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1、實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)論In this argume nt, the arguer con eludes thatdoing will lead toTo support the con clusi on, the arguer points out thatT n additi on, the arguer reas ons thatThe argume nt suffers from several critical fallacies.自己應(yīng)該干嗎根據(jù)觀察和現(xiàn)象自己改正根據(jù)因果In this argume nt, the arguer recomme nds thatshould advise to T

2、o justify this claim, the arguer provides the evide nee thatThus should follow the studys recomme ndati on and in order to自己嘗試新方法根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)和假想The con clusi on in this argume nt is thatcan expect to by doing In support of this predicti on, the arguer claims thatMoreover, the arguer assumes that thisattempt

3、 has benefits:1) to; 2)to; 3)to; This argument is fraught with vague, ov ersimplified, and unwarranted assumptions.換一個(gè)供應(yīng)商In this argume nt, the arguer advocates thatshould This recomme ndati on is based on the observati on thatMean while, the arguer assumes to be a better choice because This argumen

4、t is problematic forreasons.自己應(yīng)該干嗎根據(jù)其他州的情況In this an alysis, the arguer claims that usi on, the arguer cites the example ofshould To substa ntiate the conclwhere I n additi on, the arguer assumes that This argument is unconvincing for several critical flaws.正文部分The majorproblem with this argumentis

5、thatAnotherflaw that weakens this argumentis that. In addition, the arguer ignores severalfactorsthatmight underminethe argumen t.the arguer fails to con sider several other releva nt factors that might i n flue neeFor instaneesincewhat 'snore etc.樣本的問題:When samplesare usedto makegen eralclaimsa

6、bouta particulargroup, thesamples shouldbe closeenoughin timeto thegen erati onthey areused to support, so thathistoricalchangeswill notin validatethegen eralizati on調(diào)查survey 的問題:The sample of the surveycon ductedby the is vague.But we are told nothing about the way the poll was conducted and how we

7、ll itrepresentedthe publicopinions.(民意測(cè)驗(yàn))How manypeopleparticipated?The sampleof thesurvey is not representative.數(shù)據(jù)的問題:(平均值) The study revealed, onaverage, only a small statisticalcorrelationbetween(實(shí)驗(yàn)的數(shù)據(jù)不可靠) the data of the research is unconvincing(樣本太?。﹖he sample is too small to.(光數(shù)字沒比例)the ratio

8、of four to sixthere is only figures but no proportion of the survey還是 ratio?Insufficient SampleIf the respondentsonly standfor a tiny proportionof the whole group,we shouldnot be so sure about the conclusionthat the whole group The arguer commitsa fallacy of hastygeneralization.It was only carriedou

9、t in Sun City, but the arguer applies its result to allthe companysmarkets while doesn ' tshow us whether Sun City is a representative market of the whole markets. 實(shí)驗(yàn)組的人:性別,年齡,生理特征副作用 有的病人會(huì)對(duì)抗生素過敏錯(cuò)誤的類比:But the problem is that the two situations e analogical deduction .錯(cuò)誤的比較:are not similar enough

10、 to justify thThe comparisonin this argumentis incompleteand selective. The arguer discovers thatHowever,the arguer fails to provideany informationregarding respectively別的因素:Furthermore the arguer ignores the possibility that may Unless the arguer also takes this factor into consideration, the compa

11、rison is unconvincing.It is very likely that and hence varies significantly.沒有因果:Confusing causal relation with correlationthe arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization . Even i f the maintenance of the airline has been improved as a result ofsending its mechanics to the Seminar, which is, of

12、 course, an u nwarranted assumption, it does not follow that 就算怎樣,也不怎樣Fin ally,the arguer hintsthat but he fails to analyzethecauses. Isit because or because?其他:The fact that -does not necessarilyimplythat First of all, theargume ntis basedon a hastygeneralization.Accord ingto thecited studies which

13、is understandable.It is very likelythat and hence -variessig nifica ntly.分析常用:the actual amount of time for doing respectivelyThe survey is based on two isolated examples. The arguer should survey more hospitals o f both types.Howlargewas the sampleHowmanypeopleparticipated?Whatexte ntdo this partic

14、ipatorsimprovetheirspeed?Thearguerfails toin dicatetheattitude oftheresidentsto the ABC's performan ce.循環(huán)假設(shè)The arguer commits a fallacy of begging the question in assuming that結(jié)尾部分To sum up, the conclusionlacks credibility because the evideneecited in the analysisdoes not lend strongsupport to w

15、hat the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidenee concerninIng.Inthe perce ntagesummary,con clusi on,tren gthe nthebetter evaluateAs it stands,thetheof the affected families and their geographicalconclusionreached in thisarguer failsto establishdist

16、ributi on.argume ntis in validand mislead ina causalrelati on shipbetween To sargume nt,thearguer wouldhave toprovideevideneethat Tothe argume nt,we would need morein formatio naboutthe argumentis not well reasoned.Tomake it logically acceptable, the arguerwould have to dem on stratethat isthe only

