茲維博迪金融學(xué)第二版課件Cha.ppt

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,1,第3章 管理財(cái)務(wù)健康和績(jī)效,目標(biāo) 財(cái)務(wù)計(jì)劃的目的 營(yíng)運(yùn)資本管理,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2,第3章內(nèi)容,3.1 財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表的功能 3.2 財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表的回顧 3.3 市場(chǎng)價(jià)值與賬面價(jià)值 3.4 收入的會(huì)計(jì)度量與經(jīng)濟(jì)度量 3.5 股東收益率（Return on Shareholders）與賬面凈資產(chǎn)收益率（ Return on Book Equity）,3.6 運(yùn)用財(cái)務(wù)比率進(jìn)行分析 3.7 財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃過程 3.8 構(gòu)建財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃模型 3.9 增長(zhǎng)和外部融資需要 3.10 營(yíng)運(yùn)資本管理 3.11流動(dòng)性與現(xiàn)金預(yù)算,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,3,3.1 財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表的功能,財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表: 向所有者和債權(quán)人提供關(guān)于一家企業(yè)當(dāng)前狀況和過去績(jī)效的信息 為所有者和債權(quán)人提供方便的途徑，以設(shè)定績(jī)效目標(biāo)和給企業(yè)經(jīng)理施加約束 為財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃提供方便的模板,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,4,3.2 財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表的回顧,資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表（Balance Sheets） 損益表（Income Statements） 現(xiàn)金流量表（Cash-Flow Statements）,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,5,資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表（The Balance Sheet）,總結(jié)一個(gè)時(shí)點(diǎn)上的企業(yè)資產(chǎn)、負(fù)債和所有者權(quán)益 貨幣量以歷史值和歷史匯率度量 根據(jù)通用會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則準(zhǔn)備（GAAP, Generally Accepted Accounting Principles） GAAP 有時(shí)由財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)委員會(huì)（Financial Accounting Standards Board）修訂 上市公司（Exchange-listed companies）必須遵守證券和交易所委員會(huì)（Securities and Exchange Commission，SEC）的規(guī)則。,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,6,主要分類: 資產(chǎn) 流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)(能在一年之內(nèi)變現(xiàn)的資產(chǎn)) 固定資產(chǎn)(不能在一年之內(nèi)變現(xiàn)的資產(chǎn)) 折舊 負(fù)債和股東權(quán)益 負(fù)債 流動(dòng)負(fù)債 長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債 股東權(quán)益, “折舊”與“累計(jì)折舊”一個(gè)必須注意的區(qū)別,問題：“折舊是資產(chǎn)類的項(xiàng)目，不算進(jìn)利潤(rùn)的。所以我在考場(chǎng)上就很糾結(jié)。希望老師再考慮一下，是不是算利潤(rùn)的時(shí)候不把折舊算進(jìn)去也可以呢？” 回答：“固定資產(chǎn)折舊是包括在主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)成本里的一項(xiàng)，則應(yīng)當(dāng)是在損益表里。你說的應(yīng)該是累計(jì)折舊（課本80頁(yè)表3-1），是在資產(chǎn)項(xiàng)里。 “我理解，折舊是對(duì)應(yīng)于收入的流量，累計(jì)折舊是對(duì)應(yīng)于資產(chǎn)的存量。另外，百度到這么兩段話，可以佐證上述理解： “一、固定資產(chǎn)折舊是指在固定資產(chǎn)使用壽命內(nèi)，按照確定的方法對(duì)應(yīng)計(jì)折舊額進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)分?jǐn)偂?“二、折舊概念的產(chǎn)生即是企業(yè)由收付實(shí)現(xiàn)制向權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制轉(zhuǎn)變的重要標(biāo)志，其概念基礎(chǔ)是權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制以及體現(xiàn)這一制度要求的配比原則。按照配比原則，固定資產(chǎn)的成本不僅僅是為取得當(dāng)期收入而發(fā)生的成本，也是為取得以后各項(xiàng)收入而發(fā)生的成本，即固定資產(chǎn)成本是為在固定資產(chǎn)有效使用期內(nèi)取得收入而發(fā)生的成本，自然與收入相配比。 “這兩段話的意思應(yīng)該是說：固定資產(chǎn)的收入是一年一年的流量，相應(yīng)地，其成本折舊也是一年一年的流量?！?Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,7,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,8,GPC Balance Sheet on December 31,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,9,損益表（The Income Statement）,總結(jié)一個(gè)公司一個(gè)時(shí)期內(nèi)的盈利能力 主要分類: 銷售收入 主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)成本 毛利潤(rùn) 日常管理和銷售費(fèi)用 營(yíng)運(yùn)收入 利息費(fèi)用（Debt service） 應(yīng)稅收入（Taxable income） 公司稅（公司收入所得稅） 凈收入,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,10,重要提醒： 留存收益變化并不一定加在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的現(xiàn)金余額上，而是加在股東權(quán)益上，因?yàn)榱舸媸找媸恰坝^念上”屬于股東的錢增加了，并不一定發(fā)生實(shí)際的現(xiàn)金流。 