版權(quán)說明：本文檔由用戶提供并上傳，收益歸屬內(nèi)容提供方，若內(nèi)容存在侵權(quán)，請進(jìn)行舉報或認(rèn)領(lǐng)
文檔簡介
CitiResearch
11June2025
EuropeanBanks
EuropeanBanks
AnUnprecedentedRallyDespiteRateCuts&TariffUncertainty
AndrewCoombsAC
EuropeanBanks
andrew.coombs@
+442079864053
RajChoudhary
EuropeanBanks
raj.choudhary@
+912242775083
SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations
CitiResearchisadivisionofCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.(the"Firm"),whichdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Certainproducts(notinconsistentwiththeauthor’spublishedresearch)areavailableonlyon
31-Dec-24
05-Jan-25
10-Jan-25
15-Jan-25
20-Jan-25
25-Jan-25
30-Jan-25
04-Feb-25
09-Feb-25
14-Feb-25
19-Feb-25
24-Feb-25
01-Mar-25
06-Mar-25
11-Mar-25
16-Mar-25
21-Mar-25
26-Mar-25
31-Mar-25
05-Apr-25
10-Apr-25
15-Apr-25
20-Apr-25
25-Apr-25
30-Apr-25
05-May-25
10-May-25
15-May-25
20-May-25
25-May-25
30-May-25
04-Jun-25
09-Jun-25
Dec-2024=100
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Pre
Tariff
Post
Tariff
ReltoEuropeReltoUSBanks
AnUnprecedentedRallyPre&PostLiberationDay
lEuropeanBanksAbsolutePerformancelEuropeanBanksRelativePricePerformance
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
31-Dec-24
05-Jan-25
10-Jan-25
15-Jan-25
20-Jan-25
25-Jan-25
30-Jan-25
04-Feb-25
09-Feb-25
14-Feb-25
19-Feb-25
24-Feb-25
01-Mar-25
06-Mar-25
11-Mar-25
16-Mar-25
21-Mar-25
26-Mar-25
31-Mar-25
05-Apr-25
10-Apr-25
15-Apr-25
20-Apr-25
25-Apr-25
30-Apr-25
05-May-25
10-May-25
15-May-25
20-May-25
25-May-25
30-May-25
04-Jun-25
09-Jun-25
Pre
Post
Dec-2024=100
Tariff
Tariff
EuropeEuropeanBanks
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,DataStream
EuropeanBanksvsMag-7PriceandTSR
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,DataStream
EuropeanBanks&OverallFinancialsas%ofEuropeanIndexMarketCapitalization
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
Dec-21=100
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
RelPricePerformance
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-24
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
RelTotalReturnPerformance
Mar-25
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
Note:TSRbasedontotalshareholderreturn,soinclusiveofdividendreinvestment.
Source:CitiResearch,Bloomberg,DataStream
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
22.7%
20.3%
18.0%
16.8%
15.8%
11.5%
7.9%
9.6%8.3%
7.2%
20212022202320242025YTD
Banks%ofEuropeFinancials%ofEurope
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
Note:BasedonMSCIEuropeBanks(32constituents)andMSCIEuropeFinancials(83constituents)as%MSCIEuropemarketcapitalization(414constituents).
