中國酒店行業(yè)投資前景預(yù)測分析報告【 China Hotel Market Outlook】

1、china topics to cover key market assessment china hotel market sentiment surveyy the big picture for china in 2010 key market outlooksource: str global, horwath htlkey market assessmentkey market occupancy trendschange in occupancy from december 2007 to feb 2010beijingshanghaiguangzhoushenzhenshhhan

2、gzhou-17.2-11.7+2.6-6.464-11.1-11 1sanyatianjinchengdudaliand lichongqing-8.3-11.8-2.4-5.88-7.2-7 2note: percentage point changesource: str global, horwath htlkey market rnd growth trendschange in room night demand volume from december 2007 to feb 2010beijingshanghaiguangzhoushenzhenshhhangzhou-1%-4

3、%34%20%15%sanyatianjinchengdudaliand lichongqing20%11%25%22%37%source: str global, horwath htlkey market assessmentall charts & data presented as a rolling 12-month averagesource: str global, horwath htlkey market assessmentall charts & data presented as a rolling 12-month averagesource: str global,

4、 horwath htlbeijing supply & demand trendshotels52rooms23,097source: str global, horwath htlbeijing room night demand volumesource: str global, horwath htlbeijing room night demand volume12,010 april 200812% decline10,584 may 2009source: str global, horwath htlbeijing room night demand volume11% gro

5、wthsource: str global, horwath htlbeijing supply & demand trendssupply growth 33%rna from 17,364 to 23,097demand growth -1%rnd from 11,845 to 11,776source: str global, horwath htlbeijing supply & demand trendssupply growth 33%rna from 17,364 to 23,097demand growth -1%rnd from 11,845 to 11,776supply

6、& demand gapgrown from 5,519 to 11,3215 519 11 321occupancy from68.2% 51.0%68 2% to 51 0%source: str global, horwath htlbeijing adr trendrmb 1,104 dec 2008rmb 820 feb 201026% declinesource: str global, horwath htlbeijing revpar trendrmb 709 april 2008prmb 406 nov 200943% declinesource: str global, h

7、orwath htlbeijing 2010 outlookpositives improving global economicenvironment recent strong demandggrowth relatively limited newsupply international demandshould return in biggernumberssource: str global, horwath htlnegatives room rates still in adownward trend international corporatedemand likely to

8、 remainprice sensitive although limited supply new entrants will dampenoccupancy growth and keeproom rates competitiveshanghai supply & demand trendshotels59rooms24,700source: str global, horwath htlshanghai room night demand volumesource: str global, horwath htlshanghai room night demand volume13,6

9、79 jan 200813% decline11,860 june 2009source: str global, horwath htlshanghai room night demand volume10% growthsource: str global, horwath htlshanghai supply & demand trendssupply growth 17%rna from 21,046 to 24,700,demand growth -4%rnd from 13,574 to 13,031source: str global, horwath htlshanghai s

10、upply & demand trendssupply growth 17%rna from 21,046 to 24,700,demand growth -4%rnd from 13,574 to 13,031supply & demand gapgrown from 7,472 to 11,6697 472 11 669occupancy from64.5% 52.8%64 5% to 52 8%source: str global, horwath htlshanghai adr trendrmb 1,122 aug 2008,grmb 851 feb 201024% declineso

11、urce: str global, horwath htlshanghai revpar trendrmb 708 jan 2008rmb 439 nov 200938% declinesource: str global, horwath htlshanghai 2010 outlookpositives shanghai expo is creatingexcitement in the marketmarket.all tiers looking to benefit improvement in globaleconomic environment economic and finan

12、cialcentre, development ofcommercial sub centres,transportation infrastructureimprovementsnegatives supply will continue to growand impact the market still heavily reliant oninternational dittil demanddsources, particularly at thetop tier level rate weakness continues gov tgovt trying to stop priceg

13、ouging post expo concernssource: str global, horwath htlguangzhou supply & demand trendshotels15rooms5,490source: str global, horwath htlguangzhou room night demand volumesource: str global, horwath htlguangzhou room night demand volume34% growthsource: str global, horwath htlguangzhou supply & dema

