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1、MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this presentation are that of the author. It does notrepresent the consensus opinion of MIT as an institution or other faculty that may bedirectly or indirectly associated with MIT School of Engineering or MIT Sloan School.MIT F

2、orum for Supply Chain Innovation u UNCERTAINTY URL for powerpoint presentation Education Course 1.270 / ESD.273MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Nobel Prize in Economics 2021 (announced today, 09 Oct 2021)for having integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especiall

3、y concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertaintyfor having established laboratory experiments as a tool in empirical economic analysis, especially in the study of alternative market mechanisms Daniel KahnemanVernon L. Smith1/2oftheprize1/2oftheprizeUSAandIsraelUSAPrincetonUniversity

4、Princeton,NJ,USAGeorgeMasonUniversityFairfax,VA,USAb.1934b.1927MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation BODY SCANNER BY TC2MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Invasion of the Body Scanners Digitally speaking MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Part of the ProcessMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovatio

5、n PERSONALDIGITALPROFILEMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Customer: How will I look in this dress?Retailer: What should we order for Fall ?Manufacturer: Whats the next demand?Data miningData MartRetailersAccessoriesJewelry, ShoesShiseido, CoachHarrods, M&SGucci, BallysGuerlain, PoloUSD, DEMEURO,

6、 INRYEN, YUANTRAVELHEALTHEDUCATIONARTS & MUSICCelebrityGalleryWorld History ofFashionThe Way We WoreData WarehouseBODY SCANeFASHIONEBCB2BAnne KleinLevis, BebeTalbots, AXChina, India, SiamFABRICSUPPLIERSDataWarehouseFABRICBROKERINDEPENDENTDESIGNBROKERGlobal DesignWAREHOUSEMEDIA / POPTailors-Contract

7、ShopsAmateursDesign ForumManufacturingTailor BrokerOrderIndividual Tailors On-callPreference SurveySHIPPINGMALLamFinancialRETURNCRMDONATESalvation ArmyCAREGoodwilleBAYBoutiquesJ C PenneyOutlet StoresAmateurModelsSHIPPINGERPRETAILERSMACYS, NORDSTROM, BLOOMINGDALESPERSONALPROFILESOFTWAREPERSONALPROFIL

8、EANALYSISPortalMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Customer Relationship ManagementSource: AMR Research 1999 OctoberMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Lack of rule-based resolution: expectation vs resultu Financial Impactu Cost of Correctionu Side Effects MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation 9

9、、 人的價(jià)值,在招收誘惑的一瞬間被決定。21.7.1521.7.15Thursday, July 15, 202110、低頭要有勇氣,抬頭要有低氣。21:21:5121:21:5121:217/15/2021 9:21:51 PM11、人總是珍惜為得到。21.7.1521:21:5121:21Jul-2115-Jul-2112、人亂于心,不寬余請(qǐng)。21:21:5121:21:5121:21Thursday, July 15, 202113、生氣是拿別人做錯(cuò)的事來(lái)懲罰自己。21.7.1521.7.1521:21:5121:21:51July 15, 202114、抱最大的希望,作最大的努力。20

10、21年7月15日星期四下午9時(shí)21分51秒21:21:5121.7.1515、一個(gè)人炫耀什么,說(shuō)明他內(nèi)心缺少什么。2021年7月下午9時(shí)21分21.7.1521:21July 15, 202116、業(yè)余生活要有意義,不要越軌。2021年7月15日星期四21時(shí)21分51秒21:21:5115 July 202117、一個(gè)人即使已登上頂峰,也仍要自強(qiáng)不息。下午9時(shí)21分51秒下午9時(shí)21分21:21:5121.7.15MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation 9、 人的價(jià)值,在招收誘惑的一瞬間被決定。21.7.1521.7.15Thursday, July 15,

11、 202110、低頭要有勇氣,抬頭要有低氣。21:21:5121:21:5121:217/15/2021 9:21:51 PM11、人總是珍惜為得到。21.7.1521:21:5121:21Jul-2115-Jul-2112、人亂于心,不寬余請(qǐng)。21:21:5121:21:5121:21Thursday, July 15, 202113、生氣是拿別人做錯(cuò)的事來(lái)懲罰自己。21.7.1521.7.1521:21:5121:21:51July 15, 202114、抱最大的希望,作最大的努力。2021年7月15日星期四下午9時(shí)21分51秒21:21:5121.7.1515、一個(gè)人炫耀什么,說(shuō)明他內(nèi)心

12、缺少什么。2021年7月下午9時(shí)21分21.7.1521:21July 15, 202116、業(yè)余生活要有意義,不要越軌。2021年7月15日星期四21時(shí)21分51秒21:21:5115 July 202117、一個(gè)人即使已登上頂峰,也仍要自強(qiáng)不息。下午9時(shí)21分51秒下午9時(shí)21分21:21:5121.7.15MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Financial Impactu Opportunity lost: unable to ramp upu Economic loss: unable to ramp down MIT Forum for S

