H股市場：喘口氣再出發(fā)0107

1、） ） 。 。 投資策略雙周報 證券研究報告 2013 年 1 月 7 日 常宇亮，cfa 分析員，sac 執(zhí)業(yè)證書編號：s0080511030016 h 股市場研究部 喘口氣，再出發(fā) 劉剛 分析員，sac 執(zhí)業(yè)證書編號：s0080512030003 自我們 2012 年 9 月底建議投資者布局中國經(jīng)濟復蘇以來（請參考 2012 年 9 月 23 日發(fā)布的布局復蘇：2012 年四季 度 h 股投資策略，恒生國企指數(shù)（hscei）一路高歌猛進，漲幅達到 22%。其中近期表現(xiàn)較為突出，自我們 12 月 9 日發(fā)布上期 h 股策略雙周報買在當下以來，恒生國企指數(shù)在過去四周飆升 9%（圖表 1）。從各

2、板塊表現(xiàn)來看， 蜂擁而入的海外資金首先將目光鎖定在對經(jīng)濟復蘇更為敏感同時估值又偏低的周期性板塊，隨后于 11 月中旬果斷轉(zhuǎn) 向估值相對較低的金融板塊（圖表 2）。這種板塊輪動走勢完全符合我們此前提出的超配內(nèi)需周期股和金融股，同時低 配防御型板塊的投資建議。 展望未來，我們預計中國經(jīng)濟復蘇上半年仍將繼續(xù)，下半年也有望見到更多改革方面的具體措施，由此，我們?nèi)匀徽J 為 h 股市場在中期內(nèi)存在上漲空間（相關(guān)更多詳細分析請參考我們于 11 月 25 日發(fā)布的 2013 年 h 股投資策略展望上 半年看復蘇，下半年看改革。但是，就短期而言，我們觀點趨于謹慎，認為 h 股短期內(nèi)下行風險高于上漲風險。從 短期

3、戰(zhàn)術(shù)性交易的角度，我們建議投資者獲利回吐基本面欠佳而又在過去幾個月漲幅居前的股票，并逐步轉(zhuǎn)向表現(xiàn)落 后的優(yōu)質(zhì)股（我們在第七頁圖表 19 中列出了 2012 年 9 月 5 日以來 h 股市場表現(xiàn)最佳與最差的股票供投資者參考） 具體分析和理由如下： 1) h 股市場短期內(nèi)看起來繃得較緊。一方面，恒生國企指數(shù) 14 天相對強弱指數(shù)（rsi）飆升至 78 的超買水平（圖 表 3），指數(shù)要進一步上行，需要更為強勁的基本面和更加熱烈的市場情緒來支撐，而我們認為這兩個因素短期內(nèi) 看起來出現(xiàn)的可能性不大。另一方面，h 股市場整體估值 12 個月動態(tài)市盈率目前已經(jīng)達到 10.3 倍，與 9 月 5 日 的 8

4、.4 倍相比，短短 4 個月估值擴張高達 22%，與我們?nèi)A段股息貼現(xiàn)模型得出的合理市盈率 10.5 倍亦相去不遠。 此外，剔除金融股，非金融板塊整體市盈率也已攀升至 12.4 倍，幾乎與歷史平均水平持平（圖表 4）。從具體板塊 來看，多數(shù)非金融板塊的估值達到或已超過歷史平均水平（圖表 44）。我們完全理解市場估值的確有可能繼續(xù)擴 張并超過當前基本面所能支撐的水平，但我們?nèi)哉J為短期內(nèi)追漲的潛在收益與所承擔的風險不匹配，我們還是希 望堅持一直以來的估值法則。 2) 當前基本面不支持股市短期內(nèi)繼續(xù)大幅上揚。中國方面，我們注意到 12 月份制造業(yè) pmi 為 50.6，與 11 月份持平， 結(jié)束了

5、8 月份以來持續(xù)攀升的勢頭，主要是由于新訂單維持不變而產(chǎn)量和原材料庫存出現(xiàn)下滑（圖表 5）。相應地， 中金宏觀組預計 12 月份工業(yè)增加值、固定資產(chǎn)投資和社會零售總額等主要宏觀經(jīng)濟指標漲幅均出現(xiàn)小幅回落態(tài)勢 （圖表 9，主要宏觀經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)將最早從本周四 1 月 10 日開始發(fā)布）。不可否認，此次 12 月份宏觀數(shù)據(jù)可能表現(xiàn)不 佳主要是受年末季節(jié)性因素影響；事實上，我們預計 3 月 915 日的下一次主要宏觀數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布時經(jīng)濟指標將重拾升 勢。但是，我們認為即將公布的較為疲弱的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)難以在短期內(nèi)支撐股市進一步大幅走高。從全球范圍來看， 盡管主要經(jīng)濟體公布的宏觀數(shù)據(jù)表現(xiàn)良好，但我們發(fā)現(xiàn)隨著市場預期持續(xù)

