資料文本說(shuō)明成果europe s outlook low inflation and political risks take

1、European Economics AnalystEuropes outlook: Low inflation and political risks take centre stage25 February 2016The net effect of the recent market volatility on Europes growth outlook is likely to be relatively small in our assessment, with the boost to growth from lower oil prices offsetting the hit

2、 from weaker equity prices and a stronger Euro exchange rate.However, the downside risks relative to our central (modal) growth forecasts have increased materially. Three risks, in particular, are worth highlighting: rst, the slowdown in the global industrial cycle appears more pronounced than we ha

3、dHuw Pill+44(20)7774-8736 | huw.pill Goldman Sachs InternationalKevin Daly+44(20)7774-5908 | kevin.daly Goldman Sachs InternationalDirk Schumacher+49(69)7532-1210 |dirk.schumacher Goldman Sachs AGAndrew Benito+44(20)7051-4004 |andrew.benito Goldman Sachs InternationalAlain Durr+33(1)4212-1127 | alai

4、n.durre Goldman Sachs Paris Inc. et CieLasse Holboell Nielsen+44(20)7774-5205 |lasseholboell.nielsen Goldman Sachs InternationalMatteo Leombroni+44(20)7552-0411 |matteo.leombroni Goldman Sachs InternationalPierre Vernet+44(20)7552-0428 |pierre.vernet Goldman Sachs Internationalnnpreviouslyipated; se

5、cond, the increase in the credit sps of Europeanbanks threatens to de-rail the easing in domestic credit conditions that is underway; and, third, the political risks presented by the UKs EU referendum on 23 June and by Europes ongoing refugee crisis continue to pose a threat toEuropes economic outlo

6、ok. We continue to monitor each of these risksly.While our (modal) growth forecasts have been broadly unchanged since our lastnquarterly forecast update, we havesignicant downward revisions to ournear-term ination forecasts in reaction to the fall in oil prices and the rise in the Euro exchange rate

7、.Responding to the weakness in near-term ination dynamics, we expect the ECB to announce a number of additional easing measures at its 10 March meeting, including a 10bp cut to the deposit rate, a 10bn per month increase in the rate of asset purchases and a six-month extension of the Asset Purchase

8、Programme (APP) to September 2017. Outside the Euro area, the sharp fall in oil prices and the associated weakness of near-term ination are also driving monetary policy prospects.We expect the weakness of ination and the increase in political risk acrossnnEurope to dominate marketiment in the comont

9、hs.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certication and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to.Goldman SachsEuropean Economics AnalystA moderate recovery continuesAhead of the ECBs Governing Council

10、meeting on 10 March, in this weeksEuropean Economics Analyst we pro macroeconomic outlook.ur own quarterly update of ourAccording to Eurostats Flash estimate, Euro area real GDP rose by +0.3%qoq (+1.1%qoq annualised) in 2015Q4, the same growth rate as recorded in Q3. Based on this estimate, real GDP

11、 rose by +1.5%yoy in 2015 as a whole (Exhibit 1).It may be that GDP data for the second half of the year understate Euro area growthsomewhat. Early GDP growth estimates for the Euro aisplay a statisticallysignicant downward bias, and business surveys and other indicators of economic activity were co

12、nsistent with GDP growth of around 1.5-2.0% annualised throughout 2015, stronger than the ofcial data currently indicate. In time, we expect that GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 will be revised higher.Nevertheless, even factoring in the likelihood of some upward revisions to GDP, the recovery in Euro area o

13、utput last year was moderate rather than robust. Moreover, growth appears to have weakened somewhat around the turn of the year: the FlashComposite PMI fell to 52.7 in February, from aage of 54.1 in Q4. And RETINA,our real-time tracker of Euro area GDP, is consistent with +0.1%qoq output growth in Q

14、1 (Exhibit 2). Much of this deceleration in activity appears to have been centred in the externally-exposed industrial sector, with growth in more domestically-focused sectors remaining relatively resilient.Exhibit 1: Euro area growth has slowed slightlyEuro area GDP, Composite PMIExhibit 2: RETINAs

15、 median estimate consistent with +0.1%qoq growth in Q1Source: Markit, Eurostat, Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchEuro area growth to remain resilient, but risks increaseSource: Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchOne of the central themes of our European research over the past year has be

16、en the view that Euro area growth would be supported by a combination of four factors: (i)lower energy prices; (ii) past exchange rate weakness; (iii) easier domestic n conditions, particularly in the periphery; and (iv) looser scal policy.alThese four factors continue to play a central role in our

17、views on the Euro area growth outlook and in our belief that Euro area growth will remain relatively resilient even in the face of global headwinds. While the period since our previous forecast25 February 2016Page 2Goldman SachsEuropean Economics Analystupdate three months ago has been marked by con

18、siderable market volatility (and this has increased the downside risks to our forecast), in our base case we expect the net effect of these developments on the Euro areas growth outlook to be relatively small, with the boost to growth from lower oil prices offsetting the hit from weaker equity price