賬面顯示的是歷史值，而不是市場(chǎng)值 股東權(quán)益可能遠(yuǎn)高或遠(yuǎn)低于企業(yè)的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值 企業(yè)土地的市值可能減半或加倍，但這不在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中報(bào)告,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,11,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,12,現(xiàn)金流量表,顯示一個(gè)時(shí)期內(nèi)流進(jìn)和流出企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金 注意力集中在企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金狀況 企業(yè)可能盈利豐厚卻短缺現(xiàn)金【例如，銷售很多但錢收不回來(lái)，此時(shí)損益表記為“銷售收入”，只是“觀念上”的收入】 不像資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表和損益表，現(xiàn)金流量表獨(dú)立于會(huì)計(jì)方法 美國(guó)國(guó)稅局（IRS）用會(huì)計(jì)收入計(jì)算稅收，以致會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則通過稅收對(duì)現(xiàn)金流有一個(gè)二階效應(yīng)【會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則 會(huì)計(jì)收入 稅收 現(xiàn)金流】,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,13,2*0應(yīng)為2*1,rec應(yīng)為pay,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,14,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,15,財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表的注釋,解釋所用會(huì)計(jì)方法 資產(chǎn)和負(fù)債的細(xì)節(jié) 股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)的細(xì)節(jié) 運(yùn)營(yíng)變化的證明文件 表外項(xiàng)目【不顯示在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中的金融合約】,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,16,瀏覽已公布會(huì)計(jì)報(bào)表,通常順序 感受紙張質(zhì)量，瀏覽圖示 閱讀主席的報(bào)告 瀏覽賬目 閱讀注釋 形成評(píng)估,正確順序 形成評(píng)估 閱讀注釋 將你的數(shù)字與報(bào)告所載數(shù)字進(jìn)行比較 閱讀主席的報(bào)告 檢查圖示，等等,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,17,這種順序的理由,獨(dú)立于最近的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告形成你自己無(wú)偏的預(yù)期 對(duì)賬目的注釋給予數(shù)字更精確的意義 對(duì)比你的數(shù)字和公司的數(shù)字告訴你，讀主席的報(bào)告時(shí)應(yīng)當(dāng)重點(diǎn)關(guān)注哪里。尋找遺漏和矛盾 將公關(guān)部門的公眾形象與你（現(xiàn)在）已知情投資者的印象進(jìn)行比較,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,18,3.3 市場(chǎng)價(jià)值與賬面價(jià)值,并非所有資產(chǎn)和債務(wù)都記錄在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中，并且另一些資產(chǎn)存在價(jià)值低估或高估的情況 無(wú)形資產(chǎn)如專利可能會(huì)記錄在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中，但是品牌忠誠(chéng)度、技術(shù)訣竅、訓(xùn)練有素的忠誠(chéng)雇員的價(jià)值并沒有反映在賬面上。商譽(yù)價(jià)值可能反映在賬面上（一家公司的收購(gòu)價(jià)減去其賬面價(jià)），但是很快就失去了與其市場(chǎng)價(jià)的聯(lián)系，原因是會(huì)計(jì)折舊和市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)。 一些或有債務(wù)（contingent liabilities）如【擔(dān)?！吭V訟按常規(guī)是不反映在財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表或只在財(cái)報(bào)注釋中揭示。 會(huì)計(jì)師們開始對(duì)養(yǎng)老金資產(chǎn)價(jià)值進(jìn)行盯市。,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,19,3.4 收入的會(huì)計(jì)度量和經(jīng)濟(jì)度量,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)凈收入的度量 股東得到的凈現(xiàn)金流加現(xiàn)有權(quán)益市值的變化 會(huì)計(jì)師對(duì)凈收入的度量 收入減支出減稅 如果會(huì)計(jì)師對(duì)所有資產(chǎn)、債務(wù)的價(jià)值盯市，以上兩種度量相等。但現(xiàn)實(shí)并非如此。,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,20,例：,GPC公司2001年的會(huì)計(jì)凈收入是正的$23,400,000 假定從2000到2001，股票總市值從$200,000,000 跌到$187,200,000。之前我們看到給股東的現(xiàn)金紅利是$10,000,000。2001年的經(jīng)濟(jì)收入是負(fù)的$2,800,000 收入的會(huì)計(jì)度量和經(jīng)濟(jì)度量可能相當(dāng)不同,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,21,3.5股東收益率與賬面凈資產(chǎn)收益率,回憶我們?cè)诘?