Source:CitiResearch,DataStream
citl
2
Longpositioningcrowdingrank
Banks&InsuranceMostLoved
EuropeanBanks-PositioningCrowdingFactor
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Consensuallongs2-waydebate
Insurance
Insurance
Banks
Energy
IT
IT
Banks
EnergyIndustrials
InriislsConsDiscrMaterials
DivFins
MaterialsUtilities
ConsDiscr
UtilitiesHealthCare
HealthCare
CommServices
ConsStaples
Consensualshorts
ConsStaplesRealEstate
CommServices
RealEstate
20%30%40%50%60%70%
Shortpositioningcrowdingfactorrank
Current7-Jan-25
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch
citl
3
SwingingBetweenCheapandFairValue
EuropeanBanksImpliedCostofEquityRemainsCloseToTheLong-RunAverage
EuropeanBanksP/TBMultipleNowSeemsConsistentWithRoTEOutlook(1Yr-Forward)
20%
16%
12%
8%
4%
3.00x
2.50x
2.00x
1.50x
1.00x
0.50x
0.00x
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
P/TBVRoTE(rhs)
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
Jun-25
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
Jan-18
Jan-20
Jan-22
Jan-24
---/+1SD
Mean
ImpliedCoE
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:dataCentral,CitiResearch
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:dataCentral,CitiResearch
citl
4
FiscalStimulusSupportvsTariffsShock
EurSectorBeta/CorreltoGermanYieldCurveEuropeanSectorPerf6MAfterPMITroughs(loc)
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
BasicResources
Energy
Banks
Insurance
Travel&Leisure
FinancialServices
Construction
Chemicals
AutosandParts
Telecoms
Media
Industrials
HealthCare
PersonalCare
Food,Bev,Tobacco
LuxuryGoods
Retail
Utilities
Technology
RealEstate
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
BetatoGermanYieldCurve(10Y-2Y)CorrtoGermanYieldCurve(10Y-2Y),RHS
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,DataStream
50
40
30
20
10
0
Banks
BasicResources
Const.&Mats
Ind.Goods&Svs
Travel&Leisure
Technology
Autos&Parts
Fin.Services
ConsumerPrd
Chemicals
Insurance
RealEstate
Media
Energy
Retailers
Food,Bev,Tobac
Drug/GrocStores
HealthCare
Utilities
Telecom
Market
-10
Avgperf
YTDperfYTDperfto2Apr
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,DataStream
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2-0.4
-0.6
EuropeanSectorsSensitivitytoIFO
BetaCorrelation
Banks
Autos
Retailing
ConsumerServ
Metals&Mining
Insurance
CapitalGoods
Transportation
Energy
DivFin
ConsDurables
RealEstate
Semiconductors
Media
Chemicals
TechHardware
Telecoms
Software
Utilities
HealthCareEq
CommercServices
FoodBevs
Household
Food&Staples
Pharma&Biotech
EuropeanSectors
Italy
Germany
Spain
France
Netherlands
Sweden
UK
Switzerland
Countries
USReciprocalTariffsInitiallyProposed(%)
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
Source:CitiResearch,DataStream
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
Note:From9Aprila90-daypausewasplacedonalltariffproposalsabove10%exceptforChina,whilestillmaintaininga10%baselinetariffonall
importsand25%onautos,steel&aluminum.OnChinatariffshaverisento145%.
Source:CitiResearch,BureauoftheCensus,HaverAnalytics
citl
5
BullCase:StimulusDrivesYieldCurveSteepening
EuropeanBanksP/TBVvsUSYieldCurve
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:dataCentral,CitiResearch,DataStream
EuropeanBanksP/TBVvsEuroYieldCurve
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:dataCentral,CitiResearch,DataStream
citl
6
BearCase:TariffUncertaintyDrivesGlobalContraction
citl
7
LoanandDepositGrowth
Europe&UKYoYLoanVolumesEurope&UKYoYDepositVolumes
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
Jan-11
Nov-11
Sep-12
Jul-13
May-14
Mar-15
Jan-16
Nov-16
Sep-17
Jul-18
May-19
Mar-20
Jan-21
Nov-21
Sep-22
Jul-23
May-24
Mar-25
EuroAreaGermanySpainFranceItalyUK
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
Jan-11
Nov-11
Sep-12
Jul-13
May-14
Mar-15
Jan-16
Nov-16
Sep-17
Jul-18
May-19
Mar-20
Jan-21
Nov-21
Sep-22
Jul-23
May-24
Mar-25
EuroAreaGermanySpainFranceItalyUK
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,BoE,HaverAnalytics
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,BoE,HaverAnalytics
citl
8
ConsensusEarningsUpgrades(SoFar)…
EuropeanSectors–Consensus2025/26EPSRevisionsYTDEuropeanBanks'ConsensusEPSRevisionsfor+1FY*
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
11%
22%
18%
14%
6%3%3%4%
-3%-6%
-1010%-13%2014-23Median=-8%
-16%
-24%-24%
-30%
-35%
-40%
-44%
Banks
Utilities
Insurance
DivFinancials
Industrials
HealthCare
Technology
Europe
ConsStaples
Telecom
Materials
ConsDiscr.
Energy
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2025E2026E
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
Note:BasedonMSCIindustryindicese.g.MSCIEuropeanBanksIndex.
Source:CitiResearch,DataStream
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
*CalculatedbottomupforbanksunderCitiResearchcoverage(mktcap.wghtd).Datafor2009showsconsensusEPSrevisionsthrough2009forFY10estimates,2010forFY11estimates,etc.2006-23basedonIBESconsensus.2024onwardsbasedonVisibleAlpha.
