專業(yè)英語物流與供應(yīng)鏈管理 4

1、Chapter 4 Strategic lead-time managementThis chapter：nExplores the cost of time and the drivers of time-based competition; shortening product life cycles, customers desire for reduced inventories and the dangers of being forecast dependent in an increasingly volatile marketplace. n探討時間成本和時間競爭的驅(qū)動力；正在

2、探討時間成本和時間競爭的驅(qū)動力；正在不斷縮短的產(chǎn)品生命周期，客戶減少庫存不斷縮短的產(chǎn)品生命周期，客戶減少庫存的要求，在動蕩的市場環(huán)境下過分依賴預(yù)的要求，在動蕩的市場環(huán)境下過分依賴預(yù)測的種種風(fēng)險。測的種種風(fēng)險。nExamines the concept of lead time, the order-to-delivery cycle, its components and the need to consider the wider context of the order to-cash cycle.n分析前置時間、訂單周期的概念及其構(gòu)成分析前置時間、訂單周期的概念及其構(gòu)成要素，從更大范圍來

3、考察訂貨變現(xiàn)周期。要素，從更大范圍來考察訂貨變現(xiàn)周期。nLooks at how the reduction of lead times can impact on the goals of logistics pipeline management.n研究縮短前置時間是如何影響物流渠道管研究縮短前置時間是如何影響物流渠道管理目標的。理目標的。nOutlines some of the ways in which inadequate systems design can lengthen lead times and engineer cost rather than value into

4、the logistics process.n概括了一些不恰當?shù)南到y(tǒng)設(shè)計方法，它們延長了概括了一些不恰當?shù)南到y(tǒng)設(shè)計方法，它們延長了前置時間，并增加了設(shè)計成本，卻對物流過程的前置時間，并增加了設(shè)計成本，卻對物流過程的增值貢獻不大。增值貢獻不大。nintroduces the concept of the lead-time gap, offering a number of suggestions for lead time. n介紹前置時間差的概念，提出一些縮短前置時間介紹前置時間差的概念，提出一些縮短前置時間的建議。的建議。Compendiumn1.Time-based competitio

5、nn2.The concept of lead timen3.Logistics pipeline managementn4.Logistics value engineeringn5.The lead-time gapn6.Summary1.Time-based competition時間競爭 Time is money.As far as cost is Concerned there is A direct relationship Between the lengthOf the logistics pipelineAnd the inventory that Is locked up

6、 in it.首先，就成本首先，就成本而言，物流渠而言，物流渠道的長度與渠道的長度與渠道中的存貨數(shù)道中的存貨數(shù)量有直接的關(guān)量有直接的關(guān)系。系。Secondly, long lead times mean a slower response to customer requirements.其次，過長的其次，過長的前置時間意味前置時間意味著對客戶需求著對客戶需求反應(yīng)的延遲。反應(yīng)的延遲。Customers in all markets, industrial or consumer, are increasingly time-sensitive.Question 1Question 1 What

7、 are the pressures leading to the growth of time-sensitive markets?Customers drive for for reduced inventoriesVolatile market making reliance on forecasts DangerousShortening life CyclesTime-sensitive market不斷縮短的產(chǎn)品生命周期客戶降低庫存的需求由于市場多變，過于依賴預(yù)測很危險 The concept of the product life cycle: For many products

8、, there is a recognizable pattern of sales from launch through to final decline.(1) Shortening life cycles許多產(chǎn)品從投入市場許多產(chǎn)品從投入市場到最后淡出市場，其到最后淡出市場，其銷量遵循一個公認的銷量遵循一個公認的模式。模式。The product life cycleSales()introductiongrowthmaturitysaturationdeclinetime導(dǎo)入期成長期成熟期飽和期衰退期產(chǎn)品生命周期2.Customers drive for reduced invento

9、ry one of the most pronounced phenomena of recent years has been the almost universal move by companies to reduce their inventories.這些年，一個最明顯的這些年，一個最明顯的現(xiàn)象就是全球所有的企現(xiàn)象就是全球所有的企業(yè)都在著手降低它們的業(yè)都在著手降低它們的庫存。庫存?？蛻艚档蛶齑娴男枨驫uestion 1 What is the difference between traditional and modern ways to service customers wh

10、o require just-in-time deliveries?nMany companies still think that the only way to service customers who require just-in-time deliveries is for them, the supplier, to carry the inventory instead of the customer.nInstead what is needed is for the supplier to substitute responsiveness for inventory wh