19、s and a stronger exchange rate.A simple means of illustrating the likely effects of both recent and past developments in oil, equity and exchange rate developments on growth prospects isvia oury reckoner analysis. Exhibit 3 provides updated estimates of thecumulative impulse to Euro area quarter-on-

20、quarter output growth from all past changes in oil prices, equity prices, the Euro effective exchange rate, short-term interest rates, scal policy, and global growth. This suggests that the support to Euro area growth from changes in these variables remains signicant.1. In Exhibit 4 we provide the s

21、ame breakdown but only include the effect of changes that have taken place since our last forecast round in November. These results suggest that, while the net effects from changes in the past three months on future growth are likely to be negative, those effects appear relatively small.Exhibit 3: T

22、he contribution to Euro area GDP growth from weaker oil prices and past Euro weakness remains materially positive. Shock impulse on qoq output growth relative to benchmarkExhibit 4: . But the net effect of new shocks on growth appears slightly negative Shock impulse on qoq output growth relative to

23、benchmark (static analysis)Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver AnalyticsSource: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver AnalyticsBased on this assessment, our central (modal) projection for sequential growth in the Euro area is little changed from what we were forecasting

24、 three months ago(and, from what we were forecasting this time last year). We do notipate that the recent softening in activity data represents the start of a more marked downturn.While our modal forecasts for growth are broadly unchanged, the downside risks relative to this forecast appear greater

25、now than they did three months ago. Three risks, in particular, are worth highlighting: rst, the slowdown in the global industrial1.These estimates are provided relative to a no shock benchmark which, for simplicity, we assume tobe growth in line with the Euro areas historical average of 0.35%qoq. A

26、nd, for the purpose of thissimulation, we assume that each of the six variables remains unchanged at current/trend levels. The results should be treated with caution, not only because the estimates themselves are inevitably imprecise but also because, for the purpose of this exercise, we are implici

27、tly making the (unrealistic) assumption that developments in all six variables represent independent, exogenous shocks to the Euro area economy.25 February 2016Page Goldman SachsEuropean Economics Analystcycle appears more marked than we had previouslyipated; second, theincrease in credit sps on Eur

28、opean banks threatens to de-rail the easing indomestic credit conditions that is underway (something we discuss in morethe box below); and, third, the political risks presented by the UKs EU referendum on 23 June and by Europes ongoing refugee crisis pose a threat to Europesineconomic outlook. We co

29、ntinue to monitor these risksly.Exhibit 5 sets out our European GDP forecasts for the period up to 2019. We expect the Euro area to grow by 1.4% in 2016 (vs. a current Consensus of 1.7%), 1.5% in 2017, 1.6% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019. In the near term, our forecasts imply a small pick-up in sequential

30、 growth, from a growth rate of +0.3%qoq in Q3 and Q4 to an average pace of +0.4%qoq (+1.6%qoq annl.) over the next year.Exhibit 5: Our annual GDP growth forecasts, 2015-2019Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchOn a country-by-country basis, real GDermany rose by +1.5% in 2015 and weexpect

31、 growth to remainto this level over the forecast horizon. French GDProse by +1.1% in 2015 and, while the economy continues to be held back by an ongoing reform process, we expect GDP to rise broadly in line with the Euro area average in 2016 and 2017, before surpassing Euro area growth in 2018 and 2

32、019. Our expectation that French economic growth will surpass German growth in the co years reects our view that there is currently more spare capacity in the French economy and that its potential growth rate is higher.In the Euro area periphery, real GDP in Spain rose by 3.2% in 2015 and, given the

33、 still high levels of unemployment in that economy, we think that there remains scope for it to continue to outpace area-wide growth over the forecast horizon. Oneof the lessons from the experience of Spain (and Ireland) in the past 1-2 years is that,once the recovery in the economies that weardest

34、hit during the crisis getsunderway, the rebound can be quite strong. Partly for this reason, we expect that growth in Italy will improve but, due to lower potential GDP growth, that the pace of the expansion will be slower than the area-wide average.Decent growth in Sweden and UK, fair in Norway, re

35、lative weakness in SwitzerlandOur central growth forecasts for Europes non-Euro area economies are also littlechanged. We expect decent growth in Sweden and the UK (assuBrexit doesnot take place), moderate growth in Norway and mediocre growth in Switzerland.25 February 2016Page Goldman SachsEuropean

36、 Economics AnalystUK continued growth in central scenario, Brexit poses major risks: We remain optimistic relative to consensus on the prospects for UK GDP growth (our 2016 forecast of 2.5% compares with a Consensus forecast of +2.3%). With the decline in energy prices and a gradual rise in nominal

37、wage growth providing a boost to household real incomes, we expect strong growth in private consumption. However, the possibility of a UK exit from the EU poses a threat to our central growth forecast, raising the possibility of a signicant slowdown in the event of a vote to leave.Sweden benefiting

38、from oil price weakness and past SEK declines: Following estimated growth of +3.4% in 2015, we expect Swedens economic output to expand by +3.5% in 2016 (vs. a Consensus forecast of +3.2%) and by +3.1% in 2017. In common with the Euro area, Sweden is beneting from the combined effects of weaker oil