Source:CitiResearch,DataStream,VisibleAlpha
citl
9
…ButStillLimitedEarningsGrowth
EuropeanBanksSectorReportedNII,Revenue,Cost&GoPGrowth,2019-26E
Technology
Industrials
LuxuryGoods
Insurance
Travel
HealthCare
Chemicals
Retail
Media
PersonalCare
RealEstate
BasicResources
Europe
AutosandParts
Telecoms
Banks
Food,Bev
Utilities
Construction
Energy
FinServ
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Cons25ECiti25E
EuroSectors-2025Citivs.ConsensusEPS-WorstEPSGrowthExpectedofAnySector(ex-Utilities)
19%
11%11%
4%
2%2%
8%
4%
22%
0%
8%
15%
10%
4%
3%
1%
0%
17%
2%
1%
1%
4%
6%
1%
2%
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025E
2026E
-4%
Revenue
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025E
2026E
0%0%
-3%
Cost
2022
2023
2024
2025E
2026E
-1%
NII
2019
2020
2021
-5%
2019
2020
2021
-5%
2022
2023
2024
2025E
2026E
GOP
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
AggregatesectorgrowthbasedonEuros,thereforepartlydistortedbyFXtranslationforNordicandUKbanks.
Source:CompanyReportsandCitiResearchEstimatesSource:CitiResearch,DataStream,FactSet
citl
10
CapitalReturnYieldsStillHealthybutNowBelow8%
EuropeanBanks–2025EDividend+BuybackYieldRemainsBelow8%PostTheRecentRally
15%
12%
9%
6%
3%
0%
INGA
AIBG
HSBA
Unicaja
NWG
DANSKE
STAN
BIRG
ISP
NDASE
BAWAG
SEBa
CABK
LLOY
DNB
SABE
BNPP
SHBa
Sector
BARC
CBKG
SWEDa
BBVA
DBKGn
SAN
UBSG
KBC
SocGen
BKT
RBIV
BAER
VONN
PBBG
EFGN
ERST
DividendYieldsBuybackYields
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch
citl
11
EuropeanBanks–SharePricePerformance
EuropeanBanks-SharePricePerformance
25%
20%
SharePricePerformanceSince2ndApril2025
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
CBKG
SOGN
AIBG
ERST
EFGN
DANSKENWG
PTSB
SHBa
RBIVBAWAG
BKTDBKGn
SAN
Unicaja
BIRG
BARC
SWEDa
NDASE
SABE
LLOY
SEBa
ISPCABK
UBSGSTANBBVA
KBC
INGA
DNB
BNPP
PBBG
HSBAVONN
BAER
-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%
YTDSharePricePerformanceBefore2ndApril2025
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
Source:CitiResearch,DataStream
citl
12
InvestorPositioning
EuropeanBanks-ShortInterestPositioningEuropeanBanks-PositioningCrowdingFactor
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
BAWAG
STAN
BKT
KBC
BAER
RBIV
ISP
CBKG
PTSB
CABK
SOGN
NDASE
BIRG
BBVA
PBBG
SHBa
DNB
SWEDa
DBKGn
SEBa
HSBA
UBSG
Unicaja
SAN
BNPP
VONN
DANSKE
NWG
BARC
EFGN
INGA
SABE
AIBG
LLOY
Longpositioningcrowdingrank,10June2025
Consensuallongs
100%SABESAN
DANSKE
EFGNBARC
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
UnicajaDBKGn
INGANDASE
◆◆CBKG◆
BNPP
NWGUBSGISPBAWAG
B
AIBGCABK
BBVA◆KBCSE
LLOY命◆◆
STAN◆SOGN
2-waydebate
IRG
Ba
BKTVONN
◆HSBA
SWEDa◆◆SHBa
DNB
RBIV
BAER
Consensualshorts
PTSB◆PBBG
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Shortpositioningcrowdingfactorrank,10June2025
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
Note:Shortinterestrelativetohistoricalaverage,incomparisontoallotherEuropeanstocks.
