationwithunemployment)

EntertainmentSpendPerformsWellDuringRecessions…

USEntertainmentas%ofTotalAnnualExpenditures*(1,3)

5.7%

5.5%

5.3%

5.1%

4.9%

4.7%

4.5%

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

GFC

—0—Entertainment-%oftotalannualexpAvg1996-2019(excl.2007-09)

…WithLessSpendPullbackDuringInflationaryPeriods

ConsumerSurveyonAreasofReducedSpend-T6MOctober2022(2-3)

MusicorpodcaststreamingTVorfilmstreamingTravel

EntertainmentTripsGas

Allsubscriptionservices

Clothing,shoes,andaccessoriesTakeoutordelivery GroceriesRestaurantDining

10%

18%

29%

30%

30%

31%

40%

42%

44%45%

0%10%20%30%40%50%

Note*:Entertainmentincludesfeesandadmissions;televisions,radios,andsoundequipment;pets,toys,andplaygroundequipment;andotherentertainmentsupplies.**Incl.onlymobileapptimespent

Source:1)BLS;2)NationalResearchGroup;&3)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch13

GlobalInvestmentResearch14

Source:1)Companydata;&2)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

MonthlySubscriptionPriceAcrossMediaTypes(1,2)

$17.99

VideoStreamingSubscriptions

BookSubscriptions

GamingSubscriptionsMusicSubscriptions

$16.99

$15.99

$14.95

$13.99

$11.99$11.99

$11.99

$10.99$10.99$10.99

$9.99

$9.99$9.99

$8.99

$7.99$7.99

$6.99

PlaystationPlus

XboxGamesPass

AppleArcade

GooglePlayPass

Deezer

Spotify

YouTube

AppleMusic

Netflix

HBOMax

Disney(Premium)

YouTubePremium

AppleTV+

AmazonPrimeVideo

Hulu+

Peacock

Audible

Scribd

KindleUnlimited

$4.99

GlobalInvestmentResearch15

Source:1)Companydata;&2)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

ExpectAItoDriveImprovementsinContent

Moderation,Creation&OverallEfficiencies(1,2)

Ingaming&contentcreation,weexpectGenerativeAItodrive:

Contentcreation:Enhancedcreationcapabilities&productivity,contributingtofurtherdemocratizationofthecontentcreationprocess.Assistcreatorsindevelopmentofcontentdrivingincreasedproductivity,reducing

productioncosts&resultinginmeaningfulriseincontent

Content/datalicensing:Creatorsofferedpayoutsforaccesstounusedcontent(incl.animations,videofootage,etc.)

Improvedmonetization:Newinitiatives&strategiesincludingAIcharacters/influencers,voicetechnology&virtualgoodsDrivecostefficienciesthroughcontentmoderationcapabilities

Operationalefficiencies:Assistindrivingoperationalefficienciesthroughreducingspend/timespentonvarioustasks(incl.contentmoderation&coding)

KeydebatessurroundingtheuseofAIinclude:

Contentmoderation:DespitemanyLLMshavingbuilt-incontentmoderationsystems,usersoftenfindwaysaroundthesefilterstoproduceharmfulcontent(continuedworkinprogresstoimprovecapabilities)

Misinformation&hallucinations:Concernsaroundoverallqualityofinformationbeingdisseminated&accuracyofanswersorimplicitbiasesinageneratedresponse

Copyrightinfringement:ContentoriginalityisoftenconcerningforcreativeprofessionalsgiventhethreatAIcouldpose

Dataprivacy:AIplatformsarebuiltonLLMs,whicharetrainedbylargevolumesofdatacollected.Userconcernsarounddatamonetization&maintainingcompliancewithgovernmentregulations

Ethicalissues:concernsthatarisefromGenerativeAItools,potentialissuessurroundingplagiarism,joblossesandthelossofcompensation

Regulatorymatters:LittletonoprecedentsurroundingGenAI&use–willlikelytaketimeforregulatoryenvironment&legalbodies&developviews,regulations&frameworkssurroundingtools

16

CaseStudy:Roblox(RBLX)BusinessModel

Fundamentals,KeyInvestorDebates&Valuation

GlobalInvestmentResearch17

Source:1)Companydata;&2)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

CaseStudy:Roblox

DriversofFinancialPerformance

Robloxhasasimilarfinancialprofiletootherhigh-growthscaledmedia/subscriptioncompanies

Companieswithsimilargrowthprofiles&growingcontributionfromemergingmarketsinclude:

