一個(gè)比較評(píng)估：國(guó)際服務(wù)貿(mào)易模式和專業(yè)化潛力【外文原文】

1、49INTERNATIONAL SERVICES TRADE PATTERNS AND SPECIALIZATION POTENTIAL: A COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENTBobirc ? Ana?ii Economice Interna?ionale?ii Economice Interna?ionale?ii Economice Interna?ionale?ii Economice Interna?ionaleAcademia de Studii Economice Bucure"ti, Facultatea de RelaStr. M. Eminescu nr

2、. 13-15, sector 1, Bucure"tie-mail: ana.bobircarei.ase.ro, tel: 0722 219 289Micl ?u "Paul-GabrielAcademia de Studii Economice Bucure"ti, Facultatea de RelaStr. M. Eminescu nr. 13-15, sector 1, Bucure"tie-mail: miclausrei.ase.ro, tel: 0723 366 058Lupu RaduAcademia de Studii Econom

3、ice Bucure"ti, Facultatea de RelaStr. M. Eminescu nr. 13-15, sector 1, Bucure"tie-mail: ralupu, tel: 021 319 19 90Un gurea nu dtefanAcademia de Studii Economice Bucure"ti, Facultatea de RelaStr. M. Eminescu nr. 13-15, sector 1, Bucure"tie-mail: stefan.ungureanu, tel: 021 319 19 9

4、0The main purpose of this paper is to comparatively examine the international competitiveness of services trade, by determining its pattern and structure of specialization for Romania and Bulgaria, on the EU-25 services market. In other words, the research attempts to identify Romania's and Bulg

5、aria's ability to overcome difficulties andchallenges that might arise from the hard competition within the enlarged EU, in the field of foreign trade in services. To this end, the paper attempts to suggest a multilevel framework for assessing the international competitiveness of Romania 's

6、and Bulgaria's services trade.Key words: international services trade, international competitiveness, specializationIntroductionThroughout the 90s, Southern and Eastern European countries have liberalized and reformed their economies to a varying degree. This together with the differences in the

7、ir services sectors development, industrial base, administrative reforms and political framework, has led to different developments in services trade structure and comparative advantages. Several studies have assessed the evolution of the trade patterns in the transition economies, mainly based on m

8、anufacturing sector statistics. The attention was given especially to the former ten accession countries, i.e. transition countries seeking EU accession. The present work aims to extend these studies to the Romanian and Bulgarian economies, as a dearth of empirical research has been carried out up t

9、o now.The purpose of this paper is therefore two-fold. First, it attempts to show how the Romanian and Bulgarian specialization in services trade has evolved over time. Second, it seeks to comparatively examine the international competitiveness of the EU-25, Romanian and Bulgarian services trade and

10、 to subsequently determine the competitive position of Romania and Bulgaria on the EU-25 services market. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the different ways of measuring services trade competitiveness and exposes the considered indices for the empirical analysis

11、. Section 3 presents the empirical evidence on the patterns of trade specialization in Romania and Bulgaria; it illustrates the EU-25 countries R'om, ania ' sa,nd Bulgaria 's recent performance in services trade, based on a four-dimensional framework for measuring international services

12、trade competitiveness. Section 4 concludes.Methodology and dataFor the comparative assessment of the EU-25 countries' , Romania ' s, and Bulgaria ' s international competitivenessof trade in services, the underlying methodological approach undertaken in this paper is based on a multileve

13、l model en compass ing a comb in ati on of four in dices: (1) Revealed Comparative Adva ntages (RCA), for which weuse a versi on of Balassa's formula (Balassa, 1965); (2) Comparative Export Performa nee (CEP)(Don ges, 1982);(3) Trade Overlap (TO) (Fin ger & De Rosa, 1979) for the calculati o

14、n of the overall importa nee of i ntra-i ndustry,in comparis on with in ter-i ndustry trade; (4) Export Similarity (ES) (Laaser & Schrader, 2002), i n an alogy to theTO in dex.Balassa in dic(1) As a first step, we attempt to measure the in ter nati onal competitive ness of EU-25, Roma nia, and B