14、nd trendssupply growth 28%rna from 4,287 to 5,490demand growth 34%rnd from 2,252 to 3,017source: str global, horwath htlguangzhou supply & demand trendssupply growth 28%rna from 4,287 to 5,490demand growth 34%rnd from 2,252 to 3,017supply & demand gapgrown from 2,035 to 2,4732 035 2 473occupancy fro

15、m52.5% 55.1%52 5% to 55 1%source: str global, horwath htlguangzhou adr trendrmb 804 dec 2008rmb 731 jan 20109% declinesource: str global, horwath htlguangzhou revpar trendrmb 415 dec 2008rmb 382 jul 20098% declinesource: str global, horwath htlguangzhou revpar trendrmb 415 dec 2008rmb 406 feb 2010so

16、urce: str global, horwath htlguangzhou 2010 outlookpositives global economic recoverywill aid canton fair korea is becoming a biggergggsource of demand for themarket asian games in novembermay offer a boost to end theyearnegatives new supply will dampenpotential for occupancygrowth limited rate inte

17、grity in themarket will make rategrowth difficult market yet to demonstrate itcan support high tierpropertiessource: str global, horwath htlshenzhen supply & demand trendshotels23rooms7,879source: str global, horwath htlshenzhen room night demand volumesource: str global, horwath htlshenzhen room ni

18、ght demand volume20% ggrowththsource: str global, horwath htlshenzhen supply & demand trendssupply growth 34%rna from 5 862 to 7,8795,862 7 879demand growth 20%rnd from 3,624 to 4,356source: str global, horwath htlshenzhen supply & demand trendssupply growth 34%rna from 5 862 to 7,8795,862 7 879dema

19、nd growth 20%rnd from 3,624 to 4,356supply & demand gapgrown from 2,238 to 3,5232 238 3 523occupancy from61.8% 55.4%61 8% to 55 4%source: str global, horwath htlshenzhen adr trendrmb 802 nov 2008rmb 749 jan 20107% declinesource: str global, horwath htlshenzhen revpar trendrmb 486 jul 2008rmb 391 oct

20、 200920% declinesource: str global, horwath htlshenzhen revpar trendrmb 486 jul 2008rmb 416 feb 2010source: str global, horwath htlshenzhen 2010 outlookpositives quality of new supply israising profile and quality ofmarket convention centre is goodquality and will improvemice demand for the city rat

21、e decline in 2009 was nottoo severenegatives some impact of new supplyin 2010 to dampenoccupancy growthsource: str global, horwath htlhangzhou supply & demand trendshotels15rooms4,642source: str global, horwath htlhangzhou room night demand volumesource: str global, horwath htlhangzhou room night de

22、mand volume15% growthsource: str global, horwath htlhangzhou supply & demand trendssupply growth 37%rna from 3,388 to 4,642demand growth 15%rnd from 2,327 to 2,665source: str global, horwath htlhangzhou supply & demand trendssupply growth 37%rna from 3,388 to 4,642demand growth 15%rnd from 2,327 to

23、2,665supply & demand gapgrown from 1,062 to 1,9771 062 1 977occupancy from68.7% 57.6%68 7% to 57 6%source: str global, horwath htlhangzhou adr trendrmb 665 march 2009rmb 642 sep 20094% declinesource: str global, horwath htlhangzhou adr trendrmb 665 march 2009rmb 659 feb 2010source: str global, horwa

24、th htlhangzhou revpar trendrmb 443 dec 2007rmb 363 sep 200918% declinesource: str global, horwath htlhangzhou 2010 outlookpositives some very nice propertiesopen or set to open shouldraise the profile of the market city fundamentals remainstrong attracts both highend corporate and leisuredemand mark

25、et is beginning toseparate geographicallynegatives significant supply coming intothe market will severely testthe depth and strength ofdemand qianjiang new cbddevelopment still an unknownas a hotel market areasource: str global, horwath htlsanya supply & demand trendshotels17rooms7,424source: str gl

26、obal, horwath htlsanya room night demand volumesource: str global, horwath htlsanya room night demand volume20% growthsource: str global, horwath htlsanya supply & demand trendssupply growth 39%rna from 5,337 to 7,424demand growth 20%rnd from 3,357 to 4,039source: str global, horwath htlsanya supply