6、高漲，美國和歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟指標好于預期 的現(xiàn)象正在快速消退（圖表 6），這也同樣表明短期內(nèi)基本面支撐力度正逐步趨弱。 3) 美聯(lián)儲近期對 qe 的表態(tài)有些低于市場預期，可能會引發(fā)市場波動。香港時間 1 月 4 日凌晨公布的 12 月 11-12 日 美聯(lián)儲公開市場委員會（fomc）會議紀要顯示，多數(shù)投票委員預計當前的資產(chǎn)購買方案（qe）將于 2013 年下 半年結(jié)束?？紤]到美聯(lián)儲委員們當前預計至少到 2014 年美國失業(yè)率仍將明顯高于 6.5%的門檻值，而通脹率直到 2015 年也都將低于 2.5%的門檻值（圖表 7），此次 fomc 會議紀要顯示美聯(lián)儲對于貨幣政策寬松的態(tài)度略低于市 場預期。中金

7、海外宏觀經(jīng)濟學家維持 2013 年全年美聯(lián)儲都將維持 qe 的基準情形，但指出如果勞動力市場復蘇超 出預期，下半年美聯(lián)儲對國債的購買速度可能放緩甚至完全停止。我們理解目前市場較為樂觀的情緒在相當程度 上是基于投資者認為美聯(lián)儲將持續(xù)購買資產(chǎn)，一旦這樣的判斷出現(xiàn)不利的調(diào)整，勢將引發(fā)不必要的市場波動。實 際上，近期我們已經(jīng)看到黃金價格明顯下滑，與過去一個月股市的大漲呈背離之勢。從過去四年的規(guī)律來看，此 種背離出現(xiàn)后，接下來股市往往會出現(xiàn)回調(diào)（圖表 8） 此外，我們在本篇報告中還對 b 股轉(zhuǎn) h 股做了一個專題研究，并在圖表 17 中列出了需密切關(guān)注的 b 股名單。更多詳 細分析請參考第 46 頁專題

8、部分“b 股轉(zhuǎn) h 股專題：背景原因、主要流程及其他潛在轉(zhuǎn)板公司”。 注釋：此報告為 h 股策略雙周報 “taking a breath before going on”的中文翻譯版，原文以英文撰寫，已于的中文翻譯版，原文以英文撰寫，已于 1 月 6 日正式出版。 請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律聲明 apr-11apr-12apr-10apr-09apr-08jul-08 jul-09jul-10jul-11jul-12 jan-08jan-09jan-10jan-11jan-12jan-13oct-08oct-09oct-10oct-11oct-12jun-05jun-06jun-07ju

9、n-08jun-09jun-10jun-11 dec-04dec-05dec-06dec-07dec-08dec-09dec-10dec-11jun-12 oct-12apr-09apr-10apr-11apr-12 jul-09jul-10jul-11jul-12 jan-09jan-10jan-11jan-12jan-13oct-09oct-10oct-11 dec-12 16 4 平 us 中金公司研究部：2013 年 1 月 7 日 本周關(guān)注圖表 圖表 1: 自我們建議投資者布局中國復蘇以來，h 股已反 圖表 2: 大量的國際資金首先涌入對經(jīng)濟復蘇敏感且估 彈 22%；從我們發(fā)布 h

10、股策略雙周報買在當下以來， 值便宜的周期性板塊，隨后從 11 月中旬開始果斷移至金 h 股過去 4 周中上漲 9%融板塊 (index level) 13,000 hang seng china enterprise index (hscei) (rebased index) 140 cyclicalsdefensivesfinancialsmsci china(us$bn) 20 12,000 position for a recovery: 4q12 strategy are you positioned for a industrial profitsnow the 130 market

11、 leadership rotated from cyclicals to financials financials led cyclicals financials +30% 11,000 10,000 enjoy the policy-driven rally recovery? 12 questions over to accelerate, more sweet spot to come in 4q12 1h recovery we maintain over-weight on cpic, equal-weight abc (01288.hk, buy, tp hk$4.21) c