17、con diti onthat Additi on ally,the arguer must provideevideneeto rule out other possible causesof the范文觀摩Argument37 The following is a memorandumfrom the director of pers onnel to the preside ntof Get-Away Airli nes."Since our mecha nicsare resp on siblefor in spect ingand maintainingour aircra

18、ft, Get-Away Airlines should pay to send them to the Quality-Care Seminar, a two-weekseminaron proper maintenance procedures. I recommendthis seminar because it is likely to be a wise investment,given that the automobile raci ng in dustry rece ntly reported that t he performaneeof its maintenance cr

19、ews improved markedly after their crews had atte ndedthe sem inar. These maintenance crewsperformmany ofthesame functions asdoour mecha ni cs,in clud ingrefueli ng and repairi ngengin es.The money wespend onsendingourstaffto the seminarwillinevitablylead to improved maintenance and thus to greater c

20、ustomer satisfact ion along with greater profits for our airli ne."建議,看別人好自己也要In this argume nt,the arguer con cludes that sending themechanics of Get-Away Airlines to a two-weekQuality-CareSeminar on proper maintenance procedures will automatically lead to improved maintenanceand to greater cu

21、stomer satisfactionalongwith greaterprofits for the airline. To support the conclusion,the arguerpointsout that the performaneeof the maintenance crews in the automobileracing industry improvedmarkedly after their crews had attendedthe seminar. In addition, the arguer reasonsthat since the maintenan

22、ce crews of the automobileracing industry and the mechanics of Get-Away Airlines perform manyof the samefunctions, theairli nes willgain similar ben efitsfromthe trainingprogram.Thisargumentsuffers from several critical fallacies.First, the argumentIs based on a falseanalogy.The arguer simply assume

23、s that airplane mechanicsand automobile maintenance crews perform many similar functions,but he does notprovide any evide nee that their fun cti ons are in deed comparable . As we know, the structure, operation and function of airplanes an d those of automobiles differ conspicuously. It is true that

24、 both the airplane and the automobile need refueling and engine mainte nan ce, but eve n here there exist fun dame ntaldiffere nces: the structure and the building materials of each other's engines are diff erent, so is the oil they use. Therefore, even though the two-wee k Quality-Care Seminar

25、proved effective in improving the perform ance of the maintenance crews in the automobileracing industry,there is no guaranteethat it will work just as well for airplanemecha ni cs.Second,the arguer commits a fallacyof hastygeneralization . Even if the maintenance of the airline has been improved as

26、 a result of sendingits mechanicsto the Seminar, which is, ofcourse, an unwarranted assumption,it does not follow that therewill be greater profits as well as greater customer satisfactionfor the airline.As we know, customer satisfaction depends on several major factors other than good maintenance o

27、f the airplane.For in sta nee,customers are gen erally concerned about the punctuality, the on-boardservice , the ticket price, the luggage handlingprocedure and even the discount , all of which are ignored by th e arguer . Besides, the arguer does not provide any solid in format ion concerning how

28、the airpla necan improve its profits. Un less Get-Away Airli nes can sig nifica ntlyin crease its customers or passengers and at the same time cut down its costs, both of which ar e unknownfrom this argument , there is no guaranteethat it wil l"inevitably" harvestgreater profits . Actually

29、, the arguer's recommendationof investingin this training program as the only way to in creasecustomer satisfacti on and profits would most probablyturn out to be in effectiveand misleadi ng.In con clusi on, ati on shipbetwee n-Care Sem inar and faction and greaterthe arguer fails to sending Get

30、-A way's improved maintenance, profits for the airline.establisha causalrelmechanicsto the Qualitygreatercustomer satisTo strengthenthe argument, the arguer would have to provide evidenee that a utomobile maintenance and airplane maintenance are similar in every aspect . To better evaluate the a

31、rgument, we would ne ed morein formatio nabout the relati on shipbetwee nimprovedmaintenance and greater customer satisfaction along with greaterArgument 47: The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide geographic differences, many citize ns are experiencing rising costs of ele

32、ctricity. A recent stu dy of household electric costs in Claria found that families who cooled their houses with fans alone spent more on el ectricity than did families using air conditioners alone for cooling. However, those households that reported using bo th fans and air conditioners spent less

33、on electricity than t hose households that used either fans or air conditioners a lone. Thus, the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity.建議,根據(jù)不科學(xué)查In this argument, the arguer recommends that Claria

34、sh ould advise its citizensto install both air conditionersand fans fo r cooling in order to reduce the cost of electricity. To justify thi s claim, the arguer provides the evidence that many citizens of Clariasuffer from the rising costs of electricity. In addition, he cites the result of a recent

35、study that using fans alone co sts more than using air conditionersalone, and that using both a ir conditionersand fans costs less than either using fans or air c onditionersalone. A careful examination of this argument w ould reveal how groundless the conclusion is.In the first place, the arguer fa

36、ils to take into account the geographical factors in the analysis. While we are inform ed that there are wide geographicadifferencesin the nation of C laria, and that many citizens are experiencingrising costs of elec tricity, the arguer fails to make clear the exact number of tho se citizensor thei