Source:CitiResearch
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
Howtoreadthecrowdingdatafromourquantteam:
Datashowspercentile(0to100%)inwhicheachindividualstockisrankedwithinallEuropeanequities,basedonseveralmarketcrowdingfactors
(explainedhere).Ahigherrankingofaparticularstockintermsoflongpositioning(upto100%),meansanincreasedmarketlongpositioning.Similarly,ahigherrankingforshortpositioning(upto100%),meansanincreasedmarketshortpositioning.
Source:CitiResearch
citl
13
Re-Rating/De-RatingYTD
citl
14
EuropeanBanks–1Q25EarningsSnapshot
citl
15
Source:CitiResearch,Bloomberg,CompanyReports
RegionalExposureofEuropeanBanks
ExportstoUS(%ofTotalExportsand%ofGDP),2023EuropeanBanks–RevenueContributionbyRegion,FY23*
80%
70%
60%
50%
30%
Mexico
Canada
Ireland
SouthKorea
India
China
UK
Brazil
Finland
Italy
Germany
Singapore
Sweden
Austria
France
Belgium
Portugal
HK
Netherlands
Denmark
Spain
Unicaja
BKT
KBC
LLOY
PTSB
RBIV
AIBG
ISP
DANSKE
PBBG
NDASE
SHBa
SWEDa
BAWAG
BIRG
CABK
SABE
NWG
VONN
CBKG
SEBa
INGA
SOGN
DNB
BNPP
EFGN
DBKGn
BAER
BARC
UBSG
SAN
HSBA
BBVA
STAN
100%
90%
25%
80%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
70%
60%
40%
50%
30%
20%
10%
0%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
%TotalExports%ofGDP(rhs)
EMEA%US%Central&LatAm%APAC%Other%
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
Source:CitiResearch,WorldBank,UNComtrade
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
*Basedontotalassets,loansplit,exposuresplitorother,dependingonavailabledata.
Source:CitiResearch,CompanyReports
citl
16
CreditRisksintheEventofaGlobalRecession
EAUnemploymentRatevsEuropeanBanksCoR(1990-26E)
HowMuchWouldForecastProvisionsNeedToIncreaseToWipeOutProfits
2.10%
1.80%
1.50%
1.20%
0.90%
0.60%
0.30%
0.00%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025E
2026E
CostofRiskUnemploymentRate(rhs)
60.0x
50.0x
40.0x
30.0x
20.0x
10.0x
0.0x
13%
12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
SHBa
VONN
DANSKE
SWEDa
DNB
NDASE
SEBa
UBSG
RBIV
ISP
ERST
AIBG
KBC
NWG
CABK
HSBA
BAER
STAN
BIRG
INGA
SOGN
LLOY
CBKG
PTSB
DBKGn
BAWAG
BKT
BNPP
BARC
SABE
Unicaja
BBVA
SAN
SAN
PBBG
5%
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
GlobalRecessiondenotedbyGreyBars.Source:dataCentral,CitiResearch
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
2025EPre-ProvisionProfitDividedbyProvisionsSource:dataCentral,CitiResearch
citl
17
StrongCapitalPositions
EuropeanBanks–CET11Q25AvsCompanyTargetsvsRegulatoryRequirement
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Swedbank
DNB
Dankse
SHB
EFGInt’l*
SEB
AIB
Erste
Vontobel*
Raifffeisen
BankofIreland
Nordea
PBB
Unicaja
PTSB
Commerzbank
HSBC
KBC**
UBS
JuliusBaer*
Barclays
Bawag
StanChart
DeutscheBank
Natwest
ING
Lloyds
SocGen
Sabadell
Intesa
BBVA
Santander
Caixabank
BNPParibas
Bankinter
mCET1Q25AmMgmtCET1TargetmSREP
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
*asof2H24.**KBCdoesn’tspecifyCET1target.It’saminimumcapitalratio.MultiplebanksprovideaCET1Rtargetrange;wetakethemid-point.
Source:CitiResearch,CompanyReports
EuropeanBanks–CET11Q25AvsCompanyTargetsvsRegulatoryRequirement
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
EFGInt’l*
Vontobel*
Unicaja
JuliusBaer*
PBB
AIB
Commerzbank
Erste
BankofIreland
Swedbank
PTSB
Bankinter
Sabadell
BBVA
Raifffeisen
Dankse
Caixabank
UBS
KBC**
HSBC
SHB
Intesa
Bawag
StanChart
Santander
SocGen
DeutscheBank
Lloyds
SEB
ING
Natwest
Nordea
BNPParibas
DNB
Barclays
DeltabetweenCET1andMgmtTargetDeltabetweenMgmtTargetandSREP
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
*asof2H24.**KBCdoesn’tspecifyCET1target.It’saminimumcapitalratio.MultiplebanksprovideaCET1Rtargetrange;wetakethemid-point.