27、 & demand trendssupply growth 39%rna from 5,337 to 7,424demand growth 20%rnd from 3,357 to 4,039supply & demand gapgrown from 1,980 t 3 385gf1 980 to 3,385occupancy from62.9% 54.6%62 9% to 54 6%source: str global, horwath htlsanya adr trend2 cny periods includedsource: str global, horwath htlsanya a

28、dr trendchinese new ychinyear p fperformanceadrfebruary 2007february 2008january 2009february 20101,4041,7821,6901 6902,402rnd3,9483,7144,6054 6055,011occ %74%72%63%74%source: str global, horwath htlsanya adr trendstrong rate & high occupancysource: str global, horwath htlsanya revpar trendrmb 507 s

29、ep 2009rmb 613 oct 2008source: str global, horwath htlsanya 2010 outlookpositives government goal to buildhainan as an internationaltourism island long term advantage asbeing only true tropicalbeach destination in china continued improvement inquality of supply continues tofboost profile and adr lev

30、elsnegatives limited international flightconnections will continue tobe an issue some negative perceptionof price gouging duringpeak periods no world-class tourismfacilities to support hoteldemand growthsource: str global, horwath htltianjin supply & demand trendshotels15rooms3,759source: str global

31、, horwath htltianjin room night demand volumesource: str global, horwath htltianjin room night demand volume11% growthsource: str global, horwath htltianjin room night demand volume10% growth8% growth6% declinesource: str global, horwath htltianjin supply & demand trendssupply growth 45%rna from 2,5

32、84 to 3,759demand growth 11%rnd from 1,299 to 1,444source: str global, horwath htltianjin supply & demand trendssupply growth 45%rna from 2,584 to 3,759demand growth 11%rnd from 1,299 to 1,444supply & demand gapgrown from 1,284 to 2,3151 284 2 315occupancy from50.3% 38.5%50 3% to 38 5%source: str gl

33、obal, horwath htltianjin adr trendrmb 708 dec 2008rmb 580 feb 201019% declinesource: str global, horwath htltianjin revpar trendrmb 369 oct 2008rmb 221 nov 200940% declinesource: str global, horwath htltianjin 2010 outlookpositives central government supportand vision for tianjin some large internat

34、ionalginvestment moving into thecitynegatives new supply impact only justbeginning considerablesupply to come tourism demand does notsupport the top tier market heavily reliant on corporatedemand too close to beijing anddevelopment of the city isspread outsource: str global, horwath htlchengdu suppl

35、y & demand trendshotels11rooms4,475source: str global, horwath htlchengdu room night demand volumesource: str global, horwath htlchengdu room night demand volume25% growthsource: str global, horwath htlchengdu room night demand volume2,173 march 20082,588 feb 201042% growth1,818 jan 200916% declines

36、ource: str global, horwath htlchengdu supply & demand trendssupply growth 31%rna from 3 422 to 4,4753,422 4 475demand growth 25%rnd from 2,066 to 2,588source: str global, horwath htlchengdu supply & demand trendssupply growth 31%rna from 3 422 to 4,4753,422 4 475demand growth 25%rnd from 2,066 to 2,

37、588supply & demand gapgrown from 1,356 to 1,8871 356 1 887occupancy from60.4% 58.0%60 4% to 58 0%source: str global, horwath htlchengdu adr trendrmb 720 jan 2009rmb 638 feb 201011% declinesource: str global, horwath htlchengdu revpar trendrmb 389 march 2008rmb 305 apr 200921% declinesource: str glob

38、al, horwath htlchengdu revpar trendrmb 389 march 2008rmb 370 feb 2010source: str global, horwath htlchengdu 2010 outlookpositives go west policy still has apositive impact on the market plus post earthquakeltthkreconstruction chengdu a gateway tosichuans tourism attractions,tibet and other westernde

39、stinations mice demand strong withnew century city performingpicking upnegatives supply impact in 2010 willlimit market improvement,but over 2 to 3 years supplymay have a larger impact chongqing becoming morecompetitivesource: str global, horwath htldalian supply & demand trendshotels12rooms4,048sou