11、enever possible. 許多公司仍然認為，給客戶提許多公司仍然認為，給客戶提供及時配送服務(wù)的唯一方法，供及時配送服務(wù)的唯一方法，就是只能由供應(yīng)商代替客戶持就是只能由供應(yīng)商代替客戶持有庫存。有庫存。其實作為供應(yīng)商真正需其實作為供應(yīng)商真正需要的是：在必要的時候要的是：在必要的時候用快速反應(yīng)來代替大量用快速反應(yīng)來代替大量的庫存。的庫存。Question 2How to achieve responsiveness?Why? Responsiveness essentially is achieved through time compression in the supply chain.

12、 Time compressionService enhancementCost reduction壓縮時間完善服務(wù)縮減成本Breaking free of the classic service/cost trade-off打破傳統(tǒng)的服務(wù)、成本權(quán)衡關(guān)系3.Volatile market making reliance on forecasts dangerous Question nWhats the continuing problem for most organizations according to text?nWhats the root cause of these probl

13、ems?由于市場多變，過于依賴預(yù)測很危險nA continuing problem for most organizations is the inaccuracy of forecast.nWhilst many forecasting errors are the result of inappropriate forecasting methodology the root cause of these problems is that forecast error increases as led time increases.time+-ForecasterrorForecast e

14、rror and planning horizons預(yù)測誤差和計劃水平2.The concept of lead timeQuestion Whats the meaning of lead time from the customers viewpoint and from the suppliers perspective respectively?From the customers viewpointThe elapsed time from order to delivery.From the suppliers viewpointThe time it takes to conve

15、rt an order Into cash.從從發(fā)出訂單到發(fā)出訂單到收到貨物收到貨物的這段時的這段時間。間。從從接受訂單到接受訂單到收回現(xiàn)金收回現(xiàn)金的時間的時間(1)The order-to-delivery cycleCustomer Places orderOrderprocessingOrderentryOrderassemblyTransportOrderreceivedThe components of order cycle time客戶訂單提交 訂單錄入 訂單處理 訂單組貨 運輸 訂貨到達Total order cycle with variability1.Order comm

16、unication2.Order entry and processing3.Order picking or production5.Customer receiving4.transportationtotal3Time range1to5daysTime range1to3days2Time range1to9days53Time range1to5days2Time range1to3days5 days25 days15運輸訂單錄入及處理按單揀選或生產(chǎn)客戶接受訂貨前溝通訂單履行周期的變動程度nIn those situations where orders are not met f

17、rom stock but may have to be manufactured, assembled or sourced from external vendors, then clearly lead times will be even further extended with the possibility of still greater variations in total order-to-delivery time. Lead time componentn.Ordering reception lead tinePlanning lead timeProcessing

18、 lead timeMaterials planning and purchase lead timesupplier lead tinetransport lead tineReception and inspection lead tineAssembly release and order pickingWaiting timesProcessing timesTransport time to next stage(e.g.to inventory assembly)Dispatch preparation time(documents,packages)Transport time

19、to customerCommercial And planningLead time Materials Lead timesAssemblyLead timesDistributionLead timesInstallationLead times商業(yè)和計劃前置時間原材料前置時間匯總前置時間配送前置時間安裝前置時間前置時間構(gòu)成要素(2)The cash-to-cash cycleQuestion Whats the basic concern of any organization? what is rule of thumb?CumulativeLead timeprocurementT

20、o paymentRaw material stockSubassembly productionIntermediate stockProduct assemblyFinished stock at Central warehouseIn-transitRegional distribution Central stockCustomer order cycle累積的前置時間（從采購到付款）Strategic lead-time management The longer the pipeline from source of material to the final user the l

21、ess responsive to changes in demand the system will be.從原材料到最終使從原材料到最終使用者的渠道越長，用者的渠道越長，系統(tǒng)就越缺乏對需系統(tǒng)就越缺乏對需求變動的應(yīng)變能力求變動的應(yīng)變能力nAn approximate rule of thumb suggests that the amount of safety stock in a pipeline varies with the square foot of the pipeline length.一個類似于一個類似于“大大拇指拇指”的規(guī)則指的規(guī)則指出，安全庫存數(shù)出，安全庫存數(shù)量的多少取