Source:CitiResearch,CompanyReports
citl
18
RateSensitivity
EuriborExpectedRateCurve(06-June-2025)EuropeanBanks–
EPSSensitivityto25bpsMoveinEURRates,2025E
2.75%
2.50%
2.25%
2.00%
1.75%
1.50%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Jun-25
Sep-25
Dec-25
Mar-26
Jun-26
Sep-26
Dec-26
Mar-27
Jun-27
Sep-27
Dec-27
FutureNowFuture1Monthsago
Future3MonthsagoFuture6Monthsago
0.0%
PTSB
AIB
BIRG
UNI
CABK
KBC
ERST
SAN
DBK
BKT
RBI
SAB
BBVA
CBK
ISP
ING
BNPP
IndividualBanks--Average
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,Bloomberg
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,CompanyReports
citl
19
SteeperCurveImplications
EuropeanBanks–AnnualEarningsSensitivityToEvery25bpsHigherStructuralHedgeReinvestmentYield
StructuralHedgeNominalAsa%OfStableRetailDeposits+OperationalCorporateDeposits+Equity,End2024
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1.50%
1.20%
0.90%
0.60%
0.30%
0.00%
IndividualBanksSectorAverage
FY24
BIRG*
AIB*
DeutscheBank*
PTSB
Barclays
Natwest
Commerzbank**
Lloyds
ING*
HSBC
Intesa*
Unicaja*
StanChart
Bankinter*
Sabadell*
BBVA*
Nordea
Caixabank*
Santander
Dankse
Dankse
Nordea
BBVA
Bankinter
Caixabank
Santander
Intesa
StanChart
Sabadell
HSBC
AIB
DeutscheBank
Barclays
Lloyds
BIRG
Natwest
Commerzbank
Unicaja
FY23
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
Datacollectedforthosebanksthatdiscloseastructuralhedgenominalbalance.*HedgeNominal&EquityatFY24andDepositsat3Q24.
Source:CitiResearch,CompanyReports
EuropeanBanks-LoanDepositRatio
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
Note:Computedforbanksthatdisclosenominalandaverageduration.
Source:CitiResearch,CompanyReports
EuropeanBanks–Cash/Debtas%Assets
200%
160%
120%
80%
40%
0%
30%
Cashas%oftotalassets
25%
20%
15%
10%
DANSKE
PBBG
SHBa
NDASE
SWEDa
DNB
SEBa
SocGen
SAN
INGA
LLOY
SABE
BAWAG
ISP
NWG
BBVA
ERST
PTSB
BKT
BNPP
RBIV
CABK
BIRG
KBC
UBSG
DBKGn
BARC
CBKG
AIBG
Unicaja
BAER
HSBA
VONN
STAN
EFGN
5%
0%
20242025E2026E
AIBBIRG
BAWAG
SEB
SOGN
RBI
DNB
SHB
DBKSWEDSAB
ING
CBKKBC
UNI
BKT
CABK
◆-ISP
NDA
BNPP
DANSKE
BBVA
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%
Debtsecuritiesas%oftotalassets
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
Note:Debtsecuritiesincl.amortisedcostandFVOCIassets.Asof2Q24.
