International Finance——國際金融筆記

1、International FinanceCHAPTER 1Balance of payments: the balance of payments is a record of the economic transactions between the residents of one country and the rest of the world. Nations keep record of their balance of payments over the course of a one-year period.3 major accounts: current, capital

2、, financialCurrent account: the current account of the balance of payments refers to the monetary value of international flows associated with transactions in goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers. Include: (1) merchandise trade (goods and services), (2) income receipts and payment

3、s, (3) unilateral transfersDouble-entry accounting：The arrangement of international transactions into a balance-of-payments account requires that each transaction be entered as a credit or a debit.(+) a credit transaction is one that results in a receipt of payment from foreigners.(-) a debit transa

4、ction is one that leads to a payment to foreigners. CHAPTER 2Foreign-exchange market: the foreign-exchange market refers to the organizational setting within which individuals, businesses, governments, and banks buy and sell foreign currencies and other debit instruments.Foreign-currency options: fo

5、reign-currency options provide an options holder the right to buy or sell a fixed amount of foreign currency at a prearranged price, within a few days or a couple of years. The options holder can choose the exchange rate he or she wants to guarantee, as well as the length of the contract.A call opti

6、on gives the holder the right to buy foreign currency at a specified price.A put option gives the holder the right to sell foreign currency at a specified price.Exchange-rate determination 章節(jié)整體Demand for foreign exchangeSupply of foreign exchange 易忘記混淆！P39Equilibrium rate of exchangeNominal and real

7、 exchange ratesNominal exchange rates do not reflect changes in price levels in trade partners.Real exchange rate embodies the changes in prices in countries in the calculation.Real Exchange Rate =Nominal Exchange Rate ×Foreign country's price levelHome country's price level(Both nomina

8、l exchange rate and real exchange rate are measured in units of domestic currency per unit of foreign currency)比如美元為本國貨幣，匯率為80 cents1 euroExchange arbitrage: refers to the simultaneous purchase and sale of a currency in different foreign-exchange markets in order to profit from exchange-rate differe

9、ntials in the two locations. Two-point arbitrage and Three-point arbitrage P44The forward rate When a currency is worth more(less) in the forward market than in the spot market, it is said to be at a premium (discount).Premiumdiscount=Forward Rate-Spot RateSpot Rate×12No. of Months ForwardCHAPT

10、ER 3Determining long-term exchange rates 簡要說明Four key factors: relative price levels, relative productivity levels, consumer preferences for domestic and foreign goods, and trade barriers.Note that these factors underlie trade in domestic and foreign goods and thus changes in the demand for exports

11、and imports. P74(1) relative price levelsprice level in US, constant in UK. US consumers desire relatively low-priced UK goods. D increases to DUK consumers purchase less relatively high-priced US goods. S decreases to S.Dollar depreciate(2) relative productivity levelsUS productivity growth faster

12、than UKUS goods becomes relatively low-pricedUK demands more US goods. S increases to S.UK goods becomes relatively high-priced. US demands fewer UK goods. D decreases to D.Dollar appreciate(3) consumer preferences for domestic and foreign goods US consumers develop stronger preferences for UK goods

13、.D increases to D. Dollar depreciate(4) trade barriersUS government imposes trade barriers on UK steel.D decreases to DDollar appreciatePurchasing power parity: it says that exchange rates adjust to make goods and services cost the same everywhere and it is an application of the law of one price.(Th

14、e law of one price is applied for one good. The purchasing-power-parity theory provides an explanation of exchange rates bases on goods, its an application of the law of one piece to national price levels.Going one step further, the purchasing-power-parity theory suggest that changes in relative nat

15、ional price levels determine changes in exchange rates over the long term.)Price level (inflation), currency depreciateDetermining short term exchange rates: the asset-market approach 了解According to the asset-market approach, investors consider two key factors when deciding between domestic and fore

16、ign investments: relative levels of interest and expected changes in the exchange rate itself.Interest rate , appreciation.Expect appreciation, appreciation.Exchange-rate overshooting: a exchange rate is said to overshoot when its short-term response (depreciation or appreciation) to change in marke

17、t fundamentals is greater than its long-term response.Forecasting foreign-exchange rates, 3 ways:(1)Judgmental forecasts: known as subjective or common sense models, require large number of political and economic data and interpretation. “feel for the market”(2)Technical forecasts: use historical ex

18、change-rate data to estimate future values.is founded on the idea that history repeats itself. Follows the market closely, to forecast exchange-rate movements in the short-term.(3)Fundamental analysis: is the opposite of technical analysis. It involves consideration of economic variables which affec

19、t the supply and demand of a currency and thus its exchange value, uses computer-based economic models, which are statistical estimations of economic theories. CHAPTER 5Marshall- Lerner condition states: P120(1)Depreciation will improve the trade balance if the currency-depreciating nations demand e

20、lasticity for imports plus the foreign demand elasticity for the nations export exceeds one. (2)If the sum of the demand elasticity is less than one, depreciation will worsen the trade balance.(3)The trade balance will not change if the sum of the demand elasticity equals one.Elasticity=QQPPJ-curve

21、effectJ-curve effect suggests that in the very short term, a currency depreciation will lead to a worsening of a nations trade balance. But as time passes, the trade balance will likely improve.The trade balance continues to get worse for a while after depreciation (sliding down the hook of J) and t