22、決于量的多少取決于渠道長度的平方渠道長度的平方根。根。 3.logistics pipeline managementQuestion 1 How to control logistics lead times successfully?nThe key to the successful control of the logistics lead time is pipeline management.成功控制物流前置成功控制物流前置時間的關(guān)鍵是實施時間的關(guān)鍵是實施物流渠道管理。物流渠道管理。Question 2 What are the goals of the pipeline mana

23、gement?The goals of the pipeline managementgoals Lower costs Higher qualityMore flexibility Faster response time更低的成本更高的質(zhì)量高強的靈活性更快的反應(yīng)速度How to achieve these goalsnManage the supply chain as an entity and seeking to reduce the pipeline length and/or cost to speed up the flow through that pipeline.nTo

24、find ways in which the ratio of value-added to cost-added time in the pipeline can be improved. 將將供應(yīng)鏈作為一個整體進行管理，供應(yīng)鏈作為一個整體進行管理，并縮短整個渠道的長度，同時（或并縮短整個渠道的長度，同時（或者）加速物品在渠道中的流動。者）加速物品在渠道中的流動。找到可以提高增值時間與成本增加找到可以提高增值時間與成本增加時間比率的方法。時間比率的方法。Value-adding time(time,place and form utility)Cost-adding time(promoti

25、on,storage and transport cost and the time cost of money)Raw materialstockproductionFinished stockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryCost-added versus value-added time引起價值增加和成本增加的活動（時間、地點和形態(tài)效用）增值時間原材料庫存生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)成品庫存運輸區(qū)域庫存客戶配送Cost-added versus value-added time 成本增加時間（促銷、倉儲和運輸成本及時間成本）Value-adding timeRa

26、w materialstockproductionFinished stockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryRaw materialstockproductionFinished stockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryCost-adding timeReducing non-value-adding time improves service and reduces cost通過減少非增值時間來提高服務(wù)水平并降低成本3.Logistics value engineeringnMany busine

27、ss have invested heavily in automation in the factory with the aim of reducing throughput times.nHowever it is paradoxical that many of those same business that have spent millions of pounds on automation to speed up the time it takes to manufacture a product are then content to let it sit in a dist

28、ribution centre or warehouse for weeks waiting to be sold. nThe requirement is to look across the different stages in the supply chain to see how time as a whole can be reduced through reengineering the way the chain is structured. Example 1: Planning cycle/manufacturing lead time Example 2: Forecas

29、ting and ordering of suppliers Example 3: Warehouse picking and distributionOne pointIn so many cases it is possible to find considerable Opportunity for total lead-time reduction, often throughSome very simple changes in procedure. 4.The lead-time gapQuestion 1 According to the text, most organizat

30、ions face a fundamental problem, what is it? The time it takes to procure, make and deliver the finished product to a customer is longer than the time the customer is prepared to wait for it. This is the basis of the lead-time gap.The lead-time gapprocurementCustomers order cycledeliverymanufacturin

31、gLogistics lead timeThe lead-time gapOrder fulfillment采購生產(chǎn)配送物流前置時間客戶訂貨周期前置時間差訂單履行Question 2 Whats the customers order cycle? The length of time that the customer is prepare to wait, from when the order is placed through to when the goods are received. The competitive conditions of the market as well

32、 as the nature of the product will influence the customers willingness to wait.The factors that influence the customers willingness to wait: How to close the lead-time gap?nshortening logistics lead timenMove the customers order cycle closer by gaining earlier warning of requirements through improve

33、d visibility of demand.縮短物流前置時間縮短物流前置時間通過提高需求的可見性，通過提高需求的可見性，盡量把客戶訂貨周期調(diào)整盡量把客戶訂貨周期調(diào)整到與早期得到的需求信息到與早期得到的需求信息更接近。更接近。Question 3 All the logistics processes can be viewed as a network of inter-linked activities that can be optimized as a whole by focusing on total throughput time. Any attempt to manage b

34、y optimizing individual elements or activities in the process will lead to a less-than-optimal result overall. 所有的物流過程都能被看做是所有的物流過程都能被看做是 由各由各種具有內(nèi)在聯(lián)系的活動所形成的一種具有內(nèi)在聯(lián)系的活動所形成的一個網(wǎng)絡(luò)，要想優(yōu)化這個網(wǎng)絡(luò)，必須個網(wǎng)絡(luò)，要想優(yōu)化這個網(wǎng)絡(luò)，必須要通過調(diào)整總體運營時間才能得以要通過調(diào)整總體運營時間才能得以實現(xiàn)。而單純通過優(yōu)化個別要素或?qū)崿F(xiàn)。而單純通過優(yōu)化個別要素或過程中個別活動只能得到一個次優(yōu)過程中個別活動只能得到一個次優(yōu)化的結(jié)果?；慕Y(jié)