Source:dataCentral,CitiResearchSource:CitiResearch,EBA
citl
20
EarningsSensitivitytoLoanDemandandCostofRisk
EuropeanBanks–
EPSSensitivityto1%Higher/(Slower)LoanGrowth,2025E*
0.50%
0.45%
0.40%
0.35%
0.30%
0.25%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.00%
PBBG
PTSB
BAWAG
AIBG
BIRG
NWG
SHBa
DNB
SABE
BKT
INGA
SWEDa
LLOY
ERST
DANSKE
RBIV
Unicaja
CABK
CBKG
NDASE
BBVA
SAN
ISP
SEBa
KBC
HSBA
DBKGn
BARC
BNPP
SocGen
EFGN
STAN
UBSG
VONN
IndividualBanksSectorAverage
EuropeanBanks–
EPSSensitivityto10bpsRiseinCoR,2025E
0%
-3%
-6%
-9%
-12%
-15%
VONN
HSBA
BBVA
ISP
AIBG
BAER
STAN
EFGN
DNB
BAWAG
CABK
BARC
BIRG
SWEDa
BKT
NWG
SEBa
BNPP
Unicaja
NDASE
SAN
UBSG
ERST
SABE
DBKGn
LLOY
CBKG
DANSKE
SHBa
SocGen
PBBG
IndividualBanks——SectorAverage
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
*Calculatedbasedonthepre-provisionprofit.RBIVexcludingRussia.Source:dataCentral,CitiResearch
Europeanbanks-
Exposurestomanufacturingsectoras%oftotalloans
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
BBVA
Intesa
CBK
BNPP
RBI
Erste
KBC
CaixaBank
Average
BKT
ING
SocGen
SABE
BIRG
SEB
Danske
Santander
Nordea
DBK
DNB
AIB
SWED
Unicaja
BAWAG
SHB
PBB
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
Note:Dataasof2Q24.
Source:CitiResearch,EBA
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
EnterFootnote
Source:dataCentral,CitiResearch
Europeanbanks-
Exposurestoconstructionsectoras%oftotalloans
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
DNB
Erste
BKT
KBC
CaixaBank
BNPP
Intesa
SABE
Nordea
BBVA
Unicaja
AIB
Average
Santander
SHB
RBI
SocGen
ING
Danske
SWED
BAWAG
SEB
CBK
PBB
DBK
BIRG
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
Note:Dataasof2Q24.
Source:CitiResearch,EBA
citl
21
SeekingConsensusEPSUpgrades&HighYields
EuropeanBanks2025/26EAdjustedEPS-Citivs.Consensus
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
NWG
HSBA
DNB
CBKG
AIBG
BARC
BNPP
CABK
LLOY
BKT
BIRG
Unicaja
BAER
UBSG
EFGN
SEBa
NDASE
STAN
SOGN
BBVA
INGA
DANSKE
SHBa
SABE
ISP
BAWAG
DBKGn
SWEDa
VONN
SAN
KBC
PBBG
PTSB
20252026
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
*AdjustedEPS,wheredisclosed,typicallyexcluderestructuringcharges,litigation&redress.WhereadjustedEPSisnotreadilyavailableinVisibleAlphaweobservestatutoryEPSfor5banks(AIB,BBVA,EFGN,Lloyds,andVONN).Lloyds2025Edistortedbymotorfinanceredress,Raiffeisendistortedby
Russia,DNBaffectedbyCarnegieacquisition,SEBaffectedbyassumptionsrelatedtoAirPlusintegrationcosts,Commerzbankimpactedbyrestructuringcharges.
Source:CitiResearch,VisibleAlpha
EuropeanBanks–2025EDividend+BuybackYieldRemainsBelow8%PostTheRecentRally
15%
12%
9%
6%
3%
0%
INGA
AIBG
HSBA
Unicaja
NWG
DANSKE
STAN
BIRG
ISP
NDASE
BAWAG
SEBa
CABK
LLOY
DNB
SABE
BNPP
SHBa
Sector
BARC
CBKG
SWEDa
BBVA
DBKGn
SAN
UBSG
KBC
SocGen
BKT
RBIV
BAER
VONN
PBBG
EFGN
ERST
DividendYieldsBuybackYields
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch
citl
22
StockValuations:P/TBvsRoTE
EuropeanBanks-2025EP/TBVvs2026ERoTE
2.50
2.00
PriceToTangibleBookValue2025E
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
BAERBAWAG
(22.0%,2.32x)(25.3%,2.32x)
EFGN◆
R2=80%
VONN◆
KBC
BKT
ISP◆
DNB
CABK◆
LLOY
◆NDASE
SEBa
BBVANWG
UBSG
ERSTSWEDa
AIBGSANHSBA
SHBa
◆INGA
SABE
DANSKE◆BIRG
CBKG
STAN◆
◆BARC
Unicaja◆
DBKGnBNPP
SOGN
RBIV◆
PTSB◆
PBBG
0%4%8%12%16%20%
RoTE2026E
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch
citl
23
StockValuations:CitivsCons.EPSandP/EvsHistory
EuropeanBanks-2026ECitivsCons.EPSand12MFwd.PEvsHistory
1.50
12MFwd.PE(Nos.ofSDawayfrom5YMedian)
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
-0.25
-0.50
SWEDa◆
BAER
SAN◆
LLOY
Unicaja
SHBa
BAWAG
DANSKE
ISP
INGA
CABK
SOGN
UBSGBBVA
BARC
HSBA◆
BNPP
BKTEFGN
STAN
KBC◆
NWG◆
SABE
SEBa
BIRG
NDASE
DBKGn
DNB
CBKG
PTSB(-19%%,0.02)
AIBG
VONN◆
-10%-5%0%5%10%15%
CitivsCons-2026EEPS
?2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.