章對(duì)“持有期收益率”的定義，并將此與收入的經(jīng)濟(jì)度量進(jìn)行比較,這是“股東收益率”（Total Shareholder Return）,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,22,傳統(tǒng)上，公司績(jī)效用“凈資產(chǎn)收益率” （Return on Equity, ROE）度量,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,23,凈資產(chǎn)收益率與股東收益率之間沒有必然的一致性。,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,24,3.6 用財(cái)務(wù)比率進(jìn)行分析,雖然會(huì)計(jì)原則和金融原則不同，但公開的會(huì)計(jì)資料還是能提供企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)狀況的線索。 公司績(jī)效的5個(gè)方面： 盈利能力 資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率 財(cái)務(wù)杠桿 流動(dòng)性 市值,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,25,盈利性（Profitability）,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,26,資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率（Asset Turnover）,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,27,財(cái)務(wù)杠桿（Financial Leverage）,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,28,流動(dòng)性（Liquidity）,（速動(dòng)比率）,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,29,市值（Market Value）,（市盈率）,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,30,比率比較,不同的立場(chǎng) 股東 雇員、經(jīng)理或工會(huì) 放貸者 獵食者（Predator）、客戶、供應(yīng)商、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手、行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì) （用來(lái)比較的）基準(zhǔn)（Benchmarks） 其他公司的比率值 該公司的歷史比率值 從金融市場(chǎng)來(lái)的數(shù)據(jù) 數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源 Dun & Bradstreet, Robert Morris, Commerce Departments Quarterly Financial Report, Trade Associations,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,31,比率之間的關(guān)系,有時(shí)將比率分解為其他比率的和、差、積、商是有價(jià)值的。許多這類方法開始于：,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,32,比率分析的限制,比率分析能幫你找到有利可圖的關(guān)注點(diǎn)，但也可能會(huì)誤導(dǎo)你 尋找進(jìn)一步的證據(jù) 好的長(zhǎng)期目標(biāo)可能使比率很難看?！氨嚷驶芾怼笨赡芘c長(zhǎng)期利益不一致。 同行業(yè)的企業(yè)是有差異的，不同比率可能都是好的，比率分析不能教條化。,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,33,評(píng)論：,謹(jǐn)記：財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表根據(jù)會(huì)計(jì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和傳統(tǒng)編制，并不完全滿足金融分析的需要 仔細(xì)、理解之后去用還是能獲得很多有用信息。,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,34,財(cái)務(wù)杠桿的效果,簡(jiǎn)單講，財(cái)務(wù)杠桿意味著“用借來(lái)的錢” 股東用財(cái)務(wù)杠桿來(lái)提高凈資產(chǎn)收益率 這增加了凈資產(chǎn)收益率對(duì)資產(chǎn)收益率波動(dòng)的敏感性（資產(chǎn)收益率度量企業(yè)潛在的盈利能力）,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,35,說明,（課本中表3.7和3.8） 考慮兩家相同的公司，除了Nodebt 公司用$1,000,000權(quán)益融資，Halfdebt公司用 $500,000權(quán)益和$500,000債務(wù)融資 再假定兩家公司的息稅前收入都是$120,000 ，稅率是40%,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,36,Case: Borrow at 10%,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,37,Case: Borrow at 15%,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,38,Case: Borrow at 10%: Effect of Business Cycle on ROE,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,39,結(jié)論：,從以下各方觀點(diǎn)來(lái)看： 放貸者：企業(yè)債務(wù)增加無(wú)疑有害，債券評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)會(huì)下調(diào)其證券的評(píng)級(jí) 股東：可能有利，要看資產(chǎn)收益率和利息率。,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,40,3.7 財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃過程,“I dont give a strawberry what happens. I want you all to stonewall it. Let them plead the Fifth Amendment, cover-up or anything else, if itll save it, save the plan.” Richard Milhous Nixon on Planning (22 March, 1973) (Bowdlerized to avoid offending accounting students),Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,41,導(dǎo)言,本節(jié)帶領(lǐng)我們經(jīng)歷財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃過程。