15、ulgaria in services trade by using RCA in dices. The origi nal RCA in dex was developed for measuri ng the degree of a cou ntry's specializati on in in dividual in dustries through data on intern ati onal trade in goods. The focus in this study, however, is on trade in services. A fun dame ntal

16、eleme nt of the RCA is the law of comparative adva ntage, which assumes trade in goods. Some existing studies, however, have indicated that the law of comparative advantage is applicable to international trade in services, as well as in goods. Both Hindley and Smith (1984), and Deardorff (1985) exam

17、ined the relevance of the law of comparative advantage for trade in services, and they con firmed the applicability of the theory in each exam in ati on. Saza nami and Urata (1990), pion eers in the study of trade in services, used an econo metric method to show the sig nifica nce of comparative adv

18、a ntage to trade in services. Their work also supported the transferability of the theory. There are a number of ways to examine whether or not a cou ntry has a comparative adva ntage in the export of a certa in service. One com mon method is to determ ine how specialized a cou ntry is in the export

19、 of a service activity through con struct ing(Balassa, 1965). The formula we use here to measure a country 'revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in services trade is give n by: where RCAi, a represents the revealed comparative advantage for the services sector i of country A and Xi, a correspond

20、s to the exports of the services sector i by country A. This formula represents the ratio of domestic specializati on (n umerator) aga inst that of world specializati on (de nomin ator). When one sector has RCA > 1, it has a comparative advantage; when it has RCA < 1, on the other hand, it has

21、 a comparative disadvantage. The higher (lower) the RCA in dex, the more (less) successful the trade performa nce of the cou ntry in questi on is in a particular service activity. The RCA reflects both the competitive ness in the domestic sector and the world supply capacity.(0.1)(2) As a sec ond st

22、ep, we estimate the structure of in ter nati onal competitive ness in services trade for EU-25, Romania, and Bulgaria, corresponding to the years 2003, 2004, and 2005. The comparative export performance (CEP) index (Donges, 1982) is also based only on export shares and therefore allows for a compari

23、son of findings betwee n the first two in dices. The formula we use to measure the CEP in dex is give n by:.CER =_.(0.2)|A X* |A i Xi,Awhere CEPi represents the comparative export performance for the services sector i and Xi, a symbolizes the exports of services sector i by country A. CEP index valu

24、es above (or below) unity mean that the particular services sector has a larger (lower) share in the total exports of the an alyzed cou ntry tha n the corresp onding EU- 25 or world share. Thus, the country in question can possess a relative advantage (or disadvantage) in the export of those service

25、s.(3) Thus, as a further step, we consider the overall importance for Romania, Bulgaria, as well as for the EU-25, ofintra-industry in comparison to inter-industry specialization in international services trade, by calculating trade overlap (TO) coefficie nts, at sectoral level. The in tra-i ndustry

26、 trade suggests how and to what exte nt the economy in question is already integrated into the world market, as well as the degree of liberalization that the economy has already realized throughout the economic development process. TO coefficient measures the level of specializati on in the in ter n

27、ati onal trade of a particular services sector relative to the intern ati onal trade betwee n differe nt services sectors of the economy. The formula we use to measure the trade overlap (TO) coefficie nt isgive n by:TOi =2 min( Xi,a, Mi,a)/(X + MiA).(0.3)where TOi represents the trade overlap for th

28、e services sector i and Xi, a and Mi, a correspond to the exports and, respectively, the imports of services sector i by country A; "min" defines the magnitude of total trade that overlaps. The coefficient can vary between zero and one. The closer it comes to unity, the more intra-industry

29、 specialization exists. A lower coefficient implies that trade takes the form of inter-industry specialization.(4) Fin ally, we calculate whether or not the exports of Roma nia, Bulgaria, or EU-25 overlap in the period 20032005. Coefficie nts of export similarity (ES) are computed using the formula