12、rcb (03618.hk, accum, tp hk$4.7) hsbc (00005.hk, accum, tp hk$85.6) bochk (02388.hk, accum, tp hk$26.1) dbs (dbs.sg, accum, tp sg$16.5) insuranceinsurers ctih, and under-weight china life and nci. 2. in the medium-/long-term, we still have high confidence on life insurers, which cpic (02601.hk, buy,

13、 tp hk$30.53) ctih (00966.hk, buy, tp hk$18) are currently trading at 1.1x 2013e life p/ev, indicating relatively high investment value. our order of preference for h-shares: china life, ctih, cpic and nci. 1. investors can take profit on h-share brokers for now and wait for next entry point securit

14、iessecurities in early-1q13, considering seasonal liquidity improvement, possible discussions on amendment of the securities law, further loosening of capital requirement, and breakthrough on derivative business. 1. we expect mild recovery of chinese real estate market and stable policy real estater

15、eal estate environment in 2013, and tier-1/-2 cities will continue outperforming. property stocks will likely rise by 1015% in 2013. 2. 2013 stock picks: 1) longfor, crland, coli (leading players with strong executions and solid balance sheet); 2) sunac china, sino ocean (top tier cities focused); 3

16、) greentown (further re-rating); 4) shenzhen investment (asset injection); 5) franshion (quality commercial properties in prime locations of tier-1 cities). longfor (00960.hk, buy, tp hk$19.5) sunac china (01918.hk, buy, tp hk$6.9) shenzhen investment (00604.hk, buy, tp hk$3.99) greentown (03900.hk,

17、 buy, tp hk$16.8) sunac china, longfor, shenzhen investment, greentown are 4 conviction buys. 1. in medium-/long-term, more favorable policies on shale gas are expected. 2. also, the government is showing a supportive attitude towards foreign investment in domestic shale gas resources, despite the a

18、bsence of specific policy. we expect to see foreign capital take part in chinas shale gas exploration via psc. 3. high-end oilfield service and equipment providers presenting buy on dip cosl(02883.hk, accum, tp hk$15.9) anton (03337.hk, buy, tp hk$2.5) hilong (01623.hk, buy, tp hk$2.6) energyopportu

19、nities, such as cosl, anton, and hilong. 1. h-share coal stocks should stay range bound near term, given reasonable valuations. yanzhou coal (01171.hk, reduce, tp hk$12.7) 2. in the medium term, we maintain our trading orientated strategy for the sector, with shenhuas range hk$27.137.8, china coals

20、hk$6.59.0, yanzhous hk$9.213.9, shougang resources hk$2.53.6 and hidilis hk$1.82.7. 1. the tissue paper industry is unlikely to suffer from substantial overcapacity over the next three years. 2. we are optimistic about the industrys long-term growth prospects, and believe hengan and vinda will conti

21、nue to enhance their competitive strengths through brand building and channel expansion, and face new growth drivers after entering the disposable sanitary products market. 1. we rank gold stocks lower near term in our metals space, as gold prices may consolidate, and the stock price may decline fur

22、ther. 2. china moly and jxc rank higher near term, zijin and zhaojin would face china shenhua (01088.hk, buy, tp hk$35.2) vinda (03331.hk, buy, tp hk$13.5) hengan (01044.hk, buy, tp hk$85) china moly (03993.hk, accum, tp hk$3.4) hidili (01393.hk, reduce, tp hk$2.2) shougang res (00639.hk, reduce, tp

23、 materials mining construction engineering pressure. 3. chalco still ranks the last among metal stocks due to continued losses, which can hardly improve in the near term. 1. national average cement price fell 0.91% in the past two weeks as most regions in the north entered low season. 2. cement stoc

24、ks in eastern/central regions could continue to outperform in the next 36 months. we like cnbm (5.6x 2013e p/e) and conch (12.7x). 1. among h-shares, an steel and magangs valuation recovered to 0.7x and 0.6x p/b, at a 20% premium and 5% discount to a-shares. 2. we believe the expectation for economi

25、c recovery has been fully priced in; since industrial earnings can hardly expand and results can hardly improve, there is some room for shorting. 1. we advise focusing on stocks driven by central government policies in 1h13 and those with local-government impetus in 2h13 (e.g. cccc-h). 2. railway co

26、nstruction is likely to outperform until 1q13; stay with crg 2) improving market shares of luxury cars and strong european/us brands; and 3) the auto accumulate skyworth and tcl multimedia on rising smart tv popularity and strong sales growth. 1. watch opportunities in 1q13 and 3q13. we are not opti

