公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004課件

1、公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Chapter 4 Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth,McGraw-Hill/Irwin,Copyright 2013 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Key Concepts and Skills,Understand the financial planning process and how decisions are interrelated Be able to develop a fin

2、ancial plan using the percentage of sales approach Be able to compute external financing needed and identify the determinants of a firms growth Understand the four major decision areas involved in long-term financial planning Understand how capital structure policy and dividend policy affect a firms

3、 ability to grow,4-2,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Chapter Outline,What Is Financial Planning? Financial Planning Models: A First Look The Percentage of Sales Approach External Financing and Growth Some Caveats Regarding Financial Planning Models,4-3,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Elements of Financial Planning,Investment i

4、n new assets determined by capital budgeting decisions Degree of financial leverage determined by capital structure decisions Cash paid to shareholders determined by dividend policy decisions Liquidity requirements determined by net working capital decisions,4-4,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Financial Planning

5、Process,Planning Horizon - divide decisions into short-run decisions (usually next 12 months) and long-run decisions (usually 2 5 years) Aggregation - combine capital budgeting decisions into one large project Assumptions and Scenarios Make realistic assumptions about important variables Run several

6、 scenarios where you vary the assumptions by reasonable amounts Determine, at a minimum, worst case, normal case, and best case scenarios,4-5,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Role of Financial Planning,Examine interactions help management see the interactions between decisions Explore options give management a sys

7、tematic framework for exploring its opportunities Avoid surprises help management identify possible outcomes and plan accordingly Ensure feasibility and internal consistency help management determine if goals can be accomplished and if the various stated (and unstated) goals of the firm are consiste

8、nt with one another,4-6,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Financial Planning Model Ingredients,Sales Forecast many cash flows depend directly on the level of sales (often estimated using sales growth rate) Pro Forma Statements setting up the plan using projected financial statements allows for consistency and ease

9、of interpretation Asset Requirements the additional assets that will be required to meet sales projections Financial Requirements the amount of financing needed to pay for the required assets Plug Variable determined by management deciding what type of financing will be used to make the balance shee

10、t balance Economic Assumptions explicit assumptions about the coming economic environment,4-7,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Example: Historical Financial Statements,4-8,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Example: Pro Forma Income Statement,Initial Assumptions Revenues will grow at 15% (2,000*1.15) All items are tied directly to

11、 sales, and the current relationships are optimal Consequently, all other items will also grow at 15%,4-9,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Example: Pro Forma Balance Sheet,Case I Dividends are the plug variable, so equity increases at 15% Dividends = 460 (NI) 370 (increase in equity) = 90 dividends paid Case II De

12、bt is the plug variable and no dividends are paid Debt = 1,150 (600+460) = 90 Repay 400 90 = 310 in debt,4-10,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Percentage of Sales Approach,Some items vary directly with sales, while others do not Income Statement Costs may vary directly with sales - if this is the case, then the pr

13、ofit margin is constant Depreciation and interest expense may not vary directly with sales if this is the case, then the profit margin is not constant Dividends are a management decision and generally do not vary directly with sales this influences additions to retained earnings Balance Sheet Initia

14、lly assume all assets, including fixed, vary directly with sales Accounts payable will also normally vary directly with sales Notes payable, long-term debt and equity generally do not vary directly with sales because they depend on management decisions about capital structure The change in the retai

15、ned earnings portion of equity will come from the dividend decision,4-11,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Example: Income Statement,Assume Sales grow at 10%,Dividend Payout Rate = 50%,4-12,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Example: Balance Sheet,4-13,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Example: External Financing Needed,The firm needs to come up w

16、ith an additional $200 in debt or equity to make the balance sheet balance TA TL therefore, we must ask ourselves some important questions as we go through the planning process: How does our plan affect the timing and risk of our cash flows? Does the plan point out inconsistencies in our goals? If w

17、e follow this plan, will we maximize owners wealth?,4-21,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Quick Quiz,What is the purpose of long-range planning? What are the major decision areas involved in developing a plan? What is the percentage of sales approach? How do you adjust the model when operating at less than full ca

18、pacity? What is the internal growth rate? What is the sustainable growth rate? What are the major determinants of growth?,4-22,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Ethics Issues,Should managers overstate budget requests (or growth projections) if they know that central headquarters is going to cut funds across the board?,4-23,公司理財?shù)谑鍼PTChap004,Comprehensive Problem,XYZ has the following financial information for 2012: Sales = $2M, Net Inc. = $0.4M, Div. = $0.1M C.A. = $0.4M, F.A. = $3.6M C.L. = $0.2M, LTD = $1