30、of Fin ger and Krei nin (1979), which measures the proportion of a country' s exports matched by its competitor' s exports in the same service category.The first step in the an alysis is to calculate, for in dividual cou ntries, the share of each services sector exports in total services exp

31、orts. These shares are the n compared betwee n cou ntries to obta in a measure of services export similarity. The Finger-Kreinin statistic is defined as follows:.ESa,b = | min( Xi,a / X a, Xi,B / Xb).(0.4)iwhere ESa,b represents the export similarity of countries A and B; Xi, a/Xa refers to the serv

32、ices sector i share in total services exports of country 代 Xi, b/Xb refers to the services sector i share in total services exports of country B.The ES coefficient can vary between zero and one. The closer it comes to unity, there is a greater degree of similarity betwee n two cou ntries (cou ntries

33、 have ide ntical export patter ns - in tra-i ndustry trade) On the other hand, a finding of zero indicates no export similarity between the countries in question, as well as no overlap - inter-industry trade. Finger-Kreinin is a relative index in that it compares the sector share in total exports of

34、 one cou ntry with respect to ano ther.In calculat ing these in dices, the sample data is draw n from UNCTAD, EUROSTAT, and IMF - Bala nee of Payme nts Statistics on trade in services by sector, a data-set which covers exports and imports of three pr in cipal services categories: t ransportation , t

35、ourism and travel, and other commercial services , according to the concepts and definitions of the IMF Balance of Payments Manual. The data-set comprises the EU-25 countries, Romania, Bulgaria, and the world (178 countries) and covers a yearly time period counting 2003, 2004, and 2005.Results and d

36、iscussi onRevealed Comparative Adva ntageThe mai n con clusi ons to be draw n from the RCA in dices of Roma nia' s, Bulgaria ' s, and EU-25' services trade bysector, calculated in relation to the world and to the EU-25 states, respectively (only for the former two countries), for the yea

37、rs 2003-2005 are (see table 1): (a) fortransportation services , Romania and Bulgaria have a revealedcomparative advantage, both in their trade with the world and in relation to EU-25; the revealed comparative in dex is higher for the trade with the rest of the world, which dem on strates a lower de

38、gree of specializati on inRomania ' s and Bulgaria ' s transportation services trade with EU-25; it is noteworthy that EU-25' s specializatisuch services is slightly increasing, with EU-25 switching to a comparative advantage in 2005; a similar patterncan be observed for Bulgaria 'tr

39、ade with EU-25, whereas for Romania the situation is different (higher comparative advantage, but declining); (b) for travel services , Romania ' s and Bulgaria ' s specialization index is higher in their trade with the EU-25 countries than in that with the world at large, with Bulgaria bein

40、g in a str on ger competitive positi on tha n Roma nia; EU-25 appears to have a comparative disadva ntage for the export of such services, with a tendency to raise its degree of specializati on, aga in st an in crease of the world market size for such services; while Romania is slightly reducing its

41、 comparative advantage in relation to EU-25, Bulgaria is improvi ng its positi on; (c) for other services , whilst the intern ati onal con text looks un favorable, there appears to be an in crease of the degree of specializati on in the export of such services for Roma nia, both in its trade with th

42、e world and with EU-25; the EU-25 states have a comparative advantage in trading with these services, that is somewhat worsening in time. Bulgaria' s situation, in this case, is considerably weaker than Romania' s.Comparative Export Performa neeThe mai n eon elusi ons to be draw n from the C

43、EP in dices of Roma nia' s, Bulgaria ' s, and EU-25' services trade bysector, calculated in relation to the world and to the EU-25 states, respectively (only for the former two countries), for the years 2003-2005 are as follows (see table 1): (a) Romania and Bulgaria appear to have been

44、maintainingtheir initial position of comparative advantage in the export of transportation services, both in relation to the world and to the EU-25 countries; both Romania ' 8nd Bulgaria "comparative advantages are stronger with respect to their overall international trade; EU-25 countries