39、prices and a weaker trade-weighted exchange rate (the Swedish Krona TWI has been broadly stable in the past year but depreciated signicantly in the 12 months to early 2015).Mainland Norway offsetting effects from oil price weakness and NOK weakness: We expect real output in mainland Norway (i.e., ex

40、cluding the oil and gas sector) to expand by +1.1% in 2016 (vs. a Consensus forecast of +1.5%) and by +2.3% in 2017. While the sharp fall in oil prices is having a follow-on negative impact on mainland output, we expect some of this effect to be offset by the impact of Krone depreciation (the Norweg

41、ian Krone TWI has fallen by roughly 9% in the past year).CHF strength dampens Swiss growth: The sharp appreciation of the SwissnnnnFranc following the SNBs decision to abandon its exchange rate capEuro has had a signicantly negative effect on growth over the past year. Wetheexpect this effect to eas

42、e over the forecast horizon. Following estimated growth of +0.7% in 2015, we expect Swiss real GDP to expand by +1.5% in 2016 (in line with the current Consensus) and by +1.6% in 2017.Euro area inflation to turn negative during 2016H1While we expect that the combination of the fall in oil prices, th

43、e rise in the Euro and the weakening of equity prices will have relatively limited effects on growth, theeffects on the near-term ination outlook are likely to be much more substal.Exhibit 6 provides an estimate of the impulse to Euro area quarter-on-quarter headline ination from changes to the six

44、variables set out previously (the Euro effective exchange rate, oil prices, short-term interest rates, scal policy, equity prices and global growth) since our last forecast round. The net effect on the ination outlook from the renewed weakness of oil prices and the recent appreciation of theEuros tr

45、ade-weighted exchange rate is substal. Based on these estimates, thedrag on quarterly inatioages 0.3pp per quarter over the next four quarters,implying that annual headline ination rates in a years time will be around 1pp less than expected in November (all else equal).2.2.As with the estimates for

46、growth, the estimated impact on ination is provided relative to a no shockbenchmark of average ination and we assume that each of the six variables remains unchanged atcurrent/trend levels. We implicitly make the (unrealistic) assumptions that developments in all six variables represent independent,

47、 exogenous shocks to the Euro area economy and that everything else is equal.25 February 2016Page 5Goldman SachsEuropean Economics AnalystIn response to these developments, we revised our Euro area ination forecasts materially lower in mid-January (Exhibit 7). We now expect Euro area headline inatio

48、n to fall back below zero in the second quarter reaching a trough of - 0.6%yoy in May before rising slowly in the subsequent months as a result of positive base effects. For 2016 as a whole, we expect headline ination to average - 0.2%yoy, well below the latest Consensus forecast (+0.8%yoy) and even

49、 further below the ECBs December forecast (+1.0%yoy). We expect the ECB to announce signicant revisions to its near-term outlook for headline ination when it updates its forecasts on 10 March.Exhibit 6: The net effect of shocks in the past three months to theExhibit 7: We expect Euro area inflation

50、to fall in the co monthsinflation outlook is substalShock impulse on qoq ination relative to benchmark (static analysis)Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver AnalyticsSource: ECB, Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchThe revisions to the ECBs ination forecast at the (more policy

51、 relevant) 1-2 year horizon are likely to be more moderate. While headline ination appears set to remain weak and volatile, core ination in the Euro area has remained in a relatively tight range between 0.6% and 1.1% for the past three years (Exhibit 7, again). We expect this relative stability to c

52、ontinue and think the risk of sustained deation in the Euro area as a whole remains small.Two factors are worth emphasising in this regard:n Low but positive unit labour cost (ULC) inflation: Unemployment in the Euro area remains much higher than in the US and the UK but, despite the divergence in u

53、nemployment rates, unit labour cost developments have been comparable across all three economies in recent years, and consistent with low but positive ination (Exhibit 8).3.n Less scope for margin compression: In recent years, corporate margins in the Euro area (and in Germany, in particular) have d

54、eclined from the unusually highlevels seen prior to the nal crisis. With margins having declined below theirlong-term average, there is less scope for continued margin compression.3.In part, this may reect the segmentation of Euro area national labour markets and the divergence ofemployment performa

55、nce among them.25 February 2016Page 6Goldman SachsEuropean Economics AnalystNevertheless, given the ECBs concerns over the impact of persistently weak ination on long-term ination expectations, the return of headline ination rates intonegative territory in the comonths is likely to have importmplica

56、tions forthe policy debate within the ECB Governing Council (Exhibit 9).Exhibit 8: ULC inflation is not notably weaker in Euro area, despite higher unemploymentWhole economy unit labour costs (%, yoy)Exhibit 9: Market-based expectations of inflation have declined steadily over timeSource: ECB, BLS,

57、Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchSource: ECB, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchExhibit 10 sets out our ination forecasts for Europe. We expect core ination in the Euro area to rise very slowly over the next 2-3 years, from a little below 1% in 2015, to 1.0% in 2016, 1.3% in 2017 before settling in a 1-2% range in 2018-2019.Headline ination rises above core ination in 2018 and 2019 because our commodity price forecasts and the forwards both