精選中聯(lián)電氣002323股權(quán)資本成本估計(jì)資料

1、產(chǎn)品（單位：百萬(wàn)兀）200720082009E2010E2011E隔爆型移動(dòng)變電站營(yíng)業(yè)收入4369991291542500KVA及以上同比增長(zhǎng)72.62%60.43%42.74%30.00%20.00%毛利率51.22%48.82%50.00%50.00%50.00%800KVA-2000KV營(yíng)業(yè)收入677885111155同比增長(zhǎng)23.99%15.49%9.12%30.00%40.00%A毛利率35.20%31.59%31.59%31.59%31.59%630KVA及以下營(yíng)業(yè)收入62697193130同比增長(zhǎng)3.26%11.11%3.32%30.00%40.00%毛利率32.58%23.05

2、%23.05%23.05%23.05%隔爆型移動(dòng)變電營(yíng)業(yè)收入173216255332439同比增長(zhǎng)站小計(jì)23.77%25.15%18.04%30.00%32.25%毛利率38.26%34.39%36.34%36.34%35.54%隔爆型干式變壓器營(yíng)業(yè)收入12232500KVA及以上同比增長(zhǎng)一一一一100.00%毛利率一一一27.00%27.00%800KVA-2000KV營(yíng)業(yè)收入 同比增長(zhǎng)4231021-38.58%7.50%300.00%100.00%A毛利率32.23%26.86%26.86%26.86%26.86%營(yíng)業(yè)收入3345495976630KVA及以下同比增長(zhǎng)-37.90%33.

3、85%9.49%20.00%30.00%毛利率27.29%26.08%26.08%26.08%26.08%隔爆型干式變壓營(yíng)業(yè)收入37475181120同比增長(zhǎng)器小計(jì)-37.76%26.20%9.39%56.49%49.03%毛利率27.81%26.12%26.12%26.12%26.12%營(yíng)業(yè)收入1412141720配件及修理費(fèi)等同比增長(zhǎng)189.07%-15.69%20.00%20.00%15.00%毛利率26.47%37.54%37.54%37.54%37.54%營(yíng)業(yè)收入224275321430579收入合計(jì)同比增長(zhǎng)9.72%22.73%16.65%33.80%34.70%綜合毛利率35.7

4、7%33.11%34.75%34.47%33.65%二、公司估值(一) DCF絕對(duì)估值經(jīng)過(guò)計(jì)算，DCF (WACC = 8.37, g = 3%)= 27.82，敏感性分析的合理估值區(qū)間是(23.81 ,33.63)。具體估值過(guò)程見附表。表2:絕對(duì)估值敏感性分析27.82永續(xù)增長(zhǎng)率g2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%本6.87%33.1536.0439.6744.3850.73成7.37%29.7632.0334.8138.3142.85本7.87%26.9628.7730.9533.6337.00資8.37%24.6126.0827.8229.9232.50權(quán)CA8.87%22.602

5、3.8125.2326.9028.93A 加W9.37%20.8721.8823.0424.4126.039.87%19.3620.2121.1822.3123.62（二）相對(duì)估值按照發(fā)行后的總股本，預(yù)計(jì)公司09、10和11年的EPS分別為0.92、1.13和1.44元，業(yè)績(jī)年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到 27.1%。根據(jù)行業(yè)發(fā)展前景、公司成長(zhǎng)性和行業(yè)地位，我們認(rèn)為公司的合理相對(duì)估值為按 2010年動(dòng)態(tài)市盈率2530倍，對(duì)應(yīng)股價(jià)為 2833.6元。公司估值比較見 報(bào)告后的電氣設(shè)備公司估值表。表3: A股主要變壓器相關(guān)公司估值表股價(jià)總市值 PE公司代碼2009.12.11白力兀20082009E2010E20

6、11E特變電工600089.SH244313744.827.325.121.3天威保變600550.SH33.673932741.755.535.825.4三變科技002112.SZ14.31158667.444.546.135.3平均51.342.435.627.3中聯(lián)電氣002323.SZ30248342.932.526.620.8（三）公司合理價(jià)值為2833.6元綜合以上兩種估值方法，結(jié)合目前市場(chǎng)整體估值水平，我們認(rèn)為公司的合理價(jià)值為2833.6元，相當(dāng)于2010年2530倍的動(dòng)態(tài)市盈率。（四）風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì)表4:2008A2009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E

7、2016E2017E2018E6534814910681391316355188919862088219122982411EBIT.9.80.9.8.84.35.28.93.38.57.0819.10222136.2782.3271.3778.397341774382.4597.4823.所得稅9.52829.0.8774546457157127.8544.11131130815111589167117531839NOPLAT.3.037.04.65.42.21.10.60.8437.-205-1603-3975-5488-4226-427-113-1198-1138-1195營(yíng)運(yùn)資金凈變動(dòng)9

8、4.6.0.9.8.75.83.0.9.8.7-187.-500-1500-2000-1000-1000-100-200-2000-2000-200資本支出80.00.0.0.0.00.00.0.0.00.0自由現(xiàn)金3643897.-94435007.9447.115715601548164917431827流.60.4615.63.70.92.72.05.0WACC8.4%12.02Ke%27.82g永續(xù)增長(zhǎng)6.742.002.503.003.504.00率3%Kd%9108.20.006.8733.136.0終值6t%5439.6744.3850.7323022.507.3729.732.

9、0企業(yè)價(jià)值34.8Rf%6334.8138.3142.85非核心資5887.E(R11.007.8726.928.7產(chǎn)價(jià)值8m)%6730.9533.6337.00Rm8.508.3724.626.0債務(wù)價(jià)值0.00-Rf%1827.8229.9232.5023020.008.8722.623.8股權(quán)價(jià)值34.8D/A%0125.2326.9028.938276.100.09.3720.821.8股本00E/A0%CAW%7823.0424.4126.039.8719.320.2每股價(jià)值27.82Beta1.12%6121.1822.3123.62方法：由于本次作業(yè)為估測(cè)單個(gè)股票的B系數(shù)，則先以每日的收盤價(jià)分別計(jì)算當(dāng)日指數(shù)收益率