27、mistic on industry fundamentals and advise investors to focus more on timing and stock selection. 2. for h-shares, we prefer intime (breakthroughs in shopping malls and online shopping) and golden eagle. sunart has the most solid fundamentals among haier electronics (01169.hk, buy, tp hk$11.5) skywo

28、rth (00751.hk, accum, tp hk$5) tcl (01070.hk, accum, tp hk4.9) intime (01833.hk, buy, tp hk$12.25) parkson (03368.hk, hold, tp hk$5.85) golden eagle (03308.hk, accum, tp hk$18.85) gome (00493.hk, sell, hk tp$ 0.77) supermarket companies, but valuation and expectations are elevated. we do not like go

29、me and parkson. 1. overall 1h12 results lower than expected with terminal sales under pressure.anta (02020.hk, sell, tp hk$4.0) textiles cu launched its on october 18. telecom services telecom services we believe the mass-market war is the right strategy and is positive to cu and ct, but quite negat

30、ive to cm. 2. we are negative on cm in 4q as the mass-market war has started and iphone5 china telecom (00728.hk, buy, tp hk$6.0) china mobile (00941.hk, reduce, tp hk$75.0) will be launched. utilities city utilities wind: sector headwinds remain the obstacle to a sustainable rally. order of prefere

31、nce: huaneng renewables and longyuan power. gas: we expect the sectors strong performance to continue in 2012. order of preference: behl, cr gas, enn, towngas and china gas. water and environmental: policy likely to support healthy growth, and water tariff hikes might be the catalyst. order of prefe

32、rence: cei, bew, gdte, gdi and cwa. 1. we expect thermal output to grow by 01% yoy and thermal utilization to drop behl (00392.hk, buy, tp hk$60) cei (00257.hk, buy, tp hk$4.8) bew (00371.hk, buy, tp hk$2.2) gdte (01296. hk, buy, tp hk$2) cr gas (01193.hk, buy, tp hk$17.0) enn (02688.hk, accum, tp h

33、k$32.0) towngas (01083.hk, accum, tp hk$6) cwa (00855.hk, hold, tp hk$2.0) by some 6% yoy in 2012. we maintain our 2012/13 china power consumption growth forecast to be +5.5% and +7.0% yoy. 2. we reiterate buy on huaneng due to its coastal area exposure, decent dividend payout and nature of pure the

34、rmal generator. we also maintain buy on cr power huaneng (00902.hk, buy, tp hk$7.0) crp (00836.hk, buy, tp hk$20) with its visible profitability improvement and healthy balance sheet. we maintain hold on datang and huadian. 資料來源：中金公司研究部 請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律聲明 9 may-12 feb-12 mar-12aug-12 apr-12jun-12 ju

35、l-12 nov-12 jan-12 sep-12oct-12dec-12 may-12 feb-12aug-12jan-12jun-12mar-12sep-12oct-12 apr-12 nov-12 dec-12 jul-12 jan-12 may-12 aug-12 jun-12mar-12 sep-12oct-12 apr-12 nov-12 dec-12 jul-12 feb-12 中金公司研究部：2013 年 1 月 7 日 市場表現(xiàn) 圖表 22: h 股在過去兩周中上漲 5.4%，其中金融和周期 性板塊領跑市場 圖表 23: msci 中國指數(shù) 2012 年上漲 18.7%，20

36、13 年 年初以來已上漲 4% div. financials insurance real estate cons. disc.7.4% 9.8% 12.4% 11.6% msci china index level 70 2012: +18.7%, 2013 ytd return: +4% 65 52-wk high: jan 3, 2013 (hk$mn) 100 90 80 capital goods banks 6.9% 6.4% 60 70 60 materials msci china i.t. transportation energy utilities healthcare

37、 telcos cons. stap. 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 3.3% 2.7% 5.4% 5.3% 4.6% 6.3% 2-wk performance 55 50 45 40 52-wk performance 52-wk low: sep 5, 2012 +27% 50 40 30 20 10 0 圖表 24: 半導體、資本市場和保險子板塊過去兩周上漲 幅度超過 10% 圖表 25: 防御性板塊如醫(yī)療保健設備、食品和制藥等明 顯跑輸市場 semicon. capital markets insurance real estate mgmt machinery marine ele

38、ctronic equip. specialty retail ind. conglomerates 9.8% 9.6% 9.1% 9.1% 8.5% 8.5% 11.6% 15.0% 13.7% healthcare equip. food products pharmaceuticals gas utilities wireless telecom airlines food retailing energy equip. healthcare services -1.2% -0.7% -0.6% -0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 1.1% 2.4% 2.5% metals & mining

