影響通貨膨脹的因素分析

1、影響通貨膨脹的因素分析對影響通貨膨脹的因素分析摘要：隨著國內商品價格上漲，CPI數(shù)據(jù)的攀升，通脹已經(jīng)影響到人們的生活。 通過對CPI指數(shù)歷年的水平和現(xiàn)狀的研究，建立影響通貨膨脹的經(jīng)濟模型，研究 各解釋變量對通貨膨脹的影響程度，從而為我國避免嚴重的通貨膨脹以確保經(jīng) 濟的持續(xù)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展提供理論依據(jù)。關鍵詞：通貨膨脹 多因素分析 模型 計量經(jīng)濟 檢驗 修正 一、問題的提出通貨膨脹是指流通中的貨幣數(shù)量超過經(jīng)濟 運行所需的貨幣數(shù)量而引起的貨幣貶值和價格 水平全面、持續(xù)上漲的經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象。衡量通貨膨脹 的常用指標有消費者價格指數(shù)(CPI)、生產(chǎn)者價 格指數(shù)(PPI)和GDP折算數(shù)，其中最為常用的是 消費者價格指

2、數(shù)。所以，本文就影響 CPI的因素 來解釋影響通貨膨脹的因素。影響通貨膨脹的因素有很多，但由于許多因 素之間相互重疊，同時為了反映影響通貨膨脹的 主要因素，因此，綜合考慮各方面的因素，我考 慮以下一些變量：i.固定資產(chǎn)投資總額(GDZCTZZE )。我國當 前需求的增長主要由政府主導的投資拉動的，主 要用于基礎設施建設。我國固定資產(chǎn)膨脹主要又 表現(xiàn)為一般加工業(yè)投資增長過快，這就造成投資 結構向加工工業(yè)和非生產(chǎn)性建設傾斜，造成能 源、原材料的供應和交通運輸極度緊張，增加物價上漲的壓力2 .貨幣供應量（HBGYL ）。貨幣供應量過 多，會引起貨幣貶值，價格水平上漲。3 .國內生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）。G

3、DP增長對增加 對貨幣的需求，也會增加對貨幣的供給，所以會 給通脹埋下一些隱患。4 .外匯儲備（WHCB ）。外債負擔過重、外 貿逆差過大及國際市場價格與國內市場價格相 當懸殊可能引起通貨膨脹。二、模型的選擇和變量的設定我將CPI作為因變量，即被解釋變量；將固定資產(chǎn)投資總額、貨幣供應量、 國內生產(chǎn)總值、外匯儲備作為解釋變量，對模型進行回歸分析。（一）收集的數(shù)據(jù)如下：CPI GDZCTZZE（億元）HBGYL （億）GDP （億）WHCB（億美元）103.1451715293.418718.3111103.45594.519349.921826.2217.12106.48080.125402.2

4、26937.3194114.713072.334879.835260211.99124.117042.9446923.548108.5516.2117.120019.2660750.559810.5735.97108.322974.0376094.970142.51050.49102.82531890995.378060.81398.999.228406.17104498.583024.3145098.629854.71119897.988479.21546.75100.432917.73134610.398000.51655.74100.737213.49158310.9108068.221

5、21.6599.243499.91185007119095.72864.07101.255566.61221222.81351744032.51103.970477.4254107159586.76099.32101.888773.6298755.7184088.68188.72101.5109998.2345603.6213131.710663.44104.8137323.9403442.2259258.915282.49105.9172828.4475166.6302853.419460.3105.222484660622533535323992(二)建立數(shù)學模型及模型的檢驗建 立線性模型

6、：CPI= B 0+ B 1*GDZCTZZE+ B 2*HBGYL+ B 3*GDP+ B 4*WHCB對模型顯著性的假設為：H0: B 1= B 2= B 3= p 4=0H1 : B 1, B 2, B 3, B 4不全為零1.模型顯著性檢驗：用EVIEWS進行回歸操作，結果如下：Dependent Variable: CPIMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/10/10 Time: 17:10Sample: 1990 2009Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb

7、.C102.97154.95018920.801520.0000GDZCTZZE0.0010610.0004622.2950790.0366HBGYL-0.0003180.000117-2.7167180.0159GDP0.0001640.0001421.1528000.2670WHCB-0.0040190.002706-1.4850750.1582R-squared0.476580Mean dependent var105.1150Adjusted R-squared0.337001S.D.dependent var6.552723S.E. of regression5.335538Akai

8、ke info criterion6.398975Sum squared resid427.0195Schwarz criterion6.647908Log likelihood-58.98975F-statistic3.414416Durbin-Watson stat0.693276Prob(F-statistic)0.035621Estimation Command:LS CPI C GDZCTZZE HBGYL GDP WHCBEstimation Equation:CPI = C(1) + C(2)*GDZCTZZE + C(3)*HBGYL + C(4)*GDP + C(5)*WHC