22、hen gets better (moving up the stem of the J). J-curve effect occurs because the initial effect of depreciation is an increase in import expenditures: the home-currency price of imports has risen, but the volume is unchanged owing to prior commitments. As time passes, the quantity adjustment effect

23、becomes relevant: import volume is depressed, whereas exports become more attractive to foreign buyers. There tends to be a time lag between changes in exchanges and their ultimate effect on real trade.CHAPTER 6Exchange arrangement P1361放棄獨立法定貨幣的匯率制度（exchange arrangements with no separate legal tend

24、er） 即一國不發(fā)行自己的貨幣，而是使用他國貨幣作為本國唯一法定貨幣；或者一個貨幣聯(lián)盟中，各成員國使用共同的法定貨幣。例如歐元區(qū)國家。2貨幣局制度（currency board arrangements） 一國或地區(qū)首先確定本幣與某種外匯（通常為美元）的法定匯率，然后按照這個法定匯率以100%的外匯儲備作為保證來發(fā)行本幣，并且保持本幣與該外匯的法定匯率不變。我國的香港地區(qū)也執(zhí)行貨幣局制度。3通常的固定釘住匯率制度(conventional pegged arrangements) 一國將其貨幣以一固定的匯率釘住某一外國貨幣或外國貨幣籃子,匯率在1%的狹窄區(qū)間內波動。4水平波幅內的釘住匯率制度（

25、pegged exchange rates within horizontal bands） 與第三類的區(qū)別在于,波動的幅度寬于1%的區(qū)間。比如，丹麥實行的波幅為2.5%，塞浦路斯為2.25%，埃及為3%，匈牙利則達到15%。 5爬行釘住匯率制度(Crawling pegged) 一國貨幣當局以固定的、事先宣布的值，對匯率不時進行小幅調整，或根據(jù)多指標對匯率進行小幅調整。 6爬行波幅匯率制度(crawling band) 一國貨幣匯率保持在圍繞中心匯率的波動區(qū)間內，但該中心匯率以固定的、事先宣布的值，或根據(jù)多指標，不時地進行調整。如以色列的爬行波幅為22%，白俄羅斯的爬行波幅為5%，烏拉圭則為

26、3%。 7管理浮動匯率制度(managed floating) 一國貨幣當局在外匯市場進行積極干預以影響匯率。 8獨立浮動匯率制度(independently floating) 本國貨幣匯率由市場決定。貨幣當局偶爾進行干預，這種干預旨在緩和匯率的波動、防止不適當?shù)牟▌?，而不是設定匯率的水平。The impossible trinity P137Countries/regions can adopt only two of the following three policies: free capital flows, a fixed exchange rate, and an indepe

27、ndent monetary policy.Key currency: a key currency is widely traded on world money markets, has demonstrated relatively stable values over time, and has been widely accepted as a means of international settlement.Par value and official exchange rate了解：Under a fixed exchange rate system, government h

28、ave assigned their currencies a par value in terms of gold or other key currencies. By comparing the par values of other currencies, we can determine their official exchange rate.Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rate簡化版：In 1944, delegates from 44 member nations of the United Nations met to cre

29、ate a new international monetary system to establish international monetary order and avoid the instability and nationalistic practices. The Bretton woods system (lasted from1946 until 1973) adopted a semi-fixed exchange-rate system known as adjustable pegged exchange rates. Under Bretton woods syst

30、em, The US dollar links with gold（fixed at $35 per ounce）and other currencies are pegged to the dollar.The BWS has many optional problems, and it reached a climax in the early 1970s. US suspended to exchange gold for dollars at $35 per ounce in 1971. This policy abolished the tie between gold and th

31、e international value of the dollar, thus floating the dollar and permitting its exchange rate to be set by market forces.完整版：The Bretton Woods system of monetary management established the rules for commercial and financial relations among the world's major industrial states in the mid-20th cen

32、tury (lasted from 1946 to 1973). The Bretton Woods system was the first example of a fully negotiated monetary order intended to govern monetary relations among independent nation-states.Preparing to rebuild the international economic system while World War II was still raging, delegates from 44 mem

33、ber nations of UN met at the Bretton Woods, United States, for the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, also known as the Bretton Woods Conference. The delegates deliberated during 122 July 1944, and signed the Agreement on its final day.Setting up a system of rules, institutions, and p

34、rocedures to regulate the international monetary system, the planners at Bretton Woods established the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), which today is part of the World Bank Group. These organizations became operational in 1945 a

35、fter a sufficient number of countries had ratified the agreement.The chief features of the Bretton Woods system were （1）The US dollar links with gold（fixed at $35 per ounce）.(2) An obligation for each country to adopt a monetary policy that maintained the exchange rate by tying its currency to the U

36、.S. dollar and the ability of the IMF to bridge temporary imbalances of payments.The BWS has many optional problems, and it reached a climax in the early 1970s. Faced with continuing and growing balance-of-payments deficit, US suspended to exchange gold for dollars at $35 per ounce in 1971, referred

37、 to as the Nixon shock, This policy abolished the tie between gold and the international value of the dollar, thus floating the dollar and permitting its exchange rate to be set by market forces. At the same time, many fixed currencies (such as GBP, for example), also became free-floating.Managed floating rates: is the current international financial environment in which exchange rates fluctuate from day to day, but central banks attempt to influence their countries' exchange rates by b