*AdjustedEPS,wheredisclosed,typicallyexcluderestructuringcharges,litigation&redress.
WhereadjustedEPSisnotreadilyavailableinVisibleAlphaweobservestatutoryEPSfor5banks(AIB,BBVA,EFGN,Lloyds,andVONN).LloydsP/Emultipleisdistortedbyanassumptionofadditionalmotorfinanceredresscharges.
Source:CitiResearch,DataStream,VisibleAlpha
citl
24
StockValuations:Summary
citl
Source:dataCentral,CitiResearch
T
25
CitiResearch
IfyouarevisuallyimpairedandwouldliketospeaktoaCitirepresentativeregardingthedetailsofthegraphicsinthisdocument,pleasecallUSA1-888-800-5008(TTY:711),fromoutsidetheUS+1-210-677-3788
AppendixA-1ANALYSTCERTIFICATION
Theresearchanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparationandcontentofthisresearchreportareeither(i)designatedb
溫馨提示
- 1. 本站所有資源如無特殊說明，都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
- 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等，如果需要附件，請聯(lián)系上傳者。文件的所有權(quán)益歸上傳用戶所有。
- 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙，網(wǎng)頁內(nèi)容里面會有圖紙預(yù)覽，若沒有圖紙預(yù)覽就沒有圖紙。
- 4. 未經(jīng)權(quán)益所有人同意不得將文件中的內(nèi)容挪作商業(yè)或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文庫網(wǎng)僅提供信息存儲空間，僅對用戶上傳內(nèi)容的表現(xiàn)方式做保護(hù)處理，對用戶上傳分享的文檔內(nèi)容本身不做任何修改或編輯，并不能對任何下載內(nèi)容負(fù)責(zé)。
- 6. 下載文件中如有侵權(quán)或不適當(dāng)內(nèi)容，請與我們聯(lián)系，我們立即糾正。
- 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準(zhǔn)確性、安全性和完整性, 同時也不承擔(dān)用戶因使用這些下載資源對自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。
最新文檔
- 餐飲企業(yè)餐飲產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈整合與供應(yīng)鏈優(yōu)化顧問服務(wù)協(xié)議
- 代駕租賃車輛合同服務(wù)質(zhì)量規(guī)范
- 高端制造廠房租賃合同樣本
- 農(nóng)村交房協(xié)議書范本
- 跨國貿(mào)易保理融資合作協(xié)議
- 股權(quán)退出協(xié)議范本：針對公司撤資的全面合作協(xié)議
- 標(biāo)準(zhǔn)商鋪租賃及商業(yè)活動策劃服務(wù)合同
- 高新技術(shù)廠房交易合同模板
- 出差人員交通補(bǔ)貼及費用結(jié)算規(guī)范合同
- 車輛抵押租賃與汽車維修保養(yǎng)合作協(xié)議
- 英語新閩教版小學(xué)四年級下冊全冊教案
- 人才梯隊培養(yǎng)計劃
- 新疆阿克蘇地區(qū)(2024年-2025年小學(xué)六年級語文)統(tǒng)編版小升初真題（下學(xué)期）試卷及答案
- 2025年初級社會工作者綜合能力全國考試題庫（含答案）
- 課程思政示范課程申報書
- 河南天一大聯(lián)考2024屆高一數(shù)學(xué)第二學(xué)期期末考試試題含解析
- 北京101中學(xué)2023-2024學(xué)年七下英語期末檢測試題含答案
- 國家開放大學(xué)本科《管理英語4》一平臺機(jī)考真題及答案(第六套)
- 2024年廣東省中考生物試卷附答案
- 合肥市瑤海區(qū)2022-2023學(xué)年七年級下學(xué)期期中歷史試題【帶答案】
- 一年級下冊口算題卡大全(口算練習(xí)題50套直接打印版)
評論
0/150
提交評論