39、7.4% 2-wk performance oil & gas 2-wk performance 3.3% 圖表 26: 過去兩周中，msci 中國指數(shù)周期性板塊明顯跑 贏防御性板塊 圖表 27: 從 2012 年 12 月中旬以來，msci 中國指數(shù)小 盤股跑贏大盤股 (rebased)cyclicals over defensives (rhs)mxcn cyclicalsmxcn defensives(ppt)(rebased) large over small (rhs)mxcn large capmxcn small cap (ppt) 130 52-wk performance c

40、yclicals outperform 40 130 large-caps outperform 12 120 110 30 20 120 8 4 100 10 0 110 100 0 90 -10 -4 80 70 defensives outperform -20 -30 90 80 52-wk performance small-caps outperform -8 -12 資料來源：bloomberg, factset, msci, 中金公司研究部 注：“周期性板塊”包括可選消費、資本品、能源、it、原材料及交通；“防御性板塊”包括日常消費、醫(yī)療保健、電信及公共事業(yè)。 請仔細閱讀在本報

41、告尾部的重要法律聲明 10 4% 中金公司研究部：2013 年 1 月 7 日 圖表 28: 過去兩周表現(xiàn)最佳 / 最差的 10 只股票（市 值 us$20 億美元, 日均成交量us$200 萬美元） 圖表 29: 年初至今表現(xiàn)最佳 / 最差的 10 只股票（市 值 us$20 億美元, 日均成交量us$200 萬美元） company name top performers hopson development holdings ltd. ticker 754 hk sector financials 2w return 35% ytd return 30% company name top

42、 performers hopson development holdings ltd. ticker 754 hk sector financials 2w return 35% ytd return 30% china merchants property development co. ltd 200024 chfinancials34%4% china rongsheng heavy industries group1101 hkindustrials13%25% citic pacific ltd. csg holding co. ltd. biostime internationa

43、l holdings ltd. yantai changyu pioneer wine co., ltd. gome electrical appliances holding ltd. baoxin auto china everbright ltd. shimao property holdings ltd. 267 hk 200012 ch 1112 hk 200869 ch 493 hk 1293 hk 165 hk 813 hk industrials materials consumer staples consumer staples consumer discretionary

44、 consumer discretionary financials financials 28% 26% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% 19% 9% 17% 10% 23% 15% 2% 13% gome electrical appliances holding ltd. glorious property holdings ltd. giant interactive group, inc. citic pacific ltd. gcl-poly energy holdings ltd. guangzhou r&f properties co. ltd. chow sa

45、ng sang holdings international ltd. biostime international holdings ltd. 493 hk 845 hk ga us 267 hk 3800 hk 2777 hk 116 hk 1112 hk consumer discretionary financials information technology industrials information technology financials consumer discretionary consumer staples 22% 28% 20% 28% 15% 18% 14

46、% 24% 23% 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% 17% 17% bottom performers bottom performers mindray medical international ltd. sun art retail group ltd. mr us 6808 hk health care consumer staples -5% -5% -1% -4% renhe commercial holdings co. ltd. tingyi ci holdings corp. 1387 hk 322 hk financials consumer staples 15%

47、 -2% -7% -5% hutchison telecommunications hong kong hold215 hktelecommunication servic-5%-3% sun art retail group ltd.6808 hkconsumer staples-5%-4% loccitane international sa973 hkconsumer discretionary-4%0% hutchison telecommunications hong kong hold215 hktelecommunication servic-5%-3% want want ch

48、ina holdings ltd. tingyi ci holdings corp. hkt trust & hkt ltd pccw ltd. china southern airlines co. ltd. enn energy holdings ltd. 151 hk 322 hk 6823 hk 8 hk 1055 hk 2688 hk consumer staples consumer staples telecommunication servic telecommunication servic industrials utilities -3% -2% -2% -2% -2%

49、-1% -2% -5% -1% -1% -1% -2% haitong securities co., ltd. want want china holdings ltd. television broadcasts ltd. enn energy holdings ltd. byd co. ltd. hkt trust & hkt ltd 6837 hk 151 hk 511 hk 2688 hk 1211 hk 6823 hk financials consumer staples consumer discretionary utilities consumer discretionar

