宏觀經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)物價

1、18,Measuring the Cost of Living,Measuring the Cost of Living,物價涉及到老百姓的生活成本。 物價的度量可以有多個口徑，比如CPI,PPI,GDP平減指數(shù)等。 Inflation refers to a situation in which the economys overall price level is rising.物價總水平的持續(xù)上升就是通脹。 The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price level from the previous period,THE

2、 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX,物價總水平就是經(jīng)濟中所有產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)價格的變化。經(jīng)濟學家根據(jù)消費者支出的定期調(diào)查，挑選一組產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的組合，稱之為“一籃子產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)”。然后把這樣相同的一籃子產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的每一年支出和某個基年支出進行比較，支出的變動就是物價總水平的變動。這個就是價格指數(shù)方法。最常用的就是消費物價指數(shù)CPI。The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer,THE CONSUMER PR

3、ICE INDEX,中國的價格指數(shù)參見中國統(tǒng)計年鑒2008，表8-1到8-4,How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated,Fix the Basket: Determine what prices are most important to the typical consumer. Find the Prices: Find the prices of each of the goods and services in the basket for each point in time Compute the Baskets Cost: Use th

4、e data on prices to calculate the cost of the basket of goods and services at different times. Choose a Base Year and Compute the Index,Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living,比如，2006年消費者調(diào)查顯示，平均每人消費2件衣服和200斤大米。衣服均價是每件200元；大米均價是每斤1.5元。2007年衣服220元/件；大米1.8元/件。2006年是基年，為100。那么2007年的價格指數(shù)就是： （衣服現(xiàn)價衣服基期數(shù)量+

5、大米現(xiàn)價大米基期數(shù)量）/ （衣服基價衣服基期數(shù)量+大米基價大米基期數(shù)量）100=（2202+1.8200）/（2002+1.5200） 100=114.3,How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated,Compute the inflation rate: The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price index from the preceding period. The Inflation Rate The inflation rate is calculated as follow

6、s: 如上例：2007年的通脹率=（114.3-100）/100100=14.3,Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living,Substitution bias Introduction of new goods Unmeasured quality changes,The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index,The GDP deflator is calculated as follows: 含義：名義GDP相當于物品和勞務(wù)的現(xiàn)期價格現(xiàn)期數(shù)量；實際GDP相當于基期價格現(xiàn)期數(shù)量,The GDP Defl

7、ator versus the Consumer Price Index,國家統(tǒng)計局還采用其他的統(tǒng)計口徑計算物價指數(shù)，比如PPI（工業(yè)品出廠價格指數(shù)）The producer price index, which measures the cost of a basket of goods and services bought by firms rather than consumers. 以及商品零售價格指數(shù)等,The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index,GDP平減和CPI的區(qū)別： The GDP deflator reflects t

8、he prices of all goods and services produced domestically, whereas. the consumer price index reflects the prices of all goods and services bought by consumers,The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index,The consumer price index compares the price of a fixed basket of goods and services to the p

9、rice of the basket in the base year. whereas the GDP deflator compares the price of currently produced goods and services to the price of the same goods and services in the base year. 注：用固定籃子計算的價格指數(shù)為拉氏指數(shù)（Laspeyres index），如CPI；而按照可變籃子計算的為帕氏指數(shù)(Paasche index)，如GDP平減,Figure 2 美國的Two Measures of Inflation,1965,Percent,per Year,15,10,5,0,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,