Duolingo(gamificationofeducation);Netflix(videostreaming&gaming);&Spotify(musicstreaming&podcasts)

Keyfinancialattributesinclude:

Rapidusergrowthwithcontributionsbothfrommorematuremarkets&emergingregionswithrisingengagement

Marginexpansiononhighincrementalprofitability

LowcapitalintensityenablingattractiveFreeCashFlow(FCF)conversion

RobloxHasSustainedDoubleDigit%UserGrowth…

2022–2024UserCAGRsatSelectedCompanies(1,2)

…PrimarilyDrivenbyAPAC/RoW–ExpectTrendtoContinue

RobloxAnnualDAUNetAdds(mm)(1,2)

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

59%

50%

41%

DuolingoDAUs

DuolingoPaidSubs

DuolingoMAUs

RobloxDAUs

SpotifyAdSupported

RobloxPaidSubs

NetflixPaidStreaming

Subs

SpotifyPremiumSubs

14%13%

22%20%19%

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

6.3

'22-'24CAGR

5.8

UCAN:+17%

EU:+18%

5.04.4

APAC:+27%

4.6

RoW:+25%

2.9

2.8

2.2

2.12.2

2.3

1.1

UCANEuropeAPACRoW

2022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E

Note*:Represents2024-2029CAGR

GlobalInvestmentResearch18

Note**:Adj.EBITDAmarginsas%oftotalbookings

Source:1)Companydata;&2)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

CaseStudy:Roblox

DriversofFinancialPerformance(Cont.)

Forecast+20%Bookingsgrowth(2024-2029CAGR)reflectingcontinuedusermomentum,growingengagement&scalingofmonetizationinitiatives

Risingincrementalmargintrajectory(towards>40%)given:

(+)Grossmarginexpansion:drivenbyshiftsinconsumerbehavior,withmoreRobuxbeingpurchasedthroughchannelswithoutIAPfees(e.g.website&giftcards)

(+)OperationalefficienciesdrivenbyAI:leveragefrominfra-trust&safety(ITS)&slowingratesofheadcountinvestments

(-)Ecosystemcosts:expectdeleveragefromdeveloperexchangefeestosupportcreatorecosystem(andnewcontent)

WeExpectRobloxtoGrowBookingsata+20%CAGR…RobloxTotalBookings($mm)&YoY%Growth*(1,2)

…andAdj.EBITDAata+32%CAGRWithSolidIncr.Margins

RobloxAdj.EBITDA($mm)&IncrementalAdj.EBITDA%Margin**(1,2)

$12,250

$10,500

$8,750

$7,000

$5,250

$3,500

$1,750

$-

$10,905$9,311

$7,856$6,536

$5,341

$4,369$3,521

202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E

Bookings-0-%YoY

32%

27%

23%

18%

14%

9%

5%

0%

$3,600

$3,000

$2,400

$1,800

$1,200

$600

$-

$3,195

$2,528

42%39%

44%

36%

$1,961

$1,487

33%30%

12%

$432

$1,094$807

202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029EAdj.EBITDAIncr.Margin%

56%

48%

40%

32%

24%

16%

8%

0%

Source:1)Companydata;&2)GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Note*:FCFconversionrepresentsfreecashflowasa%ofAdj.EBITDAGlobalInvestmentResearch19

CaseStudy:Roblox

Bull-BearInvestorDebates

Bulls:

Topline:Differentiatedcompoundedbookingsgrowthprofileremainsundermodeled,differentiatedplatformscaleenablesarrayofcalloptionadjacenciesthatextendgrowthrunway

Profitability:IncrementalAdj.EBITDAmarginssupportssolidFCFgenerationwithseveralareasofmarginupside

Bears:

Topline:Lowvisibilityonsustainabilityofbookingsgrowthalgorithmonamulti-yearview

Valuation:Opportunityalreadyreflectedinpremiumvaluationwhichcreatesunfavorablerisk-reward,particularlyexpensiveonGAAPfinancials(SBCadjusted)

AttractiveCompoundedFCFGenerationProfile…

RobloxFreeCashFlow($mm)&Conversion%*(1,2)

…AlbeitLesssoAdjustedforShare-BasedComp(SBC)RobloxFreeCashFlow,SBC&FCF–SBC($mm)(1,2)

$3,500

$3,000

$2,500

$2,000

$1,500

$1,000

$500

$-

$2,965

88%

85%

90%93%

82%

79%