使用一家制造業(yè)企業(yè)的歷史財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表作為起點(diǎn) 之后，討論短期規(guī)劃和營(yíng)運(yùn)資本的管理,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,42,財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃過程,財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃是一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)過程，遵循如下周期：制定規(guī)劃、實(shí)施規(guī)劃和參照實(shí)際實(shí)施結(jié)果修訂規(guī)劃,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,43,財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃過程,起點(diǎn)是戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃 戰(zhàn)略通過建立總體商業(yè)發(fā)展指導(dǎo)方針和增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)來(lái)指導(dǎo)財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃過程 企業(yè)想_哪些生意？ 進(jìn)入 擴(kuò)張 收縮 退出 多快？,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,44,財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃過程,規(guī)劃期界的長(zhǎng)度 財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃期界越長(zhǎng)，應(yīng)當(dāng)越少細(xì)節(jié)（一般） 財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃的修訂一般是規(guī)劃期界長(zhǎng)度的函數(shù) 短期規(guī)劃頻繁修訂，長(zhǎng)期規(guī)劃修訂得不頻繁得多,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,45,財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃過程,財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃期界可以分解成幾個(gè)階段： 管理層預(yù)測(cè)關(guān)鍵的外部因素，包括經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮水平、通脹、利率及競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的產(chǎn)出和價(jià)格 基于以上預(yù)測(cè)，管理層接著預(yù)測(cè)收益、支出、現(xiàn)金流和可能需要的外部融資,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,46,財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃過程,為企業(yè)的各部門、機(jī)構(gòu)和關(guān)鍵個(gè)人制定具體的績(jī)效目標(biāo) 定期度量績(jī)效，并將其與計(jì)劃比較以糾正計(jì)劃或是績(jī)效【目標(biāo)】 關(guān)鍵職員定期受到勸告、獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)或懲罰，然后開始新的財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃期界,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,47,3.8 構(gòu)建財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃模型,下一頁(yè)是GPC的歷史,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,48,GPC Financial Statements, Years xxx1 - xxx3,(Nearest $ Million),(Percent of Years Sales),Year,xxx0,xxx1,xxx2,xxx3,xxx1,xxx2,xxx3,Income Statement,Sales,200,240,288,100.0%,100.0%,100.0%,Cost of goods sold,110,132,158,55.0%,55.0%,55.0%,Gross margin,90,108,130,45.0%,45.0%,45.0%,Selling, general & admin. expenses,30,36,43,15.0%,15.0%,15.0%,EBIT,60,72,86,30.0%,30.0%,30.0%,Interest expenses,30,45,64,15.0%,18.8%,22.2%,Taxes,12,11,9,6.0%,4.5%,3.1%,Net income,18,16,13,9.0%,6.7%,4.7%,Dividends,5,5,4,2.7%,2.0%,1.4%,Change in shareholders equity,13,11,9,6.3%,4.7%,3.3%,Balance Sheet,Assets:,Cash & equivalents,10,12,14,17,6.0%,6.0%,6.0%,Receivables,40,48,58,69,24.0%,24.0%,24.0%,Inventories,50,60,72,86,30.0%,30.0%,30.0%,Property, Plant & equipment,500,600,720,864,300.0%,300.0%,300.0%,Total Assets,600,720,864,1037,360.0%,360.0%,360.0%,Liabilities:,Payables,30,36,43,52,18.0%,18.0%,18.0%,Short-term debt,120,221,347,502,110.7%,144.6%,174.2%,Long-term debt,150,150,150,150,75.0%,62.5%,52.1%,Total Liabilities,300,407,540,704,203.7%,225.1%,244.3%,Shareholders equity,300,313,324,333,156.3%,134.9%,115.7%,準(zhǔn)確講是 “留存收益變化”,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,49,(Nearest $ Million),Year,xxx0,xxx1,xxx2,xxx3,Income Statement,Sales,200,240,288,Cost of goods sold,110,132,158,Gross margin,90,108,130,Selling, general & admin. expenses,30,36,43,EBIT,60,72,86,Interest expenses,30,45,64,Taxes,12,11,9,Net income,18,16,13,Dividends,5,5,4,Change in shareholders equity,13,11,9,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,50,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,51,(Percent of Years Sales),Year,xxx1,xxx2,xxx3,Income Statement,Sales,100.0%,100.0%,100.0%,Cost of goods sold,55.0%,55.0%,55.0%,Gross margin,45.0%,45.0%,45.0%,Selling, general & admin exp.,15.0%,15.0%,15.0%,EBIT,30.0%,30.0%,30.0%,Interest expenses,15.0%,18.8%,22.2%,Taxes,6.0%,4.5%,3.1%,Net income,9.0%,6.7%,4.7%,Dividends,2.7%,2.0%,1.4%,Change in equity,6.3%,4.7%,3.3%,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,52,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,53,構(gòu)建財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃模型,銷售額百分比方法 首先檢查損益表中哪些項(xiàng)保持了對(duì)銷售額的固定比例 這使我們能確定哪些項(xiàng)應(yīng)當(dāng)用銷售額的投影預(yù)測(cè)，哪些需要用其他依據(jù)預(yù)測(cè),Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,54,構(gòu)建財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃模型,銷售額百分比方法 第二步是預(yù)測(cè)銷售額 這是一個(gè)大問題，但我們將假定銷售額明年將繼續(xù)以20%的增長(zhǎng)率增長(zhǎng)（正如它過去的增長(zhǎng)率）,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,55,構(gòu)建財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃模型,銷售額百分比方法 第三步是預(yù)測(cè)已假定與銷售額一起變動(dòng)【增長(zhǎng)率相等】的那些項(xiàng),Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,56,構(gòu)建財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃模型,銷售額百分比方法 第四也是最后一步是預(yù)測(cè)尚未預(yù)測(cè)的、未假定與銷售額一起變動(dòng)的那些項(xiàng) 我們需要一些假定：,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,57,構(gòu)建財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃模型,假定： 利率對(duì)長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債是8%，對(duì)短期負(fù)債是15% 為避免復(fù)雜，假定利息是對(duì)年末的長(zhǎng)、短期負(fù)債余額計(jì)算（我們可稍后重提此問題） 利息 = 0.08*150 + 0.15*501.72 = 87.26,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,58,構(gòu)建財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃模型,給定分紅比例和稅率分別是30%和40%，損益表現(xiàn)在就可以構(gòu)建出來(lái) 股東權(quán)益變化額加到xxx3 年的權(quán)益額上，就是xxx4年的新余額 有了“總資產(chǎn)”，于是現(xiàn)在可以計(jì)算“總負(fù)債”,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,59,134.9%,115.7%,N/A,340,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,60,例子的完成,意識(shí)到只剩兩個(gè)賬戶需要估計(jì)：短期負(fù)債和長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債，就可以完成資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的預(yù)測(cè) 短期負(fù)債+長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債=總負(fù)債904-應(yīng)付賬款62 = 842 假定長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債沒有變化（仍是150） 短期負(fù)債=842-150=692 【短期負(fù)債另一算法：總資產(chǎn)變化=應(yīng)付賬款變化+短期負(fù)債變化+長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債變化+留存收益變化+實(shí)收資本變化，由已知算出短期負(fù)債變化（隱含假定實(shí)收資本無(wú)變化），再加上xxx3 年末短期負(fù)債】,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,61,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,62,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,63,4/4 3.9 增長(zhǎng)與外源融資需要,為了增長(zhǎng)20%，該企業(yè)需要額外的692-502=190的外源融資【短期負(fù)債變化+長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債變化+實(shí)收資本變化】。（上例中全是短期負(fù)債變化） 有時(shí)能直接計(jì)算所需外源融資是有用的：,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,64,增長(zhǎng)與外源融資需要,令 S1 為明年的銷售額 S0 為今年的銷售額 AS 為與銷售額一起變