37、r percentagein the national population as well as the geographicadistribution of these citizens. If only a small portion of the whole populationare experiencingthe rising costs of electricity while most families do not have similar experience, then the reasonmight be that the former do not use elect

38、ricity s paringly. In this case, the rising costs of those families have noth ing to do with what kind of electricappliancethey use to cool th eir houses.Or if only families living in hot areasare spendingm ore money on cooling, then it is unwise to require citizensliving in temperateand frigid zone

39、sto install both fans and air conditioners. In the absenceof all this information it is impossiblefor u s to evaluatethe recommendecpolicy that is intended to help ev ery householdnationwideto reducetheir electricity cost.In the second place, the comparison in this argument i s incomplete and select

40、ive. The arguer discoversthat using fa ns alone is more cost effective than using air conditionersalone, and that using both fans and air conditionersare the least expen sive way of cooling. However,the arguer fails to provide any info rmation regardingthe actual amount of time for using, respective

41、 ly, fans alone, air conditionersalone, and both fans and air condi tioners in those three groups of surveyedfamilies. It is very likel y that these three groups of families are locatedin three very dif ferent climatic regionsof Claria, and hencethe amount of days o f the year during which they need

42、 to cool their housesvaries sig nificantly Familiesliving in cooler areas of the nation certainly co ol their housesfor fewer hours and henceuse less electricity tha n familiesliving in hot areas, no matter what cooling appliancet hey use. Unlesswe are certain that the surveyedfamilies live in the s

43、ame climatic region, or that they need to cool their housesf or the same amount of hours in the same year althoughthey liv e in different regions, which is very unlikely, we have every reas on to doubt the trustworthinessof this comparativestudy. Furthe rmore, the arguer ignores the possibilitythat

44、the families who ar e spendingmore on electricity may be using more electricity for purposesother-than cooling.Unlessthe arguer also takes this fac tor into consideration,the comparisonis unconvincing.To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not len

45、d strong suppo rt to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argume nt, the arguer would have to provide more evidence conce rning the percentageof the affectedfamilies and their geographi cal distribution. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information regarding the electricex

46、penserelevan t to the actual amount of time for coolingamong, respectively,t he three groups of householdsand the amount of electricity used for other purposesin all three groupsof families under survey.Argument57: The followingappeared in a letter from a departme ntchairpers on to the preside nt of

47、 PierceUn iversity."Somestudiescon ductedby BronstonCollege,whichis also located1 ina small town,reveal thatboth mate andfemale professorsare happierlivi ng insmalltow nswhe ntheirspousesarealso employedin thesamegeographicarea. Therefore,inthe interestof attractingthe mostgiftedteachers andres

48、earchersto ourfacultyandimprovi ngthemorale of our entirestaff, weat PierceUni versityshouldofferemployme ntto the spouseof eachnewfacultymember we hire.Althoughwe cannotexpectalloffers tobe accepted or to be viewed as an ideal job offer, the moneyinvested in this effort will clearly be well spent b

49、ecause, if their s pouses have a chaneeof employment,new professors willbe more likely to accept our offers."建議,看人家好自己也要In thisan alysis,the arguer claims that Pierce Un iversityshould offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty mem ber that they hire. To substantiate the conclusion,the

50、arguer cites the example of Bronston College where professors prefer to have their spouse employedin the same geographical area. Inaddition, the arguerassumesthat this offer of a possible jobfor their spouse on the campus,no matter whether it will be accepted, is the only factor that new professors

51、consider in decidin g whether to accept a universityposition. This argumentis unconvincing for several critical flaws.First of all, the argument is based on a hasty generaliz ation . According to the cited studies, professors at Bronston Col lege are happier liv ing in small tow ns whe n their spous

52、es are als o employed in the local areathan whentheirspouseswork in distant areas, which is understandable.This fact tells very little about what actual conditions theprofessorsoften consideras important when they choose where to work. Even if we accept the argu er's assumptionthat whether their

53、 spouse can find a job in the local area is the only importantquestionthatnew professors consider when they decide whetherto acceptan offer in auniversitysituated in a small town, the arguer'srecommendationis still unconvincing. Only when the offer of employment to the spouse is r egarded as an

54、ideal one and therefore accepted is it likely that t he professor will consider accepting the university's offer. Conseq uently, it is unwarranted to assume that new professors will acce pt Pierce's offer whether their spouse can find satisfactory employme ntin the local area.Inadditi on,the

55、arguerfails tocon siderseveralother releva ntfactorsthatmay in flue neenew professors'decision. Forin sta nee,sincePierce'slocatio nis not ideal, thepay it offers should behigh eno ugh tobe attractive.New giftedprofessorsare also concerned about the position they can have and the co urses th

56、ey are supposed to teach in the new university. What's more, what researchers care most about might be the university' s research conditions such as laboratory equipments, adequate re search funds , etc.Fin ally, the arguer hints that the morale of Pierce's ent ire staff is low, but he fails to analyze the causes. Is it bec ause the management of the university is poor, or because the p ay is too low, or because the loc

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