45、are improving their relative advantage in the export of transportation services; in the case of Romania, the results show that the country is highly competitive in terms of export performanee in these services; (b) concerning travel services , Romania is decreasing its competitiveness, with CEP valu

46、es below the unity and seems to be loosing its advantages in trade with the EU-25 countries, whereas Bulgaria is strongly improving its relative advantage, especially in relation to EU-25; (c) the results for other services indicate that EU-25 states are best positioned for these services, although

47、registering a slight decrease; Romania and Bulgaria have a relative disadvantage in the export of such services,much stronger forBulgaria. The trade patter ns for the two cou ntries an alyzed and for EU-25, which have bee n revealed by the RCA in dices, are gen erally and to a large exte nt con firm

48、ed by the CEPs.Trade OverlapThe main results obtained from the estimations of the TO coefficients by services sector for the years 2003, 2004, and 2005 are as follows (see table 1): (a) Romania approaches intra-industry specialization in all three services sub-sectors an alyzed; in all service activ

49、ities, almost the en tire value of its exports to the world is offset by similar imports; the situation is comparable in respect to exports and imports towards EU-25 countries, with a slight differenee for transportation services , that tends to be offset in time; interestingly, Bulgaria' s econ

50、omy indicatesthe characteristics of intra-industry trade mainly fortransportation and other services, in its trade with the world;(b) we no tice, in Bulgaria' s case, an importa nt in citeasel forrvices in their in tra-i ndustry specializati on intrade with EU-25 countries; (c) as expected, the

51、TO coefficients for EU-25 come close to unity. This emphasizes that the EU-25 has already realized full intra-industry specialization in its services trade with the world; (d) Romania ' jntra-industry specialization in other services, in its trade with EU-25 is somewhat deelining, suggest ing a

52、pote ntial for an appeara nee of the characteristics of in ter-i ndustry trade for this heteroge neous group of services.Romania-worldBulgaria-worldEU-25-worldRomania-EU-25Bulgaria-EU-25RCTRCTRCTRCTRCTCAEPOCAEPOCAEPOCAEPOCAEPOTransp.20031.1.01.1.00.0.01.1.00.0.08787.972424.989494.995959.829999.85200

53、41.1.01.1.00.0.01.1.01.1.09393.981313.979595.975353.881515.6120051.1.01.1.01.1.01.1.01.1.04543.993333.960808.964242.961010.80Travel20030.0.01.1.00.0.0.05252.979393.789393.990000.002929.7520040.0.01.1.0.02.2.4949.979494.769090.009393.971414.6120050.0.02.2.00.0.00.0.02.2.08080.921111.7

54、09595.998080.993535.93Other20030.0.00.0.01.1.00.0.00.0.09090.993838.920606.957878.983737.6020040.0.00.0.01.1.00.0.00.0.08787.944040.990808.948282.944040.5320050.0.00.0.00.0.00.0.00.0.09494.993434.899999.949292.943333.87Source: own computati onTable I.Framework for measuri ng Roma nias in ter nati on

55、al services trade competitive nessExport SimilarityThe estimated ES coefficie nts (see table 2) show that the degrees of export similarity betwee n Roma nia and EU- 25, as well as between Bulgaria and EU-25 are very high. Also, the export similarity of the Romanian and Bulgarian services exports, wi

56、th respect to both their trade with the EU-25 countries, is quite low, much weaker than in relati on to the world, but str on gly in creas ing in 2005. This means that, as a con seque nee of Roma niaBulgaria 'accession to the EU, the Romanian services export industries compete, first of all, wit

57、h exports originating from the EU-25 countries and then from Bulgaria, but at a lesser degree. The main question here is whether Romanian services exports bear complementary or substitutive features. Romania has the largest similarity in its services exports structure with the EU-25 cou ntries, with a no ticeable in crease in 2005.Romania-Bulgaria (world)Romania-Bulgaria (EU-25)Roma