環(huán)球商務(wù)觀察

1、de-risking the broadband business model industry outlook 2012 , november 24th 2011, london. dr. kim kyllesbech larsen, technology economics technology, deutsche telekom. chan ging busin ess model s 2 mobile operator garden cs voice sms mobile data network sim billing 50 700 mhz cloud sim “new” billi

2、ng whitespace ott apps coolstuff smartdevices regulation dr. kim kyllesbech larsen, industry outlook 2012, november 24th 2011, london, uk. 3 a typical mobile data traffic day in europe. 00:00 10:00 12:0022:0017:00 illustration 6:008:00 voice data workhome on the go home on the go 4 eu broadband for

3、all & everything digital agenda europe 2020. 2013 +2 yrs 2011 now all europeans have access to broadband (wireless) all have access to 30 mbps or higher. 2020 +9 yrs 50+% hh subscribe to 100 mbps. 80% hspa pop coverage 60% 3g adaptation 20% hspa adaptation 95% dsl coverage 20% + 100% lte + ftt-enb +

4、 50% ftth / docsisx + iot 1 1 iot = internet of things. closing coverage gap 5 digital agenda europe 2020 . what does it mean. by 2013 at least 30k hspa bts to cover the eu 20+% pop gap. by 2020 most (if not all) base stations support lte advanced (15 todays fixed broadband earnings. internet-of-thi

5、ngs (iot) network for the 15+ billion projected devices1 1 in europe for every mobile device there will be 20+ iot devices in 2020. 6 900 mhz 235 mhz (gsm) 1800 mhz 275 mhz (gsm) 2100 mhz 260 mhz 3g core band 3g 555555555555 2600 mhz 270 mhz + 50 mhz (tdd) (tech neutral) 70 spectrum challenge 2012 -

6、 pre-auction days. 10 fbo 1 20 fbo 2 1020 2g (3g) 3g 2g (3g) 3g 2g (3g) 3g 2g (lte) lte 2g (lte) lte 2g (lte) lte 2g (lte) lte 2g (lte) ltelteltelteltelte illustration uplink only all fdd un-used spectrum mno 1mno 2mno 3 note: mno = mobile network operator & fbo = fixed-broadband operator. 10 7 900

7、mhz 235 mhz (gsm) 1800 mhz 275 mhz (gsm) 2100 mhz 260 mhz 3g core band 3g 555555555555 2600 mhz 270 mhz + 50 mhz (tdd) (tech neutral) 70 spectrum challenge 2012 - pre-auction days. 10 fbo 1 20 fbo 2 1020 2g (3g) 3g 2g (3g) 3g 2g (3g) 3g 2g (lte) lte 2g (lte) lte 2g (lte) lte 2g (lte) lte 2g (lte) lt

8、elteltelteltelte illustration uplink only all fdd un-used spectrum mno 1mno 2mno 3 note: mno = mobile network operator & fbo = fixed-broadband operator. 10 billions of euro in mobile network assets. 2g and 3g tightly integrated. by 2012 still more than 20% on 2g. no 100% 3g pop/geo coverage. 8 900 m

9、hz 235 mhz (tech neutral) 1800 mhz 275 mhz (tech neutral) 2100 mhz 260 mhz 3g core band 3g 5 mno 2 mno 3 mno 1 3g3g 555555555555 2600 mhz 270 mhz + 50 mhz (tdd) (tech neutral) 70 spectrum challenge 2012major disruption possible. 10 fbo 1 20 fbo 2 1020 2g (3g) 3g2g (3g) 3g2g (3g) 3g 555555 2g (lte) 5

10、 lte 2g (lte) lte 2g (lte) lte 2g (lte) 555555 lte 5 2g (lte) lteltelteltelte 555555 lte 5 800 mhz 230 mhz (tech neutral) lte 5 lteltelteltelte 55555illustration uplink only all fdd note: mno = mobile network operator & fbo = fixed-broadband operator. greenfield reservation secure min. 210 mhz secur

11、e min. 210 mhz secure min. 220+ mhz secure min. 220+ mhz mno 2 loose spectrum game! 10 9 900 mhz 235 mhz (tech neutral) 1800 mhz 275 mhz (tech neutral) 2100 mhz 260 mhz 3g core band 3g 5 mno 2 mno 3 mno 1 3g3g 555555555555 2600 mhz 270 mhz + 50 mhz (tdd) (tech neutral) 70 spectrum challenge 2012majo

12、r disruption possible. 10 fbo 1 20 fbo 2 1020 2g (3g) 3g2g (3g) 3g2g (3g) 3g 555555 2g (lte) 5 lte 2g (lte) lte 2g (lte) lte 2g (lte) 555555 lte 5 2g (lte) lteltelteltelte 555555 lte 5 800 mhz 230 mhz (tech neutral) lte 5 lteltelteltelte 55555illustration uplink only all fdd note: mno = mobile netwo