50、y telecommunication servic 7% -3% 1% -1% 13% -2% -3% -2% -2% -2% -2% -1% 圖表 30: msci 中國指數(shù)各板塊過去兩周表現(xiàn)最佳/最差的 10 只股票 sector tickercompany name 2w return ytd return tickercompany name 2w return ytd return top performersbottom performers consumer discretionary493 hkgome electrical appliances holding ltd.21

51、.5%23%489 hkdongfeng motor group co ltd.0.0%1% consumer staples220 hkuni-president china holdings ltd.10.1%8%6808 hk sun art retail group ltd.-5.0%-4% energy1171 hk yanzhou coal mining co., ltd.11.6%9%900948 ch inner mongolia yitai coal co. ltd.0.6%1% financials165 hkchina everbright ltd.20.1%2%2000

52、02 ch china vanke co. ltd.2.7%0% health care2607 hk shanghai pharmaceutical holding co. ltd.3.5%1066 hk shandong weigao group medical polymer-1.2%-1% industrials2039 hk cimc38.6%29%1055 hk china southern airlines co. ltd.-1.8%-1% information technology3800 hk gcl-poly energy holdings ltd.15.0%18%700

53、 hktencent holdings ltd.4.6%4% materials347 hkangang steel co. ltd.18.7%15%2314 hk lee & man paper manufacturing ltd.-0.2%-0% telecommunication services552 hkchina communications services corp. ltd.6.2%3%941 hkchina mobile ltd.0.6%0% utilities916 hkchina longyuan power group corp. ltd.5.9%4%2688 hk

54、enn energy holdings ltd.-1.3%-2% msci china2039 hk cimc38.6%29%6808 hk sun art retail group ltd.-5.0%-4% 圖表 31: 新興市場整體跑贏，其中中國市場表現(xiàn)強勁， shcomp 上漲 5.7%，中國 adrs 指數(shù)漲 5.1%，s&p 500 升 2.5%，而歐洲漲 2.4% 圖表 32: 大宗商品表現(xiàn)分化，其中原油上漲 2.1%，黃金 在美聯(lián)儲 12 月份會議紀要公布后次日下跌 2% japan (nky) china (shcomp) msci china (mxcn) usx china

55、 (hxc) indonesia (jci) hong kong (hsi) taiwan (twse) thailand (set) india (sensex) us (nasdaq) us (s&p500) uk (ukx) europe (stoxx 600) australia (as51) brazil (ibx) singapore (fssti) 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2% 2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 5.7% 5.3% 5.1% 7.5%copper crude oil lead gasoline baltic

56、dry silver nickel crb gold heating oil aluminum soybean-2.9% -0.1% -0.2% -1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 3.2% us (dow jones) south korea (kospi) canada (sptsx) russian (micex)0.0% 1.9% 1.6% 1.3% 2-wk performance corn natural gas wheat -4.8% -5.7% -3.1% 2-wk performance 資料來源：bloomberg, facts

57、et, msci, 中金公司研究部 請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律聲明 11 jun-05jun-06jun-07jun-08jun-09jun-10jun-11 dec-04dec-05dec-06dec-07dec-08dec-09dec-10dec-11jun-12dec-12 transportation div.financials insurance mscichina healthcare capitalgoods transportation div. financials healthcare capitalgoods aug-11mar-10 may-10 feb-11m

58、ay-11sep-10sep-11nov-11mar-12aug-12 apr-11 jul-10 jun-10apr-12 jul-11 jan-11jan-12jun-12 jul-12 dec-10dec-11nov-12 oct-10oct-12dec-12 cons.stap. insurance realestate utilities i.t. mscichinacons.stap. materials materials cons.disc. cons.disc. utilitiesenergy telcosenergy telcosbanks banks i.t. 5 中金公

59、司研究部：2013 年 1 月 7 日 盈利與估值 圖表 33: msci 中國指數(shù)前推 12 個月市盈率目前為 10.3 倍，非金融板塊為 12.4 倍 圖表 34: msci 中國指數(shù)資本品板塊 2013 年預測 eps 上調(diào)幅度最大，主要受益于中集集團和中聯(lián)重科 12m fwd p/e (x)msci chinamxcn ex. financialsmxcn ex. financials & energy capital goods 0.7% 30 25 20 +1 std. dev. = 16x utilities materials transportation diversified financials i.t. telcos banks -0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 15 13.4 msci china -0.0% 10 average = 12.6x average valuations are since 2004 -1 std. dev. = 9.3x 12.4 10.3 energy healthcare cons. disc. cons. stap. insurance real estate -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.4% -0.5% 2w change 2012e eps 2013