40、rce: str global, horwath htldalian room night demand volumesource: str global, horwath htldalian room night demand volume22% growthsource: str global, horwath htldalian room night demand volume20% growth2% growthsource: str global, horwath htldalian supply & demand trendssupply growth 38%rna from 2,

41、939 to 4,048demand growth 22%rnd from 1,566 to 1,918source: str global, horwath htldalian supply & demand trendssupply growth 38%rna from 2,939 to 4,048demand growth 22%rnd from 1,566 to 1,918supply & demand gapgrown from 1,373 t 2 130gf1 373 to 2,130occupancy from53.3% 47.5%53 3% to 47 5%source: st

42、r global, horwath htldalian adr trendrmb 651 dec 2007rmb 542 feb 201017% declinesource: str global, horwath htldalian revpar trend27% declinermb 255 jul 2009rmb 347 f b 2008febsource: str global, horwath htldalian 2010 outlookpositives east harbour commercialzone will stimulateinvestment into the ci

43、ty continued growth of thedalian software park and itsposition as the best in china recognized as an attractivecoastal destinationnegatives no major supply issue for2010 but significant growthfrom 2011 seasonal demand patternswill continue to be difficult toovercome leisure demand in the citydoes no

44、t support the top tiermarketsource: str global, horwath htlchongqing supply & demand trendshotels7rooms2,465source: str global, horwath htlchongqing room night demand volumesource: str global, horwath htlchongqing room night demand volume37% growthsource: str global, horwath htlchongqing supply & de

45、mand trendssupply growth 54%rna from 1 596 to 2,4651,596 2 465demand growth 37%rnd from 1,068 to 1,468source: str global, horwath htlchongqing supply & demand trendssupply growth 54%rna from 1 596 to 2,4651,596 2 465demand growth 37%rnd from 1,068 to 1,468supply & demand gapgrown from 528 to 997occu

46、pancy from66.9% 59.7%66 9% to 59 7%source: str global, horwath htlchongqing adr trendrmb 465 dec 2008rmb 445 dec 20094% declinesource: str global, horwath htlchongqing revpar trend14% declinermb 289 feb 2008rmb 248 apr 2009source: str global, horwath htlchongqing revpar trendrmb 289 feb 2008rmb 267

47、feb 2010source: str global, horwath htlchongqing 2010 outlookpositives continued strong demandgrowth positive marketenvironment growth in mice demandhas offered strong supportfor the market development of jiangbeinew ccbd is drivinginvestment in the city.negatives supply growth will continueto be an

48、 issue in 2010 historically an occupancyfocused market with no rategrowth this mentality islikely to continue leisure demand does notsupport the top tier marketsource: str global, horwath htlchina hotel market sentiment surveysentiment survey overview - global participants from 55 countries survey c

49、onducted in 16 languages more than 2,000 responses follofollow-up survey to be conducted june/julyps r econd cted j ne/j lsource: str global, horwath htlsentiment survey overview - china participants from 56 cities more than 383 responses reports to be produced for china, beijing,shanghai and shenzh

50、en the fourth survey conducted in chinasource: str global, horwath htloverall sentiment ranking each answer to each question was given ascore. negative answers scored negative points,ppositive answers positive points.pp minimum score representing the most negativeoutlook equaled -150 maximum score15

51、0.representing the most positive outlook equaled+150. a score of zero equated to a neutraloutlook.outlooksource: str global, horwath htlasia sentiment rankingsfrom jan 2009 surveysouth korea -7 2-7.2japan -72.1china -40.8india -40.1thailand -44.9singapore -64.364 3malaysia -32.832.8hong kong -52.752

52、.7indonesia -4.3source: str global, horwath htlasia sentiment rankingsfrom jan 2010 surveysouth korea 56japan -14china 64india 63thailand 59singapore 49malaysia 55hong kong 82indonesia 50source: str global, horwath htlasia sentiment rankingsfrom jan 2010 surveysouth korea 56japan -14china 64india 63thailand 59singapore 49malaysia 55hong kong 822009 -53indonesia 50source: str global, horwath htlasia sentiment rankingsfrom jan 2010 surveysouth korea 56japan -142009 -7272chi