13、rk operator & fbo = fixed-broadband operator. greenfield reservation secure min. 210 mhz secure min. 210 mhz secure min. 220+ mhz secure min. 220+ mhz mno 2 loose spectrum game!new entrant buying existing incumbent spectrum. possible (catastrophic) loss of spectrum. (catastrophic) loss of value and

14、operation. loss of future growth possibilities in lte. 10 10 de-risking disruptive spectrum moves. spectrum partnership alliance(s). value at risk game rather than incremental value add play. higher degree of network in-dependence network factory / sharing. 11 spectral demand could exceed spectral e

15、fficiency between 2014 - 2016. when data demand exceeds spectral efficiency gains. ”houston we have problems”. 1 mobile operator with (1) 20mhz 800mhz (lte), (2) 20mhz 900mhz (2ghspa),(3) 50mhz 1800mhz (2glte), (4) 30mhz 2100mhz (hspa+). total spectrum position 120 mhz. illustration of the european

16、market 1 (*) realwireless report for ofcom,: 4g capacity gains, final report, january 2011. 3g lte lte-a conversion leapfrog network capacity, e.g., densification smart antennas early lte deployment price, control & policy. more spectrum. the spectrum crunch. a lot more complexity, capex and opex no

17、t good at all! 12 ott mobile apps impact. mobile apps “attacks” the highest margin services. 22.4 1 12.7 1 source 2010 & 2015 pyramid research september 2011 western europe. 2010a mno centric arpu 15.7 voice 3.4 sms 3.3 data 6.5 voice 6.2 1 data by 2015 more than 70% of users have a smartphone arpu

18、13.0 voice 3.8 sms 2015e mobile centric arpu 6.2 1 data 23.0 13 ott mobile apps impact. mobile apps “attacks” the highest margin services. 22.4 1 12.7 1 source 2010 & 2015 pyramid research september 2011 western europe. 2010a mno centric arpu 2015e apps centric arpu 15.7 voice 3.4 sms 3.3 data 6.5 v

19、oice 6.2 1 data ? by 2015 more than 70% of users have a smartphone + 9.7+ data arpu arpu moip death to sms. +43% voip home & maybe work. 14 traffic & revenue changes in the last 12 month. illustration of the european market declining minutesdeclining sms increasing datadeclining arpu (and top-line)

20、#customers#customers #customers#customers 15 how to uplift the mobile data business case. demand for new revenue, partnerships & collaboration models. economics of mobile data free cash flow 20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 mobile business model breakdown innovation increased spectrum av

21、ailability. early lte deployment. mobile fixed partnership models. structural off-loading1 network apis. smarter & network friendlier devices. femto cells. network aware apps & devices internet of things location / notifications / payments customer insights new revenue streams hspa only, no lte hspa

22、 + lte w. 50% off-load from 2012 illustration of the european market 1 note: off-loading here means any traffic migration from legacy technology or legacy spectrum bands to something else. lte 16 new mobile revenue opportunities making up lost. how big will the piece of the cake be? mobile revenues

23、$1,200 bn internet of things $1,200 bn ? social media $30+ bn mobile entertain $55+ bn online ads $100+ bn handsets $340+ bn apps $12+ bn 1 sources: apps from berg insight (2011), social media from gartner (2011), mobile entertainment from juniper research (2011), online adds from magnaglobal (2011)

24、, handsets from marketsandmarkets (2011), internet of things from gsma (2011). 17 synched notificationad-hoc optimized route vision - network aware mobile apps (1 of 2). innovation is important remedy to mitigate risk. optimized service delivery traffic profile voice data primary indoor usage off-lo

25、ad possibilities. off-busy-hour in-fill delivery. n events vs 1 event 18 vision - network aware mobile apps (2 of 2). collaboration across network, device and apps. smart (interconnected) devices self-optimized & cognisant network network optimized os & apps 19 when network is not a differentiator.

26、substantial financial benefits. not a solution to spectrum crunch. complex governance. decreasing margins & increasing cash pressure network consolidation & new partnerships. sharing logic experience. economics total opex 100% technology network 10% ran saving ran 7% cluster opex 40% rollout 5+ year

27、s ltehspa+hspa umts + gsm (lte) significant capex prevention. substantial opex prevention. best network more for less. rollout little capex benefits. substantial opex savings. high write-off & restructure cost. steady state capex prevention (sharing of modernization). substantial opex savings. minor write-off & contract termination cost. modernization 20 transparent off-loading strategies. inside-out coverage with in-home backhaul connectivity (i.e., via vdsl, fiber, ). honest always-best-connected offers. fixed mobile convergence. technology & business reasons for fmc. mobile & fixe