35、果。（1）reducing logistics lead -timeQuestion 4 Whats OPT? whats its essence?nA significant contribution to the way we view logistics processes has been made by Goldratt who has developed the theory of constraints(約束理論) which is more usually known as Optimized Production Technology （生產(chǎn)技術(shù)優(yōu)化理論）(OPT).nThe

36、 essence of OPT is that all activities in a logistics chain can be categorized as either bottlenecks or non-bottlenecks.OPTOPT把一個把一個物流鏈中的所有物流鏈中的所有活動劃分為瓶頸活動劃分為瓶頸類或非瓶頸類。類或非瓶頸類。Question 5What is a bottleneck? A bottleneck is the slowest activity in a chain and whilst it may often be a machine, it could

37、 also be a part of the information flow such as order processing. 瓶頸是指整個鏈中最瓶頸是指整個鏈中最慢的活動，它可以是慢的活動，它可以是一臺機器，也可以是一臺機器，也可以是像訂單處理一樣的信像訂單處理一樣的信息流的一部分。息流的一部分。nFurther opportunities for pipeline time reduction can normally be found at the interface with suppliers logistics system.(2)Improving visibility of

38、 demandnThe idea that it could be possible to extend the customers order cycle may at first sight seem implausible.nNo, what is meant by extending the customers order cycle is that we should seek to obtain significantly earlier warnings of the customers requirement.nWhat we frequently find is that f

39、irst of all the demand penetration point is too far down the pipeline and that secondly, real demand is hidden from view and all we tend to see are orders.nBoth these points need further explanation; firstly the concept of the demand penetration point.Question 1 1Whats the demand penetration point?

40、The definition of the demand penetration point is that it occurs at that point in the logistics chain where real demand meets the plan. Upstream from this point everything is driven by a forecast and /or a plan. Downstream we can respond to customer demand.在物流鏈中需求與計劃達在物流鏈中需求與計劃達成一致的點。預(yù)測或計劃成一致的點。預(yù)測或計

41、劃驅(qū)動著需求滲透點上游的驅(qū)動著需求滲透點上游的活動，下游所做的就是對活動，下游所做的就是對客戶需求做出反應(yīng)?？蛻粜枨笞龀龇磻?yīng)。Question 2 2nWhats the key concern of logistics management?nHow to achieve it?nA key concern of logistics management should be to seek to identify ways in which the demand penetration point can be pushed as far as possible upstream.nThis

42、 might be achieved by the use of information so that manufacturing and purchasing get to hear of what is happening in the marketplace faster than they currently do.nThe other route to achieving an upstream shift of the order penetration point is by postponing the final commitment of the product to i

43、ts final form. nFollowing figure illustrates a range of possible demand penetration points in different industrial and market contexts.DrivenByforecastDriven BydemandplantDistributioncentralwarehousedepots需求滲透點和戰(zhàn)略庫存Demand penetration point and strategic inventory In a sense the information we receiv

44、e, if we only have the order to rely on, is like the tip of an iceberg. the order cycle time (i.e. the required response time from order to delivery) may only be the visible tip.在某種意義上，如果我們在某種意義上，如果我們僅僅依賴手頭的訂單，則僅僅依賴手頭的訂單，則所獲得的信息猶如冰山一所獲得的信息猶如冰山一角。訂貨周期時間也可能角。訂貨周期時間也可能僅僅是信息冰山上可視的僅僅是信息冰山上可視的一角。一角。 The a

45、rea below the surface of the iceberg represents the ongoing consumption, demand or usage of the product which is hidden from the view of the supplier. It is only when an order is issued that demand becomes transparent.海平面以下的部分代表著海平面以下的部分代表著未來的消費、需求或者使未來的消費、需求或者使用產(chǎn)品的信息，而這些統(tǒng)用產(chǎn)品的信息，而這些統(tǒng)統(tǒng)是在供應(yīng)商的視野之外統(tǒng)是在供應(yīng)商的視野之外的。只有當訂單發(fā)出之時的。只有當訂單發(fā)出之時，需求才變得透明。，需求才變得透明。The information icebergOrder cycletimeAc