9、BSubstituted Coefficients:CPI = 102.9714588 + 0.001061271087*GDZCTZZE - 0.000317535485*HBGYL +0.0001639031138*GDP - 0.004019161098*WHCB將上述Eviews輸出的回歸分析表中的P-Value值與給定的顯著性水平a =0.05進行比較。C、固定資產(chǎn)投資總額、貨幣供應量的 P-Value值0.05，說明這三個解釋變量對CPI的影響是顯著的，而另外兩個不顯著 因此，我對估計量進行修正，結果如下：Dependent Variable: CPIMethod: Least S

10、quaresDate: 12/10/10 Time: 17:13Sample: 1990 2009Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.C103.61804.67236322.176780.0000GDZCTZZE0.0017180.0005792.9655030.0102HBGYL-0.0003960.000119-3.3244060.0050GDP2.64E-050.0001560.1692540.8680WHCB-0.0040680.002546-1.5977160.1324WHCBA2

11、-9.63E-085.61E-08-1.7166780.1081R-squared0.567600Mean dependent var105.1150Adjusted R-squared0.413171S.D.dependent var6.552723S.E. of regression5.019699Akaike info criterion6.307942Sum squared resid352.7633Schwarz criterion6.606662Log likelihood-57.07942F-statistic3.675480Durbin-Watson stat0.957758P

12、rob(F-statistic)0.024718Estimation Command:LS CPI C GDZCTZZE HBGYL GDP WHCB WHCBA2Estimation Equation:CPI = C(1) + C(2)*GDZCTZZE + C(3)*HBGYL + C(4)*GDP + C(5)*WHCB + C(6)*WHCBA2Substituted Coefficients:CPI = 103,6179755 + 0.001718217201*GDZCTZZE - 0.0003955515982*HBGYL + 2.638904124e-005*GDP - 0.00

13、4068304053*WHCB - 9.630845615e-008*WHCBA2 結果顯示對被解釋的影響還是不顯著，繼續(xù)修正：Dependent Variable: CPIMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/10/10 Time: 17:22Sample (adjusted): 1991 2009Included observations: 19 after adjustmentsVariableCoefficienStd. Errort-StatisticProb.tC101.56914.63787021.899950.0000GDZCTZZE0.0020470.0

14、004764.3013860.0009HBGYL-0.0003969.76E-05-4.0608600.0013GDP2.94E-050.0001180.2490860.8072WHCB-0.0116470.003195-3.6455450.0030D(WHCB)0.0122170.0032793.7258730.0025R-squared0.751092Mean dependent var105.2211Adjusted R-squared0.655359S.D. dependent var6.714626S.E. of regression3.941898Akaike info crite

15、rion5.833291Sum squared resid202.0013Schwarz criterion6.131535Log likelihood-49.41626F-statistic7.845647Durbin-Watson stat1.454710Prob(F-statistic)0.001336Estimation Command:LS CPI C GDZCTZZE HBGYL GDP WHCB D(WHCB)Estimation Equation:CPI = C(1) + C(2)*GDZCTZZE + C(3)*HBGYL + C(4)*GDP + C(5)*WHCB + C

16、(6)*D(WHCB)Substituted Coefficients:CPI = 101.5691066 + 0.002047293013*GDZCTZZE - 0.0003963094008*HBGYL +2.935355508e-005*GDP - 0.01164733127*WHCB + 0.01221742232*D(WHCB)GDP對該結果顯示：外匯儲備與外匯儲備的增量對CPI的影響是顯著的，而CPI的影響是不顯著的，因此考慮刪除變量GDP,結果如下：Dependent Variable: CPIMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/10/10 Time: 1

17、7:28Sample (adjusted): 1991 2009Included observations: 19 after adjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.C102.37493.21004931.892010.0000GDZCTZZE0.0020250.0004524.4824640.0005HBGYL-0.0003796.45E-05-5.8702850.0000WHCB-0.0115330.003054-3.7762710.0020D(WHCB)0.0124010.0030864.0179470.0013R

18、-squared0.749905Mean dependent var105.2211Adjusted R-squared0.678449S.D. dependent var6.714626S.E. of regression3.807562Akaike info criterion5.732789Sum squared resid202.9653Schwarz criterion5.981326Log likelihood-49.46150F-statistic10.49466Durbin-Watson stat1.547921Prob(F-statistic)0.000382Estimation Command:LS CPI C GDZCTZZE HBGYL WHCB D(WHCB)Estimation Equation:CPI = C(1) + C(2)*GDZCTZZE + C(3)*HBGYL + C(4)*WHCB + C(5)*D(WHCB)Substituted Coefficie