13、upply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Cost of Correctionu Resourcesu Inventory MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Side Effects (undesirable)u Tackle only symptomsu Negative fall out MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Insulation of Pl

14、anning from Execution Individual optimisation not SC optimisation Smart-Hub and Dumb-Spoke Configuration Isolation of Environment of OperationMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation What to do ? Understand customer need Monito

15、r supply availability Manage supply chain partner performance Decentralize problem solving Monitor corrective actions and feedback Include macro-economic indicatorsMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Financial Impactu Oppo

16、rtunity lost: unable to ramp upu Economic loss: unable to ramp down MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT

17、Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Push-Pull Supply ChainsThe Supply Chain Time LineLow Uncertainty High Uncert

18、aintyCustomersSuppliersPUSH STRATEGYPULL STRATEGYMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation From Make-to-Stock Model.ConfigurationAssemblySuppliersMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation to Assemble-to-Order ModelConfigurationAssemblySuppliersMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain

19、 Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Imagination is out of focus !MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Inventory ManagementOrder ProcessingE-BusinessVendor ManagementTaxElectronic CommerceFinancialsMarketingExecutive InformationInventory ProgramsAc

20、counts PayableStock TransfersWarehouseInbound QA1ReceivingRepair OrdersPurchasingAccounts ReceivableOutbound QAShippingOrder ServicesQuotingCreditCustomer ManagementMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply

21、Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Observation 199883 million accessthe Internet inlanguages otherthan EnglishProjection 202270% of 1 billionusers may notspeak EnglishFACT46% US businessrefuse intl orderbecause they lack means toprocess them.JapaneseSpanishGermanFrenchChineseDutc

22、hKoreanSwedishItalianMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation Conceptual advances occur about twice a century and lead to wealth of nations DistributedIntelligenceNanotechMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation PLANEXECUTESENSERESPONDDEMANDEXCEPTIONMIT Forum for Supp

23、ly Chain Innovation CustomerCustomers DCMANUFACTURERRaw material SUPPLIERSStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreDCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonStorePlantDCPlantDCREAL TIME ePCePC data from RFID TagReplenishmentneedsConfirmationLoadsStore OrdersStatusImmediateReplenishmentneedsFutureshipping needsReplenis

24、hmentneeds determinedfrom RFID Tag info“Intelligent Signal”PORTALS / ExchangeTransportCustomer Info CenterManufacturerHQreal timeRFID dataPersonal CareConsumer TissueHealth CareInformationAgentInventory Early Warning AgentTLB AgentCross-Docking AgentConsumptionInventoryDataDC to MfrMIT Forum for Sup

25、ply Chain Innovation MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreIndustry best now versus what can be achieved:Day 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0=Product =InfoDay 7Received, unloaded & stocked on store sh

26、elvesDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0=Non-value-added time=Product=InfoPortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStore

27、StoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreConsumerBuys SCOTT 2pm Day 0=Product =InfoMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCPortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =InfoRFID Smart Tag atPOS read 2pm Day

28、0Day 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =Info0101100110111010001112pm

29、Day 0RFID Smart tag datatransmitted instantly010110011011101000111MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =Info01011

30、00110111010001110101100110111010001112:10pm Day 0Replenishment needs receivedby scheduling (TLB) systemsMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreS

31、toreStoreStoreStore=Product =Info0101100110111010001112:35 pm, Day 0System detects OOS danger at customer & co-ordinates rapid-response shipment (reallocation of en route load evaluated)010110011011101000111010110011011101000111010110011011101000111MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMe

32、dicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =InfoSmart PlannerSmart Plannerinterrogates interrogates demand filterdemand filterMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDC

33、PaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =InfoSmart Planner integrates info:current inventory, shipment, planning MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPap

34、erMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =InfoSmart Planner executes changes, broadcasts plan, exceptions, optionsMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperM

35、edicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =InfoMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0

36、PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =Info10pm Day 0Customer DC receives SCOTTMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufa

37、cturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =Info11pm Day 0Customer DC ships SCOTTMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStor

38、eStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =Info3am Day 1Received, unloaded & stocked on store shelvesMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0=Product =Info3am Day 1Received, unlo

39、aded & stocked on store shelvesDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0=Non-value-added time=Product=InfoPortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerMIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation 2022: P&G shortens replenishment cycle from 120 days to 1 day 1 MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation 2022: P&G shortens replenishment cycle from 120 days to 1 day 2 MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation 2022: P&G shortens replenishment cycle from 120 days to 1 day 3 MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation 2022: P&G shortens replenishment cycle from 120 days to 1

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